With Week 13 underway, the picture at the top of the NFL draft board continues to become clearer. Plenty is yet to be determined with respect to the top of the order, however.
The Panthers’ ongoing struggles led to Frank Reich‘s firing, but the Bears own Carolina’s top pick this year due to the 2023 swap which landed Bryce Youngvia the No. 1 selection. Chicago being able to have the top pick once again – coupled with their own selection landing in the top-10 – would make the Bears a team to watch closely come April. The race for the top two or three slots (and, as such, the ability to draft QBs Caleb Williamsand Drake Maye, along with wideout Marvin Harrison Jr.) will also be a key late-season storyline for the Cardinals and Patriots.
The Commanders have lost three straight games, overshadowing a promising season from first-year starter Sam Howell. After deciding to move on from defensive ends Chase Youngand Montez Sweatat the trade deadline, the team’s defense has continued to struggle. DC Jack Del Rio is out as a result, and head coach Ron Rivera‘s position is not believed to be on strong footing. A top-five pick could make the job in Washington more attractive presuming a opening arises this offseason.
For non-playoff teams, the draft order will be determined by the inverted 2024 standings — plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule — with playoff squads being slotted by their postseason outcome and regular-season record. Here is an updated look at the current draft order:
November 21st, 2023 at 11:18am CST by Sam Robinson
Through 11 weeks, this NFL season has not produced an MVP favorite. Oddsmakers have slotted a number of usual suspects as frontrunners, but the stretch run will be important to generating a lead candidate.
No non-quarterback has won this award since Adrian Peterson‘s 2,097-yard rushing season edged Peyton Manning‘s Broncos debut in 2012, though J.J. Watt did finish second in voting in 2014. A quarterback will be expected to claim the honors this season, but that player has not declared himself just yet.
Two of the favorites faced off Monday night, with Jalen Hurts‘ Eagles besting the Chiefs in a Super Bowl LVII rematch. The Chiefs stifled Hurts for much of Philadelphia’s 21-17 win, but the dual-threat passer came through late. He is also the quarterback on the NFL’s only one-loss team. Hurts would have represented a strong MVP challenger to Patrick Mahomes last year, but a late-season shoulder injury led to the Chiefs superstar pulling away. QBR ranks the Super Bowl LVII QBs fifth and sixth, respectively, with Mahomes slipping to No. 5 after Kansas City’s loss.
After Hurts’ breakthrough 2022, the Eagles gave the fourth-year QB a then-record five-year, $255MM extension — one that set the market for Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow. Hurts has accounted for 24 touchdowns — nine on the ground, as he makes a case as the most unstoppable short-yardage QB rusher in NFL history — and has upped his completion percentage (68.5) from 2022.
Mahomes responded to the Tyreek Hill trade by notching the first MVP-Super Bowl MVP since Kurt Warner in 1999, and the Chiefs updated his contract to fall in line with the market Hurts helped set. Kansas City, however, has seen its oft-questioned wide receiver setup play a big role in both its home losses this year. Mahomes ranks 20th in yards per attempt, at 6.9; he cleared eight in each of his two MVP campaigns. With Travis Kelce in his age-34 season, will the seventh-year QB be able to overcome a suspect receiver setup?
Brock Purdy is leading the NFL (by a wide margin, at 9.7) in yards per attempt. After a midseason slump, Purdy has put together two strong games. He accomplished the 49ers’ first perfect passer rating in a game since 1989. Last year’s Mr. Irrelevant has been a revelation for the 49ers, who have his seventh-round contract on the books through 2025. Purdy also leads the league in QBR, providing an efficient season while blessed with an elite skill-position corps. Although this skill group could end up working against Purdy, he would become the most unlikely MVP since Warner.
No. 2 in QBR, Dak Prescott has put together a strong stretch since the Cowboys endured a blowout loss in San Francisco. After four straight one-touchdown showings, the eighth-year Cowboys starter has 13 TD tosses over his past four games. At this pace, the 30-year-old passer will be in position for another monster contract. With the franchise tag off the table and a $59MM cap hit awaiting in his 2024 contract year, Prescott is in one of the most player-friendly extension positions in league history.
