December 27th, 2022 at 11:22am CST by Adam La Rose
The Raiders suffered another underwhelming loss on Christmas Eve, which essentially ended any hope the team had of making a late push into the playoffs. Their defense is also set to be shorthanded for the final two weeks of the campaign.
Pass rusher Chandler Jonesand linebacker Denzel Perrymaneach exited Vegas’ loss to Pittsburgh on Saturday. Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports that the former suffered an elbow injury, while the latter has a dislocated shoulder (Twitter link). As a result, it would come as little surprise if both players were to be shut down until the 2023 season.
Head coach Josh McDaniels suggested as much when speaking to the media (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Tashan Reed). The news, in all likelihood, marks a disappointing end to a season in which nothing has gone according to plan for a Raiders team which had significant expectations after their eventful offseason. The team sits at 6-9 thanks in large part to a number of blown double-digit leads and their below-average ranking in several major defensive categories.
Jones was a key reason the Raiders’ pass rush was predicted to take a step forward. The four-time Pro Bowler was a free agent target of the Bills before they ultimately landed Von Miller. Jones signed in Vegas on a three-year, $52.5MM contract in March, allowing the team to pair him Maxx Crosby– who himself signed a massive extension days earlier. Even in the latter stages of his career, Jones, 32, was tapped for a productive stint with his new team operating as a compliment to the latter.
Instead, Jones has not lived up to the expectations brought on by his pedigree and new deal. With the exception of a three-sack performance against the Chargers in Week 13, the former Patriot and Cardinal has been ineffective in rushing the passer. Jones sits at 4.5 sacks and 19 QB pressures on the year, figures which fall well short of what he produced last season in Arizona.
Perryman has, on the other hand, remained a consistent presence in the middle of the Raiders’ defense in 2022, his second season with the team. He put himself on the radar for a new deal last year when he totaled 154 tackles en route to earning Pro Bowl honors for the first time in his career. His 83 stops in 2022 (including a career-high 14 for loss) lead the team, whose run defense has fared better than their play against the pass.
A very narrow path to the postseason still remains for the Raiders to make the playoffs; it includes winning the team’s final two contests against the 49ers and Chiefs. Doing so will require improved play on offense relative to their last outing, but also on defense with an undermanned unit.
The NFL announced their 2023 Pro Bowl rosters this evening. Besides the ability to list the accolade on their career resume (plus the monetary bonus that comes from participating in and winning the game), many players had a financial incentive for wanting a Pro Bowl nod. We’ve collected some of the notable Pro Bowl contract incentives below, most via ESPN’s Field Yates on Twitter (unless noted).
Geno Smith‘s contract bonus came via a specific incentive that required not only Pro Bowl recognition but 20 touchdown passes, according to Yates (on Twitter). Smith hit that TD mark back in Week 13. The impending free agent is set to cash in following a breakout campaign during his age-32 season.
Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard has a more complex bonus worked into his contract. According to CBS Sports’ Joel Corry (on Twitter), Howard is one step closer to earning a $1MM bonus thanks to his Pro Bowl nod, but he’ll also need Miami to improve in either wins, points allowed, TDs allowed, total defense, interceptions, average net yards allowed per rushing play, or turnover margin.
Speaking of the Dolphins, the organization saved a chunk of future money since one of their players didn’t make the Pro Bowl roster. As Daniel Oyefusi of the Miami Herald tweets, Tua Tagovailoa‘s fifth-year option would have increased from $22MM to $28MM if he earned a Pro Bowl nod.
One of this season’s most disappointing teams, the Buccaneers still have a chance to host a playoff game. But their Tom Brady partnership may be nearing an end. The all-time great is viewed as more likely than not to be elsewhere in 2023.
This would open the door to either an unusual free agency or a second retirement. Winding down his age-45 season, Brady will likely not be sought after on the level he was in 2020. His career-low QBR (since the stat’s 2006 introduction, at least), lowest yards per attempt figure since 2002 (6.3) and age will undoubtedly give teams pause. But if the 15-time Pro Bowler wants to keep pushing the quarterback age boundary — a recently discussed scenario — there stands to be a market.
