December 30th, 2022 at 10:56pm CST by Sam Robinson
The Raiders’ Derek Carr decision has become this week’s top NFL storyline, and it sets up an interesting trade market for a player who has been loosely involved in trade rumors for years. It may not have been Josh McDaniels‘ decision to move in this direction. At least, not right now.
McDaniels and GM Dave Ziegler met Monday and Tuesday nights discussing their quarterback plan, and while a benching was mentioned as a possibility, Vic Tafur of The Athletic views it as likely McDaniels and Ziegler were planning to keep Carr as the team’s starter to close out the season. Mark Davis looks to have played a role in the decision that led to Jarrett Stidhambeing announced the starter and Carr leaving the team for the time being, Tafur adds (subscription required).
Carr has played for four six Raiders HCs, counting interims Tony Sparano and Rich Bisaccia, over his nine-year career. The GM that drafted Carr, Reggie McKenzie, extended him at $25MM per year during the 2017 offseason. While the Jon Gruden period brought steady trade rumors, the Raiders hung onto their starter. Carr became the longest-tenured starting QB in Raiders history and now owns the team’s all-time passing records — by a substantial margin.
McDaniels and Ziegler extended him this year, albeit with the much-discussed February escape hatch, but interviews with the ex-Patriots duo and other GMs this offseason curiously did not feature the Raider interviewers discussing Carr in a positive light. Coaching and GM candidates were surprised to hear Raiders officials’ Carr assessments during the job interviews, according to Tafur, who adds Davis has been lukewarm on the starter for a long time. Davis and former Raiders VP of player personnel Ken Herockled the coach-GM search this year, and the owner ended up letting McDaniels and Ziegler make the call on Carr.
The new Raiders power brokers settled on the half-measure extension — a three-year, $121.4MM deal that includes the out three days after Super Bowl LVII — and it looks like the parties will aim to capitalize on the narrow trade window. They will explore doing so despite Davante Adamsseeking a trade to Las Vegas to reunite with Carr. If Carr goes, it will be interesting to see how Adams’ Vegas future unfolds.
The Raiders taking the opportunity to make the $40.4MM bonus — Carr’s full 2023 base salary and $7.5MM of his 2024 base pay — another team’s responsibility would cost them barely $5MM in dead money. That is quite the low sum associated with dealing a quality starter less than a year after the extension ink dried, but Carr agreed to the terms and landed a no-trade clause. That will protect the three-time Pro Bowler, who should have options once trade talks commence.
Davis was in place as the team’s owner when McKenzie drafted Carr 36th overall in 2014, and after several post-Rich Gannon misfires by the organization, Carr offered stability — albeit without giving his team a top-tier option under center — and durability. He has only missed two career regular-season games, but it looks like the owner is ready to move on. Carr’s inability to lead a game-tying drive against the Bengals in the wild-card round last season gnawed at Davis, per Tafur, despite the quarterback piloting four straight wins to help Bisaccia become the rare interim coach to lead his team to the playoffs. Bisaccia received consideration for the full-time gig, but Davis passed, leading the longtime special teams coach to Green Bay.
Carr remains a Raider partially because Gruden backed out of the Tom Bradypursuit two years ago, leading to some colorful Brady language re: Carr. Gruden viewed Brady as too old at that point, Tafur adds. Brady was preparing for his age-43 season at that point, and although the Raiders joined other teams in being connected to the legendary signal-caller, he ended up deciding between the Buccaneers and the Chargers. It is not certain the Raiders would have beaten out the Bucs for Brady’s services, but with McDaniels now running the show, look for Brady — ahead of an age-46 season he is not a lock to pursue — to be connected to the Raiders again.
December 29th, 2022 at 10:03pm CST by Sam Robinson
Wednesday’s unusual development — Derek Carrleaving the Raiders following the news of his benching — makes it fairly clear the sides are expecting to part ways soon. This opens the door for the first full-fledged search for a new Raiders starter since they selected Carr in Round 2 in 2014, and it moves a proven quarterback to the trade block.
The Raiders backed away from trading Carr in the past, and the 49ers’ Jimmy Garoppolo saga this year shows how presuming a separation can be premature. But it certainly looks like the Raiders plan to move Carr. There will be interested teams, but the acquiring franchise would need to pick up a $40.4MM guarantee and prove appealing enough Carr would waive his no-trade clause. Where will the 31-year-old passer end up?