Jackson sits ninth in QBR but has the Ravens perched as the AFC’s top seed for the time being. Given a $52MM-per-year deal that differed from his peers’ 2023 re-ups — in that it contains no extra years of control due to it coming after a Ravens franchise tag — Jackson is still operating a run-oriented offense. His 12 touchdown passes rank 16th, though his yards per attempt (8.1) and completion rate (69.5) figures are in the top six. Among this year’s contenders, Jackson joins Mahomes as the only former MVPs.
No rookie has claimed this award since Jim Brown in 1957, but this particular season does keep the door slightly ajar for C.J. Stroud. Almost no one expected the Texans to be in the playoff race, and the team sweeping the Jaguars would move an AFC South title closer to reality. Stroud has run away with the Offensive Rookie of the Year race, doing so despite numerous O-line injuries. The No. 2 overall pick’s 2,962 passing yards sit second, but QBR places the Ohio State product 12th. Stroud’s three-INT game against the Cardinals hurt his cause, but the Houston rookie still has some time to make a historic push.
While Jared Goff (seventh in QBR) was once the throw-in in a trade that keyed a Matthew Stafford-led Rams Super Bowl charge, the Lions are 8-2 for the first time in 61 years. Detroit is 1-2 against teams with winning records, but a favorable schedule down the stretch stands to allow Goff — in Year 2 with OC Ben Johnson running the show — to make a case. The Lions ending up with home-field advantage in the NFC would obviously strengthen the former No. 1 overall pick’s cause. Regardless, the 29-year-old QB has moved into position for a lucrative Lions extension.
How the AFC East plays out stands to produce a contender. Although Josh Allen‘s turnover issues helped lead the Bills to fire OC Ken Dorsey, the sixth-year superstar leads the NFL with 22 TD passes (while pacing the league with 12 picks) while adding seven more scores on the ground. Tua Tagovailoa ranks just 10th in QBR — six spots behind Allen — and the Dolphins have fallen short in matchups against the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles. That said, the Bills have five losses to the Dolphins’ three. Miami first-place scoring ranking will obviously benefit its ascending passer, though Tua could conceivably split votes with Hill.
No wide receiver has ever won MVP acclaim, and Hill’s off-field history will not help his case. But his impact on the Dolphins has been undeniable. The former Chiefs speed merchant has changed Tagovailoa’s career trajectory, and the eighth-year wideout leads the NFL with 1,222 receiving yards — in front by 209 — despite the Dolphins already resting during a bye week. While Jerry Rice and Calvin Johnson could not parlay their receiving yardage records into MVP honors — respectively losing out to Brett Favre (1995) and Peterson (2012) — this QB pace persisting would stand to keep Hill going. Christian McCaffrey also makes sense as a candidate. His midseason 2022 arrival catalyzed the 49ers, and despite missing a game, the ex-Panthers extension recipient leads the NFL with 825 rushing yards. No other RB has posted more than 700, and this would obviously be an interesting year to see a running back emerge as a true MVP candidate.
Could this be the year a defender sneaks through? Only Alan Page and Lawrence Taylor have done so, but with no QB residing as a clear frontrunner, is a door ajar for Myles Garrett or T.J. Watt powering offensively limited teams? Is there an off-grid player who shapes up as a late-season threat? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on the race in the comments section.
After a 2022 rule change, teams can activate up to eight players from injured reserve. That has reintroduced some strategy into how franchises proceed with their activations, and teams will again need to be cognizant of their activation counts in 2023.
The NFL had reintroduced IR-return options in the 2010s, after a period in which an IR move meant a player’s season was over. But the COVID-19 pandemic prompted the league to loosen restrictions on IR from 2020-21. Teams were permitted to use unlimited activations to start the decade, but roster math is again a consideration.
Players who land on IR after cutdown day must miss at least four games. Once a team designates a player for return, the activation clock starts. Clubs have 21 days from a player’s return-to-practice date to activate that player. If no activation commences in that window, the player reverts to season-ending IR.
Here is how the NFL’s remaining two IR situations look for Super Bowl LVIII:
November 10th, 2023 at 10:05pm CST by Sam Robinson
Divisions have produced four playoff teams previously. The 1994 NFC Central sent every team but the Buccaneers to the postseason, while the 1998 AFC East moved every team but the Colts — in Peyton Manning‘s rookie season — into that year’s playoff field. (The NFC Central also accomplished this in 1982, but eight teams made each conference’s field due to the strike-induced format change.) The NFL realigning its divisions, killing the five-team divisional setup, in 2002 made it impossible for four teams in one quartet to venture to the playoffs. The 2020 expansion to a 14-team postseason field, however, reopened that door.
