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Poll: Which Sub-.500 Team Has Best Chance To Make Playoffs?

October 20th, 2022 at 2:32pm CST by Sam Robinson

Particularly in the NFC, the early part of this season has brought considerable parity. Many would-be contenders have stumbled out of the blocks. Two 2-4 NFC squads — the Cardinals and Saints — will match up tonight in a game that will put the loser in an early-season bind.

A 2-4 start does not bring the historic uphill battle 0-3 does. Since the playoffs expanded to six teams per conference in 1990, four squads — including the 49ers last season and the 2019 Titans — have rebounded from that record to reach the conference championship round. The 1993 Oilers crafted a more remarkable pivot, rallying to earn a bye. No 2-4 team has ever reached a Super Bowl, however.

The Broncos are probably the most disappointing of the 2-4 lot. Their Russell Wilson–Nathaniel Hackett marriage has produced a spree of listless outings, leading to social media backlash and big-picture questions. Denver’s offense ranks 32nd in scoring and has particularly struggled coming out of halftime. The Broncos’ offense has accounted for three third-quarter points all season, turning up the heat on Hackett, who joined Kevin O’Connell and Dan Quinn as Broncos HC finalists.

This staggering unproductivity has marginalized a dominant defense, one that has seen 2021 draftees Patrick Surtain II and Baron Browning — after an offseason position change — take second-year leaps. Denver has the 18th-toughest schedule remaining, per Tankathon, though the team has both Chiefs contests still to come. As injuries mount for the once-promising team, its road to the playoffs appears difficult.

Cleveland and Pittsburgh join Denver at 2-4 but are just one game back of the AFC North lead. The Browns’ controversial Deshaun Watson acquisition led most to temper expectations for this season, with Watson banned 11 games. Cleveland also enjoyed a favorable early-season schedule, but the Jacoby Brissett-led team is 1-3 in games in which it has been favored. The Browns (10th-easiest remaining schedule, record-wise) brought back Jadeveon Clowney this offseason and have Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward on top-market contracts. Both Garrett and Ward have missed time, and Joe Woods‘ defense ranks 30th. Although the Browns have hoarded cap space — likely because of Watson’s contract — their quarterback-in-waiting’s cap number spikes from $9.4MM to $54.9MM from 2022 to ’23, placing a bit more emphasis on this season’s result.

The Steelers (11th-easiest remaining schedule) upset the Buccaneers despite most of their secondary joining T.J. Watt in missing Week 6, but the team is making a transition at quarterback. The Steelers’ Mitch Trubisky acquisition, his Week 6 rally notwithstanding, did plenty to create the early-season hole. Kenny Pickett figures to make the bulk of the starts the rest of the way for a team that has not finished under .500 since 2003.

Initial Jaguars optimism has faded somewhat, after a three-game skid. Trevor Lawrence has climbed to 13th in QBR, from 28th as a rookie, and Travis Etienne‘s health is starting to pay dividends. The front-seven investments the Jags made this year have led to improved talent defensively; Mike Caldwell‘s unit ranks ninth in points allowed. Jacksonville (13th-toughest remaining schedule) also plays in a division featuring winning teams with major questions, though its perennial struggles against presumptive non-threat Houston indicates Doug Pederson‘s team may be at least a year away from contending.

Aside from the Broncos, the Raiders (minus-5 in point differential) are probably the most interesting team here. Las Vegas’ new regime paid up for Davante Adams and extended prior-regime investments Derek Carr, Darren Waller and Maxx Crosby. Those moves have thus far led to close losses. The Raiders (ninth-easiest remaining schedule) are 1-4, with their Patrick Graham-coordinated defense ranking 28th. The AFC West does not appear as menacing as initially projected, and 1-4 is not the death sentence 0-3 is historically. But this Raiders retooling effort will need multiple offseasons, the next one including (presumably) a first-round pick.

Rallies against the Falcons and Raiders, respectively, lifted the Saints and Cardinals to 2-4. Both teams are also just one game out in their parity-fueled divisions.

Arizona’s three-extension offseason (Kyler Murray, Kliff Kingsbury, Steve Keim) has not instilled much confidence this will be the year the Murray-led operation becomes a serious threat. Arizona (15th-toughest remaining schedule) ranks 22nd both offensively and defensively, and its DeAndre Hopkins-less receiving corps led to numerous pass-catching combinations. The team has traded for both Marquise Brown and Robbie Anderson, but the Hopkins sidekicks will not share the field together for a while due to Brown’s injury. Kingsbury is already considering ceding play-calling duties.

The Saints (seventh-easiest remaining schedule) have again run into receiver staffing issues. Jarvis Landry has missed most of the season, and Michael Thomas‘ foot injury will lead to Thursday being the former All-Pro’s 29th missed game since 2020. Jameis Winston‘s back fractures have turned Andy Dalton into New Orleans’ regular starter. While the Dalton investment (one year, $3MM) has proven important, Dennis Allen‘s defense — a top-five unit in each of the past two seasons — ranks 29th.

Do any of the other sub-.500 teams — most of which residing in the rebuilding sect — have a chance to rebound this season? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on this year’s collection of struggling teams in the comments section.

Trade Candidate: Robert Quinn

October 14th, 2022 at 2:03pm CST by Sam Robinson

A report emerged Thursday indicating the Commanders, particularly in the event of a Thursday-night loss, would be prepared to shop some of their veterans. But the Bears lost, which should bring one of their veterans’ statuses to the forefront.

Robert Quinn is both tied to a long-term contract — a five-year, $70MM pact that runs through 2024 — and said upon reporting to training camp he did not seek to be traded. That said, Quinn has been traded twice in his career. He also was rumored to be wanting another scenery change this offseason, with that report preceding an unexcused minicamp absence. At 32, Quinn does not profile as a cornerstone player for the Bears’ Ryan Poles–Matt Eberflus era. Teams were monitoring the 12th-year pass rusher earlier this year; interest still stands to come the Bears’ way. Will Chicago act on it?

