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Offseason In Review: Denver Broncos

June 27th, 2022 at 7:05pm CST by Sam Robinson

After making five straight playoff berths from 2011-15, a stretch that included four consecutive AFC byes and two Super Bowl appearances, the Broncos have drifted well off that pace. Years in quarterback wilderness followed Peyton Manning‘s 2016 retirement. But the 2022 offseason represents a significant step toward the franchise moving back onto the contender track.

This season should feature the Broncos as a more formidable operation, and it doubles as a chance to see how promising Denver’s oft-discussed skill-position corps really is. A loaded AFC West hovers over Denver’s offseason rise, but the franchise has clear reasons for optimism. A team frequently labeled as a QB away from mattering in the grand scheme now has its coveted passer.

Trades:

Linked to Aaron Rodgers for nearly a year, the Broncos began this offseason’s trade avalanche by completing a deal for a quarterback five years younger. Denver was never linked as a true Deshaun Watson suitor, and its 2021 Matthew Stafford offer was far less enticing than the one the Rams made. But the Broncos had also not been closely connected to Wilson, who left the team off his list of acceptable trade destinations during the 2021 offseason but included them (albeit quietly) later in the year. He will now have a chance to craft an interesting second act.

The Seahawks bailed midway through their franchise quarterback’s third contract, not eager to pay the new going rate for the 33-year-old star whose current $35MM-per-year deal topped the market at the time (April 2019). This opened the door for the Broncos to fill one of the NFL’s longest-standing needs. Other teams pursued the decorated QB — from the Panthers to the Eagles to the Commanders, with Washington offering three first-rounders — but Wilson only ended up waiving his no-trade clause for the Broncos.

If 2020’s Kendall Hinton-quarterbacked contest is counted, the Broncos match Washington with an NFL-most 11 starting QBs since 2016. An inability to generate above-average QB play through trades (Joe Flacco, Teddy Bridgewater), free agency (Case Keenum) or the draft (Lock, Paxton Lynch) dragged Denver from an AFC power to a team with a lower-middle-class ceiling. This descent prompted second-year GM George Paton to fork over one of the biggest trade hauls in NFL history — though a package not quite as valuable as some expected — to make a clear upgrade.

The quarterback that helped Seattle decimate a depleted Denver team in Super Bowl XLVIII, Wilson grew into a top-flight passer in the years that followed. While the Seahawks transitioned from a team built around the Legion of Boom to a Wilson-centric operation, Pete Carroll insisted on keeping a run-oriented offense in place. The Seahawks also frequently skimped on offensive line investments. The Broncos do not boast a high-end O-line, either, but this could be the deepest collection of skill-position talent Wilson has enjoyed. Injuries and inconsistent QB play have limited Denver’s armada of highly drafted receivers (feat. steady ex-UDFA Tim Patrick) from making much of an impact. The Courtland Sutton–Jerry Jeudy–K.J. Hamler trio appears set for its most relevant NFL stretch.

Coming back after just three games from his right middle finger tendon rupture, Wilson did not look himself for much of the season’s second half. He finished with a career-low 54.7 QBR, but the ex-Seattle cornerstone represented the main reason the post-Super Bowl XLIX Seahawk editions remained contenders. Wilson put up his first two 4,000-yard seasons in 2019 and ’20 and eclipsed 30 touchdown passes from 2017-20, topping out with 40 in 2020. The Broncos have surpassed 20 TD passes as a team just once in the past seven seasons. They have not ranked in the top half of the league in scoring or total offense in that span. These stats may well come up during Wilson extension talks.

Set to tailor their offense to the relocated passer’s strengths, the Broncos will bet on Wilson bouncing back in a Nathaniel Hackett-led attack likely to feature more passing opportunities compared to the future Hall of Famer’s previous setup. From 2012-21, the Seahawks ranked 32nd in pass attempts — by a wide margin — with 30.4 per game. This season will double as a referendum on the Seahawks’ Wilson-era strategy, at least in the years since Marshawn Lynch‘s prime ended, and a chance for the 11th-year QB to show he is capable of thriving in a pass-first offense for an extended stretch.

Notable signings:

Last year’s Von Miller trade afforded the Broncos flexibility to reach deep into their draft assets to acquire Wilson, but it left the team with its most glaring edge need since Miller’s 2011 arrival. While rumors emerged about the Broncos pulling a Yankees-like Aroldis Chapman maneuver — trading a player at the deadline and then re-signing him the following offseason — they went with Gregory at a lower rate. Gregory reneged on a Cowboys contract at the 11th hour, spurning his seven-year (off-and-on) employer due to language that made it easier to void guarantees.

Signing the former suspension mainstay is a gamble for the Broncos; the 2015 second-rounder has been banned four times for substance-abuse policy violations. Between the 2016, ’17 and ’19 seasons, Gregory combined for two games. This could give him a “young 29”-type presence, due to limited wear and tear, but Gregory also missed time with a calf injury and has been limited this offseason due to shoulder surgery. Still, Gregory’s early-season surge in 2021 (five sacks, 11 QB hits and two forced fumbles in a four-game span), before his calf issue paused that stretch, created a live market. How Gregory lives up to his first notable NFL contract will determine the Broncos’ post-Miller pass-rushing outlook.