A few teams will be searching for a quarterback after acquiring one last year, but some parties will be those that sat out the 2022 carousel. The Jets figure to be a Carr suitor. They have seen their 2021 investment — No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson — bomb during his two-season run as a primary starter. The defense the Jets rebuilt this offseason no longer gives Wilson a lengthy NFL onramp, and the BYU product may not be ready even with the benefit of a long runway. With Wilson perhaps on the way out midway through his rookie deal, the Jets adding Carr’s through-2025 contract would make sense.
We broached this subject upon Wilson’s initial benching last month, and it would put the Jets — who employ ex-49ers OC Mike LaFleur as their play-caller — to an interesting decision. Going after Carr in February would cut off a LaFleur-Garoppolo reunion in March. While Garoppolo’s checkered health history may now place him behind Carr in teams’ hierarchies, the former has extensive familiarity with LaFleur.
Carr, 31, becoming available also complicates the Giants’ path. They have seen a solid season from Daniel Jones, with the Dave Gettleman-era investment working with a bottom-tier receiving corps to lead the team to the playoff precipice. With a more proven option available, would the Joe Schoen–Brian Daboll duo preemptively nix Jones negotiations by trading for Carr? If Jones leads the Giants to the playoffs, the prospect of seeing him with better receivers in 2023 — though, at a much higher price — would seemingly be interesting, and he is six years younger than Carr.
Tom Brady–Raiders rumors may be relentless over the next several weeks, provided the legendary passer does not actually retire this time around. The current expectation, barring retirement, is for Brady to leave the Buccaneers to finish his career. This would open a spot for a veteran quarterback to pair with a Super Bowl nucleus, albeit one that has, particularly on offense, underwhelmed to an alarming degree this season. The Bucs were in the quarterback market during Brady’s first retirement, but timing also may rule them out of the Carr sweepstakes. A Carr move in February — a month before Brady’s free agency — would lead arguably the greatest quarterback ever out of town. That would be quite the strange ending to this memorable Bucs chapter.
If Carson Wentz‘s comeback does not produce a Commanders playoff berth, he could well be on the move for a third straight offseason. Washington can cut bait free of charge. This franchise has searched for QB continuity ever since the Kirk Cousins franchise tag years, having entered six straight seasons with a new starter. Carr, who has missed two regular-season games due to injury in his career, would provide that.
He would also cost more than Wentz, who remains attached to a $32MM-per-year Eagles extension he inked in 2019. Wentz is tied to just $20MM and $21MM base salaries over the next two years. Carr’s deal includes future bases of $32.9MM (guaranteed in a trade), $41.9MM ($7.5MM of which would be guaranteed) and $41.2MM. The Commanders employ Jack Del Rio, who coached Carr for three seasons, as defensive coordinator.
The Saints traded their 2023 first-round pick to the Eagles and ditched their original 2022 QB plan early this season. Benching Jameis Winston for Andy Dalton has not moved the needle in terms of wins, though Pro Football Focus surprisingly rates Dalton as a top-five QB this season. Dalton’s deal expires at season’s end. New Orleans, per usual, resides 32nd in terms of projected 2023 cap space. The Saints sit $53.9MM over the projected 2023 salary ceiling, per OverTheCap. While Mickey Loomis has gotten out of worse predicaments, adding Carr’s contract would be a new challenge for the seasoned GM. The Saints employ Carr’s first NFL HC (Dennis Allen), though he was only with Oakland for a few Carr games before being fired.
Carolina has attempted bigger swings at QB over the past two offseasons, offering a first-round pick and change for Matthew Stafford and offering three and change for Deshaun Watson. The Panthers are preparing to chase a QB again. Is re-signing Sam Darnold a viable option, or will David Tepper try and make a notable upgrade. Carr might not qualify as a huge splash, but he would likely provide an upgrade for a team that has intriguing pieces at several positions.
