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The Highest-Earning Former UDFAs

July 16th, 2022 at 12:07pm CST by Ben Levine

The Seahawks recently gave a two-year, $12MM deal to defensive tackle Bryan Mone, a significant pay day for a former undrafted free agent. While Mone earned life-changing money, he still has a long way to go when it comes to career earnings among UDFAs. There are currently 18 active former undrafted free agents who have made more than $30MM in their respective careers.

We’ve listed the top-20 highest-earning UDFAs below (h/t to Spotrac.com). The list includes current free agents:

  1. LT Jason Peters: $117.2MM
  2. CB Chris Harris: $68.0MM
  3. G Andrew Norwell: $52.5MM
  4. WR Adam Thielen: $50.7MM
  5. DE Mario Addison: $49.1MM
  6. LB Shaquil Barrett: $47.1MM
  7. CB Malcolm Butler: $44.7MM
  8. QB Case Keenum: $44.1MM
  9. K Robbie Gould: $43.7MM
  10. QB Chase Daniel: $39.8MM
  11. RT La’el Collins: $38.9MM
  12. WR Danny Amendola: $38.0MM
  13. K Matt Prater: $33.8MM
  14. K Graham Gano: $33.6MM
  15. K Justin Tucker: $33.5MM
  16. S Rodney McLeod: $33.3MM
  17. S Tony Jefferson: $31.0MM
  18. QB Brian Hoyer: $30.9MM
  19. WR Robby Anderson: $29.5MM
  20. LB Cory Littleton: $28.9MM

Some observations:

  • Peters runs away with the top spot on the list. Despite his career earnings, he’s only earned one sizable extension during his career: a six-year, $60MM deal he signed with the Eagles in 2009. Over the next decade, Peters mostly inked one-year deals to stick with the Eagles.
  • The most common position on the list? Kickers. That’s partly a reflection on how the position is treated in the draft; the majority of the league’s kickers have to start their careers as UDFAs. It’s also a reflection of the longevity of the four kickers on the list, especially Gould. The soon-to-be 40-year-old has signed three contracts longer than four years.
  • Keenum earned the majority of his money to be a starter with the Broncos, but the other QBs on the list have mostly made their money as career backups. Despite only having five career starts, Daniels has signed four different contracts that are worth more than $10MM total. Similarly, the Patriots were more than happy to keep Hoyer around for about $1.5MM per season to be the main backup to Tom Brady, although Hoyer also benefited from big contracts from the Texans and 49ers.

Franchise Tag Roundup: Bengals, Chiefs, Cowboys, Dolphins Table Talks To 2023

July 15th, 2022 at 10:36pm CST by Sam Robinson

For the first time since 2018, the summer franchise tag deadline day did not produce an extension. The past three years brought deadline-day deals for Taylor Moton, Derrick Henry, Chris Jones, Grady Jarrett and Robbie Gould. None of the four teams who still had tagged players could hammer out a deal Friday, however.

Bengals safety Jessie Bates, Chiefs left tackle Orlando Brown Jr., Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki and Cowboys tight end Dalton Schultz remain attached to their franchise tag prices ($12.9MM, $16.7MM, $10.9MM, $10.9MM, respectively). They are prevented from negotiating with their teams again until the 2022 season ends. The four teams can apply second franchise tags to these players in 2023, at 120% of their 2022 tag prices.

  • The Chiefs and Brown came closest to a deal. Although the Chiefs reached an extension agreement with Frank Clark upon trading a first-round pick and change for him in 2019, they postponed Brown negotiations last year. When the sides came to the table, after Brown earned a Pro Bowl nod for his first season as a full-time left tackle, the fifth-year blocker had a new agent and wanted a deal that made him the highest-paid offensive lineman. The Chiefs were willing to go there, but on their terms. What amounts to a dummy year in the contract’s final season led Brown to turn down a six-year, $139MM extension offer. Although failed tag talks often lead to separations the following year, it would surprise if the Chiefs — considering the compensation they parted with for Brown in 2021 — did not make a strong effort to extend Brown in 2023.
  • Less clarity emerged with the other three tag negotiations, but the Bengals‘ five-year offer and reported guarantee of around $17MM — which would be a fringe top-10 mark at the safety position — did not bring Bates to sign an extension. The fifth-year defender wanted to be the NFL’s highest-paid safety, per Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (video link). Minkah Fitzpatrick moved that number to $18.2MM per year this summer. Bates expressed interest in re-signing with the Bengals in 2021, after he posted a strong 2020 season. Following a less impactful 2021 regular season, Bates rebounded with critical playoff contributions. The Bengals, who drafted safety Daxton Hill in Round 1 and have Vonn Bell under contract for one more season, may be willing to let Bates test free agency a year from now. But Bell’s contract-year status may well keep Bates in the fold beyond 2022.
  • A lot of Schultz news came out this offseason, including a late rumor of a possible deal coming to fruition. But scant optimism about a Cowboys long-term deal surfaced. Dallas cuffed its top tight end and, with Schultz having signed his tender, he can be fined daily for not reporting to training camp. Although Schultz left OTAs to make a point about negotiations, he showed for Cowboys minicamp. The sides, however, appeared far apart. Ahead of Friday’s deadline, they had not negotiated in weeks. Contract length was an issue for Schultz’s camp. While Dak Prescott‘s contract is an exception, the Cowboys prefer five- or six-year extensions. No deadline-day magic occurred, and Schultz may become a bigger part of Dallas’ offense, with the team having traded Amari Cooper shortly after tagging its tight end.
  • It does not sound like substantial Gesicki-Dolphins talks occurred this offseason. Though, Gesicki was interested in an extension. After the former second-round pick broke through for a 703-yard, six-touchdown 2020 season, the team did not make an extension ahead of his 2021 contract year a priority. Gesicki then posted a 780-yard slate. That was enough to move Miami to keep the Penn State product off the free agent market. Gesicki should play a key part in a critical Tua Tagovailoa season, but with Tyreek Hill‘s $30MM-per-year contract now on Miami’s books, other Dolphins skill players may be affected.

