PFR Originals News & Rumors

This Date In Transactions History: Raiders Extend OL Gabe Jackson

Four years ago today, it looked like Gabe Jackson could be playing for the Raiders for the rest of his career. Of course, as we’ve learned many times, we shouldn’t assume that a player will stick with a team for the entirety of his extension.

On June 29, 2017, the Raiders inked the offensive lineman to a five-year, $56MM deal, a pact that included $26MM in guaranteed money. The deal was expected to keep Jackson with the team through at least the 2022 campaign.

The 2014 third-round was an immediate contributor after joining the organization, and up to the signing of the extension, Jackson had started 44 of his 45 regular season appearances. The Mississippi State product didn’t always grade out as one of the best offensive guards; in 2016, he was only ranked as Pro Football Focus’ 22nd-best player at his position. However, Jackson provided the offensive line with more consistency and continuity, something that was especially important after the organization inked quarterback Derek Carr to a massive extension only weeks before.

With the signing, the Raiders locked themselves into two of the highest-paid offensive guards in the NFL, as the team had previously signed Kelechi Osemele to a five-year, $58.5MM contract. Jackson’s $56MM pact ranked behind only two offensive guards: Bengals’ Kevin Zeitler (five years, $60MM) and Osemele. Jackson was also second to Zeitler’s $31.5MM in guarantees.

After signing the extension, Jackson didn’t see a sudden turnaround in production, as PFF still ranked him as a middling offensive guard. However, Jackson did see a turnaround in his reliability…in other words, he started to miss more and more time due to injuries. He missed nine games for the Raiders between the 2017 and 2019 seasons, and the front office started shopping the lineman during the 2020 draft.

They didn’t find a taker for Jackson, and the veteran managed to appear in all 16 games for the Raiders in 2020, making it the first time the lineman had accomplished that feat since 2016. Still, the Raiders were hoping to somewhat revamp their offensive line this offseason, and we learned in early March that the Raiders were planning on releasing Jackson after he refused a pay cut.

However, Las Vegas found a trade partner at the last second, and the team shipped Jackson to the Seahawks for a fifth-round pick (which eventually transformed into Illinois cornerback Nate Hobbs). The Seahawks subsequently extended Jackson to a three-year, $22.58MM deal.

The Raiders did manage to get 55 starts out of Jackson after he signed his new deal, including 40 starts that were played under the extension. Still, the Raiders were surely expecting more when they inked the lineman on this date in 2017.

This Date In Transactions History: Cam Newton Joins The Patriots

The Cam Newton era in New England effectively began one year ago today. On June 28, 2020, we learned that the former MVP was signing a one-year deal with the Patriots. While the contract was officially inked on July 8, we’re going to count today as the one-year anniversary.

Newton dealt with a number of injuries during his final seasons with the Panthers, including a 2018 shoulder relapse and 2019 Lisfranc surgery. After barely playing during that 2019 campaign, the Panthers ended up pivoting to Teddy Bridgewater, making their former first-overall pick expendable. The Panthers were unable to find a trade partner for Newton, and they ultimately cut the veteran in late March. Several months later, Newton finally found a suitor in the Patriots, who signed him to an inexpensive, prove-it deal.

Newton was entering a tricky situation with the Patriots. For starters, he was replacing a legendary quarterback in Tom Brady, and it was going to be a major uphill battle for any new signal-caller to somewhat replicate the production and success of the (then) six-time champ. Plus, Newton was limited to only a pair of games in 2019, and instead of getting a full offseason to fully rehab and learn a new system, he lingered in free agency for more than three months. In other words, Newton wasn’t necessarily put in a position to succeed.

Still, with only Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham standing in his way, Newton predictably earned the starting gig. The veteran missed one game while recovering from COVID, but Newton otherwise saw time in 15 games for the Patriots. While the team had a solid 7-8 record with the 2015 MVP under center, Newton’s numbers were disappointing. He still showed his usual talent on the ground, collecting 592 rushing yards and 12 scores (plus a receiving touchdown), but he only threw for 2,657 yards, eight touchdowns, and 10 interceptions.