The Broncos now feature an interesting edge situation, one that houses former top-five pick Bradley Chubb, frequent fill-in starter Malik Reed and second-round pick Nik Bonitto. But if Gregory cannot recapture the near-All-Pro-caliber form he showed early last season, Denver’s plan could crumble. If Gregory can craft a post-Dallas prime arc, the Broncos having him tied to a $14MM-per-year pact — at a time when 21 edge rushers out-earn him — would present a roster-building advantage.

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Poll: How Should Panthers Proceed At QB?

June 23rd, 2022 at 1:58pm CST by Sam Robinson

Without a long-term quarterback plan since injuries began to keep Cam Newton off the field, the Panthers have attempted to land big fish at the position for a bit. But they have been unable to do so, leaving the team with a major question at the game’s premier position in a rather important year for Matt Rhule.

Carolina made serious efforts to trade for Matthew Stafford, offering a first-round pick and change, and Deshaun Watson, whom the team was linked to for over a year. Neither panned out, with the Rams swooping in late for a player who has since become a Super Bowl-winning QB. Although the Falcons were believed to be the second-place finishers for Watson, the Panthers also balked at the $230MM guarantee the Browns authorized. An inquiry into Russell Wilson‘s status went nowhere, with the longtime Seahawks QB prioritizing a Denver move.

The Panthers still have Sam Darnold, whom they acquired for three draft choices — including a second-round pick — last year. Darnold, 25, struggled through an injury-interrupted 2021 season, putting his status as Carolina’s 2022 QB in doubt. But the Panthers, upon trading for the former Jets top-three pick, exercised the scuffling passer’s fifth-year option. Darnold is guaranteed $18.9MM this year, and Rhule has praised his work this offseason.

The primary reason for the frequent Carolina-centric headlines this offseason, Baker Mayfield, 27, remains on the team’s radar. An early report this offseason indicated neither the Panthers nor Mayfield were on-board with a trade that moved the former No. 1 overall pick to Charlotte, but the NFC South team has come around. The Panthers have been by far the team most closely connected to Mayfield, having engaged with the Browns in trade talks during the draft and resuming them recently.

How Mayfield’s fully guaranteed $18.9MM salary would be divvied up would seem a somewhat minor hiccup, at least compared to the prospect of making a QB upgrade, but that component has stalled the talks for several weeks. The Browns were believed to offering to pay barely $3MM of Mayfield’s salary during the mid-draft talks, but they have since upped that figure to around $10MM. The Panthers have wanted the Browns to pay nearly $14MM of the figure. Cleveland holds the NFL’s most cap space, with Carolina at No. 2. It would seemingly benefit the Panthers to make this deal soon to give Mayfield as much time as possible to learn Ben McAdoo‘s playbook, and the Seahawks are lurking in the event Mayfield is cut.

Jimmy Garoppolo looms as an option as well, but Carolina is not believed to be interested in trading for him. The four-plus-year 49ers starter is tied to a $26.9MM base salary — one that becomes fully guaranteed in Week 1. The Panthers would be interested if the 49ers cut him, though the 30-year-old passer is coming off a three-injury season — one culminating with a throwing-shoulder surgery that paused his trade market.

Teams can certainly hold out to see if the 49ers — who have Deebo Samuel and Nick Bosa extensions on their docket but hold little in cap space — blink on Garoppolo’s salary ahead of his guarantee vesting. But the Panthers waiting that long runs the risk of Garoppolo not joining the team until just before the regular season. That would not put him in good position to succeed. Although frequently scrutinized, Garoppolo did rank 12th in QBR in 2019. That Super Bowl-qualifying campaign also marked his only healthy season in the past four.

Ranking 29th in 2021 QBR, Darnold trailed a hobbled Mayfield (27th) last season. Mayfield’s best QBR season (2020, when he ranked 10th) outpaces Darnold’s by a notable margin. A 25th-place finish in 2019 is Darnold’s best mark, and although he has not been given a favorable draw in four seasons, the USC product teeters on the bust cliff. That said, Mayfield’s 2020 is the outlier in his past three seasons, a span that included a 2019 regression and the injury-plagued 2021 that is leading him out of Cleveland.

The Panthers have outfitted Darnold with a better offensive line this year, and a healthy Christian McCaffrey would make a difference. But are Darnold (or third-rounder Matt Corral, who profiles as a longer-term project) and healthy versions of Mayfield and Garoppolo close enough in ability to venture into training camp without Carolina making a move? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on this situation in the comments section.

Extension Candidate: David Montgomery

June 19th, 2022 at 8:59pm CST by Adam La Rose

In recent years, a select number of running backs have received sizeable second contracts. Given his performances early in his career, and his importance to the Bears’ offense, David Montgomery could be the next in line for a new deal.

