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Offseason In Review: Miami Dolphins

August 31st, 2022 at 10:10pm CST by Ben Levine

The post-Ryan Tannehill era in Miami has seen the Dolphins go 24-25 through three seasons. The organization is looking to take that one final step of their rebuild and return to the playoffs in 2022, and their offseason moves indicate that they’re serious about that goal. They have a new coach in Mike McDaniel leading the way, and they made a number of moves (including acquiring wideout Tyreek Hill and offensive tackle Terron Armstead) to put QB Tua Tagovailoa in a position to succeed (despite their continual flirtation with other quarterback options).

The Dolphins distracted a bit from their successful offseason following the fallout from the organization’s tampering investigation, leading to the suspension of owner Stephen Ross. With those distractions now behind them, the team can focus on the upcoming campaign, and the front office is clearing banking on their offseason moves guiding them back to the postseason:

Trades:

  • Acquired WR Tyreek Hill from Chiefs for 2022 first-round pick, 2022 second-round pick, 2022 fourth-round pick, 2023 fourth-round pick, and 2023 sixth-round pick
  • Traded WR DeVante Parker and 2022 fifth-round pick to Patriots for 2023 third-round pick

The Dolphins made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason, winning the Tyreek Hill sweepstakes. Miami had to pay up to acquire the Chiefs Pro Bowl receiver, both in draft capital and in literal dollars. The organization gave up basically a year’s worth of draft picks to acquire Hill, and they later signed him to a four-year, $120MM megadeal with $72.2MM guaranteed. Sure, there’s question marks surrounding Tua Tagovailoa‘s ability to guide a top-end offense, but the acquisition of Hill gives the QB one of the deepest WR corps in the NFL, with the 28-year-old wideout joining a depth chart that also features Jaylen Waddle and Cedrick Wilson. Considering that depth and the obvious downgrade from Patrick Mahomes, it’s tough to see Hill reaching the career-high 111 receptions or 159 targets he saw in Kansas City last year. Still, there’s no denying his talent, and Hill provides a huge upgrade to an offense that’s hoping to take a step forward in 2022.

The Hill trade ultimately cost one of the Dolphins’ longest-tenured players their job. DeVante Parker spent seven seasons in Miami, but the former first-round pick only had one standout season during his stint with the Dolphins (2019, when he finished with 72 receptions, 1,202 yards, and nine touchdowns). Of course, Parker’s lack of production was reflected in the team’s trade haul, as the Dolphins only managed to upgrade a 2022 fifth-round pick to a 2023 third-round pick. There’s a world where the team could have rostered all of Parker, Hill, and Waddle, but the offseason signing of Wilson would have downgraded Parker to a fourth WR at best. The Fins ultimately decided to hand that role to a younger player and acquire an asset for their former top wideout.

Notable signings:

The Dolphins made a big trade to add to their offense, but the team was also active adding receivers and running backs in free agency. Former Cowboys wideout Cedrick Wilson is the most notable of the bunch, especially after the 26-year-old set career-highs across the board in 2021 (45 receptions, 602 yards, six touchdowns). The Dolphins clearly believe he’ll be an important part of the offense, as the front office gave him close to $13MM in guaranteed money. The acquisition of Hill probably means Wilson will be on the second-tier of receiving options in Miami, but that’s probably an ideal role for him, anyway.

The Dolphins also completely revamped their RB depth chart. Chase Edmonds‘ combination of age and recent role probably makes him the favorite to see a consistent role out of the backfield. While James Conner led the Cardinals in carries last season, Edmonds still saw a career-high 116 rushes for 592 yards. Plus, Edmonds has already shown to be a high-end receiving back, having averaged 48 receptions over the past two seasons. Mostert could be Edmonds’ biggest threat to steal rushing work between the 20s, especially considering his experience in Mike McDaniel‘s system. Mostert was limited to only one game last season and eight games the season before, but if he’s able to stay healthy, he’ll undoubtedly have a role. The addition of Alec Ingold probably hints that Miami will run their RBs similarly to how McDaniel operated in San Fransisco; while the free agent acquisition didn’t threaten Kyle Juszczyk‘s place atop the fullback salary hierarchy, the Dolphins were still willing to commit a chunk of money to an often-overlooked position.

The Dolphins’ biggest free agent splash came on the offensive line, as the team committed a whopping $43MM to offensive tackle Terron Armstead. The Dolphins were in dire need of offensive line help; Pro Football Focus ranked the team’s offensive line 32nd in 2021. The three-time Pro Bowler will help in that regard after finishing as one of PFF’s top-10 tackles each season between 2018 and 2020 (including a first-place ranking in 2018). There are a handful of risks, of course. Armstead has missed a game in each of his nine NFL seasons, including nine games missed in 2021 thanks to elbow and knee issues. Still, whenever Armstead does take the field, he will help provide a consistent, veteran presence to an uncertain OL. Connor Williams is another notable add on the offensive line, as the former second-round pick started 51 games for the Cowboys over the past four years. The lineman ranked as PFF’s 10th-best offensive guard in 2021, although he drew 15 flags and found himself in and out of the lineup.

Teddy Bridgewater was brought in to help provide some continuity to the offense if Tua Tagovailoa is forced to miss any time. The eight-year veteran held off Drew Lock to be Denver’s starter last season and had the team at 7-6 before suffering his second concussion of the year. Entering his age-30 season, he’s an elite backup QB, and while the Dolphins have made it clear that they’re all-in on Tua, there’s a world where Teddy could crack the starting lineup if his teammate struggles.

Defensively, the Dolphins added some intriguing depth to their defensive line and secondary. Melvin Ingram was a pass-rushing monster during his time with the Chargers, and he was expected to play a similar role opposite T.J. Watt in Pittsburgh during the 2021 campaign. Things didn’t go according to plan, as Ingram saw a reduced role during his stint with the Steelers. He ended up starting only one of his 10 games, collecting only 10 tackles and one sack. He was traded to Kansas City late in the season and matched his Steelers numbers in only six games. He also started three playoff games for the Chiefs, collecting another two sacks. There’s probably a reason why the veteran saw a drastically reduced role in 2021, and the Dolphins will see if they can squeeze something out of him as a linebacker on defensive coordinator Josh Boyer‘s 3-4 defense.

Trey Flowers signed with the Dolphins earlier this week, returning to the AFC East after three years spent with the Lions. He was a full-time starter in Detroit, but injuries marred the final two years of his tenure there. He’ll provide the team with another rotational pass rusher, especially if he can rediscover the pass-rushing skills he showed during his stint with the Patriots.

Keion Crossen profiles as more of a special teams ace, although he did play a role on Houston’s secondary in 2020. Speaking of special teams, the Dolphins brought in veteran punter Thomas Morstead. The long-time Saints punter spent last season split between the Falcons and Jets, with his 47.2 yards per punt being his best mark since the 2016 season.

Notable losses:

The Dolphins mostly added to their squad this season, with the team’s most notable losses having already been replaced by clear upgrades. Offensively, offensive lineman Jesse Davis is the most notable of the bunch after having started 72 games for the Dolphins over the past five seasons. He was mostly made expendable following the signing of Terron Armstead, but Davis didn’t do himself any favors with his performance last season. He graded as one of PFF’s worst offensive tackles (79th among 83 qualifiers), and he surrendered eight sacks in 1,063 snaps. His release saved the Dolphins a chunk of money, and there was no coincidence that the move immediately followed the Tyreek Hill acquisition (and mega extension).

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Offseason In Review: Chicago Bears

August 29th, 2022 at 11:10pm CST by Sam Robinson

Ryan Pace‘s roster construction featured a championship-caliber defense for a stretch, but the since-fired general manager’s 2017 Mitchell Trubisky trade-up undercut the plan. The team’s 2021 descent led ownership to scrap the Pace-Matt Nagy era, and the team’s new Ryan-Matt partnership gutted the roster this offseason.

The Bears are now amid a full-scale rebuild. They are not alone, with a few other NFC teams trying this. But the first Ryan Poles–Matt Eberflus season will not likely involve playoff contention. It will still center around Pace and Nagy’s final big swing, however, with Justin Fields set to lead a new-look offense.

Trades:

Poles signaled a teardown was coming before the league year began, agreeing to trade the Bears’ All-Pro edge rusher to a team closer to a Super Bowl. This marked a somewhat sobering Chicago conclusion for Mack, who cost the Bears two first-round picks and change — and a defender-record contract — in 2018. Mack largely delivered on the team’s hopes he could be the missing piece, elevating Vic Fangio‘s defensive troops to No. 1 in 2018 DVOA and scoring defense. Chicago was still near that level post-Fangio in 2019, but the franchise’s Trubisky reality had set in by that point. The Mack-centered defensive nucleus was trapped, and no escape hatch emerged.

