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Extension Candidate: Trey Smith

October 10th, 2024 at 9:24am CST by Sam Robinson

Bye weeks are known to bring increased attention to extension talks, and the Chiefs enter theirs with multiple candidates on the radar. Weeks after extending Creed Humphrey at a center-record rate, Kansas City remains interested in paying its right guard as well.

Trey Smith is on an expiring contract, and this year’s guard market — along with an NFL resume that includes steady play despite a sixth-round entrance — points to the fourth-year blocker being close to joining an exclusive club. The Chiefs would have loved to pay Smith shortly after they gave Humphrey a four-year, $72MM extension, but ESPN.com’s Jeremy Fowler notes the team viewed locking down both as “far too costly.” As it stands, Fowler adds Smith is on track for a deal that will be worth $20MM per year or beyond that point.

A fourth-year starter, Smith emerged as an extension candidate early in training camp. The Chiefs then paid Humphrey at a rate well north of where the center market previously stood. But top guards command more than the best centers. It is safe to say Smith’s second contract, barring a significant injury, will be costlier than Humphrey’s. This introduces a champagne problem of sorts for the two-time reigning champions, who have continued to view Smith as a keeper.

Four guards currently comprise the $20MM-per-year club. Landon Dickerson leads the way at $21MM AAV, while Chris Lindstrom ($20.5MM), Quenton Nelson ($20MM) and Robert Hunt ($20MM) secured these elusive terms as well. As the salary cap continues to rise, it stands to reason this group will expand soon. At 25, Smith is a prime candidate to join the group.

Reaching the market will be his best chance to do so, but the Chiefs’ Humphrey, Joe Thuney and Jawaan Taylor payments illustrate a commitment to paying top-market money for O-line aid. The Chiefs’ 2021 O-line overhaul, after the Buccaneers teed off on Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl LV, has played a central role in the franchise’s threepeat push.

Commandeering a starting job from the jump despite a blood clot issue dropping him to Round 6 in 2021, Smith has overcome that to start every game he has played with the Chiefs. Having missed only one career game, Smith is building a strong resume toward being a top-flight 2025 free agent. No Pro Bowl invites have come Smith’s way yet; that may well change this season. Pro Football Focus ranks him as the NFL’s fourth-best guard, with he and Thuney each placed in the top five through five games. ESPN’s run block win rate metric places Smith fourth, and the Tennessee alum ranked fourth in pass block win rate among interior O-linemen last season.

Thuney is tied to a five-year, $80MM deal, one that has paid out its guarantees and expires after the 2025 season. With Humphrey paid and Taylor’s 2025 salary guaranteed, the Chiefs may end up with a Thuney-or-Smith decision for next season. Guards are almost never franchise-tagged, due to all O-linemen being grouped together under the tag formula, but Smith stands to be a candidate. Though, the Chiefs, who sit in the bottom 10 in projected 2025 cap space ($27MM-plus), will need to make some adjustments before considering such a move.

Nick Bolton also looms as a Kansas City extension candidate, as the 2021 draft helped form the core of a roster still anchored by John Dorsey-era draftees (Mahomes, Chris Jones, Travis Kelce). Brett Veach‘s top draft to date, however, has seen its lead cogs become quite expensive, as the Humphrey pact showed. Smith will also be more expensive than Bolton to retain, as the ILB market has taken some hits in recent years.

The Chiefs have been able to annually create cap space thanks to Mahomes’ 10-year extension, going to this well three times since the megastar QB signed his deal in 2020. This figures to be an avenue the team explores again, especially as Smith continues to build momentum toward a potential free agency foray.

With Hunt securing $20MM per year on the open market despite zero Pro Bowl nods on his resume, Smith has a path to topping that. The Chiefs hold exclusive negotiating rights with their Day 3 find until March’s legal tampering period. It will be interesting to see what steps they take to make sure he and Humphrey stay together long term.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Sam Darnold

October 5th, 2024 at 8:15pm CST by Adam La Rose

The Vikings are the NFC’s only remaining undefeated team, and their play on offense has been a key factor in that early-season success. Specifically, the performance of quarterback Sam Darnold has raised eyebrows given how he was expected to perform in 2024.

Selected third overall in 2018 – after the Jets traded up from the No. 6 slot – Darnold faced the task of becoming a franchise passer. That has proven to be the case for Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson (selected later in the first round that year), but he was unable to develop into a long-term answer under center in New York. The USC product was immediately used in a first-team role but compiled a 13-25 record while completing less than 60% of his passes in the process.

The Jets elected to reset at quarterback in 2021, the year they selected Zach Wilson to start what turned out to be another unsuccessful run at finding a solution at the QB spot. Darnold was dealt to the Panthers for a package of three draft picks, including a second-rounder the following year. That agreement showed he still had some value, albeit far less than what New York originally invested in him. Darnold’s first Panthers season resulted in another losing record along with a 9:13 touchdown-to-interception ratio, however.

Baker Mayfield was added during the subsequent offseason, and 2018’s top selection handled starting duties to begin the 2022 campaign. One week before Mayfield’s release request was granted, though, Darnold took back over as the Panthers’ starter. Carolina won four of six games down the stretch with the latter posting a triple-digit passer rating four times. The team was committed to a more permanent solution than Darnold, a pending free agent, though. Carolina therefore embarked on the blockbuster deal which yielded the No. 1 pick (Bryce Young), something which – to put it mildly – has not gone according to plan so far.

Darnold took a one-year deal in 2023 to serve as the 49ers’ backup. Brock Purdy remained healthy throughout the season, though, so Darnold’s only start game in a meaningless Week 18 contest. His San Francisco tenure did not include eye-popping statistics, but it was sufficient to draw interest from the Broncos and Commanders before a Vikings pact was worked out. The one-year agreement carried a $10MM value, second only to Gardner Minshew in terms of pacts for signal-callers taking backup/bridge starter pacts.

First-round rookie J.J. McCarthy entered training camp behind Darnold on the depth chart, putting the latter on track to handle first-team duties early in the 2024 season. McCarthy’s meniscus tear shut him down for the campaign, however, leaving Darnold in place to guide an offense no longer led by Kirk Cousins. Through one month, things have gone very well without Pro Bowl tight end T.J. Hockenson even being in the picture.

Darnold leads the league in touchdown passes (11), yards per attempt (9.6) and passer rating (118.9) early in the campaign. Those figures – along with a career-high 68.9 completion percentage – helped him earn the NFC’s Offensive Player of the Month award for September. If that run of form can continue, a healthy free agent spell will be in store next offseason.

Multiple front office personnel predicted to Outkick’s Armando Salguero the Vikings will make a push to retain Darnold in 2025 despite McCarthy being attached to his rookie contract for the foreseeable future. Minnesota’s offense continuing to thrive would assist Darnold’s bargaining power considerably (not to mention help head coach Kevin O’Connell’s chances of landing an extension alongside general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah). A strong showing could prove Darnold to be the league’s next Mayfield – that is, a passer turning a one-year gig into a multi-year commitment from his team. Mayfield seemed to be on track for free agency before he agreed to a three-year, $100MM Buccaneers pact (including $40MM guaranteed) this past March.

Given his age, Darnold could command a similar deal provided his encouraging performance holds up over the coming months. McCarthy’s presence would complicate considerations on the Vikings’ part with respect to a deal covering 2025 and (quite possibly) multiple years after that for Darnold, but as always a number of teams will be in the market for a veteran passer in free agency. Any which do not figure to have a high first-round draft pick could make a notable push on a multi-year offer.