It still makes sense to include the 49ers here. They passed on a true pursuit in 2020, when Jimmy Garoppolo was coming off a season in which he piloted the team to Super Bowl LIV, but Brady was loosely linked to seeking a move to his native Bay Area during his mini-retirement this offseason. The Bucs shut down the prospect of trading Brady’s rights anywhere. San Francisco has an again-injured Garoppolo tied to a restructured deal that prevents a franchise tag — a similar arrangement to Brady, who also cannot be tagged thanks to his 2022 restructure — and Trey Lance will enter 2023 having only played one full season in his five post-high school years. The 49ers boast a rare skill-position trio that includes three All-Pros, and their situation could open the door to Lance spending a year learning behind arguably the greatest to ever do it.
Josh McDaniels looks like he will make it to a second Raiders season, even though his first has not gone as hoped. McDaniels taking over as Patriots OC led to Brady morphing from a promising young quarterback to a superstar, and he was Brady’s OC for 11 years. The Raiders have a narrow window to tradeDerek Carr, who will see $40.5MM guaranteed on Day 3 of the 2023 league year. A Carr-Davante Adams breakup might not go over well among the longtime friends, but McDaniels and fellow ex-Patriots staffer Dave Ziegler are calling the shots. The Raiders pursued Brady in 2020, and he famously had a spirited reaction to the then-Jon Gruden-led team backing off.
Tua Tagovailoa has a rather vocal cast of supporters, and the Dolphins did just pay a stiff penalty for attempting to bring Brady and Sean Payton to town. Payton seems out of the question now, with Mike McDaniel faring well in his first year, and Tagovailoa still sits second in QBR. The Dolphins have one of the great speed-receiver duos in NFL history, and vice chairman Bruce Beal is on the TB12 board. Though, Beal’s central role in the tampering scandal is believed to have affected his standing with the team. Would Stephen Ross try to land one of the assets that ultimately cost a first-round pick?
While it would look quite strange to see Brady with the Jets, they have both young weaponry and a vastly improved defense. That combination wooed Brady to Tampa. Timeline-wise, the Jets mirror the 49ers at the QB position. They roster the passer taken one spot ahead of Lance (Zach Wilson), though the Jets have more intel on their top-three QB pick than the Niners do theirs. Mike White is a free agent at season’s end, and the team is already being connected to veteran options — Garoppolo and Carr among them. Brady probably should be at least mentioned here.
Brady and Mike Vrabel played together for nine seasons, and the Titans were part of the free agency derby two years ago. They bowed out before it ultimately came down to a Bucs-or-Chargers call, and Ryan Tannehill has one season remaining on the extension the Titans gave him shortly after their Brady pursuit ended. The Titans cannot match the above-referenced teams for weaponry, however.
Bill Belichick did not exactly equip Mac Jones for a second-year leap, naming a career defensive coach (Matt Patricia) as de facto OC. Jones has regressed in Year 2, and there was a brief QB controversy with fourth-round rookie Bailey Zappe. Uncertainty about the 2021 first-rounder’s long-term standing has entered the equation. If LeBron James could return to Cleveland, Brady rejoining Belichick and Robert Kraft for a farewell season should at least be floated. Brady and Kraft remain close, as evidenced by the Bucs QB traveling to the Patriots owner’s wedding during a Bucs road trip earlier this season. But the Patriots would need to get to work on receiving help. They almost certainly would not be the favorites if Brady decided to play a 24th season.
Reports of friction between Brady and Bruce Arians and Brady and OC Byron Leftwich have emerged over the past two seasons. Arians’ exit has undoubtedly affected this Bucs iteration, which has dealt with issues along its offensive line throughout the year as well. But the Bucs have fallen from the second-ranked scoring offense in 2021 — a season in which Brady led the league with 5,316 passing yards and 43 TDs — to 28th. The Bucs’ chances at winning a terrible NFC South aside, they may soon face the prospect of the Brady bill coming due. The Bucs not re-signing Brady before his contract expires in March would mean a $35.1MM dead-money hit due to the void years on his deal.
