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Looking Into The Four Remaining Franchise Tag Situations

July 6th, 2023 at 10:00pm CST by Sam Robinson

Less than two weeks remain until this year’s franchise tag extension deadline. Following spring extensions for Lamar Jackson and Daron Payne, four franchise-tagged players remain. Three of those (Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram, Josh Jacobs) have not signed their respective tenders. Cowboys running back Tony Pollard has, guaranteeing his 2023 salary.

If no extension agreements are finalized before 3pm CT on July 17, these players will be tied to the tag this season. For players who remain on the tag after that date, no long-term negotiations are permitted until season’s end. With one position dominating the tag landscape this year, here is how the four situations look entering crunch time:

Saquon Barkley, Giants; tag price: $10.1MM

Easily the negotiation that has brought the most twists and turns, Barkley has been in off-and-on talks with the Giants since November. The Giants’ Joe Schoen–Brian Daboll regime inherited Barkley, but they have extended two other Dave Gettleman-era draftees (Daniel Jones, Dexter Lawrence) this offseason. But the team’s most popular player finds himself is battling another leaguewide devaluation of the running back position. As Barkley turned down two offers with AAVs north of $12MM — one of those being higher than $13MM per year — the Giants pulled their top proposal off the table after their March extension-tag sequence involving Jones and Barkley.

Barkley, 26, took issue with being characterized as greedy, citing Giants leaks that did not reveal the full truth about the offers he declined. Insufficient guarantees hover at the root of Barkley’s gripes. With the Giants having the option of re-tagging Barkley for barely $12MM in 2023, it is understandable the two-time Pro Bowler would seek a guarantee north of $22MM per year — to cover both tags.

Only two veteran backs (Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry) are tied to deals including more than $20MM fully guaranteed. While McCaffrey encountered injuries on his second contract, the 1,000-1,000 performer did not run into Barkley’s rookie-deal health issues. Those could certainly be giving Giants brass pause regarding guarantees.

These talks have included rumblings of Barkley skipping training camp — if unsigned by July 17 — and a (likely idle) threat of following Le’Veon Bell‘s 2018 path of sitting out the season in protest. The Giants are believed to be OK with Barkley playing on the tag, but ownership remains high on the former No. 2 overall pick. That might be driving the recent optimism in these talks. The skill-position-deficient Giants relied on Barkley (1,650 scrimmage yards) last season, and while they have let two players (Jason Pierre-Paul, Leonard Williams) play on the tag, the team has never not extended a player whom it tagged. (Both D-linemen signed extensions after being tagged again.)

Evan Engram, Jaguars; tag price: $11.35MM

Barkley’s former Giants teammate broke through for a Jaguars single-season tight end record last season, posting 766 receiving yards to boost Trevor Lawrence‘s development. The Jaguars added Calvin Ridley but cuffed Engram as well. Both the Jags and the seventh-year tight end want to strike a deal, but the most recent rumor coming out of these talks placed the sides as far apart on terms.

Dating back to their Julius Thomas miss, the Jaguars have struggled to staff this position. Engram provided a win for GM Trent Baalke, whose first free agency class as lead Jags decision-maker made significant contributions. But Engram also has a history of inconsistency, having never put it together for an extended stretch as a Giant. Engram does have an original-ballot Pro Bowl nod on his resume (2020) and saw the Giants pick up his fifth-year option prior to that performance. His 2021 provided a letdown, but the Giants — with Jones going down with a neck injury that November — were not exactly in position to see any pass catcher thrive at that point.

Guarantees are undoubtedly an issue here. A 2024 Engram tag would cost $13.62MM, likely giving the 28-year-old pass catcher a guarantee target of $25MM. Only three veteran tight ends (Mark Andrews, George Kittle, Hunter Henry) have secured that at signing, but with those deals taking place in 2020 or ’21, Engram can make a case — on a $224.8MM salary cap — he deserves such security as well. The tight end market appears out of step with its top cogs’ contributions, with Travis Kelce still tied to a $14.3MM-per-year deal. That offers an interesting complication in these Engram discussions as well.

Josh Jacobs, Raiders; tag price: $10.1MM

A threat to miss game checks makes more sense from Barkley, who has earned nearly $40MM in five seasons. Jacobs following suit is less logical, as he has made $11.9MM in four NFL years. The Raiders passed on Jacobs’ fifth-year option, and he proceeded to become the team’s first rushing champion since Marcus Allen did so in a 1985 MVP season. Jacobs, 25, zoomed onto the tag radar with his 2022 performance, but while the Giants have made multiple offers to Barkley, it is unclear if the Raiders are making a serious push to extend Jacobs. The team is still hopeful, but numbers have proven elusive.

The Alabama product has offered cryptic assessments of his negotiations, hinting at making a stand for the running back position. Seeing as Bell has expressed belated regret for passing on $14MM with his 2018 anti-tag crusade, it would surprise if Barkley or Jacobs stayed away into the season. It might be a negotiating tactic, as RBs are low on leverage these days, but the threat of Jacobs skipping Week 1 has surfaced. With Josh McDaniels in a crucial year — after his first Raiders HC season went south quickly — and the Raiders now employing the league’s most injury-prone quarterback (Jimmy Garoppolo), Jacobs putting regular-season absences on the table is an interesting move.

While Jacobs is still more likely than not to be in uniform in Week 1, the prospect of an injury or regression affecting his 2024 market should be a factor here. Jacobs’ light Crimson Tide workload (251 college carries) worked in his favor, but the Raiders giving him an NFL-most 393 touches last season undercuts that advantage to a degree. Players to log that many touches in a season over the past 10 years (Henry, McCaffrey, Bell, DeMarco Murray) either fared far worse the following year or, in Bell’s case, skipped the next season.

With Jacobs not the same threat out of the backfield McCaffrey, Barkley or Alvin Kamara are, a top-market pact will be hard for the fifth-year vet to secure. With McDaniels previously expressing support for the Jon Gruden-era draftee, will be interesting to see what numbers come out of these talks.