Neither of the teams that made the Matt Ryan trade have surefire answers for 2023, though Carr might not be a true fit for either the Colts or Falcons. Indianapolis is barreling toward securing its first top-five pick since the Peyton Manning injury year produced Andrew Luck. After trying veterans repeatedly, Indianapolis could have a chance to land an impact prospect. Desmond Ridder being an unchallenged starter would be a risk for the Falcons next year, but they still are on the rebuilding track. That said, Arthur Smith is going into Year 3. Carr pairing with Kyle Pitts and Drake London would be interesting.
Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on this developing situation in the comments section.
The Raiders’ depth at cornerback isn’t appearing to improve anytime soon after the team placed Rock Ya-Sin on injured reserve. Ya-Sin is now one of six defensive starters on the Raiders IR joining cornerback Anthony Averett, linebackers Jayon Brown, Divine Deablo, and Denzel Perryman, and defensive end Chandler Jones.
Ya-Sin was acquired during the offseason in a rare straight-up trade with the Colts in exchange for defensive end Yannick Ngakoue. Ya-Sin and free agent addition Averett were going to be relied upon heavily this season as Las Vegas looked to replace two starting cornerbacks from 2021. Casey Hayward departed in free agency for the Falcons while Trayvon Mullen was traded just prior to the start of the 2022 season in exchange for a conditional seventh-round pick that would only turn into a sixth if Mullen was active for the final two weeks of the NFL season. Considering he’s on the inactive list tonight for the Cowboys, it’s safe to say that the pick Las Vegas received from Arizona in the trade will remain a seventh rounder.
Ya-Sin and Averett both stepped up to the plate, starting games alongside returning starter Nate Hobbs, to start the year. Injuries would affect both athletes’ seasons, though. Averett missed four straight weeks after getting knocked out of the season opener and has missed the team’s last four contests dating back to the start of December. Ya-Sin hasn’t played since suffering a knee injury in a Week 13 win over the Chargers. With the Raiders on the brink of elimination from postseason contention, Ya-Sin’s 2022 season could be over, barring a series of miracles that find Las Vegas in the playoffs for the second straight season.
Since Ya-Sin’s recent injury, the Raiders have experimented a bit with whom to start across from Hobbs. The first game without Ya-Sin saw the team start undrafted rookie Sam Webb, utilizing Tyler Hall, an undrafted player from 2021, as a fifth defensive back when needed. The next week, Las Vegas started veteran Sidney Jones and fifth defensive back Hall, but utilized Amik Robertson the most opposite Hobbs. In their most recent game, Robertson got the start as Hall continued his fifth-man role.
In those games, the Raiders’ cornerback group hasn’t been challenged too much with games against Baker Mayfield, Mac Jones, and Kenny Pickett. Expect that to change as the Raiders are set to face the 49ers and rookie Brock Purdy, who are firing on all cylinders, and the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes.
December 28th, 2022 at 10:03pm CST by Sam Robinson
In a development that certainly points to the Raiders exploring a separation, Derek Carr will not be with the team to finish the regular season.
Carr will step away from the Raiders for their final two weeks of the season, Ian Rapoport of NFL.com tweets. Discussions between Carr and Raiders brass led to this outcome, per Rapoport, and the ninth-year passer will not attend practices or the team’s final two games.
Themed around preventing distractions, this latest Carr news is not exactly in stride with a team merely making a performance-based change at quarterback. This will allow Carr to avoid answering questions about his Raiders status, and that status figures to come up often between now and the critical February window his new contract created.
The Raiders will start offseason pickup Jarrett Stidham for the final two games. Practice squad arm Chase Garbers will back up the former Patriots draft choice. Stidham has thrown 61 career passes — 13 as a Raider — and has never started a game. With the fourth-year passer not exactly a live candidate to vie for Las Vegas’ 2023 starting job, this benching opens the door to a Carr trade or release.
Carr’s contract calls for a $40.4MM payment due three days after Super Bowl LVII, giving the Raiders a chance to arrange a trade. A trade will be complicated by Carr’s no-trade clause and the prospect of a snafu scuttling a deal in the month between an agreed-upon swap and the start of the 2023 league year, the first date trades can become official. Still, recent winter QB trades have occurred, providing a blueprint of sorts for the new Raiders regime. The Lions sent Matthew Staffordto Los Angeles, and the Chiefs dealt Alex Smith to Washington; each trade occurred in January. But a deal falling through would put the Raiders on the hook for the $40.5MM guarantee.