The Bears should be expected to entertain interest that stands to come their way for Quinn. Poles has not shied away in remaking the team. Eberflus’ defense looks quite different from Sean Desai‘s 2021 unit, which housed the likes of Khalil Mack, Akiem Hicks, Eddie Goldman and Danny Trevathan. The Bears cut the latter two, traded Mack and let Hicks sign with the Buccaneers. This is a younger defense. The first draftee obtained via the Mack trade — safety Jaquan Brisker — has played every defensive snap for the rebuilding team this season. Acquiring another pick or two for Quinn would make sense, now that the Bears have slunk to 2-4.

Less than three weeks remain until this year’s trade deadline (Nov. 1), and the Bears may have cost themselves a bit in terms of value by holding onto Quinn this offseason. After a two-sack 2020, Quinn stormed back with his most productive year since his 2013 All-Pro season. He broke Richard Dent‘s single-season franchise sack record, moving the number to 18.5 during a campaign that did not feature much Mack (due to injury). In 2022, however, Quinn has just one sack and two quarterback hits in six games.

Interested parties will nonetheless surface, when considering contending teams’ injury tolls and the edge position’s value. The Broncos collected second- and third-round picks for Von Miller at last year’s deadline. While the Bears are unlikely to extract such a haul for Quinn, ESPN.com’s Bill Barnwell offered a scenario in which the Rams (Quinn’s original team) reacquire him for two third-rounders. The Rams have not been shy about in-season edge rusher augmentation, acquiring Miller and Dante Fowler at the deadline during Sean McVay‘s tenure, and have had a need opposite Leonard Floyd since Miller spurned their free agency offer to join the Bills.

The Chargers also make sense for Quinn, who would reunite with Mack in this scenario. Unlike Mack, however, Quinn was not with the Bears during Brandon Staley‘s Windy City stay. Still, Joey Bosa is out for at least two months and is not expected to be 100% again this season. The Bolts made Mack part of an extensive defensive reload effort, attempting to maximize Justin Herbert‘s rookie contract, and Quinn would be an upgrade alongside Mack. The Titans are down Harold Landry for the season and have seen Bud Dupree run into more injury trouble. Injuries would help determine other potential fits as the deadline nears.

Denver’s Miller haul would represent a (likely unrealistic) goal for Chicago. Younger Quinn versions went for fourth- and sixth-round picks (in 2018) and a sixth-rounder (2019). Leonard Williams went for third- and fifth-rounders at the 2019 deadline, to a non-contending Giants team, while Yannick Ngakoue fetched the same haul (in the second of his three career trades) during the 2020 season. Quinn’s 2021 production would allow the Bears to ask for an Ngakoue-type package for Quinn, though his age may lower the price. Thirty-something edges Melvin Ingram and Everson Griffen landed their teams sixth-rounders, and Carlos Dunlap brought the Bengals a seventh and O-lineman B.J. Finney. Quinn’s value is higher than those players at this point. Something in between the Ngakoue 2020 price and the Ingram-Griffen-Dunlap tier would be reasonable.

The Broncos also collected the haul they did because they ate $9MM of the $9.7MM remaining on Miller’s contract. The Bears, who took on $24MM in Mack dead money, could increase their compensation by doing the same. That would seem in play, given how Chicago has operated under Poles thus far. Draft compensation will be more important than a few million in salary in a clear rebuilding year. More than $8MM remains on Quinn’s $12.8MM base salary this season. He is tied to $13.9MM and $12.9MM nonguaranteed bases in 2023 and ’24, giving an acquiring team flexibility.

Expect Quinn trade rumors to re-emerge soon. He has 102 career sacks and should be one of the top players available at this year’s deadline. What other teams would make sense for the talented sack artist?

Poll: Which Head Coach Will Be Fired First In 2022?

October 8th, 2022 at 10:00pm CST by Adam La Rose

One month into the 2022 campaign, few NFL teams have truly surged out of the gate and distanced themselves from the rest of the field. There are some, on the other hand, which have invited speculation about potential coaching changes.

Calls for a firing have most loudly been made so far in Carolina. Matt Rhule entered this year, his third with the Panthers, with expectations to steer the franchise back into playoff contention. His ability to do so at both Temple and Baylor earned him a sizeable first NFL head coaching deal, but results have been lacking so far. 

[RELATED: Communication Issues Between Rhule, OC McAdoo?]

The acquisition of quarterback Baker Mayfield and a return to health from star running back Christian McCaffrey led to optimism that improvement on the offensive side of the ball in particular would be coming. Instead, the Panthers rank last in the league in yards, and 17th in points scored so far. A severe lack of wins when allowing more than 17 points has stretched into 2022; the fact that the 47-year-old continues to back Mayfield as the team’s No. 1 signal-caller will tie the pair together, though, regardless of their shared success or failure. Despite the significant term remaining on his first NFL deal, Rhule could make way for a more experienced option if an offensive resurgence doesn’t take shape.

The same may end up being true of Frank Reich in Indianapolis. The team’s annual replacement of their starting QB resulted in the arrival of Matt Ryan and the expectation of far more stability at the position compared to Carson Wentz. The former MVP has struggled mightily with respect to ball security, however, leading the league in both interceptions (seven) and fumbles (11). His 21 sacks taken have further hampered an offense averaging a league-worst 13.8 points per game.

Winless through the first half of their divisional contests, the Colts currently sit third in what is still considered an underwhelming AFC South. Plenty of time for a turnaround exists, of course, but there is added urgency around the team after 2021’s late-season collapse which cost them a playoff berth. Reich is tied to general manager Chris Ballard, as the pair were extended through 2026 just last year, potentially giving them a longer leash in the Ryan era, which they hope will last far longer than that of his predecessors. Early returns on the team’s investment in that trio have certainly been underwhelming, though.

In Arizona, Kliff Kingsbury entered 2022 with the expectation that the Cardinals’ inconsistencies would be corrected. After a hot start ended with a disappointing end to the campaign in 2021, Kingsbury and GM Steve Keim each received extensions and are now on the books through 2027. That move was eventually followed up by a massive second contract for QB Kyler Murray this summer, leaving the potential for he and Kingsbury to remain together for the foreseeable future.