The Browns (David Njoku), Buccaneers (Chris Godwin), Jaguars (Cam Robinson) and Packers (Davante Adams) saw their tagged players land extensions. Adams’ money, of course, came from the Raiders, who gave their new All-Pro weapon a five-year, $140MM extension — a deal that impacted Hill’s Chiefs talks and one that has two lofty nonguaranteed salaries in its final two years — after Adams voiced a preference to reunite with Derek Carr out west. Njoku becoming the NFL’s fourth-highest-paid tight end, after not matching either of Gesicki or Schultz’s best seasons, likely became an issue in the Cowboys and Dolphins’ respective negotiations.

Bates and Brown have not signed their tenders. This would allow each to skip training camp without being fined. The 2020 CBA prevents teams from waiving fines for holdouts, pointing to Gesicki and Schultz showing up. Bates is not expected to attend camp, and Brown hinted at staying away for a while. The Bengals and Chiefs’ tagged performers have until Nov. 15 to sign their tenders, or they cannot play in 2022. Multiple defensive linemen (Sean Gilbert and Dan Williams, the latter a Chiefs tag recipient) followed through with skipping seasons after being tagged in the late 1990s, but Le’Veon Bell (2018) is the only player to pass on a guaranteed salary by skipping a full season while attached to the tag this century.

Offseason In Review: Indianapolis Colts

July 14th, 2022 at 11:05pm CST by Sam Robinson

After Indianapolis’ seven-Pro Bowler squad was poised to become the sixth non-strike-year team to go from 0-3 to the playoffs, a collapse nixed that distinction and brought more change. An irate Jim Irsay led the way to the Colts again making a switch at quarterback, swiftly pivoting from Carson Wentz and bringing in Matt Ryan.

When Ryan makes his Indianapolis debut in Week 1, the Colts will join an exclusive club. Fewer than 10 teams since 1970’s AFL-NFL merger have started six straight seasons with different Week 1 QBs. Entering this offseason, that list stood at five. It will balloon to eight, largely because of Irsay’s Wentz-related directive. Both the Colts and Commanders, along with the Broncos, will go into a sixth straight season with a different starting quarterback. Will Ryan be the one that stops this carousel and makes a quality Indianapolis roster relevant in the Super Bowl chase?

Trades:

Indianapolis’ past six Week 1 starters certainly outdistance Denver and Washington’s sextets for star power, but only Andrew Luck has won a Colts playoff game during this span. A franchise that had Peyton Manning start every game for 13 years and rostered Luck for seven more has moved from Scott Tolzien to Luck to Jacoby Brissett to Philip Rivers to Wentz to Ryan over the past six openers. Brissett worked as the team’s primary starter over this span, but the team has since made three high-profile QB moves. The latest caused the most ripples.

Shortly after the Broncos submitted their top post-Manning QB-fix measure, acquiring Russell Wilson, the Colts sent Wentz to Washington. To say Irsay soured on Wentz would be understating the team’s transition. After giving up first- and second-round picks for the ex-Frank Reich Eagles pupil, the Colts were put off by the QB’s leadership struggles, his refusal to get vaccinated against COVID-19 and his being at the center of one of the NFL’s worst collapses in years.

Based on the tepid markets that emerged for Baker Mayfield and Jimmy Garoppolo, the Colts collecting a haul of three Day 2 picks for Wentz represents a coup for GM Chris Ballard, who benefited from Ryan’s desire to relocate to Indianapolis. As the Falcons ate an NFL-record $40.52MM in dead money by trading Ryan, the Colts did not take on any for moving Wentz.

Deshaun Watson fallout immediately hit Carolina, Atlanta and New Orleans, but Indiana soon felt the impact of the seismic trade. Ten years ago, the 49ers made a strong push for Manning. Days after the QB legend picked the Broncos, the 49ers extended then-starter Alex Smith as a patching-up effort of sorts. The Falcons took the opposite path with Ryan. After the team’s Watson meetings leaked out, Falcons GM Terry Fontenot let Ryan speak with the Colts. The talks led quickly to a deal for a mere third-round pick.

To tally an early scorecard here, here is how the compensation packages rank for starting QBs this offseason:

  1. The Texans received three first-rounders, a third and two fourths for Watson
  2. The Seahawks collected two firsts, two seconds, a fifth and three players (Noah Fant, Shelby Harris, Drew Lock) for Wilson
  3. The Colts landed a second-round pick, a third and either a 2023 second or third for Wentz
  4. The Falcons recouped this year’s No. 82 overall pick for Ryan
  5. The Browns managed a 2024 fourth- or fifth-rounder for Mayfield

Following the Ryan trade, the Falcons regrouped with Marcus Mariota. The Saints then retained Jameis Winston, whom the Colts discussed a deal with during their 12-day period between Wentz and Ryan. Just as they did after releasing Manning in 2012 (leading to Luck at No. 1 overall) and letting Brissett walk in 2020 (leading to Rivers), the Colts regrouped well. Considering what has happened in Denver and Washington in recent years, Indianapolis has enjoyed good fortune in filling its QB1 gig.

The Colts are already willing to commit to Ryan for two seasons, despite the former MVP entering his age-37 campaign. How Ryan fares this season will determine how quickly Indianapolis needs to consider making a significant draft investment at the position — one it has continually addressed with stopgap measures post-Luck.

Reich has raved about Ryan’s initial Indy offseason, but the 2016 MVP/Super Bowl LI starter has gone five years without even making the Pro Bowl as an alternate. Perhaps exposing some flaws in ESPN’s Total QBR metric, Wentz (ninth) ranked 12 spots ahead of Ryan in 2021. Ryan, however, ranked 16th (2020), 14th (2019) and ninth (2018) in the previous three years. The Falcons also saddled their aging, immobile passer with one of the NFL’s worst offensive lines and, after Calvin Ridley‘s early-season departure, had lost both their talented receiver starters (Ridley and Julio Jones) in four months. Last season probably should not be used as a primary gauge on Ryan, who has proven durable (one career missed game) and above-average passer throughout his career.

