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Offseason In Review: Green Bay Packers

August 19th, 2022 at 10:42pm CST by Sam Robinson

Back to becoming a consistent Super Bowl threat in recent years, the Packers have remained unable to overcome perpetual postseason stumbling blocks. The team’s back-to-back No. 1 seeds from 2020-21 were a first in franchise history — with record-based home-field advantage only being introduced in the mid-1970s — but neither led to a Super Bowl berth. The Packers managed a third straight 13-win season but endured a divisional-round upset. Much has changed since, inviting big-picture questions.

Aaron Rodgers agreeing to stay in Green Bay marked the franchise’s most important offseason development, but the top weapon from his 13 years commanding the Packers’ offense leaving has brought scrutiny. The 38-year-old quarterback, who does not sound like he aims to follow in Tom Brady‘s footsteps by playing into his mid-40s, is now without his top two receivers from 2021. This late into the all-time great quarterback’s career, is this a Packers formula that will work?

Trades:

Adams contract issues came to a head this offseason. While the Packers momentarily kept the door open for a ninth Rodgers-Adams season by tagging the All-Pro wide receiver, their first tag usage in 12 years, GM Brian Gutekunst slammed it shut by agreeing to a trade that brought sweeping changes to the Packers’ passing attack and the receiver market. Previous Packers GM Ted Thompson did well to identify Adams’ potential by signing him to a $14MM-per-year accord in December 2017. That deal came months before Sammy Watkins‘ Chiefs contract brought a market correction. The receiver landscape stabilized for a bit in the years that followed, increasing incrementally, but Adams’ contract became quite Packers-friendly as it wound down. His $28MM-per-year Raiders pact triggered an avalanche.

The Packers discussed a deal with Adams before the 2021 season, but the sides broke off talks. Failing to re-sign Adams before last season can be used against Gutekunst, but the wide receiver expressing hesitancy regarding another Green Bay contract for two quarterback-related reasons threw a wrench into the team’s relationship with its top Rodgers-era playmaker. Shortly after Rodgers’ April 2021 trade request, Adams said it factored into his own negotiations. This offseason, Adams said Rodgers’ future still mattered as he determined his own. Adams’ long-running interest in reuniting with Derek Carr (and vice versa) overshadowed all of this.

Green Bay out-offering Las Vegas for Adams and still seeing its star receiver opt for the Raiders represented an odd conclusion to this process — one that could impede the team’s latest run at a Super Bowl. Adams, 29, arrived in Vegas on the heels of five straight Pro Bowl invites, and he earned back-to-back first-team All-Pro nods for outings that obviously aided Rodgers’ two MVP honors.

Rodgers did plenty to boost Adams as well and has fared well without him in recent years. But the four-time MVP being stripped of this type of talent at this stage of his career will be a test. Adams missed time due to injuries over the course of his second contract, but the last time the Packers were without a No. 1-caliber Rodgers target for a full season was 2015. A March Adams trade and an August Jordy Nelson ACL tear are different matters, but Rodgers experienced a statistical dip that year — in the form of considerable drops in completion percentage, yards per attempt and QBR.

The Packers have had several months to adjust to Adams’ departure — one Rodgers knew was likely when he recommitted — and did package one of the trade assets to add a receiver piece (No. 34 overall pick Christian Watson). But this will be an interesting challenge and the kind of adjustment the Packer legend’s NFC QB rivals do not have to navigate this year.

Free agency additions:

Not typically big spenders on the market, the Packers continued that trend with a quiet spring regarding outside hires. Although O’Donnell leaving his Bears punting post of eight years for the Packers is interesting, Watkins and Reed’s Wisconsin pledges were the biggest news on this offseason front.

LaFleur worked as the Rams’ offensive coordinator during Watkins’ Los Angeles year (2017); Watkins played a career-high 15 games that season and helped the Rams snap a 13-year playoff drought. The former top-five Bills pick made some nice contributions, particularly in the 2019 postseason, during the Chiefs’ voyages to consecutive Super Bowls. But the one-time top prospect has not panned out as a pro. Watkins’ value drop from $16MM per year (Kansas City, 2018) to $5MM (Baltimore, 2021) to this reflects a player nearing his last chance. Watkins, 29, could potentially help the Packers as an auxiliary option. Asking the injury-prone target, who has topped 600 yards once in the past six seasons, to be a consistent contributor appears a bridge too far.

Even after adding Watkins, the Packers made runs at a few other veteran wideouts this offseason. They pursued Marquise Brown and Julio Jones and were linked to Deebo Samuel and DeVante Parker. It does not appear Samuel, who was most closely connected to the Jets, was a serious trade target. The Patriots landed Parker for a third-round pick, while it took a first (with a third coming back) for the Cardinals to nab Brown. It is understandable why the Packers stood down here, but the receiver links do point to the franchise remaining interested in veteran options. Until the Rams follow through on their incessant Odell Beckham Jr. reunion interest, the rehabbing star figures to stay on the Packers’ radar.

Reed refusing a 2021 Seahawks restructure, instead pushing for an extension, has sent him on a journeyman path. The Seahawks gave the defensive tackle a two-year, $23MM deal in 2020 but cut bait a year later. Reed signed a one-year, $5.5MM Chiefs pact in 2021 and could not command that this year. Still, the recent Chris Jones sidekick should help the Packers as a complementary inside pass rusher. Reed, 29, registered 10.5 sacks in 2018 and totaled 8.5 (counting two playoff sacks) two years later. He has not missed a game since his 2019 PED suspension and forced two fumbles last season. This could be a nice value signing for the Packers.

Re-signings:

As is frequently the case for the Packers, they did shell out some dough to retain their own UFAs. Both Campbell and Douglas boosted their stock by helping a depleted Packers team to the NFC’s No. 1 seed, and the team paid each nice money on the market. This was an easy place to look at where the Adams cash went.

Campbell offered one of the more interesting breakthrough seasons in recent memory last year. The former Falcons fourth-round find morphed from a player Atlanta did not retain in 2020 to one Arizona also let walk after a modest contract (one year, $6MM) expired. The Packers nabbed Campbell in May 2021, on a one-year deal worth $2MM, and saw him become their first off-ball linebacker All-Pro in nearly 50 years. Campbell’s 146-tackle, two-forced fumble, two-INT, two-sack season graded behind only Micah Parsons among linebackers in 2021, per Pro Football Focus.

This does represent a significant deviation for the Packers, who had largely avoided off-ball linebacker investments post-A.J. Hawk. The Pack both signing Campbell and drafting Quay Walker swerves from that route. Campbell is only guaranteed his signing bonus, though roster bonuses of $3MM (2023) and $2.9MM (’24) are due on Day 3 of those league years. Still, this equates to an upper-middle-class linebacker deal.

Compared to his pre-Green Bay career trek (five teams from September 2020 to October 2021), Douglas securing a $7MM-per-year accord is a big win for the nomadic cornerback. Teams were still skeptical of Douglas’ breakout 2021, however, judging by his low guarantee figure. If Douglas’ 2021 (five INTs, two pick-sixes, an eye-catching 44.5 passer rating allowed as the closest defender) proves a mirage, the Packers can escape the contract in 2023. The team obviously hopes he can be a long-term contributor alongside first-rounders Jaire Alexander and Eric Stokes. Douglas, 28, is expected to patrol the slot for Green Bay, which let Chandon Sullivan sign with Minnesota.

Tonyan’s midseason ACL tear cost him dearly. Instead of the 2020 breakout performer capitalizing on two solid years as a Rodgers weapon, he had to settle for a low-end contract. Although Tonyan has just four years’ experience, he is already 28. With Week 1 availability uncertain, the stakes will be high for the ex-UDFA to deliver this season. His window to cash in is closing.

