PFR Originals News & Rumors

Extension Candidate: Denzel Ward

April 11th, 2021 at 9:43am CST by Rory Parks

The Browns returned to the playoffs in 2020 after a 17-year absence, and their top two picks of the 2018 draft — QB Baker Mayfield and CB Denzel Ward — played pivotal roles in the team’s success. Under the youthful leadership of general manager Andrew Berry and head coach Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland has the opportunity to be a competitive outfit for the foreseeable future.

But success in the draft and on the field generally leads to big-money extensions for a team’s homegrown talent, and the decision as to whether to authorize such extensions is not always a straightforward one. For instance, although Mayfield bounced back nicely from a disastrous 2019 campaign and posted a top-10 QBR of 72.2 last season, the Browns may make him prove himself again in 2021 before getting serious about extension talks.

Ward, meanwhile, has battled health issues since he entered the league. He has missed at least three games due to injury in each of his first three professional seasons — we’re not counting the games he missed last year due to COVID-19 — and when considering the price tag for top cornerbacks, even “minor” injuries become significant.

On the other hand, his performance between the lines has been everything the Browns could have hoped for when they made him the No. 4 overall pick in 2018. He earned Pro Bowl honors in his rookie season, and despite the missed time due to injury, he has tallied 40 passes defensed and seven interceptions — including one pick-six — in his young career.

Cleveland’s secondary as a whole was hit hard by injury (and the pandemic) last year. In addition to Ward’s ailments, rookie safety Grant Delpit and second-year CB Greedy Williams missed the entire season, and CB Kevin Johnson also missed time. That meant that DC Joe Woods was forced to run zone coverage schemes for the most part, and Ward’s skill-set is probably better-suited to man coverage.

Still, Ward finished as Pro Football Focus’ 23rd-best corner out of 121 qualifiers, and PFF gave him a strong coverage grade. The team added former Rams DBs John Johnson and Troy Hill in free agency this offseason, which should give Woods a little more flexibility and which should, in turn, have a positive trickle-down effect on Ward. But while Hill has experience playing on the boundaries, the Browns may prefer to deploy him in the slot, and it’s still unclear what the team has in Williams at this point. So other than Ward, there are no certainties in terms of outside-the-numbers CBs, and even if there were, it would be hard to imagine Berry & Co. letting a premium talent at a premium position get away.

Of course, a new contract will be costly. The $20MM average annual value that Jalen Ramsey recently pulled down from the Rams is the current pacesetter for the CB market, and while Ward might not be able to hit that number at this point, he certainly has an argument for at least an $18MM AAV. A five-year pact worth between $90MM-$95MM and around $40MM or so in full guarantees sounds about right if the two sides are to come to terms anytime soon.

For now, there have been no reports of extension talks. The Browns will certainly exercise Ward’s fifth-year option for 2022 — which checks in at a fully-guaranteed $13.294MM — and perhaps player and team will start to discuss a longer-term arrangement over the summer.

NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Alabama WR Jaylen Waddle

April 10th, 2021 at 7:54pm CST by Zachary Links

If you haven’t been tracking Jaylen Waddle for the last three years, you could be forgiven. Early on in his career, Waddle was largely overshadowed by the likes of Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III – two eventual first-round picks. After they left Tuscaloosa, Waddle was primed to assert himself as Bama’s top wide receiver in 2020.

In his first six games, Waddle went off for 28 catches and 591 yards — good for 21.2 yards per catch on average — plus four touchdowns. He also kept up his strong work in the return game, giving evaluators even more opportunities to gawk at his speed on film. Unfortunately, his final return of the regular season came against Tennessee, couching his season up until the National Championship game against Ohio State.

Despite the ill-timed injury, Waddle remains one of this year’s most highly-coveted prospects. His injured ankle even kept him from running the 40-yard-dash for scouts this year — that hasn’t slowed him down either. Waddle was clocked at 4.37 seconds before he even stepped foot on campus. And, depending on who you ask, he could even be a shade faster than Ruggs on the field. Ruggs, for reference, clocked a 4.27-second 40-time last year.

