As Sam Darnold has become the latest quarterback to bounce back after an underwhelming stretch, the Vikings have both enjoyed the benefits while finding themselves in a bit of a predicament from a long-term sense. As Darnold may be less likely to hit free agency due to the season he has put together, J.J. McCarthy continues his rehab from a summer knee injury.
Centering their offseason around finding a long-term quarterback to succeed Kirk Cousins, the Vikings both acquired a second first-round pick (from the Texans) and traded up one spot — without using that second first-rounder — for McCarthy at No. 10 overall. McCarthy has undergone two knee surgeries to address the meniscus tear he suffered during the preseason. While the Michigan alum recovers, the former No. 3 overall pick taking Minnesota’s snaps has been a revelation in Kevin O’Connell‘s offense.
Early-December reports suggested Darnold was unlikely to remain with the Vikings beyond this season, but a subsequent offering indicated the team does hope to keep its current starter. The latter avenue would seemingly close off McCarthy’s future in the Twin Cities — or at least significantly alter it — months after it began. Days after that report, ESPN.com’s Adam Schefter noted during an ESPN Radio appearance teams will “definitely” inquire about McCarthy’s status.
Pegging McCarthy as a talent who could have been the top-rated QB prospect in the 2025 draft class, Schefter adds the Vikings could not only recoup a first-round pick in a trade but also collect additional assets. As our Ely Allen reminded Tuesday, evaluators are not viewing the ’25 group of QBs in the same way they assessed 2024’s. The supply-and-demand problem that grips the NFL annually at this position figures to be a bigger storyline in 2025 than it was in 2024.
This is still at the hypothetical stage, as it would effectively mean bailing on a high-end prospect one year into his career. But Darnold has changed the equation this season. His performance in O’Connell’s offense has driven the Vikes to 14-2 — their best record since a record-setting 1998 season — and it would be easier for the franchise to justify a second contract that perhaps it would another team who bets big on the ex-Jet, Panther and 49er in free agency. Throwing 35 touchdown passes, Darnold sits fifth in that category and fifth in passer rating. He checks in fourth in yards per attempt (8.2), though QBR slots him 13th. A robust free agent market would await, should the Vikings pass on franchise-tagging the 27-year-old arm.
Having already seen Darnold in O’Connell’s system, the Vikings could hope for more of the same due to the weaponry — perhaps beyond Aaron Jones, who is on a one-year deal — expected to remain in place in 2025. This would differ from another team sinking upper-middle-class — at the very least, given where Darnold’s trajectory now points — free agency money into Darnold, who would then be thrust into learning a new system and meshing with perhaps a less talented set of weapons.
A scenario in which Minnesota keeps Darnold — perhaps on the tag — but slots McCarthy behind him as a developmental option could also loom. That was the plan for 2024, as McCarthy was not expected to take over as the Vikings’ starter immediately. It was widely expected the former national championship-winning QB would take the reins at some point in 2024, but the way Darnold has played, it now would have seemed likely if McCarthy would have sat the full season had he stayed healthy.
The Vikings still figure to have a sense of McCarthy’s worth as a trade chip soon, though a commitment to Darnold would change the team’s roster blueprint. A tag would cost upwards of $40MM. McCarthy is on a rookie deal through at least the 2026 season; a Darnold tag or extension would change the math for a team that has Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson on top-market deals.
As the Vikings prepare for one of the biggest regular-season games in NFL history, their long-term QB plan will be of great interest around the NFL.