But the Packers have uncertain receiver situation. Tonyan’s nice, perhaps unsustainable, 11-touchdown 2020 season (a 52-catch, 586-yard campaign) still points to him being the Packers’ top tight end when healthy. That status still should point the Indiana State alum’s arrow upward, but Tonyan will need to prove himself again. Not doing so will call the team’s tight end plan into question.

Notable losses:

Days after the Adams tag-and-trade transaction, Valdes-Scantling defected to the Chiefs. Prior to the AFC West gutting the Packers’ receiving corps, the NFC North champs tried to retain the deep threat. MVS ran into a slightly better market than he anticipated, expecting to sign a one-year deal in the $7-$10MM AAV range. The Chiefs guaranteed the four-year Packer contributor just $8.6MM, indicating Green Bay did not make a substantial offer to keep the former fifth-round pick.

The Valdes-Scantling departure gave the Packers a unique offseason task, given their status as a top-shelf contender and employment of a quarterback legend approaching 39. The team is losing a wideout who dealt with sporadic drop issues but one who led the league in yards per catch (20.9) in 2020. Valdes-Scantling’s defection plunged the Packers into one of the more unusual receiver situations in recent NFL history. The two playmakers’ exits remove nearly 2,000 2021 receiving yards from Green Bay’s equation. This will move a lot onto the shoulders of Allen Lazard(career-high 513 receiving yards, eight TDs in 2021), with the team also likely to rely more on Aaron Jones‘ receiving abilities.

Considering the Packers’ Thompson-era strategy in free agency — largely avoiding it, save for some notable SFAs — Gutekunst’s 2019 Smith contract (four years, $66MM) raised eyebrows. The ex-Ravens contributor was coming off a promising 2018 season, but the Packers unlocked his potential. Smith soared to back-to-back Pro Bowls as a Packer and anchored the edge rush for two straight NFC championship game-bound teams, combining for 26 sacks from 2019-20. Smith’s 2021 back injury contributed to his Green Bay exit, but the team’s offseason contract restructure — which inflated the edge defender’s 2022 cap figure to $28.1MM — pointed him out the door anyway.

Smith’s early-season back surgery did preview the Packers’ current OLB configuration. Rashan Gary is now in place as Green Bay’s top edge player, with ex-Za’Darius sidekick Preston Smith set to flank him. It will be interesting to see if Za’Darius Smith can regain his previous form; the Vikings threw out a midlevel bet on him doing so. The Packers will surely see a motivated defender come Week 1. Ditto Sullivan, whom the Packers did not keep despite the Vikings needing only needing to pay $1.75MM to move him out of Green Bay. The team’s primary slot defender to start the 2020s, Sullivan surpassed the 70% snap barrier in each of the past two seasons.

The coaches that left Wisconsin this offseason took some Packers role players with them. Nathaniel Hackett is eyeing Turner as his starting right tackle in Denver. One of several Packers O-linemen to miss time due to injuries last season, Turner saw time at guard and both tackle spots in three Green Bay seasons. His exit strips the Packers of more experience.

David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins returning healthy would minimize the exits of Turner and Kelly, but we are a ways away from knowing the Packers O-line cogs’ respective 2022 availability. New Bears OC Luke Getsy pried Patrick, St. Brown and Moore. Primarily a guard, Patrick started 28 games for the Packers from 2020-21. If Jenkins and Bakhtiari are not back in Week 1, Green Bay will not feature much experience up front.

Extensions and restructures:

The Packers were busy on the extension front this offseason; their biggest deal produced multi-city fallout. The Broncos were linked to Rodgers for nearly a year, being the primary suitor in the event the once-disgruntled Packer ultimately wanted out. Not long after Rodgers’ Packers recommitment, the Broncos went with Plan B — a Russell Wilson trade that had not produced rumors nearly on the level the Rodgers-to-Denver scenario had. Although this process lingered up until the franchise tag deadline, seeming to coincide with Adams’ status, the Packers kept their cornerstone player. Just as he did with his 2013 ($22MM per year) and 2018 ($33.5MM AAV) extensions, Rodgers tops the quarterback market. Illustrating this positional market’s rapid growth, this re-up makes him the first $50MM-per-year NFLer.

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Offseason In Review: New York Jets

August 18th, 2022 at 9:33pm CST by Ben Levine

The New York Jets have always been intent on winning the back page, which often includes lavish (and later regrettable) spending. While the Jets still spent a bit this offseason, the organization’s new-ish regime (led by fourth-year GM Joe Douglas and second-year head coach Robert Saleh) seems to be operating under a more disciplined, focused approach, with a particular emphasis on building from within. To that, the Jets did an admirable job filling a handful of holes through the draft, especially via three first-round picks and one early second-round pick.

The Jets deserve props for adding both foundational and short-term pieces that addressed some clear needs. While they don’t have much room to fall following a four-win campaign in 2021, it remains to be seen if these offseason moves will be enough to get the Jets to a respectable record…and (perhaps) their first playoff appearance since the 2010 season.

Notable signings:

The Jets offensive line actually showed plenty of improvement during the 2021 season, but other than former first-round pick Alijah Vera-Tucker, questions remain. George Fant and Connor McGovern are both getting up there in age and only have a year remaining on their contracts. Morgan Moses left in free agency, while the embattled Mekhi Becton first lost out on the LT competition before being ruled out for the season.

To help shore up the unit in both the short- and long-term, the Jets brought in Laken Tomlinson. A former first-round pick by the Lions, Tomlinson found a home in San Francisco between the 2017 and 2021 seasons, including a 2021 campaign where he earned his first career Pro Bowl selection. He ended up ranking 13th among 82 eligible guard candidates via Pro Football Focus, and based on his track record, there’s no reason to think he’ll fall out of the top-15 guards in 2022.

Following Becton’s season-ending knee injury, the Jets brought in Duane Brown to start at left tackle. While Fant initially claimed the LT gig, it sounds like he’ll switch back to RT to welcome in his experienced teammate. As a Pro Bowl alternate last season, Brown demonstrated that he can still operate at a high level despite his age, and the Jets will clearly be counting on him to remain an effective blindside blocker for at least the 2022 campaign.

The Jets got a combined 50 catches for 534 yards and three touchdowns from their tight ends last season. While they didn’t necessarily fill the holes with sexy names, they added a pair of dependable TEs who they can immediately pop into the lineup. C.J. Uzomah had a career year with the Bengals in 2021, hauling in 49 catches for 493 yards and five touchdowns before adding another 15 receptions for 146 yards and one score in the playoffs. Tyler Conklin had a breakout season with the Vikings, finishing with 61 receptions for 593 yards and three scores. Conklin profiles as mostly a receiving TE, but Uzomah has the blocking prowess to play in any scenario.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Jets focused on adding depth to their secondary. Bryce Hall and Brandin Echols started a combined 31 games at cornerback last season, but the duo will likely be demoted following the additions of rookie Sauce Gardner (who we’ll get to later) and free agent acquisition D.J. Reed. A former backup in San Francisco, Reed started 22 games for the Seahawks over the past two seasons, including a 2021 campaign where he finished with a career-high 78 tackles and 10 passes defended. Pro Football Focus was particularly fond of his performance, ranking him eighth among 166 qualifying cornerbacks last year. Reed should immediately slide into the starting lineup along with Gardner and nickelback Michael Carter II.

Elsewhere on their secondary, the Jets signed Jordan Whitehead to add some depth at safety. The former fourth-round pick started 55 of his 59 games for the Buccaneers between 2018 and 2021, and he helps add a championship pedigree to a squad striving for a simple postseason appearance. Whitehead was firmly in the top-third of PFF’s ranking of the league’s safeties, and his run-defending ability should come in handy alongside a questionable front seven. The same sentiment applies to Marcell Harris, a former safety who mostly played linebacker with the 49ers last season.

