Free Agent Stock Watch News & Rumors

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jonathan Vilma

August 1st, 2014 at 10:09pm CST by Dallas Robinson

As Lindsay H. Jones of USA Today noted last month, the 2014 offseason has not been kind to linebackers. Sean Lee, Kiko Alonso, Sean Weatherspoon, Daryl Washington, and Robert Mathis are among the LBs who have been lost to either injury or suspension. While allowing that linebacker is one of football’s most fungible positions (excluding 3-4 outside pass-rushers), teams still need to deploy competent defensive players in the middle of the field. As training camp gets underway, more LBs will inevitably suffer injuries, forcing teams to inquire on available free agents. Among defensive players, veteran inside ‘backer Jonathan Vilma is perhaps the most intriguing name who is still out of a job.

Vilma, 32, entered the league with the Jets in 2004 as the 12th overall pick out of Miami. After four largely successful seasons in New York, during which he was selected Defensive Rookie of the Year and was named to the Pro Bowl, he was traded to the Saints. During seven years with New Orleans, Vilma was again named a Pro Bowler (twice) and won a Super Bowl. He was, however, engaged in the Saints’ “bounty scandal”; after a suspension, appeals, and courtroom action, Vilma was somewhat exonerated, but only played in 11 games in 2012. He underwent a knee scope before the 2013 season, and ultimately made it on the field for just 12 defensive snaps. Vilma was not re-signed by New Orleans in March 2014.

Besides Vilma’s play, the obvious concern for teams would be his health. He was originally placed on the injured reserve/designated for return list following his knee injury last summer. When he returned midseason, he barely lasted a series’ worth of snaps before being placed back on I.R. The immediacy with which the Saints’ medical staff determined Vilma was unfit to play is certainly concerning, especially for a 32-year-old. However, Ian Rapoport of NFL.com reported on June 18 that Vilma’s knee received a “thumbs-up” medically, so perhaps his injury concerns are lessened for the time being.

Many teams could use help at linebacker, but it’s always important to consider scheme fit when discussing LBs. When Vilma was traded by the Jets, the prevailing opinion around the league was that he was a poor match for Eric Mangini’s 3-4 look. The Saints mixed in some 3-4 fronts while Gregg Williams was the defensive coordinator, and Vilma did struggle — during Williams’ final two seasons in New Orleans, Vilma ranked as the worst and third-worst LB in the league, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). At 230 pounds, Vilma is generally considered too small to flourish as a 3-4 “Mike” linebacker. However, when the Saints brought in Rob Ryan and his 3-4 defense in 2013, there was some optimism that Vilma could fit as the weakside linebacker. Additionally, 3-4 LBs aren’t expected to cover nearly that ground that 4-3 ‘backers do, so perhaps a 3-4 look could benefit an aging Vilma.

All of which is to note that Vilma doesn’t lack for options when searching for a potential match with a team. PFR’s pages show that Vilma has been linked to teams such as the Falcons and the Cowboys (each of whom lost a key linebacker), while Vilma himself reached out to the Dolphins, who were not interested in his services. I think the Cardinals would make some sense, as they are relying on an inexperienced Kevin Minter and an older Larry Foote in the wake of Washington’s suspension. The Broncos and Giants are also asking marginal players to contribute in the middle, and could be viable landing spots. The Vikings could be interested, as well, but Vilma might not want to play for a team that probably won’t contend in 2014.

At this point in his career, Vilma won’t be handed anything but a one-year deal. A contract for the minimum salary benefit, with a modest signing bonus, is a real possibility, especially considering his injury history. A team could potentially get desperate later in training camp, and offer Vilma a slightly larger deal, perhaps laden with performance-based incentives and/or gameday active roster bonuses. Ultimately, he’ll have to decide how badly he wants to return to the league, and if he lands with the right team and the right defensive front, he could end up being something of a bargain.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Santonio Holmes

July 14th, 2014 at 10:04pm CST by Rory Parks

Veteran wide receiver Santonio Holmes is perhaps the biggest name left on the free agent market at the moment. Holmes was released by the Jets in March, but it is unclear if any team has made contact with him since then. In May, we learned that Holmes has interest in returning to his first club, the Steelers, but it does not appear as though the interest is mutual at this point.