With explosiveness and sustained speed down the field, it would almost be too easy to compare Waddle to Chiefs star Tyreek Hill. Almost. Both players have the ability to wreck one-on-one coverage with their speed and, like Hill, Waddle can accelerate, stop on a dime, and throttle his way past the coverage. Former teammate Najee Harris – viewed by many as the best running back in the 2021 class — also sees the similarities.

“He’s small but he’s dynamic. He’s explosive. Really really explosive,” Harris told ESPN’s Adam Schefter. “The closest thing to Tyreek Hill. You gotta see him in person. How he plays how he gets in and out of cuts. How he stops and goes 60 [mph] right away.”

The knocks on Waddle are few and far in-between. Many of them were out of his control. Waddle never put together a full season like LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase did in 2019 (1,780 receiving yards and 20 receiving touchdowns, both SEC records), but he was buried behind an All-Star cast in 2018 and 2019. Then, 2020’s ankle injury effectively ended his year. His hands aren’t quite as reliable as Chase’s either. Still, Waddle has already crossed a lot of the “cons” off of his list – concerned chatter about his catching ability and upper body strength have turned into mere whispers. Blessed with serious wheels, route running, and tons of tools to make opponents miss, Waddle has cemented himself as this year’s WR2 or WR3, depending on how you rate him vs. ‘Bama teammate DeVonta Smith.

Chase ran away with the WR1 crown at his pro day when he posted a 4.38-second 40-yard dash, a number that even surprised the LSU star (“I was going for a low 4.4,” Chase said.) If Chase’s absolute ceiling is No. 4 overall after three QBs come off the board, then Waddle’s should top out at the Bengals’ No. 5 pick. After that, it’s the Dolphins at No. 6 and the Lions at No. 7, two clubs that want/need a game-changing WR like Waddle. Even with lots of variables in play, it’s hard to imagine Waddle waiting past the top ten.

PFR’s NFL Glossary: Offset Language

April 10th, 2021 at 5:04pm CST by Zachary Links

Ever since the 2011 Collective Bargaining Agreement, rookie contracts have been fairly regimented. Now, negotiations between teams and draft picks go pretty smoothly, with few – if any – unsigned rookies by the time training camp starts.

These days, if there is haggling, it’s usually due to offset language. Offset language relates to what happens to a player’s salary if he’s cut during the first four years of his career, while he’s still playing on his rookie deal. For the top 15 to 20 picks in the draft, those four-year salaries are fully guaranteed, even if a player is waived at some point during those four seasons. For example, if a player has $4MM in guaranteed money remaining on his contract and is cut, he’ll still be owed that $4MM.

However, if a team has written offset language into the contract, that club can save some money if and when the player signs with a new team. For example, if that player who had $4MM in guaranteed money left on his contract signs with a new club on a $1MM deal, his old team would only be on the hook for $3MM, with the new team making up the difference. If there’s no offset language on that first deal, the old team would continue to be on the hook for the full $4MM, and the player would simply earn an additional $1MM from his new club.

In 2015, Marcus Mariota‘s camp went back-and-forth with the Titans until the two sides finally agreed to partial offset language in late July. In 2016, Joey Bosa’s holdout dominated headlines until the linebacker inked his deal on August 29th. In most cases, a lack of offsets for a player simply depends on which team drafted him — clubs like the Rams and Jaguars traditionally haven’t pushed to include offsets in contracts for their top picks, even in an era where most other teams around the league do.

Last year, Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and Panthers defensive lineman Derrick Brown were the first Round 1 picks to sign and they agreed to offset language. It’s impossible to gauge how this year’s top stars will approach those talks, but offsets rarely come into play for elite prospects – few top picks flame out badly enough to get cut inside of four years. And even in those rare instances, if a player has performed poorly enough to be cut in his first few years, he likely won’t land a big-money deal elsewhere, so offset language wouldn’t help his old club recover more than the league minimum.

PFR Poll: Which QB Will Be Traded Next?

April 10th, 2021 at 12:23pm CST by Ben Levine

The NFL’s quarterback carousel continued earlier this week when the Jets finally traded former third-overall pick Sam Darnold to the Panthers. The 23-year-old became the fifth quarterback to switch teams via trade this offseason:

While teams have already shifted focus from veteran acquisitions to the draft, that doesn’t mean we won’t see another QB trade. Sure, it takes two to tango, and a number of teams already have already solidified their quarterback situation (or they will in the upcoming draft). Still, teams like the Patriots, Broncos, Bears, Saints, and Washington could be in the market for a signal-caller depending on what happens with the draft.

