Free Agent Stock Watch News & Rumors

Free Agent Stock Watch: Chris Johnson

April 16th, 2014 at 9:47am CST by Luke Adams

It’s now been more than five weeks since free agency opened, and most of the noteworthy free agents have long since come off the board. For players that entered the free agent pool late, like Chris Johnson, who was released earlier in April by the Titans, that means there are fewer potential suitors with roster holes and cap space.

That’s not the only factor working against the former Titan as he navigates the free agent waters. The increasing devaluation of the running back position will also limit Johnson’s potential earnings on his next contract. This offseason, no free agent back received more than the $3.5MM the Jaguars and Chargers committed to Toby Gerhart and Donald Brown, respectively. Other notable running backs on the market included Ben Tate ($3.1MM guaranteed), Knowshon Moreno ($3MM), Rashad Jennings ($2.5MM), and Maurice Jones-Drew ($1.2MM).

While those modest contracts are bad news for Johnson, it’s also fair to point out that none of the players listed above possessed Johnson’s combination of upside and previous track record. Jones-Drew certainly has a nice resumé, for instance, but he has struggled with health and performance over the last two seasons and only has three 1,000-yard seasons. Similarly, Tate brings a nice combination of age and upside to the table, but he has never proven he can be a full-time back, while Johnson has accumulated more than 1,000 rushing yards in each of his six NFL seasons.

Adrian Peterson, asked by Mark Carig of the Star Tribune about the declining cost of running backs, offered his thoughts on the matter: “Unfortunately for the guys who were in free agency this year didn’t have incredible numbers or incredible seasons to be able to get the type of [money] they wanted in free agency. I feel like that’s it. I feel like me and a couple of other guys are going to keep it alive as far as running backs being able to come out and keep the running back position at a top level.”

Peterson’s comments suggest that he believes the right running backs will still be able to land big deals in free agency, but that this year’s class just didn’t have any of those top-tier options. If he’s right, the question is whether or not Johnson qualifies as one of those top options. Given the factors in play on both sides of the equation, it’s not hard to see why the former 2,000-yard rusher would be seeking more guaranteed money than his fellow free agent running backs, and it’s not hard to see why there won’t be many clubs left willing to pony up that sort of money. The 28-year-old was expected to be snapped up quickly once he was cut by the Titans, but so far, the rumor mill hasn’t been overly busy, which suggests a disconnect between the way Johnson and NFL teams weigh his value.

Still, Johnson is drawing interest from at least a handful of clubs, and he visited one – the Jets – to start this week. As Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News writes, the veteran running back left the meeting without a contract and doesn’t have any other visits lined up yet.

“I’m just taking it one day at a time, taking my time, and whatever decision I make it’ll be the best decision,” Johnson said yesterday, adding that the Jets were an attractive option and that New York is a “fun city.”

According to Mehta, there are at least three teams in the mix for Johnson. The East Carolina product is recovering from a torn meniscus, and even though he got to 1,000 yards in 2013, those yards were hard to come by — he graded out as the league’s 42nd-best running back out of 55 qualified players last season, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). As such, a one-year deal to rebuild his value may be in Johnson’s best interests. That would allow him to prove his health and hit the open market again in a year, when he can talk to teams before April.

So what would a one-year contract for Johnson look like? Hakeem Nicks‘ one-year pact with the Colts might provide a blueprint. Nicks received a little more than $2MM in guaranteed money on a deal with a base value of about $4MM. However, the receiver can also earn another $1.5MM if he reaches various incentives related to total receptions, touchdowns, and a Pro Bowl spot. An incentive-laden deal for Johnson, which would reward him for a big 2014, could be beneficial for both the player and team.

