The Panthers’ Week 15 win over the Falcons brought the Patriots and Cardinals, who each lost, one game closer to the No. 1 overall pick. New England’s weaker strength of schedule provides keeps Arizona in the No. 3 spot, while Washington — weeks away from a likely full-scale reboot — has lost five straight to move into position for its first top-five pick since 2020.
Early reports have the Bears more likely to draftJustin Fields‘ replacement than trading a top pick once again, but the Patriots and Cardinals are still in the running for what could well be the Caleb Williamsdraft slot. Much less drama would emerge if New England claimed the top pick, as the Patriots would be expected to draft the top QB prize. Arizona landing atop the draft for the second time in six years could produce a derby, with Kyler Murray‘s contract difficult (but not impossible) to move for new GM Monti Ossenfort. QB-needy teams may well be hoping the Cardinals land one of the top two spots, however, providing a potential gateway to a trade-up for Williams or Drake Maye.
The Raiders’ 63-21 demolition of the Chargers slid them down six spots compared to their position last week. The Packers also climbed eight spots from their slot going into Week 15. Green Bay has not held a top-11 draft choice since it drafted B.J. Raji in the 2009 first round; that came on the heels of Aaron Rodgers‘ first season at the helm. Jordan Love‘s QB1 debut season could still produce a playoff berth, however, and the rest of the NFC and AFC wild-card races remain tightly bunched.
Here is how the 2024 draft order looks with three regular-season games to play:
December 17th, 2023 at 10:20pm CST by Adam La Rose
Given the NFL’s recent switch to a seven-team playoff format, claiming the No. 1 seed in each conference (and with it the lone bye in the wild-card round) carries particular significance. In the case of the NFC, a shortlist of teams will compete for the top spot over the final four weeks of the season.
Three of them – the 49ers, Cowboys and Eagles – entered Sunday at 10-3, though one member of the latter pair will be saddled with the No. 5 seed after finishing as the runner-up in the NFC East. The 49ers’ win over the Cardinals and Cowboys’ loss to the Bills separates San Francisco for the time being. The Lions, meanwhile, improved to 10-4 after their impressive showing on Saturday. Detroit will have work to do to overtake the conference’s other three heavyweights, but changes atop the standings could take place over the following month.
San Francisco currently leads the way, and owning the head-to-head tiebreaker against both Philadelphia and Dallas (by virtue of blowout victories) will help down the stretch. The 49ers’ commitment to Brock Purdyunder center has proven to be sound, as last year’s Mr. Irrelevant has improved on his rookie output. Purdy leads the NFL not only in completion percentage (70.2%) but also yards per attempt (9.9) and passer rating (116.9) while playing with arguably the league’s top skill-position group.
The 49ers’ offense (led by Purdy and fellow MVP candidate Christian McCaffrey) has shown itself to be an elite unit, as expected, this season. The team’s defense has also recovered from a downturn during their three-game losing streak. The trade deadline acquisition of Chase Youngadded to San Francisco’s front seven, but injuries in the secondary have left the 49ers in need of other in-season additions. A reunion with Jason Verrett and the signing of Logan Ryanhas given San Francisco a pair of veteran defensive backs to at least serve as depth on the backend. Only the 49ers’ Christmas Day game against the Ravens will see them face an opponent currently over .500 the rest of the way.
The Cowboys split the season series with the Eagles, allowing them to own the tiebreaker for the time being. A more daunting path awaits Dallas to close out the campaign, however, with road games against the Bills and Dolphins followed by a crucial matchup against the Lions. The Cowboys’ offense especially has proven to be one of the league’s best units this season, however, led by Dak Prescott. In line for an extension this offseason, the 30-year-old leads the NFL with 28 touchdown passes, and his passer rating sits at a career-high 107.5.
While those figures have Prescott in the MVP conversation and in line for a raise on his next pact, judgement of the Cowboys will of course depend on their postseason showing. The fate of head coach Mike McCarthy has been a talking point for some time now, owing in large part to the team’s inability to break through in the playoffs during his tenure. He could be in store for a new contract, however, especially if 2023 were to produce a deep run toward a Super Bowl. Given Dallas’ impressive home winning streak, securing the top seed could be imperative in that effort.