The executives Salguero spoke with agreed an asking price from Darnold’s camp breaching the $50MM-per-year mark (as nine recent QB deals have) would be untenable. An AAV closer to the high $30MM- or low $40MM-point may be on the table, though, depending on structure and guarantees of course. Especially if Justin Fields lands a new Steelers agreement – something which certainly seems feasible at this point – Darnold would loom as the clear top free agent option amongst veteran passers for Minnesota or any number of other teams.

A regression over the coming games would not leave Darnold in danger of losing his starting spot but it would obviously hinder his market value. As things currently stand, however, he is on track to benefit greatly from his mid-career turnaround.

Exploring Panthers’ 2025 QB Options

September 22nd, 2024 at 9:03pm CST by Adam La Rose

Cam Newton’s last full campaign as the Panthers’ starting quarterback came in 2017. Since that time, Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke, Will Grier, Teddy Bridgewater and P.J. Walker have seen sparse time at the helm of the team’s offense.

The same is also true of Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield, both of whom were acquired with the potential to serve as a long-term Newton successor. The latter has since found success in Tampa Bay, while the former could set himself up for a strong free agent market after his Minnesota campaign. Bryce Young was acquired as Carolina aimed to end the QB carousel, paying a massive price in the process. To date, that move has backfired.

The 2023 first overall pick has been benched in favor of veteran Andy Dalton. First-year head coach Dave Canales offered support of Young in the wake of the team’s Week 2 loss, Carolina’s latest underwhelming offensive outing. One day later, though, a review of the game in addition with conversations with other members of the organization resulted in Young’s benching. No timeline for a reversal of the depth chart is in place, but the 23-year-old may see the field again in 2024.

Young did not expect to be benched, and the former Heisman winner is reportedly open to anything with respect to his future. That could include a trade sending him to a new team. The Panthers are not currently willing to take that route, although to little surprise teams have begun to show interest. Any swap would yield a return nowhere near the price paid to acquire Young (two first-round picks, two second-rounders and receiver D.J. Moore).

While the Alabama product will likely remain in place through the remainder of the season (and quite possibly beyond that point), the Panthers will no doubt bring in competition for the starter’s role this spring. A number of veterans are projected to be available, and a high draft pick for April’s draft is a distinct possibility as things stand. The team should therefore have a number of options to choose from.

Free agents:

Dalton joined the Panthers on a two-year deal last offseason, and he now has the opportunity to boost his value with an extended look atop the depth chart. The 36-year-old’s tenure as the Bengals’ starter ended in 2019, and he followed that up with single campaigns in Dallas, Chicago and New Orleans. He made nine starts in place of an injured Dak Prescott in 2020, and similarly filled in for Jameis Winston midway through the 2022 campaign. Even when Winston was healthy, though, the Saints stuck with Dalton to close out the season.

After only making one start in 2023, Dalton now finds himself in position to stabilize Carolina’s offense as he did with New Orleans two years ago. Succeeding in that respect could result in a new Panthers accord or increased interest on the open market in March. Canales’ head coaching stock was built on his work with other veteran passers, and it will be interesting to see how he fares with Dalton over the coming weeks after he was primarily brought in to develop Young.

Darnold was acquired via trade in 2021 after he failed to establish himself as a long-term answer under center with the Jets. The former No. 3 pick started all but one of his 18 Panthers games, taking over from Mayfield to finish the 2022 slate after he was granted his request to be released. Darnold, 27, spent last season in a developmental capacity with the 49ers and took a one-year Vikings contract to operate as a bridge starter.

First-round rookie J.J. McCarthy’s season-ending knee injury has left Darnold without competition for 2024, though. An impressive season in Minnesota would make the USC product one of the top signal-callers available in March and give the Panthers a number of other suitors to bid against if a reunion were to be considered. A different regime is in place compared to the one which originally brought him to Charlotte, and a repeat of that endeavor from Canales and new GM Dan Morgan in 2025 would make for an intriguing storyline.

The underwhelming 2021 QB class figures to offer a number of buy-low options. Top pick Trevor Lawrence is attached to a long-term Jags extension, but the passers selected second (Zach Wilson), third (Trey Lance) and 15th (Mac Jones) that year are all on their second NFL teams. No member of that trio is in a starting position at the moment, and a path to signficant playing time down the road does not exist. A prove-it contract with the Panthers could offer another change of scenery and the chance to at least compete for the QB1 gig with Young, provided he does remain in the team’s plans.

Justin Fields is another 2021 draftee whose career has not gone as planned. He has started three straight games with the Steelers to begin the campaign, though, and he could play his way into a Pittsburgh contract keeping him in place for years to come. The same could be true for veteran Russell Wilson, signed shortly after his Broncos release to operate as the Steelers’ starter. Plenty is yet to be determined regarding Pittsburgh’s quarterback outlook, but it would come as a surprise if both Wilson and Fields were to be retained. At least one could therefore be available for Carolina in the spring.

Drew Lock took a one-year deal to serve as the Giants’ backup, although struggles on the part of Daniel Jones could allow him to see the field in 2024. Lock underwhelmed during his time in Denver, and Geno Smith’s recent Seattle success prevented him from seeing a run of first-team action. Carolina could offer him a new chance for a QB1 gig; at a minimum, a Panthers deal would mark a reunion between Lock and Canales after their single season together with the Seahawks.

Like every year, 2025 is projected to have a number of veteran journeymen on the market. The likes of Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett will be an option if the Panthers elect to add a stopgap under center. Such a move would no doubt be accompanied by once again adding a rookie viewed as having the upside to serve as a franchise signal-caller.

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Poll: Which 0-2 Team Has Best Chance To Make Playoffs?

September 18th, 2024 at 10:10pm CST by Nikhil Mehta

Nine NFL teams have started the regular season with an 0-2 record. Some teams (Panthers, Broncos) are experiencing expected struggles, with others (Ravens, Rams) disappointing fans hoping for a playoff run.

Since 2015, 74 teams have opened the year with back-to-back losses, (h/t James Boyd of The Athletic). Just eight qualified for the postseason, a 10.8% rate that suggests only one of this season’s 0-2 starters will make the playoffs.

The Ravens were a toe away from taking the Chiefs into overtime (or attempting a do-or-die two-point try) in Week 1 before blowing yet another double-digit fourth-quarter lead to the Raiders in Week 2. Baltimore gambled on a new-look offensive line after jettisoning three veteran starters during the offseason, and the results thus far have not been encouraging. Lamar Jackson faced heavy pressure at crucial moments across his first two games, with right guard Daniel Faalele struggling in his conversion from tackle. First-year defensive coordinator Zach Orr is dealing with the same early hiccups that his predecessor Mike Macdonald did back in 2022, surrendering a league-high 257 passing yards per game.

Unlike past years, though, Baltimore has started the season healthy, and it is capable of winning almost any game with Jackson under center. Several young Ravens like Odafe Oweh, Travis Jones, Zay Flowers, and Isaiah Likely have begun the year with promising starts, too, so the team has plenty of reason to remain optimistic about its long-term playoff chances. The Ravens will need to win at least two of their next three against the Cowboys, Bills, and Bengals to avoid a near-insurmountable 1-4 hole.

The division-rival Bengals are also 0-2, scoring just 10 points in Week 1 against the Patriots and losing to the Chiefs on a field goal as time expired. Ja’Marr Chase‘s hold-in did not extend into the regular season, but his lack of practice time and Tee Higgins‘ hamstring injury has hindered Cincinnati’s downfield passing game. The running back committee of Zack Moss and Chase Brown is a clear downgrade from Joe Mixon, and Cincinnati’s defense has struggled to apply pressure outside of Trey Hendrickson.

Cincinnati’s minus-7 point differential is the best of any 0-2 team, and the offense will likely improve as Chase gets more reps and Higgins recovers. The Bengals’ secondary has allowed the second-fewest pass yards through two weeks, and that includes a matchup with Patrick Mahomes. Cincinnati’s season will rely on keeping its three offensive stars healthy. A search for a pass rusher at the trade deadline to pair with Hendrickson may also be avenue the team explores.