Holmes, who established himself as an electrifying playmaker and Super Bowl hero with Pittsburgh, saw very little success after signing a lucrative free agent deal with the Jets. During his four seasons in New York, Holmes totaled a meager 2,128 total yards. Of course, not all of that was entirely his fault. The Jets’ quarterback play has been shaky at best in recent years, and Holmes suffered through injury as well, appearing in just 15 games over the past two seasons.

Nonetheless, Holmes’ attitude has also negatively impacted his value as he searches for a new team and a fresh start. As one unnamed front office executive said last month, “We’d have to look more closely at what happened in New York with him in the locker room.” And Holmes’ trainer, Tom Shaw, recently said that Holmes would find a team this season–if he can find one that doesn’t think he would be a distraction.

There is no doubt that Holmes still offers some intriguing upside. Even though injuries and age–he turned 30 in March–have combined to take away some of his explosiveness, he could still be effectively utilized as a playmaking threat out of the slot, and getting a fresh start after his disastrous stint in the Meadowlands can only help. Improved maturity, which Shaw believes Holmes has demonstrated, would also go a long way.

He will probably have to wait until someone suffers a training camp injury to demonstrate that he has, in fact, matured, and that he still has some of the ability that once made him a favorite target of Ben Roethlisberger. Anticipating Holmes’ release in February, Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk suggested the Cardinals, Rams, and Steelers as potential destinations for Holmes, but that was based more upon speculation than anything else. Assuming an injury does indeed claim a wideout in training camp, Holmes will begin to look a lot more appealing to the afflicted club. At that point, he will look like a low-cost, high-upside risk that might just pay off in a big way in 2014.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jason Babin

July 9th, 2014 at 11:49am CST by Luke Adams

It’s been an unusual offseason for edge defender Jason Babin, who was the only player in the NFL to void his contract, re-sign with the same team, then get cut by that club a few months later. The sequence of moves leaves him on the free agent market, but there’s been no indication that Babin is considering retirement. As training camps approach, it’s worth considering which teams may have interest in the former first-round pick, who will likely try to catch on with a new club in time for the regular season.

Babin, who turned 34 in May, played in all 16 games last season for the Jaguars, racking up 31 tackles, 7.5 sacks, three forced fumbles, and two passes defended. Those are solid numbers, albeit a far cry from the ones he was posting just three years ago — in 2011 for the Eagles, Babin set a career high with 18 sacks, earning his second consecutive Pro Bowl berth. The veteran’s days of ranking among the NFL’s league leaders in sacks may be over, but he’s still very capable of getting to the quarterback, finishing with 59 total QB pressures for the Jags in ’13.

Of course, as Dan Pompei of Bleacher Report observed last month, teams have some concern that Babin has become increasingly one-dimensional, a strong pass rusher but not a player who can contribute on non-passing downs. That sort of player has some value, but many clubs may be seeking backups with more versatility, who could be of greater use in the event of an injury to a starter.

Still, Babin’s one-dimensional style of play isn’t exactly a new development. During his two Pro Bowl seasons in 2010 and 2011, the Western Michigan recorded an incredible total pass rush grade of +52.1, according to Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required). However, his overall grade was significantly lower due to below-average marks as a run stopper (-4.9) and an inability to avoid penalties (-17.3). His PFF grades maintained a similar pattern last year for the Jags, with a +8.6 pass rush mark to go along with -7.9 as a run defender and -8.0 for penalties.

The difference between Babin circa 2010-11 and last season’s version is that he’s no longer so exceptional at getting to the quarterback that it outweighs his deficiencies elsewhere. In his Pro Bowl seasons, Babin’s PFF grades had him ranked among the league’s top 10 defensive ends. In 2013, he placed just 35th of 52 qualified players at the position.

With his pass-rushing skills seemingly on the decline as he enters his mid-30s, Babin certainly won’t be in line for a lucrative deal this summer. However, his willingness to accept a fairly modest offer from the Jags in March suggests that the well-traveled defender could be had for a reasonable price. That three-year deal with Jacksonville had a base value of just $7.275MM and only included $500K in guaranteed money. Perhaps something in the range of $1.5-2MM per year would be enough for a club to bring Babin into the fold, and that wouldn’t be an exorbitant price tag for a part-time player with a knack for getting after the quarterback on passing downs.