The Colts will outfit the steady signal-caller with an offensive line featuring three high-end blockers (Quenton Nelson, Ryan Kelly, Braden Smith) and a running back (Jonathan Taylor) who won the 2021 rushing title by 552 yards — the biggest gap since Chris Johnson led the league by 590 in 2009. Then again, the Colts do not exactly have many answers at their skill positions beyond Michael Pittman Jr. But Reich coaxed a 27-to-7 touchdown pass-to-interception ratio from Wentz, a more erratic passer compared to Ryan. Barring a notable skill diminishment, it should be a good bet Ryan can better complement the Colts’ well-rounded roster. Though, another wide receiver addition certainly would help.

Although the Colts ranked eighth in 2021 defensive DVOA, no player recorded more than seven sacks. No defensive end currently on Indy’s roster registered more than Kwity Paye‘s four. The Colts opted not to replace Justin Houston with a veteran last season, but they smartly reversed course here a year later. Ngakoue will team with Gus Bradley in a third city, after the two worked together in Jacksonville and Las Vegas, and provide the Colts with a proven edge rusher.

Positioning themselves as the beneficiary of the Raiders replacing Ngakoue, 27, with a 32-year-old Chandler Jones, the Colts have a prime-years edge rusher with five seasons of at least eight sacks on his resume. Ngakoue (10 2021 sacks) tied for 16th (with Jones) with 36 QB pressures last season, when he ranked 14th with 12 QB knockdowns. Ngakoue’s 47.5 sacks since 2017 are tied for sixth in the NFL.

His presence alongside DeForest Buckner will benefit Paye and 2021 second-rounder Dayo Odeyingbo, with the seventh-year veteran’s scheme familiarity being an added bonus in this equation. Given Ngakoue’s fit with Bradley, it would not surprise if the Colts entered extension talks. One season, on a $13MM cap number, remains on former third-rounder’s Raiders-constructed deal.

Big on extending their own under Ballard, the Colts punted on a Ya-Sin re-up. Despite taking on more money by trading a rookie deal for a veteran contract, the Colts added a scheme fit and a more consistent defender. Ya-Sin will also cost more in 2023, as the Raiders now have the former second-rounder in a contract year. Landing Ngakoue here is better than a mere 2024 compensatory pick, though Ya-Sin’s departure forced the Colts to start over at outside cornerback.

Notable signings:

Moving on from both their starting outside cornerbacks from last year — Ya-Sin and Xavier Rhodes — the Colts will bet on Gilmore having at least one more quality season in him. Indianapolis’ Gilmore contract was out of step with what other 30-something corners Patrick Peterson and Casey Hayward received in free agency, but the former Patriots stopper is not too far removed from authoring one of the most dominant seasons in modern cornerback history. Since Gilmore’s 2019 Defensive Player of the Year campaign (six INTs, 44.1 passer rating as the closest defender), however, he missed 12 games because of a quad injury. While Gilmore played only 304 defensive snaps with the Panthers last season (two INTs, 78.6 passer rating allowed), Pro Football Focus rated him just outside the top 10 at the position.

Gilmore played out the five-year, $65MM deal he signed with the Patriots in 2017 and elevated his profile considerably on that contract. The Patriots signed off on a 2020 raise as well. But Gilmore, like Chandler Jones, did miss out on joining his peers atop the market while he excelled on what became a team-friendly accord.

This Colts payday comes in well below where Gilmore, who expressed dissatisfaction with his contract during the 2020 and ’21 offseasons, sought to be. Gilmore’s path illustrates the risk of signing long-term deals, but while the 11th-year defender was unable to climb to the Jalen Ramsey earnings tier, the Colts guarantee bumps him past $90MM in career earnings. Not too bad. Indianapolis was able to revive Rhodes’ value, but with both he and Ya-Sin gone, the team is counting on Gilmore (32 in September) to remain an upper-echelon player.

Like Ngakoue, Facyson, 27, will join Bradley in a third city. The former Chargers and Raiders corner started nine games with Las Vegas last year but made just four starts over the previous three seasons. The Colts will ask either Facyson, a former UDFA, or 2020 sixth-rounder Isaiah Rodgers to start alongside Gilmore. Regardless of who wins this battle, the Colts’ CB2 spot will feature less experience. While Pro Bowl slot man Kenny Moore anchors Indianapolis’ corner crew, Gilmore staying healthy appears paramount to the team’s 2022 defensive success.

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Bill Belichick’s Success (Or Lack Thereof) With WR Draft Picks

July 13th, 2022 at 9:55pm CST by Ben Levine

When the Patriots chose N’Keal Harry during the 2019 draft, it was the first time the organization had selected a first-round WR during Bill Belichick‘s reign. Fast forward three years, and the Patriots pawned off Harry for a seventh-round selection.

[RELATED: Bears To Acquire N’Keal Harry From Patriots]

Doug Kyed of Pro Football Focus recently explored Harry’s struggles in New England and what ultimately led to his trade to the Bears. This naturally led to another (and persistent) story of Belichick’s inability to find production from his receiver draft picks. Since Belichick took over in 2000, the Patriots have used 19 draft picks on the position. As Kyed notes, only three of those players (Deion Branch, David Givens, and Julian Edelman) started more than 20 games in the NFL. About half of those picks were selected in the fourth round or earlier, and many (like Harry) struggled to ever carve out a role in New England’s offense.

