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Offseason In Review: Carolina Panthers

September 4th, 2023 at 10:00pm CST by Sam Robinson

After expressing quick regret on his initial hire as Panthers owner, David Tepper reversed course and prioritized NFL experience. Carolina bailed midway through Year 3 on Matt Rhule‘s seven-year contract, and despite Steve Wilks‘ admirable job moving the team back into the mix for a division title (albeit in a historically bad NFC South), Frank Reich became the pick.

That move sets the tone for Carolina’s mid-2020s, but the decision Reich, Tepper and GM Scott Fitterer made barely a month later should have a longer-term impact. After a quarterback carousel spun in Charlotte for several seasons, the team did its best to address one of the NFL’s most glaring needs.

Trades:

  • Sent Bears WR D.J. Moore, Nos. 9 and 61, along with 2024 first-, 2025 second-round pick for No. 1 overall pick

Cam Newton‘s MVP 2015 season turned out to be an aberration; the talented dual-threat option gradually trended down in the years following Carolina’s Super Bowl 50 loss. Toward the end of that late-2010s period, Newton began to break down. Shoulder and foot injuries led to the Panthers cutting bait on his 2015 extension in 2020, but the three-year, $63MM Teddy Bridgewater contract became one of a few stopgap measures that destabilized the team.

Rhule traded Bridgewater in 2021, and the Panthers offered a top-10 pick and their 2020 QB1 for Matthew Stafford in 2021. The Panthers believed they had secured a Stafford trade that winter (though, the then-Lions QB was not too keen on such a move), but the Rams swooping in led to a subsequent trade for Sam Darnold. An injury-plagued Darnold year keyed the Rhule-directed Baker Mayfield push. The Mayfield move only came about after Tepper’s two-offseason pursuit of Deshaun Watson failed. Watson was not big on the Panthers, and they joined the Falcons and Saints in balking at matching the Browns’ fully guaranteed extension offer. Since Newton’s 2018 shoulder injury shut him down, the Panthers have started seven QBs.

This offseason did not turn into a Bryce Young-centric effort immediately. The Panthers pursued Derek Carr, meeting with the nine-year Raiders passer at the Combine — shortly after Carr wielded his no-trade clause to finalize a release. And they were still in those sweepstakes days before going in another direction. But the team shied away from Carr’s $35MM-per-year asking price, clearing the way for the Saints to meet it.

Initially, the Bears were looking at moving from No. 1 to No. 2 to No. 9 — a complex trade that would have given the Texans the top pick and the Panthers the second overall choice. But Houston drifted out of the picture, leading to direct Chicago-Carolina negotiations. Bears GM Ryan Poles asked about Brian Burns and Derrick Brown, but after Fitterer kept the young front-seven pieces out of the trade, Chicago insisted Moore be part of the package. Despite Moore anchoring the Panthers’ receiving corps for most of his five-year Charlotte run, that did not prove a dealbreaker. The Panthers had extended Moore — on a three-year, $61.8MM deal — in March 2022; that contract is now on the Bears’ payroll.

The Panthers needed to include Moore to separate themselves from the other suitors for the pick, making the reluctant decision despite previously turning down a first-rounder (in different trade talks) for their No. 1 wide receiver. Moore, 26, joins Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad as the only three-time 1,100-yard receivers in franchise history. Smith and Muhammad enjoyed better QB stability than Moore, who did not begin his 1,100-yard string until Kyle Allen took over for Newton in 2019.

Carolina also preferred to retain the higher of its two 2023 second-round picks. Rather than move their own choice (No. 38), the Panthers gave the Bears the pick obtained in the Christian McCaffrey deal (No. 61) and a 2025 second. It can be argued the Panthers overprotected their own 2023 second-rounder (which became wideout Jonathan Mingo), keeping it and instead trading No. 61 and a 2025 second.

Regardless of how they stuck the landing, the Panthers made a true QB commitment for the first time since extending Newton in 2015. As a result, Young and Justin Fields‘ careers will be tied together for a while. With Poles and Fitterer boldly completing this trade before free agency, the Panthers carried more certainty going into the market compared to the Bears, who had traded a No. 1 overall pick earlier in an offseason than anyone since the draft moved to April in 1976. It did not take too long before the Panthers’ Young preference circulated.

Free agency additions:

The Moore trade keyed a receiver reboot in Carolina. After Moore and the then-Robbie Anderson began the past three seasons as the Panthers’ top wideouts, both ended up in trades. The team’s ensuing plan injects more risk into the equation, with Thielen going into his age-33 season and Chark missing sizable chunks of the past two slates due to injuries.

Parting with a number of core contributors to improve their cap situation, the Vikings ditched Thielen after 10 years. The Division II product-turned-rookie-camp body made a stunning ascent to join Randy Moss, Cris Carter and Anthony Carter near the top of all-time Vikings receiving lists, and the Minnesota native enjoyed a market upon being cut. The Broncos and Cowboys were among the teams to pursue Thielen, but the 11th-year pass catcher signed with the Panthers after a visit. The Panthers provided a quality parachute for Thielen, who collected nearly as much guaranteed money as top 2023 receiver UFAs Jakobi Meyers and JuJu Smith-Schuster ($16MM apiece) despite being seven years older than both.

Thielen, whose 30 touchdown receptions since 2020 trail only Davante Adams, Mike Evans and Tyreek Hill. Granted, Thielen benefited extensively from Justin Jefferson‘s meteoric rise. But the veteran possession receiver should still aid Young as he acclimates to the NFL. This is a true multiyear commitment. In a non-post-June 1 capacity, cutting Thielen would not save the Panthers any money in 2024. Reich and Co. are betting on two solid years from Thielen.

The Lions attempted to re-sign Chark, but he will be part of a third team in three years. The ex-Jaguars second-rounder posted a 1,000-yard season with Gardner Minshew primarily at the controls (2019) and did some field-stretching work for the Lions when available last year. But Chark missed 13 games because of a fractured ankle in 2021 and saw more ankle trouble lead him to IR last season. Chark still averaged 16.7 yards per reception in his Lions one-off — the second-highest total of his career — but the $5MM contract reflects teams’ hesitancy on the injury front. Chark underwent another ankle surgery this offseason; this second “prove it” deal will be pivotal for the LSU alum’s earning power.

Both Mike Gesicki and Dalton Schultz received the franchise tag last season and have been superior receivers to Hurst during their careers. Hurst, 30, is also two years older than Gesicki and three years older than Schultz. The Panthers nevertheless made another true multiyear commitment. Hurst has one career 500-yard receiving season — a 571-yard showing with the 2020 Falcons — and is coming off a 414-yard slate in Cincinnati. PFF also rated Schultz as a far superior run blocker last season. With the Bengals and Falcons over the past two seasons, Hurst did not exceed nine yards per reception.

The Panthers have not effectively replaced Greg Olsen since his foot trouble keyed a late-2010s decline. They will be making an interesting bet on Hurst doing so, but he and Thielen represent pivotal parts of Young’s first NFL attack.

As you may have heard, the NFL collectively updated its view of running backs. On that note, Sanders was fairly fortunate to land the deal he did. The four-year Eagles starter collected the most guaranteed money of any RB this offseason, though his AAV checked in south of James Conner and Leonard Fournette‘s 2022 pacts. Although Sanders will reunite with ex-Eagles RBs coach Duce Staley, who helped steer him to the Panthers, he is going from perhaps the NFL’s best offensive line to a middling unit. Saquon Barkley‘s Penn State successor is coming off a career-best (by a wide margin) 1,269 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. He also has not totaled more than 200 receiving yards in a season since 2019. But there should be some pass-catching upside for the Panthers to explore.

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Offseason In Review: New York Jets

September 4th, 2023 at 9:59pm CST by Ben Levine

As aggressive New York Jets offseason saw the organization accelerate its timeline to 2023. While the 2022 iteration of the team had some warts, the Jets also showed significant progress during Robert Saleh‘s second season at the helm. The Jets had both the Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year in Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner, and with other promising young players up and down the roster, the Jets pushed their chips to the middle of the table.

After having received some of the worst QB play in the league during the 2022 campaign, the team made it a mission to improve the position in 2023. Gang Green improved it in a big way, acquiring a future Hall of Famer in Aaron Rodgers. The four-time MVP immediately adds credibility to an organization that’s desperate for respect, and it firmly puts the Jets on the playoff (if not Super Bowl) radar.

The Jets capitalized on their inexpensive core players by not only acquiring Rodgers. The team also brought in a number of championship-hungry veterans, including a number of Rodgers’ former Green Bay teammates. These transactions should be enough to guide the Jets back to the playoffs for the first time since 2010, but will it be enough to push them to the promised land?

Trades:

At one point, Zach Wilson was the crown jewel of the Jets’ rebuild. With GM Joe Douglas having loaded up on draft picks, Wilson was going to be the leader of an organically built squad. In natural Jets fashion, the BYU product failed to live up to expectations, leading the front office to look elsewhere at the position this offseason.

While the recent NFL team-building strategy has focused on spending around a rookie-contract QB, the Jets were in the unique position of having top-end rookie-level contracts elsewhere on the roster. Instead of restarting at the position via the draft, Douglas and Co. were motivated to compete now, and that was reflected in their rumored interest in many of the league’s available veteran quarterbacks.

The Jets briefly flirted with Derek Carr before focusing their attention to the biggest name on the market: Aaron Rodgers. The Packers legend was clearly done in Green Bay and was considering his options, which included retirement. While Rodgers was still under contract with the Packers, he treated his decision like a pseudo-free agency, and he eventually declared his intention to play for the Jets.

After a month of negotiations, the veteran was traded to New York in a deal that ultimately netted Green Bay an improved 2023 first-round selection, a 2023 second-rounder and, in all likelihood, a 2024 first. Rodgers only needs to play 65% of the Jets’ 2023 offensive snaps for the Packers to collect a 2024 first. Suffice to say, the Packers did far better for Rodgers than they did when they sent Brett Favre to the Jets 15 years ago. That deal only ended up bringing the Pack a third-rounder.