While the Jets front office did an admirable job of filling their needs this offseason, there are still some question marks surrounding their front seven, especially their linebackers corps. The recent signing of Kwon Alexander will certainly help, although his consistent injury issues will probably limit him to a backup role. Jacob Martin was also brought in as some depth at LB, but he profiles as more of a DE in Robert Saleh’s 4-3 defense. Solomon Thomas will provide some depth behind defensive tackles Quinnen Williams and John Franklin-Myers.

The Jets relied on Matt Ammendola and Eddy Pineiro at kicker last season, with the duo connecting on only 77.8 percent of their field goal attempts, the seventh-worst mark in the NFL. The Jets brought in veteran Greg Zuerlein to hopefully provide some consistency at the position. Greg The Leg connected on 82.9 percent of his field goal attempts in each of the past two seasons, although he finished the 2021 campaign having connected on a career-worst 87.5 percent of his XP tries.

Notable losses:

The Jets lost a handful of contributors during the offseason, but the majority of those exits have been accounted for. Marcus Maye was a consistent starter during his tenure in New York, but he was limited to only six games in 2021 thanks to a torn Achilles. The Jets ended up pivoting to Jordan Whitehead, who earned about half of what Maye got from the Saints. Plus, Lamarcus Joyner is back after appearing in only one game last season.

Elsewhere on defense, Folorunso Fatukasi is gone after starting a career-high 15 games last season. He ended up grading out as a middle-of-the-road interior defender on PFF, and with Quinnen Williams, John Franklin-Myers, and Solomon Thomas around, Fatukasi was made expendable. Jarrad Davis started five of his nine games for the Jets last season, finishing with 25 tackles. Considering the team’s lack of LB depth, it’s probably pretty telling that the front office was willing to let him walk.

The Jets also lost some starting-caliber players along their offensive line. Morgan Moses started 16 of his 17 games last season, while Greg Van Roten started 23 of his 30 appearances over the past two years. The signing of Laken Tomlinson helps make those losses more palatable, and while either of Moses or Van Roten would have provided some much-needed depth, they were unlikely to crack the starting lineup.

Tyler Kroft and Ryan Griffin started a combined 18 games last season, but the duo finished with only 43 total receptions. The Jets replacements at the position (C.J. Uzomah, Tyler Conklin) won’t set the world on fire, but they’re definitely an upgrade over what the team was relying on in 2021. The same could probably be said at wide receiver, although Jamison Crowder was one of the team’s most consistent offensive weapons over the past three years (63 catches per season). Keelan Cole also showed flashes in 2021, averaging 16 yards on his 28 receptions. Fortunately, the team still has plenty of depth at the position, with Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, Garrett Wilson, Denzel Mims, and Braxton Berrios providing some intrigue.

Re-signed:

The Jets made sure to retain some depth pieces on both sides of the ball. Lamarcus Joyner and Vinny Curry were both brought in by the Jets last offseason, but the two acquisitions combined for only one game. Joyner bounced in and out of the Raiders starting lineup during the 2019 and 2020 seasons, and he was mostly graded as a below-average safety during those two years. The Jets didn’t give up a whole lot to bring him back, and while he’s projected to start at safety, he could see some pressure from Ashtyn Davis and Jason Pinnock. Curry was sidelined for the entire 2021 campaign after being diagnosed with a rare blood disorder that required the removal of his spleen. He re-signed with the Jets this offseason, a positive indication that he’s doing better, but he’ll still have an uphill battle to make the 53-man roster.

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Extension Candidate: Denzel Perryman

August 17th, 2022 at 10:43pm CST by Ely Allen

The Raiders have dedicated big contracts to a number of their star players over the past few years extending players like quarterback Derek Carr, defensive end Maxx Crosby, tackle Kolton Miller, wide receiver Hunter Renfrow, and tight end Darren Waller while signing free agents like wide receiver Davante Adams and defensive end Chandler Jones to large salaries, as well. Luckily for them, the next potential player up for a new deal plays at one of the league’s cheaper positions. 

Physically, Denzel Perryman is a near replica of fellow Miami Hurricane alumnus Ray Lewis. Both are undersized for the linebacker position, sitting at around 6-foot tall and 240 pounds. Perryman’s playing style is that of the prototypical, old-school linebacker. He’s a thumper that is always around the ball-carrier but can struggle in some coverage situations. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) ranked him 16th among linebackers in run defense last year and 2nd in pass rush, but his lackluster coverage grades (41st) slot him as the 26th-ranked linebacker overall.

Perryman was a second-round pick for the Chargers back in 2015. He was expected to contribute right away, despite being limited throughout camp with a hamstring injury, but quickly pushed his way into the starting lineup by Week 6 of his rookie season when starter Manti Te’o suffered an injury. Perryman started alongside Donald Butler for two weeks before sustaining an injury himself. When Te’o and Perryman both returned from injury at the same time, then-San Diego defensive coordinator John Pagano named them both starters, demoting Butler to a backup role. He started the rest of the season for the Chargers and never really let go of that starting role.

After playing out his rookie contract, the Chargers extended Perryman on a two-year, $12MM deal. During the last year of his new contract, the Chargers decided to inject some youth into the linebacking corps, drafting Kenneth Murray in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. When Perryman’s contract expired, Los Angeles decided to let him walk in free agency. Perryman’s limited usage in his final two years with the Chargers hurt his value a bit and he signed a two-year, $6MM deal with the Panthers. A little more than two weeks before the season started, though, Carolina traded Perryman to the Raiders for the 2021 season.

2021 saw a complete resurgence for the ailing linebacker. While many assumed his best days were behind him and that he was doomed to serve as a depth piece or lower-tier starter for the remainder of his career, Perryman took in his new surroundings and opportunities and made out of them the best season of his seven-year career. Last year, Perryman finished the season at sixth in the league with 154 tackles, more than doubling his previous season-high of 73 set in his rookie season. After being packaged with a seventh-round pick to be exchanged for a sixth-round pick in the Carolina-Las Vegas deal, Perryman made the first Pro Bowl of his career.

After the Pro Bowl year, Perryman now appears to be a bit underpaid as he’s set to earn just over $3MM this year. The inside linebacker position tends to run cheaper than others on the defense. The top paid players at the position (Colts linebacker Shaquille Leonard, $19.7MM annual average value, and Jets linebacker C.J. Mosley, $17MM AAV) have impressive annual salaries. Behind them, though, the top players in the game average anywhere from $8MM per year (Steelers linebacker Myles Jack) to $14.5MM per year (Titans linebacker Zach Cunningham). In terms of talent and ability, Perryman absolutely falls within this range, but there are a few other aspects to a new deal that may affect the final number.

The first factor in a new contract is age. Perryman is 29-years-old this season and, while he seems to be playing the best football of his career, approaching the 30-year mark is often a harbinger of decline in play. There are plenty of exceptions to the rule at the position, though. Bobby Wagner just signed a five-year, $50MM deal to join the Rams at 31 years old. Perryman’s older doppelganger, Lewis, played well into his 30s, collecting first-team All-Pro and Pro Bowl accolades as late as 34 and 36 years old, respectively. So while his age may play a factor into the length of any new deal he receives, the fact that he is playing better than he ever has previously should help in making sure his age doesn’t diminish his value.

The second factor facing Perryman’s extension efforts is injury. Injuries have long plagued the veteran’s career. In his full seven years of play, Perryman has never once appeared in every game of the season. His healthiest season came last year when he started and played in 15 games. He missed two regular season games due to an ankle injury that, later, forced him to leave the Raiders’ playoff battle against the Bengals last year. Over the course of his career, Perryman has suffered an array of injuries ranging from his ankle to his shoulder including an LCL tear in his knee, hamstring sprains, and pectoral strains. The silver-lining here, similar to above, is that he displayed a durability last year unmatched by any previous season. If he is only getting healthier, then the amount he receives should not be adjusted too much. It should be expected, though, that his injury history may affect the guaranteed amount that receives.