However, Arizona has started 2-2 this season, ranking in the middle of the pack offensively. The absence of wideout DeAndre Hopkins, dating back to late last year, has hamstrung the team on that side of the ball to such a degree that Kingsbury’s scheme has increasingly come under fire. In spite of year-to-year improvement in the win-loss column over the course of his tenure on the sidelines, then, the 43-year-old is considered to be facing something of a make-or-break proposition in 2022. The return of Hopkins from suspension will no doubt give the offense a boost, but whether that translates to increased success – especially early in games – will be worth monitoring closely.

Another team facing unexpected struggles with the ball is the Broncos, led by rookie HC Nathaniel Hackett. The addition of QB Russell Wilson has not yielded anywhere near the production which was expected upon his arrival (and subsequent extension) heading into the season, with blame being shared between the two. Denver’s calamitous efforts in the red zone in particular have led to poor primetime showings and a 2-3 record.

Hackett has already responded by bringing veteran advisor Jerry Rosburg out of retirement, though Thursday night’s loss to the Colts did little to quell doubts about the team’s 2022 prospects. The growing list of injuries Denver is dealing with on both sides of the ball would have hampered their playoff chances regardless of if Hackett had taken the Broncos gig or any of the other four he interviewed for this winter. Still, the fact that he has risen up the list of contenders to be replaced so early in his tenure speaks to how problematic it has been so far.

Will one of these four coaches be the first to receive their walking papers, or will that fate befall a different bench boss? Cast your vote in PFR’s latest poll and have your say in the comments below:

Community Tailgate: State Of The Broncos

October 7th, 2022 at 10:58pm CST by Sam Robinson

Injuries are hitting the Broncos harder than most teams. Starters continue to be moved to IR, with Garett Bolles‘ leg fracture the latest significant issue to emerge. But this is standard in-season fare. Ditto close losses. The Broncos’ bigger-picture problems are not.

The team’s hire of Nathaniel Hackett and trade for Russell Wilson have not produced offensive success; the Broncos’ defense has been largely responsible for their two wins and the team being in position for two more. Hackett and Wilson’s performances keyed both the upset losses to the Seahawks and Colts. Considering what these two figures mean for the franchise’s future, the early returns warrant scrutiny.

Denver cycled through 11 starting quarterbacks between Peyton Manning‘s retirement and the Wilson trade. First-round picks (Paxton Lynch), second-round picks (Drew Lock), free agent signings (Case Keenum) and trades (Joe Flacco, Teddy Bridgewater) did not produce worthwhile solutions, leading the franchise to pony up for Wilson. The Broncos’ eight-asset trade haul — headlined by 2022 and 2023 first-round picks — for Wilson doubled as one of the most expensive in NFL history, and the team committed to the perennial Pro Bowler via the five-year, $245MM ($124MM fully guaranteed) extension in August.

Through five games, the Broncos rank 31st in points per game and 28th in EPA per drive. While the team has mounted productive drives, it is consistently crashlanding in the red zone. This continued Thursday night, when the Broncos were 0-for-4 on touchdowns after reaching the red area. The only two instances of a team going 0-for-4 on TDs in the red zone this season, as ESPN.com’s Field Yates points out (on Twitter), came Thursday and in the Broncos’ bizarre Week 1 loss to the Seahawks. The Broncos have scored touchdowns at a ghastly 21.4% clip in the red zone. That is in last place by a wide margin; the 49ers rank 31st at 40%.

A star quarterback suddenly losing his form at 33 would be one of the more interesting on-field storylines to develop in recent memory, so it is worth speculating whether these rampant issues are Wilson-based or if they are more closely tied to the shift to a new offense. The nine-time Pro Bowler ranks 22nd in QBR, and the latter of Wilson’s two interceptions Thursday helped the Colts tie the game in the final minute. Wilson has rarely opted to use his legs this season; the likely Hall of Famer has 73 rushing yards through five games. That is in line with the new pace he set in 2021 (43 carries, 183 yards), when he missed three games. The Seahawks, who derived considerable value from Wilson’s rushing ability during his 10-year stay, believed Wilson’s run-game reluctancy would increase as he aged. Wilson sits fourth in QB history (behind Michael Vick, Cam Newton and Randall Cunningham) with 4,762 rushing yards.

Wilson’s accomplishments and success leading diminishing Seahawks rosters, at least compared to the franchise’s dominant mid-2010s squads, to the playoffs from 2018-20 point to Hackett being the bigger variable here. The 11th-year passer’s acclimation period to this offense — one that entered Thursday without starting running back Javonte Williams and has played without No. 3 wideout Tim Patrick all season — has been shaky at best. The Broncos’ final offensive play — a fourth-and-1 shotgun set in which Wilson missed an open K.J. Hamler, leading to extensive Hamler post-play frustration — effectively epitomizing the Hackett-Wilson partnership’s first month. Wilson is 2-for-18 on end zone passes this season, per ESPN Stats and Info.

This season has brought Hackett’s first play-calling role since he was fired from his Jaguars OC post during the 2018 season. The dual role of play-caller and game manager proved daunting for Hackett, whose 64-yard field goal attempt decision did well to foreshadow the Broncos’ eventful first month, and a game management assistant (the unretired Jerry Rosburg) is now in place. Situational struggles, as the brutal red zone numbers illustrate, have plagued Hackett since Rosburg’s arrival as well. The last of those produced a notable reaction from ex-Wilson teammate-turned-Amazon analyst Richard Sherman. Hackett rebuilt his career in Green Bay, having a hand in Aaron Rodgers‘ back-to-back MVP awards — and receiving steady endorsements from the future Hall of Famer — and interviewed for four HC jobs this offseason. But his Denver tenure is skidding off track early.

The Broncos rebounded from a 2-3 start in Manning’s first season, shifting quickly to some of Manning’s former Colts concepts to close out that 2012 campaign — a 13-3 season. But that team lost to three division champions, whereas none of this Broncos iteration’s blemishes have come against over-.500 competition. With the Broncos’ new ownership group not having signed off on Hackett, the prospect of a one-and-done HC tenure may be greater.

While these decisions are rare, five coaches (Urban Meyer, Freddie Kitchens, Steve Wilks, Chip Kelly and Jim Tomsula) have been fired during or after their first season. Meyer, Wilks, Kelly and Tomsula all lost 11-plus games; Kitchens’ firing came more as a result of dysfunction. Following Thursday’s result, BetOnline.ag moved Hackett to the top of its first-coach-fired prop odds. With the Broncos tied to Wilson through at least 2025 (due to guarantees), Hackett’s job security will shift to the forefront if his offense continues to produce at this level.