Rodgers had one of his weakest seasons in 2022, putting together one of his lowest TD% (4.8) and one of his highest INT rates (2.2%) while finishing with the third losing record in his career (8-9). Of course, this would still be a massive improvement for the Jets’ offense, and Rodgers is only a year removed from back-to-back MVPs. Even if you no longer consider Rodgers one of the top QBs in the league, it appears he has enough in the tank for his age-40 season.

The Jets weren’t done wheeling and dealing, with the front office moving on from a pair of former second-round WRs. Elijah Moore took a step back during his second season in the NFL, finishing with 446 receiving yards (vs. 538 as a rook) and one score (vs. five touchdowns). With the Jets adding a number of receivers to the roster (which we’ll get to below), Moore’s role with the organization was even more uncertain.

The team ended up finding a taker, sending Moore to Cleveland. Moore had requested a trade last season, and while the Jets refused to move him at that point, they were more open to doing so with Rodgers and new wideouts onboard.

Mims was drafted a year before Moore but showed less through his three seasons in the NFL, hauling in a total 42 receptions for 676 yards. He was traded to the Lions for a conditional late-round pick. Detroit has since cut the wideout.

The Jets acquired Chuck Clark with the hope he’d play an important role on their secondary. The veteran only missed one start for the Ravens over the past three seasons, averaging around 92 tackles per season. Unfortunately, the March acquisition tore his ACL in June, ending his season before it even began. Clark’s injury ultimately led to the team’s signing of safety Adrian Amos.

Extensions and restructures:

Rodgers was attached to an untenable $107.5MM bill for the 2024 season, so the Jets made sure to adjust his contract upon completion of their trade with the Packers. The team ended up locking Rodgers into a two-year deal with $75MM guaranteed, a significant drop from the $100MM guaranteed he was set to see over the next two seasons. The contract also includes a nonguaranteed $37.5MM bill for 2025.

Despite indicating he was 90% retired earlier this year, Rodgers has stated a desire to continue playing beyond the 2023 season. His extension certainly increases the chances that he’ll be under center for the 2024 campaign (and without the hefty charge he was set to have under his ripped-up pact).

Elsewhere, the Jets are counting on Quinnen Williams to continue his rapid rise. After collecting 13 sacks between the 2020 and 2021 seasons, the defensive tackle showed off his top-three-pick pedigree in 2022, finishing with 12 sacks and 28 QB hits en route to a first-team All-Pro nod. The Jets rewarded the breakthrough season. Williams’ new deal ultimately slid in ahead of the other 2019 D-tackle draftees who had signed lucrative offseason deals. Both Williams and the Titans’ Jeffery Simmons secured more guaranteed money than Aaron Donald.

Carl Lawson helped the Jets carve out some extra space by reworking his expiring contract. The veteran agreed to a new deal partially tied to incentives. Lawson started all 17 games during his first season with the Jets and is expected to be a key defensive lineman in 2023. The Rodgers, Williams and Lawson agreements created significant cap space for the Jets.

Free agency additions:

Rodgers made sure he did not come to New York alone. Before the Jets even finalized their latest QB trade with the Packers, the team added one of Rodgers’ preferred Green Bay options in Allen Lazard. After averaging 36 catches for 480 yards through the 2019 and 2021 seasons, Lazard became one of Rodgers’ favorite targets in 2022, hauling in 60 receptions for 788 yards and six touchdowns. Pro Football Focus has also graded Lazard as one of the league’s top blocking WRs in recent years, making him a dependable option even if he’s not the focal point of the offense.

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Offseason In Review: Dallas Cowboys

September 3rd, 2023 at 10:00pm CST by Sam Robinson

Even after back-to-back 12-5 seasons, Mike McCarthy faces pressure going into his fourth year as Cowboys HC. The former Packers leader’s second-chance tenure has proven successful; he is the first Cowboys coach to guide the team to back-to-back playoff berths since Chan Gailey (1998-99). McCarthy will assume greater ownership of the team in Year 4 as well, taking over the play-calling reins after a split with OC Kellen Moore.

The Cowboys’ modest run of 21st-century postseason accomplishments is well known, turning up some heat on this rather popular team’s latest sideline boss. But Dallas’ latest roster does not present many weaknesses. The team addressed deficiencies via trades for accomplished veterans and is poised to enter this season healthier than it did in 2022. With the NFC again looking like the weaker conference (potentially by a wide margin), there are not many teams that outflank the Cowboys. That raises the stakes for McCarthy’s team to put it together in January.

Extensions and restructures:

Joining Chris Jones in testing his team with a holdout, Martin incurred more than $1MM in nonwaivable fines (the 49ers’ Nick Bosa holdout differs, as teams can still waive fines for rookie-contract players). But the future Hall of Fame guard made the absence worthwhile. The Cowboys caved, and Martin cashed in despite two seasons having remained on his contract.

The Cowboys’ preference for five- or six-year extensions has led to a number of stalwarts playing out their primes and seeing peers elsewhere sign shorter-term contracts, allowing for a potential second big payday, and ultimately come out better. Dallas’ penchant for lengthy extensions reminds of how contracts were structured in previous eras, and coming into this year, only Dak Prescott earned a notable victory (via his four-year, $160MM extension) over management on this front.

Martin entered the offseason tied to a six-year, $84MM deal. Agreed to in 2018, Martin’s contract set a guard record at the time. Given how NFL business works, lesser guards passed Martin. Chris Lindstrom, who does not have an All-Pro nod on his resume, joined Quenton Nelson in the $20MM-AAV guard club. This may or may not have been the last straw for Martin, who had fallen to the ninth-highest-paid guard following the Lindstrom pact.

Dallas’ 32-year-old O-line anchor did not skip minicamp but expressed disappointment in his contract before training camp and followed through on a rare holdout. The 2020 CBA deterred holdouts over its first three years, preventing teams from waiving fines for veterans who miss camp without excused absences. Although Jerry Jones‘ comments suggested a hardline stance, Martin ended up with an $8MM raise over two years and walked away with those final two seasons fully guaranteed. Martin had played out the guarantees on his previous deal.

For the All-Decade blocker to secure this package pointed to the value he brings the team. With Tyron Smith perennially injured and Travis Frederick retiring years ago, Martin represents the last link to the Tony Romo-era O-line core. Still in his prime protecting Prescott, the right guard struck a rare blow against the Cowboys’ contract M.O.

The Cowboys came into camp prioritizing younger players’ contracts over Martin’s, with Diggs being one of the central priorities. Known for his aggressiveness, the former second-round pick produced a historic 2021 season (11 INTs — territory no one had reached since Everson Walls got there as a Cowboys rookie in 1981) that ended with first-team All-Pro acclaim. Diggs’ passer rating against and completion percentage allowed figures skyrocketed in 2022, however. Citing the corner’s yards yielded in coverage, Pro Football Focus has yet to rank Diggs as a top-40 player at the position. The Cowboys are convinced in Diggs, for the foreseeable future at least, giving the former second-round pick an upper-crust extension.

Like Amari Cooper‘s 2020 contract, the Diggs deal has a clear out after two years. The Cowboys would be hit with just $4MM in dead money by designating Diggs as a post-June 1 cut in 2025 or trading him after that date. The team certainly will hope for a better outcome on this accord, but it is fairly protected in the event Diggs’ gambling habit catches up to him on this big-ticket accord. The player the Cowboys drafted to replace Byron Jones ended up cashing in on the type of extension neither Jones nor former top-10 pick Morris Claiborne could score with the team.

Hooker’s extension gives the Cowboys three safeties signed in the $5-$7MM-per-year range, completing an interesting middle-class-veteran-based plan at a position the team struggled to staff for years. Joining Jayron Kearse and Donovan Wilson in a formidable three-safety set including a former sixth-round pick and two outside hires, Hooker is now on his third Cowboys contract. The former Colts first-rounder has gone from earning $920K per year in his first Cowboys season (2021) to a $3.5MM AAV (2022) to this deal. Hooker has shaken off the injury issues that plagued him in Indianapolis, missing only three games as a Cowboy, and, at 27, is squarely in his prime.

Although dozens of restructures took place this offseason, few carried greater ramifications than Prescott’s. The Cowboys saved plenty by moving money around on their top contract, but it arms the veteran quarterback with plenty of leverage once again. Prescott scored his monster extension, after three offseasons of negotiations, because of the trouble a second franchise tag would have caused for the Cowboys in 2021. Dak’s latest restructure spikes his 2024 cap number to $59.5MM. That is an untenable figure for the Cowboys, considering no one has ever played a season with a cap number higher than $45MM.

The Cowboys cannot tag Prescott in 2025, due to the whopping figure that could come about because of the two tags used previously (the second being for procedural purposes to prevent a 2025 tag), and the void years they tacked onto the deal would result in a $36.4MM dead-money hit were Dak to walk as a 2025 free agent. Although Prescott struggled for stretches last season, he is equipped for a bounce-back year — one that should vault him into the newly created $50MM-per-year salary club. Few players are in more advantageous financial situations.

Smith has finally reached the end of the NFL’s longest-running active contract. The All-Decade tackle did not exactly do poorly for earnings in his career, but signing an eight-year, $97.6MM extension in 2014 walled off his path to a lucrative third contract. Smith, who came into the league at 20, is still just 32. Had Smith signed even a five-year deal when first eligible, he would have been positioned to score another one more in line with the market changes (the cap rested at $133MM in 2014; it hit $224.8MM this year). Being attached to a $12.2MM-per-year extension, Smith would have been the NFL’s 27th-highest-paid tackle this year. The likely Hall of Famer’s injuries (45 missed games since 2016) led to the Cowboys effectively mandating a pay cut, but he will still beat the odds and finish out this contract.

Trades:

The Cowboys’ public courtship of Odell Beckham Jr. produced nothing, as the former star ended up sitting out the 2022 season altogether. Prior to the Beckham push, however, the Cowboys discussed Cooks with the Texans. At that point, Houston was believed to want a second-round pick (Cooks’ cost back in 2020, when the Texans acquired him from the Rams). Dallas did not bite, and months later, it did not take anything on that level to pry the veteran away from the rebuilding team. While the Cowboys inquired on Jerry Jeudy and Adam Thielen, Cooks became their pick to upgrade the receiving corps.

Michael Gallup did not deliver plus WR2 work last season, and the Cowboys missed Cooper alongside CeeDee Lamb. With Gallup nearly two years removed from his ACL tear, Cooks gives the team another nice three-WR set. Joining Brandon Marshall in accumulating 1,000-yard receiving seasons for four different teams, Cooks saw his numbers dip last season. He served as less of a deep threat in Houston, seeing his average depth of target drop under 11 in each of the past two seasons. Going into his age-30 season, Cooks should still have something left. Will the veteran speedster be able to threaten defenses deep consistently with a better quarterback?

Dallas restructured Cooks’ contract, dropping his cap hit to $6MM this season through the use of void years. Should the 10th-year wide receiver be a post-prime commodity, the team can escape this contract — originally a two-year, $39MM Texans extension — for just $2MM in dead money in 2024 (as a post-June 1 cut). Considering the 2022 Cowboys only featured one 600-yard receiver — in a year in which they cycled through some options, including in-season addition T.Y. Hilton — sending the Texans two late-round picks for one of the league’s steadiest options was a move worth making.

Another move to indicate how the Cowboys view their championship window occurred just before the Cooks strike. Dallas will complement Diggs with Gilmore, giving the defense five players who have received first- or second-team All-Pro acclaim (along with Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence and Leighton Vander Esch). After an abbreviated 2021 season that involved a contract dispute and an eventual trade out of New England, the 2019 Defensive Player of the Year showed he still had gas in the tank in Indianapolis. The Colts’ coaching and QB performance obscured their other players’ work, and Gilmore graded as PFF’s No. 9 overall corner. Gilmore’s passer rating-against and completion percentage allowed numbers came in much better, despite the Colts’ struggles, than his 2021 output.

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Offseason In Review: New England Patriots

September 1st, 2023 at 9:32pm CST by Ben Levine

The 2022 season saw the Patriots fail to make the playoffs for the second time in the post-Tom Brady era. While the players deserve their fair share of blame for the team’s lack of success, New England’s struggles could mostly be attributed to the sideline.

With Josh McDaniels having left for Las Vegas, Bill Belichick made the bold decision to replace his offensive coordinator with a former defensive coordinator in Matt Patricia and a former special teams coordinator in Joe Judge. Predictably, the results were less than stellar, and the team’s lack of offensive cohesion played a big role in quarterback Mac Jones‘ sophomore slump.

So, while fans may have been clamoring for a big-name acquisition, the organization’s biggest offseason move was bringing in former OC Bill O’Brien to help guide the offense. Will the coaching change help improve the Patriots’ postseason chances? It won’t hurt, but it remains to be seen if New England has enough firepower on their roster to keep up with the other three teams in the AFC East.

Extensions and restructures:

The Patriots’ most notable extension of the offseason came during training camp, when they ended Matt Judon‘s hold-in by giving him a pay bump for the 2023 campaign. The veteran edge has transformed into one of the team’s most important players since he came over from Baltimore before the 2021 campaign, compiling 28 sacks over the past two years.

However, Judon has also struggled to finish each of those seasons on a strong note, which could explain why the front office opted to give him more money right now vs. tacking on additional years at the back end of his contract. While Judon’s reworked deal temporarily solves any contract tension, there’s a good chance he’ll be seeking some long-term security next offseason.

DeVante Parker‘s first season in New England left plenty to be desired, although there’s not a whole lot a receiver can do if the quarterback can’t get him the ball. The veteran wideout did show some signs of promise though, setting career-highs in catch percentage (66 percent) and yards-per-target (11.5), and his 17.4 yards per reception was his highest mark since his rookie campaign. The Patriots have a relatively deep receivers room and it’s uncertain how Parker fits into that grouping, but the front office gave him a vote of confidence by reworking his deal.

Belichick and Co. have always taken pride in their diamonds in the rough, so it was not a big surprise when the team was proactive in extending Ja’Whaun Bentley. The former fifth-round pick has topped 100 tackles in each of the past two seasons, and the Patriots will be counting on him to take on an even larger role on defense in the coming years.

Raekwon McMillan went down with a torn Achilles during New England’s offseason workouts, ending the linebacker’s season before it even began. However, for the second time in his tenure with the organization, he inked an extension ahead of a season in which he will not participate. McMillan bounced back from that 2021 ACL tear to play 16 games for the Patriots last season, finishing with 35 tackles and a fumble returned for a TD.

Free agency additions:

The Patriots didn’t really add to their offense as much as they simply signed free agents to replace their departed players (which we’ll get to below). Still, that’s not to say that the free agent acquisitions won’t help the Patriots and Jones in 2023. JuJu Smith-Schuster led the Chiefs in receiving during his one season playing alongside Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City, finishing with 933 receiving yards and three touchdowns. While Smith-Schuster made notable contributions for a team that traded Tyreek Hill, that yardage figure is a far cry from his best year with the Steelers. The wideout is now five years removed from his breakout 2018 campaign that saw him compile 1,426 receiving yards, but the Patriots clearly added him as a depth piece instead of an offensive focal point.

Bill O’Brien was at the helm when the Patriots rolled with their talented tight end duo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, so pairing Mike Gesicki with Hunter Henry is certainly intriguing. Still, the tight end struggled in Miami on the franchise tag last season after the organization added notable offensive weapons, finishing with his fewest receptions and receiving yards (32 for 362) since his rookie campaign. Miami’s offense is obviously a lot more dynamic than New England’s, but it will be interesting to see if Gesicki can produce with a number of comparable weapons around him.

The team’s biggest-name acquisition came during the preseason, when the Patriots added veteran Ezekiel Elliott to their backfield. The former All-Pro averaged a career-low 3.8 yards per carry last season as he was used increasingly as a short-yardage specialist, and he was ultimately cut by the Cowboys during the offseason. He’ll likely see a similar secondary role in New England with Rhamondre Stevenson emerging as a capable lead back.

Riley Reiff brings 149 games of starting experience to New England, and the veteran will likely fill in for the departed Isaiah Wynn at right tackle. Reiff’s production in recent years has been up and down, a fact that was reinforced when he couldn’t even crack the starting lineup for the lowly Bears to begin the 2022 campaign. Still, with the Patriots likely rostering at least three rookie offensive linemen, there’s a good chance the Patriots rely on Reiff’s veteran knowhow, even if it’s just temporary.

Re-signings:

The New England secondary had the potential to look a whole lot different in 2023, and we’re not even talking about the addition of Christian Gonzalez and the subtraction of long-time Patriot Devin McCourty. Three key defensive backs hit free agency at one time or another, and all three ended up re-signing with New England

Jonathan Jones has played in a variety of roles during his seven seasons in New England. He was mostly known as a slot cornerback through the first chunk of his career, but he was forced to the outside following J.C. Jackson‘s exit last offseason. Jones ended up having a career season from a statistical perspective, compiling 69 tackles, four interceptions and 11 passes defended. It was uncertain if the organization would pony up to re-sign the veteran, especially with the front office investing so much draft capital into the position in recent years. However, Jones ended up re-upping with the organization, and regardless of his role in 2023, he’ll certainly be an important part of the defense.

Jabrill Peppers is another Swiss Army Knife weapon in New England’s secondary, and while the former first-round pick managed to rehabilitate his value in 2022, he still decided to stick in New England. Peppers has the ability to play in the hybrid linebacker role that Patrick Chung used to play, but with McCourty now out of the picture, the coaching staff may lean on him even more in the secondary in 2023.

Jalen Mills had an intersting offseason, with the veteran defender earning his walking papers before re-signing with the organization within the week. Mills did not necessarily live up to the four-year, $24MM contract he initially signed with the Patriots in 2021, but the team’s newfound depth means it won’t be as reliant on the veteran as they once were. Plus, Mills’ versatility will only be seen as a positive in New England.

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Offseason In Review: Washington Commanders

August 31st, 2023 at 10:00pm CST by Sam Robinson

The Commanders’ roster moves did not receive too much attention this offseason. Dan Snyder‘s prolonged exit overshadowed his former team’s football matters. The Snyder-to-Josh Harris transfer represents the most important storyline involving this franchise this century. Without the historically unpopular owner, the once-respected organization can begin to pick up the pieces.

As the team does so, an interesting blueprint has formed. No head coach’s seat should be considered hotter than Ron Rivera‘s, and longtime HC candidate Eric Bieniemy is now in place as the team’s play-caller. The unusual circumstances surrounding Bieniemy’s arrival aside, the Commanders have operated curiously — and intently — at quarterback. Rivera’s job security will be tied to a fifth-round quarterback — Sam Howell — the team has backed since his Week 18 debut.

Extensions and restructures:

The Commanders’ most expensive roster maneuver came before free agency, and it became a seminal development for the defensive tackle market. Payne’s extension laid the groundwork for the new second tier of D-tackle contracts that bridge the gap between Aaron Donald and the field. This agreement came to pass after Payne delivered a strong contract year, starring alongside Jonathan Allen to help a Commanders team still without the full services of Chase Young. After Payne’s 11.5-sack season — which more than doubled his previous single-slate best — Washington unholstered the franchise tag.

Payne and Terry McLaurin loomed as 2022 extension candidates, but the Commanders took care of their top receiver and drafted a potential Payne replacement (fellow Alabama alum Phidarian Mathis) in the second round. But Mathis went down four plays into his rookie season, which turned into a breakthrough year for Payne.

The Commanders expressed a greater interest in extending Payne after his contract-year showing, and his deal at the time became the highest non-Donald AAV at the position. Payne’s pact provided a baseline for Dexter Lawrence, Jeffery Simmons and Quinnen Williams‘ second contracts — each of which ending between $22.5MM and $24MM per year — and has given the Chiefs a Chris Jones price range. The veteran All-Pro, however, has viewed that level as beneath him, holding out for Donald-level dough.

Payne’s deal gives the Commanders two D-tackle AAVs of at least $18MM. The Giants match this and are doing so with Daniel Jones extended. Washington getting off Carson Wentz‘s contract, moving to Howell, will allow for a higher volume of payments elsewhere on the roster. With Payne and Allen extended, it sets the stage for an interesting decision at defensive end — where Young and Montez Sweat are going into contract years.

Free agency additions:

Six teams used the franchise tag this year. The Commanders were the only one to hammer out an extension before free agency. Doing so took Payne’s tag price out of the equation and dropped the sixth-year defender’s 2023 cap hit by nearly $10MM. This, along with some notable cuts, gave Washington some cash to spend. The team primarily targeted middling offensive linemen, though Brissett secured a pay increase after a better-than-expected Cleveland campaign.

Wylie, 29, enhanced his value considerably in 2022. While a Chiefs regular, Wylie did not earn much — by NFL standards, at least — during his five seasons in Kansas City. The Chiefs re-signed him on a one-year, $2.54MM deal during the 2022 offseason. Despite the low-end contract, Kansas City stashed Wylie — a former guard — at right tackle. This became an important transition for the former UDFA.

A Chiefs 2021 O-line makeover — after a disastrous blocking effort in Super Bowl LV — produced answers at the four other O-line spots. But the AFC powerhouse skimped at right tackle. (Wylie started 11 games for the Super Bowl LIV-winning Chiefs team but missed those playoffs due to injury.) The only Chiefs Super Bowl LV O-line starter who remained a first-stringer in the aftermath, Wylie held a part-time role in 2021 and lined up with the first-stringers in every game for the Super Bowl LVII-winning team.

Pro Football Focus barely ranked Wylie inside the top 60 among tackles last season, and the Chiefs paid up — via a four-year, $80MM Jawaan Taylor deal — to replace him. But this year’s right tackle market boomed. Mike McGlinchey secured a $17.5MM-per-year contract (and a whopping $52.5MM in practical guarantees), while Kaleb McGary fetched $11.5MM per year to stay with the Falcons. Wylie settled in at a lower rate, but given his pre-2023 earnings, this contract is a game-changer for the Eastern Michigan alum. Wylie’s five-season Chiefs run overlapped entirely with Bieniemy’s OC tenure.

Washington paid market value for Gates, who was among five centers to score a deal worth between $4MM and $6MM per year in March. Gates’ career paused after a severe leg injury during a September 2021 game in Washington. The Giants had given him an extension to be their center, but New York’s revolving door post-Weston Richburg at the position kept spinning once Gates went down. Gates, 27, made it back for a midseason activation last year, helping the Giants to a surprising playoff berth. The former UDFA finished the season in a platoon setup at left guard, but he is returning to the pivot in Washington, potentially manning the job as third-round pick Ricky Stromberg develops.

It is fair to wonder if the Commanders are taking too big a risk by fielding an O-line full of modest investments. This group still features Charles Leno, a Bears castoff going into his age-32 season, at left tackle. Sam Cosmi has shifted from tackle to guard; this will be the former second-rounder’s first season as a full-time starter. Washington held a position battle for the left guard spot, with 2020 fourth-round pick Saahdiq Charles (eight starts in three seasons) expected to open the season as the starter. Howell looks to be stepping in behind an average-at-best unit.

The Commanders gave Barton a “prove it” deal. Seattle’s Bobby Wagner Seahawks replacement alongside Jordyn Brooks, Barton will replace Cole Holcomb in Washington. The Steelers brought in Holcomb in free agency. This will only be Barton’s second season as a starter; PFF assessed his first modestly, ranking the former third-round pick just inside the top 60 at the position. Statistically, Barton delivered a career year — 136 tackles, six passes defensed, two sacks and two INTs — and Jack Del Rio will attempt to plug him in at a position that has caused some issues for the team in recent years.

While Howell received tremendous votes of confidence despite a fifth-round pedigree and a one-game rookie year, the Commanders added Brissett as insurance. Brissett, 30, has made a career out of this, stepping in on short notice twice for Andrew Luck and then backing up Tua Tagovailoa before becoming the Browns’ Deshaun Watson stopgap. After struggling for the Dolphins, Brissett performed admirably in his Browns one-off.

Cleveland went just 4-7 during Brissett’s starter run, but QBR placed the journeyman eighth. Brissett completed a career-high 64% of his passes (at 7.1 yards per attempt, also a career-best mark during a season in which he operated as his team’s primary starter), keeping the Browns in most of their games. Among backup options this year, only Andy Dalton received more guaranteed money ($8MM). The former Patriots third-round pick has made 48 career starts, providing a backstop if Howell does not deliver on this offseason promise.

Re-signings:

Notable losses:

Wentz’s staggering descent has reached the point he looks unlikely to be on a team ahead of what would be his age-30 season. The former No. 2 overall pick has been working out in preparation of playing an eighth season, but no team has provided an opportunity (or Wentz has not accepted one). The 2017 would-be MVP has been jettisoned in three straight offseasons, with each exit more ignominious than the last. Wentz played four seasons on a $32MM-per-year contract and has pocketed more than $128MM in his career. Said career would still go down as disappointing if a notable second act does not commence.

The Commanders parting with two third-round picks for Wentz, taking on his contract after Jim Irsay was driving the bus over his 2021 starter, was surprising. But Washington’s efforts to trade for Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers or Derek Carr (and a potential inquiry into Andrew Luck‘s status) failed. Wentz being the consolation prize helped illuminate this franchise’s standing within the league. Predictably, the Wentz-Washington fit proved poor. A thumb injury limited Wentz to seven starts with Washington, which kept him on the bench as Heinicke provided a spark after Wentz had the team at 1-4.

Rivera turned back to the more talented quarterback in Week 17, but Wentz’s three-interception game sank the Commanders in a make-or-break game against the Browns. Due to the Eagles-constructed contract being traded twice, the Wentz cut did not leave the Commanders with any dead money. The $26MM in cap savings financed the Payne franchise tag.

The Falcons gave Heinicke a two-year, $14MM contract ($6.32MM guaranteed) to back up another 2022 mid-round-pick-turned-starter (Desmond Ridder). Washington had tried to keep Heinicke on the bench, signing Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2021 and then trading for Wentz. But the former Rivera Panthers charge kept finding his way into the lineup. Fitzpatrick’s 16-play Washington career led to 15 Heinicke starts in 2021, while the 2022 Commanders’ best work came with Heinicke at the controls. Heinicke, 30, improved his passer rating, yards per attempt and QBR figures last season, and Washington fans will always have his stunning wild-card duel with Tom Brady. The Old Dominion alum used his Washington stay to carve out a place as a decent NFL backup, a path that could lead to a few more years in the league.

The team did not make any secret of its Howell plans, letting it be known in January he had the inside track to start. Few quarterbacks have parlayed a meaningless season finale into a better opportunity. (Patrick Mahomes and Rob Johnson come to mind, but few others). But the Commanders placed a second-round grade on Howell, who fell from a player on the first-round radar to the top of the fifth. North Carolina losing most of Howell’s established weapons from 2020 to 2021 harmed the QB’s stock. It is safe to say he has rebounded in Washington.

Rivera’s instability makes the Howell call one of the bolder moves in recent memory, and it represents a swerve from the Commanders’ 2022 plans. Calling on just about every quarterback available or potentially available, the Commanders showed desperation — to the point they acquired Wentz without any contractual adjustment — last year. This pattern surely would have seen the Commanders place a call to Lamar Jackson, had the Ravens standout been tagged a year prior. Instead, the team joined the rest of the league in passing on a negotiation with the then-franchise-tagged superstar.

This fascinating pivot to a low-cost option offers high-risk, high-reward potential for the Commanders’ coaching staff. Washington does have a history of coaxing quality work from mid- or late-round passers. Even under Snyder, Kirk Cousins bailed the team out — to a degree, at least — of the mess the Robert Griffin III trade-up caused. Howell propping up Rivera (22-27-1 in Washington) would mark a similar save.

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Offseason In Review: Buffalo Bills

August 30th, 2023 at 9:58pm CST by Sam Robinson

The preseason favorites last season endured major injury problems and saw a frightening scene alter their playoff route. Rather than earning a first-round bye, the Bills saw the Damar Hamlin sequence lead to a postponement-turned-cancellation and a No. 2 seed. Buffalo’s poor showing as the second seed exposed some foundational cracks, and the team spent the offseason attempting to repair the damage. While the injuries to Josh Allen and Von Miller represented the top deterrents last season, the Bills went to work on both lines to better prepare themselves for another Super Bowl push.

Free agency additions:

In terms of outside investments, McGovern became the top priority. Agreeing to his contract on Day 1 of the legal tampering period, McGovern parlayed one full-time Cowboys starter season into a midlevel AFC East accord. The Cowboys’ 2022 left guard starter will replace Rodger Saffold, who became a Bills one-and-done. In ranking Buffalo’s offensive line 23rd overall, Pro Football Focus viewed the aging Saffold as one of the weak links.

McGovern, 25, does not bring an extensive track record to Buffalo. His backup, Edwards, has a longer run of starts. Although McGovern secured more than Cowboys LG predecessor Connor Williams, his AAV trailed a few 2022 guard pickups. Rather than pay up for the likes of James Daniels, Austin Corbett or Alex Cappa last year, the Bills rode with Saffold, whom PFF assigned a bottom-six guard grade. PFF also ranked McGovern outside the top 60, positing some questions. But the younger of the NFL’s blocking Connor McGoverns generated a market. Rather than go bigger for Ben Powers or Nate Davis, the Bills identified the ex-Cowboys third-rounder as an affordable solution.

The Bills have Edwards positioned as McGovern’s backup. Likely an upgrade on 2022 backup Greg Van Roten, Edwards started 45 games for the Rams. PFF viewed the former fifth-round pick as a top-30 guard in 2020 and 2021; Edwards started all 21 games for the Super Bowl LVI-bound Rams that season. Concussion trouble limited Edwards to four games last year, though Rams injuries piling up led them to prioritize other players’ returns from IR. The other Rams guard starter from Super Bowl LVI — Austin Corbett — fetched $8.75MM per year from the Panthers, but Edwards’ market cratered. The 26-year-old vet profiles as an interesting backup option for the Bills.

Buffalo also has Los Angeles’ two outside linebacker starters from that Super Bowl win, and Floyd should serve multiple purposes. Miller will begin the season on the reserve/PUP list; Floyd will insure the Bills’ edge rush, which Miller’s 2022 ACL tear left vulnerable. Proving he had solid NFL pass-rushing chops after an unremarkable Bears tenure, Floyd ripped off 29 sacks in three Rams seasons and added four more in the playoffs. Undoubtedly aided by Aaron Donald, Floyd still totaled four of his nine sacks last season in the five games the all-time great missed.

The Bills began talking terms with Floyd before the draft, and they ended up setting the veteran edge rusher market. Floyd’s deal preceded Frank Clark‘s, which laid the groundwork for the likes of Yannick Ngakoue, Justin Houston and Jadeveon Clowney to find homes. Buffalo rolling out a Miller-Floyd duo will take some pressure off Gregory Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa. While the Bills will still want to keep Rousseau as a regular cog when Miller returns, the Super Bowl contender wanted more firepower. With Miller now having suffered two ACL tears as a pro, high-end insurance makes sense. With the Rams ditching his four-year, $64MM contract two seasons in, Floyd will attempt to use the Bills to score a final notable payday.

This could be a menacing pass rush once Miller returns, with the Bills having targeted Floyd regardless of the future Hall of Famer’s health. It took the Bills a full year — Thanksgiving 2021 to Thanksgiving 2022 — to feel comfortable redeploying Tre’Davious White. ACL tears are not created equal, and Miller expressed confidence in an early return. With the 13th-year edge rusher much older than the ace cornerback, however, the Bills will need Floyd early. The Rams unleashed a fearsome edge duo two years ago; the Bills will hope it is at full strength by the stretch run.

The Patriots’ lead weapon during that run-crazed Monday night in Buffalo two seasons ago, Harris landed near the bottom of this year’s deep RB1 market. With some of the NFL’s best running backs seeing their pay reduced (or contracts jettisoned), Harris stood little chance in finding much of a market. Supplanted by Rhamondre Stevenson last season, Harris will attempt to complement James Cook. While Harris did rush for 15 touchdowns, the Pats rarely involved him in the passing game. That role generally leads New England to move on after one contract, and the Bills added a between-the-tackles backup.

A 2022 second-rounder who averaged 5.7 yards per carry last season, Cook is expected to be the leading man post-Devin Singletary. The Bills gave the Georgia alum just 89 rookie-year carries. He maxed out at 113 in a season with the Bulldogs. While Cook is on track to play a big role in Buffalo’s passing attack, he does not bring Jahmyr Gibbs-like college numbers in this era, having never eclipsed 300 receiving yards in a season. How Cook transitions to this bigger Year 2 role will be a key storyline in a stacked AFC East, which now includes both the Cook brothers. The Bills were briefly linked to Dalvin Cook, but he was more closely tied to the division’s other three clubs.

Re-signings:

A Poyer-or-Tremaine Edmunds retention scenario emerged for the Bills, who did manage to keep one of their defensive staples-turned-UFAs. Poyer hit the market but still ended up back in Buffalo. Set to run it back with Micah Hyde to keep the NFL’s longest-running safety tandem in place, Poyer is now 32. But a lucrative non-Jessie Bates safety market did not materialize, giving the Bills a chance to retain Poyer — after it looked like there was a real chance he would head elsewhere.

Hyde’s September neck injury represented a harbinger of what lie ahead for an injury-hounded Bills squad, and it put plenty on Poyer’s plate. The veteran delivered, intercepting four passes — his fourth Bills season with at least four picks — and earning Pro Bowl honors despite missing five games himself. This is Poyer’s third Bills contract. Despite the cap growth since Poyer inked his second Bills deal (two years, $19.5MM) back in 2019, no non-Bates safety securing a deal north of $8MM per year limited Poyer on the open market.

Poyer and Hyde, also 32, represent one of this century’s top safety duos. Assembled in Sean McDermott‘s first offseason as HC (but weeks before Brandon Beane replaced Doug Whaley as GM), the pair joined as low-middle-class free agents and has been instrumental in the franchise’s rise from obscurity to three-time reigning AFC East champions. The Bills have not held talks for a third Hyde contract, ahead of a platform year, but the latter is healthy going into his seventh year with the team.

With Hamlin on the cusp of turning his remarkable recovery into regular-season action, the Bills have a deep safety corps that now includes Rapp, who started 48 games with the Rams. With Rapp, Floyd and Edwards joining Miller (a year after the Saffold signing), the Bills have done well to catch some of Sean McVay‘s leftovers.

Notable losses:

The Bills effectively made their Milano-or-Edmunds choice two years ago, giving the older linebacker a four-year, $44MM deal that generated some head-turns at the time. Milano opted not to test free agency in 2021, agreeing to terms with the Bills on what was viewed at the time as a team-friendly contract. That still might be the case, but the ILB market did not heat up much this year. Only two off-ball ‘backers signed eight-figure-per-year accords during the 2023 free agency period.

Edmunds proved an outlier. His market exploded, with no ILB’s AAV coming within $7MM of what the Bears authorized. Chicago gave Edmunds a four-year, $72MM pact that included $41.8MM guaranteed at signing — the position’s third-highest number. With Allen extended and Diggs, Miller and Dion Dawkins on big-money deals, it was unrealistic for the Bills to pay two off-ball ‘backers upper-crust money.

Franchise-tagging Edmunds was not a realistic option. The tag’s formula grouping all linebackers together has led to 3-4 OLBs raising the price to the second-highest tag number — behind only quarterbacks. This will break up McDermott’s second long-running LB partnership; the seventh-year Bills HC mentored Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis for five seasons as well.

PFF graded Edmunds outside the top 50 at the position in 2020 and ’21 but slotted the former first-rounder in the top five last season. Edmunds earned the top ILB coverage mark from the advanced metrics website as well. The Bills have held a competition to replace Edmunds throughout the offseason, but the Terrel Bernard–Tyrel Dodson–A.J. Klein troika will have a difficult time producing Edmunds-level work. Although the Bills held talks with Edmunds, keeping him was essentially non-starter for the Bills this offseason.

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Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Bengals

August 27th, 2023 at 11:00pm CST by Adam La Rose

Following their run to the Super Bowl in 2021, it came as no surprise that the Bengals were once again a force in the AFC last year. A last-minute loss to the Chiefs in the conference title game ended their season but confirmed Cincinnati’s status as one of the league’s heavyweights. This offseason saw the franchise begin to face the task of retaining as many core players as possible, something which will become increasingly challenging.

At the top of the priority list sits an extension for quarterback Joe Burrow. After seeing Jalen Hurts, then Lamar Jackson and, most recently, Justin Herbert sign the NFL’s largest contracts in succession, a clear market has been set for Burrow. The Bengals have yet to hammer out a monster deal with their franchise signal-caller, but in the midst of negotiations on that front, they have kept much of their nucleus intact while making another investment aimed at better protecting him.

Free agency additions:

In 2022, each of the Bengals’ three most lucrative deals given to outside free agents were earmarked for offensive linemen (guard Alex Cappa, tackle La’el Collins and center Ted Karras). That came as no surprise, with Burrow’s sacks taken representing a major issue in need of resolution. The new faces up front helped the Bengals finish mid-pack in that respect (44) last year, but the play of left tackle Jonah Williams left enough to be desired that another major investment was deemed necessary.

Brown, 27, headlined a free agent class which featured a number of young right tackle options (as he himself once was), but few blindside blockers with his pedigree. The four-time Pro Bowler had a highly successful pair of seasons in Kansas City, continuing to earn solid but unspectacular PFF grades while helping the Chiefs turn their own offensive line renovation into another Super Bowl triumph.

Brown played out the 2022 season on the franchise tag after turning down an extension offer which included a higher AAV and guaranteed money. The Chiefs’ 2022 offer was for six years, however. Turning down that pact paved the way for a longer-than-anticipated stay on the open market this year, with Browns’ desire to remain a left tackle limiting the degree of interest teams showed in him (although the Jets and Steelers were among those which explored a deal with the Oklahoma product).

Nevertheless, Brown — whom the Chiefs wanted to retain but declined to tag for a second time — will be able to continue blocking for an elite AFC quarterback, as has been the case throughout his career. The former Ravens third-rounder played alongside Jackson before his desire to play LT full time led to his trade to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. If Burrow joins the other signal-callers in winning an NFL MVP award in 2023, Brown will likely have played a significant role in that feat.

The drop-off in guaranteed money from Brown to Scott and the other additions illustrates the degree to which the Bengals have turned their attention to retaining homegrown core contributors. The latter should still be counted on early in his Cincinnati tenure in particular, having proven himself worthy of a starting role during his final Rams campaign. Incremental increases in playing time over his first three seasons in Los Angles were followed up by a major jump in 2022.

Scott, 28, responded with career-highs across the board, notching a pair of interceptions while excelling in run defense. Weaknesses in coverage were exposed, however, leaving plenty of room for improvement within what should be a strong Cincinnati secondary. The Bengals could move on as early as next offseason given the structure of Scott’s deal, providing plenty of motivation to at least repeat last year’s statistical success.

The top of Cincinnati’s tight end depth chart has once again seen movement, with Smith being brought in as a pass-catching option. Injuries have defined the former second-rounder’s career in large part, as he missed the entire 2021 campaign and was limited to only eight contests last year. The flier taken on him by the Bengals could prove to be worthwhile if Smith can deliver on the promise shown when he was on the field in Minnesota. It is fair to wonder, however, where he will sit in the pecking order in a passing offense clearly led by wideouts Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd.

The backup quarterback spot has been up for grabs this offseason for the first time in the Burrow era. Siemian has only made six starts since his Broncos tenure ended in 2018, and he bounced around to five different teams between that point and his arrival in Cincinnati. The 31-year-old has managed to piece together a respectable career after entering the league as a seventh-rounder, but his underwhelming play (along with that of former UDFA Jake Browning) during the summer could very well leave the Bengals in the market for an addition under center before the regular season kicks off.

Re-signings:

Pratt is one of many Day 2 picks who have turned into dependable Bengals starters in recent years. The 27-year-old delivered personal bests in tackles (99), sacks (one), interceptions (two) and pass deflections (10) last season. The latter figure demonstrated his strengths in coverage, something which would have set him up well for a deal elsewhere on the open market despite the glut of capable options at the position in 2023.

Instead, the former third-rounder will remain in Cincinnati and reprise his role as an important member of the defense’s second level. That unit helped the Bengals rank seventh against the run in 2022, and similar success would not come as a surprise given the retention of several defensive mainstays in the past two years. While Pratt generally receives less acclaim than many other Bengals contributors, his continued presence will be welcomed on a team seeking to retain as many 20-something players as it can.

That goal has resulted in a slew of other low-cost depth deals, including one for Williams. In a year in which the Bengals’ backfield future was in doubt for quite some time, the former sixth-rounder appeared to be in line for an increased role in 2023. Williams has yet to score a touchdown during his limited usage, but his 5.5 yards per touch average points to potential in a complementary role. He will once again be able to serve in that capacity, but a deal giving him a larger opportunity down the road will likely need to come from another team.

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Offseason In Review: Minnesota Vikings

August 26th, 2023 at 11:30pm CST by Sam Robinson

The Vikings rode another dominant Justin Jefferson season to one of the most improbable 13-win showings in NFL history. After going 13-4 with a negative point differential, Minnesota completed a bit of a retooling effort. Some Mike Zimmer-era mainstays and standouts who helped Kevin O’Connell‘s first team are gone. As the NFC North enters a new chapter, the post-Aaron Rodgers years, its defending champion will have some key producers to replace.

Trades:

Not a cornerstone contributor, but Smith used Minnesota to bounce back after a quiet end to his Green Bay tenure. Smith, 30, finished last season with his third double-digit sack year, teaming with Danielle Hunter to form an imposing edge duo. Last season marked the Vikings’ first year with two 10-plus-sack performances since Kevin Williams and Lance Johnstone completed the feat in 2004. Although the Vikings employed Jared Allen and the Hunter-Everson Griffen tandem, Hunter and Smith produced a memorable season.

This accomplishment did not help the Vikings’ defense much; Ed Donatell‘s unit went 27th-28th-31st in DVOA, total defense and points allowed. New DC Brian Flores will coach Marcus Davenport, but as the Vikings went through with that addition, they dealt with a Smith issue. In a strange development, the former Packers standout bid farewell to the Vikes despite not having been released. Smith bizarrely sold his house, expecting the Vikings to shed his three-year, $42MM deal. The Davenport addition did make it seem likely the Vikes would move Smith, but the latter’s goodbye message came before the ex-Saints first-rounder committed.

Smith then joined Cook in limbo for months. Unlike Cook, however, the Vikes found a taker for Smith’s contract. Minnesota picked up two fifths for a ninth-year veteran, capitalizing — to a degree, at least — on the Browns’ interest in finding a better Myles Garrett wingman. Smith finished with 10 sacks and 24 QB hits, playing 16 games. Though, the veteran edge defender later said he would probably have rested a bit more were it not for gameday roster bonuses. The former Ravens draftee described wanting out to reach free agency, due to the Vikings only guaranteeing Year 1 of his pact. The Browns reworked Smith’s deal to make him a 2024 UFA.

Free agency additions:

Staying on the edge-rushing subject, the Vikings outmuscled the Falcons for Davenport. Rather than reunite with former position coach Ryan Nielsen, Atlanta’s new DC, Davenport will bet on himself in Minnesota. Davenport is a classic “prove it” player. He alternated solid seasons in New Orleans but ended with a down campaign, registering a half-sack in 15 games. In his past two odd years, however, the former first-round pick combined for 15 sacks and six forced fumbles. The Vikings will bet on Davenport, 27 next month, displaying that form. His next contract will hinge on his Minneapolis bounce-back effort.

The Cardinals said goodbye to Patrick Peterson in 2021, and they lost J.J. Watt for much of that season. Vance Joseph‘s defense still finished sixth in DVOA, helping a Cards team that had also lost DeAndre Hopkins reach the playoffs. Murphy resided as a central reason Arizona could withstand all that. The Cardinals deployed the 2019 second-round pick as a versatile piece, with Joseph using the Broncos’ Chris Harris playbook by shifting Murphy between the boundary and the slot.

Last season, Murphy established career-high marks in yards per target (6.0) and completion percentage allowed as the closest defender (63.8), though his passer rating-against figure (103.1) spiked from 2021. Nevertheless, he is set to replace Peterson once again. But Flores will not use Murphy, 25, as a true outside corner. Instead, the Vikings will deploy the Harris plan, with Murphy shifting inside in nickel packages (so, a lot of slot work). It was somewhat surprising to see Murphy available for less than $10MM per year, though that is congruent with the struggle Harris, Kenny Moore and other slot stalwarts have encountered since the position became a regular role. Murphy playing well in Minnesota can help raise this position’s ceiling, particularly since perimeter work will be on his docket as well.

"<strongAlthough Lowry is changing NFC North addresses, the Vikings still appear light on investments up front. They still have Harrison Phillips on a three-year, $19.5MM deal agreed to in 2022, but only one high draft choice is here. And Ross Blacklock is no lock (pun intended, I suppose) to make the 53-man roster. No other first- or second-round choices — or even a $7MM-per-year player — is part of the Vikes’ D-line.

Lowry started in six of his seven Packers seasons, displaying elite durability and occasional pass-rushing production. Prior to suffering a Christmas Day calf injury that ended his season two games early, Lowry had played 101 straight games. He finished with five sacks and four pass batdowns in 2021 but did so alongside Kenny Clark. No comparable disruptor is in place in Minnesota.

To go with receiving tight end T.J. Hockenson, the Vikes added Oliver. The latter’s run-blocking prowess brought a market. Pro Football Focus rated Oliver, 26, as the NFL’s second-best run-blocking tight end last season — behind only teammate Isaiah Likely. Oliver rated as an effective pass protector as well. The former Jaguars third-round pick will play alongside a group of homegrown offensive linemen, giving Kirk Cousins, Alexander Mattison and Co. some help.

Re-signings:

One of the NFL’s better-known RB2s of recent years, Mattison had eyed a Minnesota exit. With Dalvin Cook signed through 2025, the four-year backup came up in trade rumors before his contract year. The former third-round pick then said he did not expect to re-sign with the Vikings, but Minnesota’s offseason plan represented one of the grim developments this year brought for running backs. The Vikings did pursue David Montgomery, who landed a $6MM-per-year Lions pact. But they saved money by keeping Mattison. After Mattison backed up Cook throughout his rookie contract, Minnesota was willing to move forward with a slightly less skilled player at a fraction of the cost.

While Mattison’s AAV and guarantee do not move the needle, the contract being nearly entirely guaranteed did point to the early-March Cook trade rumors needing to be taken seriously. (Reachable incentives maxing out at $1MM are also available.) Calculating they could generate similar production from Mattison at $3.5MM per year than Cook at $12.6MM AAV, the Vikings effectively encapsulated most teams’ view of running backs in 2023.

Mattison provided quality off-the-bench work in relief of Cook, clearing 90 rushing yards in four of his six career starts. At 25 and having only 474 career touches on his resume, Mattison will have a chance to extend his prime longer than Cook will. The six-year starter is 28 and enters his first Jets season with 1,503 career touches, getting there despite entering the NFL just two years ahead of Mattison. Although the Vikings hosted Kareem Hunt, they look to view Mattison as a three-down player.

Multiple guards signed eight-figure-per-year deals in free agency, but the center market did not take off. As a result, several teams were able to bring back their starters. The Vikings joined the 49ers (Jake Brendel), Browns (Ethan Pocic), Panthers (Bradley Bozeman) and Jets (Connor McGovern) in re-signing a starting center. None of this quartet received more than $6MM per year, with a middle class forming at a position that still only has six active $10MM-plus AAV contracts.

PFF rated Bradbury 11th among centers last season, marking a noticeable step forward. Though, Dexter Lawrence certainly won his matchup with Bradbury in January. Although a “prove it” year could have been justified, the Vikings have Bradbury signed for three seasons — at a reasonable rate — with no guarantees beyond 2023. In keeping Bradbury, the Vikings retained their core of early-round O-linemen. For a second straight season, Minnesota will start five homegrown first- or second-round picks up front. Only New Orleans can match that setup.

Dalton Risner, a four-year Broncos guard starter, also visited the Vikings. But he remains unsigned. Schlottmann, an ex-Risner teammate, and Udoh are back in place as second-stringers. Udoh started at right guard throughout the 2021 season but returned to a bench role after the Ed Ingram draft choice. The veteran finished the season as Brian O’Neill‘s right tackle replacement. Schlottmann replaced Bradbury after the aggravated a back injury in a December car accident. O’Neill and Bradbury are healthy going into this season.

Notable losses:

Minnesota’s departures overshadow the arrivals, helping lead to Detroit’s status as the NFC North betting favorite. Kendricks started for each of the Zimmer-era playoff teams, rising to the All-Pro level. Thielen turned from Division II alum to rookie-camp pickup to capping his Vikings career in the top four in receptions, yards and receiving TDs. Cook passed Chuck Foreman for Vikings rushing yardage last season. This trio joined Hunter, Harrison Smith and others in helping the Vikings create a steady contender without quarterback stability. That is not exactly common in the NFL, though it was Minnesota’s M.O. for a while.

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Offseason In Review: Las Vegas Raiders

August 24th, 2023 at 10:35pm CST by Sam Robinson

The Raiders were unable to follow up their 2021 playoff berth with a .500 season, going 6-11 in Josh McDaniels‘ first year. This generated some faint one-and-done buzz for the polarizing coach. Mark Davis squashed those rumors early, but the second-chance HC faces pressure to make progress in Year 2. The former Patriots staple will go into the season with more familiar faces around him, including one that will inject more risk into the Raiders’ equation.

Free agency additions:

Not only did the Raiders zero in on Garoppolo, they did so after checking on Tom Brady. It is quite possible Garoppolo would have found himself as McDaniels’ second choice behind Brady once again, had the legendary passer not retired for a second time. Brady’s retirement left just one notable ex-Patriots passer on the market, and Garoppolo represents a multiyear stopgap option. Although the contract would allow for a 2024 separation with just $11.25MM in dead money, the Raiders did not use a high draft choice on a quarterback. For the time being, the team has a Garoppolo-centric QB plan in place.

The Patriots’ decision to ship Garoppolo to the 49ers for a second-round pick back in 2017 came with controversy, and the Bill Belichick–Robert Kraft matter affected another franchise’s QB foundation. Rather than sign Kirk Cousins in 2018, the 49ers committed to Garoppolo with a then-record extension. Garoppolo, 31, rewarded the team, which went 38-17 and won four playoff games with the former second-rounder at the controls.

Of course, the immobile passer’s San Francisco stay also brought injuries that have come to define his career. A torn ACL, high ankle sprain preceded 2021 calf, thumb and shoulder injuries. Then, December’s foot fracture ended Garoppolo’s 49ers tenure. All told, Garoppolo has undergone four surgeries and missed 30 games due to injury since that September 2018 ACL tear led to his status as the NFL’s most injury-prone quarterback. Garoppolo’s most recent surgery, to repair the Jones fracture, led to a mini-storyline. The Raiders added a waiver to the middling passer’s contract, and although his passing a physical and beginning training camp on time eliminated the prospect of a quick separation, the addendum illustrates the risk the Raiders are taking with their new QB.

Setting injuries aside (a difficult ask with this particular player), Garoppolo piloted the 49ers to two NFC championship games and Super Bowl LIV. He also rescued the 49ers from their Trey Lance dilemma in 2022, circling back after an offseason of trade rumors to take over once Lance went down in Week 2. Garoppolo began the 49ers’ 12-game win streak, though Brock Purdy‘s stunning form showcased how beneficial Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers’ weaponry can be. QBR placed Garoppolo 12th in 2019, 13th in 2021 and 16th last season, and he completed more than 67% of his passes in 2017, 2019, 2020, ’21 and ’22.

System familiarity aside, McDaniels and GM Dave Ziegler have placed a sizable bet on Garoppolo remaining upright and providing an upgrade on Derek Carr, who, if nothing else, offered durability. The Raiders were also not seriously connected to Aaron Rodgers, giving the Jets free access for the future Hall of Famer.

The Raiders leaned into the Patriots West vibe with Hoyer, who missed most of last season with a concussion and considered retirement this offseason. Going into his age-37 season, Hoyer is the NFL’s second-oldest active quarterback (behind Rodgers). Hoyer had the 2014 Browns in playoff contention — before the Johnny Manziel debacle unveiled itself — and quarterbacked the 2015 Texans to the playoffs. He is well past that prime, and while fourth-rounder Aidan O’Connell may be the next man up if/when Garoppolo goes down, Hoyer — a McDaniels charge for four seasons in New England — took first-team reps during Las Vegas’ offseason program.

Keeping this Foxborough-to-Vegas theme going, Meyers is back at the scene of his best-known NFL sequence. The former UDFA’s lateral-gone-bad does not define his career, as he was the steadiest Patriots wide receiver post-Julian Edelman. He is one eight former Patriots offensive players on the Raiders’ roster. Meyers and Garoppolo required the biggest commitments, with the former one of the top options in a shaky free agent WR class.

Meyers, 26, collected the second-most guaranteed money in this year’s class; only Allen Lazard‘s $22MM to rejoin Rodgers eclipsed it. Meyers did not rank inside the top 55 in yards per reception in any of the past three seasons, and he famously set an NFL record for the most receiving yards before scoring a touchdown. But Meyers became Mac Jones‘ security blanket, notching back-to-back 800-plus-yard seasons — the second in the Pats’ disjointed post-McDaniels offense — and found the end zone six times last year. As defenses key on Davante Adams, Meyers will be an important part of McDaniels’ second Vegas attack.

The Raiders operated strangely at cornerback, letting Rock Ya-Sin walk and taking fliers on low-cost options during the spring. Shelley, Long and Facyson combined to secure barely $3MM guaranteed, and after training camp, it looks like none of them will start. The Raiders are likely to use Nate Hobbs and fourth-rounder Jakorian Bennett alongside Peters, who signed just before camp after being linked to the Raiders for months.

A Raiders fan growing up in Oakland, Peters will be counted on to reprise his takeaway-crazed form. Now two years removed from an ACL tear that nixed his 2021 season, the ex-Chiefs first-rounder should be a decent bet to bounce back in Vegas. Coming off the knee injury last year, Peters surrendered seven touchdowns as the nearest defender and allowing a passer rating of 113.7 — a mark far north of his previous two Ravens figures — and missed the final three games of the season with a calf strain.

Peters, 30, cannot be assessed without noting his elite turnover impact. Despite missing the 2021 season, the 6-foot corner leads the NFL in INTs (32) since his 2015 rookie season. The former Defensive Rookie of the Year has also forced 11 fumbles and scored seven TDs. This production offsets his coverage gambles to a degree.

Epps, 27, used a strong 2022 offseason to become an every-down player for the Eagles, who trotted out the former backup on 1,096 defensive snaps — more than double his previous high. PFF did not rate Epps highly (70th) among safeties in his breakout year, but the NFC champions relied on him as C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Avonte Maddox missed time. As the Silver and Black feature some questions at corner, Epps and Tre’von Moehrig will start at safety.

Re-signings:

The McDaniels regime did seem to coax quality play from an offensive line that came into last season with a number of questions. PFF ranked the Raiders’ front 10th, and it drove Josh Jacobs to the rushing title. That said, it was surprising to see the Raiders largely punt on outside acquisitions this year. Van Roten, a former Panthers and Jets regular with 54 career starts, is the only notable outside hire up front. As Van Roten attempts to unseat Bars, the Raiders will run it back elsewhere up front. The 49ers gave Garoppolo Trent Williams and Mike McGlinchey over the past three seasons; will the Raiders regret not doing more as they attempt to protect their fragile investment?

PFF graded Bars as by far the worst Raiders O-line starter, placing him as a bottom-10 guard in 2022. But it is possible Las Vegas uses the same right side it did last season. Eluemunor, who played for McDaniels in New England in from 2019-20, has started at both guard and tackle in Vegas. The Raiders are considering Eluemunor at both spots, with 2022 seventh-rounder Thayer Munford in contention to unseat the veteran, 28, from the RT post he manned last year. Van Roten and Eluemunor give the Raiders some options and experience up front. The team also considered moving left guard Dylan Parham, a 2022 third-rounder, to center. But Gruden-era addition Andre James remains there.

A third-round pick in Gruden’s first draft back with the team, Parker represented another option for the Silver and Black. But his career is now at a crossroads, thanks to a second straight IR placement in August.

Notable losses:

Certainly not the best quarterback in Raiders history, Carr stuck around the longest as a starter. Although Ken Stabler was with the Raiders for 13 seasons, AFL icon Daryle Lamonica delayed the Hall of Famer’s QB1 run. As such, Carr’s 142 starts are by far the most by a QB in franchise history. Carr, 32, signed a three-year, $121.5MM extension shortly after McDaniels and Ziegler took over. But the contract included a February escape hatch. The Raiders got out early, benching Carr before Week 17 and ending a nine-year partnership weeks later.

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Offseason In Review: Atlanta Falcons

August 23rd, 2023 at 10:30pm CST by Sam Robinson

Winners of seven games in four of the past five seasons, the Falcons have both overachieved talent-wise — during the Arthur Smith years, at least — while largely hovering off the radar. After two clear transition years that brought substantial dead money into the equation, the Falcons’ Smith-Terry Fontenot operation has moved to a point where playoff contention — in what looks like the worst division in the weaker of the two conferences — should be expected.

While the Falcons’ quarterback plan overshadows the rest of their 2023 blueprint, Smith’s seat is not as hot as Ron Rivera‘s in Washington. The Commanders’ QB approach most closely matches the Falcons’, but the NFC South presents a better opportunity to try a mid-round signal-caller. And Desmond Ridder is set to enjoy a flashy array of weapons. In addition to the team avoiding a push for a better option under center while upgrading around the incumbent, its moves to improve its defensive situation defined the offseason.