The Rams hoped Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp returning to full health would pair with last year’s breakthroughs from Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams to create one of the league’s most explosive offenses. Injuries to Kupp and Nacua, plus starting offensive linemen Joe Noteboom, Steve Avila and Jonah Jackson, have decimated the Los Angeles offense — a clear factor in their Week 2 41-10 blowout loss to the Cardinals. The Rams also have three defensive backs on injured reserve, leaving their secondary shorthanded and placing a burden on a young front seven that lost Aaron Donald to retirement in the offseason.

That young defensive front has plenty of talent in second-year players Kobie Turner and Byron Young and rookies Jared Verse and Braden Fiske. They will need to step up their play over the next several weeks to keep the Rams afloat as the offense desperately tries to get healthy in time for a late-season playoff push.

The Jaguars‘ anemic offense has emerged as the team’s biggest issue to start the season, as Trevor Lawrence‘s 51.0% completion rate is the second-lowest in the league. The fourth-year QB needs more consistency from his pass-catching group, with none of Lawrence’s targets having more than six receptions yet. The defense has allowed just 38 points, a top-10 mark, but has not forced any turnovers that could have impacted in the team’s one-score losses.

The Colts are dealing with the highs and lows of quarterback Anthony Richardson, as the second-year QB has produced some of the best throws of the young season while also owning the league’s lowest completion percentage (49.1%) and most interceptions (four). Veteran Michael Pittman Jr. and rookie Adonai Mitchell have both struggled to find a rhythm on offense, and the defense has been gashed on the ground in both games.

Richardson’s continued development will advance the offense, which has plenty of potential with a strong offensive line and a fully healthy Jonathan Taylor. Indianapolis’ defense remains its biggest impediment to the postseason. Outside of the interior defensive duo of DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart, the Colts lack both consistent contributors and impact playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. And Buckner is now on IR.

The Titans have lost each of their first two games by a touchdown and have yet to score a point in the fourth quarter. Two of Will Levis‘ three primary receivers are new additions, as is running back Tony Pollard. As a result, Tennessee’s offense is a work in progress as the franchise’s decision-makers evaluate if Levis is the QB of the future. Defensively, the Titans have stars at all three levels: defensive tackle Jeffrey Simmons, linebacker Harold Landry and cornerback L’Jarius Sneed. The addition of Ernest Jones via preseason trade with the Rams may well be a shrewd move to shore up the middle, giving Tennessee the framework of a high-upside defense.

First-round pick Malik Nabers has been among the few bright spots during the Giants‘ 0-2 start, recording 15 catches for 193 yards to open the year. Daniel Jones has largely struggled when not targeting Nabers behind an offensive line with multiple new pieces. New York’s defense allowed efficient passing performances from Sam Darnold and Jayden Daniels while surrendering 5.3 yards per rushing attempt in Weeks 1 and 2. Offseason addition Brian Burns and 2022 first-rounder Kayvon Thibodeaux have yet to record sacks this season, making life harder for a young Giants secondary.

The Giants considered trading up for a rookie QB during this past draft, indicating that Jones’ future in New York depends on his performance this season. Either he succeeds, and the Giants stick with him and his contract, or he struggles and is replaced before next season, giving general manager Joe Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll the chance to save their tenure. This duo may not be on the hot seat presently, but this trajectory would point to temperatures rising before season’s end.

Sean Payton landed on first-rounder Bo Nix as his starting quarterback in Denver, and the rookie’s early struggles have only amplified the overall talent deficiency on the roster. Nix’s four interceptions and a virtually nonexistent running game have hindered the offense thus far, putting the defense in disadvantageous positions in both games. The Broncos’ underrated defensive line has gotten pressure on opposing QBs, but the team will need more than just Patrick Surtain in the secondary to stay in games with such a limited offense.

The Panthers benched Bryce Young after their 0-2 start, which included three interceptions and league-lows in points (13) and passing yards (245). A season-ending meniscus tear for Derrick Brown has added injury to insult to a Carolina franchise with little talent or direction at the moment. Switching to Andy Dalton at quarterback may stabilize the offense and aid the development of its young playmakers, but that still provides no long-term solution under center.

Which of these teams has the best chance to beat the above-referenced odds and rebound en route to the playoffs? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.

The QB Market’s Substantial Growth

September 18th, 2024 at 10:00pm CST by Sam Robinson

A year after a host of young quarterbacks jockeyed for position to form the $50MM-per-year club, the Cowboys made Dak Prescott the first 30-something member of this contingent. Facing historic player leverage, Dallas greenlit a deal that separated Prescott from the pack.

The NFL has managed to climb from $30MM being its highwater salary point to Prescott’s $60MM-AAV place in barely six years. It took more than 30 years for the league to climb from its first $1MM quarterback to Matt Ryan‘s $30MM-per-year deal from 2018, illustrating the booming market — as the salary cap continues to spike — the current crop enjoys.

Since the 1993 offseason brought the league’s first $5MM-per-year player, here are steps taken to move the market to where it currently stands:

July 15, 1993

  • Steve Young signs five-year, $25.25MM 49ers extension

As the free agency era began, the franchise tag also made its debut. Young was in the first class of tagged players, and the 49ers rewarded the reigning MVP by making him the NFL’s first $5MM-per-year player. Young’s agreement, which narrowly surpassed fellow future Hall of Famer John Elway‘s 1993 extension, covered four seasons before the southpaw passer landed another 49ers re-up in 1997.

March 2, 2001

  • Packers give Brett Favre 10-year, $101.5MM deal

Dubbed as a “lifetime contract,” Favre’s deal made him the league’s first eight-figure-per-year player. This contract ended up being acquired by the Jets in 2008.

December 29, 2005

Acting early, the Bengals re-upped Palmer late in his second season as their starter. Three years remained on Palmer’s rookie deal at the time. The former No. 1 overall pick did not receive a new one until after his 2011 trade to the Raiders.

July 13, 2012

  • Drew Brees ends franchise tag period with five-year, $100MM Saints accord

It took a bit longer for the NFL to get from $15MM per year to $20MM on average, as the 2011 CBA did not bring cap growth until the mid-2010s. Brees agreed to terms shortly before the July tag deadline, with this deal coming with a grievance that ruled the Saints QB’s tag counted as his second even though his first tag (2005) came from the Chargers. Brees winning the grievance worked as precedent in cases like Kirk Cousins‘ down the road.

June 23, 2017

Admitting he left some money on the table, Carr still became the NFL’s first $25MM-per-year man. He played on that contract through the 2021 season, before agreeing to terms on a third Raiders pact — one that came with a notable escape hatch — in 2022.

May 3, 2018

The floodgates began to open following Carr’s accord and Cousins’ fully guaranteed Vikings pact. Ryan did not land a deal after his 2016 MVP season, but following another Falcons playoff berth in 2017, their longtime starter reaped rewards. Ryan remained attached to this deal following a 2022 trade to the Colts.

April 16, 2019

Meeting their starter’s deadline, the Seahawks hit $35MM per year on the dual-threat standout’s third contract. Wilson played three seasons on this deal. Leery of another negotiation, Seattle bailed in 2022 via a blockbuster trade. Denver then authorized an extension — one it shed to set a dead money record — days before Wilson’s debut with the team.

July 6, 2020

Mahomes became the first NFLer to hit both the $40MM- and $45MM-per-year benchmarks, signing a deal that upped the market but gave the team tremendous flexibility. The Chiefs reworked Mahomes’ contract in 2023 but have gone to the restructure well three times, including this offseason. No one else has signed a contract spanning more than six years since, and Mahomes is the only NFLer tied to a team through 2031.