As sources told Kyed, part of this is on the Patriots’ strict offense and their unwillingness to tolerate rookie mistakes:

  • “Just picking up the system that has been in place for 20 years and the type of routes and adjustments. Sometimes they just need to get the best damn players the ball and not be cute.”
  • “It borders on impossibility for a guy fresh out of college.”
  • “New England is a tough place for young players, not just because of the terminology, but it’s because if you mess up, you’re out. They’ll pull you out of the game.”

Now, Harry’s inability to stick in New England can’t be entirely put on the organization; sources also attributed Harry’s failures to a lack of maturity, work ethic, and commitment. Still, looking at Belichick’s list of WR draft picks is a bit damning:

Branch and Edelman were both Super Bowl MVPs. Givens was one of Tom Brady‘s preferred targets for a bit, and Matthew Slater eventually became a ST ace. Otherwise, the team’s best picks at the position are probably Braxton Berrios and Brandon Tate, who both experienced NFL success outside of New England, and/or Malcolm Mitchell and Aaron Dobson, who combined for 1,099 career receiving yards.

Of course, even outside of Belichick’s Super Bowl rings, it’s hard to be too critical. While you could attribute much of the Patriots’ offensive success to Brady, it was still Belichick who brought in a revolving door of receivers via trade (highlighted by Randy Moss and Wes Welker) and free agency (including the likes of Danny Amendola and Brandon Lloyd). He also hit on his tight ends (led by Rob Gronkowski) and pass-catching backs (led by James White). Belichick even got some production from UDFAs, most recently Jakobi Meyers. Sure, he burned plenty of draft picks at the position, but it wasn’t like he completely compromised Brady’s receiving corps.

Brady and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels are now out of the picture. It will be intersting to see how a young receiver like second-round rookie Tyquan Thornton will fare alongside quarterback Mac Jones and a revamped offensive coaching staff guided by former defensive coordinator Matt Patricia and former special teams coordinator Joe Judge. As Kyed notes, Belichick has mentioned a desire to “streamline” the offense heading into the 2022 campaign, and that potential change in mentality could have an impact on young receivers going forward.

Latest On Texans’ Receiver Situation

July 13th, 2022 at 6:25pm CST by Ely Allen

After finishing the 2021 season as one of the five teams with the lowest passing yardage totals, the Texans made some moves this offseason to address their passing game. Houston utilized the draft in order to bring in some high-level, young protection and weapons for their second-year quarterback. As Houston starts to work towards a final regular-season roster, the Texans are looking to have a solid two-deep throughout the wide receiver position on their depth chart. 

The top three receivers on the depth chart are easy decisions. Brandin Cooks is going into his third year with the team after coming over from the Rams. The eight-year veteran has taken a leadership role in Houston’s receivers room, leading the team in receiving yards and receptions during both years with the team. Cooks acted a bit as rookie quarterback Davis Mills‘ security blanket last year, getting more than twice as many targets as the next receiver on the team.

The other two receivers in the starting lineup are inexperienced but promising. Second-year receiver Nico Collins stepped up during his rookie season. In the absence of Will Fuller, the team’s No. 2 receiver in the prior season, the third-round pick was second on the team in receptions and receiving yardage despite missing three games. Collins could have a breakout season with the development of Mills and Brevin Jordan, the expected starting tight end, as well as the draft addition of John Metchie III.

Metchie was drafted in the second-round this year to add another spark to the room. In his two full seasons at Alabama, Metchie totaled 2,058 receiving yards on 151 catches with 14 touchdowns. The only reason not to project Metchie to surpass Collins this year is the fact that Metchie is still recovering from a torn ACL suffered in Alabama’s SEC title game this past season. Houston drafted him with the understanding that he may miss some time to start his career but sounded hopeful recently that he could play this year.

Beyond the starting three of Cooks, Collins, and Metchie, Houston has a few solid backup options. Veteran Chris Conley returns on another one-year deal after finishing third on the team in receiving yards last season. Conley had shown the ability to be a starter during his time in Jacksonville. His best career season came as a Jaguar when he started 14 games, catching 47 balls for 775 yards and five touchdowns.

Another veteran returning on a one-year deal is midseason addition from last year Phillip Dorsett II. Dorsett’s career has been largely disappointing as a former first-round pick out of Miami (Fla.). His career highs for a season are 59 catches for 528 yards during his second year in Indianapolis and five touchdowns during his last season in New England. The deep threat will continue his search for the right team fit as a back up in Houston.

A sixth roster spot is likely going to come down to Chris Moore or Chad Beebe. Moore signed with Houston last year after five years in Baltimore that slowly saw his usage decline toward the end of his tenure. In his first season with the Texans, Moore was able to catch a career-high 21 passes, recording 227 yards and two touchdowns as a result. Beebe had the best statistical season of his career during his third season in Minnesota (2020). Very similar to Moore, Beebe had 20 catches for 201 yards and two touchdowns. Both may find their way onto the roster through special teams roles, though, as Beebe has punt return experience from his time with the Vikings and Moore has kick return experience from his time with the Ravens. Houston’s main return man from last year, Andre Roberts, is now with the Panthers, though they did utilize defensive back Desmond King II on punt returns last season.

That’s the six- to seven-deep Houston will work with to start the season: Cooks as a bona fide No. 1, Collins and Metchie striving to be effective early in their careers, and a stable of veterans ready to contribute. On paper, it doesn’t look like a huge upgrade, but the potential for a break-out season from Collins and the addition of a potential new No. 2 receiver in Metchie, could really open things up for Mills and the Texans offense.

Four Players Remain On Franchise Tag; Extension Deadline Friday

July 11th, 2022 at 12:21pm CST by Sam Robinson

The teams that still have players tied to the franchise tag have until 3pm CT Friday to reach extension agreements with the tagged performers. Otherwise, those players will play the 2022 season on the tag.

This year has brought a better success rate for tags leading to extensions, at least compared to the past two offseasons. Four of the eight players given the tag in March have signed extensions. That betters the 2020 (2-for-14) and 2021 (3-for-9) success rates. While Chris Godwin (Buccaneers), Cam Robinson (Jaguars), David Njoku (Browns) and Davante Adams (Packers; traded to Raiders) agreed to deals, the rest of this year’s group remains unsigned.