An extension for Perryman likely keeps him under contract for another two or three years. If the team intends to reward Perryman for his Pro Bowl production last year, his AAV could get up to $10MM. It might be a bit more likely for his contract to end up around $8MM or $9MM per year. My guess is that, if the Raiders were to decide to extend him, it would be something like a three-year, $27MM deal with a guaranteed amount of $9MM.

The Raiders didn’t invest any draft picks this year in young linebackers and the linebackers they brought in through free agency, Jayon Brown, Kenny Young, and Micah Kiser, don’t seem to be any threat to steal Perryman’s playing time. It seems like an ideal time for both sides to come to an extended agreement, then. The Raiders can secure their leader at linebacker for the next few seasons and Perryman can cash in on his newly inflated value.

Offseason In Review: Minnesota Vikings

August 14th, 2022 at 10:15pm CST by Sam Robinson

After becoming a perennial contender early in Mike Zimmer‘s stay, the wheels fell off for the Vikings over the coach’s final two seasons. The crusty HC’s time had run out with the franchise, which opted to reboot — on the sidelines and front office, at least. The Vikings will make a change at right guard and should have Irv Smith Jr. back from injury, but despite hiring a new GM-HC combo, they will feature nearly the same offensive starting lineup from 2021. Last year’s unit ranked 16th in DVOA; how high can the Vikings’ fifth Kirk Cousins-led attack rise? The results have not been what the franchise sought with the veteran quarterback, but Kevin O’Connell — one of the veteran quarterback’s former position coaches — will be tasked with revitalizing the offense.

Of the teams that hired new HCs and GMs this year, the Vikings look to be in the best shape for 2022. In an NFC that does not appear as deep as the AFC — due partially to the 2021- and 2022-established rebuilds transpiring within the conference — Minnesota figures to be in the mix.

Free agency additions:

Minnesota’s defense, however, will look different. Several new starters will be on the field in Week 1. Smith, 30 in September, resides as the most notable of the newcomers, given his Packers production (when healthy). Smith backed out of a Ravens return, spurning his former team’s four-year, $35MM offer. Five days later, he was back in the NFC North. It is unlikely Smith’s Ravens offer contained much in the way of guarantees at signing, after he missed 16 games last season. The Vikings did include $11.5MM in total guarantees, protecting Smith — to some degree — after his injury-marred 2021.

But Minnesota having the two-time Green Bay Pro Bowler healthy opens up possibilities. The Vikings quietly ranked second in the NFL last season with 51 sacks. A depth effort produced that total. No single Viking eclipsed eight sacks, and only one (D.J. Wonnum) recorded more than six. This group intrigues, especially with Danielle Hunter (six sacks in seven games) due back from his latest injury. Smith being a prime Everson Griffen-type Hunter bookend would do a lot for this revamped defense.

The Packers bailed on Smith’s four-year, $66MM deal in March. His 2021 back injury and surgery-requiring setback concerns, but the former Ravens draftee did live up to his Packers contract in 2019 and ’20. He ranked fifth and eighth, respectively, in pressures and combined for 26 sacks in that span. Still, the Vikings’ Hunter-Smith edge tandem brings considerable variance due to the late-20s injury troubles each has encountered.

The Bills tried to retain Phillips, but as they added Tim Settle and were waiting on Von Miller‘s decision, the Vikings came in with a better offer. A former third-round pick, Phillips saw an early-season ACL tear interrupt his climb in 2019. By 2021, the Stanford product was back in form. Pro Football Focus graded Phillips as a top-15 interior D-lineman last season — a Bills-best mark for 2021. PFF slotted Phillips sixth in run defense among D-tackles, giving the Vikings a potentially formidable run-stopping duo with he and Dalvin Tomlinson. Neither has proven to be too productive as a pass rusher, however. The Vikings were connected to Ndamukong Suh earlier this summer, but nothing materialized. Two-stint Viking Sheldon Richardson also remains available. Does the team need to add an inside rusher?

In going from Anthony Barr to Hicks, the Vikings shifted from one 30-year-old defender to another alongside Eric Kendricks. While injury-prone in Philadelphia, Hicks’ Arizona work should prevent Minnesota from worrying about three of its four linebacker starters being health concerns. Hicks did not miss a game with the Cardinals and racked up tackle totals of 150, 118 and 116. Although Hicks’ tackle for loss number dropped from the 11 he tallied in both 2019 and ’20 to seven last season, PFF gave him a top-30 linebacker grade — his best as a Cardinal.

Production- and durability-wise, Hicks should be a capable Kendricks sidekick for at least 2022. Given the ages of the duo (Kendricks is also 30), the Vikings’ new regime will likely give the off-ball linebacker spot a longer look ahead of the 2023 draft. They already added a potential future piece in third-rounder Brian Asamoah, but Kendricks and Hicks look like the Vikes’ three-down ‘backers for 2022.

Minnesota also imported Sullivan from Green Bay. Although the slot cornerback’s price was a fraction of Smith’s, he played a steady role for back-to-back No. 1-seeded Packer teams. Sullivan, 26, logged 71% and 77% defensive snap rates over the past two years, respectively. He did allow a career-high four touchdowns last season, rating outside the top 90 at corner (per PFF). Davis looks set to replace Oli Udoh at right guard, having played the position (among others in a versatile career) with the Dolphins. Reed, who subbed in for six Colts starts last season and was a full-time Panthers starter in 2020, is pushing Garrett Bradbury at center.

Re-signings:

Peterson, Jim Brown and Barry Sanders are the only players with eight Pro Bowl nods by age 28. Looking to be sailing to the Hall of Fame, the former Cardinals dynamo saw a 2019 PED suspension inject a degree of uncertainty.

The 32-year-old cornerback has not been the same since that ban. This is not to say the former top-five pick’s early-career greatness was drug-assisted, but Peterson showed his age early. His age-29 season brought worse marks in both yards per target and passer rating as the closest defender, and he did not get back on track in 2020. This led to a modest 2021 market and a one-year, $10MM Vikings accord. While Peterson played better under Zimmer, his status makes the Vikings’ cornerback corps one of the team’s bigger questions.

Peterson’s 2021 bounce-back effort (top-60 PFF grade, improvements in both yards per target and completion percentage allowed) likely helped his case for Canton enshrinement. For 2022, however, the Vikings need one last strong season. Their cornerback puzzle does not look to fit without it. The Jeff Gladney selection turning ugly then tragic set the organization back, and 2020 third-rounder Cameron Dantzler has not been a steady answer, either. With Andrew Booth a rookie coming off an injury-limited offseason, Peterson — after returning at less than half his 2021 salary — will be counted on again.

Notable losses:

Zimmer mainstays Griffen, Barr and Alexander depart after 11, eight and five Vikings seasons, respectively. Barr and Griffen were full-timers on the Vikings’ 2015, ’17 and ’19 playoff teams. Alexander arrived in 2016. This trio’s exit leaves Kendricks, Hunter and Harrison Smith as the last men standing from that nucleus — one responsible for top-five scoring defenses from 2015-19 and helping Minnesota to three NFC brackets with three starting quarterbacks. Zimmer’s 2010s troops joined the Chris Doleman– and Keith Millard-fronted units of the late 1980s as the Vikings’ most impressive post-“Purple People Eaters” defensive cores, but that group’s run is winding down.

Barr accepted a pay cut in 2021, and after he missed 20 games over the past two seasons, the Vikings did not show much interest in a third contract for the former top-10 pick. It cost the Cowboys just $2MM to add him. A Pro Bowler from 2015-18, Barr made a successful transition from college edge to a 4-3 outside linebacker under Zimmer. The Jets were close to luring him away to play more of an edge role in 2019, but the Vikings paid up to keep him. That second Barr deal did not work out. The same can be said for Alexander’s return. After spending 2020 in Cincinnati, the former second-round pick was PFF’s worst-graded corner last season.