A team that agrees to acquire Carr via trade would inherit a through-2025 contract that contains base salaries of $32.9MM (2023), $41.9MM (2024) and $41.2MM (2025). The Raiders agreeing to trade Carr before that February vesting date would put the acquiring team on the hook for that 2023 salary and $7.5MM of the 2024 payment. Carr, 31, would be an upgrade for many teams, but the bonus does add a wrinkle here. The Colts-Falcons Matt Ryan swap this year only involved Indianapolis picking up a $7.5MM roster bonus.
It will be interesting to see how the Raiders navigate any potential Davante Adams complications, though the receiver is under contract through 2026. The longtime Packers standout sought a trade to reunite with his college teammate and signed a five-year, $140MM extension upon being dealt in March. Aaron Rodgers‘ year-to-year status in Green Bay impacted Adams’ trade ask, and he will now work with Stidham to close his first Raiders season.
Carr trade rumors — once an offseason fixture — may actually produce a deal next year. With McDaniels once rumored to be on the hot seat, moving on from a proven veteran at this rather important position runs the risk of the Raiders downgrading at QB for 2023. But viable options — like ex-McDaniels pupils Tom Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo, who will probably be linked to the Raiders a time or two in the coming weeks — stand to be available, as the 2020s have brought continued high-action QB offseasons.
The Raiders may be making a big-picture move. For the first time in his career, Derek Carr will be the Raiders’ backup quarterback. Josh McDaniels announced Jarrett Stidham will start in Week 17.
Carr, 31, is the longest-tenured starting quarterback in Raiders history and the team’s all-time passing leader. He has started 91 straight games. But he threw three interceptions last week and now leads the league with 14 this season. Considering the structure of Carr’s contract, this decision could have long-term ramifications.
This move is for the rest of the regular season, per McDaniels, who said (via NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport, on Twitter) the Raiders will evaluate the younger quarterback as well as other younger players. The team is already shutting downChandler Jones and Denzel Perryman; other vets could follow. This could impact the AFC and NFC playoff races; the Raiders host the 49ers in Week 17 and the Chiefs in Week 18. For Las Vegas, however, this decision may bring a major change.
Months after McDaniels took over, he and GM Dave Ziegler authorized a second Carr extension — this one a three-year, $121.4MM deal — that locked down the ninth-year quarterback through 2025. But the contract gives the Raiders an out. Three days after Super Bowl LVII, $40.4MM — Carr’s $32.9MM 2023 salary and $7.5MM of his 2024 base — will become guaranteed. The Raiders, then, have a narrow window to find a trade partner.
Carr’s market should be expected to heat up after the Super Bowl, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com tweets, though the Pro Bowl QB’s extension does include a no-trade clause. That will complicate a potential deal. If the Raiders do move him, it would free up $29.3MM in cap space, Joel Corry of CBS Sports offers (via Twitter).
Raiders brass discussed the Carr plan over the past two nights, per The Athletic’s Vic Tafur, and Wednesday’s decision increases the likelihood Carr could be on the move in February. No trade can become official until the 2023 league year begins in March, but high-profile QB swaps — such as the Matthew Stafford deal or the Alex Smith exchange — have taken place around the Super Bowl in recent years. The Raiders sitting Carr now protects against an injury affecting the longtime starter’s value, even though the 6-9 team is not technically eliminated. On the fringes of “In the hunt” graphics, however, the Raiders are effectively looking ahead to next season.
Carr trade rumors persisted during Jon Gruden’s tenure, but given his performance level, the Raiders securing a replacement who could outplay him was difficult. Thus, Carr stayed on and steadily improved under Gruden. Under McDaniels this season, he has taken a step back. The former second-round pick has thrown nine INTs over his past five games, completing 57% of his passes in that span.
Were the Raiders to make Carr available, a few teams would likely be interested. The Jets, Commanders, Saints, Panthers and Colts are teams who could upgrade with Carr. Excepting the Colts, that lot will not hold top-five draft choices. The Commanders, Panthers, Colts and Saints were in this offseason’s QB market, while the Jets are likely to enter the mix in 2023. Zach Wilson may already be on the way out, and Mike White‘s contract is up after the season. If Carr becomes available, he would join Jimmy Garoppolo, Tom Brady and Daniel Jones as the top potential targets. Other QBs, as recent years have shown, may be on the trade market. But the Seahawks are aiming to retainGeno Smith. And it will take a Deshaun Watson-level package to pry Lamar Jackson from the Ravens, who are all but certain to use their franchise tag on the former MVP.