The 25-year-old had a productive college career at Iowa State. In his final two years in particular, he took on a heavy workload, ranking second and first in the Big 12 in carries in 2017 and 2018, respectively. He put up similar numbers across his sophomore and junior campaigns, totalling 2,362 rushing yards, an additional 453 yards through the air and 24 touchdowns.

That production made him one of the highest-rated backs in the 2019 draft class. He was firmly on Chicago’s radar, and the Bears traded up to N0. 73 to select him. As a result of the Khalil Mack trade, Montgomery represented the team’s top pick that year, something which heightened expectations as he entered the league. During that offseason, the Bears traded away Jordan Howard and signed Mike Davis, teaming the veteran with Tarik Cohen. 

Montgomery spent his rookie season splitting snaps with latter in particular. He was still able to start eight games and total over 1,000 scrimmage yards, however. That made it an easy transition for him to take over as a workhorse back in 2020, when Cohen began experiencing the injury troubles which limited him to three games that year, and cost him the entire 2021 campaign. Montgomery had the best season of his career to date, ranking fifth in the NFL with 1,070 rushing yards.

Having demonstrated his abilities both on the ground and in the passing game, expectations were once again high for the five-foot-eleven, 224-pounder heading into 2021. The Bears’ offense still featured Allen Robinson and was in line for a significant change at quarterback, with the team having drafted Justin Fields. Those two never generated the chemistry many were expecting, though, leaving Montgomery as the team’s top offensive weapon once again. He was limited to 13 games due to a knee injury, but still managed to record 1,150 scrimmage yards and score seven touchdowns.

In part because of Montgomery’s production on one hand, and the decided lack of consistently effective players around him on the other, he has accounted for nearly one-quarter of the Bears’ offense during his career. That figure ranks seventh in the league across that span, leaving him (especially in the absence of Robinson, who signed with the Rams in free agency) as the undisputed focal point of Chicago’s attack.

How much the team’s front office – now led by general manager Ryan Poles – is willing to pay him, knowing that fact, becomes a central question. In the absence of an extension being signed this summer, much will depend, of course, on his level of play in 2022 under new head coach Matt Eberflus. Fields is now the unquestioned starter, and is understandably expected to take a significant step forward. As for the backfield, Montgomery will be supported by 2021 sixth-rounder Khalil Herbert (who impressed in his rookie season) and, in all likelihood, Trestan Ebner, whom the team drafted this April.

From a financial standpoint, the running back position has seen a notable upward trend in recent years. A total of eight backs are now under contract for at least $12MM per season, from 2016 draftees Ezekiel Elliott and Derrick Henry to, most recently, Nick Chubb. Given his production, Montgomery may be the likeliest candidate for an extension amongst members of the 2019 class (the other most notable ones being Josh Jacobs, who had his fifth-year option declined by the Raiders, and Miles Sanders, who hasn’t been given as large of a workload by the Eagles).

On the final year of his rookie contract, Montgomery will earn a base salary of $2.8MM, while carrying a slightly higher cap hit. The rebuilding Bears rank third in the league in cap space right now, and first in projected space for 2023, so affording even an above-market extension likely wouldn’t be problematic. As detailed by ESPN’s Courtney Cronin, Montgomery isn’t focusing on his financial future heading into his contract year, however.

“At the end of the day, whether I’m going into my second year or my first year, I’ve still got to play football,” he said. “I could really care less about contracts, the contract terms and things, but I’m excited to be here for another year and play with my guys too.”

Free Agent Stock Watch: WR Willie Snead

June 18th, 2022 at 8:48pm CST by Adam La Rose

A look at Willie Snead‘s early statlines in the NFL suggest that he would have put together a lengthy career as at least a high-end No. 2 receiver by this point of his tenure. That hasn’t taken place, and his 2022 season has left him on the open market deep into the offseason. 

The former UDFA found a home with the Saints in 2015. In his first two years with New Orleans, he put up significant numbers: 141 catches, 1,879 yards and seven touchdowns. Those campaigns also saw him record two of his three highest yards-per-catch averages, as he demonstrated his ability to move the chains on a consistent basis. Things have taken a significant turn since then, however.

After an eight-catch season in 2017, the Ball State product was on the move in free agency. He joined the Ravens via an offer sheet, as one of three veteran additions the team made to its receiving corps. Snead joined Michael Crabtree and John Brown in Baltimore, who had Joe Flacco as the starting quarterback at the time. By the midway point of that season, though, Lamar Jackson had taken over, beginning the team’s transition to the run-heavy offense which remains in place to this day.

Snead still received 95 targets that year, totalling 62 receptions and 651 yards. It earned him a one-year extension in 2019, but he has yet to produce at that level in the proceeding years. Competing for looks in Baltimore’s low-target offense with the likes of Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews, Snead recorded 64 catches and 771 yards between 2019 and 2020. To no surprise, he was on the move again last spring.

The five-foot-11, 200-pounder signed with the Raiders, a decision which further reduced his offensive role. In Las Vegas – a passing attack centered around Darren Waller and, in 2021 in particular, Hunter Renfrow – he played just 38 offensive snaps. Seeking a new destination and a larger workload, Snead asked for, and was granted, his release in October. He finished the year in Carolina, one of his brief NFL homes before those highly-productive years in New Orleans.