Although Griffen ran into another unusual off-field issue that led to a hiatus, which came three years after he previously needed to step away from the Vikings, he still recorded five sacks last season and was one of the most productive Vikings pass rushers in the team’s 61-year history. While Alan Page, Jim Marshall and Carl Eller‘s lofty totals are not included, due to being before the official sack era (1982-), Griffen’s 79.5 sacks rank fourth in Vikings annals.

Richardson played both the 2018 and 2021 seasons in Minnesota, with a Cleveland stay sandwiched in between. He did not miss a start in either Vikings season. The Vikes’ new regime has not been connected to another reunion. Richardson, 31, has been linked to another Browns stint.

Between Barr and Pierce, the Vikings are carrying $13MM in dead-money charges. Pierce bombed on a three-year, $27MM Vikes agreement, opting out of the 2020 season and missing half of last season due to injury. Pierce’s injury allowed likely 2022 D-line starter Armon Watts nine starts. Despite the presences of Tomlinson and Phillips, Watts (five 2022 sacks, 10 QB hits) figures to have a steady role this season. A 2019 sixth-round pick, Watts should have responsibilities more in line with his talents this season — after the college pass rusher was asked to try his hand at nose sans Pierce.

In Irv Smith Jr.‘s absence, Conklin stepped in as an out-of-nowhere contributor. The former fifth-round pick’s well-timed breakout year (593 receiving yards) secured him a two-year, $20.25MM ($10MM guaranteed) Jets deal. The Vikings did not do much to replace Conklin, pointing to the team counting on Smith to return from his 2021 season-nullifying knee injury. Smith also underwent thumb surgery during this year’s camp. The Vikes remain well-stocked at wide receiver, pushing their tight end to a lower-level target in O’Connell’s offense. But the team’s thin tight end situation needs Smith back at work.

Draft:

Rookie GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah did not exactly buck norms by trading with a division rival early in the draft, but dealing with separate NFC North teams on first- and second-round swaps did stand out. The Vikings moved way down the board in Round 1, allowing the Lions to climb up 20 spots for Jameson Williams at No. 12. The Saints climbing up from No. 27 to No. 14 in 2018 (for Marcus Davenport) scored the Packers a future first, and the Giants added a 2022 first by sliding down from No. 11 to No. 20 (giving the Bears Justin Fields) last year. Some value questions regarding the Vikings’ haul emerged, but Adofo-Mensah did pick up second- and third-round choices in this trade.

The Vikes’ Day 2 capital expanded further when Adofo-Mensah moved back again, giving the Packers a path to Christian Watson at No. 34. The Vikings’ three trades in the first two rounds, the third a move up for Booth, ended up providing secondary reinforcements and a potential right guard starter.

The last of five Georgia defenders chosen in Round 1, Cine will be ticketed to replace Smith as the team’s safety cornerstone. For now, the two will work together. Once a stronghold for first-round cornerbacks, having taken four from 2013-20, the Vikings do not roster a homegrown first-rounder at that position anymore. They now have two first-round safeties. Although Cine may not open the season as the team’s starter, with second-year man Camryn Bynum in place as a stopgap, it would surprise if he was not in the lineup by season’s end. Cine established new career-high marks in tackles (73) and passes defensed (nine) as a junior to both help Georgia to a title. He also blazed to a 4.37-second 40-yard dash time at the Combine.

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Release Candidate: Chiefs RB Ronald Jones

August 11th, 2022 at 9:23pm CST by Ben Levine

Ronald Jones joined the Chiefs this offseason, but he may not even make it to the regular season with his new squad. As Jonathan Jones of CBS Sports writes, the veteran RB “may find himself on the outside looking in” once the Chiefs reduce their roster to 53 players.

When Jones first joined the Chiefs, he was considered a potential starter or (at the very least) a high-level backup for Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Reports out of Kansas City don’t seem to indicate that Jones has necessarily done anything to lose his job. Rather, it’s been the performance of Kansas City’s other RBs that has put Jones’ gig in jeopardy.

While Edwards-Helaire has consistently been the No. 1 running back during training camp, the Chiefs have given extended looks at Jones, veteran Jerick McKinnon, and seventh-round rookie Isaih Pacheco as the No. 2 RB. As Jones writes, Pacheco has “already turned heads,” while McKinnon has the luxury of having already spent a year in Kansas City’s system. The Chiefs could realistically keep all four of those aforementioned running backs, but considering Jones’ lack of versatility, the organization may prefer to keep a less experienced option (like Derrick Gore or UDFA Tayon Fleet-Davis) instead of a veteran who probably won’t leave the bench.

Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy was recently complimentary of Jones’ energy, but he seemed to hint that the player’s lack of pass-catching and/or blocking prowess is still a work in progress.

“RoJo is doing a heck of a job,” Bieniemy said (h/t to Charles Goldman of ChiefsWire). “He’s obviously a big man, he’s done some good things running the football.

“He just needs to continue becoming the football player we expect him to be because we expect our guys to do a lot from that running back position. The thing that he’s done is he’s accepted the challenge and he’s doing things he really hasn’t done in the past.”

Jones found himself in and out of the lineup during his four years in Tampa Bay. He had his best season in 2020, finishing with 978 rushing yards and seven touchdowns before collecting another 139 rushing yards in the postseason. He spent the majority of the 2021 campaign behind Leonard Fournette on the depth chart, and after topping 1,000 yards from scrimmage in both 2019 and 2020, he finished last year with only 492 total yards.

The 25-year-old has averaged a respectable 4.5 yards per carry throughout his career, but he’s never been able to establish a role in the passing game. In four season, Jones has hauled in 76 receptions. For comparison’s sake, McKinnon has twice as many career receptions despite playing only two more seasons than his teammate. It goes beyond the counting stats; while Jones didn’t have enough snaps to qualify for Pro Football Focus’ grades, he would have ranked in the bottom-fourth among RBs in pass-catching ability. Jones also earned ugly grades in his blocking prowess, including a pass-blocking score that would have ranked as the second-worst among all RBs.

The Chiefs inked Jones to a one-year, $1.5MM contract this past offseason. The team could recoup about half of that cap hit by releasing the veteran. That $750K savings isn’t significant enough to make a major impact on the cap sheet, and that’s why if the Chiefs do ultimately move on from Jones, the move probably won’t be attributed to money.

Of course, this isn’t to say that Jones doesn’t have a place in the NFL. However, he doesn’t seem to have a clear role in Kansas City, and that fact could ultimately earn him his walking papers by the end of the preseason.

This Date In Transactions History: Bills Trade Sammy Watkins, Ronald Darby

August 11th, 2022 at 11:53am CST by Sam Robinson

A few transactions keyed the Bills’ rise from perennial regular-season-only team to one that has been on the Super Bowl contender tier in the 2020s, but August 11, 2017 represents a fairly important date on the franchise’s timeline.

On this day five years ago, the Bills swung two trades. Those deals, one in particular, helped the franchise transform its position in the NFL hierarchy. Shortly before noon CT that day, the Rams acquired Sammy Watkins and a 2018 sixth-round pick in exchange for a 2018 second-round pick and cornerback E.J. Gaines. Minutes later, word emerged that the Eagles had obtained Ronald Darby for a third-round pick and wide receiver Jordan Matthews.

Both Watkins and Darby were Bills starters brought in during Doug Whaley‘s run as general manager, the former as a 2014 first-round pick and the latter via the 2015 second round. The Bills traded up to No. 4 for Watkins in 2014, but the injury concerns that have largely defined the talented pass catcher’s career showed up early. The team got out early on Darby, who had two years remaining on his rookie contract at the time of the trade.