As for Johnson’s future team, the Jets look to me like the favorites for now, but I wonder if there might be a better situation for the running back to improve his stock. New York’s offense will be incorporating several new pieces, including Michael Vick and Eric Decker, so there could be some growing pains while the club works out the kinks. I think Johnson would find a better fit splitting carries as a home-run threat on a bona-fide contender. However, based on the rumors we’ve heard so far, it doesn’t sound like many of those clubs are interested in the former first-round pick. Teams like the Bills, Falcons, Giants, and Cowboys have been mentioned as potential landing spots, but if I had to make a guess, I’d say the Jets reach an agreement with Johnson in the coming days.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Michael Vick

March 1st, 2014 at 10:52pm CST by Peter Sowards

The career arc of Michael Dwayne Vick is akin to the scariest roller coaster of which you used to dream as a young girl or boy — a series of sky-scraping peaks, each followed by a calamitous crash back down to earth at rocket speeds.

Vick enters the 2014 offseason as a free agent, the second time in his career he’s held that designation. PFR’s Luke Adams lists Vick, along with Chad Henne, Matt Cassel and Josh McCown, as the only first tier free agent quarterbacks. Rarely does a franchise quarterback make it to free agency.

His story is well told. The No. 1 overall pick in 2001 from Virginia Tech, Vick transcended the quarterback position. While not the most efficient or accomplished passer, his athleticism forced defenses to scheme for both his arm and his legs. He made the Pro Bowl in three of his six years in Atlanta, becoming the first QB to rush for 1,000 yards in 2006, though the Falcons missed the playoffs for the second straight season.

Then, Vick became a convicted felon and spent 548 days in prison.

Upon his release, a number of teams came out and, for one reason or another, publicly stated their disinterest in signing Vick. But the Eagles, lobbied by then-starting QB Donovan McNabb and looking to add a dynamic element to their offense, signed Vick to a modest two-year contract.

Vick played sparingly in 2009 as McNabb’s backup, then looked to back up Kevin Kolb in 2010 until an injury Week One sidelined McNabb’s heir apparent. The next 15 weeks were the best football Vick has ever played, finally becoming the efficient passer that had eluded him during his days in Atlanta, setting career-bests in completion percentage and passer rating.

But, as has been the case so many times with Vick, it came down to his (in)ability to stay on the field. Injuries forced him to the bench in each of the following three seasons, and he was kept there in 2013 by the stellar play of second-year passer Nick Foles.

In Vick’s favor is the improvement he showed in Philadelphia, making strides in every passing metric. Now we’ll see how much the rest of the league thinks of him.

ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter reported last month that the Buccaneers and Jets are likely to have some level of interest in Vick. The Jets offensive coordinator, Marty Mornhinweg, worked with Vick in Philadelphia as the Eagles OC from 2009-’12.

However, Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News reported that a reunion between Vick and Mornhinweg is not likely, despite the obvious connection. Tom Jones of the Tampa Bay Times says the Bucs need to take some chances and implores the team to sign Vick.

Vick, who turns 34 this summer, told Dan Handuz of NFL.com that he’ll “absolutely” be starting Week One next season. If his market isn’t what he thinks it will be, the Bengals would be a potential suitor — they offered Vick a two-year deal worth about $2.3MM in 2009, according to FOXSports.com.

At this stage in his career, Vick is likely still one of the 32 best quarterbacks in the world. But, teams will be wary of making a substantial financial investment in an aging veteran who has only played all 16 games once in his 11 season. Thanks to a weak free agent QB crop, though, he’ll likely get a shot to at least compete for the starting job, and we may get to watch the “Michael Vick Experience” once again.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Hakeem Nicks

February 15th, 2014 at 4:26pm CST by Rob DiRe

When looking at the landscape of free agent receivers, Eric Decker has separated himself in the eyes of general managers as the top pass catcher on the market. Our own Luke Adams wrote about Decker’s spot as the top free agent receiver earlier this month, noting that the only receivers on the market who can even come close to his production are Anquan Boldin and Julian Edelman. However, Decker was not always the clear cut big name receiver teams were looking. Last summer, Hakeem Nicks was thought to be the guy who would command the most free agent dollars this offseason.