Entering Week 10, the AFC’s seven-team “if the season ended today” field would consist of the division-leading Chiefs, Jaguars and Dolphins, along with the fourth North-division clubs. No other division features more than two teams with winning records; the AFC North carries four. This is shaping up to be one of the most interesting divisional stretch runs in modern NFL history.
The Ravens lead the way at 7-2 and hold a runaway DVOA lead on the rest of the NFL. Baltimore’s defense leads the league in points allowed and paces the NFL in sacks — by four — with 35. The Ravens’ summer additions of Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy have paid dividends. Clowney’s 11 QB hits trail only Justin Madubuike‘s 14, while Van Noy now has at least five sacks in six of the past seven seasons. The veteran linebacker has managed to get there despite being signed in late September. Van Noy, 32, is on a one-year, $1.6MM deal; Clowney, 30, signed for one year and $2.5MM. The team’s $20MM-per-yearRoquan Smith extension is paying off early; Pro Football Focus ranks the ex-Bears top-10 pick fourth among off-ball linebackers.
QBR slots Lamar Jackson 11th, and the Ravens remain a run-oriented team. Though, Jackson is operating efficiently in Todd Monken‘s offense. The team’s remaining schedule resides as the NFL’s second-toughest — in part because of the AFC North games remaining — though the squad with the hardest slate remaining may be the Ravens’ top competitor for this hotly contested crown.
Joe Burrow‘s return to full strength has reinvigorated the Bengals, who made the fourth-year passer the NFL’s highest-paid player. After the Ravens and Chargers incrementally moved the AAV bar following the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts extension, the Bengals slid it to $55MM for Burrow. The superstar passer is back in form, leading Cincinnati to four straight wins. The Bengals (5-3) have now downed the 49ers and Bills on the road, but Tankathon slots their remaining schedule as by far the most difficult. Trips to Kansas City and Jacksonville remain, but the two-time reigning AFC North champs are surging at midseason, aiming to turn another 0-2 start into a playoff home game.
Moving forward without Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell, the Bengals have not seen their safety setup match Bates’ Falcons work. Then again, the team was not exactly expecting that, given Bates’ talent and $16MM-per-year price tag. Cincinnati keeping its linebacker tandem (Logan Wilson–Germaine Pratt) together has provided considerable help, though the team continues to run into injury trouble on offense. The Bengals faced the Ravens during Burrow’s early-season health issue, losing at home and raising the stakes for the sides’ Thursday-night tilt in Week 11.
The most notable improvement by an AFC North unit comes in Cleveland, where the Jim Schwartz DC hire is looking like one of the best assistant additions in recent memory. The Browns have gone from a miscommunication-plagued defense to one that is producing dominant efforts. The Browns held the Cardinals to 57 total yards, the team’s fewest since 1955, and has seen Myles Garrett (9.5 sacks) become a Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner (and surefire candidate for a market-setting second extension). Offseason adds Za’Darius Smith and Ogbonnia Okoronkwo have boosted the Browns as well, and Cleveland’s elite pass defense led to the 5-3 mark amid the Deshaun Watson shoulder saga.
The highly paid quarterback returned in Week 9 but has still not closely resembled his Houston version, with the off-field issues that produced a historic hiatus still impacting the former Pro Bowler’s trajectory. As the Browns’ defense leads the NFL in DVOA, its offense ranks 28th. Watson’s rotator cuff issue will be a key divisional subplot, and the team seeing both tackles joinNick Chubb on IR will make matters tougher. But Cleveland’s defense is providing a strong safety net thus far.
Also 5-3, the Steelers rank 14th in DVOA. Punching-bag OC Matt Canada continues to draw heat, with Pittsburgh’s defense also carrying an inconsistent offense. The Steelers have notched home wins over the Browns and Ravens — even as their streak without 400 total yards has reached 56 games. Kenny Pickett sits 27th in QBR, but the team has been without Pat Freiermuth and Diontae Johnson for chunks of the season. That has not stopped calls for Canada’s ouster, as the 2022 first-round QB’s work down the stretch will help determine how the Steelers see the Pitt product in the long term.
Who will end up winning this captivating race? The Bengals and Steelers still have four divisional games left, the Browns and Ravens three. How many playoff teams will this division produce? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.