In a recent interview with Tyler Dunne of GoLong.com, Snead, 29, made his case for a free agent deal, making sure to stress his need for an effective team fit. “I feel like I’ve been in every type of offense this league can throw at me,” he said. “And I’ve mastered all of it. Going into another year… I’ve got four or five years left in me. I want my next place to be the right place so I’m not getting lost again.”

Snead offers a different skillset to some of the other wideouts still on the market, such as Julio Jones and Will Fuller. A reunion with Baltimore would make sense on paper, given the team’s lack of experience in its receiving corps, but the nature of his departure (along with remarks he made about the team’s passing scheme in the aforementioned interview) would surely rule that out. Indianapolis is another team which has been named as a potential landing spot for a veteran, though T.Y. Hilton represents the likeliest candidate for a deal with the Colts.

The Titans could be in need of a complimentary wideout, given the overhaul of their WR room this offseason. With Robert Woods coming off of a torn ACL, Tennessee could look to add a low-cost slot option to take attention away from first-rounder Treylon Burks. In any event, Snead, who added that he is “the furthest thing from retiring,” should find a new home in the coming weeks on a short-term deal to rebuild his value.

Poll: How Will Ravens’ Lamar Jackson Negotiations End?

June 17th, 2022 at 5:12pm CST by Sam Robinson

Since the 2011 CBA reshaped rookie contracts and extension windows, Lamar Jackson is traversing one of the most original paths of any rookie-deal player. While Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott laid the groundwork for quarterback patience leading to bigger deals down the road, Jackson is a former first-round pick — thus delaying this process — and proceeding without an agent.

The fifth-year quarterback resumed extension talks with the Ravens this week. This saga veered into new territory this offseason, when Steve Bisciotti, Eric DeCosta and John Harbaugh all indicated Jackson was not prioritizing an extension. The former MVP echoed his usual pro-Baltimore comments this week by saying he expects to finish his career with the Ravens. Even for Jackson to play into his late 20s with the team, some significant business must be completed.

While the 25-year-old star QB is coming off a down year — at least compared to his stratospheric 2019 and solid 2020 — he still made his second Pro Bowl. Despite throwing a career-high 13 interceptions (in just 12 starts), Jackson has seen Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson change the quarterback market by reeling in Patrick Mahomes less than two years after his market-reshaping extension.

Watson’s contract — an unprecedented five-year, $230MM deal that came fully guaranteed — stands to play a role in Jackson’s talks with the Ravens, Kyler Murray‘s with the Cardinals, and pertain to other standout QBs soon up for extensions. Teams will try to treat Watson’s deal as an outlier. Players and agents will not. Jackson said, not in so many words, Watson’s Browns extension is not factoring into his approach with the Ravens, via The Athletic’s Jeff Zrebiec (subscription required).

In speaking to the media for the first time in five months, the Jackson also kept most of his plans close to his vest by using versions of the phrase “we’re in conversations” eight times during his minicamp-wrapping availability session. His non-answer regarding playing this season on his rookie deal — a $23MM fifth-year option sum — was notable. So is the fact he remains on his rookie pact after being extension-eligible for 18 months. This differs wildly from Murray’s blueprint, with the Cardinals’ dual-threat QB wanting a deal ahead of his fourth season. Most modern-era first-round QBs have followed Murray’s path.

Is Jackson’s patience wise? It is difficult to judge his tactics when it is not known what the Ravens are offering. A November 2021 report indicated Jackson was gunning for a Mahomes-level $45MM-per-year contract, while the Ravens were not there. With Watson’s fully guaranteed $46MM-AAV pact coming to pass four months later, Jackson is in a strong position to cash in now. Waiting worked for Prescott, who saw 2016 draft classmates Carson Wentz and Jared Goff sign their extensions in 2019. The Cowboys starter waited until the 2021 March tag deadline to ink a far more lucrative deal (four years, $160MM; $95MM fully guaranteed).

Making the Ravens face the threat of a QB franchise tag price (approximately $35MM) clogging their 2023 payroll could provide Jackson more leverage, but not cashing in now could also hurt his value. Jackson finished 17th in QBR last season — down from first in 2019 and seventh in 2020 — and became a superstar mostly because of his gifts as a runner. The NFL’s single-season QB rushing yardage record holder suffered a sprained ankle that ended his 2021 season early. A 2022 Ravens edition thinner at wide receiver does not figure to reduce Jackson’s run-game involvement much. Jackson’s 615 carries through four seasons are 148 more than any other quarterback in NFL history compiled to that point, with Cam Newton in second. Newton’s shorter-than-expected prime could serve as a warning for Jackson.

Then again, Prescott suffered a severe ankle malady during his 2020 franchise tag season and cashed in months later. The Ravens extended Joe Flacco following his fifth season — by far his most notable, with a Super Bowl XLVII-winning run leading to a then-QB-record deal — but that re-up backfired. Bisciotti already mentioned the Cousins route (two tags and a free agency bid), raising the stakes for these negotiations. As could be expected, the Ravens are not presently entertaining a Jackson trade, Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com notes. If this saga begins down the Prescott path, would the team bail before it approaches the Cousins stage?