The Eagles enjoyed a strong start to the campaign, but consecutive losses have led to questions on the defensive side of the ball in particular (and now prompted a signficant change on the sidelines, with Matt Patricia assuming play-calling duties). That unit was affected more than the offense in the offseason exodus of talent following Philadelphia’s run to the Super Bowl, and the inside linebacker spot has drawn attention recently. The Eagles won out the competition to add Shaquille Leonardafter his sudden Colts departure, giving them a former All-Pro in the second level.
Leonard played sparingly in his Philadelphia debut (which fittingly came in Dallas after the Cowboys finished as the runners-up in the pursuit to sign him). Regardless of the role he plays down the stretch, Philadelphia could be in line for a rebound from the team’s recent showing. The Eagles play the Giants twice in the season’s final three weeks, and despite New York’s current winning streak, Philadelphia’s upcoming Monday night game against the 6-7 Seahawks will likely prove to be the strongest remaining challenge.
After a strong late-season run to close out the 2022 campaign, the Lions entered this season with the team’s highest expectations in years. For the most part, Detroit has lived up to the hype so far. Impressive performances from a number of contributors (including rookies Jahmyr Gibbsand Sam LaPorta) on offense has confirmed OC Ben Johnson’ status as one of the hottest head coach candidates for the upcoming hiring cycle. The 37-year-old drew interest last year before committing to a second campaign in the Motor City, but he has already been linked to multiple current vacancies.
Of course, the Lions’ offensive success has the chance of complicating quarterback Jared Goff’s future with the team. The former No. 1 pick has one year (and no guaranteed salary) remaining on his deal and Detroit drafted a potential successor this April in the form of Hendon Hooker. Goff leads the league in passing yards (3,727) entering Sunday’s action, however, and he could be playing his way into a new contract. The Lions, like the Eagles, will likely need to rely on their offense to overcome defensive shortcomings down the stretch. Games against the division-rival Vikings await the NFC North leaders with the aforementioned Cowboys contest in between.
One notable free agent who could help tip the scales is Zach Ertz. The veteran tight end asked for and was granted his Cardinals release, leaving him free to join a contender. Several teams could stand to add the three-time Pro Bowler, and the 49ers are believed to be interested in making him part of an already deep pass-catching corps. To no surprise, a reunion with the Eagles could also be in store. Both San Francisco and Philadelphia will have competition (from each conference) to land Ertz, however.
With the 49ers, Cowboys and Eagles set to play their respective Week 15 matchups today and tomorrow, how do you see the race to the No. 1 seed playing out? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and leave your thoughts in the comments section below:
Upon giving Joe Flacco the keys in Week 13, the Browns became the 28th NFL team since 1950 to start four quarterbacks in one season, per the Elias Sports Bureau. (The Vikings, who will start ex-Browns QB Nick Mullensin Week 15, will soon become No. 29.) This will continue an eventful stretch for a franchise that has experienced persistent issues staffing its QB spot since it rebooted in 1999.
The Browns became the first team since the 1976 49ers to trade three first-round picks for a veteran quarterback, but their Deshaun Watson blockbuster has not brought stability just yet. Watson followed up his suspension-marred season with one that brought steady injury trouble; the high-priced passer is out for the season, constructing the bridge to Flacco.
In addition to Watson and Flacco, Cleveland made a number of transactions at the sport’s highest-profile position since determining it would move on from Baker Mayfield last year. From the Watson trade to today’s Flacco move to the 53-man roster, here are the transactions the Browns have made at QB:
March 18, 2022
Traded 2022 first- and fourth-round picks, 2023 first- and third-round picks, 2024 first- and fourth-rounders to Texans forDeshaun Watson and 2024 sixth
Two different teams have held the No. 1 overall pick in consecutive years since 2017. Amid a radical rebuild effort, the Browns carried the top pick into the 2017 and ’18 drafts. The Jaguars did the same in 2021 and ’22. It is possible the Bears will follow that up in back-to-back years. The big difference here would be the Bears traded the 2023 top choice and may unload the 2024 top pick for another windfall, depending on their evaluation of Justin Fields.