So who could be available? We know one name is definitively on the block: Teddy Bridgewater. Following the Panthers’ acquisition of Darnold, the front ofice gave the 2020 starter permission to seek a trade. It seems like a trade is inevitable, with reports indicating that multiple teams have reached out to Carolina about the veteran. Many of these teams are apparently eyeing Bridgewater as a backup, which could complicate a trade if the veteran is hunting for a suitor who will let hm start. Further, interested teams would also like to rework Bridgewater’s contract, adding another hurdle to negotiations.

It was widely assumed that Jimmy Garoppolo would be on the trade block after the 49ers made a blockbuster trade for the No. 3 pick. However, the organization appears to be playing hard ball. After declaring that the veteran would be sticking around San Francisco for the 2021 season, the 49ers are reportedly seeking a first-rounder for Jimmy G. This could obviously just be leveraging via the media, and the 49ers will be hard pressed to find a team that will give up that type of draft capital and inherit Garoppolo’s hefty deal. Either way, the rumors will surely persist, especially if Garoppolo’s former team, the Patriots, roll into the regular season with Cam Newton and Jarrett Stidham as their top quarterbacks.

What about Gardner Minshew? The former sixth-rounder took a step back from a team-record perspective in 2020, but he still proved to be a capable game manager, connecting on 66.1-percent of his passes and tossing 16 touchdowns vs. only five interceptions. The Jaguars will presumably take Trevor Lawrence will the first-overall pick in the upcoming draft, relegating Minshew to a backup role. Minshew has a low salary and plenty of upside, so Jacksonville won’t just give him away. However, if a team is willing to pony up for the mustached quarterback, the Jaguars will probably listen. For what it’s worth, we heard back in March that the Jaguars weren’t shopping Minshew “at this point” in time.

Those three quarterbacks appear to be the most realistic trade targets, but there are plenty of additional quarterbacks who have lingered in trade rumors. Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson were the biggest names thrown around this offseason, but it’s unlikely either player is dealt any time soon (Wilson because he’s a franchise quarterback and the Seahawks aren’t dumb, Watson because of the ongoing sexual misconduct allegations against him (and the Texans prior refusal to trade him despite demands)). Some less sexy names include Nick Foles, who could be displaced in Chicago after the Bears signed Andy Dalton. Matt Ryan, Derek Carr, and Drew Lock have also been tossed around, but it’s unlikely any of those players switch teams.

So that leads to our question: who will be the next quarterback to be traded? Let us know if we forgot anyone in the comments.

This Date In Transactions History: Rams Trade Brandin Cooks To Texans

April 9th, 2021 at 11:52am CST by Zachary Links

Today marks the one-year anniversary of the Rams trading Brandin Cooks to the Texans. The deal netted the Rams a second-round pick in exchange for the wide receiver and a future fourth-round choice. For Cooks, it was familiar territory — this was the third trade of his career.

Cooks, who was still only 26 at the time, was well-traveled at this point. Two years prior, the Patriots sent him to L.A. (along with a fourth-rounder) for a first-round choice and a sixth-rounder. And, in 2017, the Saints traded Cooks to the Patriots for a first- and third-round pick. It’s not unusual for players on the NFL fringe to cycle through teams, but Cooks had the rare distinction of being simultaneously desirable and very much tradable.

In 2018, his first year with the Rams, Cooks managed a career-high 1,204 receiving yards. Things were going well for all parties in L.A. — Cooks helped the Rams reach the Super Bowl and he had a contract to match his performance, a pricey five-year, $81MM extension with $50.5MM locked in. Then, in 2019, Cooks capped his year with just 635 yards. The most troubling part was that he suffered yet another concussion, which sidelined him for two games.

Cooks’ talent has never been in question, but his health history was another story. The Rams were now in a difficult spot, with millions and millions of dollars committed to Cooks through 2023. The deal left them with $21.8MM in dead money and less draft capital than they gave up just a couple years prior. The Texans got Cooks and the rest of his contract — an $8MM base salary in 2020, followed by $12MM, $13MM, and $14MM through 2023.