Brady is the only 45-year-old starting QB in NFL history, and retirement was believed to be the direction he would go at this season’s outset. As he plays out a down season, there will be more calls for a true retirement this time. A 10-year deal to be FOX’s lead analyst awaits.
As this offseason showed, teams are more willing to follow through with big QB swings. Complex QB offseasons have been the 2020s norm. More teams could potentially enter the mix, if they are convinced Brady’s struggles this year can be attributed more to his circumstances and less on a decline. Unless Brady calls it quits immediately after this season, the topic of his 2023 employer will gain steam. How will it end? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on this oft-discussed player in the comments section.
Zach Wilson will start for the Jets in Week 16, Robert Saleh confirmed. This was the expected Jets path, given the updates on Mike White‘s injured ribs. The short-week assignment made White’s road back tougher, and the team’s preferred starter will have a mini-bye to recover ahead of a possible Week 17 return. White attempted to receive clearance from as many as 10 independent doctors last week, and Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com adds he is still consulting with doctors. But the Jets are proceeding cautiously with the fifth-year passer. Saleh does not believe the injury White suffered against the Bills is a season-ending malady, Brian Costello of the New York Post tweets. White is due for unrestricted free agency in March.
Here is the latest from the quarterback landscape:
After Mitch Trubisky played in most of the past two Steelers games, the team is ready to move its rookie back into action. Mike Tomlin expects Kenny Pickett to start Saturday against the Raiders, Teresa Varley of Steelers.com tweets. Pickett has now sustained two concussions this season.
The conditional 2024 pick the Browns obtained from the Panthers for Baker Mayfield will be a fifth-round choice, David Newton of ESPN.com notes (via Twitter). Mayfield needed to hit the 70% snap barrier with the Panthers. The new Rams starter did not come especially close to that, being demoted and then waived.
Derek Carr‘s recent Raiders extension — a three-year, $121.4MM pact — gives the team a three-day window following Super Bowl LVII to jettison the quarterback and save $40.5MM. Carr trade rumors are nothing new; he loomed as a trade candidate for much of the Jon Gruden period. But a GM informed the Washington Post’s Jason La Canfora he does expect Carr to finally be dealt. Despite the Raiders’ struggles, Carr ranks 10th in QBR. The team’s blockbuster trade for Carr college teammate Davante Adams also might make a trade a tough sell, and the prospect of the Raiders needing to find an upgrade — an impediment to a trade during Gruden’s stay — also makes this a risky path. In his ninth season and having made 141 career starts, Carr is the longest-tenured starting quarterback in Raiders history.
Making a push for a second MVP, Patrick Mahomes offered a bit of insight on how he ended up in Kansas City. The sixth-year Chiefs passer said, after a productive meeting with Andy Reid ahead of the 2017 draft, he spoke with multiple teams who indicated they would draft him. During an appearance on Travis and Jason Kelce‘s New Heights podcast (video link), Mahomes said he informed the Chiefs they would need to trade up to at least No. 11 to land him. Mahomes said he did not know the extent of the Saints’ interest at the time — New Orleans held the No. 11 pick — but the Cardinals’ affinity for then-Texas Tech prospect has been known for some time. Arizona picked 13th that year. The Browns also traded their No. 12 pick to the Texans, who chose Deshaun Watson. The Chiefs traded their No. 27 choice, a 2017 third-rounder and their 2018 first to the Bills to secure the No. 10 draft slot. That ended up being a franchise-changing decision.
December 21st, 2022 at 10:18am CST by Sam Robinson
Christmas Day’s Broncos-Rams matchup will pit two of the league’s most disappointing teams against one another, and the Seahawks and Lions will have a vested interest in this contest. The loser of this game will give one of the latter teams — via the Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford trades — a better chance of landing a top-three pick in next year’s draft.
At 1-12-1, the Texans are cruising home. The Bears are on their heels, potentially set to become the team that selects the 2023 draft’s first non-quarterback. But eight four- or five-win teams reside behind these two, providing some intrigue for fanbases whose squads are not moving toward the playoffs.