Yesterday’s Panthers-Bears game carried signficant draft implications, as many noted in the build-up to the primetime matchup. With Carolina having dealt its 2024 first-round pick to Chicago as part of the deal involving last year’s No. 1 selection, the Bears were able to boost their chances of picking first in April with a win.
Owning the top selection in a draft touted for having multiple high-end options at the quarterback spot would of course add further to the speculation surrounding Justin Fields. The Bears gave the 24-year-old a vote of confidence last spring by trading out of the No. 1 slot, but he has yet to develop as hoped this season. Chicago could opt for a fresh start under center (particularly if they declined Fields’ fifth-year option) this spring while also having the opportunity to add help elsewhere on the roster with their own first-rounder, which seems destined to fall within the top 10 or perhaps even top five selections.
Of course, teams like the Giants, Cardinals and Patriots have experienced signficant troubles of their own this year. A continuation of their first half performances could leave them in pole position for the Caleb Williams–Drake Mayesweepstakes. All three teams face potential uncertainty with respect to their current passers’ futures, despite each having term remaining on their respective contracts.
For non-playoff teams, the draft order will be determined by the inverted 2024 standings — plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule — with playoff squads being slotted by their postseason outcome and regular-season record. With plenty still to be sorted out over the coming months, here is an early look at the current draft order:
A week removed from this year’s trade deadline, every team will soon have its acquired talent in uniform. The 49ers, Lions and Jaguars made trades while in bye weeks; Chase Young, Donovan Peoples-Jones and Ezra Cleveland will suit up for their new teams soon.
On this note, it is time to gauge the position every notable buyer and seller landed in following the deals. This year’s deadline featured two second-round picks being moved, though the teams that made those moves (Chicago, Seattle) have different timelines in place.
We have to start with the Commanders, who scrapped their yearslong Young-Montez Sweatpartnership by making the surprise decision to move both defensive ends hours before the deadline. Although the team was listening to offers on both, it was widely assumed they would only part with one, thus saving a contract offer or a 2024 franchise tag for the other alongside well-paid D-tackles Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen. New owner Josh Harris looks to have made his bigger-picture plan clear, however, pressing upon the Commanders’ football-ops department to explore moving both.
Washington collected a second-rounder that likely will land in the 30s in exchange for Sweat, who was in a contract year at the time. It only obtained a compensatory third for Young, who drew interest from other teams (including the Ravens). For the first time in the common draft era, Washington holds five picks in the first three rounds. It cannot be assumed Ron Rivera and GM Martin Mayhew will be making those picks, but Harris has effectively forced his hot-seat staffers to make do this season without Young and Sweat, who have combined for 11.5 sacks this year.
The initial team to pounce on the Commanders’ sale made a buyer’s move despite being in a seller’s position for the second straight year. After trading what became the No. 32 overall pick for Chase Claypool, GM Ryan Poles signed off on the Sweat pickup. The Bears have struggled to rush the passer under Matt Eberflus, having traded Khalil Mack in March 2022 and Robert Quinn last October. While acquiring a veteran in a contract year injects risk into the equation, Poles had the franchise tag at his disposal. But the Bears made good use of their newfound negotiating rights with Sweat, extending him on a four-year, $98MM pact. Despite no Pro Bowls or double-digit sack seasons, Sweat is now the NFL’s fifth-highest-paid edge rusher. Though, the Bears’ long-term edge outlook appears rosier compared to its pre-Halloween view.
Mayhew, Robert Saleh and Mike McDaniel have provided third-round compensatory picks for the 49ers, who have been the NFL’s chief beneficiary of the Rooney Rule tweak that awards third-round picks to teams who see minority coaches or execs become HCs or GMs. The team has more picks coming after the Ran Carthon and DeMeco Ryans hires. Using one to acquire Young seems like a low-risk move, given the former Defensive Rookie of the Year’s talent. Young has made strides toward recapturing the form he showed before his severe 2021 knee injury, and he is on pace for a career high in sacks.
The 49ers, who won last year’s trade deadline by landingChristian McCaffrey, will deploy Young alongside ex-college teammate Nick Bosa and the rest of their high-priced D-line contingent. The team will have a decision to make on Young soon; the free agent-to-be is not eyeing in-season extension talks, either. San Francisco could at least be in position to nab a midround compensatory pick, should Young leave in 2024.