Tony Pollard, Cowboys; tag price: $10.1MM

The Cowboys are certainly unafraid to unholster their franchise tag, having used it in each of the past six years. In addition to keeping Pollard away from free agency, Dallas tagged Dalton Schultz, Dak Prescott and DeMarcus Lawrence in that span. With Prescott and Lawrence being tagged twice and Schultz leaving after his tagged season, the Cowboys have been fine letting players carry tag figures into seasons. Considering Pollard’s is the lowest cap hit among Dallas’ recent tags, the team is likely OK with the $10MM number staying on its books this year.

Pollard, 26, presents perhaps a more interesting case for a mid-2020s ascent compared to the Giants and Raiders backs. He has taken just 510 handoffs as a pro — Barkley sits at 954, Jacobs at 1,072 — and offers pass-game explosiveness that helped lead Dallas to drop Ezekiel Elliott.

The six-year, $90MM Elliott extension did not age well for the Cowboys, who are eating $11MM-plus in dead money over the next two years after the post-June 1 cut designation. But Elliott also accumulated more mileage (868 carries) before signing that extension. Pollard’s rookie-contract usage rate and skillset point to a promising late-20s stretch. Although Elliott’s deal helped spread out his cap hits, the Cowboys are eyeing a shorter-term Pollard pact.

As a former fourth-round pick, Pollard was smart to sign his tender and secure the guaranteed salary. Coming off a season in which he totaled 1,378 scrimmage yards and 12 touchdowns, the Memphis alum’s arrow is pointing up. The Cowboys can look at the deal the Packers gave dual-threat back Aaron Jones in 2021 (four years, $48MM) as an example of a good contract for a multipurpose back. The organization’s history with re-tagging players should also point to Pollard aiming for $22MM-plus in guarantees, but with no back earning between $7MM and $12MM on average, both Pollard and the team have interesting decisions to make in the coming days. Unlike Schultz’s 2022 tag period, however, updates have been scarce regarding Pollard talks.

Extension Candidate: Kyle Dugger

July 6th, 2023 at 9:55pm CST by Ben Levine

The Patriots haven’t signed a first- or second-round pick to a rookie contract extension since Dont’a Hightower, who was a member of the 2012 draft class. Things may change in 2023, as the Patriots have a 2020 second-round pick who is worthy of a new deal. Kyle Dugger is currently eligible for an extension, and the safety can make a strong case for a new contract in New England.

The defensive back was a surprise pick out of Division II Lenoir-Rhyne, with the Patriots selecting him 37th-overall in 2020. Following an inconsistent rookie campaign that saw him in and out of the starting lineup, Dugger took it to another level over the past two seasons. Between 2021 and 2022, the safety has compiled 120 tackles, seven interceptions, and three defensive touchdowns. The 26-year-old earned his best Pro Football Focus grade in 2022, finishing 11th among 88 qualifying safeties.

The Patriots secondary will be lacking some leadership in 2023 following the retirement of Devin McCourty, and Bill Belichick and co. will surely want to maintain some continuity in their safeties room. Jabrill Peppers and Adrian Phillips provide some solid depth at the position, and the team has reportedly given cornerback Jalen Mills some reps at safety. The organization also used a third-round pick on Sacramento State defensive back Marte Mapu, perhaps some insurance in case the organization loses their starter next offseason.

However, none of those options offer as much upside as Dugger, and while the team doesn’t have a long track record of extending first- or second-round picks, the safety has easily outperformed most of the other players on that list. Of course, this is the Patriots, and we shouldn’t expect the front office to start negotiating against themselves.

Despite his impressive numbers over the past two seasons, Dugger hasn’t established himself among the top tier of safeties. A top-10 contract at the position would put him in line for an average annual value of $14MM. More likely, New England will be looking to get Dugger under contract for a discounted amount; considering his production and the current contracts at the position, a deal starting around $12MM per year could make some sense.

Fortunately for New England, Dugger’s contract status won’t be a distraction for the fourth-year player.

“That’s not on my mind,” Dugger said of his impending free agency (via Chad Graff of The Athletic). “That’s the business part. I’m on the field and trying to handle business on the field and let that be that. But I definitely enjoy playing with this organization.”

Dugger might not even be the only member of the Patriots 2020 draft class to earn an extension. Fellow second-round pick Josh Uche had a breakout season in 2022, finishing with 11.5 sacks and a top-20 edge rusher grade from PFF. The Patriots probably won’t overpay for one good season, and Uche is mostly a part-time player in their system. However, another 10-plus-sack season would put Uche in line for a massive payday next offseason. If the organization believes his 2022 season was for real, it may be in their best interest to extend the linebacker now.

Offensive lineman Michael Onwenu could be another interesting contender for an extension. The 2020 sixth-round pick earned PFWA All-Rookie Team honors as a rookie, struggled during his second season, and then earned a top-four PFF mark among all guards in 2022. The lineman’s inconsistency makes him a risky extension candidate, but New England could look to hedge their bets and sign him to an affordable deal while they have the chance. As Evan Lazar of the team’s website points out, the organization does have a recent history of trying to retain interior linemen, including Shaq Mason‘s extension and Joe Thuney‘s franchise tag.

Part of the reason for the team’s lack of success in a post-Tom Brady era (besides the quarterback’s obvious defection) was the team’s lack of draft hits. The fact that the Patriots have three worthy extension candidates from their 2020 draft class shows that the organization is starting to rebound in their prospect evaluations.

The NFL’s Longest-Tenured GMs

July 6th, 2023 at 9:25am CST by Sam Robinson

The latest NFL general manager hiring cycle only produced two changes, but each took over for an executive who appeared in good standing at this point last year.

Steve Keim had held his Cardinals GM post since January 2013, and the Cardinals gave both he and Kliff Kingsbury extensions — deals that ran through 2027 — in March of last year. Arizona has since rebooted, moving on from both Keim and Kingsbury. Keim took a leave of absence late last season, and the Cardinals replaced him with ex-Titans exec Monti Ossenfort.

