November 25th, 2024 at 10:10pm CST by Adam La Rose
The Week 12 slate of games is in the books. For many teams, attention is increasingly turning toward the offseason with a playoff berth no longer in reach.
Plenty of time remains for the draft order to change over the coming months, and it will be interesting to see which teams wind up in position to add at the quarterback spot in particular. The crop of prospects for 2025 is not held in high regard after Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward, meaning the demand for potential franchise passers is set to outweigh demand at the top of the board. Of course, players like Sanders’ Colorado teammate Travis Hunter will be among the ones worth watching closely as well.
The Jets have moved on from head coach Robert Saleh and general manager Joe Douglas, inviting questions about a reset under center as well. Aaron Rodgerswants to play in 2025, but it remains to be seen how his relationship with the organization will take shape down the stretch and if a new regime will prefer to move on at the position. The Giants, meanwhile, confirmed they will be in the market for a new signal-caller with Daniel Jonesno longer in the fold.
Teams such as the Raiders have long been mentioned as a team to watch regarding a rookie QB pursuit. Jayden Danielswas a target for head coach Antonio Pierce last spring, and it would come as no surprise if Vegas were to make a push for a long-term starting option this time around. Other franchises not on track to qualify for the playoffs figure to give the Raiders plenty of competition in that department, though.
For non-playoff teams, the draft order will be determined by the inverted 2024 standings — plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule — with playoff squads being slotted by their postseason outcome and regular-season record. Here is an updated look at the current draft order:
With Blake Ferguson still injured and the Dolphins having used Tucker Addington‘s three promotions, the Dolphins are turning to a new long snapper. In comes Zach Triner, who is coming off a long stint in Tampa Bay. Triner ultimately spent five-plus seasons with the Buccaneers, getting into 81 games. He was cut by the team earlier this month after his replacement, Evan Deckers, returned from injury.
The Eagles are set to add K.J. Henry to their practice squad, per NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo. The 2023 fifth-round pick has already bounced around the league in his short career, spending time with the Commanders, Bengals, and Cowboys. He cleared waivers today after getting cut by the Cowboys this past weekend. The defensive end got into a pair of games for Dallas this season, and he’s collected three sacks in 17 career games.
The Colts will soon get some reinforcement on the defensive line. The team announced today that they’ve activated defensive end Tyquan Lewis off the injured reserve. Lewis is still questionable for tomorrow’s game against the Lions.
Lewis dealt with a long list of injuries to begin the season, with the defensive end suffering wrist, calf, and elbow issues. He landed on injured reserve in early October and has been on the shelf for the past month-plus. He returned to practice earlier this week, and the Colts didn’t take long to add him to the active roster.
The 2018 second-round pick has spent his entire career in Indy. He hasn’t necessarily lived up to his draft billing, as Lewis has only started 20 of his 69 appearances. He’s also spent much of his Colts tenure dealing with injuries, as the Ohio State product has missed 41 games in six-plus seasons with the team.
Still, he’s proven to be a useful rotational pass rusher. The defensive end has collected 15 career sacks, including a career-high four sacks (along with a career-high 13 QB hits) in 2023. That performance earned him a two-year extension from the Colts, and Lewis proceeded to start each of the team’s first four games of the 2024 campaign. 2021 second-rounder Dayo Odeyingbo and 2024 first-rounder Laiatu Latu have both garnered more opportunities with Lewis out of the lineup. With 2021 first-round pick Kwity Paye also sticking around, it’s uncertain if Lewis will continue to start once he’s ready to take the field.
The Colts made a handful of additional moves in anticipation of Week 12. The team announced that they’ve waived defensive end Genard Avery and elevated guard Atonio Mafi from the practice squad.
November 22nd, 2024 at 10:30pm CST by Sam Robinson
Late-season collapses certainly occur, with injuries obviously playing key roles in contenders’ blueprints. As it stands now, however, the AFC playoff picture is top-heavy. It is quite possible the stretch run will feature division leaders jockeying for seeding and two wild-card teams hovering over the race for the bottom bracket slot.
