Free Agent Stock Watch News & Rumors

Free Agent Stock Watch: Bryan Bulaga

February 5th, 2015 at 9:28pm CST by Rory Parks

After missing all of 2013 due to an ACL tear, Bryan Bulaga turned in a fine performance in 2014, the final year of his rookie contract. The former first-round pick out of the University of Iowa, a veritable factory of quality offensive linemen, graded out as the 16^th best tackle, and 4^th best right tackle, in the league per Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required). He received especially high marks for his pass blocking performance in support of league MVP Aaron Rodgers, yielding just four sacks–two of which came in one game–and two other quarterback hits over the course of the season.

In addition to his strong 2014 campaign, which culminated in a heartbreaking defeat to Seattle in the NFC Championship Game, Bulaga brings a few other noteworthy accomplishments to the table. He was named to the league’s all-rookie team in 2010, and he was the youngest player to ever start in a Super Bowl when the Packers bested the Steelers in Super Bowl XLV. PFF also ranked him as the 7^th best tackle in football in 2011, just his second year in the league (subscription required).

However, he does come with an injury history. Even before the ACL tear that he suffered in August 2013, Bulaga suffered a hip injury nine games into the 2012 season that kept him sidelined for the rest of the year. As a result, he spent nearly two years on injured reserve, meaning that he needed a year like 2014 to not only prove that he was a top-flight tackle, but that he could stay healthy for a full season.

Despite missing Green Bay’s Week 2 matchup against the Jets this year, Bulaga largely managed to stay injury-free, which, combined with his strong play, puts him in excellent position for a big payday. Although there are a few other solid tackles eligible for free agency this year, most notably Doug Free, Michael Roos, and King Dunlap, Bulaga has one significant advantage over all of them: his age. At 26, Bulaga should still have a few prime years remaining, while those other free agent tackles will be at least 30 at some point in 2015.

Last year, Austin Howard scored the top deal among free agent right tackles, landing a five-year, $30MM contract with the Raiders, including $15MM in guaranteed money. Even Michael Oher, who was just released today, managed to snag a four-year, $20MM deal with Tennessee last season. Bulaga is more talented than both, and he will likely be paid accordingly. Although he has never played left tackle in his pro career–the Packers had planned to utilize him in that role before his ACL tear in 2013–he did play on the blind side while with Iowa, and he could at least represent an emergency solution at left tackle should the need arise. And, as the best overall tackle in free agency, he may end up getting paid like a second-tier left tackle, perhaps netting a deal in the five-year, $35MM range, which is what Jared Veldheer received from Arizona last year.

Green Bay would surely love to have Bulaga back. In late December, offensive line coach James Campen said of his right tackle, “He’s heavier than he’s ever been; he’s stronger…Remember, he was a young guy coming out of college, so he’s grown into his body and he has a clear understanding of the scheme, so he’s playing with total confidence. He knows exactly what’s going to happen, where it’s going to happen” (link via Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com). There is no reason to think that Bulaga himself would not like to continue his career where it began, though he was understandably in no state to discuss his future after Green Bay fell to the Seahawks several weeks ago.

But, if he does not re-sign with the Packers before free agency opens on March 10, he will likely be one of the first players to come off the board, and his presence should be a great comfort to whatever quarterback lines up behind him.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Stock Watch: Nick Fairley

February 1st, 2015 at 3:54pm CST by Dallas Robinson

With the offseason around the corner, the Lions’ most pressing concern from a roster standpoint is undeniably the impending free agency of defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, who topped the most recent edition of our 2015 Free Agent Power Rankings. Reports had indicated the Detroit would consider all the options at its disposal to retain Suh, and today Chris Mortensen of ESPN reported that the Lions are in a good position to re-sign the All-Pro. But because Suh is expected to receive a contract that rivals the $100MM pact between J.J. Watt and the Texans, the Lions probably won’t be able to keep its other talented defensive tackle, fourth-year player Nick Fairley.

Assuming a $140MM cap, the Lions will have approximately $15.4MM of 2015 cap space with which to work. Depending on how Suh’s potential extension is structured, much of that space could be already be spoken for. Mortensen’s report indicated that receiver Calvin Johnson could restructure his contract to create more financial flexibility for the club, allowing the Lions to re-sign Suh and add even more talent. Regardless, cap space in Detroit figures to be tight, leading Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press to tweet today that Fairley returning to the Motor City is a “long shot.”

Of course, the Lions could have had Fairley under team control for the 2015 season had they opted to exercise his fifth-year option last May. Because it selected Fairley in the first round of the 2011 draft, Detroit could have retained Fairley next season for a base salary in the neighborhood of $5.5MM. General manager Martin Mayhew & Co. opted to decline the option, and explained the decision as a motivational tactic, hoping to push Fairley into performing at high level in 2014. The maneuver created something of a Catch-22 — though Fairley did perform well last season, the Lions have now allowed him to hit free agency a year earlier than was needed.