The Rams went on to turn that pick into Van Jefferson. The wide receiver out of Florida was used sparingly in the regular season, catching 19 balls for 220 yards and one touchdown. All in all, he was targeted just 31 times with 118 special teams appearances. On the plus side, he flashed in the playoffs with six grabs for 46 yards and one TD vs. the Packers. Aaron Rodgers & Co. came out on top, but Jefferson gave a glimpse of what could be in store.

Cooks went on to turn 81 receptions into 1,150 yards and six touchdowns for the Texans. In an otherwise tumultuous year, he was a bright spot. Now, they’ll count on him and Randall Cobb to keep the chains moving with Will Fuller out of the picture. If Cooks stays concussion-free, the trade will go down as a clear win for the Texans, even as their quarterback situation remains murky.

NFL Draft Prospect Profile: North Dakota State QB Trey Lance

April 7th, 2021 at 10:40am CST by Zachary Links

After just 17 starts at North Dakota State, quarterback Trey Lance is ready to turn pro. He also barely played in 2020 after NDSU nixed the season, but his tremendous 2019 season is still fresh in everyone’s minds. He may be green, and he’s yet to celebrate his 21st birthday, but Lance figures to be one of the first names called in the 2021 draft.

Lance arrived on campus in 2018 and attempted just one pass as a frosh. In 2019, he ascended to the starting job and put himself squarely on the NFL radar. As a sophomore, Lance threw for 2,786 yards, 28 touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Meanwhile, NDSU took full advantage of his running ability as he racked up 1,110 rushing yards off of 169 carries, good for a 6.5 average per attempt. In 2020, he led the Bison to a 39-28 comeback victory in their lone game against Central Arkansas. Despite the rust, he rattled off 143 rushing yards on 15 carries. He also threw the first interception of his collegiate career, but that can certainly be forgiven.

Aside from Trevor Lawrence, many feel that Lance is the most NFL-ready QB of this year’s bunch. Still shy of legal drinking age, Lance is known for putting in lots of film room time, and that showed throughout his ’19 season. Just a few months ago, Lance was seen as a second-tier QB, a consolation prize for middle-of-the-order teams missing out on Lawrence, BYU’s Zach Wilson and Ohio State’s Justin Fields. Now, he’s very much in the same conversation.

So, where will Lance land? Some saw him as a fit for the 49ers after their move up to No. 3, but there’s increasing chatter that they’ll go with Alabama’s Mac Jones instead. Unlike Lance, Jones was able to provide lots of footage for evaluators last year as he set a new national record by completing 77.4% of his throws. He lacks the mobility of Lance, but the Niners may see him as the safer choice of the two.

For the other QB-needy teams on the board, Lance offers tantalizing upside. If Lance can adjust to the pro game and work from the pocket a bit more, the sky is the limit. Falcons GM Terry Fontenot probably recognizes that, which is why he’s reportedly hesitant to pass up a Matt Ryan successor at No. 4. And, if the Falcons trade the pick, there’s a good chance that the team moving up will be eyeing Lance. Right now, it seems like the No. 3 pick is Lance’s ceiling. And, while floors are always hard to peg, it would be a surprise to see him get past No. 7. If the Lions don’t use that pick to take Jared Goff‘s successor, another team could slide in to get their preferred passer.

This Date In Transactions History: Falcons Acquire Eric Metcalf

April 6th, 2021 at 11:02pm CST by Sam Robinson

The Falcons assembled their premier receiving corps when Julio Jones joined Roddy White in 2011, and their Jones-Calvin Ridley duo currently resides as one of the NFL’s best. However, the franchise did piece together an intriguing cadre of aerial weapons during the mid-1990s. That crew achieved a rare NFL feat.

Atlanta rounded out that receiving corps on April 6, 1995. Twenty-six years ago, the Falcons finalized a trade that brought Eric Metcalf over from the Browns. The then-Bill Belichick-coached team agreed to a high-profile pick-swap deal, a well Belichick has gone to frequently with the Patriots, to send the all-purpose threat to Atlanta. The Falcons sent the No. 10 overall pick to the Browns for Metcalf and No. 26. This trade ended up impacting the NFL into the 2010s; the ultimate winner of this deal did not yet exist when the transaction was finalized.