ESPN’s FPI gives the Chargers a 94.7% chance to make the playoffs, with the AFC North holding a strong likelihood of producing a wild-card squad as well. Both the Steelers and Ravens’ chances sit north of 95%. Although the volume of sub-.500 AFC teams could drain drama from this year’s fight to wear white in Round 1, the conference does have a handful of teams on the fringe who appear poised for a battle to claim the No. 7 seed.
Six AFC teams have eight or nine losses entering Week 12. While the 2008 Chargers started 5-8 and erased a three-game division deficit with three to play, the odds are stacked against the conference’s bottom tier (Patriots, Jets, Browns, Jaguars, Titans, Raiders). This leaves four teams in between.
The Broncos have not made a postseason appearance since winning Super Bowl 50. Considering the Russell Wilson release brought a two-offseason dead money number unlike anything the NFL has seen, Denver snapping that drought this year was not expected. Wilson counts for $53MM on Denver’s 2024 payroll, with the club taking on the larger portion of the dead money this year ($30MM-plus is on the books for next year, as a small cap credit from the QB’s Steelers pact awaits). But Sean Payton‘s team is 6-5 and holds a, per FPI, 50.3% chance of making the playoffs.
Although the Broncos kept costs low and also moved on from Justin Simmons and Jerry Jeudy, they resisted Courtland Suttontrade offers — including a third-rounder from the 49ers in August — and assembled an interesting roster around No. 12 overall pick Bo Nix. The Oregon alum’s progress defines Denver’s season, as the team appears close to identifying a surefire long-term quarterback. The franchise has not seen a QB start more than four seasons since John Elway, amplifying the interest in Nix’s sudden entrance into the Offensive Rookie of the Year race, but Vance Joseph‘s defense has proven better than expected.
Extending Patrick Surtain in September and payingJonathon Cooper just before trading Baron Browning, Denver sits third in scoring defense and third in yardage. The team leads the NFL with 39 sacks. This has given Nix important support during his maiden NFL voyage.
Defense has conversely burned the 4-7 Bengals, who are squandering MVP-caliber work from Joe Burrow. Back from a season-ending wrist injury, Burrow has thrown an NFL-most 27 touchdown passes (compared to four interceptions) and has done so despite franchise-tagged wideout Tee Higgins missing five games. The Bengals are not expected to pay Higgins, with a 2025 tag-and-trade perhaps all that is left on the contract front between the parties after no substantial talks have taken place since early 2023, but Ja’Marr Chase‘s extension price — a matter tabled to 2025 — will rise coming out of this season.
Chase’s 1,056 yards pace the NFL by more than 100. A defense that had been solid during the team’s 2021 and ’22 seasons has fallen off. Cincinnati augmented its defense by adding Sheldon Rankins and Geno Stone while reacquiring Vonn Bell, but Lou Anarumo‘s unit ranks 28th. FPI gives the Bengals a 14.8% chance to make the playoffs. While this is almost definitely the highest-ceiling team left on the AFC’s fringe, a team that entered the year with Super Bowl aspirations in the expected Burrow-Chase-Higgins trio’s final act together runs the risk of missing the postseason entirely.
Sitting at 4-6, the Dolphins carry a 13.6% qualification chance, per FPI. Mike McDaniel‘s team is here largely due to Tua Tagovailoa‘s concussion-driven IR stay; the Dolphins went 1-3 without their recently extended starter. Tagovailoa’s absence reduced an offense that had led the NFL in yardage last season to one of the league’s worst.
Even as Tagovailoa has returned, neither Tyreek Hill nor Jaylen Waddle has taken off. The Dolphins paid both this offseason, reworking Hill’s contract and extending Waddle in a deal that delivered the younger WR a better guarantee than Hill received via his 2022 extension. Through 10 games, Waddle is at 404 yards. Hill, who topped 1,700 in each of his two full Dolphins slates, has accumulated just 523.
