Most of the one-and-done coaching noise has emerged from the AFC, with Nathaniel Hackett and Lovie Smith potentially up against it to keep their jobs. Prior to last season (Urban Meyer, David Culley), no NFL campaign had seen two one-and-done head coaches since 2007. While Hackett and Smith could make it back-to-back years with multiple NFL one-and-dones, the NFC’s set of first-year HCs appears safe.
Both the Buccaneers and Saints have not lived up to expectations, particularly in Tampa Bay’s case. But neither Todd Bowles nor Dennis Allen are believed to be on unsteady ground regarding a return in 2023, Dan Graziano of ESPN.com notes.
The circumstances behind Bowles’ promotion were strange at the time, with Bruce Arians well into his offseason routine. Days after Tom Brady agreed to unretire, Arians stepped away. Many connected the dots here and pointed to Brady effectively forcing Arians out, but the Super Bowl-winning HC indicated otherwise. Arians said Brady’s return allowed him to hand the reins to Bowles rather than give his longtime assistant a less stable team. The Bucs have been anything but stable this year, however.
Tampa Bay is 6-7 but needed final-minute drives to win its past two home games. The Bucs have slipped from second in scoring offense to 28th in their initial post-Arians season, and Brady’s QBR figure (51.0) would be the lowest of his career (QBR made its debut in Brady’s seventh season, however). Rumors of friction between Brady and OC Byron Leftwich have surfaced, and the likelihood of the all-time great coming back for a fourth Bucs season appears low right now.
Bowles, 59, failed in his first head-coaching opportunity, going 24-40 with the Jets. He rebuilt his stock during his three-year stay as the Bucs’ DC, and this year’s Bucs defense remains in the top 10 in both points and yards allowed. But his team has failed to gain solid playoff footing despite playing in one of the worst divisions in NFL history. Bowles’ second year — one that could feature major quarterback uncertainty — figures to bring more scrutiny.
The Saints did not make the playoffs last season, going 9-8, but they have also taken a step back under their retread coach. Like Bowles, Allen bombed in his first HC go-round. He went just 8-28 with the Raiders, who fired him during a winless start in 2014. Allen, 50, latched on with the Saints and helped their defense turn around in the late 2010s, leading to four consecutive Saints playoff appearances. Injuries have again limited the Saints this season, and while New Orleans’ statistical decline is not as stark as Tampa Bay’s, the team’s 4-9 record is its worst mark through 13 games since 2005 — its final pre-Sean Payton season.
Staff changes could be in play for both teams, Graziano adds, noting that Brady — should he agree to come back — would stand to have input on how Bowles constructs his staff. Brady being a free agent complicates that process. As for the Saints, they kept longtime OC Pete Carmichael on — after he was initially linked to a lower-profile role in the wake of Payton’s exit — while this is Leftwich’s fourth season calling plays for the Bucs. It will be interesting to gauge the fallout from these two disappointing seasons, even if Allen and Bowles are ticketed to return.