While Metcalf was technically a running back in Cleveland, the Browns used him in several capacities. The 1989 first-round pick made an impact out of the backfield, as an outlet option and, perhaps most significantly, as a lethal return specialist in six Browns seasons. But Cleveland opted to part with its athletic chess piece to move up 16 draft slots.

Atlanta moved Metcalf to wide receiver, teaming him with 1994 free agent acquisition Terance Mathis and homegrown talent Bert Emanuel. Although the Falcons’ Jeff George trade did not end up working out, the strong-armed quarterback helped the Metcalf-Mathis-Emanuel group become the NFL’s second wide receiver trio that saw each of its members surpass 1,000 yards in a season. While the Air Coryell Chargers were the first to have three 1,000-yard pass catchers, Kellen Winslow was a tight end. Only four wideout trios have gone 1,000-1,000-1,000 — 1989 Washington, the ’95 Falcons, the 2004 Colts and ’08 Cardinals.

Metcalf enjoyed by far his most productive receiving season in 1995, catching 104 passes for 1,189 yards and eight touchdowns. Despite having never played the position full-time as a pro, Metcalf led his new team in receiving. That Falcon edition made the playoffs at 9-7, losing to the Packers in the first round. June Jones‘ pass-heavy offense was not as productive in 1996, when the Falcons released George in-season and went 3-13, and Metcalf joined the Chargers in free agency the following year. Metcalf earned first-team All-Pro honors as a returner in his lone San Diego season and played until 2002.

As for the draft choices exchanged, the Browns — in their final draft before morphing into the Ravens — traded out of No. 10, moving down to No. 30. The 49ers climbed up to draft wide receiver J.J. Stokes. With the Browns relocating to Baltimore in 1996, they did not reap this trade’s primary benefit. In their first draft, the Ravens used the additional Browns-obtained first-rounder (No. 26 in 1996) to draft Ray Lewis. With its No. 30 overall pick in ’95, Cleveland selected linebacker Craig Powell. The Falcons chose safety Devin Bush 26th in 1995. Bush played four Falcons seasons, with his final Atlanta game being Super Bowl XXXIII; his son became a Steelers first-round pick in 2019.

PFR Poll: Will The 49ers Trade Jimmy Garoppolo?

April 5th, 2021 at 11:27am CST by Zachary Links

There’s an old saying in the business world: “Don’t tell them ‘no.’ Tell ’em how much it’ll cost.” That seems to be the 49ers’ approach when it comes to Jimmy Garoppolo. There’s at least some level of interest in the quarterback, but the asking price has been set at a first-round pick, according to one recent report. Meanwhile, ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler has heard similar chatter of a first or high-second round pick (h/t Bleacher Report).

The Niners only gave up a second-round pick for Garoppolo back when his stock was at its peak, so it seems unlikely that any team will be willing to cough up more. Last year, the Niners went 3-3 in the six games he started, and Garoppolo completed 67.1% of his passes for 1,096 yards and seven touchdowns against five interceptions. That’s a far cry from his best work two years ago, when he was under center for the Super Bowl. In 2019, he racked up 3,978 passing yards and 27 touchdowns (with 13 INTs) en route to the NFC title.

Even after trading up to the No. 3 pick, the Niners are insistent that Garoppolo will be in the fold for 2021. Beyond that, the job will probably belong to one of this year’s top QB prospects — Mac Jones, Justin Fields, Trey Lance, or, perhaps, BYU standout Zach Wilson, if he gets past the Jets.

No one’s going to send a first-round pick to SF for Garoppolo – we can say that with confidence. Would a QB-needy team offer a third-round pick for him? That seems possible, especially since the Patriots are far from sold on Cam Newton as their starter. The Bears could also give that some thought, even though they insist that Andy Dalton will be their guy in 2021.

Assuming that no one meets the 49ers’ initial ask, do you envision the Niners trading Garoppolo between now and September? Cast your vote below (link for app users) and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.