Can the Broncos re-emerge as a more stable operation after their mini-bye? Or have Hackett’s early-season missteps become too big of a concern? How much of the Denver offense’s issues are Wilson-driven compared to the system in which he now finds himself? What does this all mean for the franchise’s long-term outlook? Weigh in on the Broncos’ strange start in PFR’s latest Community Tailgate installment.

2022 NFL Cap Space, By Team

September 30th, 2022 at 1:19pm CST by Sam Robinson

As we exit September, trade rumors will become a steady NFL topic. This year’s deadline falls on Nov. 1. That will return cap-space discussions to the forefront. Here is how every team stacks up financially going into October, via Over The Cap.

  1. Cleveland Browns: $35.94MM
  2. Philadelphia Eagles: $10.89MM
  3. Denver Broncos: $10.67MM
  4. Carolina Panthers: $10.47MM
  5. Las Vegas Raiders: $10.35MM
  6. Dallas Cowboys: $9.25MM
  7. Pittsburgh Steelers: $8.64MM
  8. Green Bay Packers: $8.57MM
  9. Indianapolis Colts: $7.97MM
  10. Atlanta Falcons: $7.92MM
  11. New York Jets: $6.97MM
  12. Chicago Bears: $6.84MM
  13. San Francisco 49ers: $6.75MM
  14. Miami Dolphins: $6.51MM
  15. Arizona Cardinals: $6.25MM
  16. Los Angeles Chargers: $5.83MM
  17. New York Giants: $5.49MM
  18. Jacksonville Jaguars: $5.41MM
  19. Los Angeles Rams: $5.38MM
  20. Baltimore Ravens: $4.51MM
  21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: $3.87MM
  22. New England Patriots: $3.5MM
  23. Cincinnati Bengals: $3.16MM
  24. New Orleans Saints: $2.86MM
  25. Detroit Lions: $2.64MM
  26. Washington Commanders: $2.58MM
  27. Buffalo Bills: $2.44MM
  28. Tennessee Titans: $2.41MM
  29. Seattle Seahawks: $2.28MM
  30. Kansas City Chiefs: $2.12MM
  31. Houston Texans: $1.64MM
  32. Minnesota Vikings: $1.47MM

The Eagles’ number is certainly far closer to the Vikings’ last-place figure than what the Browns have stockpiled. Cleveland would stand to have room to augment its 2022 roster, via a patient free agent or a trade. That could depend on where Jacoby Brissett has the team stationed going into the Nov. 1 deadline. But the Browns also appear to be preparing for their Deshaun Watson future. Watson’s unprecedented contract spikes from a $9.4MM cap number (2022) to a record-shattering $54.99MM numbers from 2023-26. As that reality awaits, the Browns rolling over cap space to 2023 would be prudent.

With Sterling Shepard‘s ACL tear moving the veteran wide receiver to IR, the Giants will need to both cover that cost ($6.3MM) and add a contract to fill the roster spot. Every team will go through versions of that issue this season, as injuries pile up. The Giants are prepared to eat a significant chunk of Kenny Golladay‘s 2022 base salary ($13MM) to move him, eyeing an escape from his $4.5MM 2023 guarantee. No takers have emerged, though it will be interesting to see if a market for the former Pro Bowler forms once injuries affect more teams’ receiver situations.

Since their Jimmy Garoppolo restructure, the 49ers agreed to a two-year extension with Dre Greenlaw. The team is not expected to extend Nick Bosa until 2023, however. The Texans, Falcons, Bears and Eagles all sit north of $60MM in dead money, meaning more than a quarter of their respective cap space is tied to players no longer on the roster. Watson, Matt Ryan and Khalil Mack are responsible for massive dead-money hits on the Houston, Atlanta and Chicago payrolls. Philadelphia still has Alshon Jeffery, Malik Jackson and Brandon Brooks dead money on its cap sheet.

The Changing 49ers QB Outlook

September 24th, 2022 at 8:30pm CST by Sam Robinson

The Kyle Shanahan–John Lynch regime has seen some twists and turns alter its quarterback plans. Although quarterback consistency has eluded this duo for much of its six-season run in San Francisco, the plan to circle back to Jimmy Garoppolo will keep the 49ers in place as an NFC contender.

QB doors not opened hover over this 49ers era. Whereas Garoppolo has dealt with numerous injuries during his San Francisco stay, Shanahan’s initial plan — a 2018 Kirk Cousins free agency addition — probably would have allowed the team better fortune on the health front. The team was also connected to Tom Brady in multiple offseasons, with Lynch shooting his trade-inquiry shot back in 2017 and the Bay Area native being interested in signing with the then-reigning NFC champions in 2020. 49ers ties emerged even during Brady’s brief retirement window.

Shanahan and Lynch went from passing on QB answer in their first draft — one that saw the 49ers trade down from No. 2 to No. 3 and pass on Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson (and Mitch Trubisky, who went second overall) for since-departed defensive lineman Solomon Thomas — before seeing a long-term starter fall into their laps at that year’s trade deadline. That October 2017 trade, which cost the 49ers a second-round pick (No. 43 overall), is still paying dividends five years later.

The Garoppolo era appears near an end, but the 49ers are suddenly all-in again on a player who spent the offseason, training camp and preseason away from the team. Trey Lance‘s season-ending ankle injury dealt an inexperienced prospect a tough blow, but the Week 2 setback — albeit awkwardly — may have bolstered one of the NFL’s top rosters. Garoppolo’s re-emergence figures to stabilize the 49ers, providing them perhaps a considerably elevated floor. (An early-season Lance benching was already being rumored.) Instances in which a contending team loses a QB1 and is viewed as better for it are not exactly common throughout NFL history; this could be one of the few.

This reality nearly fell apart months ago, as the 49ers came close to trading Garoppolo before his value-hijacking March shoulder surgery. The Browns, Rams and Seahawks later loomed as a destinations in the event the 49ers cut him — this saga’s expected endgame in its final weeks. Although the 49ers have said the plan all along was to trade their four-plus-year starter, he always loomed as unusual Lance insurance. The 49ers drafted one of the most atypical quarterback prospects in league history last year, and the Division I-FCS product’s inexperience made going into the season without Garoppolo a tremendous risk. Yet, that appeared the plan. Lynch’s suggestion to approach Garoppolo with a pay-cut proposal ended up preventing one of the NFC favorites from seeing Lance’s injury leave them with an untenable in-house starter option.