As Miami’s elite wideout tandem will need to heat up soon for the team to have a chance at a third straight playoff berth — something the club has not accomplished since a five-year run from 1997-2001 — its defense is again without Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb. Phillips suffered a season-ending knee injury, while Chubb has not recovered from the ACL tear that ended his 2023 season on New Year’s Eve. No Dolphin has more than four sacks or eight QB hits, with 38-year-old Calais Campbell — whom the Dolphins nearly traded back to the Ravens at the deadline — proving valuable in a four-sack start in his Miami return.
The Colts are 5-6, and FPI gives them the second-best odds (34.2%) of this bunch. Quarterback play, of course, has defined Indianapolis’ season. The team’s about-face withAnthony Richardson reminds came after a historically early benching involving a top-five pick, as the 2023 fourth overall choice had started only 10 games when benched.
Still, Richardson’s accuracy problems threaten to derail the Colts, who had gone to Joe Flacco in an attempt to better position themselves for a playoff push. After Flacco lost the ensuing two starts, Richardson is back. While the raw prospect looked better in his return start, he still carries a 48.5% completion rate. Only six QBs who have attempted at least 200 passes have finished south of 50% in a season this century.
GM Chris Ballard mostly just paid to keep his core together this offseason, though waiver claim Samuel Womack has helped a depleted boundary cornerback group. The Colts rank both 19th in scoring and points allowed, and while other components on this roster obviously matter, Richardson’s development still overshadows their season’s second half. That represents perhaps the biggest X-factor among this middle-class AFC glut.
Assuming the Chargers stay afloat and the Steelers and Ravens do not collapse, who do you think will claim the conference’s final spot in the seven-team field? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on the race in the comments section.
Mark Glowinskihas returned to the Colts. The veteran offensive lineman signed to Indianapolis’ practice squad on Thursday, per a team announcement.
Glowinski has 124 starts to his name in the NFL; 59 of those (including 55 starts) came during his first stint with the Colts. The former fourth-rounder was with Indianapolis from 2018-21, handling right guard duties during that time. He landed a three-year, $20MM Giants deal in free agency based on his Colts success.
The 32-year-old played a pair of seasons in New York, operating as a full-time starter in 2022 but seeing his usage drop last campaign. Glowinski was let go in a cost-shedding move in March, leaving him on the open market. That remained the case deep into the season, but he will now return to a familiar environment for the second half of the year. The West Virginia product could be used as a gameday elevation up to three times before the Colts would need to sign him to the active roster.
Will Friesbegan the season as Indianapolis’ starting right guard, but a leg injury which required surgery landed him on injured reserve last month. Undrafted rookie Dalton Tuckerhas stepped into a first-team role since Fries went down, but his PFF evaluation has left plenty of room for improvement. Glowinski could reprise his role as a starter opposite left guard Quenton Nelson, or at a minimum provide the Colts with experienced depth along the interior.
In a corresponding move, cornerback Tre Flowerswas released from Indianapolis’ taxi squad. The 29-year-old has made four appearances for the Colts this season, and late October marked the most recent point at which he signed to the team’s practice squad. Flowers has yet to see any playing time since, and he will now seek out an opportunity elsewhere.
The Colts only held a walkthrough on Wednesday, but Lewis is expected to practice for the first time since September on Thursday.
Lewis landed on injured reserve on October 1 after dealing with wrist, calf, and elbow injuries over the first month of the season. He started the Colts’ first four games on the right side of the defensive line with 17 total tackles, including two for loss and 1.5 sacks.
Lewis’ injury offered more opportunities for 2021 second-rounder Dayo Odeyingbo and 2024 first-rounder Laitu Latu, both of whom have registered 3.0 sacks this season. The Colts’ depth at defensive end – which also includes 2021 first-round pick Kwity Paye – will allow Lewis to ramp up his participation upon his return to practice without too much pressure to appear in games right away.