The Bears and Panthers’ March trade, giving Carolina access to Bryce Young, has become a seminal moment for both teams. As it stands now, Chicago holds two top-five picks. The Panthers are 1-12, giving the Bears a two-game lead on the Patriots and Cardinals for the top slot with four games left. Chicago finishing with the first overall selection, providing access to the quarterback of its choice, would create a big-picture decision for a Bears team that already passed on the 2023 quarterback class to stick with Fields — a QB the Ryan Poles regime did not draft. North Carolina’s Drake Mayehas declared for the draft, while USC’s Caleb Williamsis widely expected to follow suit.
A new Cardinals regime is also evaluating its QB, though Kyler Murray‘s $46.1MM-per-year contract (which runs through 2028) will be much harder to escape compared to Fields’. This creates an interesting scenario that will have teams who do not land two-two draft slots monitoring how Chicago and Arizona proceed. The Patriots are widely expected to pursue a quarterback in the draft, and they are likely to do so withoutBill Belichick.
With gridlock forming in the AFC and NFC wild-card races, considerable movement will take place over the next month. The winner of the NFC South will likely lose several spots in the ’24 draft, as the Buccaneers did this year by winning the ’22 division title at 8-9. Here is how the draft order looks going into Week 15:
Disbanding a historically potent Travis Kelce–Tyreek Hill duo in March 2022, the Chiefs got by rather well last season. With JuJu Smith-Schuster approaching 1,000 yards and drawing the 2022 season’s defining holding penalty, Kansas City — with aid from a dominant Kelce season — withstood the Hill loss en route to its third Super Bowl title. The team’s second post-Hill receiving corps has been less useful, and the group’s output thus far has held this era’s most explosive offense back.
With Kelce in his age-34 season, the Chiefs entrusted an assortment of unproven options alongside the future first-ballot Hall of Famer. Kansas City’s offense still ranks fourth in DVOA, though it is 11th in scoring (after finishing no worse than sixth in any season during the Patrick Mahomes QB1 period). The Chiefs have also failed to score 20 points on five occasions this season; during Mahomes’ previous five seasons at the controls, the team had combined for just six such outings (h/t NFL.com).
In free agency, the Chiefs displayed interest in re-signing Smith-Schuster. But Andy Reid confirmed the team’s offer was not close to the Patriots’ three-year, $25.5MM ($16MM fully guaranteed) proposal. Although Smith-Schuster totaled 933 yards last season — by far the most among Chiefs wideouts — he has struggled to fill the Jakobi Meyers void in New England. Part of the reason for the Chiefs’ limited interest in Smith-Schuster: a belief Kadarius Toney could grow into a No. 1-caliber wide receiver with the benefit of a full offseason program. The 2022 trade acquisition has managed to put together his healthiest stretch in the NFL, missing just one game despite summer knee surgery, but the former Giants first-rounder has just 22 receptions for 139 yards while logging a 23% snap rate.
Letting Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman walk in free agency, the Chiefs inquired onOdell Beckham Jr. in March, after pursuing the talented but injury-riddled wideout in 2021 and ’22. But the Ravens’ $15MM guarantee abruptly closed that market. That deal also impacted the Chiefs’ trade talks with the Cardinals on DeAndre Hopkins.
The Chiefs and Bills had discussed terms with the Cards, but the OBJ guarantee nixed Hopkins’ interest in reworking his contract to facilitate a trade. The Chiefs later offered Hopkins an incentive-laden deal in free agency, joining the Patriots in doing so, while the Titans topped these proposals by giving the former All-Pro a $10.98MM guarantee on a two-year pact.
During Hopkins’ summer free agency stay, Kansas City had offered a $4MM base salary while including incentives that would have taken the contract to $10MM. By the time Hopkins became a free agent, the Chiefs had already used a chunk of their cap space to bring in left tackle Donovan Smith after the draft. No cap relief came from a Chris Jones extension — an offseason component Hopkins is believed to have factored into his free agency plan — with the All-Pro defensive tackle still headed toward free agency in 2024. Hopkins (774 yards, five touchdowns) has stayed healthy this season and is on pace for a seventh 1,000-yard year.