Which team might be a fit for Babin? His apparent desire to return to the Jags suggests that it wouldn’t necessarily have to be a contender, though there are a few contending teams that could potentially use him. The Falcons, Bengals, Seahawks, and Giants are among the clubs that might be a fit, and several others could become suitors as well, depending on how their training camps play out.

Babin has experience in both 4-3 and 3-4 defenses, and as a veteran player wouldn’t necessarily need a full camp in order to be ready for the regular season, it may be in his best interests to wait until mid-to-late August to see if injuries or disappointing performances prompt any teams to become a little more desperate for a free agent pass rusher.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Chris Johnson

April 16th, 2014 at 9:47am CST by Luke Adams

It’s now been more than five weeks since free agency opened, and most of the noteworthy free agents have long since come off the board. For players that entered the free agent pool late, like Chris Johnson, who was released earlier in April by the Titans, that means there are fewer potential suitors with roster holes and cap space.

That’s not the only factor working against the former Titan as he navigates the free agent waters. The increasing devaluation of the running back position will also limit Johnson’s potential earnings on his next contract. This offseason, no free agent back received more than the $3.5MM the Jaguars and Chargers committed to Toby Gerhart and Donald Brown, respectively. Other notable running backs on the market included Ben Tate ($3.1MM guaranteed), Knowshon Moreno ($3MM), Rashad Jennings ($2.5MM), and Maurice Jones-Drew ($1.2MM).

While those modest contracts are bad news for Johnson, it’s also fair to point out that none of the players listed above possessed Johnson’s combination of upside and previous track record. Jones-Drew certainly has a nice resumé, for instance, but he has struggled with health and performance over the last two seasons and only has three 1,000-yard seasons. Similarly, Tate brings a nice combination of age and upside to the table, but he has never proven he can be a full-time back, while Johnson has accumulated more than 1,000 rushing yards in each of his six NFL seasons.

Adrian Peterson, asked by Mark Carig of the Star Tribune about the declining cost of running backs, offered his thoughts on the matter: “Unfortunately for the guys who were in free agency this year didn’t have incredible numbers or incredible seasons to be able to get the type of [money] they wanted in free agency. I feel like that’s it. I feel like me and a couple of other guys are going to keep it alive as far as running backs being able to come out and keep the running back position at a top level.”

Peterson’s comments suggest that he believes the right running backs will still be able to land big deals in free agency, but that this year’s class just didn’t have any of those top-tier options. If he’s right, the question is whether or not Johnson qualifies as one of those top options. Given the factors in play on both sides of the equation, it’s not hard to see why the former 2,000-yard rusher would be seeking more guaranteed money than his fellow free agent running backs, and it’s not hard to see why there won’t be many clubs left willing to pony up that sort of money. The 28-year-old was expected to be snapped up quickly once he was cut by the Titans, but so far, the rumor mill hasn’t been overly busy, which suggests a disconnect between the way Johnson and NFL teams weigh his value.

Still, Johnson is drawing interest from at least a handful of clubs, and he visited one – the Jets – to start this week. As Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News writes, the veteran running back left the meeting without a contract and doesn’t have any other visits lined up yet.

“I’m just taking it one day at a time, taking my time, and whatever decision I make it’ll be the best decision,” Johnson said yesterday, adding that the Jets were an attractive option and that New York is a “fun city.”

According to Mehta, there are at least three teams in the mix for Johnson. The East Carolina product is recovering from a torn meniscus, and even though he got to 1,000 yards in 2013, those yards were hard to come by — he graded out as the league’s 42nd-best running back out of 55 qualified players last season, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). As such, a one-year deal to rebuild his value may be in Johnson’s best interests. That would allow him to prove his health and hit the open market again in a year, when he can talk to teams before April.