[RELATED: The NFL’s Longest-Tenured Head Coaches]

As the Cardinals poached one of the Titans’ top front office lieutenants, Tennessee went with an NFC West staffer to replace Jon Robinson. The move to add 49ers FO bastion Ran Carthon also came less than a year after the Titans reached extension agreements with both Robinson and HC Mike Vrabel. But controlling owner Amy Adams Strunk canned Robinson — in place as GM since January 2016 — before last season ended. Adams Strunk cited player unavailability and roster quality among the reasons she chose to move on despite having extended Robinson through the 2027 draft months earlier. The Titans are now pairing Vrabel and Carthon.

The Bills reached an extension agreement with GM Brandon Beane two weeks ago. Hired shortly after the team gave Sean McDermott the HC keys, Beane has helped the Bills to five playoff berths in six seasons. Beane’s deal keeps him signed through 2027. Chargers GM Tom Telesco has hit the 10-year mark leading that front office, while this year also marks the 10th offseason of Buccaneers honcho Jason Licht‘s tenure running the NFC South team. Although Jim Irsay fired Frank Reich and later admitted he reluctantly extended his former HC in 2021, the increasingly active Colts owner has expressed confidence in Chris Ballard.

Here is how the NFL’s GM landscape looks going into the 2023 season:

  1. Jerry Jones (Dallas Cowboys): April 18, 1989[1]
  2. Mike Brown (Cincinnati Bengals): August 5, 1991[2]
  3. Bill Belichick (New England Patriots): January 27, 2000[3]
  4. Mickey Loomis (New Orleans Saints): May 14, 2002
  5. John Schneider (Seattle Seahawks): January 19, 2010; signed extension in 2021
  6. Howie Roseman (Philadelphia Eagles): January 29, 2010; signed extension in 2022
  7. Les Snead (Los Angeles Rams): February 10, 2012; signed extension in 2022
  8. Tom Telesco (Los Angeles Chargers): January 9, 2013; signed extension in 2018
  9. Jason Licht (Tampa Bay Buccaneers): January 21, 2014; signed extension in 2021
  10. Chris Grier (Miami Dolphins): January 4, 2016[4]
  11. John Lynch (San Francisco 49ers): January 29, 2017; signed extension in 2020
  12. Chris Ballard (Indianapolis Colts): January 30, 2017; signed extension in 2021
  13. Brandon Beane (Buffalo Bills): May 9, 2017; signed extension in 2023
  14. Brett Veach (Kansas City Chiefs): July 11, 2017; signed extension in 2020
  15. Brian Gutekunst (Green Bay Packers): January 7, 2018; agreed to extension in 2022
  16. Eric DeCosta (Baltimore Ravens): January 7, 2019
  17. Joe Douglas (New York Jets): June 7, 2019
  18. Andrew Berry (Cleveland Browns): January 27, 2020
  19. Nick Caserio (Houston Texans): January 5, 2021
  20. George Paton (Denver Broncos): January 13, 2021
  21. Scott Fitterer (Carolina Panthers): January 14, 2021
  22. Brad Holmes (Detroit Lions): January 14, 2021
  23. Terry Fontenot (Atlanta Falcons): January 19, 2021
  24. Trent Baalke (Jacksonville Jaguars): January 21, 2021
  25. Martin Mayhew (Washington Commanders): January 22, 2021
  26. Joe Schoen (New York Giants): January 21, 2022
  27. Ryan Poles (Chicago Bears): January 25, 2022
  28. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah (Minnesota Vikings): January 26, 2022
  29. Dave Ziegler (Las Vegas Raiders): January 30, 2022
  30. Omar Khan (Pittsburgh Steelers): May 24, 2022
  31. Monti Ossenfort (Arizona Cardinals): January 16, 2023
  32. Ran Carthon (Tennessee Titans): January 17, 2023

Footnotes:

  1. Jones has been the Cowboys’ de facto general manager since former GM Tex Schramm resigned in April 1989.
  2. Brown has been the Bengals’ de facto GM since taking over as the team’s owner in August 1991.
  3. Belichick has been the Patriots’ de facto GM since shortly after being hired as the team’s head coach in January 2000.
  4. Although Grier was hired in 2016, he became the Dolphins’ top football exec on Dec. 31, 2018

This Date In Transactions History: Raiders In Contract Dispute With Rookie RB

July 5th, 2023 at 7:08pm CST by Ben Levine

Josh Jacobs and the Raiders are currently engaged in a stare down regarding the running back’s next contract. Interesting, this isn’t the first time Jacobs and his camp have been embroiled in a contract dispute with the organization.

[RELATED: Raiders’ Josh Jacobs Could Sit Out Week 1?]

On this date in 2019, we learned that negotiations weren’t progressing between the Raiders and their rookie running back. In fact, things were so bad, there was growing belief that Jacobs would not report for the start of training camp.

This kind of threat was almost unheard of following the 2011 collective bargaining agreement, with rookie contracts and signing bonuses being mostly predetermined. So, while Jacobs was the team’s only unsigned draft pick at this point of the offseason, it was assumed that negotiations weren’t contentious and would be finalized eventually.

While some first-year players pushed for changes to the offset language in their rookie contracts, Jacobs was actually looking for changes to the payment schedule of his signing bonus. As our own Rory Parks pointed out at the time, teams don’t have to pay the full amount of a bonus upfront and can instead pay in installments. If the player suffers a non-football injury, the team can then withhold or even recover part of that signing bonus. While the running back surely wasn’t counting on an NFI stint, it made sense that he was looking to cash in as soon as possible.

Ultimately, Jacobs ended up signing his four-year, $11.9MM contract (not including a fifth-year option). The signing came three weeks after the organization inked their other two first-round picks, Clelin Ferrell and Johnathan Abram.

The rookie quickly showed off his first-round pedigree, finishing second in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting after finishing with 1,316 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns. He topped 1,300 yards again in 2020, this time adding 12 touchdowns.

His counting stats took a step back in 2021, and with a new regime at the helm, the Raiders didn’t pick up Jacobs’ fifth-year options. As an impending free agent, the running back proceeded to have the most productive season of his career in 2022, finishing with 2,053 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns. The Raiders slapped Jacobs with the franchise tag following the season.

Despite the production, the Raiders and Jacobs still haven’t been able to agree on a long-term extension, with the two sides having until July 17 to negotiate a new contract. Throughout the ordeal, Jacobs has talked of taking a stance for future running backs, and he’s also hinted at “bad business” coming from the Raiders organization.