How and when will this saga end? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.

This Date In Transactions History: Thomas Davis Signs Extension With Panthers

June 15th, 2022 at 10:10pm CST by Ben Levine

“I now get to officially end my career as a Carolina Panther and that means the world to me.”

That’s how Thomas Davis responded to the two-year extension he inked on this date in 2015. Of course, like most sports stories, things rarely work out as expected.

The 14th overall pick out of Georgia back in 2005, Davis was a key member of the Panthers defense for more than a decade. While the linebacker was limited to only seven games between the 2009 and 2011 seasons, he otherwise missed only nine contests in his 11 healthy seasons with the organization. By the time 2015 came around, Davis had already racked up nearly 750 tackles to go along with 17.5 sacks, six interceptions, and 13 forced fumbles.

He was a Panthers icon, and with only one year remaining on his contract, he was eager to ink one last deal with the only organization he had ever played for. So, on June 15, 2015, the two sides agreed to a two-year extension that would last through the 2017 campaign. In total, the player earned about $6MM per year on the new deal, which was a modest amount for a linebacker eyeing the end of his career.

In an unpredictable twist, Davis was about to go on the best three-year stretch of his career. During his age-32 campaign in 2015, the veteran earned his first-career All Pro nod and Pro Bowl appearance, and he was wildly productive in three postseason contests. He’d earn Pro Bowl spots in 2016 and 2017, as well. Prior to that 2017 season, Davis inked one more extension, this time for one year. Heading into that 2018 campaign, the linebacker made it clear that it would be his last season.

After sitting out the first four games for violating the league’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs, he ended up starting all 12 of his appearances in 2018, finishing with 79 tackles. That 2018 season ended up being a disappointment for the Panthers; after having made the postseason in four of the previous five seasons, Carolina failed to crack the playoffs after going 7-9. This disappointment apparently influenced Davis to give it another go, but the Panthers weren’t interested in a reunion, with Davis telling reporters that the organization wanted “to go in a different direction” at the position.

“I wanted to be back,” Davis said (via NFL.com). “I wanted to be part of a group that came and just [righted] the wrongs that we had this season. As one of the leaders of this team, I took full responsibility for some of the things that we allowed to happen and the games that we lost consecutively. I wanted to come back and wanted to help fix that. Unfortunately I’m not going to have that opportunity.”

Davis ended up catching on with the Chargers for the 2019 campaign, collecting 112 tackles in 16 starts. After getting into seven games with Washington in 2020, the linebacker decided to hang up his cleats.

While Davis thought he was going to end his career with the Panthers following that 2017 campaign, a late-career breakout changed some things. Fortunately for the player, he still got his wish to retire with the Panthers when he inked a one-year contract with the team in March, 2021.

Poll: Which AFC Team Had Best Offseason?

June 11th, 2022 at 10:11pm CST by Sam Robinson

Due to a flurry of additions, the 2022 AFC presents a crowded competition for playoff and Super Bowl LVII access. Some of the top-tier teams addressed key weaknesses, and several middle-class squads took big swings in respective aims to improve their chances this season.

The fallout paints a picture in which barely any AFCers can be truly counted out for playoff contention. Future Hall of Famers, potential Canton inductees, and Pro Bowlers moving from the NFC — along with various intra-AFC changes — have made for one of the most captivating offseasons in modern NFL annals. While the offseason is not yet complete, most of the acquisition dominoes ahead of training camp have fallen. Which team did the best work?

With Russell Wilson joining the Broncos, the AFC West’s Wilson-Patrick Mahomes–Derek Carr–Justin Herbert quartet appears of the great quarterback armadas any division has fielded in the five-plus-decade divisional era. The Broncos gave up two first-round selections in a five-pick deal but were able to hang onto their young receivers. Denver, which moved to a younger coaching staff headed by first-time HC Nathaniel Hackett and two rookie coordinators, also added defenders Randy Gregory and D.J. Jones. Going from the Teddy Bridgewater–Drew Lock combo to Wilson represents one of the top gains any team made this offseason, but Denver’s divisional competition will not make improvement easy.

Entering the final year in which Herbert must be tied to his rookie contract, the Chargers addressed several needs. They added defensive help in free agency, via J.C. Jackson and Sebastian Joseph-Day, and traded second- and sixth-round picks for Khalil Mack. The team also extended Mike Williams at $20MM per year — days before the wide receiver market dramatically shifted — and drafted right guard Zion Johnson in Round 1.

The Raiders were partially responsible for the wideout market’s explosion, trading first- and second-round picks for Davante Adams and extending him at $28MM per year. That came shortly after the team’s Chandler Jones addition. Las Vegas’ Josh McDaniels–Dave Ziegler regime has greenlit extensions for Reggie McKenzie– and Jon Gruden-era holdovers — from Carr to Maxx Crosby to Hunter Renfrow. Will a Darren Waller deal follow?