NFL Draft Prospect Profile: BYU QB Zach Wilson

April 5th, 2021 at 9:57am CST by Zachary Links

Could Zach Wilson leapfrog Trevor Lawrence as the No. 1 overall pick in April? No, probably not. New Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer has taken a refreshingly candid approach to the draft process in recent weeks, telling everyone within earshot that the Clemson star will be his quarterback of the future.

“I’d have to say that’s the direction we’re going. I’ll leave that up to the owner when we make that decision official. But I’m certainly not stepping out of line that that’s certainly the direction we’re headed,” Meyer said. “Trevor checks all the boxes, you know?”

Lawrence may be one of the best QB prospects — or pro talents, period — in recent draft memory. Still, Wilson offers lots of promise in his own right. He’s fresh off of a breakout season in which he completed 73.5% of his throws, good for second in the nation. Meanwhile, he placed third with 33 passing touchdowns and lobbed only three interceptions. And, for good measure, Wilson added ten rushing touchdowns in his 12 starts.

Wilson’s mobility is a big part of his appeal. In fact, some see a bit of Johnny Manziel in him — which is not necessarily the pro comparison that young QBs want. Like Manziel, Wilson has shown the ability to escape pressure. He also comes from an affluent background, and draft evaluators tend to nitpick everything about players this time of year. According to Adam Schefter of ESPN, the similarities are strictly limited to his highlight reel.

“I’ve heard Zach Wilson is an incredible kid, but again, [he’s] a little bit new on the scene,” Schefter said (via KNBR). “Have to vet it out, check him out, make more calls, but I know people that know him pretty well, and they speak pretty highly about him.”

The other major knock on Wilson comes from his so-so decision making in 2019, a season that was cut short by thumb surgery. But, last year, Wilson kept the turnovers to a minimum and consistently found the open man. He’ll be asked to work in the pocket more frequently at the pro level, but his ability to extend the play when the pocket collapses will still serve him well in the NFL. At his pro day, the BYU product showcased that for all to see, intentionally throwing a pass across his body and nailing his target dead-on.

Some critics may also wonder about Wilson’s durability — aside from the aforementioned thumb injury, Wilson underwent thumb surgery after his frosh season. Now, he’ll be facing bigger, stronger, faster defenders with just ~210 lbs on his 6’2″ frame. Still, no prospect is perfect (not even Lawrence), and Wilson profiles as one of the very best QBs in this year’s class.

Right now, just about everyone has Wilson ticketed for the Jets at No. 2. It’s not quite as certain as Lawrence going No. 1, however. Mac Jones, Justin Fields, and Trey Lance are also in the mix, but it seems more likely that those will be the names available for the 49ers. Even if the Jets throw a curveball, we’d be surprised to see him slide much further.

PFR’s NFL Glossary: Supplemental Draft

April 3rd, 2021 at 6:25pm CST by Zachary Links

The NFL’s supplemental draft allows teams to select players who, for one reason or another, were barred from entering the regular draft in the spring. When a team selects a player in the supplemental draft, they forfeit the corresponding pick in the regular draft next year. For example, if a team selects a player in the sixth round of the supplemental draft this year, they will have to give up their 2021 sixth round selection.

In the past, teams have found gems in the supplemental draft. In 2011, the Raiders selected Ohio State quarterback and future standout NFL receiver Terrelle Pryor. In 2012, the Browns used a second round pick to take the talented and troubled Josh Gordon. Other supplemental draft alums include quarterback Bernie Kosar (Browns, 1985), wide receiver Cris Carter (Eagles, 1987), running back Bobby Humphrey (Broncos, 1989), wide receiver Rob Moore (Jets, 1990), nose tackle Jamal Williams (Chargers, 1998), and linebacker Ahmad Brooks (Bengals, 2006).

There were no players taken in the supplemental draft in 2016 or 2017, but the Giants snapped the cold streak when they selected Western Michigan cornerback Sam Beal in the third round of the 2018 draft. Then, in the sixth round, the Redskins tapped Virginia Tech cornerback Adonis Alexander. In 2019, defensive back Jalen Thompson (Cardinals) was the only player to hear his name called.

Last year, due the pandemic, the NFL cancelled the supplemental draft altogether. The draft is likely to return in 2021, likely on the week of July 12th.

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