Kansas City did re-sign Justin Watson in April (two years, $3.4MM) and reacquired Hardman from the Jets in October. A former Buccaneers backup, Watson sits third in Chiefs receiving yards (332). Former second-round pick Skyy Moore, who had been expected to take a second-year leap, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling — in Year 2 of a three-year, $30MM accord — have joined Toney in offering inconsistency. Neither Moore nor Valdes-Scantling has topped 275 yards entering Week 14. This season represents a step back for MVS, who totaled 687 yards last year and topped 100 in the AFC championship game. Thanks largely to the Valdes-Scantling contract that features an $11MM 2023 cap number, the Chiefs rank 17th in wide receiver cap allocation this season.
The draft both brought failures and the team’s saving grace at receiver. After meeting with each of this class’ top receivers, the Chiefs attempted to trade up in Round 1. They had effectively done this in 2022, leapfrogging the Bills to draft Trent McDuffie. This year, the Chiefs were connected to Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison. Knowing of the Chiefs’ interest, the Ravens chose Flowers 22nd overall. Both Kansas City and New Orleans attempted to trade into Minnesota’s No. 23 slot, with Addison being the target amid the draft’s mid-first-round run on receivers. The Vikings stood pat and drafted Addison, who has shown immediate promise.
While the Chiefs ultimately settled for Rashee Riceat No. 50 overall, the SMU product’s development has been the clear silver lining. Rice’s 591 yards trail only Kelce for the defending champions, and after inconsistent usage during the season’s first half, the 6-foot-2 target has played at least 60% of the team’s offensive snaps in four of the past five games. Rice’s 8.4 yards after catch per reception trails only Deebo Samuel among wideouts this season, per Next Gen Stats.
Beyond Hardman, the Chiefs passed on bolstering their offense at the deadline. Results have remained choppy since, though Rice’s increased involvement has been a notable plot point. The team is expecting improvement from its young targets, per NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport. While questions regarding wideout viability will persist into the 2024 offseason, the Chiefs have at least one long-term box checked via Rice. With Kelce on the back nine of his remarkable career, the Chiefs’ 2024 receiver plan will become more important than what transpired this offseason.
After a number of what-ifs defined the Chiefs’ offseason at the position, it appears a certainty the perennial AFC West champions will make a more concerted effort to add aerial weaponry in 2024. But how this Chiefs contingent fares down the stretch this season will be a key AFC storyline.
With Week 13 underway, the picture at the top of the NFL draft board continues to become clearer. Plenty is yet to be determined with respect to the top of the order, however.
The Panthers’ ongoing struggles led to Frank Reich‘s firing, but the Bears own Carolina’s top pick this year due to the 2023 swap which landed Bryce Youngvia the No. 1 selection. Chicago being able to have the top pick once again – coupled with their own selection landing in the top-10 – would make the Bears a team to watch closely come April. The race for the top two or three slots (and, as such, the ability to draft QBs Caleb Williamsand Drake Maye, along with wideout Marvin Harrison Jr.) will also be a key late-season storyline for the Cardinals and Patriots.
The Commanders have lost three straight games, overshadowing a promising season from first-year starter Sam Howell. After deciding to move on from defensive ends Chase Youngand Montez Sweatat the trade deadline, the team’s defense has continued to struggle. DC Jack Del Rio is out as a result, and head coach Ron Rivera‘s position is not believed to be on strong footing. A top-five pick could make the job in Washington more attractive presuming a opening arises this offseason.
For non-playoff teams, the draft order will be determined by the inverted 2024 standings — plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule — with playoff squads being slotted by their postseason outcome and regular-season record. Here is an updated look at the current draft order:
November 21st, 2023 at 11:18am CST by Sam Robinson
Through 11 weeks, this NFL season has not produced an MVP favorite. Oddsmakers have slotted a number of usual suspects as frontrunners, but the stretch run will be important to generating a lead candidate.
No non-quarterback has won this award since Adrian Peterson‘s 2,097-yard rushing season edged Peyton Manning‘s Broncos debut in 2012, though J.J. Watt did finish second in voting in 2014. A quarterback will be expected to claim the honors this season, but that player has not declared himself just yet.