The Young move came a day after the Seahawks obtained Leonard Williams from the Giants. That move cost Seattle second- and fifth-round picks. Williams is also in a contract year, but with the Giants picking up most of the tab, Seattle has the veteran D-tackle on its cap sheet at $647K. The former Jets top-10 pick has shown consistent ability to provide inside pressure, and the USC alum’s best work came in his previous contract year (2020). Gunning for another big payday, Williams joins Dre’Mont Jones in what is probably the best interior D-line duo of the Seahawks’ Pete Carroll era.
Seattle still surrendered a second-round pick for a player who could be a rental. Williams cannot realistically be franchise-tagged in 2024, with the Giants tagging him in 2020 and ’21, and he is not yet on Seattle’s extension radar. The Giants have already paid Dexter Lawrence and were planning on letting Williams walk. They passed on a comp pick for the trade haul, effectively buying a second-round pick in the way the Broncos did in the 2021 Von Miller trade. The Giants, who suddenly could be in the market for a 2024 QB addition, now have an additional second-rounder at their disposal.
While they made their move a week before the deadline, the Eagles landed the most accomplished player of this year’s in-season trade crop. Kevin Byard is a two-time first-team All-Pro safety, and although he is in his age-30 season, the former third-round pick is signed through 2024. The Eagles sent the Titans fifth- and sixth-round picks (and Terrell Edmunds) for Byard, a Philadelphia native, marking the team’s second splash trade for a safety in two years. Philly’s C.J. Gardner-Johnson swap turned out well, and Byard not being a pure rental could make this a better move.
Rather than turning to a fifth-round rookie, the Vikings acquired Josh Dobbs in a pick swap involving sixth- and/or seventh-rounders and saw the move translate to a surprising Week 9 win. Dobbs following in Baker Mayfield‘s footsteps as a trade acquisition-turned-immediate starter also made him the rare QB to see extensive action for two teams in two weeks; Mayfield was inactive in his final game as a Panther. The well-traveled Dobbs could give the Vikings a better chance to stay afloat in the NFC playoff race.
The Lions (Peoples-Jones), Jaguars (Cleveland) and Bills (Rasul Douglas) also made buyer’s moves at the deadline. The Bills gave the Packers a third-round pick, collecting a fifth in the pick-swap deal, for Douglas. They will hope the Green Bay starter can help stabilize their cornerback corps after Tre’Davious White‘s second major injury.
Who ended up faring the best at this year’s deadline? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on this year’s moves in the comments section.
The 2023 NFL trading period is now over. Dozens of trades — some in the roster-reshaping mold, others executed for depth purposes — ended up coming to pass. Since the NFL moved its trade deadline from Week 6 to Week 8 in 2012, trades have gradually become a more important part of the league’s roster builds.
An argument can be made the NFL should move its deadline deeper into the season, as the MLB, NBA and NHL deadlines come after the midpoint. The NFL moving to a 17-game/18-week slate in 2021, after 43 years at 16 games, also factors into this line of thinking. For now, the league will still force its buyers and sellers to assess their teams fully by Week 8.
To gauge the value of the moves teams have made, here are the trades completed across the league in 2023. (Note: only trades involving veteran players, as opposed to draft-weekend deals only involving picks, are listed here.)
Bears send Panthers No. 1 overall pick in exchange for No. 9, No. 61, a 2024 first-rounder and 2025 second
The Panthers chose Bryce Young first overall; the Bears traded down from No. 9 to No. 19, drafting tackle Darnell Wright. Trading up from No. 61 to No. 56, Chicago chose cornerback Tyrique Stevenson.
Houston used the No. 230 pick in a package to trade up for center Juice Scruggs in Round 2; Tampa Bay packaged No. 179 to move up for guard Cody Mauch in Round 2
The Rams agreed to pay $5MM of Robinson’s 2023 salary. At No. 234, the Rams chose cornerback Jason Taylor II; at 251, the Steelers selected offensive lineman Spencer Anderson.
April 24
Packers send QB Aaron Rodgers, Nos. 15, 170 to Jets for Nos. 13, 42, 207, conditional 2024 second-round pick
Rodgers needed to play 65% of the Jets’ 2023 offensive snaps for the 2024 pick to become a first-rounder; his Week 1 Achilles tear will prevent that from happening. At No. 13, the Packers chose pass rusher Lukas Van Ness; at 15, the Jets took defensive end Will McDonald. At Nos. 42 and 207, Green Bay respectively chose tight end Luke Musgrave and kicker Anders Carlson. The Jets moved down from No. 170, picking up an additional seventh-round pick.