Utilizing the fifth-year option decision as a strategy to motivate Fairley was an understandable move at the time, as the former 11th overall draft pick had failed to live up to expectations. The Auburn product started just 22 games during his first three seasons in the NFL, posting 12.5 sacks over that span. He had a nice season in 2012, grading as the fifth-best defensive tackle among 85 qualifiers per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). In ’13, however, Fairley slipped to to No. 31 per PFF, as his run defense grade slipped significantly.

In 2014, Fairley was playing at perhaps his highest level yet before suffering a sprained MCL and PCL in Week 8 — he didn’t play again the rest of the season. Despite his limited amounted of snaps (297), he still placed as the league’s 18th-best DT per PFF; his grade would have been better save for is -4.0 penalty mark. Fairley’s absence on the Detroit defense was tangible — though the unit ranked third in DVOA, it placed seventh in weighted DVOA, which more heavily factors more recent performance.

Fairley will be a part of a relatively strong free agent defensive tackle class, but assuming Suh remains in Detroit, Fairley would have a claim to the No. 1 spot at the position. He’s undoubtedly a top-five choice among DTs, with Terrance Knighton, Jared Odrick, and Dan Williams also intriguing FAs for clubs looking for interior defensive line help. Williams is a 3-4 nose tackle, so he probably won’t interest the same teams that look into Fairley; Knighton, as well, is more of a space-eater. Odrick is probably the most similar competitor among free agent tackles, and it’s notable that Fairley and Odrick produced the top two pass-rushing grades among FA defensive tackles, per PFF.

Given his uneven career performance and his recent injury history, Fairley certainly isn’t in line for a Watt/Suh/Gerald McCoy-type contract that averages more than $12MM per year. The Geno Atkins deal, with an AAV of roughly $10.7MM, is probably out of reach as well. Linval Joseph‘s five-year, $31.25MM pact with the Vikings, signed last offseason, is pretty clearly the floor for Fairley. Joseph was a bit younger than Fairley at the time he inked his contract, but Joseph had never played to the level that Fairely has demonstrated he’s capable of. As such, Fairley will probably be looking for a five-year deal with an AAV that pushes $7MM, with guarantees in the neighborhood of $13-14MM.

Fairley shouldn’t suffer from a lack of suitors, as clubs that perhaps had their eye on Suh can turn their attention to Fairley, provided Suh stays with the Lions. Teams such as the Raiders, Jaguars, Bengals, Broncos (should they lose Knighton), and Falcons (depending on scheme) all make sense for Fairley, who just turned 27 years old. He’s spent his career in a 4-3 defensive front, and given his pass-rushing acumen, it would likely serve him to stay in that scheme. But at 6’4″ and more than 300 pounds, he could conceivably play end in a 3-4 look, and interest clubs like the Chargers, Colts, and Titans, but again, his talents play up in a 4-3. Additionally, if former Lions head coach Jim Schwartz lands a role with a team, it will be interesting to see if he lobbies to bring in Fairley, his ex-pupil.

Fairley said back in August that he’d like to stay with the Lions, but given the massive contract that Suh will garner, it seems wholly unlikely Detroit can keep both its defensive tackles. The club was already spending the second-most on its defensive line in 2014, and that figure would surely rise with new contracts for both Suh and Fairley. Free agency now presents that most likely (and tantalizing) route for Fairely, who should do well on the open market.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jason Pierre-Paul

December 8th, 2014 at 10:31pm CST by Rory Parks

In 2011, just his second year in the league, Jason Pierre-Paul displayed in grand fashion just what made him so appealing to the Giants, who selected him with the 15^th overall pick of the 2010 draft. Using a rare and dynamic blend of size, speed, and athleticism, the man affectionately known as “JPP” racked up 16.5 sacks and was ranked by Pro Football Focus (subscription required) as the league’s sixth best 4-3 defensive end out of 67 eligible players. Pierre-Paul also led his position in total tackles, and he earned first-team All-Pro honors in recognition of his efforts as the most dangerous defensive player on the eventual Super Bowl champions.

It would have been difficult to top his outstanding 2011 campaign, but there seems to be a general belief, probably driven in large part by his lower sack totals, that Pierre-Paul has not even come close to replicating his performance from that season. Although he did amass only 6.5 sacks in 2012, PFF (subscription required) ranked him third among 62 qualified 4-3 defensive ends that year, and after an injury-shortened 2013, JPP is up to his old tricks this season, ranking as the fourth-best player at his position among 54 eligible players (subscription required). Although the Giants’ defense as a whole has been fairly pedestrian over the course of Pierre-Paul’s career (according to Football Outsiders’ metrics), Pierre-Paul seems to be holding up his end of the bargain.

Nonetheless, the two sides appear headed for a parting of the ways after 2014. As PFR’s Rob DiRe wrote last month, Pierre-Paul appeared ambivalent about returning to the club in 2015, stating, “Hey, if I’m here, I’m here, if I’m not, I’m not.” JPP did deliver the usual platitudes while discussing how much he has enjoyed his time as a Giant, but for a struggling team that has a bevy of potentially franchise-altering questions to answer this offseason, a mega-deal for Pierre-Paul might not be the wisest investment, no matter how much cap room New York might have.