Here is how that quartet stands entering deadline week:

S Jessie Bates, Cincinnati Bengals

This looks like the most contentious of this year’s remaining tag situations. Bates, 25, discussed his disappointment about the lack of a Bengals extension ahead of his 2021 contract year and admitted not receiving a long-term deal affected him during the season. The former second-round pick, who rebounded with a postseason run featuring two interceptions and six pass deflections, voiced opposition to the franchise tag in February. Absent a long-term deal, the fifth-year defender is not expected to show for Bengals training camp. Bates, who has not signed his franchise tender, is tied to a $12.9MM tag figure. The Bengals hold $15.8MM in cap space.

Cincinnati has Vonn Bell on a $6MM-per-year deal, one that expires at season’s end, and used a first-round pick on safety Daxton Hill. The team has some notable players who become extension-eligible after 2022, notably Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins, and they may not be prepared to extend Bates on the level of Minkah Fitzpatrick ($18.2MM per year) or Jamal Adams ($17.5MM AAV). With the Bengals potentially eyeing Marcus Williams‘ five-year, $70MM Ravens deal, this impasse has created “bleak” negotiations leading up to the deadline.

The Bengals have taken care of homegrown defenders in the fairly recent past, giving both Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins two extensions and re-signing Dre Kirkpatrick in 2017. They also have let productive starters go, as evidenced by the departures of Andrew Whitworth, Kevin Zeitler, William Jackson and Carl Lawson. Zeitler signed a then-guard-record deal with the Browns in 2017; is Bates headed for free agency after a rental year?

T Orlando Brown Jr., Kansas City Chiefs

This situation has not produced as many headlines as Bates’ over the past year, but the Chiefs are a few days away from going to year-to-year with their left tackle. Brown is tied to a $16.7MM tag but is pursuing a deal that makes him the NFL’s highest-paid offensive lineman. Trent Williams, whom the Chiefs pursued in free agency last year before pivoting to a Brown trade, currently holds that title ($23MM per year). The league has three $20MM-AAV O-linemen (Williams, David Bakhtiari and Laremy Tunsil). For Brown to commit to a long-term deal, he would need to be the fourth. The Chiefs hold $14.3MM in cap space.

The Chiefs gave up their 2021 first-round pick for Brown, in a deal that also sent a Ravens second-rounder to Kansas City. Brown hired an agent that did not have an NFL client at that point, seeking a representative without relationships with front offices. The former Ravens third-rounder delivered an ominous message to his current team last month. Addressing the AFC West arrivals of Chandler Jones, Khalil Mack and Randy Gregory, Brown said it is “not the year to go into the season with a backup left tackle.” The sides have begun talks, which was the Chiefs’ plan upon acquiring Brown in 2021. But these could, as many tag stalemates do, go up to the deadline.

In moving from a right tackle the Ravens did not have in their long-term plans to a Chiefs Pro Bowler given the tag, Brown has shown a knack for maximizing his value. Like Bates, Brown has not signed his franchise tender, giving him the option of skipping training camp free of charge. The Chiefs have just one O-lineman, Joe Thuney, signed to a notable veteran deal. It would seem the franchise is prepared to give Brown a big-ticket extension. If the 26-year-old blocker is intent on surpassing Williams’ deal, it will test the Chiefs’ commitment.

TE Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins might be eyeing a rental season here. Gesicki signed his franchise tender and has expressed interest in a long-term Miami deal. But the team may want to see more from the former second-round pick. Less than a week before the deadline, the sides have not done much work on an extension. Njoku’s $14.2MM-per-year pact can reasonably be viewed as a Gesicki target, with the Dolphins tight end producing two seasons — yardage-wise — that outpaced Njoku’s best year. Even before Njoku’s extension, the Dolphins and their tagged tight end were not close on a re-up. The Dolphins hold $16.5MM in cap space.

Mike McDaniel reshaped the Dolphins’ offense this offseason, and on just a $10.9MM franchise tender, the Penn State product makes sense as a rental piece. This represents a crucial year for Tua Tagovailoa, and the Dolphins kept one of his top targets off the market. Gesicki, 26, could join this year’s other tagged tight end as a 2023 free agent. It would cost the Dolphins 120% of this year’s tight end tag figure to cuff Gesicki again in 2023.

TE Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys frequently hammer out extensions, preferring deals that last at least five years. That preference has impacted the Schultz talks, with the Njoku contract undoubtedly factoring into this equation as well. Throughout the offseason, the Cowboys and Schultz have not been close on an agreement. Schultz, 26, did not finish OTAs with the team, citing dissatisfaction with his contract talks for leaving. He later circled back for mandatory minicamp. Despite little momentum emerging for much of the offseason, these negotiations still have a chance of producing an agreement ahead of Friday’s deadline. The Cowboys hold $22.5MM in cap space; Schultz has signed his tender.

Unlike Gesicki’s situation, the tight end tag talks in Dallas have continued throughout the offseason. The $10.9MM payment obviously represents a major raise for the former fourth-round pick, but as Blake Jarwin‘s injury issues have shown, players can lose value quickly. The Cowboys paid Jarwin ahead of his career-altering injuries, and Schultz has been a far more effective weapon, as evidenced by his 808-yard, eight-touchdown 2021 season. The Cowboys were wise to keep him off this year’s market, with Amari Cooper being traded and Michael Gallup unlikely to start the season on time.

If Schultz and the Cowboys cannot agree on terms by Friday, his status as a key Dak Prescott target stands to position the Stanford alum for a big payday as a 2023 UFA. Then again, the Cowboys have re-tagged multiple players — Prescott and DeMarcus Lawrence — over the past five years.