Following that 2020 performance, many assumed that Newton wouldn’t be in New England in 2021. However, the Patriots ended up re-signing the 32-year-old to a one-year pact that could be worth up to $13.6MM. Plus, following a 2020 season where Newton’s targets were mostly unproven, the team brought in a number of free agent weapons, including Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, Nelson Agholor, and Kendrick Bourne. This time around, it seems that the Patriots were actually putting their veteran in a position to succeed.

Of course, the difference this time around is that Newton faces some formidable competition from first-round quarterback Mac Jones. While it sounds like the Patriots may initially lean on Newton as their starter, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the rookie takes over if (or when) the veteran struggles.

With a year of hindsight, it’s tough to describe the Patriots/Newton pairing as a success. The two sides have a chance to reverse that narrative in 2021, but there’s a better chance that the veteran eventually finds himself as a backup.

This Date In Transactions History: Chiefs’ Tamba Hali Retires

Today marks the three year anniversary of Tamba Hali‘s retirement. The linebacker’s 12-year run with the Chiefs ended earlier that offseason, when the team released him outright. A few months later, he decided against starting over with a new club. 

I just need to continue to work out and do my music,” Hali said. “I don’t want to focus too much on football. I don’t see myself getting back into football. I see myself being involved with the Chiefs somehow, maybe as a specialist being able to teach the guys. I don’t want to lie to myself. I think the time has come.”

Hali began his 2017 season the PUP list and didn’t do much upon his return. The Liberian linebacker appeared in just five games, made zero starts, and did not record a sack. Clearly, that wasn’t in line with his usual work.

Hali left the Chiefs as the team’s No. 2 all-time sacker, behind only Derrick Thomas. The 2006 first-round pick went on to earn five consecutive Pro Bowl nods from 2011-15, notching many of his 89.5 sacks during that stretch. In reality, he should have been a Pro Bowler in 2010, too – that’s when he set a new personal watermark with 14.5 QB takedowns. Unfortunately, his 2016 season wasn’t quite as memorable — Hali nabbed just 3.5 sacks and started only twice.

The 6’3″ edge rusher admitted that he was tempted to return — he was still only 34 and just 10.5 sacks shy of an even 100 sacks. Still, he said he was content with his overall body of work. With that, Hali took to the studio and started training jiu-jitsu under the instruction of Rener Gracie. Now, after rolling around with the likes of Lyoto Machida, Hali has a purple belt to go with the rest of his accolades.

PFR Originals: Patriots, Bucs, Broncos

In case you missed it, here’s a look back at some of our recent originals:

Trade Candidate: Jets LB C.J. Mosley

When C.J. Mosley inked a five-year, $85MM deal with the Jets during the 2019 offseason, the linebacker was expected to lead the team’s defense for at least the next half-decade. He’s certainly looked the part of a defensive stalwart through two games with the organization, collecting nine tackles, a pick-six, and a fumble recovery.

However, Mosley suffered a groin injury that ultimately sidelined him for all but two games during the 2019 season. The veteran ended up opting out of the 2020 campaign, meaning he’s only seen times in two games through two years. The Jets certainly haven’t received a return on their investment, and rival teams believe they may be able to make a move for the former Pro Bowler…we learned back in March that the front office had received calls on Mosley.

To be clear, those reports indicated that the Jets were receiving the trade calls, not necessarily initiating the trade calls. Plus, there haven’t been many developments over the past three-plus months. However, it’s still easy to see a path where the Jets justify moving their former major free agent acquisition, and it’s easy to understand why a rival team would take a chance on the veteran.

From the Jets standpoint, a Mosley trade would be mostly financial. Since he sat out the 2020 season, Mosley still has four years and $56MM left on his deal, including $22MM guaranteed (this remaining commitment is a big reason why Mosley won’t be released any time soon). The Jets aren’t necessarily hurting for money, but as the front office looks to introduce the Zach Wilson/Robert Saleh era, it’d make sense for them to move some future money with the hopes of loading up during future offseasons.

Further, the Jets have a bit of a logjam at the position after the team signed middle linebacker Jarrad Davis to a $5.5MM deal this offseason. The Jets defense is expected to play in a 4-3 scheme, meaning one of Davis or Mosley will either find themselves on the bench or playing (somewhat) out of position at outside linebacker. Sure, Davis probably isn’t the caliber of player who should be pushing a player like Mosley out of the lineup…but we also have no idea what to expect from a player who’s barely seen the field over the past two years.