Jets move WR Denzel Mims, 2025 seventh-round pick to Lions for conditional 2025 sixth-rounder
Mims needed to make the Lions’ 53-man roster for the pick to convey. With the Lions cutting Mims with an injury settlement in August, the Jets will not end up receiving a pick in this trade.
The countdown to this year’s October 31 trade deadline continues, and a number of deals have already been made. More will follow in the coming days, though, as contending teams look to bolster their rosters for the stretch run and sellers seek to offload expiring contracts and gain future draft assets. Much will be driven, of course, by each squad’s financial situation.
Courtesy of Over the Cap, here’s a breakdown of every team’s cap space in advance of the deadline:
San Francisco 49ers: $39.89MM
Cleveland Browns: $33.99MM
Arizona Cardinals: $11.1MM
Cincinnati Bengals: $10.78MM
Tennessee Titans: $10.55MM
Las Vegas Raiders: $9.16MM
Chicago Bears: $9.06MM
Los Angeles Chargers: $9.05MM
Indianapolis Colts: $8.78MM
Minnesota Vikings: $7.96MM
Green Bay Packers: $7.55MM
New York Jets: $7.17MM
Seattle Seahawks: $7.16MM
Carolina Panthers: $7.07MM
Dallas Cowboys: $7.03MM
Baltimore Ravens: $6.83MM
Atlanta Falcons: $6.76MM
Detroit Lions: $6.62MM
Jacksonville Jaguars: $6.42MM
New Orleans Saints: $4.67MM
Buffalo Bills: $4.58MM
Los Angeles Rams: $4.37MM
Houston Texans: $4.26MM
Washington Commanders: $3.78MM
Kansas City Chiefs: $3.7MM
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: $3.63MM
Miami Dolphins: $3.49MM
New England Patriots: $2.87MM
Philadelphia Eagles: $2.81MM
Pittsburgh Steelers: $2.55MM
Denver Broncos: $1.22MM
New York Giants: $991K
The 49ers have carried considerable space throughout the season, but general manager John Lynch made it clear last month the team’s intention was to roll over most of their funds into next season. Still, with San Francisco sitting at 5-2 on the year, it would come as little surprise if at least one more depth addition (separate from the Randy Gregorymove) were to be made in the near future.
Deals involving pick swaps for role players dominated the trade landscape for some time, but more noteworthy contributors have been connected to a potential swap recently. One of them – Titans safety Kevin Byard– has already been dealt. That has led to speculation Tennessee is open to dealing other big names as they look to 2024. Derrick Henry’s name has come up multiple times with respect to a deal sending him out of Nashville, but that now seems unlikely.
Several edge rushers are on the market, including Danielle Hunter(Vikings) and one or both of Montez Sweatand Chase Young(Commanders). Hunter nearly found himself with the Jaguars this offseason, and last year’s AFC South winners could be on the lookout for a pass rush boost. A mid-level addition in that regard would come as little surprise. In Minnesota and Washington’s case, however, it remains to be seen if they will be true sellers given their 3-4 records heading into tomorrow’s action.
A number of receivers could also be on the move soon. Both the Broncos’ pair of Jerry Jeudyand Courtland Suttonand the Panthers’ Terrace Marshallhave been involved heavily in trade talk. Jeudy and Sutton are on the books at an eight figure price tag next season, and the Broncos are unlikely to receive the draft capital they could have at prior points in their Denver tenures. Marshall, by contrast, is in the third season of his four-year rookie contract and could fit more comfortably into an acquiring team’s cap situation. The Panthers have allowed him to seek out a trade partner.
The Cowboys sit in the top half of the league in terms of spending power, but mixed signals initially came out with respect to their interest in making a splash. Owner Jerry Jones has insisted Dallas will not initiate negotiations on a trade, citing his confidence in a 4-2 roster which has been hit by a few notable injuries on defense in particular. Despite having more cap space than most other teams, the Bengals are likewise expected to be quiet on the trade front.
The past few years have seen a notable uptick in trade activity around the league, and it would come as a surprise if that trend did not continue over the next few days. Last-minute restructures and cost-shedding moves would help the teams in need of flexibility pull off moves, though sellers will no doubt also be asked to retain salary if some of the higher-paid veterans on the trade block end up being dealt. Given the spending power of teams at the top of the list, there is plenty of potential for the league’s landscape to change ahead of the stretch run to the playoffs.