Unlike Decker, Nicks is coming off his worst season as a pro in his contract year. He caught only 56 passes, totaling 896 yards, and very notably finished the season without a touchdown. He spent the season alternating between looking disinterested and expressing his discontent. The New York media started raking him over the coals due to his effort level about halfway through the Giants’ 0-6 start, declared him a malcontent and seemed to close the door on his tenure with the team by midseason. Trade rumors began to swirl, first with the Giants looking for a second-round pick in return. By the trade deadline, the media was wondering if the Giants could even expect a fourth-round pick in return. All in all, 2013 fell short of expectations for Nicks to say the least.

While Nicks cost himself a ton of money with a down 2013, teams interested in acquiring a number one caliber receiver for a cheap price could be enamored with the 26-year-old. Coming into last season the only knock on Nicks was his durability, as he had trouble staying on the field for Big Blue and often when he was on the field, he was playing at less than 100%. Shoulder, ankle, and knee injuries nagged him throughout the 2011 and 2012 seasons. When teammate Victor Cruz signed his extension last offseason, the sentiment was for Nicks to prove he can stay healthy and his deal would follow. Nicks was mostly healthy last year, but to no avail.

For teams interested in finding a talented receiver in free agency, long-term memory may have them leaning toward Nicks. It feels like forever ago, but in 2010, Nicks caught 79 balls, for 1,052 yards and a whopping 11 touchdowns in 12 starts. He followed that up with 76 catches for 1,192 yards and seven more touchdowns in 15 games in 2011. His most impressive stretch came during the Giants’ Super Bowl run, where he was the team’s most dominant offensive player, putting impressive numbers as he propelled the Giants to victory:

Wild Card Round vs. Falcons – six catches, 115 yards, two touchdowns
Divisional Round at Packers – seven catches, 165 yards, two touchdowns
NFC Championship at 49ers – five catches, 55 yards (left with shoulder injury)
Super Bowl vs. Patriots – ten catches, 109 yards

Had he reached free agency that offseason, his value would be much different. An injury-plagued 2012 season leading into this past year has dimmed the light shining on a player who was recently thought of as one of the top young playmakers in the NFL. Nicks is unlikely to re-sign with the Giants, even at a reduced rate, although Cruz has pushed for him to return. He may find himself on a one-year “prove it” deal with some team. Brad Wells of StampedeBlue.com believes the Colts could be able to lure him in on a one-year, $2.2MM deal.

Andrew Cohen of OverTheCap.com broke down the wide receiver market earlier this month, he saw Nicks as still deserving of a bigger contract. Cohen predicted Nicks to the Lions on a three-year, $30MM deal with about $13MM in guaranteed money. The thinking behind this was that the Lions are ready to win now, and positioning a star like Nick across from Calvin Johnson could take the offense to new heights. If Nicks was willing to take a smaller deal, Cam Newton and the Panthers are in desperate need of a bigger receiver, and the North Carolina product might consider his hometown if the market didn’t present a more lucrative option.

While his durability and effort level have provided serious red flags to his pending free agency, there should be some team out there with money to spend on potential. The draft will provide teams with a number of options at receiver, as it is supposed to be a deep class highlighted by Sammy Watkins of Clemson, Mike Evans of Texas A&M, and Marquise Lee of USC, all three of which are expected to be drafted in the first round.

Nicks is a 6’1″, 208-pound wideout, with impressive speed and playmaking ability. At 26 years old, and with the numbers he put up only a few years ago, he could command more money than most expect in a year where the other top free agent options are Decker and Boldin. While some may think Decker is a number two wideout about to be paid like a number one, Nicks is the buy-low option, where a team can pay him like a number two and hold out hope that he produces like the number one option he was in 2010 and 2011.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Eric Decker

February 4th, 2014 at 2:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Few receivers put up better numbers during the 2013 campaign than Eric Decker. In his fourth NFL season, Decker established new career-highs in receptions (87) and receiving yards (1,288), while hauling in 10 touchdown passes. All three totals ranked in the NFL’s top 12, and the 26-year-old’s advanced stats were even more impressive — he placed fourth in DYAR among receivers, behind only teammate Demaryius Thomas, Jordy Nelson, and Anquan Boldin.