If the Jets aren’t willing to take a risk on Mosley, why would another team? Well, for starters, the financial ramifications wouldn’t be as severe as you think. The 29-year-old’s 2021 cap hit is only $6MM, so while the future commitments may cause some teams to pause, you could easily see a contender talking themselves into Mosley’s upside (especially if the linebacker has a solid preseason). Plus, the trade costs surely wouldn’t be that high, meaning a team wouldn’t be compromising their future in a deal.

For what it’s worth, Mosley recently indicated that he has no worries about his ability to come back following a two-year absence:

“Yeah, I don’t have any doubts in myself,” he said during an appearance on The Official Jets Podcast (via the team website). “I mean, [Rob Gronkowski] took two years off [only one] and won a Super Bowl, so it is what it is. I’m here, so we’ll let the play do the talking.

“When you’re out for a while, you’re always in your head, thinking, ‘When I get back, how’s it going to feel? Am I going to be able to move like I used to?’ I feel great.”

Mosley has a chance to be a top comeback candidate, or he could emerge as an albatross contract. While the Jets will surely prefer to see the former option, they could ultimately reduce their risk, pivot more toward the future, and trade the linebacker over the next few months.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Kawann Short

He was one of the NFL’s premier defensive tackles across multiple seasons. Now, he stands as one of the very best free agents left on the board. We haven’t heard much about Kawann Short since he was released in February, but the former Panthers star shouldn’t have too much trouble finding his next employer.

Short said “a few teams” reached out over the winter, mostly with interest in one-year deals due to his recent shoulder injuries. That’s a clear red flag, but suitors might feel better knowing that the Panthers have left the door open to a reunion. New GM Scott Fitterer told Short that’d he’d be willing to talk about a new deal — something less than his previous five-year, $80MM pact.

Short, 32, has played in just five games over the past two seasons. He’s torn both of his rotator cuffs in that span, preventing him from doing his usual fine work. Before all of that, Short was a key pillar of the Panthers’ defense. His first nod came in 2015 when he registered eleven sacks. In 2017, he turned in a 7.5-sack season. And, just two years ago, he earned his second Pro Bowl nod.

The veteran won’t match his previous $16MM AAV, but plenty of teams should be willing to put a deal on the table. For starters, there’s the Buffalo—Carolina pipeline; Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott would love to add him to the Bills’ already stacked interior. Alternatively, if former foe Dan Quinn wants to add Short to his defense, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones would surely break out the checkbook. The Seahawks also have a knack for signing big-name vets and a healthy Short would ease the sting of losing Jarran Reed. Though it’s hard to bank on Short’s health and availability, he’d be one heck of a summer addition on a one-year, ~$2MM deal.

Top Remaining Pass Rushers

A team can never have too many pass rushers. Even as quarterbacks around the league try to get the ball out of their hands more quickly, the emphasis that most offenses put on their aerial attacks ensure that quality edge defenders will continue to be among the NFL’s most desirable commodities and, therefore, among the highest earners. As we sit in the middle of the lull between OTAs/minicamp and the start of training camp, let’s take a look at where things stand with a few of the highest-profile pass rushers that are still on the market.

