The NFL’s wide receiver market hit a new high-water mark this offseason with Ja’Marr Chase receiving $40.25MM per year from the Bengals less than a year after Justin Jefferson became the first WR to reach a $35MM APY. D.K. Metcalf also negotiated a strong deal with the Steelers worth just under $33MM per year.
A rising tide lifts all boats, so the boom in wide receiver pay should benefit a talented 2022 draft class that became extension-eligible this offseason. Leading the pack with 279 receptions for 3,249 yards in the last three season is former No. 10 pick Garrett Wilson, who has started negotiating a long-term deal with the Jets.
Wilson has been New York’s top receiver since he joined the team and projects to play a foundational role in their new offense under offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand. Wilson will also reunite with Ohio State teammate Justin Fields and should be his most trusted target off the bat with little competition for targets. That could position the 24-year-old receiver for a strong 2025 that could significantly raise his price tag if the Jets don’t get an extension done before the season.
Right now, negotiations will likely start around $30MM per year, the low end of the NFL’s WR1 market. Brandon Aiyuk, Tyreek Hill, and Amon-Ra St. Brown are making the same amount, per OverTheCap, and five more wideouts have an APY of $32MM or more.
Wilson seems to belong to the first group. He ranks eighth in receptions and 10th in receiving yards among WRs since 2022 with at least 1,000 receiving yards in each year. However, his career-best 2024 numbers don’t come close to Aiyuk, Hill, or St. Brown in their best seasons, so Wilson may have trouble arguing that he deserves a bigger contract than all three. Though he won Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2022, he has yet to receive Pro Bowl or All-Pro recognition, another factor that will likely keep him from a top-dollar deal.
Wilson can still construct a strong case out of his age, durability, and adaptability and argue that he’s an ascending player who has yet to play his best football. He will turn 25 this year after appearing in all 51 of the Jets’ regular-season games since being drafted despite his slight 185-pound frame. He has also demonstrated clear growth into a WR1 role with 83, 95, and 101 receptions in his first three years with noticeable improvements at the catch point last season. (Wilson posted a 56.5% catch rate in 2022 and 2023; in 2024, it jumped to 65.6%.)
However, Wilson has not been especially efficient in the pros. He ranks 19th among all WRs in yards per game (63.7) since 2022 with a pedestrian 6.93 yards per target. He has also struggled to reach the end zone with just 14 career touchdowns on 469 targets.
Advanced metrics from Pro Football Focus (subscription required) tell a similar story. Wilson’s 51.7% contested catch rate in 2024 was a career-high, but only ranked 20th among receivers with at least 85 targets. His 1.69 yards per route run ranked 32nd in that same group, though he did lead all WRs with 25 missed tackles forced after the catch.
Wilson’s production alone would likely place his next contract just outside the top 10 at his position (and therefore under $30MM per year), but context is important. The Jets’ offense around him has been terrible with three straight bottom-10 finishes in yards per game, according to Brian Costello of the New York Post. Costello also pointed out that Wilson has caught passes from eight different quarterbacks on plays called by three different coaches; his best passer was a clearly aging Aaron Rodgers in 2024 playing some of the worst football of his career. (It’s still worth noting that Wilson’s production remained largely the same with Rodgers under center, partially due to expanded competition for targets from Davante Adams.)
Fields certainly isn’t a more proven quarterback than Rodgers, but he already has a rapport with Wilson that Rodgers was never able to establish. Wilson should also benefit from Engstrand’s schematic influence after he coached Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams to breakouts in his last role as the Lions passing game coordinator.
As a result, a long-term contract in the neighborhood of $30MM per year could end up looking like a steal if Wilson takes his game to the next level in 2025. He may recognize that and adjust his demands accordingly, but the Jets have some leverage after picking up his $16.8MM fifth-year option for 2026. Wilson cannot earn more than $20MM in the next two years unless he signs a long-term extension, which should also come with upwards of $50MM in guaranteed money. The former first-round pick may still choose to bet on himself with the hopes of breaking into the upper echelon of WR contracts next offseason.