Offseason In Review: Las Vegas Raiders

July 10th, 2022 at 10:49pm CST by Sam Robinson

The Raiders’ first playoff berth in five years and second since 2002 included a minus-65 point differential and a 21st-place DVOA ranking. The Broncos and Chargers then loaded up their rosters in the offseason, with the likes of Russell Wilson, Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson entering the AFC West. Along with the Chiefs, who were largely responsible for the Raiders’ historically bad (for a playoff entrant) point differential, the other two Raider rivals’ reloads increase the degree of difficulty for the Silver and Black in 2022.

But Las Vegas’ offseason did not signal a short-term step back as part of a bigger-picture plan. The Raiders’ moves indicate their new regime believes this is a team on the cusp. Davante Adams and Chandler Jones trekking to Vegas rounds out what figures to be one of the more fascinating divisional races in modern NFL history. The Raiders will enter that derby with more preseason hype than they’ve received in nearly 20 years.

Trades:

The Deshaun Watson trade doubled as the offseason’s highest-profile move, aided by the many controversies it spurred. But the Raiders’ decision to reunite Adams and Derek Carr produced the biggest fallout. The ex-Packers All-Pro’s $28MM-per-year contract is a somewhat deceiving deal that includes two whopping salaries ($35.6MM and $35.7MM) in its final two years to move the AAV past DeAndre Hopkins‘ previous high-water mark. The extension still calls for nearly $66MM to be guaranteed by March 2023, and Green Bay’s tag-and-trade maneuver triggered a receiver-market earthquake.

Most notably, the Raiders’ decision led Tyreek Hill out of the AFC West. The Chiefs’ unrivaled speed threat raised his asking price following the Adams accord. Rookie Raiders GM Dave Ziegler could deserve gamesmanship points for that ancillary consequence, with Hill leaving Kansas City for Miami less than a week later. On the field, Adams will be the best wideout of Carr’s career and probably (depending on how you feel about Wes Welker) the top receiver to play in a Josh McDaniels system since Randy Moss.

Adams arrived in Vegas with considerable momentum, with his back-to-back All-Pros aiding Aaron Rodgers to consecutive MVPs. Although Adams and Carr famously played together at Fresno State, we will soon learn more about Rodgers’ impact on Adams’ NFL success. The situations are different, but the Raiders acquiring Jordy Nelson (at 33) did not go well. The prospect of Vegas unleashing the well-rounded Adams-Hunter Renfrow–Darren Waller trio on secondaries presents tremendous intrigue. The modern Raiders have not deployed a troika quite like this, which should keep Carr’s mid-career rise on course.

Betting on a receiver remaining elite into his early 30s is a risk the Raiders were willing to take, with the Adams deal’s practical guarantees running through 2024. (The ninth-year veteran turns 30 in December.) Of the top 35 receiving yardage numbers since 2012, only two came from 30-somethings (Andre Johnson and Brandon Marshall, both at 31).

For a minute (literally, as the transactions came seconds apart) a strange reality in which the Raiders rostered Ngakoue, Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones unveiled itself. But the team quickly revealed its plans by making Ngakoue, 27, a Vegas one-and-done. Ngakoue and Jones totaled 36 pressures last season, but the former will follow Gus Bradley from Nevada to Indiana. Ngakoue, who will play for Bradley in a third city, worked as a fine Crosby sidekick in tallying 10 sacks and two forced fumbles. The Raiders are betting Jones, despite being five years older, will be a better Crosby edge bookend.

Ya-Sin is coming off his best season, which Pro Football Focus ranked as a top-30 campaign among 2021 cornerbacks. The Raiders now have a contract-year corner to evaluate. Ya-Sin is expected to team with Trayvon Mullen outside, with potential slot standout Nate Hobbs accompanying them on most downs. The Raiders effectively chose Ya-Sin, a 2019 second-rounder, over giving Casey Hayward a slight raise.

Edwards’ exit leaves the Raiders without their first six picks from the 2020 draft. The former third-round pick follows first-rounder Henry Ruggs (waived in November 2021), first-rounder Damon Arnette (waived in November 2021), third-rounder Tanner Muse (waived in September 2021) and third-rounder Lynn Bowden Jr. (traded in September 2020) in not making it to Year 3 with the Raiders. The 6-foot-3 target showed a bit more promise as an NFL sophomore (571 receiving yards), but the Ziegler-McDaniels pair identified outside help to staff the team’s tertiary receiver spots.

Notable signings:

Low-cost performers, including a batch of ex-Patriots, came to Vegas in droves this year. But the team spent notable cash on a couple of defenders. Jones fronts that pack, with the six-year Cardinal committing to the NFL’s other desert city. Similar to the Adams trade, the Raiders are betting on the back end of a star’s prime. With Crosby rushing on the other side and a slew of ex-New England staffers running the Raiders now, this is probably the ideal locale for Jones (107.5 career sacks) to maximize his early 30s and push for a Hall of Fame spot. McDaniels, Ziegler and new DC Patrick Graham were with the Patriots throughout Jones’ four-year Foxborough run.

Jones’ 2020 biceps injury and the ex-first-rounder’s age during his Cards contract year worked against him maximizing his value. The two-time All-Pro watched several younger edge rushers pass his 2017 extension. T.J. Watt has since moved the position’s AAV ceiling to $28MM. Jones’ All-Pro seasons came in 2017 and ’19, and while earning $16.5MM on average for five years is nothing to complain about, the Syracuse product’s bad timing kept him from a salary tier he probably deserved to infiltrate. But Jones still did well to cash in with the Raiders, who guaranteed the first two years of his $17MM-AAV deal.

Jones, 32, did enough to earn All-Decade acclaim and bounced back from his injury with a 10.5-sack 2021 season. Granted, five of those came in one game — a Week 1 barrage against the Titans, the first game after Cardinals management did not grant his offseason trade request — but Jones’ 26 QB hits matched his 2019 season. The Raiders have rostered Khalil Mack, the 2016 Defensive Player of the Year, and deployed the Ngakoue-Crosby duo for a year. But Crosby and Jones being signed long-term together forms what is probably the team’s top edge duo this century.