The career year couldn’t have come at a better time for Decker, who is poised to hit unrestricted free agency for the first time this offseason after earning a base salary of just $1.32MM in 2013. He reportedly plans to test the market, which is no surprise given his competition on the market (Boldin and Julian Edelman are the only free agent WRs whose numbers came close to Decker’s 2013 production) and the deals signed by receivers in recent years.

Taking into account Decker’s career totals as well as his 2013 numbers, his resumé arguably looks better than Mike Wallace‘s did when the former Steeler reached free agency a year ago, and Wallace secured a five-year, $60MM contract in Miami, with $27MM in guaranteed money. While Wallace landed the largest free agent deal for a receiver on the open market last year, there were a couple other comparable contracts signed, including Dwayne Bowe‘s five-year pact with Kansas City ($11.2MM per year, $20MM guaranteed) and Greg Jennings‘ five-year deal with the Vikings ($9MM annually, $17.8MM guaranteed). Factoring in Decker’s track record, age, and durability, you could make the case that his stock as he approaches free agency is higher than that of any of those receivers.

Still, as impressive as Decker’s performance to date has been, potential suitors will take notice of a handful of red flags. The fact that Decker had Peyton Manning throwing him the ball helped buoy his overall stat line significantly, and he also benefited from the presence of other receiving threats like Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, and Wes Welker, meaning he frequently faced single coverage. Additionally, there may be question marks about his ability to produce against physical secondaries, particularly after his no-show against the Seahawks in Sunday’s Super Bowl, a game in which he totaled just six yards on one catch.

With or without Manning and the Broncos offense, Decker is a talented playmaker, but the recent history of free agent receivers suggest that interested teams should proceed with caution. After securing big paydays last winter, both Wallace and Jennings failed to put up 1,000-yard seasons, and combined for just nine TDs between them. Wallace was excellent in Pittsburgh playing across from Antonio Brown with Ben Roethlisberger throwing them the ball, while Jennings excelled in Green Bay catching passes from Aaron Rodgers alongside players like Nelson, Jermichael Finley, and James Jones. But being paired with lesser quarterbacks and assuming a number one role limited both Wallace’s and Jennings’ production last season. It’s not hard to imagine Decker’s receiving totals taking a similar hit if he finds himself in a comparable situation in 2014.

As such, it’s possible that teams will temper their enthusiasm for Decker, perhaps submitting bids more comparable to recent deals signed by players like Victor Cruz ($8.6MM per year, $15.63MM guaranteed), Mike Williams ($7.92MM per year, $14.6MM guaranteed), or Antonio Brown ($8.39MM per year, $8.5MM guaranteed). The Jets, Browns, Patriots, Ravens, and Rams are among the teams who could turn to the free agent market for receiving help, though none of those clubs necessarily possess the perfect combination of cap flexibility and offensive firepower that would attract Decker.

If Decker isn’t blown away by any offers on the open market, a return to Denver remains a possibility. The Broncos likely wouldn’t be able to make the most competitive offer in years and dollars, given their limited cap flexibility and the need to take care of several other players who are hitting free agency this year or next. However, the team has the ability to clear some cap space this offseason, and could probably fit Decker in if he were willing to accept a small hometown discount. For his part, Decker recently indicated he loves the city of Denver and hopes he and the team can work something out.

Still, history suggests that there will be at least one team willing to bet the farm on Decker’s ability to be a No. 1 receiver, or at least to share that role with another player. Concerns about whether Decker can sustain his previous level of production on another offense and with another quarterback may keep his price below Wallace’s range, but it’s not hard to imagine the Minnesota native landing a five-year contract worth in the neighborhood of $10MM annually, with between $15-20MM in guaranteed money.