Two of the favorites faced off Monday night, with Jalen Hurts‘ Eagles besting the Chiefs in a Super Bowl LVII rematch. The Chiefs stifled Hurts for much of Philadelphia’s 21-17 win, but the dual-threat passer came through late. He is also the quarterback on the NFL’s only one-loss team. Hurts would have represented a strong MVP challenger to Patrick Mahomes last year, but a late-season shoulder injury led to the Chiefs superstar pulling away. QBR ranks the Super Bowl LVII QBs fifth and sixth, respectively, with Mahomes slipping to No. 5 after Kansas City’s loss.
After Hurts’ breakthrough 2022, the Eagles gave the fourth-year QB a then-record five-year, $255MM extension — one that set the market for Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow. Hurts has accounted for 24 touchdowns — nine on the ground, as he makes a case as the most unstoppable short-yardage QB rusher in NFL history — and has upped his completion percentage (68.5) from 2022.
Mahomes responded to the Tyreek Hill trade by notching the first MVP-Super Bowl MVP since Kurt Warner in 1999, and the Chiefs updated his contract to fall in line with the market Hurts helped set. Kansas City, however, has seen its oft-questioned wide receiver setup play a big role in both its home losses this year. Mahomes ranks 20th in yards per attempt, at 6.9; he cleared eight in each of his two MVP campaigns. With Travis Kelce in his age-34 season, will the seventh-year QB be able to overcome a suspect receiver setup?
Brock Purdy is leading the NFL (by a wide margin, at 9.7) in yards per attempt. After a midseason slump, Purdy has put together two strong games. He accomplished the 49ers’ first perfect passer rating in a game since 1989. Last year’s Mr. Irrelevant has been a revelation for the 49ers, who have his seventh-round contract on the books through 2025. Purdy also leads the league in QBR, providing an efficient season while blessed with an elite skill-position corps. Although this skill group could end up working against Purdy, he would become the most unlikely MVP since Warner.
No. 2 in QBR, Dak Prescott has put together a strong stretch since the Cowboys endured a blowout loss in San Francisco. After four straight one-touchdown showings, the eighth-year Cowboys starter has 13 TD tosses over his past four games. At this pace, the 30-year-old passer will be in position for another monster contract. With the franchise tag off the table and a $59MM cap hit awaiting in his 2024 contract year, Prescott is in one of the most player-friendly extension positions in league history.
Jackson sits ninth in QBR but has the Ravens perched as the AFC’s top seed for the time being. Given a $52MM-per-year deal that differed from his peers’ 2023 re-ups — in that it contains no extra years of control due to it coming after a Ravens franchise tag — Jackson is still operating a run-oriented offense. His 12 touchdown passes rank 16th, though his yards per attempt (8.1) and completion rate (69.5) figures are in the top six. Among this year’s contenders, Jackson joins Mahomes as the only former MVPs.
No rookie has claimed this award since Jim Brown in 1957, but this particular season does keep the door slightly ajar for C.J. Stroud. Almost no one expected the Texans to be in the playoff race, and the team sweeping the Jaguars would move an AFC South title closer to reality. Stroud has run away with the Offensive Rookie of the Year race, doing so despite numerous O-line injuries. The No. 2 overall pick’s 2,962 passing yards sit second, but QBR places the Ohio State product 12th. Stroud’s three-INT game against the Cardinals hurt his cause, but the Houston rookie still has some time to make a historic push.
While Jared Goff (seventh in QBR) was once the throw-in in a trade that keyed a Matthew Stafford-led Rams Super Bowl charge, the Lions are 8-2 for the first time in 61 years. Detroit is 1-2 against teams with winning records, but a favorable schedule down the stretch stands to allow Goff — in Year 2 with OC Ben Johnson running the show — to make a case. The Lions ending up with home-field advantage in the NFC would obviously strengthen the former No. 1 overall pick’s cause. Regardless, the 29-year-old QB has moved into position for a lucrative Lions extension.
How the AFC East plays out stands to produce a contender. Although Josh Allen‘s turnover issues helped lead the Bills to fire OC Ken Dorsey, the sixth-year superstar leads the NFL with 22 TD passes (while pacing the league with 12 picks) while adding seven more scores on the ground. Tua Tagovailoa ranks just 10th in QBR — six spots behind Allen — and the Dolphins have fallen short in matchups against the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles. That said, the Bills have five losses to the Dolphins’ three. Miami first-place scoring ranking will obviously benefit its ascending passer, though Tua could conceivably split votes with Hill.