March 8, 2022

As trade rumors (most notably involving the Broncos) followed Rodgers since his feud with Packers management became known on draft weekend 2021, the four-time MVP agreed to stay for what turned out to be one more season in Green Bay. The Packers constructed the contract to include a bonus structure that allowed for an easier trade. Both the Packers and Jets restructured Rodgers’ deal, which did still tag Green Bay with more than $40MM in dead money, in 2023.

September 7, 2023

An offseason of one-upping that involved Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert ended with Burrow setting the market at $55MM per year. Trevor Lawrence and Jordan Love hit this AAV in 2024.

September 8, 2024

Armed with unique leverage and wielding it during his latest round of extension talks, Prescott upped the market by $5MM per annum in becoming the NFL’s first $60MM-per-year performer. As they did during seminal 2021 negotiations, the Cowboys included no-tag and no-trade clauses in their starter’s accord.

Community Tailgate: Haason Reddick’s Jets Holdout

September 15th, 2024 at 10:08pm CST by Adam La Rose

Haason Reddick’s situation remains one surrounded by uncertainty. The Pro Bowl edge rusher has been away from the Jets throughout the offseason with the exception of his introductory press conference on April 1.

The past two seasons saw Reddick cement his status as one of the most productive players at his position, as he racked up 27 sacks in 34 games. That brought his total since 2020 to 50.5, fourth-most in the league during that span. Once it became clear no Philadelphia extension would be in play, though, the team allowed him to seek out a trade. Reddick preferred to remain with the Eagles, but he was dealt to the Jets for a conditional third-round pick.

That selection can become a second-rounder based on his playing time and production, but it would come as a surprise if he hit either threshold as things currently stand. The soon-to-be 30-year-old received an extension offer from the Jets prior to the trade taking place, but that was below market value.

Signs indicated team and player would be willing to continue negotiating after the introductory presser, with New York being particularly amenable to tacking on incentives to the 2024 portion of Reddick’s contract. No progress has been made on that front, however, and ESPN’s Adam Schefter and Rich Cimini note an agreement of any kind is not considered imminent at this time.

Reddick’s camp expected the Jets to circle back to extension talks during the summer, during which he remained away from the team. The matter of his absence has become a central sticking point in this situation; New York has insisted negotiations will only take place once the Temple product reports, while he continues to wait for discussions on a resolution to resume. With neither side willing to budge, this saga took another turn last month.

Again looking to find a suitor willing to meet his desired contract terms, Reddick asked for a trade from the Jets in August. To little surprise, general manager Joe Douglas immediately shot down the request, although the weeks following that move have not yielded any new developments. Reddick has still not attended the facility, leading to New York retaining him on the reserve/did not report list. Douglas has remained consistent in his messaging that contract talks can and will take place once the holdout ends.

In the meantime, Reddick’s financial penalties for his absence continue to accumulate. Mandatory daily training camp fines – which, since he is not attached to a rookie contract, cannot be waived – have reached $4.5MM at this point, while he has also lost a portion of his signing bonus. The former first-rounder lost out on a $792K game check last week, and that will remain the case today and for each contest moving forward until a resolution is found. Reddick’s original base salary for the year ($14.25MM) did not vest ahead of Week 1 since he is still not on the Jets’ active roster, and his earning power as a free agent has no doubt taken a hit this offseason.

Still, his return to the field – which may not take place in 2024 – would be welcomed on a Jets team which lost Bryce Huff (to the Eagles) in free agency and dealt John Franklin-Myers during the draft. Reddick is viewed as having a three-down skillset, something which differentiates him from Huff, so he could occupy a notable role for New York if he were to end his holdout. As the cases of Le’Veon Bell (2018) and Trent Williams (2019) demonstrate, however, players have been known to skip out entire campaigns in the past.

Chris Jones continued his efforts to land a new Chiefs accord into Week 1 last year. Kansas City lost the season opener, and a new agreement was in place before Week 2. Reddick has continued his holdout past that point, and while his agent has been in contact with Douglas, no direct communication with the team has taken place. No end is in sight as a result, although things could of course change rather quickly.

Reddick’s contract will toll in the event he skips out on the entire campaign. That would leave him under team control with the Jets and thus eliminate the possibility of landing a market-level free agent contract in 2025. As CBS Sports’ Joel Corry notes, no exact deadline is in place for him to report to accrue a season in 2024, although doing so before the trade deadline would help ensure he manages to hit the open market during the spring (unless, of course, a Jets extension comes to pass in the near future). Until any movement happens in on either side of this situation, speculation will continue.

How do you see the Reddick holdout proceeding? Will a resolution allowing him to play in New York this season take place, or will another outcome (specifically a trade to a new team or his absence spanning the entire campaign) come to bear? Give your thoughts in the comments section below.

Offseason In Review: San Francisco 49ers

September 9th, 2024 at 9:58pm CST by Sam Robinson

As we reach the end of this year’s Offseason In Review journey, the defending NFC champions — who played the lead role in churning out summer content — close the show. After coming closer to winning a championship without actually doing so than anyone in the Super Bowl era, the 49ers completed a busy offseason.

Extensions and reworkings, one after an endless rumor spree that involved a handful of other teams, dominated a San Francisco offseason that also featured a key coaching change. Here is how the 2023 runners-up went about assembling their latest Super Bowl contender.

Extensions and restructures:

Amid the 49ers’ months-long Aiyuk odyssey, they rewarded the game’s most dynamic running back. As RB salaries stagnated ahead of a 2023 crisis point at the position, this year brought some relief for the market. Saquon Barkley secured $26MM fully guaranteed to top all backs. No player had approached McCaffrey’s $16MM-per-year AAV, however; that number topped position since the Panthers signed off on it in April 2020. But McCaffrey’s deal had paid out its guarantees ahead of the All-Pro’s age-28 season. The 49ers soon took care of the 2022 trade acquisition, raising the RB ceiling with a number unlikely to be approached in the near future.

McCaffrey now holds the RB AAV lead by $4MM, and his $24MM at signing trails only Barkley. Of course, CMC already played four seasons on the deal he inked with the Panthers to set himself up well despite playing a position with a notoriously short career span.

The second-generation NFLer proved a perfect fit in Kyle Shanahan‘s offense, giving Brock Purdy an unmatched backfield weapon as he began his QB1 run. The 49ers beat out the Rams by sending second-, third-, fourth- and fifth-round picks for McCaffrey and saw tremendous return on investment last year, when the former top-10 draftee soared to Offensive Player of the Year acclaim.

McCaffrey’s rushing title (1,459 yards) was the franchise’s first since Hall of Famer Joe Perry in 1954, and the OPOY’s 21 total touchdowns led the league despite the 49ers resting him in Week 18. McCaffrey’s workload (1,806 career touches) and Carolina injury history certainly bring concerns entering Year 8, but he has shown the value a top-tier RB can provide a team and did well to secure money through 2025.

Although the deal runs through the 2027 season, it becomes a pay-as-you-go pact beyond 2025. It would cost the 49ers $12.8MM to move on from McCaffrey in 2026, but even if that happens, this will still be considered a successful partnership. The 49ers had kept RB costs low since their 2018 Jerick McKinnon deal did not pan out, but they will hope to again lean on the game’s most expensive ball-carrier as they attempt to win their first Super Bowl in 30 years.

This payment may well have provided a push for Williams to act regarding his contract, as he is by far the top player blocking for McCaffrey. The 49ers have constructed an offensive line that features only Williams tied to a deal worth more than $6MM per year, leaving the door open to this holdout due to the value the perennial All-Pro left tackle provides. A rumor about a potential Williams contract squabble surfaced in June, and the decorated blocker indeed followed through on an attempt to seek an update midway through his six-year deal.