The NFC South’s plunge toward becoming perhaps the worst division in NFL history carries draft stakes as well. The Falcons, Saints and Panthers each have five wins, and Atlanta, Carolina and Philadelphia (via the Saints’ pre-draft trade this year) would see those picks land in the top 10 as of now. The division-leading Buccaneers would see their draft slot check in no higher than 19th. Should one of Tampa Bay’s challengers vault the current first-place team in the standings, the Bucs would see their 2023 first-round slot rise considerably.
For non-playoff teams, the draft order will be determined by the inverted 2022 standings — plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule — with playoff squads being slotted by their postseason outcome and regular-season record. Here is how the draft order looks entering Week 16:
Houston Texans: 1-12-1
Chicago Bears: 3-11
Detroit Lions (via Rams)
Seattle Seahawks (via Broncos)
Arizona Cardinals: 4-10
Indianapolis Colts: 4-9-1
Atlanta Falcons: 5-9
Carolina Panthers: 5-9
Philadelphia Eagles (via Saints)
Las Vegas Raiders: 6-8
Jacksonville Jaguars: 6-8
Houston Texans (via Browns)
Pittsburgh Steelers: 6-8
Green Bay Packers: 6-8
Seattle Seahawks: 7-7
New England Patriots: 7-7
New York Jets: 7-7
Detroit Lions: 7-7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-8
Tennessee Titans: 7-7
Washington Commanders: 7-6-1
Los Angeles Chargers: 8-6
New York Giants: 8-5-1
Baltimore Ravens: 9-5
Denver Broncos (via 49ers through Dolphins)
Dallas Cowboys: 10-4
Cincinnati Bengals: 10-4
Kansas City Chiefs: 11-3
Minnesota Vikings: 11-3
Buffalo Bills: 11-3
Philadelphia Eagles: 13-1
Next year’s draft will feature a 31-pick first round. The Dolphins’ penalty for the Tom Brady–Sean Paytontampering scandal cost them their 2023 first-round choice.
Derek Carr and the Raiders offense will be getting some significant reinforcement. The Raiders have activated tight end Darren Waller and wide receiver Hunter Renfrow from injured reserve, reports ESPN’s Field Yates (via Twitter).
Waller hasn’t seen the field since October but it took the front office a month to finally place him on IR, delaying his required four-game absence. After two-straight 1,000-yard campaigns in 2019 and 2020, Waller was limited to 665 receiving yards in 11 games in 2021. His hamstring injury has limited him to only five appearances in 2022, with the former Pro Bowler hauling in 16 receptions for 175 yards and one score. Waller inked a three-year, $51MM extension with the Raiders back in September.
Renfrow has dealt with a handful of injuries in 2022, limiting him to 21 receptions in six games before being sidelined. The 26-year-old was coming off a breakout campaign in 2021 that saw him haul in 103 receptions en route to a Pro Bowl nod. The wideout inked a $32MM deal with the organization during the offseason.
Without Waller and Renfrow in the lineup, the Raiders have been leaning heavily on Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs, with both players having already topped 1,000 yards from scrimmage. The Raiders second-leading receiver this season has been Mack Hollins, who has hauled in 47 catches for 588 yards and three touchdowns.
The Raiders made a handful of additional moves as they prepare for tomorrow’s game against the Patriots. Las Vegas promoted offensive linemen SebastianGutierrez and JordanMeredith to the active roster. To make room for today’s transaction, the Raiders cut wide receiver DJ Turner and tight end Jacob Hollister.
The Ravens hosted free agent guardJohn Simpson on a visit yesterday, a little less than a week after his release from Las Vegas, according to Field Yates of ESPN. Simpson cleared waivers and is now free to determine where he will sign next.
The Raiders decision to waive Simpson was bit of a shock. Only just last year, Simpson started at left guard for all 17 regular season games as well as the Raiders lone postseason game against the Bengals. Simpson started the first two games of this season before being demoted to a backup role for both guard spots.
It’s an interesting move to watch for the Ravens. They recently started backup center Trystan Colon-Castillo at right guard in place of an injured Kevin Zeitler last weekend. Kicking the tires on Simpson might indicate that Zeitler’s injury could be more serious. Their current selection of backups includes last year’s third-round pick, guard Ben Cleveland, this year’s fourth-round rookie tackle Daniel Faalele, and veteran Patrick Mekari, whom they paid last year to serve as their utility lineman.