No wide receiver has ever won MVP acclaim, and Hill’s off-field history will not help his case. But his impact on the Dolphins has been undeniable. The former Chiefs speed merchant has changed Tagovailoa’s career trajectory, and the eighth-year wideout leads the NFL with 1,222 receiving yards — in front by 209 — despite the Dolphins already resting during a bye week. While Jerry Rice and Calvin Johnson could not parlay their receiving yardage records into MVP honors — respectively losing out to Brett Favre (1995) and Peterson (2012) — this QB pace persisting would stand to keep Hill going. Christian McCaffrey also makes sense as a candidate. His midseason 2022 arrival catalyzed the 49ers, and despite missing a game, the ex-Panthers extension recipient leads the NFL with 825 rushing yards. No other RB has posted more than 700, and this would obviously be an interesting year to see a running back emerge as a true MVP candidate.
Could this be the year a defender sneaks through? Only Alan Page and Lawrence Taylor have done so, but with no QB residing as a clear frontrunner, is a door ajar for Myles Garrett or T.J. Watt powering offensively limited teams? Is there an off-grid player who shapes up as a late-season threat? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on the race in the comments section.
After a 2022 rule change, teams can activate up to eight players from injured reserve. That has reintroduced some strategy into how franchises proceed with their activations, and teams will again need to be cognizant of their activation counts in 2023.
The NFL had reintroduced IR-return options in the 2010s, after a period in which an IR move meant a player’s season was over. But the COVID-19 pandemic prompted the league to loosen restrictions on IR from 2020-21. Teams were permitted to use unlimited activations to start the decade, but roster math is again a consideration.
Players who land on IR after cutdown day must miss at least four games. Once a team designates a player for return, the activation clock starts. Clubs have 21 days from a player’s return-to-practice date to activate that player. If no activation commences in that window, the player reverts to season-ending IR.
Here is how the NFL’s remaining two IR situations look for Super Bowl LVIII:
November 10th, 2023 at 10:05pm CST by Sam Robinson
Divisions have produced four playoff teams previously. The 1994 NFC Central sent every team but the Buccaneers to the postseason, while the 1998 AFC East moved every team but the Colts — in Peyton Manning‘s rookie season — into that year’s playoff field. (The NFC Central also accomplished this in 1982, but eight teams made each conference’s field due to the strike-induced format change.) The NFL realigning its divisions, killing the five-team divisional setup, in 2002 made it impossible for four teams in one quartet to venture to the playoffs. The 2020 expansion to a 14-team postseason field, however, reopened that door.
Entering Week 10, the AFC’s seven-team “if the season ended today” field would consist of the division-leading Chiefs, Jaguars and Dolphins, along with the fourth North-division clubs. No other division features more than two teams with winning records; the AFC North carries four. This is shaping up to be one of the most interesting divisional stretch runs in modern NFL history.
The Ravens lead the way at 7-2 and hold a runaway DVOA lead on the rest of the NFL. Baltimore’s defense leads the league in points allowed and paces the NFL in sacks — by four — with 35. The Ravens’ summer additions of Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy have paid dividends. Clowney’s 11 QB hits trail only Justin Madubuike‘s 14, while Van Noy now has at least five sacks in six of the past seven seasons. The veteran linebacker has managed to get there despite being signed in late September. Van Noy, 32, is on a one-year, $1.6MM deal; Clowney, 30, signed for one year and $2.5MM. The team’s $20MM-per-yearRoquan Smith extension is paying off early; Pro Football Focus ranks the ex-Bears top-10 pick fourth among off-ball linebackers.
QBR slots Lamar Jackson 11th, and the Ravens remain a run-oriented team. Though, Jackson is operating efficiently in Todd Monken‘s offense. The team’s remaining schedule resides as the NFL’s second-toughest — in part because of the AFC North games remaining — though the squad with the hardest slate remaining may be the Ravens’ top competitor for this hotly contested crown.