Carr has enjoyed an up-and-down run in Oakland and Vegas but offered the Raiders QB stability for the first time since Rich Gannon in the early 2000s. The JaMarcus Russell pick and Carson Palmer trade highlighted a wayward stretch between Gannon and Carr. The team is currently sitting in the No. 9 draft slot; multiple quarterbacks will likely be off the board by that point. Of course, moving Carr would give the team more assets to potentially climb in the draft. With Stidham (zero starts in New England) unlikely to be a true option for 2023, the Raiders will seemingly join the aforementioned teams in the QB market — provided they pull the trigger on a deal.
McDaniels’ previous HC stay — an eventful Denver tenure cut short before the end of his second season — featured him moving on from the team’s starting quarterback (Jay Cutler) just weeks into the polarizing HC’s stay. Multiple quarterbacks set for free agency — Brady, Garoppolo — have extensive pasts with the former Patriots OC. The Raiders potentially preparing to move on so soon after this year’s extension/trial balloon — and months after they acquired longtime Carr friend Davante Adams — will inject more intrigue into what promises to be another action-packed quarterback market.
December 27th, 2022 at 12:57pm CST by Adam La Rose
With two weeks remaining in the regular season, much is still to be decided both in terms of playoff positioning and the order of the upcoming draft. Five teams are still eligible to land the top pick.
The Texans remain in pole position to hold the No. 1 spot, but their win over the Titans (coupled with the Bears’ losing streak extending to eight games) leaves Chicago just a half-game away. The fact that the Bears would likely select a defensive player rather than a quarterback with the top pick adds considerable intrigue to the potential implications of them ending up with that slot.
With the Browns continuing to struggle even with Deshaun Watson back from suspension, there is a distinct possibility that four first-rounders which changed hands (including Cleveland’s top 2023 pick, part of the package they sent to Houston for Watson) land in the top 10. Another premium selection would obviously soften the blow of losing out on the No. 1 spot from the Texans’ perspective, should that take place.
The final Wild Card spot in each conference is still being contested by several teams, resulting in a logjam of 7-8 squads in the middle of the order. Several head-to-head matchups will be played out between those clubs, which could lead to plenty of change in their positioning over the next two weeks. The race for both the AFC and NFC South titles will also have a significant impact on the final order, given the average (at best) record each division’s winner will have at the end of the regular season.
For non-playoff teams, the draft order will be determined by the inverted 2022 standings — plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule — with playoff squads being slotted by their postseason outcome and regular-season record. Here is how the draft order looks entering Week 17:
Houston Texans: 2-12-1
Chicago Bears: 3-12
Seattle Seahawks (via Broncos)
Arizona Cardinals: 4-11
Indianapolis Colts: 4-10-1
Atlanta Falcons: 5-10
Detroit Lions (via Rams)
Carolina Panthers: 6-9
Las Vegas Raiders: 6-9
Philadelphia Eagles (via Saints)
Houston Texans (via Browns)
Seattle Seahawks: 7-8
Tennessee Titans: 7-8
New England Patriots: 7-8
New York Jets: 7-8
Pittsburgh Steelers: 7-8
Green Bay Packers: 7-8
Detroit Lions: 7-8
Jacksonville Jaguars: 7-8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-8
Washington Commanders: 7-7-1
New York Giants: 8-6-1
Los Angeles Chargers: 9-6
Baltimore Ravens: 10-5
Denver Broncos (via 49ers through Dolphins)
Dallas Cowboys: 11-4
Cincinnati Bengals: 11-4
Kansas City Chiefs: 12-3
Minnesota Vikings: 12-3
Buffalo Bills: 12-3
Philadelphia Eagles: 13-2
Next year’s draft will feature a 31-pick first round. The Dolphins’ penalty for the Tom Brady–Sean Paytontampering scandal cost them their 2023 first-round choice