While Garoppolo gives Shanahan a safer option to lead a three-All-Pro offense, the 49ers are in one of the weirder places at quarterback in recent memory. Their No. 3 overall pick will have finished his first two seasons with four starts and 102 pass attempts. Those numbers are not unprecedented by any means, but this is obviously a different situation compared to the likes of Jordan Love or busts Johnny Manziel (eight starts through two seasons) and Paxton Lynch (four). Lance, who could be kept through 2025 via the fifth-year option, remains firmly in San Francisco’s plans (indeed, Ian Rapoport of NFL.com tweets that the Niners remain fully committed to Lance, who has a four- to six-month recovery timeline). But this rehab year will nix another shot at in-game development. These chances have continually been taken away from the North Dakota State alum.

Entering 2023, Lance will have just season of regular starter work on his post-high school resume. After redshirting in 2018, Lance tore up the FCS level (albeit with that tier’s best program) with 28 touchdown passes and no interceptions and led the Bison to another national championship. The COVID-19 pandemic led most of college football, save for Division I-FBS, to cancel its 2020 seasons (for the fall, at least). After a one-game 2020, Lance declared for the draft. Despite a highlight reel consisting entirely of redshirt-freshman plays, the dual-threat talent managed to follow fellow Bison standout Carson Wentz by becoming a top-three draftee. But Lance suffered a finger injury in 2021, limiting him during a season in which he was not viewed as a Garoppolo threat.

A sought-after QB prospect having thrown 420 passes in five seasons since high school is historically unusual territory for a player still expected to be a long-term NFL starter. Lance’s misfortune comes after an inconsistent preseason, one that helped push the 49ers to solidify a Garoppolo recommitment. A rocky Week 1 start on a waterlogged Soldier Field enhanced the mystery surrounding Lance’s status. A high ceiling may remain, but after four years away from full-time duty, can the 49ers be sure? San Francisco is also now veering toward Green Bay-Love territory; the 49ers will have gotten next to nothing from a first-round QB contract through two years. Though, Garoppolo’s restructure gives the team some flexibility the Packers lack thanks to Aaron Rodgers‘ record-setting $50.3MM-per-year extension.

Fielding an NFC championship-qualifying team with scant contributions from a No. 3 overall pick highlights the 49ers’ roster strength. Last year’s success and this year’s largely Lance-less operation also magnify the franchise’s decision to trade two future first-round picks to move up nine spots for such an unproven commodity. The 49ers have won in spite of their 2021 Lance- (or Mac Jones?)-motivated decision. It is understandable the 49ers dealt into future draft arsenals to land a quarterback upgrade, as Garoppolo (12th- and 13th-place QBR figures in 2019 and ’21, respectively) maxes out as an above-average option. But the team made a luxury pick with a Super Bowl-caliber roster in place.

The Shanahan-Jones connection likely will not fade anytime soon. Although Jones was not viewed on Lance’s level as a prospect last year, the 49ers’ April trade was initially believed to be for the Alabama QB. The 49ers went through an extensive investigation into Jones, the eventual Patriots pick at 15, before deciding on Lance. A report indicating the 49ers, who had held 2021’s No. 12 overall selection, being worried about the Patriots leapfrogging them for Jones does point to the less mobile passer being their initial preference. While Shanahan said both Lance and Jones would have been good options, the Jones what-if could linger.

Lance’s injury also thrusts Garoppolo’s health history back to the forefront. In addition to the shoulder malady sidetracked his trade market, the ninth-year vet played through calf and thumb issues in 2021, went down with a season-ending ankle problem in 2020 and missed most of the ’18 season due to an ACL tear. The 49ers having 2022 Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy and practice squad journeyman Kurt Benkert as Garoppolo’s only backups suddenly becomes a concern. Shanahan’s intermittent success with a rookie UDFA (Nick Mullens) notwithstanding, the team turning back to the trade market — this time to supplement Garoppolo — would make sense.

A backup with multiple years of control could be a priority as well. Garoppolo’s 2018 extension expires in March. The 49ers venturing to two NFC title games in three seasons without a high-end quarterback represents an achievement when considering the position’s rise in stature as rule changes have pushed most teams to build around the passing game. The quarterback that drew scrutiny for holding his team back being viewed as a rejuvenation tool is ironic, but the 49ers did well to forge this compromise. It could go down as a seminal compromise.

But little is settled for the team beyond 2022. After Garoppolo makes another push at a Super Bowl championship, his restructure’s no-franchise tag clause would stand to lead him to free agent market unlikely to include many attractive options (Lamar Jackson is not hitting the market, and Year 23 might actually be it for Brady). At that point, the paused Lance era will return to the 49ers’ front burner. Lance’s uncertain trajectory will be appropriate for a team that has seen its QB situation produce a highly unpredictable contender during the Shanahan-Lynch period.

Extension Candidate: Saquon Barkley

September 22nd, 2022 at 1:38pm CST by Sam Robinson

Through two games, Saquon Barkley is the NFL’s rushing leader. Barkley’s 236 yards are obviously a big reason why the Giants have jumped out to a 2-0 start. This marks a positive development for Barkley, who lingered as a low-key trade candidate this offseason.

The Joe Schoen–Brian Daboll regime inherited Barkley, who had slid from one of the best running back prospects in modern NFL history to a player whose Giants future was in doubt because of injury trouble. Barkley’s resurgence may need to continue for a bit before the new Giants front office considers extension talks, but on a team that has seen a strange receiver situation cloud its long-term outlook at that position, Barkley could fit as a second-contract piece.

It sounds like the former No. 2 overall pick will be willing to negotiate in-season with the Giants. That was his stance last year, though the early-season ankle sprain he suffered made it three straight years of injury trouble and moved a possible extension well off the radar. Barkley, 25, is now playing on a $7.22MM fifth-year option. Despite Barkley’s injury history, he dropped an early indication he would be willing to play out that option year.