Both have since bounced around the league, though each has made key contributions post-Buffalo. Watkins elevated his value on Sean McVay‘s first Rams team, playing a career-high 15 games in 2017. This led to his signing a then-startling $16MM-per-year Chiefs deal in 2018 and helping Kansas City to back-to-back Super Bowls. Darby started for the Eagles’ Super Bowl LII-winning team in his first Philadelphia season. He has since signed deals with Washington and Denver. The Bills, however, used the trades to position themselves for a quick ascent under Sean McDermott and GM Brandon Beane.

Armed with the two additional Day 2 picks, Beane maneuvered to land the team’s next franchise centerpiece in his first draft as GM. In a rare two-pronged move up the first-round board, the Bills began their April 2018 odyssey by acquiring the No. 12 overall pick. To do so, they packaged veteran left tackle Cordy Glenn in a pre-draft deal with the Bengals. That move featured Glenn, Buffalo’s No. 21 pick and a 2018 fifth-round choice going to Cincinnati for No. 12 and a 2018 sixth. On draft night, Beane flipped the No. 12 selection to the Buccaneers for No. 7. To move into the top 10, the Bills included the pick they obtained for Watkins (No. 56). They traded Nos. 12, 53 and 56 to Tampa Bay for the slot that became Josh Allen, the third quarterback selected in 2018’s five-QB first round.

With the pick from the Darby deal, the Bills chose defensive tackle Harrison Phillips, who became a four-year contributor and part-time starter. Phillips left in free agency this year to sign with the Vikings. Although Matthews and Gaines did not contribute much in Buffalo, the Allen acquisition obviously changed the franchise’s course.

Despite hurting their 2017 roster by dealing away Darby and Watkins, the Bills made a surprise playoff bid that season. While 2018 featured a considerable step back, the team has qualified for the past three AFC brackets. Allen has since become one of the NFL’s top players, leading the team to the 2020 AFC championship game and into the 2021 divisional round. He is locked in through 2028 via a six-year, $258MM extension. This year’s Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson and Kyler Murray deals have bumped Allen’s contract down to fifth among quarterbacks.

Offseason In Review: Arizona Cardinals

August 10th, 2022 at 9:56pm CST by Sam Robinson

The first Cardinals playoff entrance in six years preceded a complex offseason. The top three players associated with the franchise landed in headlines — either for leaving, being suspended, or, most notably, entanglement in one of the weirder contract plots in recent memory — and the team Arizona will field looks to have more question marks than the 2021 iteration did.

Kyler Murray‘s contract saga dominated all other Cardinals offseason storylines, but this team enjoyed an eventual year on most fronts. With Chandler Jones gone and DeAndre Hopkins suspended, the 2022 Cardinals’ margin for error appears slimmer. Last season’s start showed the capabilities of the Murray-led operation. Its finish revealed potential foundational flaws. However, the Cards — albeit in strange fashion — checked off the top contract box in franchise history. The organization is now committed to the Murray-Kliff Kingsbury–Steve Keim trio, for better or worse.

Trades:

Months before the Murray deal’s bumpy landing, the Cardinals reunited their star quarterback with his top college wide receiver. Brown, perhaps unsurprisingly, no longer wanted to be part of the NFL’s most run-oriented attack. The trade request led the diminutive deep threat to Arizona, and while the Cardinals did recoup a third-rounder from the Ravens, Baltimore collecting a first-rounder for Brown did surprise on draft night. With Hopkins sidelined for the Cards’ first six games, the Oklahoma-established Kyler-Hollywood connection will need to rev up again immediately.

Spending his two-year college career playing only with Heisman winners, Brown lit up Big 12 secondaries. Baker Mayfield oversaw Brown’s freshman breakout, and Murray coaxed bigger numbers (75 catches, 1,318 yards, 10 touchdowns) during his Heisman slate. A Hopkins-Brown-A.J. Green trio, with increased Rondale Moore usage, invites intrigue — slightly more so than last year’s Cards aerial attack did. As nearly every team with a worthwhile 2019 receiver draftee is rewarding them with lucrative extensions, Arizona has a year to evaluate Brown’s fit.

Landing the 5-foot-9 weapon on a rookie contract is favorable compared to overpaying Christian Kirk, but giving up a top offseason asset to do so brings risk. Brown is one of the NFL’s smallest receivers, and he has just one 800-plus-yard season on his resume. Then again, Brown surely has untapped potential at the NFL level. Being tied to Lamar Jackson has not exactly benefited pass catchers not named Mark Andrews. Brown can position himself for a contract north of Diontae Johnson‘s new deal (two years, $36.7MM) by proving he was held back in Baltimore. Even though Brown’s ceiling remains mysterious, the Cardinals extending him now — on a deal in the Johnson realm — may be palatable to seeing him drive up his value in a receiver-friendlier offense.

That said, the Cardinals have been too Hopkins-dependent since acquiring him via trade. Brown adds some speed to one of the NFL’s slower receiver stables. His arrival and the prospect of increased Moore work represents an upgrade on the situation the 2021 Cards deployed. Brown, 25, does pair better with Murray, age-wise, than Hopkins, 30. But, assuming the team wants a Hopkins-Brown long-term partnership, that will become expensive — on a roster now carrying a monster quarterback salary — very soon.

Free agency additions:

Arizona worked quietly in terms of outside free agent hires. Hernandez, Williams and Vigil each could be nice fliers for a team that prioritized UFA retention this year. Going into his age-29 season, Vigil has made 51 career starts, Hernandez was a four-year Giants starter, and Williams played a regular role on one of the NFL’s best offenses.

Hernandez will follow Pugh from New York to Arizona. Despite Pugh coming off an injury-plagued Giants tenure, his market did not suffer much. Hernandez, conversely, went from long-term Giants starter — with a mild injury history — to a player who generated next to no interest. A Cardinals team full of aging starting O-linemen should benefit from a 26-year-old guard with 56 career starts working as a backup. Odds are, Hernandez will be needed as a starter this season. It will be interesting to see if the former second-round pick, whom PFF effectively turned on after a positive rookie-year assessment, can develop more interest on the 2023 market.

Ideally, the Cardinals will not want Williams receiving too many carries. James Conner staying healthy and Eno Benjamin complementing him, post-Chase Edmonds, should be the team’s ideal formula. But Williams was necessary in Kansas City, subbing in for the oft-unavailable Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Nothing flashy here, with three sub-4.0-YPC seasons in four years, but Williams is coming off a season with 1,010 scrimmage yards and eight touchdowns. It garnered him next to no interest on the market, hence the Cardinals visit turning into a $1MM guarantee. But he became a decent outlet option for Patrick Mahomes in 2021. As a depth piece, Williams should work. Given Conner’s injury history, the addition may become relevant soon.

Re-signings:

At long last, the Cardinals have found a quality tight end. The Cards landed Ertz a bit late in the game, with the ex-Eagle’s first full season in Arizona coming ahead of his 32nd birthday. But, considering this team’s history at this position, a quality starter of any age should be embraced. Ertz debuted as a Cardinal on Oct. 24. His 574 receiving yards in 11 games were more than any Cardinal tight end compiled in a season since the franchise relocated to Arizona in 1988.

After previous regimes tried and failed to staff this job, the franchise took a break on devoting much effort to staffing this position in recent years. Ertz as the 11th-highest-paid tight end represents good value for the team, and it should fill one of the NFL’s most troublesome needs for at least the next two seasons. Ertz had sought a deal on the George Kittle–Travis Kelce plane, but the Eagles balked and instead rewarded his replacement (Dallas Goedert) soon after the midseason trade. Less-than-ideal Philly ending aside, Ertz did well for himself with Arizona. The Cards retaining Ertz for $10.6MM per year in March doubled as good timing, given how David Njoku‘s $13.7MM-AAV contract disrupted the market this year.