Even with the looming deadline, Jacobs is still threatening to sit out games in 2023 if he’s not signed to an extension. In that scenario, Jacobs still wouldn’t get his wish of a new deal, and he’d be sacrificing game checks once the regular season starts. Still, you clearly can’t put it past the running back to hold out, even if there’s little financial incentive when all is said and done. We can just point to the RB’s contract dispute with the organization back in 2019, and while Dave Ziegler has since replaced Mike Mayock as the Raiders GM, the front office is surely aware of who they’re dealing with.

Offseason In Review: Green Bay Packers

July 4th, 2023 at 10:00pm CST by Sam Robinson

In an offseason that eerily resembled the seminal 2008 period, the Packers made two key decisions at quarterback. A third Hall of Fame-bound passer’s Green Bay career has now wrapped, and like the second, Aaron Rodgers relocated to the Big Apple. As they did after trading Brett Favre to the Jets 15 years ago, the Packers will see if a three-year backup can start running with the baton.

Beyond the Rodgers and Jordan Love calls, Green Bay has gone through a low-key offseason. But the team, one looking to bounce back after a disappointing 8-9 season, packed plenty of intrigue into two transactions.

Trades:

Although Rodgers’ three-year, $150.8MM extension was largely hailed at the time as a pact that would allow the four-time MVP to finish his career in Green Bay, rumblings about a separation — while far quieter compared to a turbulent 2021 — came about shortly after the agreement. The Packers then outfitted their latest Canton-bound quarterback with a noticeable receiver downgrade, following the departures of Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, helping lead to Rodgers relinquishing his MVP throne. Brian Gutekunst deferred to Rodgers’ MVP trophies when asked if the 15-year starter or Love gave the 2023 team a better chance to win, but the veteran GM also began indicating the backup was ready to start. An eventful three-month period commenced to reach that destination.

At odds during a 2021 offseason in which Rodgers requested a trade, Gutekunst and the superstar QB did not hash out this situation this offseason. As the Packers parties stayed apart, the Jets entered the fray. Making their desperation for a veteran arm known — after Zach Wilson became the latest of their rookie-contract starters to underwhelm — the Jets courted Rodgers and were given permission to meet with him in March. The California summit led to Rodgers signing off on the Favre-ian path.

It took only a conditional third-round pick for the Jets to pry an unretiring Favre’s rights from the Packers. The Buccaneers were in that race as well. While the Jets oddly had the field to themselves for Rodgers this offseason, the Packers were able to obtain much more in compensation. Green Bay initially angled for a Russell Wilson-type haul — which the Broncos parted with after seeing their inquiries into Rodgers shut down during the 2021 and ’22 offseasons — talks eventually centered on a first-round pick changing hands.

It had been assumed the Packers could not fetch a first-rounder for a player no longer in their plans and one due a $58.3MM bonus before Week 1, but Green Bay did reasonably well in these trade talks. The Jets still made a 2023 first-round pick — though not the one they wanted to make, by almost every account — but even after Gutekunst said a trade not involving a ’23 first could happen, the Pack still made out with a first-rounder in this momentous swap.

Had the Packers shipped Rodgers to Denver two years ago, they would have obtained more compared to what they received this year. Rodgers was 37 then and coming off MVP No. 3. But Green Bay clearly had not seen enough from Love at that point. By 2022, Love’s career plunged into rare territory, as the unprecedented — since the 2011 CBA reshaped rookie contracts, that is — modern QB heir apparent to finish a third season as a backup. But the Packers viewed Love, who underwhelmed in his lone start of consequence (a short-notice Arrowhead Stadium cameo after Rodgers’ COVID-19 contraction in November 2021) as having made steady progress last year. Despite Love being the team’s preferred 2023 starter, the Packers managed to collect a second-round pick and swap first-rounders. Barring a notable Rodgers injury, they are likely to land the Jets’ 2024 first.

The Jets’ 2024 first will transfer to the Packers if Rodgers plays 65% of Gang Green’s offensive snaps. Since Rodgers took the reins from Favre in 2008, he crossed that threshold 13 times. Only injury-abbreviated 2013 and 2017 seasons featured the increasingly outspoken icon falling short. If Rodgers reaches that mark for the Jets, the Packers will enter a draft with two first-round picks for the third time in six years.

In 2008, the Jets and Packers placed conditions on how far Favre led that ’08 Gang Green iteration. Favre’s biceps injury burned the Jets in that trade, and the non-playoff-bound ’08 team’s 9-7 finish led to only a third-rounder coming Green Bay’s way. This time, Gutekunst and Joe Douglas tethered the pick to Rodgers’ playing time. And the Packers also escaped these talks without anything tied to Rodgers’ 2024 status. Rumors of the Pack sending a 2025 draft choice to the Jets — in the event Rodgers retired after one New York season — emerged, and the teams discussed this option. But no such terms made the trade’s final cut.

Rodgers told Pat McAfee Show listeners he was 90% retired going into his darkness retreat. While that could certainly spook Jets fans, the 19th-year veteran showed up for OTAs after passing on them during his final two Green Bay years. Rodgers attempted to downplay his 2022 workout absence’s connection to a substandard season, but after failed Adams extension talks led to a trade, the aging passer ranked 26th in QBR with a career-worst (by a substantial margin) 39.3 figure. Rodgers’ yards-per-attempt number checked in at 6.8 — his lowest since the 2015 Jordy Nelson-less season — and his 12 interceptions were the second-most he has thrown in a season. The Jets are betting the Packers’ situation led to that regression, while Green Bay cut bait after the MVP form faded.

The all-time QB talent leaves Green Bay with 10 Pro Bowls, a Super Bowl ring and five NFC championship game appearances. Even with Rodgers submitting countless memorable moments and some of the greatest throws in playoff history, his postseason resume figures to be discussed for decades. The Packers’ issues on defense and conservative approach in free agency during much of Rodgers’ career worked against their cornerstone player, but while the team famously avoided drafting a first-round wide receiver or tight end during this span, the Love pick led to Rodgers reigniting after down years in 2018 and ’19. As Rodgers will aim to prove the Packers wrong for ending his starter tenure, Green Bay will now see if trading up for a Utah State quarterback was the right call.