Lewis signed a two-year extension worth $12MM to remain in Indianapolis during the offseason. He has spent his entire career with the Colts since being selected as the last pick of the second round in 2018.
Lewis will have 21 days to practice with the team before he must be activated or revert to injured reserve for the rest of the season.
Toney is set to make his debut for the regular season. The former first-round pick out of Florida has had a rocky first four years in the league, despite coming away with two Super Bowl rings in Kansas City. He was signed to the Browns’ practice squad just after the season opener and will be eligible to see game action with Cleveland in Week 11.
O’Donnell was added to the 49ers’ practice squad earlier this week given the chance of Mitch Wishnowsky missing time. The latter is now on injured reserve, ensuring at least a four-game absence. O’Donnell, 32, is a veteran of 145 games but Week 11 will mark his first regular season action since 2022.
November 13th, 2024 at 10:20pm CST by Sam Robinson
The Colts’ pivot to Joe Flacco did not produce the kind of results the team hoped for, and the veteran is heading back to the bench. Indianapolis’ Anthony Richardson developmental effort is shifting back to on-field duty.
Although the Colts had demoted Richardson due to on-field and preparation concerns, they are reversing course. Richardson will start in Week 11, per Shane Steichen. Doubling down here, Steichen classified this change as a long-term switch by indicating Richardson will carry the keys for the rest of the season.
Steichen said Sunday he was not planning to turn back to Richardson, whose accuracy concerns had restrained the Colts’ offense. Like Dave Canales did during his initial Bryce Young-for-Andy Dalton change, Steichen reversed course days later. It will be Richardson, who is tied to a 44% completion rate, against the Jets in Week 11.
Richardson had arrived in Indiana as a hopeful savior for a Colts team that had kept shifting to different veterans following Andrew Luck‘s retirement. Instead, the unseasoned Florida product showed concerning flaws after entering the NFL with one season — a highly inaccurate one, at that — of college starting experience. The Colts had been insistent they would keep Richardson in the lineup, but his decision to leave the field for a play against the Texans catalyzed a benching themed around Flacco giving the 2024 roster a better chance to win. The yo-yoing with Richardson will continue now that Flacco has not recaptured his form from his 2023 Comeback Player of the Year season.
Trade interest came in for Richardson, as it did Young, before last week’s deadline. As expected, the Colts passed. But Steichen’s previous comments painted a cloudy picture for the former No. 4 overall pick. Now, the Colts — at 4-6 — will move their season back toward a Richardson developmental project. Although fantasy GMs rostering Colts wide receivers may not be a fan of this development, Richardson certainly needs more playing time after entering the NFL as a one-year Gators starter and missing most of his rookie season due to a shoulder injury.
Richardson’s 44.4% completion number ranks as the fifth-worst mark through six games this century, and although the QB’s 7.2 yards per attempt is not at a basement level, the dual threat’s occasional deep-ball success was not enough to keep him in the lineup in Week 9. But Flacco threw three INTs against the Bills and did not lead the Colts into the Vikings’ red zone a week prior. The 17th-year veteran will shift back to a relief role.
If the Colts stick with their QB plan this time around, they should be able to make a better determination of Richardson’s 2025 status. The team had viewed Richardson’s preparation issues as a bigger concern than his on-field struggles, further calling into question the team’s plan to give him the QB1 gig back so soon. It is possible the team will need to shop for another starter next year, as the Panthers might. Considering where the Colts’ busy offseasons at QB since Luck abruptly left in August 2019, that would not be a welcome development. As such, Richardson making progress will be vital to the Colts’ blueprint.
Richardson, who did complete 59.5% of his passes in limited duty last season, may well need to show notable improvement from his first-half form to keep GM Chris Ballard in place due to the investment made in the raw passer. This switch back to Richardson may well put the Colts’ 2024 contention prospects secondary to long-term development — in an AFC already featuring a somewhat thin wild-card race — but Flacco’s struggles were not justifying Steichen’s previous QB call. Richardson’s form will now be the central Colts storyline for the season’s final seven games.