Williams, 36, signed a six-year, $138MM contract in 2021, as the 49ers beat out the Chiefs to re-sign a player who would secure Hall of Fame entry on this contract. The former Washington top-five pick, a first-team All-Pro each year from 2021-23, had played out the guarantees on his contract. Despite the 49ers controlling Williams through 2026, they were dealing with a player who had already displayed conviction via his 2019 Washington standoff — one that ultimately keyed a 2020 trade to San Francisco. The 49ers’ O-line construction also brings Williams dependance, a blueprint reflected in the team’s 0-2 record without its stalwart LT last season.

Between missed practices and preseason games, this holdout cost Williams $5.39MM to wage. Although the CBA prevented the 49ers from waiving Williams’ fines like they did for Nick Bosa (due to the former being on a veteran contract), the holdout probably proved worthwhile for the 15th-year veteran. Williams’ updated deal added no new years but made him the NFL’s highest-paid tackle once again ($27.55MM per year) and made it nearly impossible for the 49ers to move on until at least 2026. Even then, the penalty would now be steep ($35.7MM).

With Williams confirming late last season he was not planning to retire, the 49ers will show faith he can deliver multiple additional seasons. With one more Pro Bowl nod, Williams — an 11-time Pro Bowler — can set the NFL tackle record.

Jennings’ agreement pointed to the 49ers splitting up their Aiyuk-Deebo Samuel pair in 2025, and with Aiyuk finally signed, Samuel trade rumors probably are not far away. A former seventh-round pick, Jennings has delivered strong value. The team attempted to replace Jennings with third-rounder Danny Gray, but Jennings has proven important in more ways than one. The ex-quarterback caught and threw a TD pass in Super Bowl LVIII, coming after a 361-snap season, and PFF rated him as the NFL’s third-best run-blocking receiver in 2023.

Previously given a second-round RFA tender, the 27-year-old role player is signed through 2025. He rounds out a deep receiving corps, should first-rounder Ricky Pearsall eventually factor into this season’s equation. Of course, this was a footnote compared to the next notable WR transaction the 49ers completed.

John Lynch said in February an Aiyuk extension would present challenges; this proved a good synopsis for the action-packed negotiations ahead. Discussions began in late March, but no movement between the parties occurred for months. This produced countless rumors about Aiyuk’s price points — in terms of AAV and guarantees — and invited other teams to inquire. Trade talks did not become serious until training camp, though the 49ers — as they did with Samuel during his 2022 impasse — discussed Aiyuk with teams during the draft. San Francisco wanted a mid-first-round pick for the second-team All-Pro; no team made such an offer, and by summer’s end, no team ultimately would.

During the sides’ negotiations, the wideout market shifted. When the parties began talking, one receiver was tied to a deal north of $30MM per year (Tyreek Hill). Amon-Ra St. Brown and A.J. Brown joined that club in April, and Justin Jefferson reset the market in late May. CeeDee Lamb used the Jefferson deal to secure monster terms from the Cowboys following a holdout. The top two contracts on the market did not affect Aiyuk too closely, but the position’s ceiling rising as it did inflated asking prices for players not quite on that level. The Dolphins and Eagles respectively paying Jaylen Waddle ($28.25MM per year, $76MM guaranteed) and DeVonta Smith ($25MM AAV, $69.99MM guaranteed) shaped the Aiyuk talks as well.

These deals did not convince the 49ers to change their Aiyuk view for months; the team stood at a price between $26-$27MM per year until training camp. Aiyuk had aimed to land St. Brown-level money and targeted guarantees in the Brown range ($84MM). An ascending player, the 26-year-old talent still exited the 2023 season 17th in receiving yards in the 2020s. Aiyuk’s surface-level stats brought scrutiny regarding his demands.

The 2020 first-round pick, however, displayed high-end efficiency last season. His 1,342-yard year came on just 105 targets in the 49ers’ well-balanced offense. Aiyuk’s 3.01 yards per route run ranked third in the NFL last year, and his camp undoubtedly parlayed this efficiency — along with Aiyuk’s importance to a championship contender — into the late-August windfall.

Before reaching the finish line, the 49ers let Aiyuk shop around. Had he wanted to merely take the best deal, the Patriots (at $32MM per year, with Kendrick Bourne potentially coming back to San Francisco) may have been the trade partner. But Aiyuk did not want to be dealt to New England or Cleveland, the latter offering $30MM per and submitting an interesting package involving contract-year WR Amari Cooper along with second- and fifth-round picks. Although Aiyuk would have welcomed being dealt to the Commanders and reuniting with college teammate Jayden Daniels, they were not especially interested.

The Steelers — an Aiyuk draw largely due to Mike Tomlin‘s presence — became the “what if?” team, but their trade and extension offers underwhelmed both the 49ers and Aiyuk. Trade framework ultimately emerged, but the underwhelming proposals ended up bringing Aiyuk back to the table with the 49ers, who again turned a WR trade request into a summer extension. Of course, it took San Francisco upping its offer to $30MM per.

Pittsburgh not having a comparable receiver to trade for Aiyuk hurt its cause, leading San Francisco to contact other teams about what would have essentially been a three-team trade. Most notably, they offered the Broncos a third-rounder for Courtland Sutton. The Steelers offered second- and third-round picks for Aiyuk, but the 49ers being unable to flip the third they would have obtained for Sutton helped keep Aiyuk in the fold. Sitting on the same extension offer for two-plus weeks, Aiyuk accepted and is now the NFL’s sixth $30MM-per-year receiver.

Considering how difficult it would have been for the 49ers to replace their top outside receiver at this juncture, a late-summer trade never made much sense. Had the 49ers been rebuilding and determined to obtain the most value, Aiyuk is probably in the AFC now. For one more season at least, the 49ers’ four-All-Pro skill-position setup — which includes Samuel and George Kittle on through-2025 contracts — is intact. A likely Purdy 2025 extension threatens to split up the quartet after this season.

Free agency additions:

These signings seem like they occurred years ago, as the 49ers’ holdover contracts overshadowed their outside additions. But Floyd represents a key piece for a team that carried far less proven edge rushers opposite Bosa for a multiyear stretch. After washing out with the Bears, Floyd revitalized his career alongside Aaron Donald. Floyd’s Bills work, however, showed he was not merely a Donald creation.

The former top-10 Chicago pick matched his career high with 10.5 sacks last season, becoming a vital defender for a Bills team that did not see Von Miller display his 2022 form after a second ACL tear. Given a one-year, $7MM Buffalo deal, Floyd anchored the AFC East champs’ pass rush. He is in San Francisco due to an assist from offseason hire Brandon Staley, the ex-Rams DC who pushed for a reunion.

Floyd, who turned 32 on Sunday, has been one of the 2020s’ most consistent rushers. He has totaled between nine and 10.5 sacks in each of the past four seasons and tallied between 18 and 22 QB hits each year this decade. Teaming with Bosa and highly regarded D-line coach Kris Kocurek should allow Floyd to continue producing at this level.

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Poll: Which First-Time Head Coach Will Fare Best In 2024?

September 8th, 2024 at 10:09pm CST by Adam La Rose

The 2024 coaching cycle produced eight hires around the NFL. Raheem Morris (Falcons), Jim Harbaugh (Chargers) and Dan Quinn (Commanders) are each in place as head coaches after previously serving in that role with past teams. The other five are making their coaching debuts this weekend.