Mack, 31, still made the Pro Bowl in each of his three healthy Bears seasons, and although his 2019 and ’20 campaigns were not as dominant as 2018, the former Defensive Player of the Year still totaled eight forced fumbles, 17.5 sacks and a safety in 32 games from 2019-20. Mack helped a flawed Bears team make the 2020 playoffs (leading to Trubisky NVP ignominy, but still) and had seen his contract passed up by a few edge defenders.

The Chargers deal gave the Bears a nice asset — the No. 48 overall pick that became safety Jaquan Brisker — but it also saddled the team with $24MM in dead money. Chicago had restructured Mack’s deal in March 2019 and March 2021, pushing money into future years to lead to the bloated 2022 dead-cap hit. Mack, who is signed through 2024 as part of an extension that initially had him under Bears control for seven seasons, will be off Chicago’s books in 2023. The potential Hall of Famer will be looking to bounce back from a foot injury that cost him 10 2021 games; how Mack (76.5 career sacks) fares opposite Joey Bosa will likely determine if he has a Canton case.

While the other Bears trade amounts to a flier, it did bring a former first-round pick to town. A trade candidate for over a year in New England, Harry never caught on in the Patriots’ complex offense. The big-bodied pass catcher — the highest-drafted wideout in Bill Belichick‘s 23-year Patriots tenure — has just 57 receptions for 598 yards and four touchdowns. Harry is going into a contract year, one that will begin late because of his latest injury.

Maladies marred Harry’s Pats career as well, and the ankle surgery he underwent is expected to require a two-month recovery timetable. Harry’s rookie contract may end meekly, barring a late-season resurgence with his new team. The Bears did take several more swings at receiver before trading for Harry, however.

Free agency additions:

Not dissimilar from how Nick Caserio has gone about free agency to start his Texans GM run, Poles bought in bulk this offseason. The rookie Bears boss, however, did try to add a defensive line centerpiece. Larry Ogunjobi had agreed to a three-year, $40.5MM Bears pact that included $26.35MM guaranteed. The team failing the ex-Browns and Bengals D-tackle on his physical sidetracked Poles’ plan, and during the time gap between Ogunjobi’s (March 14) and the deal falling through (March 18), numerous free agents came off the board. The Bears settled into the talent pool’s shallow end in the days and weeks that followed.

The day after Ogunjobi’s deal fell through, some of the money earmarked for the higher-touted inside pass rusher went to Jones, who turned a third-round draft arrival into a three-year run as a Chargers starter. The former Bradley Chubb and B.J. Hill college teammate, at NC State, will be expected to be a Bears starter. He and Ogunjobi’s skillsets differ; Ogunjobi has three seasons that top Jones’ 4.5 career sacks. Pro Football Focus graded Jones as a middle-of-the-road D-tackle in Los Angeles, though he did command the most money among the Bears’ 2022 UFAs.

Another player whose starter status will probably not be threatened by this week’s waiver claims is Muhammad, who comes over after being a Colt during each of Eberflus’ four years as their defensive coordinator. Part of the Saints’ famed 2017 draft class, Muhammad did not catch on with New Orleans but made an impact as a rotational player and then as a starter in Indianapolis. The ex-Miami Hurricane’s six sacks leading Colts defensive ends in 2021 was more a reflection on the team’s struggles at the position, but Muhammad represents a nice stopgap who could be part of Eberflus’ first two Bears D-lines.

While Chicago’s O-line has been in flux throughout the offseason, Patrick’s place as its center has been fairly consistent. Although the sixth-year veteran is not a lock to be ready by Week 1 because of a July thumb break, Patrick has long been expected to be Chicago’s pivot. The former UDFA was a primary Packers starter for the past two seasons, lining up as a first-string center or guard in 28 games in that span, and followed new Bears OC Luke Getsy south. Because of the uncertainty at the other non-Cody Whitehair positions, Patrick’s assimilation will be critical to helping the Bears protect Fields.

Although the Bears have Reiff stationed behind Larry Borom and rookie Braxton Jones at tackle, it would certainly seem they could use the 11th-year vet. Reiff, 33, has started 139 games and has played right tackle for multiple full seasons (2016, 2021). The Jets showed interest in Reiff as well. While the former first-round pick is out of place on this Bears squad, he could serve a purpose by offering veteran protection for Fields. If Reiff is not in the Bears’ starter equation, Fields protection — on the edge, at least — falls on two fifth-round picks.

The Bears’ non-Harry receiver fliers included ex-Getsy charge St. Brown, who looks set to be part of Chicago’s 53-man roster. St. Brown brings size, at 6-foot-5, but little in terms of production. He has caught 16 passes since his 21-reception rookie year (2018). Pringle will also be on the Bears’ final roster. Both players will transition from being tertiary targets in deep receiving crews — Pringle with the then-Tyreek Hill-fronted Chiefs attack — to having paths to starting gigs. Pringle, at least, established some momentum last season. Acquired during Poles’ year as the Chiefs’ college scouting director, Pringle caught 42 passes for 568 yards and five touchdowns in 2021.

Re-signings:

Notable losses:

This front office showed little desire to retain the previous regime’s talent, and no place felt that like Chicago’s defensive line and linebacking units. In addition to Mack, four other starters from 2018’s No. 1 defense — Hicks, Goldman, Nichols, Trevathan — were either released or not re-signed as UFAs. This foreshadowed both Robert Quinn trade rumors and an unexpected impasse with the last bastion of the ’18 troops — Roquan Smith. The Bears entered 2021 with five front-seven starters on mid- or high-level veteran contracts; they are down to one (Quinn) this year.

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Offseason In Review: Jacksonville Jaguars

August 26th, 2022 at 5:30pm CST by Sam Robinson

Coming off one of the worst head-coaching tenures in NFL history, the Jaguars hired former Super Bowl winner Doug Pederson to be their third sideline leader in three years. This franchise has one winning season in the past 14 years, and the past two have represented the deepest valley during the near-10-year Shad Khan ownership era.

Moving on from Urban Meyer will help, but the Jaguars were 1-15 in 2020 as well. The roster has turned over significantly since then, and the Jags spent aggressively in March to upgrade their talent level. As Trevor Lawrence attempts to shake off a rough rookie year — one in which he certainly drew some bad cards to start his career — how much will the moves the Jags made in March and April elevate them from their miserable start to the 2020s?

Free agency additions:

Kirk’s contract did not take the wide receiver market to new heights, but it certainly catalyzed this offseason’s historic run of receiver raises. The No. 2 wideout behind Larry Fitzgerald and then DeAndre Hopkins, Kirk is coming off a career-high 982-yard season and has experience outside and in the slot. At 25, the former second-round pick is the kind of ascending player to target in free agency. That said, this was a big number that produced a substantial ripple effect.

At the time of signing, Kirk’s $18MM-per-year deal ranked seventh among receivers in AAV. That added to the deal’s shock value. But with so many receivers becoming $20MM-AAV players in the months that followed, Jacksonville’s oft-criticized receiver contract checks in at a more reasonable 18th entering the season.

Chark’s injury stripped Meyer’s team of its top target, and Marvin Jones is a lower-end WR2 at best at this point. The team has a rookie-quarterback contract, and its offseason reflected it. Kirk, 25, might not deliver on this pact, and he undoubtedly benefited because of the Jags’ situation. But this is essentially a two-year, $37MM deal that pairs well with Lawrence, who does not become extension-eligible until Kirk’s guarantees stop in 2024. The Jags pursued Amari Cooper in a trade. That would have been the safer bet, and it turned out to be a bargain for the Browns. But Kirk is three years younger, working in the Texas A&M product’s favor as his market rose to an unexpected place. The Eagles were indeed shocked at where Kirk’s market climbed.

Now, does the Jones contract — arguably free agency’s most bizarre accord — undercut potential optimism about the Jags’ receiver plan? Probably. But Kirk drew interest. And the Jags’ circumstances necessitate overpays. A few more of those transpired.

One of the oldest first-time free agents in modern NFL history, Scherff nevertheless maximized his value via the Kirk Cousins path. Following in the footsteps of Washington’s former quarterback, the team’s top guard was twice franchise-tagged and committed to Jacksonville on a guard-record contract. Quenton Nelson will surpass it soon, but for now, Scherff’s $16.5MM AAV leads the way. The Jags are taking risks on the age (30) and injury fronts here; Scherff has missed 22 games over the past five seasons. But talents like this are rarely available in their primes. The Jags did well to capitalize on the unique circumstances that led Scherff — the first franchise-tagged guard since Logan Mankins in 2011 — to free agency. It made sense for the Jaguars to go big for O-line talent. Pro Football Focus rated their line — one largely unchanged from the 1-15 2020 showing — 24th last season.