  1. Justin Houston: Houston, one of the most fearsome pass rushers in the league during his heyday with the Chiefs, just finished up a two-year contract with the Colts. He is no longer a First Team All-Pro talent, but he was still plenty productive in Indianapolis, at least from a raw statistic standpoint. He averaged 9.5 sacks per year over his two Colts campaigns, and though Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics were not high on his work in 2020 – he received middling grades in both run defense and pass rush – the 32-year-old would be an asset to most any pass rushing corps. The only two teams really connected to him this offseason, the Ravens and the incumbent Colts, both added edge defenders in the first round of this year’s draft (Indy also invested a second-round choice on DE Dayo Odeyingbo). However, Baltimore’s first-round edge, Odafe Oweh, may be a little green, and the club lost Matt Judon and Yannick Ngakoue to free agency this offseason. As such, the Ravens may still be in the mix, and there are surely other teams monitoring the situation.
  2. Melvin Ingram: Like Houston, Ingram is 32, but unlike Houston, he is dealing with some health concerns. The longtime Charger earned three consecutive Pro Bowl nods from 2017-19, but knee problems limited him to just seven games in 2020. In those seven contests, Ingram failed to record a single sack, and given the lack of reporting on his knee, it’s fair to wonder if he is 100% healthy. He took a pre-draft visit with the Chiefs, and KC might still be interested, especially given Frank Clark’s recent legal trouble. Ingram also visited with the Dolphins after the draft, and while Miami selected uber-talented edge defender Jaelan Phillips with the No. 18 overall pick, the club also released LB and locker room favorite Kyle Van Noy. Plus, Phillips has a troubling medical history of his own, so there could be room in South Beach for another established pass rusher with leadership abilities. It is encouraging that Ingram’s PFF pass-rushing score of 76.3 was a top-20 mark, even if the sample size of snaps was comparatively small.
  3. Everson Griffen: Griffen’s free agency stay in 2020 lasted until August, when he inked a one-year deal with the Cowboys. Even though Dallas was still very much in the running for the historically weak NFC East, the club dealt Griffen to the Lions in advance of the trade deadline. The four-time Pro Bowler tallied six sacks across 14 games split between Dallas and Detroit, earning a 73.6 pass-rushing mark from PFF in the process (good for 25th out of 108 qualifiers). Now 33, Griffen is probably best utilized as a situational pass rusher at this point, but he could do well in such a role. While there has been no reported interest in his services this year, his recent history suggests that he is content to wait until late summer for the right opportunity to present itself.
  4. Olivier Vernon: Vernon, who will turn 31 in October, came to the Browns in 2019 as part of the blockbuster Odell Beckham trade. He lost six games to injury in his first Cleveland season and managed only 3.5 sacks. He was a candidate to be traded or released last offseason as the team flirted with Jadeveon Clowney, but ultimately he agreed to a paycut to remain with the Browns for 2020, the last year of his previous contract. He picked up nine sacks in 14 games – he has not played a full 16-game slate since 2016 – and while three of those sacks came against an injury-ravaged Eagles O-line, advanced metrics continue to be high on him. Pro Football Focus considered him the 20th-best edge player in the league last year, a grade that incorporated identical (and strong) 71.6 marks for his run defense and his pass rushing acumen. Unfortunately, he suffered a torn Achilles in the regular season finale, which is probably why there have been no reports of interest in him to date (and why he is not higher on this list). Depending on his prognosis, he could be an intriguing late summer or in-season add for any number of clubs.
  5. Bruce Irvin: Irvin suffered a torn ACL in Week 2 of the 2020 season, which he and the Seahawks had hoped would represent a successful second stint in Seattle. The ‘Hawks made him the No. 15 overall pick of the 2012 draft, which was generally viewed as a reach at the time, but the West Virginia product has put together a lengthy and productive NFL career. In his lone season with the Panthers in 2019, Irvin posted a career-high 8.5 sacks, and before his two-game campaign last year, he hadn’t posted a single-season sack total of less than 5.5 since his second pro season in 2013. At 33, he is the oldest player on this list, but assuming he has not faced any setbacks in his recovery, he should be ready to roll by the start of the 2021 season, or close to it. He might have a hard time getting much by way of guaranteed money, but he should certainly have an opportunity to continue his playing career if he wants to. But he may not want to. In March, Irvin posted a tweet that said, “I think it’s time,” which many obviously construed to be a hint that he was hanging up the cleats. There hasn’t been anything concrete, though, so his playing status is still unclear.

Poll: Who Will Be Broncos’ Primary QB Starter In 2021?

One of the key points in this year’s draft came at No. 9, when the Broncos — who did extensive work on quarterbacks coming in — passed on Justin Fields and Mac Jones to select Patrick Surtain II. Denver passing on potential long-term starters transpired shortly after new GM George Paton acquired Teddy Bridgewater from the Panthers.

With the Broncos choosing Surtain, Bridgewater and Drew Lock reside as their quarterbacks. They split reps down the middle this offseason and will continue this competition during training camp, when chapter six in the franchise’s post-Super Bowl 50 quarterback saga commences in earnest.