Free agency additions:

Simone Biles’ sudden Green Bay ties, via husband Owens’ signing, probably serves as the most memorable component associated with the Packers’ free agency class. The team did add some safety depth during free agency, picking up multiple options ahead of a layered competition. The winner of the Owens-Moore-Rudy Ford position battle will be positioned, barring a late-summer addition, to start alongside Darnell Savage.

A former third-round 49ers pick, Moore has 13 starts on his resume and intercepted Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl LIV. Moore also missed all of 2021, seeing his contract year toll to 2022, due to injury. He of a 4.32-second 40-yard dash clocking, Moore played both cornerback and safety in San Francisco. A Division II success story out of Missouri Western, Owens started 17 Texans games last season. This did not generate the former UDFA much of a market; Pro Football Focus rated Owens and Savage as two of the NFL’s three worst regular safeties last season.

Re-signings:

Incentives can max out Nixon’s deal at $6MM, and void years — the NFL’s financial workaround of the moment — are present in the contract. Playing-time benchmarks start at the 45% threshold, and Nixon reaching 55% of the Packers’ defensive snaps will earn him a total of $750K. Two- and four-interception escalators at the same $250K rates are here as well, and given the role the Packers will give him a chance to earn, these numbers should not be considered farfetched.

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The NFL’s Longest-Tenured Head Coaches

July 4th, 2023 at 12:48pm CST by Sam Robinson

After the 2022 offseason produced 10 new head coaches, this one brought a step back in terms of turnover. Five teams changed HCs, though each conducted thorough searches — four of them lasting until at least January 31.

The Colts and Cardinals hired their HCs after Super Bowl LVII, plucking the Eagles’ offensive and defensive coordinators (Shane Steichen, Jonathan Gannon). The Cardinals were hit with a tampering penalty regarding their Gannon search. Conducting their second HC search in two years, the Broncos saw multiple candidates drop out of the running. But Denver’s new ownership group convinced Sean Payton to step out of the FOX studio and back onto the sidelines after just one season away. The Panthers made this year’s first hire (Frank Reich), while the Texans — running their third HC search in three years — finalized an agreement with DeMeco Ryans minutes after the Payton news broke.

Only one of last year’s top 10 longest-tenured HCs lost his job. A turbulent Colts year led to Reich being fired barely a year after he signed an extension. During a rather eventful stretch, Jim Irsay said he reluctantly extended Reich in 2021. The Colts passed on giving interim HC Jeff Saturday the full-time position, despite Irsay previously indicating he hoped the former center would transition to that role. Reich landed on his feet, and after losing Andrew Luck to a shocking retirement just before his second Colts season, the well-regarded play-caller now has another No. 1 pick (Bryce Young) to mentor.

After considering a Rams exit, Sean McVay recommitted to the team and is overseeing a reshaped roster. Andy Reid also sidestepped retirement rumors, staying on with the Chiefs after his second Super Bowl win. This will be Reid’s 25th season as an NFL head coach.

Here is how the 32 HC jobs look for the 2023 season:

  1. Bill Belichick (New England Patriots): January 27, 2000
  2. Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh Steelers): January 27, 2007; extended through 2024
  3. John Harbaugh (Baltimore Ravens): January 19, 2008; extended through 2025
  4. Pete Carroll (Seattle Seahawks): January 9, 2010; extended through 2025
  5. Andy Reid (Kansas City Chiefs): January 4, 2013; extended through 2025
  6. Sean McDermott (Buffalo Bills): January 11, 2017; extended through 2027
  7. Sean McVay (Los Angeles Rams): January 12, 2017; extended through 2023
  8. Kyle Shanahan (San Francisco 49ers): February 6, 2017; extended through 2025
  9. Mike Vrabel (Tennessee Titans): January 20, 2018; signed extension in February 2022
  10. Matt LaFleur (Green Bay Packers): January 8, 2019: signed extension in July 2022
  11. Zac Taylor (Cincinnati Bengals): February 4, 2019; extended through 2026
  12. Ron Rivera (Washington Commanders): January 1, 2020
  13. Mike McCarthy (Dallas Cowboys): January 7, 2020
  14. Kevin Stefanski (Cleveland Browns): January 13, 2020
  15. Robert Saleh (New York Jets): January 15, 2021
  16. Arthur Smith (Atlanta Falcons): January 15, 2021
  17. Brandon Staley (Los Angeles Chargers): January 17, 2021
  18. Dan Campbell (Detroit Lions): January 20, 2021
  19. Nick Sirianni (Philadelphia Eagles): January 21, 2021
  20. Matt Eberflus (Chicago Bears): January 27, 2022
  21. Brian Daboll (New York Giants): January 28, 2022
  22. Josh McDaniels (Las Vegas Raiders): January 30, 2022
  23. Kevin O’Connell (Minnesota Vikings): February 2, 2022
  24. Doug Pederson (Jacksonville Jaguars): February 3, 2022
  25. Mike McDaniel (Miami Dolphins): February 6, 2022
  26. Dennis Allen (New Orleans Saints): February 7, 2022
  27. Todd Bowles (Tampa Bay Buccaneers): March 30, 2022
  28. Frank Reich (Carolina Panthers): January 26, 2023
  29. Sean Payton (Denver Broncos): January 31, 2023
  30. DeMeco Ryans (Houston Texans): January 31, 2023
  31. Shane Steichen (Indianapolis Colts): February 14, 2023
  32. Jonathan Gannon (Arizona Cardinals): February 14, 2023

PFR Originals: Broncos, Bills, Queen, Fulton

July 4th, 2023 at 11:14am CST by Sam Robinson

Here are the recent originals produced by the PFR staff:

  • We kicked off our 2023 Offseason In Review series with the Broncos, who took a big swing by trading for Sean Payton — after the 2022 Nathaniel Hackett hire led to a wildly disappointing season. Payton made major moves along the offensive line, and ex-Broncos HC Vance Joseph is back in Denver as defensive coordinator. But the season will center on whether Russell Wilson has truly run into a steep decline or if a host of other factors led to his struggles last year.
  • The Titans passed on extending Adoree’ Jackson, and fellow first-round cornerback Caleb Farley has not shown much yet. The team has seen ex-second-rounder Kristian Fulton make progress, and Adam La Rose looked into his extension candidacy. Fulton is aiming for a new Tennessee deal.
  • Staying on the extension front, I discussed the Jaguars-Evan Engram situation ahead of the July 17 franchise tag deadline. Engram joins three running backs (Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard) as tagged players this year, after Lamar Jackson and Daron Payne inked extensions. A former Giants first-rounder, Engram is coming off a season in which he set the Jaguars’ single-season tight end receiving yardage record with 766.
  • The Ravens look to have made their intentions with Patrick Queen clear, giving Roquan Smith a record-setting ILB deal and drafting Clemson’s Trenton Simpson in Round 3. Through that lens, Ely Allen discussed the prospect of Baltimore fetching trade compensation for Queen. The Ravens breaking up their dynamic ILB pair would surprise, but with Smith bringing a nice haul for the Bears in his contract year, would Baltimore listen to offers for a player unlikely to be in its long-term plans?
  • Aaron Rodgers and Jalen Ramsey are now in the AFC East, providing plenty of buzz for the Jets and Dolphins. But the Bills have won the AFC East three years running. In PFR’s latest poll, readers are not yet convinced Miami, New York or New England will overtake Buffalo in this division.

Poll: Who Will Win AFC East?

July 3rd, 2023 at 10:32pm CST by Sam Robinson

Offseason additions will make the AFC East perhaps the league’s most captivating divisional race. The Bills have won this division three years running, recovering from a 17-year playoff drought by advancing to five postseasons in six years of the Sean McDermott–Brandon Beane era. But the Jets and Dolphins took big swings to narrow the gap. And the Patriots present an annually high floor, having the most accomplished HC (by a rather wide margin) in the division.

Buffalo did not exactly stand pat this offseason, prioritizing a first-round trade-up for Utah tight end Dalton Kincaid. This year’s top tight end draftee is expected to play a regular role as a slot performer for the Bills, who will have Stefon Diggs (assuming he is on the same page with the organization), Gabe Davis and Dawson Knox back. Buffalo also beefed up its offensive line, signing Connor McGovern — to give the division both Connor McGoverns — to go with second-round guard O’Cyrus Torrence. Signed to a low-cost deal, ex-Rams starter David Edwards also has extensive starting experience. The Bills also added former Patriots starter Damien Harris, he of 15 rushing touchdowns in 2021, to just a one-year deal worth $1.77MM.

Defensively, the Bills’ top addition came via the June Leonard Floyd signing. Buffalo guaranteed the ex-Von Miller Los Angeles teammate $7MM to both help the team while Miller recovers from his second ACL tear — if the future Hall of Famer needs regular-season recovery time like Tre’Davious White did last year — and provide a high-end complementary edge presence to help Miller and a young edge-rushing crew. Floyd has racked up 29 sacks over the past three seasons.

Last year’s second-place finishers took aim at the Bills by adding two major defensive pieces. Miami made Vic Fangio the league’s highest-paid defensive coordinator, hiring the ex-Denver HC for more than $4.5MM per year to work with Mike McDaniel. DVOA rated the Dolphins’ defense 15th last season; the team now has Jalen Ramsey in place opposite Xavien Howard. The Dolphins pried Ramsey from the suddenly cost-conscious Rams for only a third-round pick and tight end Hunter Long, though it took a contract adjustment as well. Ramsey earned first-team All-Pro honors in two of his three full seasons with the Rams.

The Dolphins let Mike Gesicki walk and have not made a notable tight end addition, and they re-signed their top three running backs from last season. In addition to re-upping Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson, the Dolphins drafted Devon Achane in Round 3. They are also believed to be the clubhouse leaders to add Dalvin Cook as a hired gun of sorts. Cook is a Miami native who has mentioned the Dolphins as a “perfect fit.”

Most discussions of this division’s outlook will begin with the Jets’ top addition. It took far more than the Brett Favre trade required, but Gang Green landed Aaron Rodgers. It cost the team a first-round pick swap and a second-round choice this year, and the Packers will likely — barring injury — obtain the Jets’ 2024 first-rounder. But the upgrade the Jets will make in going from Zach Wilson to Rodgers is difficult to overstate. The four-time MVP attended the Jets’ OTA sessions, after skipping the Packers’ voluntary workouts in 2021 and ’22, and brought ex-Packers Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb and tackle Billy Turner with him. The Jets are gambling that Nathaniel Hackett can shake off a woeful stay as the Broncos’ play-caller, and the team does have big questions at tackle, with both Duane Brown and Mekhi Becton coming off injuries.

Another ex-Packer, Adrian Amos, arrived in town to help the Jets cover for one of their other additions, Chuck Clark, tearing an ACL. First-round defensive end Will McDonald — believed to be, by most, an emergency option after the Steelers took Broderick Jones — also led off the Jets’ draft. Not many holes existed for Robert Saleh‘s vastly improved defense.

An assistant hire profiles as the Patriots’ top move. After a strange effort to give defensive coach Matt Patricia offensive play-calling duties predictably backfired, the Pats rehired Bill O’Brien as OC. The former Texans HC already has the offense headed in a better direction, and he is believed to be on the same page with free agent target DeAndre Hopkins despite pulling the trigger on the 2020 Houston-Arizona trade. The Pats also gave Mac Jones a weapon in J.J. Smith-Schuster, the Chiefs’ top 2022 wideout who will be tasked with replacing Jakobi Meyers.

The Patriots have failed to form a top-11 scoring defense exactly once in the past 15 years, and Bill Belichick‘s unit now has first- and second-round picks Christian Gonzalez and Keion White. The team re-signed Jonathan Jones and is prepared to move the secondary staple back inside, but a big question mark now looms with emerging boundary defender Jack Jones, who faces potential prison time for gun charges.