The former top-five pick is a five-time Pro Bowler and is riding a three-year streak of such honors. Like Kirk’s deal, the guarantees align with a low-cost QB contract. An argument could be made the Jags did not devote enough resources to address their front this offseason, but Scherff — whom various NFL personnel (via ESPN.com’s Jeremy Fowler) rated as the league’s third-best interior O-lineman this offseason — is a nice building block.

Oluokun’s $15MM AAV still ranks fourth at his position — a spot in which teams are stingier in doling out payments, as the Roquan Smith saga shows. PFF did not view Oluokun’s two starter seasons particularly well, but the former fifth-rounder’s market showed teams were higher on him. Oluokun’s 192 tackles were the most by an NFLer in a season this century. He added two sacks, six passes defensed and three interceptions — including one to seal a late-season win over the Lions. This is probably an overpayment, considering the names that accompany Oluokun atop the off-ball linebacker market, but the talent-starved Jags could afford it — especially after Myles Jack‘s contract came off the books.

Jacksonville’s defense outpaced its offense last season, but the team still ranked 23rd against the run. Enter Fatukasi, who excelled in this area as a Jet. Fatukasi’s deal represents a major profile rise for a former sixth-round pick, but the 27-year-old defensive tackle rated as a top-15 PFF interior D-lineman in 2019 and ’20. While the advanced metrics site was less bullish on his work as a full-time starter last season, the UConn alum still stands to upgrade the Jags’ run defense.

After signing Williams ($10MM per year) and Shaquill Griffin ($13.3MM AAV) in consecutive offseasons, the Jaguars field a sneakily expensive cornerback contingent. Only the Dolphins (Xavien Howard, Byron Jones), Ravens (Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters) and Commanders (William Jackson, Kendall Fuller) have two eight-figure-per-year corners. That will be a less notable distinction as the cap growth continues, but the former Jalen Ramsey sidekick will need to step up on his own.

Williams, 29, zoomed onto the radar with a four-INT 2020, when PFF rated him as a top-five corner. Some of Williams’ metrics worsened in 2021, when he allowed four TD strikes, but his yards-per-target figure dropped to 6.6. The Jags will be expected to deploy the Jacksonville native as a nickel alongside Griffin and Tyson Campbell.

Although it was surprising the Jags did not further augment their pass-catching corps in the draft, taking a flier on Engram makes sense. The former Pro Bowler has shown talent in spurts, but injuries and inconsistency doomed his Giants run. Playing with Lawrence in a Pederson-run offense is a better situation than what Engram was dealing with in New York, however.

The athletic receiving tight end who delivered one of the most productive rookie-year tight end seasons in recent NFL annals (722 yards, six TDs) also has shaken the injury bug, missing only three games since 2020. The former first-round pick turns 29 in September; he is running out of time to secure a nice free agency payday. If Engram stays healthy, this could be a nice value signing. The Jags have not generated much from the tight end position since Marcedes Lewis‘ prime, missing on Julius Thomas and Josh Oliver. Engram contributions would be a bonus through that lens.

Re-signings:

Notable losses:

Nearly half of Jacksonville’s lineup will consist of new starters, and while new regimes often overhaul the roster, Pederson taking a job for a team that has gone 4-29 since 2020 almost mandated it. The Jags’ Week 1 interior O-line from last season is gone, as is their longest-tenured defender.

Seeing Jack reward Pittsburgh’s two-year, $16MM deal would not surprise. The former second-round pick was part of a Jags defensive core that had a moment in the late 2010s, leading the NFL in DVOA in 2017. Jack would have been a first-round pick if he entered the draft healthy, but the UCLA product rewarded the Jags by shaking off his knee injury to begin a starter run as a rookie. Jack played a major part in the Jags’ 2017 ascent, and had officials not incorrectly whistled him down after his second-half fumble recovery in the AFC championship game, the NFL might have had one of its all-time unlikely Super Bowl entrants.

PFF rated Jack as one of the NFL’s worst linebackers last season, however, and the Jags bailing on his four-year, $57MM extension in March saved them $8MM. However, Jack was asked to keep switching positions in recent years and the seventh-year vet is only going into his age-27 season. The Jags clearly had big plans at linebacker this year, as their 2022 investments show.

Linder and Cann had been starters for eight and seven seasons, respectively, arriving in the 2014 and ’15 third rounds. These two combined for zero Pro Bowls but each gave the franchise long stretches of starter work after signing extensions. Injuries kept Linder off the field too often, but he was one of the NFL’s better centers when available. PFF graded the ex-Miami Hurricane as a top-five center each year from 2016-20, though he did miss 19 games in that span. Cann’s 94 Jaguars starts are the fourth-most by an O-lineman in Jaguars history — behind only Brad Meester, Vince Manuwai and Maurice Williams. Cann, 30, did not play fewer than 15 games in a season from 2016-20, but a knee injury limited him to four in his Jags finale. The Jags will see him soon, as he signed with the Texans.

Pederson expressed interest in re-signing Chark, despite the broken ankle that ended his 2021 season early. Re-signing Chark would seemingly have been a better decision than guaranteeing Zay Jones $14MM, but by the time Chark agreed to his one-year, $10MM Lions deal, the Jags had already added Kirk and Jones. Chark is responsible for the only Jags 1,000-yard season since 2015 — his 1,008-yard year with Gardner Minshew in 2019. That provides a rather sobering glimpse at this team’s receiver situation since Allen Robinson‘s ACL tear and also may help explain the Kirk payment.

Draft:

After Kayvon Thibodeaux saw his stock dinged during the pre-draft runup, Aidan Hutchinson had moved into pole position to be the Jaguars’ top pick. Not until late March did the prospect of the team going with Walker surface. As the size-speed freak gained steam into April, a report days before the draft indicated Baalke and Khan disagreed on how to proceed. The owner was believed to want the safer pick in Hutchinson, while Baalke was behind Walker’s toolbox. Khan has held roster control at points in the past, so deferring to his football ops department is probably for the best here. But Walker (ESPN.com’s No. 8-ranked prospect) does come with more risk than Hutchinson, whom the Lions chose quickly while on the clock.

Although Walker went No. 1, some of his Georgia teammates who went in Round 1 bring higher floors. The Bulldog defense’s five-first-rounder haul did not lead off with a statistical monster, as Walker’s college stats do not compare to some recent drafts’ first defenders selected. Hutchinson’s numbers, as a senior at least, were more in line with Chase Young — with each being second-place Heisman finishers, though Hutchinson was not an open-and-shut lock like Young entering his draft — and the Bosa brothers than Walker’s, but the Jags will bet on the latter’s athletic ceiling. At 272 pounds, Walker blazed to a 4.51-second 40-yard dash at the Combine. Walker was also a five-star recruit coming out of high school in Georgia.

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Offseason In Review: Houston Texans

August 23rd, 2022 at 10:30pm CST by Sam Robinson

The Deshaun Watson drama enveloped the Texans’ 2021 offseason, and the team’s new regime did not have attractive draft picks at its disposal. This year brought changes on both fronts, allowing Houston’s Nick Caserio-overseen rebuild to begin in earnest.

Houston took some off-field hits from the Watson saga, remaining connected to the quarterback even after trading him. And Caserio’s 2022 signings resembled the quantity-over-quality approach from last year. But the Texans armed themselves with a historic trade haul — providing them with the draft capital necessary to finally start over. The acquisitions from this offseason will go a long way toward determining how Caserio will fare as GM.

Trades:

Setting aside the controversy surrounding the quarterback for a minute, the Texans deftly cut the cord here and obtained full value for a Pro Bowler that both wanted out and has not played since the 2020 season. As many as 10 teams inquired about Watson. By limiting possible trades to teams willing to meet the Texans’ asking price — three first-rounders and change — Caserio played this process well after holding off on a trade throughout the foggier 2021 offseason.

It will still take time for this organization to move past the Watson damage. The Texans’ alleged role in aiding their former franchise quarterback’s behavior will continue to come up, especially with Watson’s Browns debut set for December 4 in Houston, but judging this deal by assets acquired leads to a historic win for the AFC South franchise.

A few Hall of Fame passers were traded in their 20s. Fran Tarkenton (1967), Steve Young (1987) and Brett Favre (1992) changed teams early in their careers, though only Tarkenton was an established starter at the time of his trade. Tarkenton fetched two first-rounders and change; Favre was swapped for one first. It took only second- and fourth-rounders for the 49ers to pry Young away from the Buccaneers. The Watson deal marks just the second time a quarterback fetched three first-round picks. The Patriots trading former No. 1 overall pick Jim Plunkett to the 49ers in April 1976 represents the other instance of this happening.