The Titans did not make Brown an offseason priority, letting him go for barely the league minimum. But coverage is the four-year starter’s strong suit. Considering Brown signed for $5.3MM last year and rated as a top-20 PFF linebacker from 2018-20, this could be a quality buy-low bet. Brown, 27, could play a three-down role alongside Denzel Perryman. Injuries over the past two years dropped Brown’s price, but linebackers with his skillset and resume are worth more than $1MM.

Hollins, Cole and Robinson will tag in to fill the spots of Edwards, DeSean Jackson and Zay Jones. While McDaniels will surely flood his top three skill-position players with targets, the Raiders did not draft a receiver. Openings for Carr’s Nos. 3 and 4 wideouts exist.

Cole, 29, comes in with the most experience, having led the Jaguars’ surprising AFC championship game-qualifying outfit in receiving (748 yards). The Division III product showed deep-threat capabilities in 2017, with 17.8 yards per reception, but has not matched that output since. Robinson is accustomed to seeing favorable coverage, having been on a team with Hill and Travis Kelce throughout his career. Jones and Edwards ranked in the top 15 in 2021 average depth of target (14.0 yards apiece). Seeing how the post-Ruggs/D-Jax Raiders dial up deep opportunities and round out their receiving corps will be somewhat interesting to start this season.

Similar to the incoming wideouts, the Raiders shuffled out their interior D-linemen. Well, save for Hankins, who has now signed four Raiders contracts during a five-year tenure. A fifth-round pick, Nichols broke into the Bears’ starting lineup as a rookie — on a defense full of veteran front-seven contracts — and remained part of the team’s upper-echelon, Mitchell Trubisky-restricted defenses from 2019-20. Nichols racked up eight sacks and 22 QB hits over the past two seasons. The Raiders did not stop with Nichols, adding four more vets (Butler, Lancaster, Kyle Peko and Andrew Billings) and drafting two interior D-linemen on Day 3. Las Vegas ranked 19th against the run last season.

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Release Candidate: Dolphins RB Salvon Ahmed

July 10th, 2022 at 9:51pm CST by Ely Allen

Two years ago, injuries decimated the Dolphins’ running backs room, leading to Miami turning to two former Washington Huskies: Myles Gaskin, drafted in the seventh round of the 2019 NFL Draft, and Salvon Ahmed, an undrafted rookie in 2020. After some eventual health and free agent additions over the following two years, it’s looking like Gaskin and Ahmed may be battling for a roster spot, according to ESPN’s Marcel Louis-Jacques. 

In the 2020 NFL season, Gaskin and Ahmed were the teams two leading rushers in terms of yardage. Gaskin led the team with 584 yards on 142 attempts, while Ahmed was second on the team with 319 yards on 75 carries. Both had three rushing touchdowns, trailing only Jordan Howard who scored touchdowns on 4 of his 28 carries.

Ahmed’s rookie season saw him start four games. Two of those starts still hold as his best career games. His first career start saw him run for 85 yards on 21 carries with a touchdown. His third start, five weeks later, saw him rush for 122 yards on 23 carries while scoring his second touchdown of the season.

In 2021, Ahmed was relegated back to a backup role. Gaskin started the most games for the Dolphins with 10 while Duke Johnson, now with the Bills, and Malcolm Brown, currently a free agent, started the seven remaining games. Regardless of starts, Ahmed still finished third on the team in carries and rushing yards behind only Gaskin and Johnson.

The 2022 offseason saw the Dolphins go shopping in the free agent market, signing three new running backs to the roster. Raheem Mostert will return to his home-state after spending just over five seasons on the opposite coast in San Francisco. After a 2019 season in which Mostert led the 49ers in rushing yards without starting a single game, he was tabbed as the starter the following two seasons but only played in nine games with both of those years getting cut short due to injury. Chase Edmonds will have a chance to compete for the starting job in Miami after serving as the No. 2 running back behind the likes of Kenyan Drake and James Conner during his time in Arizona. Finally, Sony Michel will head back to the AFC East after a one-year hiatus in Los Angeles. Michel’s lone year with the Rams saw him return to form after an injury-plagued season in New England.

Michel has seen the most consistent success of the three, but Mostert has shown an ability to do more with less, touting a career 5.7 yards per carry, and Edmonds has shown effectiveness rushing and receiving out of the backfield for the Cardinals. It’s anybody’s guess who could end up starting for Miami at running back, but, with three solid options, Gaskin or Ahmed may find themselves in the dog house.

Both have served the Dolphins well in their short tenures, but Gaskin has had the clear preference over Ahmed in the past two seasons, being chosen to start over Ahmed and receiving 315 carries to Ahmed’s 129. Not to mention the fact that Gaskin offers much more to the passing game than Ahmed has so far in his career. Compared to Ahmed’s 23 career receptions for 178 yards, Gaskin has 97 catches for 673 yards and 6 touchdowns.

Miami has given Ahmed an opportunity not often afforded to young, undrafted players, but, sadly, everything above could be pointing to the end of his time with the Dolphins. I expect Ahmed to hang around through the preseason, given the injury history Miami has experienced at the position over recent years, but it’s hard to picture a scenario where the Dolphins hang on to five running backs or one where Ahmed is able to beat out one of the above four.