Have the Jets and Dolphins done enough to topple the Bills? Are the Patriots — a 2021 playoff team that took a big step back on offense under Patricia and Joe Judge — being slept on? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on this division in the comments section.

Extension Candidate: Kristian Fulton

July 3rd, 2023 at 10:38am CST by Adam La Rose

Kristian Fulton has emerged as a key member of the Titans’ secondary, a unit which the team has made considerable investments in over the course of recent years. He is now approaching the final season of his rookie contract.

Fulton, a 2020 second-round pick, is “hoping for a new deal,” writes Joe Rexrode of The Athletic (subscription required). A long-term commitment from Tennessee would come as little surprise considering the level of play he has delivered when on the field during the past two seasons in particular, though the frequency with which that is not the case could be a concern.

As a rookie, Fulton logged a 49% snap share but his campaign was limited to just six games due to a knee injury. His availability was better the following season when he served as a full-time starter for all 13 of his appearances. During that span, he recorded a pair of interceptions and 14 pass deflections. His coverage statistics (51% completion percentage and 71.3 passer rating allowed) also pointed to a promising future and raised expectations for him heading into 2022.

In the build-up to that year, Tennessee had a number of options to choose from in terms of the starting CB spot opposite Fulton. The LSU product was once again counted on as an anchor of the secondary, though, starting all 11 games he played in. Fulton was again sidelined by injury, however, which contributed to a step back in his ball production (one interception, five pass breakups). In all, he has missed 20 games over the course of his career, a figure which will no doubt hurt his value on a new deal, particularly one signed before the onset of the coming season.

The Titans have a number of young corners on the books, including Fulton but also 2021 first-rounder Caleb Farley (who has only played 12 games to date), 2021 third-rounder Elijah Molden (who missed all but two contests last season) and 2022 second-round selection Roger McCreary. The latter enjoyed a highly productive rookie campaign in which he was a full-time starter and stayed on the field for all 17 games. Tennessee also brought in another first-team option during free agency by signing Sean Murphy-Bunting on a one-year deal.

Nevertheless, Fulton will be counted on as a key performer for at least one more season. A return to health in his case – and that of the Titans’ secondary as a whole – would go a long way in determining the team’s success on defense, a unit which will likely need to perform at a high level given the question marks surrounding their offense. A strong showing from Fulton would also boost his value heading into free agency next March, or Titans extension negotiations conducted before that point.

Tennessee is limited with respect to available funds at the moment, and much of their remaining cap space would be used up by any hypothetical deal for DeAndre Hopkins. Fulton’s 2023 cap hit is just under $1.7MM, so a new deal would not clear up any significant money for the remainder of the summer. However, the Titans are currently projected to have the fourth-most spending power in 2024, so they would certainly be able to absorb a significant raise for Fulton on a new contract if his desire for one were to be reciprocated.

Offseason In Review: Denver Broncos

July 2nd, 2023 at 10:01pm CST by Sam Robinson

While last season marked the Broncos’ sixth straight sub-.500 campaign, it was easily the most memorable letdown for the franchise during its post-Super Bowl 50 swoon. Denver’s attempt to pair blockbuster trade acquisition Russell Wilson and first-time head coach Nathaniel Hackett backfired spectacularly, with the latter joining Urban Meyer (2021) and Pete McCulley (49ers, 1978) as the only NFL head coaches to be fired before their first season ended. Hackett’s managerial struggles were noticeable early, and they played a role in Wilson slogging through a disastrous 11th season. As a result, the franchise is resetting once again.

The Broncos will attempt to pick up the pieces, putting Sean Payton behind the wheel. Despite the team’s descent to the NFL’s basement offensively, most of the starters from a top-10 DVOA defense remain in place. So do the wide receivers the Broncos have retained as they cycled through quarterbacks and play-callers over the past few years. Expectations are lower for the 2023 Broncos, given Wilson’s concerning 2022, but this looks like bounce-back candidate.

Trades:

Denver’s fourth coaching search since Super Bowl 50 ended with the franchise reeling in the biggest fish in its history. While Mike Shanahan put together a Hall of Fame-caliber résumé during his 14-year Denver HC tenure, Payton certainly brought a higher profile as a candidate. The 15-year Saints coach — responsible for nine of the franchise’s 10 postseason wins — brings a Super Bowl ring and a reputation as one of the game’s premier offensive minds. The Broncos have now hired back-to-back offensive coaches; Payton will double as a restorer-in-chief given the circumstances here.

Although the Broncos appeared ready to offer DeMeco Ryans their HC gig, Payton hovered on the radar from the start of the franchise’s search. The Rob Walton-led ownership group, which bought the team after the Hackett hire, conducted a search that had stalled by late January. Ryans preferred Houston, while Dan Quinn — a Broncos finalist in 2022 — bowed out. Interviewing for an NFL job for a second straight offseason, Jim Harbaugh stayed at Michigan. Harbaugh loomed as a 1-B option behind Payton, but as the latter interviewed for the Texans, Cardinals and Panthers’ positions, Broncos CEO Greg Penner flew to Ann Arbor for a second Harbaugh meeting. Just as Denver’s HC search teetered on collapse, this ownership group’s first such effort produced a well-received ending.

Payton, 59, held the leverage of spending a second year at FOX. Connected to interest in the Chargers and Cowboys’ jobs last year, the recent TV analyst could have waited for one of those to open up in 2024. (Then again, he seemed prepared to coach Tom Brady in 2022, leading to the Dolphins tampering punishment.) The Broncos needed to convince Payton to make his move in 2023, and doing so likely means a top-market coaching salary. Seeing as there is no coaching salary cap, the NFL’s wealthiest owner was presumably unconcerned about Payton’s financial price tag. But the Broncos also needed to part with major draft compensation for Payton, completing the biggest HC trade since the Buccaneers sent the Raiders two first-round picks and two seconds for Jon Gruden in 2002.

The Broncos’ decision to deal Bradley Chubb to the Dolphins at last year’s deadline proved crucial for Payton ammunition, as Denver sent the Miami-obtained pick to New Orleans as the centerpiece of the swap for the accomplished HC’s rights. The teams also exchanged 2024 Day 2 picks. From March 2022 to January 2023, the Broncos traded three first-round picks to secure a Wilson-Payton foundation. After untested candidates in Hackett and Vance Joseph sandwiched acclaimed defensive boss Vic Fangio, who was given three primary QB1s in three years, the Broncos probably needed to swing big.