No deal developed on the trip, but the Ravens may keep Simpson on their shortlist in case they lose a starter enroute to a possible postseason berth.
Here’s another recent free agent rumor from around the AFC, this one pertaining to Simpson’s former team:
The Raiders worked out free agent wide receiverKeke Coutee today, according to Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston. Coutee has played with the Texans and Colts over his five-year career. He had a strong start in the NFL, catching 83 passes for 941 yards and four touchdowns in 23 games with Houston. Since getting waived by the Texans before last season, Coutee has been with the Colts, taking a largely reduced role. In eight games with Indianapolis, Coutee has only caught two passes. He did serve as the Colts’ punt returner for six games this year, as well. With Hunter Renfrow on injured reserve, Las Vegas may be looking to add some depth to its receiving corps. They currently only roster four healthy wideouts: Davante Adams, Mack Hollins, Keelan Cole, and DJ Turner.
Igwebuike is being elevated for the second time this season. Starting rookie running back Kenneth Walker has returned to the lineup but running back and return man DeeJay Dallas missed a second straight week of practice, meaning Igwebuike will likely have return duties while backing up Walker and Travis Homer.
Smith will be undergoing surgery for a nagging bone spur, according to Dan Duggan of The Athletic. The surgery will necessitate a recovery period of about four months, so Smith’s 2022 campaign has come to an end.
Parks re-signed with the Jets this offseason after being claimed by the team last December and starting two games. Despite starting another game this season, Parks has spent most of time on special teams in 11 games this year.
DECEMBER 14: The Cowboys have claimed Mullen off waivers, per Garafolo (Twitter link). Dallas has been dealing with multiple injuries at the position, including the Achilles tear recently suffered by Anthony Brown. That has let the team in search of depth options late in the campaign.
The most recent example of that was the practice squad deal signed by veteran Mackensie Alexanderlast week. Mullen will likewise get an opportunity play at least a rotational role during Dallas’ closing games of the regular season and, presumably, the playoffs, aiming to rebuild some of his value along the way.
DECEMBER 13: A full-time starter during much of his Raiders run, Trayvon Mullen could not secure a first-string spot with the Cardinals. The team will move on from the fourth-year cornerback, according to NFL.com’s Mike Garafolo (on Twitter).
Arizona sent a conditional draft choice to Las Vegas for Mullen on cutdown day in August. Had Mullen been active for 10 games, the pick would have become a 2023 sixth-rounder. Because the former second-rounder only suited up for eight, the pick will be a seventh.
Still, this represents a disappointing development for both the Cardinals and Mullen. The Clemson product had started 31 games during his three Raiders seasons. Although he played a season-high 42 defensive snaps Monday night, the Cards are still moving on. Mullen only surpassed 30 defensive snaps in one game — the loss to the Patriots.
In limited work, Mullen allowed a career-high 12.1 yards per target and a staggering 156.7 quarterback rating as the closest defender in coverage this season. A Cardinals team that spent much of the offseason in need at corner traded for Mullen just as it was finalizing its initial 53-man roster, but the Raiders’ new regime was planning to cut him. That led to the low-end compensation for a player who was a full-time starter during Jon Gruden‘s time with the Raiders.
The 40th overall pick in 2019, Mullen landed on IR twice last season. Foot trouble led to both stints, and Mullen underwent foot surgery during the spring. He began the Raiders’ training camp on their active/PUP list and did not begin practicing until mid-August. Mullen did not make his Cardinals debut until Week 3 of this season. Arizona has used Marco Wilson and journeyman Antonio Hamilton ahead of Mullen alongside Byron Murphy this season.
Mullen joins Alex Leatherwood and Johnathan Abram as highly drafted players from the Raiders’ Gruden-Mike Mayock era to be waived this year. Both Leatherwood and Abram are still tied to their rookie deals, via waiver claims (two in Abram’s case). Mullen will hit free agency if he is not claimed by Wednesday afternoon.