“Any time an athlete bets on himself and goes out there and performs at a high level, you love to see that,” Barkley said, via Ryan Dunleavy of the New York Post. “Whether it’s football, whether it’s baseball, whether it’s basketball, I want all athletes to get what they deserve.”

Since the 2011 CBA introduced the fifth-year option, Barkley is just the second running back to play on it. Melvin Gordon played on the option in 2019, doing so after holding out to start that season. He left Los Angeles in free agency in 2020. With Barkley having shown a higher NFL ceiling — one sidetracked by injuries — this situation brings a bit more intrigue. The Giants have not seen one of their first-round picks play beyond five seasons with the team since 2010 first-rounder Jason Pierre-Paul.

Thanks largely to the 2017 draft class, first and second tiers have formed in the running back market. Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott and Alvin Kamara secured deals at or north of $15MM per year. McCaffrey’s $16MM-AAV Panthers pact — agreed to in March 2020 — still leads the way. From July 2020 to March 2021, the second tier emerged. Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook and Aaron Jones signed deals worth between $12MM and $12.5MM per year. Nick Chubb, part of Barkley’s 2018 draft class, fell in line by signing a $12.2MM-per-year Browns extension in July 2021.

Seven members of the 2017 class, which also includes former UDFA Austin Ekeler, signed upper-echelon or midlevel second contracts with their respective teams. Chris Carson was the only one to do so after reaching free agency. Not all of these contracts have worked out. McCaffrey has battled injuries, and Carson suffered a career-ending neck injury. But most of the recent extension recipients remain on steady trajectories after being paid. This wave of payments cresting after the likes of Le’Veon Bell, Todd Gurley and David Johnson did not justify their contracts has made for an interesting stretch.

These $12MM-$16MM-per-year deals have created a roadmap for a Barkley re-up, though it remains to be seen if the Schoen-Daboll operation views him in that way or will be one to extend a running back. The Giants are not believed to have shopped Barkley, they took trade calls on him before the draft. Barkley’s skillset would make him a candidate for a McCaffrey- or Kamara-type contract. His injury history, and perhaps McCaffrey’s post-extension health issues, could nix that reality. The talented Giants back continuing this early pace and showing the kind of form he did as a rookie (NFL-high 2,028 scrimmage yards) and when healthy in 2019 — behind shaky offensive lines in each season — could change the equation.

The Giants entering discussions with Barkley this season could allow them to lock down their top playmaker and give the injury-prone back some security. Barkley’s 2019 high ankle sprain, 2020 ACL and MCL tears and his 2021 ankle issue threw his career off course, but the team is unlikely to have a big-ticket receiver contract or a franchise-quarterback deal on its 2023 books. Kenny Golladay, Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard and perhaps Kadarius Toney, the way that partnership is going, have uncertain post-2022 futures in New York. Ditto Daniel Jones, who did not see his fifth-year option exercised. After entering this offseason in salary cap trouble, the Giants are projected to be in the top five in 2023 space.

If no Barkley extension occurs this year, he would be headed for free agency. A franchise tag, which CBS Sports’ Joel Corry projects to come in around $10.1MM, would then be an option for the Giants. The Steelers went to this well with Bell, twice; the second time caused quite the stir in 2018. The tag would, however, be a way for the Giants to extend this partnership without committing long-term to a player at such a volatile position. Barkley will have banked more than $38MM on his rookie contract, separating him from most modern backs. Through that lens, an extension would be less financially important for his future. Should Barkley be on a Pro Bowl pace by midseason, it would be interesting to see if he would entertain an extension in the $12MM-AAV range — especially with the cap rising again — or push this situation to the March 2023 tag deadline.

Barkley hitting free agency next year would, should he avoid a severe injury this season, place a top-tier running back in a crowded marketplace. Kareem Hunt, Josh Jacobs, Miles Sanders, David Montgomery and Damien Harris are among the running backs on expiring contracts. We have a long way to go before the prospect of Barkley hitting the market emerges, but his nice start to a contract year opens the door to a few possible futures. Which one will end up transpiring?

This Date In Transactions History: Browns Trade WR Josh Gordon To Patriots

September 17th, 2022 at 9:38am CST by Ben Levine

On this date in 2018, the Josh Gordon saga ended in Cleveland. Following six-plus years of controversy, the Browns shipped the embattled wideout to the Patriots for a fifth-round pick.

A second-round pick in the 2012 NFL Supplemental Draft, Gordon quickly made a name for himself in Cleveland. Following a productive rookie campaign, the receiver exploded in 2013. Despite missing the first two games for violating the NFL’s substance-abuse policy, Gordon finished the year with 87 receptions for 1,646 yards and nine touchdowns, earning him first-team All-Pro honors.

Gordon was slapped with another suspension prior to the 2014 campaign, but the ban was reduced to 10 games and the receiver proceeded to average about 61 yards per game in his five appearances. The NFL laid down the hammer the following offseason, suspending Gordon for the entire 2015 campaign. He was set to return after sitting out the first four games of the 2016 campaign, but he ended up stepping away from the NFL for the entire season.

He was finally reinstated late during the 2017 campaign, and after spending two years away from the game, Gordon finished with 335 receiving yards in five contests. There was hope that he’d emerge as a main piece in Cleveland’s offense for the 2018 campaign, but he quickly found himself in the dog house. While the organization publicly stated they were frustrated with Gordon’s hamstring injury, some in the Browns’ organization reportedly believed Gordon slipped in his recovery program, and it was his rampant off-field issues that finally prompted the Browns to cut the cord.

The Browns later indicated that they were prepared to cut the wideout, but a trade market naturally developed. Cleveland preferred to send Gordon to the NFC, with Dallas, Washington, and San Francisco emerging as potential suitors. While the Browns were seeking a sixth-round pick, New England ponied by a fifth rounder and acquired the receiver on September 17, 2018.

It was a low-risk move for a Patriots team that had previously gambled on reclamation projects, and it was assumed the wideout would have the shortest of leashes with Bill Belichick in charge. From an on-field perspective, the Patriots were in desperate need of receivers. With Julian Edelman sitting out the first four games due to a suspension, Tom Brady was eyeing Chris Hogan and Phillip Dorsett as his top wideouts. Gordon immediately came in and produced, finishing with 40 receptions for 720 yards and three touchdowns.