Joe Burrow‘s return to full strength has reinvigorated the Bengals, who made the fourth-year passer the NFL’s highest-paid player. After the Ravens and Chargers incrementally moved the AAV bar following the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts extension, the Bengals slid it to $55MM for Burrow. The superstar passer is back in form, leading Cincinnati to four straight wins. The Bengals (5-3) have now downed the 49ers and Bills on the road, but Tankathon slots their remaining schedule as by far the most difficult. Trips to Kansas City and Jacksonville remain, but the two-time reigning AFC North champs are surging at midseason, aiming to turn another 0-2 start into a playoff home game.
Moving forward without Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell, the Bengals have not seen their safety setup match Bates’ Falcons work. Then again, the team was not exactly expecting that, given Bates’ talent and $16MM-per-year price tag. Cincinnati keeping its linebacker tandem (Logan Wilson–Germaine Pratt) together has provided considerable help, though the team continues to run into injury trouble on offense. The Bengals faced the Ravens during Burrow’s early-season health issue, losing at home and raising the stakes for the sides’ Thursday-night tilt in Week 11.
The most notable improvement by an AFC North unit comes in Cleveland, where the Jim Schwartz DC hire is looking like one of the best assistant additions in recent memory. The Browns have gone from a miscommunication-plagued defense to one that is producing dominant efforts. The Browns held the Cardinals to 57 total yards, the team’s fewest since 1955, and has seen Myles Garrett (9.5 sacks) become a Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner (and surefire candidate for a market-setting second extension). Offseason adds Za’Darius Smith and Ogbonnia Okoronkwo have boosted the Browns as well, and Cleveland’s elite pass defense led to the 5-3 mark amid the Deshaun Watson shoulder saga.
The highly paid quarterback returned in Week 9 but has still not closely resembled his Houston version, with the off-field issues that produced a historic hiatus still impacting the former Pro Bowler’s trajectory. As the Browns’ defense leads the NFL in DVOA, its offense ranks 28th. Watson’s rotator cuff issue will be a key divisional subplot, and the team seeing both tackles joinNick Chubb on IR will make matters tougher. But Cleveland’s defense is providing a strong safety net thus far.
Also 5-3, the Steelers rank 14th in DVOA. Punching-bag OC Matt Canada continues to draw heat, with Pittsburgh’s defense also carrying an inconsistent offense. The Steelers have notched home wins over the Browns and Ravens — even as their streak without 400 total yards has reached 56 games. Kenny Pickett sits 27th in QBR, but the team has been without Pat Freiermuth and Diontae Johnson for chunks of the season. That has not stopped calls for Canada’s ouster, as the 2022 first-round QB’s work down the stretch will help determine how the Steelers see the Pitt product in the long term.
Who will end up winning this captivating race? The Bengals and Steelers still have four divisional games left, the Browns and Ravens three. How many playoff teams will this division produce? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.
Yesterday’s Panthers-Bears game carried signficant draft implications, as many noted in the build-up to the primetime matchup. With Carolina having dealt its 2024 first-round pick to Chicago as part of the deal involving last year’s No. 1 selection, the Bears were able to boost their chances of picking first in April with a win.
Owning the top selection in a draft touted for having multiple high-end options at the quarterback spot would of course add further to the speculation surrounding Justin Fields. The Bears gave the 24-year-old a vote of confidence last spring by trading out of the No. 1 slot, but he has yet to develop as hoped this season. Chicago could opt for a fresh start under center (particularly if they declined Fields’ fifth-year option) this spring while also having the opportunity to add help elsewhere on the roster with their own first-rounder, which seems destined to fall within the top 10 or perhaps even top five selections.
Of course, teams like the Giants, Cardinals and Patriots have experienced signficant troubles of their own this year. A continuation of their first half performances could leave them in pole position for the Caleb Williams–Drake Mayesweepstakes. All three teams face potential uncertainty with respect to their current passers’ futures, despite each having term remaining on their respective contracts.
For non-playoff teams, the draft order will be determined by the inverted 2024 standings — plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule — with playoff squads being slotted by their postseason outcome and regular-season record. With plenty still to be sorted out over the coming months, here is an early look at the current draft order:
