Particularly in the NFC, the early part of this season has brought considerable parity. Many would-be contenders have stumbled out of the blocks. Two 2-4 NFC squads — the Cardinals and Saints — will match up tonight in a game that will put the loser in an early-season bind.
A 2-4 start does not bring the historic uphill battle 0-3 does. Since the playoffs expanded to six teams per conference in 1990, four squads — including the 49ers last season and the 2019 Titans — have rebounded from that record to reach the conference championship round. The 1993 Oilers crafted a more remarkable pivot, rallying to earn a bye. No 2-4 team has ever reached a Super Bowl, however.
The Broncos are probably the most disappointing of the 2-4 lot. Their Russell Wilson–Nathaniel Hackett marriage has produced a spree of listless outings, leading to social media backlash and big-picture questions. Denver’s offense ranks 32nd in scoring and has particularly struggled coming out of halftime. The Broncos’ offense has accounted for three third-quarter points all season, turning up the heat on Hackett, who joined Kevin O’Connell and Dan Quinnas Broncos HC finalists.
This staggering unproductivity has marginalized a dominant defense, one that has seen 2021 draftees Patrick Surtain II and Baron Browning — after an offseason position change — take second-year leaps. Denver has the 18th-toughest schedule remaining, per Tankathon, though the team has both Chiefs contests still to come. As injuries mount for the once-promising team, its road to the playoffs appears difficult.
Cleveland and Pittsburgh join Denver at 2-4 but are just one game back of the AFC North lead. The Browns’ controversial Deshaun Watson acquisition led most to temper expectations for this season, with Watson banned 11 games. Cleveland also enjoyed a favorable early-season schedule, but the Jacoby Brissett-led team is 1-3 in games in which it has been favored. The Browns (10th-easiest remaining schedule, record-wise) brought back Jadeveon Clowney this offseason and have Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward on top-market contracts. Both Garrett and Ward have missed time, and Joe Woods‘ defense ranks 30th. Although the Browns have hoarded cap space — likely because of Watson’s contract — their quarterback-in-waiting’s cap number spikes from $9.4MM to $54.9MM from 2022 to ’23, placing a bit more emphasis on this season’s result.
The Steelers (11th-easiest remaining schedule) upset the Buccaneers despite most of their secondary joining T.J. Watt in missing Week 6, but the team is making a transition at quarterback. The Steelers’ Mitch Trubisky acquisition, his Week 6 rally notwithstanding, did plenty to create the early-season hole. Kenny Pickett figures to make the bulk of the starts the rest of the way for a team that has not finished under .500 since 2003.
Initial Jaguars optimism has faded somewhat, after a three-game skid. Trevor Lawrence has climbed to 13th in QBR, from 28th as a rookie, and Travis Etienne‘s health is starting to pay dividends. The front-seven investments the Jags made this year have led to improved talent defensively; Mike Caldwell‘s unit ranks ninth in points allowed. Jacksonville (13th-toughest remaining schedule) also plays in a division featuring winning teams with major questions, though its perennial struggles against presumptive non-threat Houston indicates Doug Pederson‘s team may be at least a year away from contending.
Aside from the Broncos, the Raiders (minus-5 in point differential) are probably the most interesting team here. Las Vegas’ new regime paid up for Davante Adams and extended prior-regime investmentsDerek Carr, Darren Waller and Maxx Crosby. Those moves have thus far led to close losses. The Raiders (ninth-easiest remaining schedule) are 1-4, with their Patrick Graham-coordinated defense ranking 28th. The AFC West does not appear as menacing as initially projected, and 1-4 is not the death sentence 0-3 is historically. But this Raiders retooling effort will need multiple offseasons, the next one including (presumably) a first-round pick.
Rallies against the Falcons and Raiders, respectively, lifted the Saints and Cardinals to 2-4. Both teams are also just one game out in their parity-fueled divisions.
Arizona’s three-extension offseason (Kyler Murray, Kliff Kingsbury, Steve Keim) has not instilled much confidence this will be the year the Murray-led operation becomes a serious threat. Arizona (15th-toughest remaining schedule) ranks 22nd both offensively and defensively, and its DeAndre Hopkins-less receiving corps led to numerous pass-catching combinations. The team has traded for both Marquise Brown and Robbie Anderson, but the Hopkins sidekicks will not share the field together for a while due to Brown’s injury. Kingsbury is already considering ceding play-calling duties.
The Saints (seventh-easiest remaining schedule) have again run into receiver staffing issues. Jarvis Landry has missed most of the season, and Michael Thomas‘ foot injury will lead to Thursday being the former All-Pro’s 29th missed game since 2020. Jameis Winston‘s back fractures have turned Andy Dalton into New Orleans’ regular starter. While the Dalton investment (one year, $3MM) has proven important, Dennis Allen‘s defense — a top-five unit in each of the past two seasons — ranks 29th.
Do any of the other sub-.500 teams — most of which residing in the rebuilding sect — have a chance to rebound this season? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on this year’s collection of struggling teams in the comments section.
With a new regime in place, the Raiders could be looking to move on from a pair of 2019 first-round picks. According to ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler, the Raiders have talked with teams about trading defensive lineman Clelin Ferrell and safety Johnathan Abram.
Since Dave Ziegler and Josh McDaniels were brought on board, the Raiders have been busy reworking their roster. As one NFC executive told Fowler, the organization is valuing players “who fit their personality,” and it’s not overly surprising that they’d be looking to move from a pair of players who were drafted by the former front office.
Abram’s name has been “circulating a lot,” per Fowler. The safety missed the majority of his rookie campaign with a torn rotator cuff and labrum, but he’s otherwise been a reliable defender for the Raiders. He finished with 116 tackles in 2021, with Pro Football Focus grading him as an above-average linebacker (especially when it came to pass rush). However, the Ziegler/McDaniels combo had little time to evaluate Abram before having to decide on his fifth-year option, which they ultimately declined. The 25-year-old is still seeing a significant role in 2022; he’s started all five games while collecting 32 tackles. However, after appearing in almost all of the team’s defensive snaps through the first four games, he was limited to only 75 percent of the Raiders defensive snaps in Week 5.
Similar to Abram, Ferrell also didn’t have his fifth-year option picked up by the new front office. The fourth-overall pick in 2019, the defensive lineman has disappointed during his time with the organization. He started all 26 of his appearances through his first two seasons in the NFL, compiling 6.5 sacks. He didn’t start any games in 2021, and while he’s seen time in all five games in 2022, he’s still appearing in less than half of his team’s defensive snaps.
Meanwhile, Fowler notes that the Raiders could be a match in a trade with New England if the Patriots decide to move on from wide receivers. Ziegler has already pulled off a handful of trades with his former organization, and he played a role in the Patriots adding their current crop of wideouts. Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor are among the names that have been mentioned as traded candidates, per Fowler.
Nate Hobbs played with a broken hand against the Chiefs in Week 5, but the Raiders will shut him down for a chunk of their midseason schedule. Hobbs is now on IR.
The Raiders already have one of their Week 1 starting cornerbacks — Anthony Averett — on their IR list. Averett will be eligible to return from Las Vegas’ IR in Week 7, though it is not yet known if he will be ready to do so. Averett encountered a similar injury to Hobbs, suffering a broken thumb in his Raiders debut.
This stalls Hobbs’ strong start to his career. The 2021 fifth-round pick became a Week 1 starter last season and has been a Raider regular ever since. An Illinois alum, Hobbs made nine starts for the Raiders as a rookie. Pro Football Focus rated the slot corner as one of the top-performing corners in 2021; he rates 29th through five games this year. Hobbs’ emergence helped the Raiders feel comfortable enough at the position to unload 2019 second-round pick Trayvon Mullen on roster-cutdown day, but Las Vegas is suddenly thin at this position.
Rock Ya-Sin is now the only Raiders Week 1 cornerback starter left standing, though Averett should be expected to return at some point during Hobbs’ four-game shutdown. The Raiders have used 2020 fourth-round pick Amik Robertson as a primary starter in Averett’s absence, and he will presumably continue to work with the first-stringers sans Hobbs. Las Vegas used Sam Webb, a rookie UDFA out of Division II Missouri Western, on 24 defensive snaps in Kansas City.
The team has some interesting options on its practice squad as well, and Hobbs’ ailment could lead to Nickell Robey-Coleman‘s 2022 debut. The Raiders signed the veteran slot corner just before the season began. The team also has Javelin Guidry, a former Jets slot player, on its P-squad. Robey-Coleman, 30, has played 127 career games and worked as the top slot corner for multiple franchises.
The Raiders also added former Chargers contributor Tevaughn Campbell to their taxi squad Monday. The Bolts used Campbell as a fill-in starter at points, trotting him out as a first-stringer 11 times from 2020-21. The former UDFA reached an injury settlement with the Chargers last month, allowing him to move off their IR list and into free agency.
OCTOBER 16: The NFL will not make a decision with respect to a possible suspension for Adams until the legal process has concluded, as Rapoport writes. Adams will be disciplined under the league’s personal conduct policy — which includes an NFL investigation and a decision by Judge Sue L. Robinson– as opposed to game-day rules. That is presumably because the incident took place after the game was over and did not involve another player.
OCTOBER 12: Momentum may be moving toward a Davante Adams suspension. Kansas City police charged Adams in connection with his postgame shove of a photographer, according to KCTV5’s Shain Bergen (on Twitter).
Initially reported as a misdemeanor assault charge, Adams is actually facing a city ordinance violation, Ian Rapoport of NFL.com tweets. This checks in a bit below misdemeanor assault. It carries a $250-$1K fine and/or up to 180 days in jail.
The NFL is reviewing this matter. While the Raiders’ Week 6 bye gives the league a bit more time, a decision should be expected before Las Vegas resumes its season. A suspension and/or a fine are considered to be in play after Adams shoved the photographer to the ground following the Raiders’ one-point loss Monday night.
This certainly qualifies as one of the more unusual developments in recent NFL history. The photographer Adams shoved filed charges against the 29-year-old pass catcher not long after the incident. Adams apologized shortly after the encounter, but this matter is not going away. The All-Pro wideout is due in court Nov. 10.
The police report indicates the photographer, Ryan Zebley, sustained whiplash and a possible minor concussion as a result of Adams’ shove. Upon filing these charges, Zebley indicated he went to a Kansas City-area hospital as a result of this unusual postgame incident. The video evidence available should allow for an expedited NFL investigation, and should the result end with an Adams ban, it would certainly mark a notable chapter in the Raiders-Chiefs rivalry.
Las Vegas’ post-bye schedule starts with games against the Texans, Saints, Jaguars and Colts. The team also lost Darren Waller to a hamstring injury against the Chiefs, leaving the Pro Bowl tight end uncertain for Week 7. Being without Adams to start that stretch would obviously further limit the Raiders’ offense, which has a reduced margin for error thanks to Monday’s one-point loss that dropped the team to 1-4. Adams is in the first season of a five-year, $140MM contract. Although he caught two touchdown passes against the Chiefs, Adams’ Raiders tenure is off to a rocky start because of this issue.
In the immediate aftermath of the Raiders’ one-point loss to the Chiefs, Davante Adams shoved a photographer to the ground (video link). Adams walked into the tunnel toward the locker room at Arrowhead Stadium soon after.
While the ninth-year wide receiver issued an unprompted apology to the man he shoved soon after, NFL discipline could come his way. A fine and potentially a suspension is on the table for the Raiders wide receiver, Tom Pelissero of NFL.com reports (on Twitter). The NFL is reviewing the situation.
Adams, 29, has never been suspended during his NFL career. Given the video evidence available, it should not be long before the Raiders learn if their top pass catcher will face a suspension. The Raiders have a Week 6 bye, and Jeff Darlington of ESPN.com notes no timetable exists for Adams punishment (Twitter link).
The photographer has since filed a police report, alleging assault. The man claimed, via TMZ, he needed to be hospitalized after the fall. Adams shoved the photographer after the man had walked in front of him on the way to the locker room. This came minutes after the Raiders failed to convert a fourth-and-1, a play that featured Adams and Hunter Renfrow colliding. The collision finished off the Chiefs’ comeback win.
It seems a notable fine, at the very least, will come Adams’ way. But the Raiders may need to brace for a short suspension as well. Given Las Vegas’ 1-4 start, any Adams absence would be a seminal development regarding hopes the team has of crawling out of this hole and into playoff contention.
The former Packers All-Pro is in the first season of a five-year, $140MM contract. The Raiders have already played without Renfrow this season and went through most of Monday night’s game without Darren Waller, who sustained a hamstring injury. Losing Adams would obviously be a considerable issue for a team battling uphill after a tough start.
Young continues to struggle to find a long-term home in the NFL. After Baltimore drafted him and traded him in his second year to the Rams, it took Young over a full season with the team to earn a starting role. When he was finally starting on a consistent basis, Los Angeles traded him once again to Denver where he started six straight games before being inactive for the remainder of the year. Young signed in the offseason with the Raiders but was released ahead of roster cut deadlines. He signed to the Buccaneers practice squad days before the season started and was active for the last four weeks, only playing on special teams. He’ll likely land on another practice squad somewhere in the league, perhaps with one of his former teams as both Baltimore and Los Angeles have experienced some injuries to their linebacker depth.