Extensions and restructures:

Day 1 of the legal tampering period shaped the Falcons’ offseason. The team reached a few agreements with defensive starters and began its busy day by acquiring Jonnu Smith via trade. But the most expensive transaction transpired minutes later. Four years after going in the first round, Lindstrom secured a guard-record contract.

When the Colts gave Quenton Nelson his $20MM-per-year windfall, that AAV checked in $3.5MM north of any other guard’s. Given Nelson’s accomplishments, it was a bit surprising to see his salary surpassed six months after that Indianapolis contract was finalized. But in a league in which Patrick Mahomes has slipped to the bottom half of the top 10 in QB money, Lindstrom, 26, passing Nelson so soon should not be shocking. While Nelson has three first-team All-Pro nods to Lindstrom’s none, the latter did rate as Pro Football Focus’ top 2022 guard — by a wide margin — to help the Falcons become a top-three rushing team. The salary cap is back on the rise, and Lindstrom also secured $7.2MM more in guarantees at signing compared to Nelson.

This marked a big day for the Boston College alum, who joins Matthews and Kaleb McGary as eight-figure-per-year O-linemen on Atlanta’s roster. With the Falcons planning to build around Ridder’s rookie contract, this monster Lindstrom re-up makes sense. Extending Lindstrom on this level and finding room for the number of defensive additions this offseason brought would probably have been unrealistic had the Browns not lured away Deshaun Watson at the 11th hour last March.

Free agency additions:

After two less eventful offseasons on the acquisition front, Fontenot spent to fill big needs. Safety represented the Falcons’ top upgrade area. Since its Keanu Neal–Ricardo Allen safety tandem split, Atlanta had seemed to be treading water at this position. While Richie Grant remains in position as a starter, the Falcons paid up to acquire an upgrade at the other post. This year’s safety market featured two clear tiers: Bates, then everyone else. Bates, 26, required an AAV that more than doubled every other free agent safety. The Falcons, who came into the tampering period behind only the Bears in cap space, splurged for the five-year Bengals starter.

Juan Thornhill, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Jordan Poyer, Donovan Wilson, Marcus Epps and ex-Bates teammate Vonn Bell all signed deals worth in the $6MM-$8MM range per annum. After playing on the franchise tag, Bates blew away his peers, following Tremaine Edmunds in commanding an action-packed market at a lower-tier position. Bates has missed three career games and arrived in Atlanta after a 14-interception Cincinnati tenure. He added two picks during the 2021 postseason, which also included a tipped pass that set up a Bell INT and led to a field goal that sent the Bengals to Super Bowl LVI.

The Bengals had hoped to re-sign Bell but had long viewed Bates as out of their price range, as their low-guarantee offer revealed before the July 2022 tag deadline. Now, Bates — PFF’s No. 1 overall safety in 2020 — is tied to the fourth-highest safety AAV and the position’s second-highest guarantee.

Beyond Bates, the Falcons’ decision to hire longtime Saints defensive line coach Ryan Nielsen — an ex-Fontenot New Orleans coworker — as their defensive coordinator shaped their defensive payments. Nielsen brought Onyemata, Ellis and Huggins with him from New Orleans. Prior to the Vikings winning out, the Falcons also attempted to reunite Nielsen with defensive end Marcus Davenport. While Davenport defecting to Atlanta as well would have ratcheted up this underrated rivalry, Onyemata and Elliss making Louisiana-to-Georgia treks bring two talents immensely familiar with Nielsen.

Among active players, only Cameron Jordan had spent more time on the Saints’ defense than Onyemata, who was with the team from 2016-22. Onyemata’s arrival predated Nielsen’s in New Orleans, but the new Falcons DC coached the veteran defensive tackle for most of his Saints run. Working as a full-time Saints starter from 2019-22, Onyemata scored a bigger contract at 30 than he did at 27. Playing out a three-year, $26MM deal, the University of Manitoba alum fared well as an inside rusher alongside Jordan. Onyemata notched two five-plus-sack seasons over the past three years and has totaled 48 QB hits over the past four. He will team with Grady Jarrett, who has not enjoyed much in the way of complementary support since Fontenot and Smith arrived.

This Elliss contract could bring nice value for the Falcons, one of the many teams who preferred a midlevel linebacker contract rather than going after Edmunds this offseason. While Trey Hendrickson turned a contract-year surge into a run as one of the game’s best pass rushers, Elliss’ Saints run featured even fewer contributions ahead of his platform year. New Orleans had used Elliss as a starter exactly once before last season. In 2022, however, the former seventh-round pick came out of nowhere to tally seven sacks, 78 tackles and two forced fumbles. PFF ranked Elliss seventh among off-ball linebackers last year.

Nielsen’s familiarity with the walk-year wonder should put him in a better positions to sustain that form, though some risk comes with this agreement. But that is mitigated by the modest sum the Falcons authorized. After having the Deion Jones extension on their books for three-plus years, the Falcons have Elliss’ $7.2MM-per-year deal as their top ILB contract. By trading Jones last season, however, the Falcons are still on the hook for $12.1MM in 2023 dead money.

Two well-known cap casualties followed the ex-Saints to Atlanta. The Falcons are spending $10MM combined on Campbell and Dupree, who profile as stopgaps. Campbell is certainly a more proven player; Dupree plays a position from which the Falcons need more production. Only the Bears finished below the Falcons in sacks last season. Atlanta totaled just 21, with only Jarrett (six) surpassing four.

Dupree, 30, did not live up to the five-year, $82.5MM contract he signed with the Titans in 2021. As the Titans struggled to fill their OLB post opposite Harold Landry, Dupree became since-fired GM Jon Robinson‘s most expensive mistake there. The former first-rounder tallied just seven sacks in two Titans slates, missing 12 games in that span. Nearly three years removed from an ACL tear, Dupree may have one more shot to show he is a starter-caliber rusher. But the ninth-year veteran is a Georgia native who totaled 19.5 sacks during his final two Steelers seasons.

Like Jordan in New Orleans, Campbell has used his 30s to make a decent Hall of Fame case. Making vital contributions in Arizona, Jacksonville and Baltimore, Campbell turned down an opportunity to join a Jets team loading up with vets around Aaron Rodgers. Citing off-field opportunities and a connection with the staff in Atlanta, the 6-foot-8 D-lineman/kick-blocking phenom will accompany Onyemata in taking heat off Jarrett. It will be interesting to see how the Falcons deploy Campbell, who has been expected to play more as a defensive end despite a 300-pound frame. Any edge help the soon-to-be 37-year-old can provide would benefit a Falcons steam still featuring questions here, but Campbell has also made steady impacts as an interior D-line presence.

Although Ridder did not need to win a camp battle like Sam Howell did in Washington, the Falcons still spent high-end backup money on Heinicke. Like the Marcus Mariota contract, this deal gives Atlanta an out after Year 1. But Heinicke, 30, represents insurance against Ridder sputtering. Coming off the street to rejoin Rivera at a time of great need in Washington, Heinicke went toe-to-toe with Tom Brady in a stunningly effective wild-card performance. Over the next two seasons, Heinicke went 12-11-1 as a starter. The Commanders needed him as a full-timer after Ryan Fitzpatrick failed to make it out of the first half in Week 1 of the 2021 season, and after Carson Wentz‘s hand injury, the former UDFA helped the 2022 team rebound from a 1-4 start.

Heinicke brings obvious limitations, but the 6-1 passer’s starter experience provides a safety net should Ridder — an oft-questioned figure this offseason — burn the Falcons for placing so much faith in him. Only two backup QBs topped Heinicke’s $7MM salary last season.

Ahead of his age-30 season, Hollins comes to Atlanta after a surprisingly productive Las Vegas year. With Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller battling injuries and inconsistency, Hollins became the de facto No. 2 target in Josh McDaniels‘ 2022 offense. The Raiders paid up to upgrade this spot, giving Jakobi Meyers $11MM per year to reunite with his former Patriots OC, but Hollins totaled 690 receiving yards and four touchdowns during his Vegas one-off.

The Falcons will take a flier to see if that is an outlier for a player without another 250-yard season on his resume. The seventh-year veteran is in position to start alongside Drake London. In terms of cap allocations, only the Packers have spent less on their receiving corps that the Falcons, who have $15.3MM devoted to this position on their 2023 payroll.

Re-signings:

With Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard franchise-tagged, right tackle stood as this free agency class’ top position. Each of the three anchors agreed to deals on Day 1 of the legal tampering period. While Jawaan Taylor and Mike McGlinchey fetched big-ticket agreements with the Chiefs and Broncos, respectively, McGary’s market did not soar to the same level. During their busy first day on the market, the Falcons found room to retain McGary on a mid-tier accord.

McGary’s $11.5MM AAV is tied for 10th among right tackles — well south of the $20MM and $17.5MM averages Taylor and McGlinchey scored — and his guarantee-at-signing figure sits outside the top 15. This can be traced to McGary’s smaller sample size as a promising blocker. But rather than a “prove it” deal, the Falcons now have McGary signed to a manageable contract through his age-30 season. It perhaps would have made more sense for McGary to accept a “prove it” pact in order to return to free agency after another strong season, but even with Matthews signed for $18.5MM per year, plans to build around Ridder’s rookie deal made this tackle setup palatable for the Falcons.

McGary allowed a whopping 13 sacks as a rookie, and the Falcons declined his fifth-year option in 2022. But the 2019 first-rounder responded with a big contract year, grading as PFF’s No. 4 overall tackle on the strength of an elite run-blocking campaign to this free agency perch. The Falcons may have locked down an ascending talent on the cheap, and if McGary cannot sustain his 2022 form, the $15MM guarantee will not become especially punitive. With high-profile rookie contracts at quarterback and each of its skill positions, the Falcons have smartly invested big dollars in their O-line.

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