Conner did even better for himself. After signing a one-year, $1.75MM deal in 2021, the ex-Steeler starter rewarded the Cardinals (and numerous fantasy GMs that took mid-round swings) with an 18-touchdown season. Only David Johnson‘s outlier 2016 produced more in a Cardinals season. The team missed in extending Johnson, who admittedly was stuck on some bad teams after his three-year, $39MM accord. But that was a top-market deal at the time. Conner’s pact, along with Leonard Fournette‘s Buccaneers deal and Austin Ekeler‘s wildly Chargers-friendly accord, effectively establishes a veteran middle class at a position in which non-top-tier veterans annually run into grim markets.

This works out well for Conner, whose $13.5MM guarantee ranks ninth among backs. The cancer survivor’s 3.7-yard average deceives slightly, since he often was called upon in short-yardage situations. He provided solid ground and air support to a Cards team short on available offensive talent down the stretch last season. Turning his healthiest season into a career-defining payday is a feel-good story at a position that does not produce too many of them anymore. With Edmonds in Miami, however, the Cards are making a risky bet that Conner — who accumulated injuries requiring absences in each of his four Pittsburgh seasons and went down with a heel malady late last year — can stay on the field to justify this payment.

The Giants’ bizarre Mike Glennon-over-McCoy QB2 move may well have led to Brian Daboll‘s HC opportunity, with Joe Judge potentially avoiding a pink slip had the team simply brought back McCoy. Instead, McCoy enhanced his backup-QB dossier by ensuring the Cards survived Murray’s hamstring injury. Arizona’s two McCoy-led wins were rather important to their postseason cause. The Cards are planning to count on the veteran through his age-37 season, though. Murray’s injury past shows the backup will probably be needed during that span.

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Poll: Who Will Make Most Seahawks QB Starts In 2022?

August 10th, 2022 at 2:33pm CST by Sam Robinson

While Russell Wilson did not enter his first offseason as a lock to start, and Tarvaris Jackson did bridge the 2011 gap between Matt Hasselbeck and Wilson, the Seahawks have not exactly experienced much late-summer quarterback uncertainty in the 21st century. Even going back to the late 1990s, Jon Kitna ended his Seattle run as the team’s unquestioned starter for multiple seasons.

This run of stability stopped when the team dealt Wilson to Denver in March. Although the Seahawks were connected to both Baker Mayfield — whose early destination prediction was Seattle — and rookie prospects, they have stayed the course. The Geno Smith–Drew Lock battle is unfolding in earnest at training camp. Will this be how the team replaces Wilson?

Right now, Smith — Wilson’s three-year backup — is in the lead, per Pete Carroll. The 10th-year passer will start the Seahawks’ first preseason game Saturday. This marks the second straight year Lock will begin the preseason as a backup. He did so behind Teddy Bridgewater last year, and that status turned out to be indicative of the Broncos’ 2021 plans for the former second-round pick.

Smith, 31, has taken most of the snaps behind Seattle’s first-string offensive line during camp, Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times notes, but Lock, 25, outperformed him in the team’s mock scrimmage recently, Gregg Bell of the Tacoma News-Tribune tweets. The Mizzou product led multiple scoring drives despite helming the second-team offense against Seattle’s first-team defense. Lock will likely move into the starting lineup at least once during the Seahawks’ three-game preseason slate. Lock limiting his turnovers at Seahawks camp has impressed Carroll as well, per Condotta.

The Seahawks know what they have in Smith, who has gone from being a multiyear Jets starter to a player that has sat exclusively behind durable QB1s. The infamous IK Enemkpali locker-room punch thrust Ryan Fitzpatrick into a Jets starting role in 2015, and Smith played behind Fitz in 2016 as well. Smith’s 2017 Giants deal did produce one start, when then-HC Ben McAdoo benched Eli Manning. That move led ownership to can McAdoo and GM Jerry Reese. Smith’s Chargers accord did not lead to any starts, with Philip Rivers well into his start streak in 2018, and Wilson’s start streak hummed into October 2021. Smith completed 68.4% of his passes, throwing five TDs to one INT, and averaged 7.4 yards per attempt in his three-plus-game cameo last season.

A Lock rookie-year hand injury kept him sidelined behind Joe Flacco and Brandon Allen, but he finished that year with five Broncos starts. Denver did not bring in any competition for Lock in 2020, but the strong-armed QB’s sophomore season began his path out of town. The streaky passer led the NFL in INTs (15), doing so despite missing three starts and failing to finish another. Even as Bridgewater battled multiple injuries in 2021, he continued to start over Lock. Bridgewater’s second 2021 concussion, which came in Week 15, led Lock back to work. While Lock again enjoyed moments, he finished with a 23.4 QBR in limited action. The Broncos lost each of his three season-ending starts.

It would seem the Seahawks have a floor-vs.-ceiling decision to make, with Smith representing the safer option. But a clear upgrade should be available soon. The 49ers want to avoid releasing Jimmy Garoppolo early, keeping him away from the division rival with a quarterback need. But with Garoppolo’s $24.2MM base salary becoming guaranteed just ahead of Week 1, the Seahawks lurk. They have done homework on the four-plus-year San Francisco starter, and while no trade is likely here, Seattle could obtain Garoppolo on a much cheaper salary if/when he is cut.

Will the Seahawks be the team that ends up with Garoppolo? Or will their months-long Lock-Smith competition produce a winner worthy of sticking around as Wilson’s successor? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.

5 Key Stories: 7/31/22 – 8/7/22

August 7th, 2022 at 4:50pm CST by Adam La Rose

With training camps well underway, there have been a number of significant developments with on- and off-the-field implications this past week. In case you missed anything, here’s a quick recap of the top stories from around the league:

  • Watson Given Six-Game Suspension: The long-awaited ruling from former judge Sue L. Robinson was handed down Monday morning, and imposed a ban for the first six games of the season on Deshaun Watson. The Browns QB was found to have violated the NFL’s Personal Conduct Policy by virtue of his “nonviolent sexual conduct” during massage sessions dating back to his time with the Texans. As it stands, the punishment will cost Watson $345K in salary; things could change significantly soon, however, since the league has appealed the decision, and is looking to have both its length and financial penalties increased by a new third-party arbiter.
  • Samuel Signs Extension: After formally requesting a trade earlier this offseason, wideout Deebo Samuel completed his course reversal by inking a three-year, $71.55MM extension. The new deal will keep him in San Francisco through 2025, and moves him into the top-10 in the league in annual compensation ($23.85MM) at the position. The 26-year-old now has the financial security to replicate his success from last season – where he earned All-Pro honors for his unique effectiveness in the air and on the ground – but also the opportunity to hit the open market in the not-too-distant future.
  • Dolphins, Ross Punished For Tampering: The Dolphins were docked a 2023 first-round pick and a 2024 third-rounder for their attempts to acquire QB Tom Brady and head coach Sean Payton. In addition, owner Steven Ross was suspended until October and fined $1.5MM. The organization was found to have committed tampering violations of “unprecedented scope and severity,” leading to the substantial discipline being handed down. Ross and the team were, on the other hand, cleared of any wrongdoing with respect to the tanking allegations made by former head coach Brian Flores.
  • Steelers Extend Johnson: In the immediate build-up to his new deal being finalized, all signs seemed to point to Diontae Johnson departing in free agency at the end of this season. Instead, he signed a two-year extension worth $36.71MM. Surprisingly, the Pro Bowler came in short of the $20MM-per-year mark that each of his 2019 draft classmates (among several other wideouts) who have been extended this offseason eclipsed. Like Samuel, though, he can build off of a career-year over the course of the pact’s short term and test the free agent market while still in his prime.
  • Cardinals Extend Humphries: Not long after signing QB Kyler Murray to a massive extension, Arizona took care of his blindside blocker as well. Left tackle D.J. Humphries signed a three-year, $66.8MM extension to keep him on the books through 2025. The 28-year-old now ranks ninth in the league in terms of annual average compensation ($16.98MM) amongst left tackles as a result of the deal. He will look to continue his Pro Bowl form of last year as another key member of the Cardinals’ offense who is on the books for the foreseeable future.  