Drew Brees morphed from inconsistent Charger to the league’s all-time passing kingpin under Payton, who elevated the Saints to the NFC championship game in his first season (2006), piloted them to a Super Bowl XLIV win and was a historically controversial pass interference non-call from coaching in Super Bowl LIII. Payton harnessed Brees’ talents, but the ex-San Diego draftee’s deadly accuracy drove the Saints’ offense for 15 years. Payton will be in charge of restoring Wilson, who once named the Saints as an acceptable 2021 trade destination before reportedly attempting to bring the coach to Seattle last year.

Under Hackett, Wilson was given significant input in the design of Denver’s offense. Wilson’s attempt to operate as a Brees-like pocket passer crash-landed, leading to relentless criticism of the perennial Pro Bowl QB. If Wilson is unable to rebound at 34 under Payton, his future in Denver — and perhaps his Hall of Fame status, which once seemed a safe bet after two Super Bowl starts and six original-ballot Pro Bowl nods — could potentially be in doubt. Even if Wilson may still have a good chance of reaching Canton regardless of his Denver tenure, a semblance of doubt creeping in creates a fascinating high-stakes backdrop for the Broncos’ 2023 season.

Wilson’s effort to shake off a career-worst QBR (36.7 — 27th) and completion percentage (60.5) figures will go a long way toward solidifying his future and the post-2023 Colorado future of GM George Paton. Hired during the Broncos’ period without a true owner, Paton has hit on some decisions — most notably the Patrick Surtain II pick during what looks like a fruitful 2021 draft for the team — but has now lost power after the Hackett and Wilson calls. While the Broncos’ Payton-Paton partnership (which should produce some good sentence challenges while it lasts) is a go for 2023, it is not hard to foresee the new HC bringing in one of his former Saints allies if Wilson has truly seen his prime conclude.

Free agency additions:

Injuries up front tossed another piece of debris onto the Broncos’ path last season, and the team has made an annual ritual of changing right tackles. In the early hours of the legal tampering period, the Broncos paid up to solve this decade-long problem. McGlinchey, 28, is slated to become Denver’s 11th Week 1 right tackle starter in 11 years. After the Broncos skimped at the position in 2022, via low-cost deals for Billy Turner and Tom Compton, Payton greenlit a top-five right tackle contract that reminded of the deal he OK’d for Ryan Ramczyk in New Orleans. Four years after the Broncos’ 2019 Ja’Wuan James investment bombed, they will bet on another ex-first-rounder at this position.

The 49ers used McGlinchey as a five-year right tackle starter. While not viewed as an elite pass protector, McGlinchey aided Kyle Shanahan‘s offense in the run game. He wrapped his rookie-contract San Francisco run by ranking fifth in ESPN’s run block win rate among all tackles. After Turner missed half of last season and Compton was healthy for all of one game, the Broncos saw their O-line depth issues — compounded by Garett Bolles‘ Week 5 leg fracture — lead to Wilson taking a league-high 55 sacks. To help prevent a recurrence, the Broncos gave McGlinchey a contract that includes a practical guarantee of $52.5MM (via his 2025 base salary locking in by March 2024). This helped push the Bears to drop out of the pursuit.

Dating back to the Jahri Evans–Carl Nicks tandem, Payton has placed a premium on interior protection. This carried through to the Saints’ Andrus Peat–Erik McCoy–Cesar Ruiz trio. The Broncos have not seen Lloyd Cushenberry become an above-average center, but the team is well stocked at guard after prying Powers from the Ravens. Powers, 26, brings an interesting profile; he was battling for a starting job as recently as last year. Powers won Baltimore’s left guard job and parlayed that into a $13MM-per-year contract. ESPN’s pass block win rate metric ranked Powers in the top 10 at guard last year. Set to replace four-year starter Dalton Risner, Powers will pair with 2021 third-rounder Quinn Meinerz — a top-10 guard in 2022, per Pro Football Focus — to form a promising tandem.

Although the Payton-Paton power structure wanted to retain Dre’Mont Jones, one of new DC Vance Joseph‘s Cardinals charges will step in to replace him at a slightly lower rate. A 3-4 defensive end alongside J.J. Watt in Arizona, Allen led all D-linemen with eight pass deflections last season. Allen, who finished last season with career-high marks in sacks (5.5) and quarterback hits (20), spent each of his four Cardinals seasons in Joseph’s system. The 26-year-old D-lineman will team with 2022 free agency pickup D.J. Jones in Joseph’s 3-4 scheme. In McGlinchey, Allen and Powers, the Broncos signed three of PFR’s top 19 free agents.

In landing Perine during the tampering period, the Broncos took an unexpected route at running back. Despite the likes of Devin Singletary, Damien Harris and Kareem Hunt remaining on the board, the Broncos brought in Joe Mixon‘s longtime backup. Perine performed well in relief of Mixon over the past two years, and even with the ex-Mixon Oklahoma sidekick (and owner of a still-standing Division I-FBS single-game rushing record) heading into his age-28 season, he has taken just 401 handoffs over a six-year career. As teams shy away from late-20s running backs, the Broncos will bet on one that should have some notable mileage left.

The Perine addition may be impeding the Broncos re: Dalvin Cook, though the team is tentatively expecting starter Javonte Williams — who tore his ACL and LCL in Week 4 — to return by its regular-season opener. Payton’s Pierre Thomas–Reggie Bush/Alvin Kamara–Mark Ingram backfields point to Perine seeing extensive run. Perine last totaled more than 100 carries in a season in 2017.

At this point last year, the Broncos looked set to deploy a deep edge-rushing corps. But the team’s $14MM-per-year Randy Gregory investment took on some water after his early-season knee injury. After trading Malik Reed, the Broncos later dealt Chubb to the Dolphins. With Gregory coming off another injury-limited season and converted inside linebacker Baron Browning set to miss training camp time due to a summer knee surgery, Clark will be asked to step in.

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