The Broncos have started an NFL-most 10 players at quarterback — counting Phillip Lindsay‘s wildcat snap in the COVID-19-created Kendall Hinton game last season — since Peyton Manning‘s March 2016 retirement. Denver has tried free agency (Case Keenum, the second Brock Osweiler acquisition), the trade market (Joe Flacco, Bridgewater) and the draft (Lock, Paxton Lynch) to fill this spot. The Broncos’ most successful post-Manning season — 2016, when the team went 9-7 — came with 2015 seventh-rounder Trevor Siemian at the controls.

Now on his fifth team, Bridgewater is still just 28 and has a history with Paton. The Vikings drafted the Louisville alum in the 2014 first round, when Paton was working as GM Rick Spielman‘s top lieutenant. The former Jets (briefly), Saints and Panthers quarterback has developed a reputation as a risk-averse passer, and Carolina was eager to jettison him after authorizing a three-year, $63MM deal in 2020. The trade agreement knocked Bridgewater’s 2021 cap hit down to just $4.4MM and made him a 2022 free agent. But Bridgewater makes sense for a team with high-end defensive capabilities, which a healthy Broncos iteration possesses.

Bridgewater finished 17th in QBR last season; Lock ranked 29th. The 2019 second-round pick was often erratic during his second NFL season, tying for the NFL INT lead (15) despite missing three games. Lock, however, was thrust into an unusual spot in 2020 — learning a new offense in a virtual offseason — and lacked top receiver Courtland Sutton for most of the season. But, with longtime GM John Elway ceding the reins to Paton, Lock’s grace period is over.

The elephant in this room: will the Broncos’ interest in Aaron Rodgers be relevant soon? The Broncos have lapped the field in Rodgers rumors, with the Raiders — another team Rodgers is open to joiningcomfortable with Derek Carr for the time being. Depending on which skill-position players would be left in Denver after a trade, Rodgers would be equipped with a host of young weapons and a defense positioned to be one of the league’s best.

Even as some around the league wonder if the Packers are bracing for the reigning MVP’s exit, they are holding firm and possess leverage. Despite a return that could feature two or three first-round picks and one or more established young starters, Green Bay is understandably clinging to hopes this situation can be salvaged. The Bengals traded disgruntled QB Carson Palmer in October 2011, after the incumbent had staged a retirement in an effort to leave Cincinnati, and Palmer made nine starts for the Raiders that year. The Broncos likely would be open to a Rodgers in-season arrival, but ideally for them, the Packers begin trade discussions before the season.

Denver passing on Fields also leaves the door open, albeit narrowly, for Deshaun Watson. Twelve years younger than Rodgers, at 25, Watson is believed to be interested in being traded to the Broncos. The team had Watson on its radar as well. Kareem Jackson, conflict of interest notwithstanding, said his former Texans teammate has Denver atop his destination list. The Broncos are believed to prefer Rodgers to Watson, with the latter’s off-field issues undoubtedly factoring into this equation. Watson faces an uncertain future, with the Commissioner’s Exempt List and/or a suspension potentially looming. But if clarity emerges here before the trade deadline, the Broncos — assuming they do not acquire Rodgers — may be back in play for the three-time Pro Bowler.

Will the Broncos end up swinging a trade this year, or will 2022 be the window for such a transaction? Can Bridgewater or Lock seize the job and halt Rodgers and Watson rumors for good? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on this situation in the comments section.

This Date In Transactions History: Marc Bulger Joins The Ravens

Prepared to take Sam Bradford with the first-overall pick, the Rams released long-time quarterback Marc Bulger in 2010. And, eleven years ago today, the Pro Bowler found his next home. On June 23, 2010, Bulger signed a one-year, $3.8MM deal with the Ravens, potentially worth up to $5.8MM via incentives.

Bulger, a 2000 sixth-round pick out of West Virginia, bounced around the NFL during his rookie season, spending time with the Saints and Falcons. He eventually landed on the Rams practice squad, although he was inactive for his entire rookie campaign. He got his first chance to start during the 2002 season following injuries to Kurt Warner and Jamie Martin. Bulger led the team to a 6-0 record to wrap up the year, and he ultimately earned the full-time starting gig in 2003.