Gordon once again stepped away from the NFL towards the end of that season, with the NFL later revealing that he was facing an indefinite ban for violating the terms of his conditional reinstatement. The Patriots proceeded to move on and win the Super Bowl without Gordon’s services.

The wideout returned for the 2019 season, and he started each of the Patriots first six games, collecting 20 receptions for 287 yards and one touchdown. A knee injury landed him on IR, and the Patriots ended up cutting bait with him in October. He later caught on with the Seahawks, but he hauled in only seven receptions in five games before getting hit with his fifth career suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. Gordon sat out the entire 2020 campaign before reemerging with the Chiefs last year, where he got into 12 games. He signed with the Titans practice squad earlier this month.

There was hope that Gordon may be able to revive his career in New England. While the receiver showed that he could still be productive when he was on the field, he also continued to prove that he couldn’t be counted on from an off-field perspective. Four years later, the 31-year-old is currently fighting to keep his career alive.

PFR Glossary: Returning From IR

September 15th, 2022 at 11:05am CST by Sam Robinson

Week 1 injuries are starting to affect teams’ rosters. Starters and role players are being placed on injured reserve, a status that continues to evolve via offseason NFL rule changes. More adjustments took place in 2022, which shook up the IR setup of the past two years.

In 2020 and 2021, players placed on IR after the roster cutdown to 53 were permitted to return after three games missed. Teams also were granted considerable flexibility in terms of IR-return volume. After the pre-2020 rules had placed strict limitations on the number of players teams could activate from injured reserve during a season, the NFL — due to the roster uncertainty the COVID-19 pandemic caused — removed the limit of players who could return from IR. Limitations returned this year.

Eight injury-related activations can occur per team over the course of the 2022 season. These apply to players placed on teams’ injured reserve, reserve/non-football injury or reserve/non-football illness lists. The NFL, which removed the reserve/COVID-19 list as a 2022 roster designation, also raised the floor for mandatory games missed due to IR from three to four. Any player moved to IR this week cannot return until Week 6.

While the eight-player rule will reinsert strategy into the IR equation for teams, this maximum is far less restrictive than it was not long ago. For years before the 2012 season, a player being placed on injured reserve meant he was done for the season’s remainder. From 2012-16, teams could bring one player off IR. The player must have missed at least eight games before returning, however, and was not permitted to practice for six weeks. In 2017, two IR-boomerang slots were allowed. The eight-week waiting period remained, but teams could move two players from IR back onto their 53-man rosters.

The 2017 change led to more strategy regarding which players teams would prioritize. That system lasted for three seasons. The March 2020 CBA ratification was to allow three players to be activated from IR per season, but the eight-week waiting period was to remain. The pandemic prompted the league to make sweeping changes five months later, with the August 2020 COVID-related CBA revisions opening the floodgates for in-season activations.

This year’s changes also will enable teams to use two IR-return slots on the same player. Although the league’s first two 2020s seasons featured unlimited activations, players could only be brought back from an injury list once per season. If a player were activated and then placed back on IR, he was done for the rest of the year. In 2022, teams are allowed to activate a player from IR twice (but not three times). If a team were to activate a player off IR twice this year, each move would count toward that team’s eight-activation limit.

Offseason In Review: Seattle Seahawks

September 10th, 2022 at 4:30pm CST by Sam Robinson

The Russell Wilson era doubled as the peak of the Seahawks’ 46-year existence. The third-round pick Seattle invested in 10 years ago helped the team build a championship nucleus, and after most of the defensive cogs from the back-to-back Super Bowl teams departed, Wilson’s development as a passer kept the Seahawks in the playoff mix. This season will look quite different for the franchise, which bailed on the prospect of an 11th Wilson season and third extension.

Trades:

Hours after Aaron Rodgers‘ Packers recommitment, the Broncos pulled the trigger for Wilson. Pete Carroll‘s Combine comments indicating the Seahawks had “no intention” of trading the top quarterback in franchise history came after GM John Schneider had opened trade talks with Broncos counterpart George Paton. The Wilson-Carroll relationship had steadily deteriorated, and the Seahawks became leery of what it would cost to give their star QB a fourth contract. The noise Wilson made about the team’s offensive line and the trade-destination list that surfaced in February 2021 irked the Seahawks, and the 11th-year veteran was unlikely to do another Seahawks extension. This all led to the HC-GM combo that drafted Wilson dealing him for major draft capital with two years left on his contract.

Being willing to part with three first-round picks for Wilson, the Commanders may have presented the best trade package. But Washington was not a Wilson-preferred destination. Although the Bears, Cowboys, Raiders and Saints were on Wilson’s initial 2021 destination list, the Broncos and Giants were quietly added late last year. The Giants and Saints called the Seahawks this year, but Wilson — one of the few NFLers with a no-trade clause — had zeroed in on Denver. For the first time since Matt Hasselbeck‘s 2011 exit ushered in Tarvaris Jackson as Seattle’s starter, the Seahawks have a foggy future at the game’s premier position.

Carroll’s run-heavy M.O. and the Seahawks’ penchant for skimping on offensive linemen (Duane Brown excepted) gnawed at Wilson, the centerpiece of middling rosters over the past few seasons. Seattle attempted more run plays than any team over Wilson’s tenure. Some of those were Wilson scrambles, but Brady Henderson ESPN.com notes team ranked 29th in designed pass-play rate since 2012. That number only climbed to 21st since Wilson broke through as a passer in 2015, making atypical use of a top-tier quarterback contract. Since the “Let Russ Cook” start to the 2020 season preceded a midseason swoon, Carroll largely went back to his preferred style.

Wilson’s extension talks in 2015 and 2019 generated a number of headlines, and each resolution produced a big number ($21.9MM per year in 2015, then-NFL-high $35MM per annum in ’19). Seattle could not recapture the formula it had when it capitalized on one of the great bargains in NFL history; Wilson’s four-year, $2.99MM deal that was on the team’s books as it claimed consecutive NFC championships. During Wilson’s second and third contracts, however, he became one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks.