So what would a one-year contract for Johnson look like? Hakeem Nicks‘ one-year pact with the Colts might provide a blueprint. Nicks received a little more than $2MM in guaranteed money on a deal with a base value of about $4MM. However, the receiver can also earn another $1.5MM if he reaches various incentives related to total receptions, touchdowns, and a Pro Bowl spot. An incentive-laden deal for Johnson, which would reward him for a big 2014, could be beneficial for both the player and team.

As for Johnson’s future team, the Jets look to me like the favorites for now, but I wonder if there might be a better situation for the running back to improve his stock. New York’s offense will be incorporating several new pieces, including Michael Vick and Eric Decker, so there could be some growing pains while the club works out the kinks. I think Johnson would find a better fit splitting carries as a home-run threat on a bona-fide contender. However, based on the rumors we’ve heard so far, it doesn’t sound like many of those clubs are interested in the former first-round pick. Teams like the Bills, Falcons, Giants, and Cowboys have been mentioned as potential landing spots, but if I had to make a guess, I’d say the Jets reach an agreement with Johnson in the coming days.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Michael Vick

March 1st, 2014 at 10:52pm CST by Peter Sowards

The career arc of Michael Dwayne Vick is akin to the scariest roller coaster of which you used to dream as a young girl or boy — a series of sky-scraping peaks, each followed by a calamitous crash back down to earth at rocket speeds.

Vick enters the 2014 offseason as a free agent, the second time in his career he’s held that designation. PFR’s Luke Adams lists Vick, along with Chad Henne, Matt Cassel and Josh McCown, as the only first tier free agent quarterbacks. Rarely does a franchise quarterback make it to free agency.

His story is well told. The No. 1 overall pick in 2001 from Virginia Tech, Vick transcended the quarterback position. While not the most efficient or accomplished passer, his athleticism forced defenses to scheme for both his arm and his legs. He made the Pro Bowl in three of his six years in Atlanta, becoming the first QB to rush for 1,000 yards in 2006, though the Falcons missed the playoffs for the second straight season.

Then, Vick became a convicted felon and spent 548 days in prison.

Upon his release, a number of teams came out and, for one reason or another, publicly stated their disinterest in signing Vick. But the Eagles, lobbied by then-starting QB Donovan McNabb and looking to add a dynamic element to their offense, signed Vick to a modest two-year contract.

Vick played sparingly in 2009 as McNabb’s backup, then looked to back up Kevin Kolb in 2010 until an injury Week One sidelined McNabb’s heir apparent. The next 15 weeks were the best football Vick has ever played, finally becoming the efficient passer that had eluded him during his days in Atlanta, setting career-bests in completion percentage and passer rating.

But, as has been the case so many times with Vick, it came down to his (in)ability to stay on the field. Injuries forced him to the bench in each of the following three seasons, and he was kept there in 2013 by the stellar play of second-year passer Nick Foles.

In Vick’s favor is the improvement he showed in Philadelphia, making strides in every passing metric. Now we’ll see how much the rest of the league thinks of him.

ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter reported last month that the Buccaneers and Jets are likely to have some level of interest in Vick. The Jets offensive coordinator, Marty Mornhinweg, worked with Vick in Philadelphia as the Eagles OC from 2009-’12.

However, Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News reported that a reunion between Vick and Mornhinweg is not likely, despite the obvious connection. Tom Jones of the Tampa Bay Times says the Bucs need to take some chances and implores the team to sign Vick.

Vick, who turns 34 this summer, told Dan Handuz of NFL.com that he’ll “absolutely” be starting Week One next season. If his market isn’t what he thinks it will be, the Bengals would be a potential suitor — they offered Vick a two-year deal worth about $2.3MM in 2009, according to FOXSports.com.

At this stage in his career, Vick is likely still one of the 32 best quarterbacks in the world. But, teams will be wary of making a substantial financial investment in an aging veteran who has only played all 16 games once in his 11 season. Thanks to a weak free agent QB crop, though, he’ll likely get a shot to at least compete for the starting job, and we may get to watch the “Michael Vick Experience” once again.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Hakeem Nicks

February 15th, 2014 at 4:26pm CST by Rob DiRe

When looking at the landscape of free agent receivers, Eric Decker has separated himself in the eyes of general managers as the top pass catcher on the market. Our own Luke Adams wrote about Decker’s spot as the top free agent receiver earlier this month, noting that the only receivers on the market who can even come close to his production are Anquan Boldin and Julian Edelman. However, Decker was not always the clear cut big name receiver teams were looking. Last summer, Hakeem Nicks was thought to be the guy who would command the most free agent dollars this offseason.