Another slow start in Denver has brought about the latest round of trade talks involving the struggling team. Although Randy Gregory went for this season’s trendy low-end trade package — player/seventh for a sixth — and Frank Clark surfaced as a trade chip before being released, the Broncos’ top two wide receivers are again at the center of the trade rumors surrounding the team. With the Broncos at 1-5, they are likely not done moving pieces for draft capital.
In their third full season together, Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton have each spent multiple Octobers in trade rumors. Sutton signed a four-year, $60MM extension in October 2021 but surfaced as a potential trade piece ahead of last year’s deadline. Jeudy, who remains attached to a first-round rookie contract, generated far more interest going into the 2022 deadline.
Teams called the Broncos about Jeudy and Sutton last season, but GM George Paton stood down on both. With the presumed goal of the duo helping a retooled offense around Russell Wilson in 2023, the Broncos held onto their top weapons. While this season has not produced the offensive disaster 2022 did, the Broncos are still not where they want to be on that side of the ball. And both receivers have again come up in potential deals, as the Broncos are believed to be willing to listen on just about anyone not namedPatrick Surtain.
The Broncos informed at least two teams — the Cowboys and Giants — their Jeudy pursuit was not sufficient to make a move. Denver was connected to wanting a second-round pick at that point, but this offseason, the now-Sean Payton-run team placed a first-round price on the 2020 first-round pick. Teams understandably balked at that, and Jeudy came into the season as the team’s expected top target. Success has largely eluded the shifty wideout, who has drawn criticism from former players for his unremarkable performance. Through five games (after missing Week 1 with a hamstring injury), Jeudy has just 20 receptions for 222 yards and no touchdowns.
Sutton’s 275 yards and four TD receptions lead the Broncos, and the team did not hold out for a first-round pick in exchange for the former second-rounder this offseason. Denver sought a second-round pick for Sutton, whose $15MM-per-year contract runs through 2025. The Ravens appeared close to making a deal in March, but talks slowed and the team pivoted to a $15MM guarantee for Odell Beckham Jr. While Baltimore’s OBJ signing has not panned out to this point, Sutton is highly unlikely to fetch a second-round pick. Jeudy will not score a first-rounder for the Broncos, and teams may be balking at the Alabama alum’s fully guaranteed $12.99MM 2024 option salary.
A 2018 draftee who developed behind former Denver dynamic duo Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, Sutton has a 1,000-yard season under his belt. That came back in 2019, with a Joe Flacco–Brandon Allen–Drew Lock QB platter targeting the 6-foot-4 receiver. Even as the Broncos’ offense cratered to last place under Nathaniel Hackett, Jeudy posted 972 yards and finished the season strong, recording three 100-yard games in his final five.
Unavailability has largely defined the Broncos’ 2020s receiver blueprint. Sutton suffered an ACL tear in Week 2 of the 2020 season, starting a pattern of injuries that kept the Broncos from fully deploying their planned wideout array together. A reliable target in 2020 and 2021, Tim Patrick also signed an extension in November of ’21 (three years, $30MM) but the 6-4 possession target has suffered ACL and Achilles tears during the past two training camps. The injuries obviously leave the former UDFA’s Broncos future in doubt. Patrick’s injury came after KJ Hamler ran into another health issue, seeing a heart problem lead to a cut. While the Broncos left the door open to the former second-rounder returning, Hamler is now on the Colts’ practice squad. Jeudy has missed 10 career games.
Denver followed up one of the best receiver eras in franchise history — a five-season Thomas-Sanders partnership that involved lucrative extensions sandwiching the team’s Super Bowl 50 win — with what has amounted to a letdown. Payton has been unable to coax steady production from either thus far, and moving one of them appears likely — especially if losses continue ahead of the Oct. 31 deadline. A trade would open up more playing time for second-round pick Marvin Mims, who has shown flashes as a deep threat. The Broncos have not used the Payton-era pickup too often, however, playing him on just 97 snaps thus far. Mims’ 246 receiving yards still top Jeudy’s output.