Bulger would go on to earn a pair of Pro Bowl nods during his time with the Rams, including a 2006 campaign when he completed 62.9% of his passes for 4,301 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. The Rams inked him to a six-year, $62.5MM extension following that standout campaign, but Bulger’s product dropped soon after. Between 2007 and 2008, Bulger threw more interceptions than touchdowns, and he missed half of the 2009 season due to injury.

Some say Bulger requested his release in 2010, but the Rams had plenty of their own reasons to move on. They had already signed A.J. Feeley to be Bradford’s backup, and releasing Bulger saved the team $8.5MM.

After all of that, Bulger spent nearly three months in free agency limbo. He came to Baltimore to backstop third-year pro Joe Flacco, but he didn’t see the field in 2010. Bulger drew some interest in the spring of 2011, but he ultimately decided to hang up his cleats.

It was an unceremonious ending to a pretty underrated career. Bulger currently sits second on the Rams’ list of all-time passing yard leaders and third in touchdowns. While his tenure in Baltimore was forgettable, Rams fans will remember Bulger’s contribution for years to come.

Trade Candidates: Patriots RB Sony Michel, WR N’Keal Harry

While Bill Belichick has earned praise for his successful late-round picks, many of his championship rosters have been predicated on early-round draft selections. However, a pair of recent first-round picks have disappointed during their tenures in New England, and the young duo could find themselves playing elsewhere come the start of the 2021 season.

Erik Scalavino of the Patriots website recently discussed the trade availability of edge rusher Chase Winovich (something we looked at yesterday), and the writer believes that running back Sony Michel and wideout N’Keal Harry could also be on the trade block:

“[Winovich] and a handful of other Patriots (Sony Michel, N’Keal Harry?) could be potential trade prospects come August or early September. As always, what their value would be is impossible to predict, but summertime trades often involve player-for-player swaps between teams needed to strengthen certain positions. Something to keep in mind.”

Let’s start with New England’s 2018 first-rounder (No. 31 overall). Michel actually looked like he was well worth his draft stock during his rookie year. He collected 981 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns in 13 regular season games, and he added another six scores during the Patriots’ run to a championship. Michel’s counting stats went up a bit in 2019 thanks to him appearing in three more games, but his yards per carry dropped from 4.5 (2018) to 3.7 (2019). Michel spent much of the 2020 campaign on the IR and COVID list, finishing with a career-low 563 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns.

Still, Michel has showed plenty of promise (especially when it matters most), and he’s still only 26 years old. Why would the Patriots shop the young running back? For starters, the former first-rounder is an impending free agent after the Patriots declined to pick up his fifth-year contract. Further, the Patriots haven’t shown any trust in the running back’s ability to catch the ball (26 receptions in 38 games), and it’s clear Michel will never be a three-down back. Considering those two factors, it seems unlikely that Michel will be playing in New England beyond 2021. Finally, New England has plenty of depth at the position; 2019 third-rounder Damien Harris is projected to be the starter, James White will be back in his pass-catching role, and the team also added Rhamondre Stevenson in the fourth round of this year’s draft.

Harry’s spot on the trade block makes a lot more sense. Since being selected with the 32nd pick in the 2019 draft, the Arizona State product has struggled to show much during his limited opportunities. Harry couldn’t find a groove with Tom Brady during his rookie season, finishing with only 105 receiving yards. With much less receiving depth in 2020, Harry only saw a slight uptick in numbers, finishing with 309 yards from scrimmage. The Patriots have done some work improving their pass-catching corps this offseason, including the additions of veterans Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne. This will only slide Harry further down the depth chart.

We haven’t done a whole lot to inspire confidence in either of these young players…so why would rival squads be interested? Well, both players are still on their rookie contracts, making them relatively inexpensive, (potentially) high-upside reclamation projects. Further, while the Patriots have a bit of a roster crunch at each position, there’s no real urgency nor financial advantage to cut the players. If a rival team is interested in Michel and/or Harry, they’ll likely have to acquire the player(s) via trade. New England obviously won’t come close to recouping their first-round investment, but the team could net a late-round pick.

One thing is certain: 2021 will surely be a make-or-break year for both Michel and Harry. The big question is if that crucial season will take place in New England or elsewhere.