Cleveland gave up more than San Francisco did in its ill-fated trade, which included three firsts, a 1977 second and one player (backup QB Tom Owen). Houston’s haul is more impressive considering Watson’s 11-game suspension will mean Cleveland acquired a player whose career is amid a near-two-season pause. Should Watson be cleared for the Dec. 4 Houston return, he will have missed 28 games. That extended hiatus may have affected Watson’s market, were the 11-game ban known beforehand. But given the interest that developed, perhaps not.

The Browns are taking a massive risk not only by trading for Watson but authorizing their whopping $230MM fully guaranteed extension — less than 18 months after Watson signed a $39MM-per-year deal with the Texans. But the Falcons, Panthers and Saints were ready to meet the Texans’ asking price as well. Caserio standing pat at the 2021 deadline, when the Dolphins (and to a lesser degree, the Panthers) represented the market, proved the right call considering the sweepstakes that emerged. This awkward trade derby illustrates the value of a franchise-caliber quarterback in the modern game.

The Texans ended up only getting three full seasons out of Watson, whom the Rick Smith regime traded up for (with the Browns) in 2017. Each of those full seasons ended with Pro Bowl nods. Despite playoff berths in 2018 and ’19, this will not be a fondly remembered period for the franchise. More women sued Watson after the Texans traded him, and civil depositions accused franchise staffers in aiding Watson as he reportedly saw at least 66 massage therapists over an 18-month period. The Texans being connected to arranging a hotel and nondisclosure agreements for Watson has stained the franchise, to a degree, though the Browns — thanks to the stunning contract decision — are understandably taking most of the heat. Still, the Texans settling with 30 massage therapists was one of the most memorable parts of this turbulent Watson offseason.

Houston has pivoted to a far less acclaimed quarterback prospect. Davis Mills‘ improvement did coincide with late-season Texans growth, and the team looks set to give the 2021 third-rounder a legitimate opportunity. Mills’ QBR figure (35.5) ranked 26th last season, but it bettered three of the four other rookies who were regular starters. The Stanford product’s stretch-run progression also came with one of the NFL’s worst offensive lines and skill-position situations.

This year’s Houston offense should not be confused with having upper-tier personnel, but Mills will have a chance to deter the organization from using a 2023 first-round pick on a quarterback. In the event Mills does not sufficiently impress, the Texans should be well-positioned in 2023 or ’24 to make a post-Watson QB investment.

Free agency additions:

Resembling an auction fantasy drafter who missed the first hour of the draft, Caserio went back to a similar contract well this year. The longtime Patriots exec has built perhaps the NFL’s oddest payroll, doing even more to corner the market on middling to slightly below-average veterans than he did in 2021. The Texans will welcome many experienced starters, however. They used free agency to augment a defense that ranked 23rd in DVOA, though surveying the unit’s progress will hinge more on the Texans’ draft choices than their signings.

The Texans had a trade in place to acquire James Bradberry from the Giants, and although New York agreed to pay part of the veteran starter’s $13.4MM salary, Houston wanted to extend him as part of the deal. Bradberry and the Texans were roughly $5MM in AAV apart, so a team with a clear price point — as evidenced by its offseason deals — moved to lower-cost corners. The Eagles ended up signing Bradberry to a one-year, $7.25MM deal. Nelson is on his third team in three years but has been a starter for the past several seasons.

Nelson, 29, is on his fourth team overall, having played out his rookie Chiefs contract before playing with both Pennsylvania teams in the 2020s. Pro-Football-Reference tagged Nelson as giving up five touchdowns and posting his worst metrics in passer rating and completion percentages allowed as the closest defender, but Pro Football Focus placed him as a league-average corner in 2021. Nelson played better in his two Steelers seasons and has experience outside and in the slot, though his slot experience came several years ago in Kansas City.

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Release Candidates: Dolphins RBs Myles Gaskin, Sony Michel

August 23rd, 2022 at 9:40pm CST by Ben Levine

The Dolphins completely revamped their running backs depth chart this offseason, and that will naturally lead to some tough decisions when it comes to roster cuts. While we don’t have full clarity yet on how the RB room will shake out, we can pretty confidently say that at least two offseason acquisitions will make the roster. Chase Edmonds earned the biggest contract of the bunch, and he’s expected to carry over his versatile, pass-catching role from Arizona to Miami. Meanwhile, while Raheem Mostert has struggled to stay healthy recently, his familiarity with Mike McDaniel‘s system makes him a lock to make the squad.

That leaves only a handful of spots for more than a handful of RBs. As Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald recently wrote, the team could end up opting for cheaper options as they look to fill in the depth chart behind Edmonds and Mostert. That means one or both of Sony Michel and Myles Gaskin could earn their walking papers before the season begins.

Michel was the Dolphins’ third notable running back signing. Following a disappointing final season in New England, the former first-round pick bounced back in 2021 with the Rams. He ended up starting seven of his 17 games, collecting 973 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns on 229 touches. The veteran also has extensive postseason experience, having earned rings with the Patriots and the Rams (including a 2018 playoff run when he had six touchdowns). The thing is, Michel is due $2.1MM next season, with only $500K guaranteed. It’s a drop in the bucket when it comes to the whole roster, but it’s still a lofty salary for what could ultimately be a third running back.

Meanwhile, Gaskin is the primary holdover from last year’s squad. Over the past two seasons, Gaskin has collected 1,818 yards from scrimmage in 27 games (17 starts). He’s also shown that he can be productive in the passing game, hauling in 90 receptions over that same span. However, similar to Michel, Gaskin is probably making too much for an end-of-the-depth-chart RB. The 25-year-old is set to make $2.5MM next season, but the team could recoup all of that money if they let him go.

If a spot does open on the depth chart, it seems like Salvon Ahmed would likely earn the gig. Ahmed actually had a stint on McDaniel’s squad in 2020 before joining Miami. The former undrafted free agent has gotten into 18 games for the Dolphins over the past two years, collecting 646 yards on offense. The Dolphins’ other RB options, including Zaquandre White and Gerrid Doaks, profile more as practice squad players, which probably bodes well for one of Michel or Gaskin to make the 53-man roster.

For what it’s worth, Gaskin leads the Dolphins in carries this offseason, while Michel has contributed -2 rushing yards on four touches. The coaching staff will use the next week to determine how to proceed, but if preseason has been any indication, it seems like Michel may be the odd man out.

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Rams

August 21st, 2022 at 10:17pm CST by Sam Robinson

Stockpiling talent and regularly drawing praise and/or astonishment for their salary cap gymnastics, the Rams finally saw their all-in operation lead to a championship. The Super Bowl LVI title, the franchise’s second Super Bowl crown and fourth championship, came after the team made multiple trades sacrificing two first-round picks and added Von Miller midseason by dealing away second- and third-round choices. Les Snead earned his “F*** them picks” meme status last season, and the maneuvering — particularly for Stafford — paid off for the perennial contender.

The Rams’ title defense will come after the team made major changes atop its cap sheet. Los Angeles found a way to fit three big-ticket extensions — two for players with multiple years left on their previous deals — into its plan, keeping essential cogs happy after they drove the franchise to its first title in 22 years. Los Angeles will again be positioned to vie for a championship. How much longer will the organization’s unorthodox model keep churning out Super Bowl-caliber rosters?

Extensions and restructures:

As Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson and Kyler Murray leapfrogged Patrick Mahomes‘ $45MM-per-year contract this offseason, Stafford’s first Rams-negotiated pact came in on the quarterback market’s second tier. Stafford had become the league’s salary leader in summer 2017, with his Lions-constructed $27MM-AAV accord topping the NFL by $2MM per annum at that point. He played on that contract for five seasons. After making the biggest difference in the Rams’ Sean McVay-era quest to turn their splashy moves into a championship, Stafford could have pushed for a deal closer to Rodgers’ $50.3MM-per-year pact. The 14th-year veteran not doing so helped the Rams take care of younger stars.

Not exactly on the Hall of Fame radar before last season, being 1-for-12 in Pro Bowls in the easiest era for such accolades, Stafford giving the Rams a clear upgrade on Jared Goff and catalyzing the team’s Super Bowl pursuit could make him an interesting case one day. That case can become more solidified beginning in 2022. Stafford, 34, still led the NFL with 17 interceptions in 2021 but picked up his first four postseason wins and outplayed some superstar passers during a run that culminated with one of the Super Bowl’s great drives.

Stafford’s elbow issue bears monitoring, of course, even though he has only missed games due to injury in one of the past 10 seasons (2019, due to a back injury). Various ailments have cropped up, however, over the years. But the Rams took care of Stafford after his 2021 contributions. The cannon-armed QB will lock in $57MM more by March 2023, with an option bonus and 2024 base salary ($31MM) becoming guaranteed.

Kupp’s 2021 detonation doubled as an illustrator of Stafford’s value, and the duo’s immediate rapport led the Rams to give the sudden star-level receiver talent a third contract. The team had previously signed its slot weapon to a three-year, $48MM extension in September 2020, doing so during a summer in which both Kupp and Robert Woods signed similar contracts. Kupp’s 15-game 2020 season — a 92-reception, 974-yard, three-touchdown offering — did not provide signs one of the great wideout breakouts was coming. The Rams changed their receiver equation because of Kupp’s multi-tier 2021 ascent.

Although Kupp fell just short of Calvin Johnson‘s single-season record, his 2,425-yard number in 21 total games shattered the record for combined regular-season and playoff receiving yardage. Kupp’s 478 yards rank only behind Larry Fitzgerald‘s 2008 dominance (546) for a single postseason, and he used the January-February closing argument to secure a top-five receiver contract. Kupp, who was previously signed through 2023, scored a $10MM-per-year raise in June. His new deal comes in behind only Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams and DeAndre Hopkins for AAV ($26.7MM). Kupp’s new through-2026 contract sits only 13th among receivers for full guarantees, but $35MM shift from injury guarantees to locked-in cash in March 2023.

A player cashing in despite two years remaining on his deal is uncommon but not groundbreaking. Donald’s new contract broke precedent. Days after Donald signed his first Rams extension — a six-year, $135MM accord in August 2018 — Khalil Mack used it as a platform to surpass him as the NFL’s highest-paid defender. While Donald’s previous payout topped the interior D-line market for its duration, Myles Garrett, Joey Bosa and T.J. Watt joined Mack in eclipsing Donald. Maxx Crosby did the same in March. None of those players have a claim to being a Mt. Rushmore NFL defender like Donald, who used a retirement threat to leapfrog that lot of edge defenders.

Not exactly at the ideal age (31) or in the usual contract window to cash in, Donald kept his retirement talk going through May. Recognizing Donald’s status as an irreplaceable talent — crystallized by the eight-year veteran’s dominant Super Bowl showing that probably should have, were voting done after the game, earned MVP acclaim — the Rams not only gave him a monster raise but kept his previous contract length intact.

At $31.7MM per year, Donald’s current through-2024 deal is $3MM clear of Watt. Donald is a much better bet to collect on all the contract’s cash than the league’s other $30MM-AAV non-QB — Tyreek Hill, who has a cosmetic $43.9MM final-year base salary. Judging by Donald’s consistency (seven straight All-Pro seasons), it would not shock if he was still in position to collect another monster payday toward the end of this extension.

In a deal that includes a no-trade clause, the Rams used void years to spread out Donald’s signing bonus through 2026. The team did not do this for Stafford and Kupp’s extensions, and only Stafford’s features a monstrous spike in cap numbers. Stafford’s cap hit balloons from $20MM in 2023 to $49.5MM in 2024. That will likely require attention down the line, and the Rams will need to keep hitting on mid-round draft picks to sustain their star-extending setup.

Trades:

Kupp’s impending extension, the Allen Robinson signing and the endless Odell Beckham Jr. reunion talk left Woods out of the picture. And the five-year Los Angeles starter’s November ACL tear gutted his trade value. The Rams worked with Woods on the deal, sending him to a Titans team that ran a similar type of passing scheme. This trade soon increased in relevancy for Tennessee, which traded A.J. Brown a month later. It wraps a memorable tenure for the L.A. native in his hometown.

An understandably overlooked player in run-based Bills offenses, Woods was the most consistent receiver during McVay’s first four years running the Rams. Given a five-year, $39MM deal in 2017, Woods produced 1,100-plus-yard seasons in 2018 and ’19 and was the most available of Los Angeles’ receivers during the team’s early McVay years. Kupp’s 2018 ACL tear and Brandin Cooks‘ 2019 concussion concerns made Woods the team’s centerpiece target. After receiving a 2019 raise, Woods cashed in via a four-year, $65MM deal in September 2020. As a result, the Titans have him on their books through 2025.

After a one-year Cleveland stay, Hill is back in L.A. The prospect of reacquiring Hill surfaced in early March, and the Rams kept tabs on the Browns’ offseason to determine how open Cleveland would be to sending Hill back. Cleveland’s decision to, despite giving Hill a two-year deal and trading its top two draft picks for Deshaun Watson, use its top 2022 draft asset on cornerback Martin Emerson gave Los Angeles the green light to trade for Hill.

Hill, 31, joined the Rams during their initial season back in California (2016) and was their primary slot corner during McVay’s tenure. With one year left on his Browns-built contract, Hill will be back in that role. Pro Football Focus placed Hill outside the top 70 at corner last season but graded him as a top-30 player at the position in both the 2019 and ’20 campaigns.

Free agency additions:

For multiple reasons, it will be interesting to see how Robinson looks in 2022. He has famously drawn short straws at the quarterback position — primarily featuring Blake Bortles and Mitchell Trubisky throwing him passes — through eight seasons. But Year 8 saw Robinson crash-land with a 410-yard season. Robinson’s Bears tenure did close contentiously, finishing on the franchise tag after acrimonious extension talks. The big-bodied target was also one of the NFL’s better pass catchers over the previous two years (back-to-back 1,100-plus-yard slates). Which version are the Rams getting?

Camp dispatches would seem to suggest the pre-2021 Robinson will resurface. With Beckham out of the picture (for now) and not expected to be ready until around November even if he does return, Robinson will be an important piece for the defending champs. The former Jaguars second-round pick has three 1,000-yard seasons on his resume, but he is running out of time to see how he looks with a proven passer. Playing in a McVay offense with Kupp as the lead target will also be a different role for Robinson, who has been his team’s top weapon for most of his career.

The Eagles were his other known suitor, and while that would have been an interesting sliding-doors moment due to the team’s decision to acquire A.J. Brown in April, but the Rams blew their offer out of the water. Legacy-wise, this will be a pivotal year for Robinson. The Rams guaranteed two years of his deal and have a $5.75MM roster bonus due in March 2024 — if Robinson remains a Ram by then.

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Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Bengals

August 21st, 2022 at 1:15pm CST by Adam La Rose

The Bengals entered the 2021 season with tempered expectations but reason for optimism. Quarterback Joe Burrow returning to full health and a number of free agent additions on defense in particular pointed to an incremental step for head coach Zac Taylor’s team after his first two years resulted in a record of 6-25-1. Playoffs were deemed a mere possibility, so the team’s actual performance – a division title, underdog playoff run and the franchise’s first Super Bowl appearance in more than 30 years – took the football world by storm.

With a number of foundational pieces seemingly in place, the 2022 offseason was deemed one needed to augment a strong roster and set it up for long-term success. Featuring the reigning Comeback Player of the Year in Burrow and Offensive Rookie of the Year in phenom receiver Ja’Marr Chase, the Bengals have an ascending nucleus of talent, but also a number of important unanswered questions. After several targeted free agent additions, contrasted with the unresolved contract dispute with another key young player in safety Jessie Bates, has Cincinnati taken sufficient steps towards long-term AFC contention?

Free agency additions:

After he was sacked a league-leading 51 times last regular season (along with 19 more in the playoffs), it was  universally understood that upgrading Burrow’s protection was the Bengals’ top priority. Their outside spending clearly reflects that, with the addition of three starting-caliber offensive lineman. Cappa, 27, is the youngest of the trio; he brings three years of starting experience from his time with the Buccaneers. A key member of Tampa Bay’s elite unit in recent years, the former third-rounder established himself as one of the top guards on the open market.

The Bucs expressed a willingness to keep him but had a number of other priorities which needed attention to keep their championship window open. Cappa’s career ascension has been reflected by year-to-year increases in Pro Football Focus grades (including a new personal mark of 73.4 last season), and he played every offensive snap for the second consecutive regular season in 2021. He projects as a consistent, durable upgrade on the right side of Cincinnati’s O-line.

The latter part of that description may not be true of Collins. The former Cowboy established himself as a high-level blocker originally on the interior, beginning his NFL career at guard. But he has mostly worked at the right tackle spot. His 82 PFF grade in 2021 was confirmation of his caliber of play when on the field, but that plus assessment came in a campaign where he missed five games due to a PED suspension. That early-season hiatus followed the 2020 season, which Collins missed in its entirety due to injury. The 29-year-old was nevertheless a highly sought-after free agent following his release from Dallas, and, if healthy could prove to be an effective value signing. The deal will also give Collins the opportunity to continue climbing the ranks of the league’s highest-earning former UDFAs.

Sandwiched in between the Cappa and Collins signings was that of Karras. The former Patriots sixth-rounder didn’t take on full-time starting duties until his fourth year in the league (2019), recording over 1,000 snaps for the first of two consecutive seasons. His play earned him a free agent deal with the Dolphins in 2020, when he took an incremental step forward in terms of PFF grade. That continued last year after his return to New England, making the 29-year-old another high-floor addition who could have the potential for improvement relatively late in his career.

Alongside left tackle Jonah Williams – who has demonstrated his first-round talent when healthy – Karras, Cappa and Collins should dramatically improve the unit’s overall play and at least alleviate some concerns with respect to keeping Burrow upright.

While the offensive line was the obvious priority, adding a dependable tight end represented another need. Hurst should be able to operate as a starter, a role he has had few opportunities to hold down during his career. Surpassed on the depth chart first by Mark Andrews in Baltimore, then by Kyle Pitts after his trade to Atlanta, the former first-rounder profiles as a capable blocker who can handle secondary pass-catching duties as well. With backup Drew Sample also a free agent at the end of the season, a productive year could help Hurst secure a more permanent place with his second AFC North employer.

Re-signings:

The trade acquisition of Hill — for disappointing first-round center Billy Price — proved to be a fruitful one for the Bengals in 2021. The former Giant set a new career-high in tackles with 50 and matched his personal best in the pass rush department with 5.5 sacks. He put up those numbers while playing in a rotational role, so the presumed increase in snaps he is in line for moving forward — thanks to Larry Ogunjobi‘s exit — makes the Bengals’ sizable investment in him a reasonable one.

With Hill and D.J. Reader – who is under contract for two more years with cap hits of $13.7MM and $15.7MM – Cincinnati is poised to have a costly tandem on the interior of its defensive line, as one of only three teams with multiple players at the position averaging over $10MM per season. For at least the short term, though, the pairing should be an effective one.

In the secondary, retaining Apple – especially at a reasonable rate for only one year – was a decision made easier by his level of play in 2021, his first year in Cincinnati. Totaling 10 pass deflections and a pair of interceptions, the 27-year-old also enjoyed a bounce-back season in terms of pass coverage compared to recent years. After logging a snap share of 93% last season, Apple proved capable of handling starting duties alongside Chidobe Awuzie and Mike Hilton, but could also give the secondary quality depth as a rotational player. The same is roughly true of Flowers, who started 40 contests during his time with the Seahawks. But he will be slated for a similar role to that which he played after joining Cincinnati midseason, limiting him to a backup spot.

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Offseason In Review: Green Bay Packers

August 19th, 2022 at 10:42pm CST by Sam Robinson

Back to becoming a consistent Super Bowl threat in recent years, the Packers have remained unable to overcome perpetual postseason stumbling blocks. The team’s back-to-back No. 1 seeds from 2020-21 were a first in franchise history — with record-based home-field advantage only being introduced in the mid-1970s — but neither led to a Super Bowl berth. The Packers managed a third straight 13-win season but endured a divisional-round upset. Much has changed since, inviting big-picture questions.

Aaron Rodgers agreeing to stay in Green Bay marked the franchise’s most important offseason development, but the top weapon from his 13 years commanding the Packers’ offense leaving has brought scrutiny. The 38-year-old quarterback, who does not sound like he aims to follow in Tom Brady‘s footsteps by playing into his mid-40s, is now without his top two receivers from 2021. This late into the all-time great quarterback’s career, is this a Packers formula that will work?

Trades:

Adams contract issues came to a head this offseason. While the Packers momentarily kept the door open for a ninth Rodgers-Adams season by tagging the All-Pro wide receiver, their first tag usage in 12 years, GM Brian Gutekunst slammed it shut by agreeing to a trade that brought sweeping changes to the Packers’ passing attack and the receiver market. Previous Packers GM Ted Thompson did well to identify Adams’ potential by signing him to a $14MM-per-year accord in December 2017. That deal came months before Sammy Watkins‘ Chiefs contract brought a market correction. The receiver landscape stabilized for a bit in the years that followed, increasing incrementally, but Adams’ contract became quite Packers-friendly as it wound down. His $28MM-per-year Raiders pact triggered an avalanche.

The Packers discussed a deal with Adams before the 2021 season, but the sides broke off talks. Failing to re-sign Adams before last season can be used against Gutekunst, but the wide receiver expressing hesitancy regarding another Green Bay contract for two quarterback-related reasons threw a wrench into the team’s relationship with its top Rodgers-era playmaker. Shortly after Rodgers’ April 2021 trade request, Adams said it factored into his own negotiations. This offseason, Adams said Rodgers’ future still mattered as he determined his own. Adams’ long-running interest in reuniting with Derek Carr (and vice versa) overshadowed all of this.

Green Bay out-offering Las Vegas for Adams and still seeing its star receiver opt for the Raiders represented an odd conclusion to this process — one that could impede the team’s latest run at a Super Bowl. Adams, 29, arrived in Vegas on the heels of five straight Pro Bowl invites, and he earned back-to-back first-team All-Pro nods for outings that obviously aided Rodgers’ two MVP honors.

Rodgers did plenty to boost Adams as well and has fared well without him in recent years. But the four-time MVP being stripped of this type of talent at this stage of his career will be a test. Adams missed time due to injuries over the course of his second contract, but the last time the Packers were without a No. 1-caliber Rodgers target for a full season was 2015. A March Adams trade and an August Jordy Nelson ACL tear are different matters, but Rodgers experienced a statistical dip that year — in the form of considerable drops in completion percentage, yards per attempt and QBR.

The Packers have had several months to adjust to Adams’ departure — one Rodgers knew was likely when he recommitted — and did package one of the trade assets to add a receiver piece (No. 34 overall pick Christian Watson). But this will be an interesting challenge and the kind of adjustment the Packer legend’s NFC QB rivals do not have to navigate this year.

Free agency additions:

Not typically big spenders on the market, the Packers continued that trend with a quiet spring regarding outside hires. Although O’Donnell leaving his Bears punting post of eight years for the Packers is interesting, Watkins and Reed’s Wisconsin pledges were the biggest news on this offseason front.

LaFleur worked as the Rams’ offensive coordinator during Watkins’ Los Angeles year (2017); Watkins played a career-high 15 games that season and helped the Rams snap a 13-year playoff drought. The former top-five Bills pick made some nice contributions, particularly in the 2019 postseason, during the Chiefs’ voyages to consecutive Super Bowls. But the one-time top prospect has not panned out as a pro. Watkins’ value drop from $16MM per year (Kansas City, 2018) to $5MM (Baltimore, 2021) to this reflects a player nearing his last chance. Watkins, 29, could potentially help the Packers as an auxiliary option. Asking the injury-prone target, who has topped 600 yards once in the past six seasons, to be a consistent contributor appears a bridge too far.

Even after adding Watkins, the Packers made runs at a few other veteran wideouts this offseason. They pursued Marquise Brown and Julio Jones and were linked to Deebo Samuel and DeVante Parker. It does not appear Samuel, who was most closely connected to the Jets, was a serious trade target. The Patriots landed Parker for a third-round pick, while it took a first (with a third coming back) for the Cardinals to nab Brown. It is understandable why the Packers stood down here, but the receiver links do point to the franchise remaining interested in veteran options. Until the Rams follow through on their incessant Odell Beckham Jr. reunion interest, the rehabbing star figures to stay on the Packers’ radar.

Reed refusing a 2021 Seahawks restructure, instead pushing for an extension, has sent him on a journeyman path. The Seahawks gave the defensive tackle a two-year, $23MM deal in 2020 but cut bait a year later. Reed signed a one-year, $5.5MM Chiefs pact in 2021 and could not command that this year. Still, the recent Chris Jones sidekick should help the Packers as a complementary inside pass rusher. Reed, 29, registered 10.5 sacks in 2018 and totaled 8.5 (counting two playoff sacks) two years later. He has not missed a game since his 2019 PED suspension and forced two fumbles last season. This could be a nice value signing for the Packers.

Re-signings:

As is frequently the case for the Packers, they did shell out some dough to retain their own UFAs. Both Campbell and Douglas boosted their stock by helping a depleted Packers team to the NFC’s No. 1 seed, and the team paid each nice money on the market. This was an easy place to look at where the Adams cash went.

Campbell offered one of the more interesting breakthrough seasons in recent memory last year. The former Falcons fourth-round find morphed from a player Atlanta did not retain in 2020 to one Arizona also let walk after a modest contract (one year, $6MM) expired. The Packers nabbed Campbell in May 2021, on a one-year deal worth $2MM, and saw him become their first off-ball linebacker All-Pro in nearly 50 years. Campbell’s 146-tackle, two-forced fumble, two-INT, two-sack season graded behind only Micah Parsons among linebackers in 2021, per Pro Football Focus.

This does represent a significant deviation for the Packers, who had largely avoided off-ball linebacker investments post-A.J. Hawk. The Pack both signing Campbell and drafting Quay Walker swerves from that route. Campbell is only guaranteed his signing bonus, though roster bonuses of $3MM (2023) and $2.9MM (’24) are due on Day 3 of those league years. Still, this equates to an upper-middle-class linebacker deal.

Compared to his pre-Green Bay career trek (five teams from September 2020 to October 2021), Douglas securing a $7MM-per-year accord is a big win for the nomadic cornerback. Teams were still skeptical of Douglas’ breakout 2021, however, judging by his low guarantee figure. If Douglas’ 2021 (five INTs, two pick-sixes, an eye-catching 44.5 passer rating allowed as the closest defender) proves a mirage, the Packers can escape the contract in 2023. The team obviously hopes he can be a long-term contributor alongside first-rounders Jaire Alexander and Eric Stokes. Douglas, 28, is expected to patrol the slot for Green Bay, which let Chandon Sullivan sign with Minnesota.

Tonyan’s midseason ACL tear cost him dearly. Instead of the 2020 breakout performer capitalizing on two solid years as a Rodgers weapon, he had to settle for a low-end contract. Although Tonyan has just four years’ experience, he is already 28. With Week 1 availability uncertain, the stakes will be high for the ex-UDFA to deliver this season. His window to cash in is closing.

But the Packers have uncertain receiver situation. Tonyan’s nice, perhaps unsustainable, 11-touchdown 2020 season (a 52-catch, 586-yard campaign) still points to him being the Packers’ top tight end when healthy. That status still should point the Indiana State alum’s arrow upward, but Tonyan will need to prove himself again. Not doing so will call the team’s tight end plan into question.

Notable losses:

Days after the Adams tag-and-trade transaction, Valdes-Scantling defected to the Chiefs. Prior to the AFC West gutting the Packers’ receiving corps, the NFC North champs tried to retain the deep threat. MVS ran into a slightly better market than he anticipated, expecting to sign a one-year deal in the $7-$10MM AAV range. The Chiefs guaranteed the four-year Packer contributor just $8.6MM, indicating Green Bay did not make a substantial offer to keep the former fifth-round pick.

The Valdes-Scantling departure gave the Packers a unique offseason task, given their status as a top-shelf contender and employment of a quarterback legend approaching 39. The team is losing a wideout who dealt with sporadic drop issues but one who led the league in yards per catch (20.9) in 2020. Valdes-Scantling’s defection plunged the Packers into one of the more unusual receiver situations in recent NFL history. The two playmakers’ exits remove nearly 2,000 2021 receiving yards from Green Bay’s equation. This will move a lot onto the shoulders of Allen Lazard(career-high 513 receiving yards, eight TDs in 2021), with the team also likely to rely more on Aaron Jones‘ receiving abilities.

Considering the Packers’ Thompson-era strategy in free agency — largely avoiding it, save for some notable SFAs — Gutekunst’s 2019 Smith contract (four years, $66MM) raised eyebrows. The ex-Ravens contributor was coming off a promising 2018 season, but the Packers unlocked his potential. Smith soared to back-to-back Pro Bowls as a Packer and anchored the edge rush for two straight NFC championship game-bound teams, combining for 26 sacks from 2019-20. Smith’s 2021 back injury contributed to his Green Bay exit, but the team’s offseason contract restructure — which inflated the edge defender’s 2022 cap figure to $28.1MM — pointed him out the door anyway.

Smith’s early-season back surgery did preview the Packers’ current OLB configuration. Rashan Gary is now in place as Green Bay’s top edge player, with ex-Za’Darius sidekick Preston Smith set to flank him. It will be interesting to see if Za’Darius Smith can regain his previous form; the Vikings threw out a midlevel bet on him doing so. The Packers will surely see a motivated defender come Week 1. Ditto Sullivan, whom the Packers did not keep despite the Vikings needing only needing to pay $1.75MM to move him out of Green Bay. The team’s primary slot defender to start the 2020s, Sullivan surpassed the 70% snap barrier in each of the past two seasons.

The coaches that left Wisconsin this offseason took some Packers role players with them. Nathaniel Hackett is eyeing Turner as his starting right tackle in Denver. One of several Packers O-linemen to miss time due to injuries last season, Turner saw time at guard and both tackle spots in three Green Bay seasons. His exit strips the Packers of more experience.

David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins returning healthy would minimize the exits of Turner and Kelly, but we are a ways away from knowing the Packers O-line cogs’ respective 2022 availability. New Bears OC Luke Getsy pried Patrick, St. Brown and Moore. Primarily a guard, Patrick started 28 games for the Packers from 2020-21. If Jenkins and Bakhtiari are not back in Week 1, Green Bay will not feature much experience up front.

Extensions and restructures:

The Packers were busy on the extension front this offseason; their biggest deal produced multi-city fallout. The Broncos were linked to Rodgers for nearly a year, being the primary suitor in the event the once-disgruntled Packer ultimately wanted out. Not long after Rodgers’ Packers recommitment, the Broncos went with Plan B — a Russell Wilson trade that had not produced rumors nearly on the level the Rodgers-to-Denver scenario had. Although this process lingered up until the franchise tag deadline, seeming to coincide with Adams’ status, the Packers kept their cornerstone player. Just as he did with his 2013 ($22MM per year) and 2018 ($33.5MM AAV) extensions, Rodgers tops the quarterback market. Illustrating this positional market’s rapid growth, this re-up makes him the first $50MM-per-year NFLer.

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Offseason In Review: New York Jets

August 18th, 2022 at 9:33pm CST by Ben Levine

The New York Jets have always been intent on winning the back page, which often includes lavish (and later regrettable) spending. While the Jets still spent a bit this offseason, the organization’s new-ish regime (led by fourth-year GM Joe Douglas and second-year head coach Robert Saleh) seems to be operating under a more disciplined, focused approach, with a particular emphasis on building from within. To that, the Jets did an admirable job filling a handful of holes through the draft, especially via three first-round picks and one early second-round pick.

The Jets deserve props for adding both foundational and short-term pieces that addressed some clear needs. While they don’t have much room to fall following a four-win campaign in 2021, it remains to be seen if these offseason moves will be enough to get the Jets to a respectable record…and (perhaps) their first playoff appearance since the 2010 season.

Notable signings:

The Jets offensive line actually showed plenty of improvement during the 2021 season, but other than former first-round pick Alijah Vera-Tucker, questions remain. George Fant and Connor McGovern are both getting up there in age and only have a year remaining on their contracts. Morgan Moses left in free agency, while the embattled Mekhi Becton first lost out on the LT competition before being ruled out for the season.

To help shore up the unit in both the short- and long-term, the Jets brought in Laken Tomlinson. A former first-round pick by the Lions, Tomlinson found a home in San Francisco between the 2017 and 2021 seasons, including a 2021 campaign where he earned his first career Pro Bowl selection. He ended up ranking 13th among 82 eligible guard candidates via Pro Football Focus, and based on his track record, there’s no reason to think he’ll fall out of the top-15 guards in 2022.

Following Becton’s season-ending knee injury, the Jets brought in Duane Brown to start at left tackle. While Fant initially claimed the LT gig, it sounds like he’ll switch back to RT to welcome in his experienced teammate. As a Pro Bowl alternate last season, Brown demonstrated that he can still operate at a high level despite his age, and the Jets will clearly be counting on him to remain an effective blindside blocker for at least the 2022 campaign.

The Jets got a combined 50 catches for 534 yards and three touchdowns from their tight ends last season. While they didn’t necessarily fill the holes with sexy names, they added a pair of dependable TEs who they can immediately pop into the lineup. C.J. Uzomah had a career year with the Bengals in 2021, hauling in 49 catches for 493 yards and five touchdowns before adding another 15 receptions for 146 yards and one score in the playoffs. Tyler Conklin had a breakout season with the Vikings, finishing with 61 receptions for 593 yards and three scores. Conklin profiles as mostly a receiving TE, but Uzomah has the blocking prowess to play in any scenario.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Jets focused on adding depth to their secondary. Bryce Hall and Brandin Echols started a combined 31 games at cornerback last season, but the duo will likely be demoted following the additions of rookie Sauce Gardner (who we’ll get to later) and free agent acquisition D.J. Reed. A former backup in San Francisco, Reed started 22 games for the Seahawks over the past two seasons, including a 2021 campaign where he finished with a career-high 78 tackles and 10 passes defended. Pro Football Focus was particularly fond of his performance, ranking him eighth among 166 qualifying cornerbacks last year. Reed should immediately slide into the starting lineup along with Gardner and nickelback Michael Carter II.

Elsewhere on their secondary, the Jets signed Jordan Whitehead to add some depth at safety. The former fourth-round pick started 55 of his 59 games for the Buccaneers between 2018 and 2021, and he helps add a championship pedigree to a squad striving for a simple postseason appearance. Whitehead was firmly in the top-third of PFF’s ranking of the league’s safeties, and his run-defending ability should come in handy alongside a questionable front seven. The same sentiment applies to Marcell Harris, a former safety who mostly played linebacker with the 49ers last season.

While the Jets front office did an admirable job of filling their needs this offseason, there are still some question marks surrounding their front seven, especially their linebackers corps. The recent signing of Kwon Alexander will certainly help, although his consistent injury issues will probably limit him to a backup role. Jacob Martin was also brought in as some depth at LB, but he profiles as more of a DE in Robert Saleh’s 4-3 defense. Solomon Thomas will provide some depth behind defensive tackles Quinnen Williams and John Franklin-Myers.

The Jets relied on Matt Ammendola and Eddy Pineiro at kicker last season, with the duo connecting on only 77.8 percent of their field goal attempts, the seventh-worst mark in the NFL. The Jets brought in veteran Greg Zuerlein to hopefully provide some consistency at the position. Greg The Leg connected on 82.9 percent of his field goal attempts in each of the past two seasons, although he finished the 2021 campaign having connected on a career-worst 87.5 percent of his XP tries.

Notable losses:

The Jets lost a handful of contributors during the offseason, but the majority of those exits have been accounted for. Marcus Maye was a consistent starter during his tenure in New York, but he was limited to only six games in 2021 thanks to a torn Achilles. The Jets ended up pivoting to Jordan Whitehead, who earned about half of what Maye got from the Saints. Plus, Lamarcus Joyner is back after appearing in only one game last season.

Elsewhere on defense, Folorunso Fatukasi is gone after starting a career-high 15 games last season. He ended up grading out as a middle-of-the-road interior defender on PFF, and with Quinnen Williams, John Franklin-Myers, and Solomon Thomas around, Fatukasi was made expendable. Jarrad Davis started five of his nine games for the Jets last season, finishing with 25 tackles. Considering the team’s lack of LB depth, it’s probably pretty telling that the front office was willing to let him walk.

The Jets also lost some starting-caliber players along their offensive line. Morgan Moses started 16 of his 17 games last season, while Greg Van Roten started 23 of his 30 appearances over the past two years. The signing of Laken Tomlinson helps make those losses more palatable, and while either of Moses or Van Roten would have provided some much-needed depth, they were unlikely to crack the starting lineup.

Tyler Kroft and Ryan Griffin started a combined 18 games last season, but the duo finished with only 43 total receptions. The Jets replacements at the position (C.J. Uzomah, Tyler Conklin) won’t set the world on fire, but they’re definitely an upgrade over what the team was relying on in 2021. The same could probably be said at wide receiver, although Jamison Crowder was one of the team’s most consistent offensive weapons over the past three years (63 catches per season). Keelan Cole also showed flashes in 2021, averaging 16 yards on his 28 receptions. Fortunately, the team still has plenty of depth at the position, with Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, Garrett Wilson, Denzel Mims, and Braxton Berrios providing some intrigue.

Re-signed:

The Jets made sure to retain some depth pieces on both sides of the ball. Lamarcus Joyner and Vinny Curry were both brought in by the Jets last offseason, but the two acquisitions combined for only one game. Joyner bounced in and out of the Raiders starting lineup during the 2019 and 2020 seasons, and he was mostly graded as a below-average safety during those two years. The Jets didn’t give up a whole lot to bring him back, and while he’s projected to start at safety, he could see some pressure from Ashtyn Davis and Jason Pinnock. Curry was sidelined for the entire 2021 campaign after being diagnosed with a rare blood disorder that required the removal of his spleen. He re-signed with the Jets this offseason, a positive indication that he’s doing better, but he’ll still have an uphill battle to make the 53-man roster.

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Extension Candidate: Denzel Perryman

August 17th, 2022 at 10:43pm CST by Ely Allen

The Raiders have dedicated big contracts to a number of their star players over the past few years extending players like quarterback Derek Carr, defensive end Maxx Crosby, tackle Kolton Miller, wide receiver Hunter Renfrow, and tight end Darren Waller while signing free agents like wide receiver Davante Adams and defensive end Chandler Jones to large salaries, as well. Luckily for them, the next potential player up for a new deal plays at one of the league’s cheaper positions. 

Physically, Denzel Perryman is a near replica of fellow Miami Hurricane alumnus Ray Lewis. Both are undersized for the linebacker position, sitting at around 6-foot tall and 240 pounds. Perryman’s playing style is that of the prototypical, old-school linebacker. He’s a thumper that is always around the ball-carrier but can struggle in some coverage situations. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) ranked him 16th among linebackers in run defense last year and 2nd in pass rush, but his lackluster coverage grades (41st) slot him as the 26th-ranked linebacker overall.

Perryman was a second-round pick for the Chargers back in 2015. He was expected to contribute right away, despite being limited throughout camp with a hamstring injury, but quickly pushed his way into the starting lineup by Week 6 of his rookie season when starter Manti Te’o suffered an injury. Perryman started alongside Donald Butler for two weeks before sustaining an injury himself. When Te’o and Perryman both returned from injury at the same time, then-San Diego defensive coordinator John Pagano named them both starters, demoting Butler to a backup role. He started the rest of the season for the Chargers and never really let go of that starting role.

After playing out his rookie contract, the Chargers extended Perryman on a two-year, $12MM deal. During the last year of his new contract, the Chargers decided to inject some youth into the linebacking corps, drafting Kenneth Murray in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. When Perryman’s contract expired, Los Angeles decided to let him walk in free agency. Perryman’s limited usage in his final two years with the Chargers hurt his value a bit and he signed a two-year, $6MM deal with the Panthers. A little more than two weeks before the season started, though, Carolina traded Perryman to the Raiders for the 2021 season.

2021 saw a complete resurgence for the ailing linebacker. While many assumed his best days were behind him and that he was doomed to serve as a depth piece or lower-tier starter for the remainder of his career, Perryman took in his new surroundings and opportunities and made out of them the best season of his seven-year career. Last year, Perryman finished the season at sixth in the league with 154 tackles, more than doubling his previous season-high of 73 set in his rookie season. After being packaged with a seventh-round pick to be exchanged for a sixth-round pick in the Carolina-Las Vegas deal, Perryman made the first Pro Bowl of his career.

After the Pro Bowl year, Perryman now appears to be a bit underpaid as he’s set to earn just over $3MM this year. The inside linebacker position tends to run cheaper than others on the defense. The top paid players at the position (Colts linebacker Shaquille Leonard, $19.7MM annual average value, and Jets linebacker C.J. Mosley, $17MM AAV) have impressive annual salaries. Behind them, though, the top players in the game average anywhere from $8MM per year (Steelers linebacker Myles Jack) to $14.5MM per year (Titans linebacker Zach Cunningham). In terms of talent and ability, Perryman absolutely falls within this range, but there are a few other aspects to a new deal that may affect the final number.

The first factor in a new contract is age. Perryman is 29-years-old this season and, while he seems to be playing the best football of his career, approaching the 30-year mark is often a harbinger of decline in play. There are plenty of exceptions to the rule at the position, though. Bobby Wagner just signed a five-year, $50MM deal to join the Rams at 31 years old. Perryman’s older doppelganger, Lewis, played well into his 30s, collecting first-team All-Pro and Pro Bowl accolades as late as 34 and 36 years old, respectively. So while his age may play a factor into the length of any new deal he receives, the fact that he is playing better than he ever has previously should help in making sure his age doesn’t diminish his value.

The second factor facing Perryman’s extension efforts is injury. Injuries have long plagued the veteran’s career. In his full seven years of play, Perryman has never once appeared in every game of the season. His healthiest season came last year when he started and played in 15 games. He missed two regular season games due to an ankle injury that, later, forced him to leave the Raiders’ playoff battle against the Bengals last year. Over the course of his career, Perryman has suffered an array of injuries ranging from his ankle to his shoulder including an LCL tear in his knee, hamstring sprains, and pectoral strains. The silver-lining here, similar to above, is that he displayed a durability last year unmatched by any previous season. If he is only getting healthier, then the amount he receives should not be adjusted too much. It should be expected, though, that his injury history may affect the guaranteed amount that receives.

An extension for Perryman likely keeps him under contract for another two or three years. If the team intends to reward Perryman for his Pro Bowl production last year, his AAV could get up to $10MM. It might be a bit more likely for his contract to end up around $8MM or $9MM per year. My guess is that, if the Raiders were to decide to extend him, it would be something like a three-year, $27MM deal with a guaranteed amount of $9MM.

The Raiders didn’t invest any draft picks this year in young linebackers and the linebackers they brought in through free agency, Jayon Brown, Kenny Young, and Micah Kiser, don’t seem to be any threat to steal Perryman’s playing time. It seems like an ideal time for both sides to come to an extended agreement, then. The Raiders can secure their leader at linebacker for the next few seasons and Perryman can cash in on his newly inflated value.

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