Unlike Decker, Nicks is coming off his worst season as a pro in his contract year. He caught only 56 passes, totaling 896 yards, and very notably finished the season without a touchdown. He spent the season alternating between looking disinterested and expressing his discontent. The New York media started raking him over the coals due to his effort level about halfway through the Giants’ 0-6 start, declared him a malcontent and seemed to close the door on his tenure with the team by midseason. Trade rumors began to swirl, first with the Giants looking for a second-round pick in return. By the trade deadline, the media was wondering if the Giants could even expect a fourth-round pick in return. All in all, 2013 fell short of expectations for Nicks to say the least.

While Nicks cost himself a ton of money with a down 2013, teams interested in acquiring a number one caliber receiver for a cheap price could be enamored with the 26-year-old. Coming into last season the only knock on Nicks was his durability, as he had trouble staying on the field for Big Blue and often when he was on the field, he was playing at less than 100%. Shoulder, ankle, and knee injuries nagged him throughout the 2011 and 2012 seasons. When teammate Victor Cruz signed his extension last offseason, the sentiment was for Nicks to prove he can stay healthy and his deal would follow. Nicks was mostly healthy last year, but to no avail.

For teams interested in finding a talented receiver in free agency, long-term memory may have them leaning toward Nicks. It feels like forever ago, but in 2010, Nicks caught 79 balls, for 1,052 yards and a whopping 11 touchdowns in 12 starts. He followed that up with 76 catches for 1,192 yards and seven more touchdowns in 15 games in 2011. His most impressive stretch came during the Giants’ Super Bowl run, where he was the team’s most dominant offensive player, putting impressive numbers as he propelled the Giants to victory:

Wild Card Round vs. Falcons – six catches, 115 yards, two touchdowns
Divisional Round at Packers – seven catches, 165 yards, two touchdowns
NFC Championship at 49ers – five catches, 55 yards (left with shoulder injury)
Super Bowl vs. Patriots – ten catches, 109 yards

Had he reached free agency that offseason, his value would be much different. An injury-plagued 2012 season leading into this past year has dimmed the light shining on a player who was recently thought of as one of the top young playmakers in the NFL. Nicks is unlikely to re-sign with the Giants, even at a reduced rate, although Cruz has pushed for him to return. He may find himself on a one-year “prove it” deal with some team. Brad Wells of StampedeBlue.com believes the Colts could be able to lure him in on a one-year, $2.2MM deal.

Andrew Cohen of OverTheCap.com broke down the wide receiver market earlier this month, he saw Nicks as still deserving of a bigger contract. Cohen predicted Nicks to the Lions on a three-year, $30MM deal with about $13MM in guaranteed money. The thinking behind this was that the Lions are ready to win now, and positioning a star like Nick across from Calvin Johnson could take the offense to new heights. If Nicks was willing to take a smaller deal, Cam Newton and the Panthers are in desperate need of a bigger receiver, and the North Carolina product might consider his hometown if the market didn’t present a more lucrative option.

While his durability and effort level have provided serious red flags to his pending free agency, there should be some team out there with money to spend on potential. The draft will provide teams with a number of options at receiver, as it is supposed to be a deep class highlighted by Sammy Watkins of Clemson, Mike Evans of Texas A&M, and Marquise Lee of USC, all three of which are expected to be drafted in the first round.

Nicks is a 6’1″, 208-pound wideout, with impressive speed and playmaking ability. At 26 years old, and with the numbers he put up only a few years ago, he could command more money than most expect in a year where the other top free agent options are Decker and Boldin. While some may think Decker is a number two wideout about to be paid like a number one, Nicks is the buy-low option, where a team can pay him like a number two and hold out hope that he produces like the number one option he was in 2010 and 2011.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Eric Decker

February 4th, 2014 at 2:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Few receivers put up better numbers during the 2013 campaign than Eric Decker. In his fourth NFL season, Decker established new career-highs in receptions (87) and receiving yards (1,288), while hauling in 10 touchdown passes. All three totals ranked in the NFL’s top 12, and the 26-year-old’s advanced stats were even more impressive — he placed fourth in DYAR among receivers, behind only teammate Demaryius Thomas, Jordy Nelson, and Anquan Boldin.