Dave Canales ended a lengthy tenure with the Seahawks in 2023 when took over as the Buccaneers’ offensive coordinator. That was his first opportunity as a play-caller at the college or NFL levels, and Tampa Bay did not rank among the league’s elite in terms of passing production. The team was also last in rushing yardage, but overall the Buccaneers outperformed expectations in 2023. Quarterback Baker Mayfield was among the many in-house players who landed a contract keeping him in Tamp Bay this offseason.

That came in no small part from the former No. 1 pick’s career highs in yards (4,044) and touchdown passes (28) under Canales. Expectations will be high for another NFC South title in 2024 for the Bucs, but the opposite will be the case in Carolina as Canales begins his first head coaching gig. The 43-year-old helped stabilize Mayfield’s career in Tampa Bay after doing the same with Geno Smith in Seattle. Canales will now be tasked with overseeing Bryce Young’s development.

Selected first overall last April after the Panthers’ blockbuster trade to acquire the top pick, Young struggled mightily in 2023. The same was true of many other aspects of the organization, of course, and head coach Frank Reich was fired midway through his first season as head coach. General manager Scott Fitterer was dismissed this offseason, with Dan Morgan being promoted as his replacement. He and Canales are at the helm of a long-term rebuild, but at least slight improvement from last year’s 2-15 campaign will be expected in 2024.

Antonio Pierce has slightly more experience than his fellow first-year coaches. The Raiders gave him the interim HC title after Josh McDaniels was fired midway through his second season in Vegas. Owner Mark Davis was in a similar situation when Rich Bisaccia took on interim duties in 2021. Davis allowed Bisaccia to depart, a move he has since expressed regret over.

Instead of repeating that move this year, Davis tapped Pierce for the full-time gig. Many players publicly endorsed the former Pro Bowl linebacker after he guided the team to a 5-4 record down the stretch. Efforts to land a quarterback in the first round of the draft were unsuccessful, so training camp saw incumbent Aidan O’Connell and free agent pickup Gardner Minshew compete for the starting gig. Neither passer impressed, and the veteran will begin the year atop the depth chart based largely on his experience.

The Raiders added Christian Wilkins to a defensive front already featuring Maxx Crosby, and the team’s defense will be leaned on heavily amidst questions in the passing game. Vegas’ rushing output without Josh Jacobs in the backfield will also be worth watching as Pierce looks to lead the Raiders to a postseason return or at least offer a reason for long-term stability on the sidelines.

Jerod Mayo was known to be the Patriots’ heir apparent to Bill Belichick well before the six-time Super Bowl winner parted ways with the organization. Belichick’s departure came about after the third year with Mac Jones in place at quarterback wound up as a disaster. Sweeping changes on offense were made in the offseason, although a number of players brought in during Belichick’s tenure were retained.

That will leave Mayo – who spent his entire eight-year playing career in New England – with several familiar faces on defense in particular (except, notably, Matt Judon). The 38-year-old spent much of his first training camp overseeing a quarterback competition between veteran Jacoby Brissett and rookie Drake Maye. The latter will begin his career on the bench, but as the No. 3 pick in April’s draft and the more productive passer during the preseason he is expected see the field in relatively short order.

The 2024 campaign will be measured in large part by Maye’s development, but the degree to which the Patriots’ offensive line and receiving corps progress will be worth watching as well. Mayo and first-year de facto GM Eliot Wolf‘s roster is not expected to compete in the AFC East, but a step forward from the end of the Belichick era would provide optimism moving forward.

Pete Carroll attempted to remain in place at the helm of the Seahawks in 2024, but the team moved forward with finding his replacement. Mike Macdonald, 36, is the only head coach younger than Mayo and he represents a candidate to enjoy a lengthy tenure in the Emerald City just as Carroll did. Macdonald spent the 2022 and ’23 seasons serving as the Ravens’ defensive coordinator, boosting his stock considerably during that time.

Baltimore led the NFL in points allowed, sacks and takeaways last year. That unprecedented feat put him on the head coaching radar despite his age and the fact many younger head coaches tend to have a background on the offensive side of the ball. New OC Ryan Grubb will take charge of Seattle’s offense while Macdonald focuses on orchestrating a defensive rebound. The Seahawks have ranked no better than 22nd in total defense over the past five years.

Seattle finished 9-8 last season, and quarterback Geno Smith is among the core players still in place from Carroll’s final campaign. If Macdonald can guide the team to a better finish on defense, a postseason berth could very well be within reach. The NFC West figures to remain highly competitive, though, so his first year at the helm will feature several challenges if a return to the playoffs is to take place.  

Brian Callahan joined Zac Taylor’s original Bengals staff in 2019 and he worked as offensive coordinator for five years. That gig did not include play-calling responsibilities, but Callahan drew head coaching interest before landing the Titans’ position. Tennessee moved on from Mike Vrabel after a second straight losing season, and Callahan will be tasked with developing quarterback Will Levis in his place.

The 2023 second-rounder made nine starts during his rookie campaign after taking over from Ryan Tannehill. Levis’ ability to progress will be Tennessee’s top storyline as he takes charge of a unit which now features Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, Tony Pollard and multiple new starters along the offensive line. Callahan’s ability to fit those new elements into the offense and maximize Levis’ potential will determine much of the team’s short- and long-term outlook.

The Titans went 6-11 last year and the AFC South includes three other teams which have young passers; all of them posted better records than Tennessee in 2023. Ran Carthon enters his second season as general manager, and the team’s new regime will be tasked with moving forward with a new core compared to the Vrabel era. Callahan is a central figure in that effort, and Levis’ first full campaign atop the depth chart will be worth watching closely as Callahan handles play-calling duties.

Which staffer do you think will have the best campaign in 2024? Cast your vote in PFR’s latest poll and have your say in the comments section.

Offseason In Review: Dallas Cowboys

September 8th, 2024 at 8:30am CST by Sam Robinson

Perhaps the worst letdown in a string of Cowboys playoff misfortunes caused Jerry Jones to make Mike McCarthy a rare lame-duck HC and stall on a Dak Prescott extension. The longtime owner received steady criticism for letting the Prescott and CeeDee Lamb situations fester throughout the offseason, one that otherwise featured few veteran augmentations.

Rookies became needed to fill holes along Dallas’ offensive line, and constant questions about how the team plans to assemble a backfield came out. As usual, however, the Cowboys kept it interesting as they remain on the job of trying to end a near-30-year NFC championship game drought.

Extensions and restructures:

With Micah Parsons under contract through 2025 via the fifth-year option, the Cowboys’ three-headed contract quagmire became a Lamb-Prescott matter as this offseason progressed. In Cowboys fashion, negotiations with each generated numerous headlines. One holdout ensued. But the team did reach a resolution with one of the two standouts, moving first to pay Lamb after his first-team All-Pro season.

Shifting to the Cowboys’ go-to performer after the 2022 Amari Cooper trade, Lamb led the NFL in receptions last season and broke Michael Irvin‘s single-season records for catches and yards by tallying 135 grabs and 1,749 yards. Serious extension talks did not pick up until training camp. Lamb surfaced as an extension candidate in 2023, and it would have been cheaper to extend him then. Per COO Stephen Jones, Lamb was not interested in an extension in 2023. Whatever the case may be, the 25-year-old wideout enhanced his value by both dominating in 2023 and waiting for other receivers to move the market well past $30MM per year.

Exiting the 2023 offseason, only Tyreek Hill had secured a $30MM-per-year deal at wide receiver. Hill’s pact also deceived, as a phony final-year salary propped up the AAV. Lamb and Justin Jefferson sought legit structures, and by the time Dallas’ WR1 came to the table, three other wideouts — Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown — had moved past $30MM per annum. Jefferson’s $35MM-per-year deal that included $110MM guaranteed and $88.7MM guaranteed at signing played the biggest role in Lamb negotiations, just as it has in Ja’Marr Chase‘s Bengals talks.