5 Key Stories: 7/3/22 – 7/10/22

July 10th, 2022 at 5:05pm CST by Adam La Rose

Here’s a quick recap of some of the top headlines from around the NFL this past week:

  • Browns Send Mayfield To Panthers: It took longer than all parties involved expected it to, but the Browns traded Baker Mayfield to the Panthers on Wednesday. The Browns received a conditional fifth-round pick in return, showing how much of a depreciated asset the former No. 1 overall pick had become this offseason. Mayfield reduced his salary by $3.5MM to facilitate the deal, while the Browns will absorb $10.5MM of his fifth-year option cost of $18.9MM. The swap marks the second consecutive offseason involving a top-three QB from the 2018 class for the Panthers, as they acquired Sam Darnold last year. The team plans on keeping both signal-callers in 2022.
  • Raiders Hire New President: Continuing a decades-long line of historic personnel hires, the Raiders made Sandra Douglass Morgan the new team president. The former Nevada Gaming Control Board chairwoman becomes the first Black woman to hold that title in the NFL. The move comes amidst another round of workplace misconduct allegations against the franchise, which Morgan has already acknowledged. “I am not here to avoid or sidestep problems or concerns that need to be addressed,” she said in a letter to team employees. She replaces Dan Ventrelle as president, after the veteran exec claimed he was fired in May as a result of his decision to alert owner Mark Davis to the presence of a hostile workplace environment.
  • Miller Nearly Chose Cowboys, Rams Over Bills: Von Miller gave the Bills a significant boost to their pass rush when he signed in Buffalo on a six-year, $120MM deal. Before doing so, he had an offer on the table from the Cowboys equal to the one Randy Gregory backed out of (five years, $70MM). Looking back, the future Hall of Famer said “I would have taken less to go to Dallas because it’s Dallas. But I wouldn’t take that much less.” At one point, he was also “90%” sure of staying in Los Angeles, after his Super-Bowl winning run with the Rams. Instead, he will try to earn a third ring with a third different franchise.
  • Steelers Not Prepared To Top $20MM For Johnson? One of the top storylines this offseason has been the skyrocketing WR market, and the deals 2019 draftees have signed to continue driving up the cost of young stars at the position. In the case of Diontae Johnson, the Steelers aren’t expected to offer an extension valued at $20MM per season – the benchmark several receivers, including non-Pro Bowlers, have reached or eclipsed in recent months. If the team has reached a price point it is unwilling to extend beyond, the sense that 2022 could be the 26-year-old’s final campaign in Pittsburgh will only grow.
  • Murphy To Step Aside In 2025:  The Packers will have a new president in three years’ time. Mark Murphy confirmed that, as required by the clubs by-laws, he will be retiring in 2025, ending a tenure of sustained success for the franchise. Included in that stretch is the team’s fourth Super Bowl title, adding to Murphy’s personal collection of rings dating back to his playing career. “It has been an honor and a privilege to serve as the Packers president,” he wrote to fans. “I plan on making the last three years as successful as possible, with multiple Super Bowl championships!”

Trade Candidate: Ravens S Chuck Clark

July 9th, 2022 at 10:59pm CST by Adam La Rose

Chuck Clark was an unheralded addition to the Ravens when he was drafted in 2016, spending the early part of his NFL career primarily on special teams. His play since becoming a starter, however, has demonstrated his value to the Ravens and the rest of the league. 

A sixth-round pick out of Virginia Tech, Clark took over a starting safety spot midway through the 2019 season when Tony Jefferson was injured. He has been an every-down player ever since, teaming with Eric Weddle, then DeShon Elliott, at the backend of the team’s secondary. He has emerged as not only a statistical contributor, but also a valued leader during recent years.

In two full seasons as a starter, Clark hasn’t put up the kind of production a number of high-profile safeties have, but he has nevertheless been a steady presence. He has totalled 176 tackles, three interceptions and 16 pass deflections since 2021, while occupying an important role outside of statistical production. As the player wearing the green dot for communication, Clark has operated as, in essence, the ‘defensive QB’ since he assumed a starting role.

Expectations were raised for his effectiveness in 2022 and beyond when the Ravens signed Marcus Williams in free agency. As a more natural ‘centerfielder’ type of free safety, Williams represented an Elliott replacement who would allow Clark to operate closer to the line of scrimmage, which his athletic profile is better suited to. It wasn’t until the team drafted Kyle Hamilton in the first round of the draft that Clark emerged on the trade radar.

The Notre Dame alum has a largely congruent skillset to Clark’s, which led to multiple teams making trade inquiries after the draft regarding Clark’s availability. Using Hamilton on an every-down basis could cut significantly into Clark’s playing time, and complicate his ability to continue serving as the defensive signal-caller. The team has regularly used three-safety packages in recent years, though, providing a backdrop for the pushback to trade speculation the team provided.

Head coach John Harbaugh commented on the situation in May, saying “I love the fact that we have very versatile players in the backend and at safety. So, to me, Chuck is a big part of this team, and I’m planning on Chuck being here.” 

Things took another turn one month later, when Clark hired a new agent. It was reported at that time that, throughout OTAs and minicamp, he had made no public indication of requesting a trade. The Ravens have pulled off unexpected moves before, though, including the Marquise Brown trade this year. A swap sending Clark to a team which could play him as an undisputed starter has remained a possibility throughout the offseason, in part due to Baltimore’s financial situation.

The Ravens currently rank 31st in the league in cap space, so the relatively small savings a Clark trade would generate ($2.75MM) could nevertheless be significant. He has two years remaining on his contract, with affordable cap charges of $4.6MM and $5.2MM, along with even lower salaries. That could widen the pool of teams still interested in adding him.

Clark could be a useful fit in almost any system, given his ‘jack-of-all-trade’ profile. Teams currently set to start inexperienced safeties include the 49ers, who lost Jaquiski Tartt in free agency, and the Colts, who saw Khari Willis retire recently. If either squad wanted to add a quality veteran to insulate Talanoa Hufanga or Nick Cross, respectively, Clark could be the best available option. Especially after the 49ers part with Jimmy Garoppolo, both teams will easily be able to afford him.

Of course, the possibility still remains that the Ravens could hold onto Clark for at least the 2022 campaign, as Hamilton acclimates to the NFL. It wouldn’t come as a complete surprise, though, if he were to suit up for a new team by the start of the regular season.

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