Offseason In Review: Carolina Panthers

August 4th, 2022 at 9:55pm CST by Sam Robinson

The Panthers have one- and two-win seasons on their 21st-century resume, but the franchise has never gone through a stretch like the one it has submitted over the past three years. Prior to 2020, there was only one instance of Carolina finishing consecutive seasons with double-digit losses (2010-11). Entering Matt Rhule‘s third year, the current streak is three. The Panthers’ three straight five-win campaigns has made Rhule’s seat hot and made David Tepper‘s authorization of a seven-year, $63MM contract look shortsighted.

Rhule’s handling of the quarterback position has led his regime to the brink, but the team took another swing — albeit belatedly — this offseason. While this could lead the best quarterback to Carolina since a pre-injuries Cam Newton, it also may not be enough to stave off a Tepper urge to cut his losses.

Trades:

Carolina aimed to bring in a quarterback with a greater pedigree. The team submitted what might have been the second-best offer for Matthew Stafford last year, and GM Scott Fitterer inquired about a reunion with Russell Wilson, whom he helped draft during a 20-year Seattle stay. Deshaun Watson obviously loomed as a big fish for the Panthers, who pursued the embattled quarterback for two offseasons. The team passed on taking QBs with back-to-back top-10 picks, selecting Jaycee Horn over Justin Fields and Mac Jones and choosing Ikem Ekwonu over ex-Rhule Temple recruit Kenny Pickett. This journey led to the Panthers completing a second offseason program with Sam Darnold — the QB the team settled on via a three-pick trade haul in 2021 — in the pilot seat.

Darnold’s disastrous Carolina debut led the team to Mayfield, after a Tepper-fueled three-month odyssey that had Carolina and Cleveland — who spent most of the offseason at Nos. 1 and 2 in cap space — haggling over a few million of the former Browns starter’s salary. While the Panthers made out well in this deal — the low pick and being responsible for just $4.86MM of Mayfield’s $15MM-plus salary — Tepper’s insistence not to overpay led Mayfield to remain in Browns exile into July. Rhule and Fitterer wanted Mayfield at the Panthers’ minicamp. Instead, the four-year Cleveland QB1 had barely two weeks to digest new OC Ben McAdoo‘s offense ahead of training camp.

But Mayfield, his brutal 2019 and ’21 seasons notwithstanding, represents a clear upgrade for the Panthers. His Offensive Rookie of the Year second-place finish and his bounce-back 2020 season under Kevin Stefanski, snapping the NFL’s longest active playoff drought, reflects well on his abilities — at least compared to Darnold.

Mayfield, 27, also had mostly better offensive lines compared to the passer drafted two spots after him, but Darnold maxed out at 26th in QBR (2019) and has placed 33rd in this metric in each of the past two seasons. While inconsistent, Mayfield (10th in QBR in 2020, a 26-touchdown pass, eight-interception year that had the Browns near a surprise AFC championship game bid) has reached much higher peaks and would not shock by becoming an above-average starter again. Darnold has not come particularly close to that level.

In Carolina, the polarizing passer is on track to have a chance to play behind a much better Panthers O-line than Darnold had in 2021 and work with a more well-rounded receiving corps than he had in Cleveland. Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry represented, on paper, a strong receiver foundation. But the Mayfield-Beckham fit is part of the reason why the 2017 Heisman winner is in Charlotte. Working with D.J. Moore, Robbie Anderson and Christian McCaffrey (ideally) could provide Mayfield gateways to either an intriguing free agency bid or a long-term Panthers contract. The apparent upgrade aside, Mayfield injects a high degree of variance into a make-or-break season for Rhule, whose two prior QB swings (Darnold and Teddy Bridgewater) missed.

The Panthers will wait to determine Mayfield’s extension viability, but with the team likely to have a fourth Week 1 QB in four years, it would be wise — if a healthy Mayfield re-establishes himself — for Carolina to attempt to keep its trade acquisition off the 2023 market. The Panthers have a history of a buy-low quarterback breaking through in Year 1, with Jake Delhomme guiding the 2003 team to Super Bowl XXXVIII and signing two extensions. Although Carolina does not look particularly close to a Super Bowl contender, this season could be one of the more interesting QB slates — as Mayfield could veer back toward a franchise-QB contract or skid into stopgap-starter purgatory — in recent memory.

Anything from 2023 franchise-tag value to QB2 money could await the ex-Progressive pitchman come March. Mayfield’s 2022 performance will likely determine this scuffling franchise’s trajectory.

Free agency additions:

Darnold, Newton and P.J. Walker faced steady pressure last season. Pro Football Focus rated Carolina’s offensive line 31st. Panthers QBs were sacked 52 times — fifth-most in the league. The team responded by adding three starter-caliber O-linemen, including two veterans during free agency’s first week.

Corbett, a Mayfield teammate for a season and change, did not find his form until relocating from Cleveland to Los Angeles. The Rams plugged in the 2018 second-round pick at both left and right guard during his 2 1/2-season L.A. run. After the Browns did not feel Corbett was ready (one start in 1 1/2 seasons), the Rams used him as a full-timer almost throughout his tenure. Corbett started every game over the past two seasons, filling in as a much-needed rookie-contract starter for the NFL’s premier star-chasing team. PFF graded Corbett as a top-25 guard in each of the past two years, but the Rams’ penchant for splashy extensions forces them to let role players walk annually. The Panthers will benefit and have Corbett tied to a deal barely inside the guard top five through 2024.

Surprisingly, Bozeman was available for much cheaper. PFF’s No. 11 center last season, Bozeman was unable to follow the Ryan Jensen path. The Ravens’ latest contract-year center success story will need to prove himself again. This deal is a bargain for the Panthers, who now have Bozeman in a battle with Pat Elflein, who signed a three-year, $13.5MM deal in 2021. Brought in as a guard alongside Matt Paradis, Elflein played both interior spots last season. The loser of this competition will represent a valuable swing player. Though, if Elflein loses, the Panthers will have some slightly expensive backup O-linemen in Elflein and Cameron Erving ($4.1MM 2022 base salary).

Carolina has more options up front this year. Ioannidis will move from a Washington team that had so many options it reduced its former sack leader’s workload. Ioannidis being a Temple alum naturally led him to Rhule, an ex-Temple HC-turned-hoarder of mid-2010s Owls. Rhule’s insistence on adding his old college players aside, Ioannidis totaled 16 sacks and 27 QB hits from 2018-19 — before Washington’s Montez Sweat–Chase Young duo formed — and earned an extension. Washington’s current regime bailed on that deal, and he suffered a bicep tear early in 2020. Minimized behind Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen in Washington last season, Ioannidis should have a clearer role alongside Derrick Brown.

Foreman found footing as Derrick Henry‘s primary replacement last season, accumulating 133 carries after totaling just 29 from 2018-20. The former third-round pick averaged 4.3 yards per carry. If the Panthers are to keep McCaffrey relatively healthy, Foreman needs to be a backfield regular. The team has not used its backups enough when McCaffrey has been available, but after the rampant 2020s injury trouble, the one-time All-Pro has hit a crossroads season. The Panthers listened on CMC trade calls this offseason, though moving his still-market-topping $16MM-per-year contract would have been difficult after the past two seasons. McCaffrey, 26, has missed 22 games since 2020.

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