The career year couldn’t have come at a better time for Decker, who is poised to hit unrestricted free agency for the first time this offseason after earning a base salary of just $1.32MM in 2013. He reportedly plans to test the market, which is no surprise given his competition on the market (Boldin and Julian Edelman are the only free agent WRs whose numbers came close to Decker’s 2013 production) and the deals signed by receivers in recent years.

Taking into account Decker’s career totals as well as his 2013 numbers, his resumé arguably looks better than Mike Wallace‘s did when the former Steeler reached free agency a year ago, and Wallace secured a five-year, $60MM contract in Miami, with $27MM in guaranteed money. While Wallace landed the largest free agent deal for a receiver on the open market last year, there were a couple other comparable contracts signed, including Dwayne Bowe‘s five-year pact with Kansas City ($11.2MM per year, $20MM guaranteed) and Greg Jennings‘ five-year deal with the Vikings ($9MM annually, $17.8MM guaranteed). Factoring in Decker’s track record, age, and durability, you could make the case that his stock as he approaches free agency is higher than that of any of those receivers.

Still, as impressive as Decker’s performance to date has been, potential suitors will take notice of a handful of red flags. The fact that Decker had Peyton Manning throwing him the ball helped buoy his overall stat line significantly, and he also benefited from the presence of other receiving threats like Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, and Wes Welker, meaning he frequently faced single coverage. Additionally, there may be question marks about his ability to produce against physical secondaries, particularly after his no-show against the Seahawks in Sunday’s Super Bowl, a game in which he totaled just six yards on one catch.

With or without Manning and the Broncos offense, Decker is a talented playmaker, but the recent history of free agent receivers suggest that interested teams should proceed with caution. After securing big paydays last winter, both Wallace and Jennings failed to put up 1,000-yard seasons, and combined for just nine TDs between them. Wallace was excellent in Pittsburgh playing across from Antonio Brown with Ben Roethlisberger throwing them the ball, while Jennings excelled in Green Bay catching passes from Aaron Rodgers alongside players like Nelson, Jermichael Finley, and James Jones. But being paired with lesser quarterbacks and assuming a number one role limited both Wallace’s and Jennings’ production last season. It’s not hard to imagine Decker’s receiving totals taking a similar hit if he finds himself in a comparable situation in 2014.

As such, it’s possible that teams will temper their enthusiasm for Decker, perhaps submitting bids more comparable to recent deals signed by players like Victor Cruz ($8.6MM per year, $15.63MM guaranteed), Mike Williams ($7.92MM per year, $14.6MM guaranteed), or Antonio Brown ($8.39MM per year, $8.5MM guaranteed). The Jets, Browns, Patriots, Ravens, and Rams are among the teams who could turn to the free agent market for receiving help, though none of those clubs necessarily possess the perfect combination of cap flexibility and offensive firepower that would attract Decker.

If Decker isn’t blown away by any offers on the open market, a return to Denver remains a possibility. The Broncos likely wouldn’t be able to make the most competitive offer in years and dollars, given their limited cap flexibility and the need to take care of several other players who are hitting free agency this year or next. However, the team has the ability to clear some cap space this offseason, and could probably fit Decker in if he were willing to accept a small hometown discount. For his part, Decker recently indicated he loves the city of Denver and hopes he and the team can work something out.

Still, history suggests that there will be at least one team willing to bet the farm on Decker’s ability to be a No. 1 receiver, or at least to share that role with another player. Concerns about whether Decker can sustain his previous level of production on another offense and with another quarterback may keep his price below Wallace’s range, but it’s not hard to imagine the Minnesota native landing a five-year contract worth in the neighborhood of $10MM annually, with between $15-20MM in guaranteed money.