Stephen Jones initially said Lamb was seeking to become the NFL’s highest-paid non-QB, topping Jefferson, but quickly retracted it. Jerry Jones then said the team was not operating urgently with Lamb before backtracking, after Lamb took issue with the owner’s situational assessment. The Cowboys submitted a few offers to Lamb, initially coming in below $33MM per year and then moving between $33-$34MM on average before finally reaching $34MM per.

The Vikings’ landmark deal reset the WR guarantee market, and this booming market did not feature the kind of deals the Cowboys typically work out. Dallas has long preferred lengthier contracts — spanning at least five years — but receivers in recent offseasons had opted for three- and four-year extensions. Dallas both bent on term length, guarantees and eventually AAV.

After previously never giving a wideout more than $60MM guaranteed, the Cowboys rewarded Lamb — after a weeks-long holdout — with $100MM locked in and $67MM at signing. Those numbers placed the 2020 first-rounder comfortably in second at the position.

As many big-ticket extensions now feature, a rolling guarantee structure offers Lamb year-out protection. His 2026 base salary ($25MM) shifts from an injury guarantee to a full guarantee in March 2025. Another $7MM for 2027 will shift from an injury guarantee to locked-in cash in 2026. The Cowboys used four void years packed with option bonuses to spread out Lamb’s cap hits; the extension saved the team more than $10MM in 2024 cap space.

[RELATED: Prescott Agreed To Four-Year, $240MM Extension On Sunday]

The Lamb holdout merely stood as a high-end undercard to Prescott’s main event. Dallas took this process to the wire — ahead of a soft Week 1 deadline — and is heading into rocky terrain with their ninth-year starter. After a rumor circulated indicating the Cowboys would be OK letting Prescott hit free agency next year, the team pushed back on it by insisting it wants to extend the former fourth-round find. Both team and player initially said a contract did not have to be done by Week 1, but Prescott later added that “it says a lot if it is or it isn’t.” This situation ran late into Saturday night, but Dak remains on the four-year, $160MM contract he signed in March 2021. As it stands, he is months from being one of the most coveted targets in free agency history.

The Cowboys are battling uphill against their quarterback, having given him extraordinary leverage thanks to a three-offseason negotiation that afforded the QB no-trade and no-franchise tag clauses. Dallas later completed multiple restructures, ballooning Prescott’s 2024 cap hit to $55.13MM and creating a $40.13MM dead money hit — thanks to void years — if he is not extended by the start of the 2025 league year.

Unless the 30-year-old passer receives a monster offer — the $60MM-per-year number has come up often — there is no reason for him to pass on approaching free agency. He did not shut down that path this summer.

Maligned due to his place as the centerpiece player on a team known for late-season shortcomings, Prescott is nevertheless coming off a second-team All-Pro season. The MVP runner-up bounced back from a down 2022 season, and if Kirk Cousins fetched $100MM in practical guarantees ahead of an age-36 season following Achilles surgery, Prescott would be in position to reset a quarterback market that has incrementally climbed to the $55MM-per-year place. As should be expected, Dak is targeting a deal north of that $55MM-AAV number.

Unless the Cowboys are keen on starting over at QB with a veteran team — this worked out well for the post-Super Bowl 50 Broncos — after Jerry Jones’ 82nd birthday, they will need to again give in. A contract flooded with guarantees and early vesting dates will almost definitely be required to keep Dak from testing the market, as a $60MM-plus-AAV accord would certainly await in 2025 if he plays out his contract year.

Jones has received steady criticism for letting his top players’ values increase by waiting on extensions, but this is a unique contract to complete. The sides are believed to be in agreement on term length, at least, and the Cowboys do have exclusive negotiating rights until mid-March. Though, the closer we get to free agency, the more challenging the mission becomes for the team.

The Cowboys’ longest-tenured player now that Tyron Smith is gone, Martin still earned All-Pro acclaim despite admitting he was not at his best following a holdout last year. Martin is a future first-ballot Hall of Famer who secured guarantees over his six-year contract’s final two seasons, but this restructure will inflate the dead money total the Cowboys would absorb if the soon-to-be 34-year-old blocker is not re-signed in 2025. The 11th-year veteran is considering retirement after this season. If Martin retires, the Cowboys would be tasked with replacing an all-time guard great and face a $26.5MM dead cap hit next year.

Free agency additions:

Elliott now counts more than $8MM on Dallas’ payroll; the other $6MM comes from dead money associated with the Cowboys ditching his previous contract. Once given a six-year, $90MM deal to anchor Dallas’ offense, Elliott is now 29 and enters the season with by far the most touches (2,421) among active backs. The Cowboys did miss two-time rushing champion’s nose for the end zone last season, but his presence atop the depth chart creates concern.

Even as Elliott closed the Bill Belichick era as the Patriots’ starting running back, his New England one-off produced a bottom-10 rushing yards over expected mark (minus-71). The Cowboys pursued Zack Moss in free agency but saw him join the Bengals on a two-year, $8MM deal. Dallas did not chase Derrick Henry this offseason, and rumblings about an Elliott reunion — a topic that came up last year even after Dallas made him a post-June 1 cut — emerged before March’s end.

It remains odd the Cowboys did not at least add a late-round RB flier of sorts, instead re-signing Rico Dowdle and bringing in Cook, who enters the season with the fifth-most touches (1,585) among active RBs. Following four straight 1,100-yard rushing seasons in Minnesota, Cook saw his play nosedive in New York. The would-be Jets bridge back to Breece Hall ended up being released. The Cowboys can elevate Cook to their active roster, but an Elliott-Dowdle-Cook committee — in 2024, at least — may well be the NFL’s least formidable backfield.

The reunion theme continued on defense. While Kendricks and Joseph have no previous Cowboys ties, they both played several seasons under new DC Mike Zimmer. Each served as part of the Vikings’ defense-powered core in the 2010s, helping the team to three playoff berths during Zimmer’s tenure.

Joseph, 35, will be charged with helping out a Dallas run defense that ranked 16th last season — but one that allowed Aaron Jones to run wild in the seminal wild-card loss. The recent Chargers and Bills D-tackle, Joseph has made 170 career starts. He will most likely work as a situational player tasked with aiding Dallas ground deterrence.

Kendricks, 32, comes over after becoming a cap casualty (by the Vikings and Chargers) in each of the past two seasons. The former Zimmer mainstay had a deal in place to be the 49ers’ bridge to Dre Greenlaw, but Kendricks backtracked on that commitment and joined a Cowboys team promising more opportunities. With the Cowboys moving undersized LB Markquese Bell back to safety, cutting Leighton Vander Esch and seeing 2023 third-round pick DeMarvion Overshown coming back from an ACL tear, Kendricks is suddenly needed again.

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Offseason In Review: Atlanta Falcons

September 7th, 2024 at 10:05pm CST by Sam Robinson

It is difficult to come up with an offseason that featured this much Falcons discussion. Perhaps 2007. But this one brought three storylines that helped shape the NFL over the past several months. Three straight 7-10 seasons, which followed three previous non-playoff efforts, had made the Falcons into one of the league’s least interesting teams. Atlanta’s coaching search, free agency period and the draft — and even some post-draft activity to build on what the team had already done in 2024 — made this a captivating club to follow.

Coaching/front office:

Joining Ron Rivera in entrusting his job to a quarterback plan most doubted, Smith saw two season-ending blowouts seal his fate. The former Titans OC could not turn Desmond Ridder into a reliable starter, benching him on multiple occasions. Considering Ridder’s 2024 trajectory, Smith faced too daunting a task. Ownership still canned the three-year HC and set its sights on a more experienced option. Being the only team to target the most experienced coach on the market turned out to backfire, as the process received endless scrutiny and fallout.