Jeudy, 24, is tied to a $2.68MM base salary this year. Sutton, 28, is attached to a $14MM base that will be much harder to move. Under Paton, the Broncos have shown a willingness to eat salary to facilitate trades. The Broncos paid all but the prorated veteran minimum to move Von Miller in 2021 (for second- and third-round picks) and did the same to send out Gregory earlier this season. Denver has also been this period’s most notable seller, having dealt Thomas in 2018 (to the Texans, for a fourth-round pick), Sanders in 2019 (to the 49ers, for third- and fourth-rounders) and Bradley Chubb (to the Dolphins, for first- and fourth-rounders, along with Chase Edmonds).
Keeping viable receivers in place to help Wilson may no longer be a concern for the Broncos, who will undoubtedly consider moving on from the underwhelming trade acquisition — via a record-setting dead-money charge, even in a post-June 1 cut scenario — in 2024. But the team’s offseason asking prices for Jeudy and Sutton will probably not be met. Both players do not appear part of Payton’s long-term plan, and each would probably be more interesting on a contender with a better offensive setup.
The Broncos will need to determine how much below asking price they will be willing to go to move on from the pillars of a promising but ultimately disappointing receiving cast. The team has less than two weeks to decide.
2023 has seen the Patriots continue to struggle in the years following Tom Brady’s free agent departure in 2020. Offensive shortcomings were foreshadowed in the waning years of the legendary quarterback’s time in New England, but they have dragged the franchise down as the search for a long-term successor is still ongoing.
That effort saw Mac Jonesselected in the first round of the 2021 draft, and his rookie performance offered optimism he could deliver consistent play under center. Since then, however, the Alabama product has not met expectations and his status as the team’s undisputed starter remained in question through this past offseason. Tensions between he and head coach Bill Belichick went public, and 2023 was viewed as a potential make-or-break-year for both parties.
The Patriots’ bizarre setup with respect to guiding the offense last season – which saw Matt Patricia and Joe Judge share duties on a less-than-familiar side of the ball – was done away with this spring. The return of OC Bill O’Brien brought about optimism for a rebound from Jones and the rest of the unit, but New England ranks last in the league in points per game and 28th in total offense. Over the past two weeks, their struggles have manifested in undeniable fashion: a 38-3 loss to the Cowboys, followed by a 34-0 defeat at home against the Saints.
At no point during Robert Kraft’s ownership tenure had the Patriots lost two games by 30 or more points in a season, a feat which has now been seen in consecutive weeks. Jones has not been on the field by the end of either contest, but he has received a vote of confidence as the starting signal-caller moving forward. How long of a leash he receives will be a storyline to follow, but the same will hold true for the play of the pass-catching corps around him.
Belichick and the Patriots do not have a stellar record when it comes to identifying high-end receivers in the draft, something which has been made painfully clear without Brady under center. The occasional free agent spending spree – such as the one which produced lucrative deals for tight ends Jonnu Smithand Hunter Henryin 2021 – has not proved to be a useful solution. Mike Gesickirepresents the latest investment at the TE spot, albeit on a one-year deal, which has yet to yield notable production.
Whispers about Belichick’s job security started to pick up when Kraft essentially delivered a playoffs-or-bust ultimatum in March. While the latter walked back that sentiment to an extent, it very much remains to be seen if the former will be able to dig New England out of its 1-4 hole. Failure to do so will no doubt lead to plenty of attention aimed at Belichick’s intentions; the 71-year-old is reportedly expected to step aside (voluntarily or otherwise) if the current campaign ends in another lack of postseason success.
Defensive consistency has, to no surprise, been a mainstay for the Patriots across Belichick’s tenure. That unit is in danger of suffering a notable step back in effectiveness this year, however, with both Pro Bowl edge rusherMatt Judonand first-round rookie cornerbackChristian Gonzalezexpected to miss the rest of the campaign. Their losses will be acutely felt as the team is set to rely on its defense given the inability of the offense to consistently put up points.
Gaining ground in a division which features the Dolphins and Bills will be a daunting task given the advantage those teams have in the standings and the issues which threaten to consign the Patriots to what would be a third year out of the four since Brady left without a playoff appearance (the lone exception coming in 2021 which included a 30-point loss in the wild-card round). While that era has seen a continuation of the organization’s brain drain on the sidelines and in the front office, the current situation has led to renewed calls for a large-scale reset.
What do you make of the Patriots’ 2023 performances and the overall trends they underscore? Should Jones and/or Belichick remain in place as the key determinants in future success (or perhaps a lack thereof)? Or would the organization be better suited to move in a fundamentally different direction and begin a new era? Have your say in the comments section below.