Of last season’s conference kingpins, the Chiefs and Titans endured the biggest losses. Hill and Tyrann Mathieu‘s exits will test the six-time reigning AFC West champs, while last year’s No. 1 seed balked at a monster A.J. Brown extension by trading him to the Eagles for a package headlined by a 2022 first-rounder. Both teams did address some needs early in the draft, but the Bengals and Bills look to have definitively improved their rosters.

Cincinnati augmented its bottom-tier offensive line by signing La’el Collins, Alex Cappa and Ted Karras. The defending AFC champions retained almost their entire defense, though Jessie Bates is not especially happy on the franchise tag. Buffalo reloaded as well, adding Von Miller to a defensive line that has lacked a top-end pass rusher for a while. The team swapped out ex-UDFA Levi Wallace for first-round cornerback Kaiir Elam, and James Cook is the Bills’ highest running back draftee since C.J. Spiller 12 years ago. How significant will the Brian Daboll-for-Ken Dorsey OC swap be?

Although Cincy’s AFC North competition made improvements, some caveats come with them. The Ravens filled their center and right tackle spots, with first-rounder Tyler Linderbaum and veteran Morgan Moses, and are now flush with safeties following the arrivals of Marcus Williams and Kyle Hamilton. But Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson situation has reached a strange stage, with the top three Ravens power brokers indicating the former MVP has not shown extension interest. Cleveland landed Amari Cooper for Day 3 draft capital and, on paper, rivaled Denver’s QB upgrade. Historic draft compensation and a shocking $230MM guarantee was required for the Browns to pull it off. But their Deshaun Watson trade has generated considerable drama — to the point the ex-Texans Pro Bowler cannot be considered a lock to play in 2022.

Oddsmakers do not expect the Jaguars’ moves to translate to 2022 contention, but the team did hire a former Super Bowl-winning coach in Doug Pederson and spend wildly for lineup upgrades — from Christian Kirk to Brandon Scherff to Foye Oluokun — and used two first-round picks (Travon Walker, Devin Lloyd) to further upgrade its defense. Going from Urban Meyer to Pederson should offer stability to a franchise that has lacked it, never more so than in 2021.

The Jets chased big-name receivers for weeks but came away with Garrett Wilson in a highly praised three-first-rounder draft. New York’s last-ranked defense now has new pieces in first-rounders Sauce Gardner and Jermaine Johnson, along with DBs Jordan Whitehead and D.J. Reed. Miami made a stunning coaching change by firing Brian Flores, which produced a tidal wave of controversy, but the now-Mike McDaniel-led team also paid up for splashy additions in Hill and Terron Armstead while retaining steady edge rusher Emmanuel Ogbah.

Are there other teams that warrant mention here? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on the new-look AFC in the comments section.

Extension Candidate: T.J. Hockenson

June 9th, 2022 at 3:50pm CST by Adam La Rose

Tight ends have been in plenty of headlines this offseason, as the position continues its recent upward financial trend. Aside from the players who were franchise tagged recently, one of the top candidates for a long-term deal is T.J. Hockenson.

The soon-to-be 25-year-old made a name for himself at Iowa, a college which has become a TE factory in recent years. He put up a modest 24 receptions during his first season there, facing stiff competition for targets in the form of Noah Fant. Still, he averaged over 13 yards per catch, a figure which – like all others – he was able to improve upon the following year.

In 2018, Hockenson turned 49 receptions into 760 yards and six touchdowns. Other than the touchdown total, his statistics outshone those of Fant; he also showcased the blocking ability which made him the most well-rounded TE in the 2019 draft class. To little surprise, he was given the Mackey Award at the end of the campaign.

Widely considered a lock to be a top-10 pick, the 6-foot-5, 248-pounder ended up going eighth overall to the  Lions. That made him the teams’ intended replacement for Eric Ebron, who had departed one year earlier after four seasons with the team. Hockenson showed promise as a rookie, dropping only two passes on 59 targets. His season came to a premature end, though, due to an ankle injury. Given the potential he flashed, and the central role he began to assume in the team’s offense, expectations were high for his second campaign.

2020 didn’t disappoint. Playing a full season, Hockenson was one of only five tight ends to receive 100 targets, putting up 67 catches (which ranked fourth at the position) for 723 yards (third) and six scores (tied for fifth). His performance backed up his draft pedigree and earned him his lone Pro Bowl nod to date.

Injuries became an issue once again last year, however. Hockenson found himself on season-ending IR in December, this time due to thumb surgery. By that point, he had still posted 583 yards and four touchdowns, cementing his status as Jared Goff’s favorite target. He also registered a career-high 84% snap share, setting up to be a pillar of the team’s offense for at least the next two seasons.

To no surprise, the Lions picked up Hockenson’s fifth-year option in April. That will give him a 2023 salary of $9.39MM, a sizable raise from the earnings of his rookie pact. He is now eligible for further long-term security, though, which should see him join the $10MM-per-year club at the position. Currently, 10 tight ends are at or above that mark (the total rises to 11 if one adds Taysom Hill, whose quarterbacking days with the Saints are believed to be over), including franchise tag recipients Mike Gesicki and Dalton Schultz.

The other TE to be tagged this offseason was David Njoku, whom the Browns have subsequently signed to a four-year, $54.75MM pact. That deal will no doubt loom large in future negotiations, including those between the Lions and Hockenson. Regardless of its weight, though, a sizable new contract could be coming soon for the latter.

Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press reports that “many around the NFL” believe an extension will get done this summer. There is less urgency due to the option, but Hockenson has expressed a willingness to stay in Detroit long-term, saying “I want to [win] here so bad.” Doing so may become more likely, given the ascendancy of receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown late last season, coupled with the additions of former Pro Bowler DJ Chark in free agency and first-rounder Jameson Williams in the draft. Those three may eat into Hockenson’s target share, but they should help boost the team’s overall passing game.

A lucrative deal for Hockenson would mark the second straight offseason in which Detroit locked up one of its best young players. The team signed center Frank Ragnow to a record-setting deal last May, showing general manager Brad Holmes‘ willingness to make long-term commitments as early as possible. That eagerness seems to be reciprocated by Hockenson himself.

“I don’t really know much, [and] I don’t really care to know much” with respect to contract talks, he said. “When that time comes to sign a piece of paper, I’ll do that.”

How Will Broncos Proceed With Crowded OLB Corps?

June 8th, 2022 at 3:24pm CST by Sam Robinson

Visions of a long-term Von Miller–Bradley Chubb edge partnership mostly proved fleeting for the Broncos, who saw injuries sideline at least one member of this tandem for most of its three-plus-season tenure. The 2018 season, when Miller and his then-rookie sidekick combined for 26.5 sacks, turned into a mirage.

The Broncos’ 2022 contingent of edge rushers presents intrigue, even if it is the first in 12 years not to include the best pass rusher in franchise history. Denver’s Miller trade allowed the team to finish stockpiling its cast of pass rushers, bringing second- and third-round 2022 picks, but with only Randy Gregory locked in as a long-term starter (and given Gregory’s history, that classification might be premature), how the team proceeds with this crew will be interesting ahead of what promises to be a high-profile division race.

Gregory signed a five-year, $70MM deal in March, backing out of a Cowboys agreement at the last minute due to contract language. Suspended four times as a pro, Gregory showed considerable promise during his final Dallas season. If that form is a true indicator of the former second-rounder’s form, the Broncos having him signed to a $14MM-per-year deal will age well as the salary cap’s rise has pushed edge rusher salaries toward the $30MM-AAV mark. Gregory, whose drug suspensions could give him a “young 29” presence, carries boom-or-bust potential. From a roster-building standpoint, more questions surround his supporting cast.

Chubb made the Pro Bowl in 2020, despite accumulating just 7.5 sacks and one forced fumble, and racked up 12 sacks as a rookie. But the two ankle surgeries he underwent last year brought limitations and questions about his future in Denver. (Chubb also sustained an ACL tear in 2019.) George Paton identified the former top-five pick as a core player, and while those comments came before the ankle trouble limited Chubb to seven games in a zero-sack season, the second-year GM expressed Chubb confidence again this year. Paton did extend 2018 second-round pick Courtland Sutton, whom he also called a core talent last year, after an ACL tear. Chubb, 26 later this month, will enter a high-stakes contract year, with Paton reorganizing the team’s edge-rushing stable after the February vote of confidence.

An extension path may still exist for Chubb. Gregory’s AAV checks in just 22nd among edge defenders, and the Chargers and Raiders each have two edges earning north of $17MM per year. But that prospect is murkier than it was last year at this time. Had Chubb not been a first-round pick, he may already be signed to a lucrative deal. The fifth-year option allowed the Broncos to wait, and the team will have cheaper options to flank Gregory beyond 2022 — when Russell Wilson will be playing on a top-market contract.

Denver rosters Malik Reed, a former UDFA who has seen extensive run (34 starts) due to Chubb and Miller’s injuries, and used its top draft choice on Oklahoma edge Nik Bonitto (64th overall). The team also has ex-Ohio State teammates Jonathon Cooper and Baron Browning. Cooper fell to Round 7 because of a heart issue (one that did not keep him out of games last season) and flashed a bit after the Miller trade. The Broncos curiously moved Browning from inside linebacker — where they are much thinner. A 2021 third-rounder, Browning started nine games inside as a rookie.

It will be difficult for the team to roster all six, and its recent penchant for UDFA edge success (Reed, Shaq Barrett) creates a path for Christopher Allen, a 2020 Alabama contributor who missed last season due to a foot injury. The Broncos gave Allen $180K to sign after the draft.

Also in a contract year, Reed has registered 13 sacks over the past two seasons. Though lesser-known than Chubb, Reed profiles as an extension candidate himself. The Broncos would probably stand to save by extending Reed over Chubb, who also looms as a 2023 franchise tag option. Chubb staying healthy this season could create a clear value gap between the two. Denver also has defensive end starter Dre’Mont Jones going into a walk year, creating an unsettled post-2022 mix beyond Gregory and Bonitto.

With Paton-era OLB investments behind Reed, would the Broncos consider trading the frequent fill-in starter ahead of his contract year? They only gave Reed the low-end RFA tender ($2.4MM) in March. That price and Reed’s recent production could be attractive for teams with thinner edge cadres. Chubb is tied to a $12.7MM option salary. A mix of Gregory, Chubb and Reed would limit Bonitto’s rookie-year time. But injuries could obviously change that.

The Broncos faced a surplus situation at cornerback last year but refrained from dealing into it, despite teams showing interest. Chubb’s injury history could prompt Denver to carry an extra outside linebacker on its 53-man roster. Browning’s ability to play on the inside would seemingly represent insurance for an iffy group of inside ‘backers as well. But carrying six edges is on the high end for 3-4 teams.

However the Broncos decide to proceed here, their moving parts on the edge should be a situation to monitor as the revitalized team attempts to compete against high-powered offenses. How that effort goes, particularly from the John Elway-era holdover rushers, will determine how the franchise chooses to complement Gregory beyond 2022.

Extension Candidate: Roquan Smith

May 31st, 2022 at 1:41pm CST by Sam Robinson

Although the Bears have a new regime in place, one that has gutted the previous staff’s front seven, Roquan Smith‘s status with the organization still appears secure.

One season, at a fifth-year option price of $9.74MM, remains on the linebacker’s rookie contract. New Bears GM Ryan Poles is planning to discuss a Smith extension, per Adam Jahns of The Athletic (subscription required). The prospect of a new deal before the season looms, though it is not a lock.

“I don’t know if that’s how we’re going to handle it, but I would like to,” Poles said, via ESPN.com’s Courtney Cronin. “Obviously the earlier you get to that, the better. But also with a new staff, we may wait a little bit, too.”

The rebuilding Bears no longer have too much money tied to their defense, with several veteran deals coming off their books in March. Smith, who said in April he “absolutely” seeks a long-term Chicago stay, represents the team’s front-seven cornerstone and would make sense as the first big defensive investment for Poles and Matt Eberflus. Though, the off-ball linebacker market has changed considerably since the Ryan Pace regime drafted Smith.

The talented off-ball ‘backer has been a starter since going off the 2018 draft board eighth overall, teaming with Danny Trevathan in Vic Fangio-, Chuck Pagano– and Sean Desai-coordinated 3-4 schemes. The Bears are shifting to a 4-3 alignment under new Eberflus, but teams pay up for defenders’ sub-package usage. Smith, 25, has been a three-down player throughout his career.

Smith is coming off another strong season, one in which he paired 163 tackles with three sacks and a pick-six. He has 14 career sacks and also accumulated 30 tackles for loss over the past two seasons. Smith’s 30 TFLs since 2020 not only lead all off-ball linebackers by a wide margin; that total sits second to only T.J. Watt among all linebackers. While no Pro Bowls appear on Smith’s resume, the four-year veteran has received second-team All-Pro nods in each of the past two years.

Poles has moved four Pace-era extensions off the roster, taking on some dead money to do so. He signed off on cutting Trevathan, a six-year Chicago starter, and nose tackle Eddie Goldman, who was a D-line first-stringer for six years. The Bears traded Khalil Mack, severing ties with the All-Pro edge rusher after four seasons (and taking on $24MM-plus in dead money). Six-year D-end starter Akiem Hicks signed with the Buccaneers on Tuesday. Robert Quinn has been with the Bears two years and broke Richard Dent‘s single-season team sack record in 2021. But the 11-year veteran does not seem a fit on a team that looks unlikely to contend this season. Quinn, 31, is believed to want out. Smith, however, is much younger than his longtime teammates, being squarely in his prime.

Smith’s option price would have been higher were he selected to a Pro Bowl. That promises to come up once the Bears begin negotiations in earnest; so do the second-team All-Pro accolades. The top of the linebacker market moved last year, with Fred Warner ($19MM per year) and Darius Leonard ($19.7MM AAV) using the C.J. Mosley and Bobby Wagner contracts as springboards to raise the ceiling of a positional landscape that looked drastically different prior to Mosley’s 2019 Jets pact ($17MM AAV).

Eberflus’ past with Leonard certainly bodes well for Smith. Still, a gap between the Leonard-Warner-Mosley tier and the field exists. Only two other traditional linebackers — Deion Jones (on a 2019 extension, one that may be shed soon) and ex-teammate Foyesade Oluokun — currently earn at least $14MM per year. The salary cap’s renewed growth, following its second-ever reduction in 2021, also stands to help extension-seeking players this year.

The gaps in between these linebacker salary tiers create some space for Smith’s camp to negotiate while also injecting some uncertainty into the talks. Smith can set his price above Jones ($14.25MM per year), Oluokun ($15MM AAV) and probably Mosley, but it will be interesting to see how the Bears’ new regime values him in comparison to first-team All-Pros Warner and Leonard.

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