Since a 2015 season in which Wilson broke through for 34 touchdown passes (after tossing 20 in 2014), his QBR figures have ranked fourth, 15th, 10th, 11th, fifth, eighth and 10th. The final number came despite Wilson struggling in the games immediately following his finger surgery. Wilson made the Seahawks one of the NFL’s highest-floor teams, though rosters that were not on the level of the 2013 and ’14 squads continually ran into first- or second-round obstacles following Super Bowl XLIX.

Some Seahawks staffers viewed Wilson as declining, at 33, but trading him forfeits the franchise access to the NFL’s most common championship route. Carroll opting for a restart/transition year is a bit curious, considering he is the league’s oldest active HC (71 next week). The strategy will apply considerable pressure for Carroll (signed through 2025) and Schneider to strike gold again. Two first-round picks next year — when a far better QB class is expected to emerge compared to 2022 — will help Seattle’s cause, but the odds are against the Seahawks finding a player capable of Wilson’s performance level. The Seahawks also may see the Texans and Lions, each holding two first-rounders without a clear long-term QB plan as well, outflank them in the 2023 draft.

Schneider sought Lock, having liked the former Missouri prospect in 2019, but the failed Broncos starter not beating out Geno Smith represents an early warning sign of the post-Wilson road the Seahawks are about to travel. Lock and the other below-average brigade of Broncos quarterbacks hindered Fant’s progress, but the former No. 20 overall pick may find footing difficult with Smith and/or Lock (again). Harris, 31, became a steady contributor in Denver, moving into a starter role and helping Vic Fangio‘s defense as an inside rusher and frequent passing-lane deterrent. Harris’ 19 passes defensed during his starter years (2019-21) lead all defensive linemen. Harris’ three-year, $27MM Broncos-authorized extension runs through 2023.

Free agency additions:

Nwosu will move from Joey Bosa‘s sidekick to a player that will be expected to produce as a No. 1 edge rusher. Swapping out Carlos Dunlap for a younger talent, the Seahawks will bank on Nwosu taking a step forward. Even with Bosa drawing O-lines’ attention, Nwosu registered just five sacks in 17 games. Nwosu’s 30 pressures did rank 31st last season and were six more than any Seahawk logged in 2021. A second-rounder out of USC, Nwosu should be coming into his prime. He will not turn 26 until December.

A hybrid player who should fit as the Seahawks transition to more 3-4 looks, Jefferson is back after two years away. Seeing time at D-end and D-tackle, Jefferson started 24 games for the Seahawks’ 2018 and ’19 iterations. He made 17 starts for the Raiders last season, totaling career-high numbers in sacks (4.5) and quarterback hits (16).

While Jefferson should be a rotational cog in Seattle, Blythe looks set to go from seldom-used Chiefs backup (12 offensive snaps behind Creed Humphrey last season) to a full-time starter again. This could be an upgrade for the Seahawks. Blythe started at center and guard for three straight seasons with the Rams, including their Super Bowl LIII-qualifying squad. Pro Football Focus graded him as a top-11 guard in 2018 and top-11 center two years later. Blythe, 30, has a clear comeback opportunity for a team that will make no secret of its desire for a smashmouth approach.

Re-signings:

This season brings 11 starting quarterbacks on rookie salaries, two more on fifth-year options and 19 tied to veteran deals. The veteran contingent now houses nine QBs earning $40MM-plus on average. Four more are tied to contracts worth more than $30MM per year. Tom Brady, who has a few income streams and a lavish FOX contract awaiting him, and Ryan Tannehill come in just south of $30MM AAV. Jameis Winston signed a two-year, $28MM pact, while Marcus Mariota — who has not been a full-time starter since October 2019 — signed a two-year, $18.75MM accord in March. Mitch Trubisky signed a two-year, $14MM Steelers deal. Then, there is Geno Smith, a 10th-year veteran who will be a 2022 starting quarterback on a $1.26MM base salary.

Smith, 32 next month, will make his first Week 1 start since 2014. Knocked off his Jets QB1 perch in 2015 (the IK Enemkpali incident), Smith not only never regained any footing with the Jets; he kept signing with teams who employed historically durable quarterbacks (Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Russell Wilson). In what looks like a transition year in which the Seahawks will be connected to college quarterbacks, Smith returns. Discipline for his January DUI arrest may loom, however, though it is not a lock punishment comes this year.

Largely unimpressive with the Jets, the veteran backup fared better than expected in his midseason Wilson relief effort (68% completion rate, 5-1 TD-INT ratio, 7.4 yards per attempt). It would seem Lock will work his way into some starts this season, but Smith does profile as the better fit for a conservative offense. For now, Smith will make one of the stranger Week 1 re-emergences in modern QB annals. Although this $3.5MM number is a raise for Smith, the salaries Mariota, Winston and Trubisky are earning illustrate the rest of the league’s view of him. Smith also re-signed in mid-April, after the Browns chose Jacoby Brissett — who is also out-earning Smith — to fill in for Deshaun Watson.

The Seahawks kept passing on the quarterbacks that fell to this year’s third round; they did not view Malik Willis as NFL-ready. Waiting for a superior 2023 class makes sense, and Carroll said post-draft the Seahawks were unlikely to make another QB trade this offseason. They stuck to their guns.

Seattle let Carolina have Baker Mayfield for a conditional 2024 fifth-rounder and showed no interest in parting with an asset for Jimmy Garoppolo. The Seahawks did homework on Garoppolo and lurked as a landing spot for the former Super Bowl starter in free agency, but given how diligent Garoppolo’s camp was in attempting to find a team that would pay more than the money he is now tied to with the 49ers ($6.5MM salary; $15.45MM max value via playing-time incentives), it looks like the Seahawks were not willing to offer too much money. Garoppolo and Mayfield have obviously proven much more than Smith; that could have impeded Seattle’s 2022 plan.

Dealt repeated injury blows, Penny made an 11th-hour push for some second-contract cash and will be Seattle’s Week 1 starter for the first time. As fantasy GMs observed, Penny exploded for four 130-yard rushing games in his final five contests and finished with an NFL-leading 6.3 yards per carry (on 119 totes) in his fourth season. The surprise 2018 first-rounder has missed 28 career games, but the Seahawks offered lower-middle-class running back dough to see how legitimate that season-closing stretch was.

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