Targeting experience after hiring first-timers in his searches throughout his ownership tenure, Arthur Blank is believed to have initially wanted Belichick as his next head coach. After the two interviews the Patriots legend conducted, he was in the lead. The Falcons were moving closer to going with the most accomplished HC in the Super Bowl era, and on the morning of the Morris hire, Belichick still believed he would land the job. Changes during one of the most captivating searches in PFR’s history will be associated with Morris, through no fault of his own, as Falcons higher-ups took heat for not hiring Belichick.

A rumor about many in the NFL suspecting Belichick was interested in bringing ex-Patriot assistants Josh McDaniels, Matt Patricia and Joe Judge with him came about as the candidate’s slide out of the lead chair for this job began. More significantly, turf protecting may well have taken place in Atlanta’s front office. Even though a report came out about Belichick being willing to cede personnel control — which he held throughout his New England tenure — CEO Rich McKay and GM Terry Fontenot would have naturally seen their power threatened had the longtime Patriots czar come aboard. Dot connecting certainly points to this duo steering Blank in another direction.

McKay, who has been with the Falcons since 2003, moved from the GM chair to the CEO role in 2008. He still wields considerable power within the organization, and a February report indicated the ex-Falcons and Buccaneers GM had a good relationship with Morris and conversely was not on the greatest terms with Belichick. Blank and McKay co-ran the search, with Fontenot providing input in his fourth year as GM, and an April examination revealed the Falcons did not end up ranking the 72-year-old leader in the top three for the job. With Morris the unanimous first choice, the McKay-Fontenot-Blank trio is believed to have respectively ranked Mike Macdonald and Bobby Slowik second and third.

Although a report that surfaced immediately after the Morris hire indicated McKay would step back from his role in football operations, he will certainly be tied to this decision. Football fans may have him to thank (perhaps blame) for Belichick’s upcoming media blitz this season.

As it stands, Fontenot remains in place as the team’s football ops boss. Belichick, who would have been the oldest HC hire in NFL history by six years, was seen as a short-term play by the Falcons and would have threatened Fontenot’s place in the power structure due to sheer experience. The six-time Super Bowl-winning HC figures to run into age-related hurdles as he tries to return to the league in 2025 as well. While Belichick-NFC East connections have subsequently emerged, Morris has a second chance.

Atlanta also interviewed Jim Harbaugh but saw the Michigan leader cancel a second interview, as he zeroed in on Los Angeles. Morris, 48, will make a historically quick return to a team that had employed him as its interim HC for most of the 2020 season.

Morris broke into the NFL as an assistant under McKay in Tampa and remained well liked among Falcons players still left from his interim stay. The former Bucs HC worked as a Falcons assistant (on both the defensive and offensive sides) from 2015-20 and bolstered his credentials for a second chance after winning a Super Bowl ring as Rams DC.

The Sean McVay tree has also produced promotions for several defensive coaches, with Morris following Brandon Staley as a Rams DC to receive a top job. Benefiting considerably from Aaron Donald‘s presence, Morris did not produce a top-12 defensive ranking in points or yardage in L.A. Being 24 years younger than Belichick obviously helped Morris’ cause, as did his past with McKay and the Falcons. Morris enters this season 21-38 as a head coach, but this Falcons roster may be the best he has helmed. Morris’ Bucs stay overlapped almost entirely with Josh Freeman‘s QB1 stint.

A few teams targeted Zac Robinson as OC, but once Morris took over in Atlanta, he quickly brought the ex-Rams QBs coach with him. The former Oklahoma State quarterback has been on McVay’s staff since 2019. Robinson, 38, has only worked for the Rams, moving up to pass-game coordinator in 2022. With teams continuing to gravitate toward McVay staffers, Robinson probably would have had multiple options — particularly after Puka Nacua‘s rookie-year dominance — to begin an OC career.

Lake’s resume is more complicated. Although he coached with Morris in Tampa and L.A., Lake is still best known for his quick dismissal as Washington’s HC. An incident in which Lake appeared to strike a player on the sidelines preceded another complaint emerging against the Huskies’ then-HC, and the school fired him in November 2021. Lake, who spent part of Morris’ Bucs stint coaching DBs, resurfaced as a Rams assistant HC in 2023. No other team sought a Lake DC interview this offseason, and he will begin this season as the Falcons’ defensive play-caller.

Free agency additions:

The Vikings were not willing to offer Cousins a deal comparable to the offer the Falcons submitted. Cousins-Atlanta connections came out in early March, and although both the QB and Vikings brass had said they wanted to huddle up for a fourth contract, hitting the open market once again — despite coming off an Achilles tear and entering an age-36 season — opened the door to lucrative outside bids. Being a proven above-average quarterback still brings big opportunities.

Cousins and the Vikings engaged in negotiations last year, but the sides disagreed on Year 3 guarantees. This led to a restructure, one the Vikings are paying for now. Even as $28.5MM was set to accelerate onto Minnesota’s 2024 cap, the Vikings stood down. They had a farfetched scenario in which Cousins could be their bridge QB before a rookie eventually took over (the irony), but Cousins wanted more than being a year-to-year option. One of the shrewdest financial operators in NFL history maximized his value once again by hitting the open market, and the Falcons — a year after Blank expressed excitement in building a roster around Ridder’s rookie contract — returned to the franchise-QB payment business.

Atlanta was linked to Justin Fields and Baker Mayfield, but Cousins rumors took over — as the ex-Rams staffers were not interested in Fields — in the days leading up to the legal tampering period. Other than the 2007 Joey Harrington signing in an emergency circumstance, this is the first Falcons free agency play for a starting quarterback since they signed Bobby Hebert from the Saints in 1993 — full-fledged free agency’s debut. In the years since, they had used the trade market (Jeff George, Chris Chandler) and the draft (Michael Vick, Matt Ryan, Ridder) to staff the position. Cousins brings risk, due to age and the October 2023 Achilles tear, but he has also been a dependably productive passer since usurping Robert Griffin III in Washington.

Cousins had thrown an NFL-most 18 touchdown passes when he went down, finishing off a three-TD day in Green Bay, and carries no previous injury baggage to Atlanta. Aaron Rodgers is also recovering from the same injury; he is nearly five years older.

Cousins could not elevate the Vikings to the Super Bowl precipice; the team missed the playoffs in three of his five healthy seasons. But the QB, who was blessed with Justin Jefferson and the Stefon Diggs–Adam Thielen pair before that, regularly put up stats. Cousins finished with three 30-plus-TD seasons in Minnesota. Though, he never finished in the top 12 in QBR as a Viking. The former fourth-round pick did rank seventh in the metric in his eight-game 2023 season. He received full clearance early in training camp.

The Falcons lost a fifth-round pick for tampering regarding their pursuits of Cousins and Mooney, whom the QB told his new team he would help recruit. This came before players could agree to deals, leading to a light punishment. Mooney will come over after two mediocre Bears years, but the former fifth-round find’s 2021 1,000-yard season clearly still resided in execs’ minds, as it took the Falcons matching the Jaguars’ three-year, $39MM Gabe Davis deal to land Mooney. The Chiefs and Titans were linked to Mooney as well.

Mooney, 26, ranked 39th in yards per route run in 2021 — Allen Robinson‘s franchise tag season that ended up revealing the veteran’s decline — and totaled 1,055 yards that year. He combined for 907 yards under OC Luke Getsy. Mooney’s fortunes should improve under Cousins, who consistently fed Thielen, Diggs and Jefferson while keeping K.J. Osborn regularly involved as well. The Falcons have not seen a productive receiving duo in a while, with the Julio Jones–Calvin Ridley pair last seeing substantial time together in 2019.

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