So what will a new contract look like for a player in the prime of his career who plays a premium position and who may hit double-digit sack totals for the second time in four full seasons in the league? Robert Quinn, a 4-3 defensive end who was drafted one year later than Pierre-Paul and who has put together three consecutive seasons of 10.5 or more sacks (including a whopping 19 in 2013), signed a four-year extension with St. Louis in September, a deal worth about $67MM.

That contract seems to be a fair benchmark for JPP, although he stands to make more on the open market than he would if he were to sign an extension with New York. Another reasonable comparison might be Justin Houston, a premier pass rusher from the outside linebacker position who expects to land a contract valued somewhere between Quinn’s deal and the extension recently signed by J.J. Watt, a six-year pact worth as much as $100MM (with $51.8MM guaranteed). A five-year deal worth $80MM would seem like a fair price for both Houston and JPP, and that is about what I would expect both players to make on the free agent market.

Of course, the franchise tag remains an option, but as Paul Schwartz of the New York Post pointed out in October, the nearly $15MM projected cost of the tag “is impractical and probably impossible for the Giants to handle.” Schwartz also notes that Pierre-Paul, who was just 21 when he was drafted, is hitting free agency at a younger age than most players, and his willingness and ability to stop the run is not only an underrated part of his game, but also an attribute often difficult to find among so-called pass-rush specialists.

The knocks on JPP, of course, are his injury history—he struggled with back and shoulder injuries in 2012 and 2013—his relatively modest sack total after 2011, and the fact that much of his success is based on his athleticism rather than his technique, which is still raw in many ways. But, as Schwartz wrote, and as Pro Football Focus evaluations indicate, the sack totals are not indicative of Pierre-Paul’s abilities, and if he can complete 2014 in good health, the injury concerns may begin to fade. So while JPP’s next contract will probably not match Watt’s, he could get surprisingly close—especially in this era of the ever-increasing salary cap—and his departure would leave a very big hole in Big Blue. The Giants will have to decide if mending that hole is worth the price.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Mark Sanchez

December 7th, 2014 at 4:45pm CST by Dallas Robinson

After being selected fifth overall in the 2011 draft, and subsequently leading the Jets to the AFC Championship game in each of his first two NFL seasons, Mark Sanchez‘s career in New York came to an ignominious end earlier this year. He missed the entire 2013 season after suffering a shoulder injury during a preseason game, and was released on March 21, a week after free agency began. Sanchez quickly joined the Eagles, signing a one-year contract worth $2.25MM to act as Nick Foles‘ backup.

It’s possible that Sanchez, given his lack of success with the Jets, was unable to find a starting role on the free agent market. However, many theorized that the USC product wanted to latch on with Chip Kelly & Co. in Philadelphia, play in a more dynamic offense than the one he struggled in in New York, and face better free agency prospects in 2015. If that was Sanchez’s plan, it certainly worked out, as he excelled during the preseason, leading to trade speculation even before the regular season got underway. And while Sanchez surely wasn’t hoping for an injury to lead to his ascension to the starting QB job, Foles’ broken collarbone has allowed Sanchez to seize the signal-calling reins in Philadelphia.

Since becoming the starter in Week 8, Sanchez has performed well, completing more than 63% of his passes for 1,404 yards, eight touchdowns, and six interceptions, leading the Eagles to a 4-1 record and maintaining the top spot in the NFC East. Advanced metrics aren’t as complimentary of Sanchez — Pro Football Focus grades him as just the 26th-best QB in the league since Week 8 (subscription required), while Football Outsiders ranks him 29th in DVOA (a rate stat that doesn’t penalize for lack of playing time).

Nevertheless, Sanchez has kept the Eagles afloat in Foles’ absence, as Philadelphia’s offense has continued to function with its backup under center. Because of that, it’s fair to look at the possibility of Sanchez remaining with the Eagles for 2015 and beyond. A November report suggested that Foles’ future with the club was in jeopardy, as general manager Howie Roseman had grown frustrated with the third-year QB and had already begun researching alternatives. Kelly later denied the report’s implications, but it’s apparent that Foles is not the ideal quarterback for Kelly’s system. Sanchez probably isn’t the prototype for a Kelly offense either, but most insiders believe that he has more impressive physical tools than Foles.

The Eagles also have second-year quarterback Matt Barkley on the their depth chart, and while he’s not a candidate to see significant playing time, it speaks to the muddled QB situation in Philly. Ideally, Kelly would surely prefer to add a quarterback like Oregon’s Marcus Mariota — a mobile, dual-threat option perfectly suited to his offensive scheme. With that an unlikely possibility, the Eagles could look to retain both Sanchez and Foles, and let the two engage in a training camp battle. However, Sanchez would probably want to be promised a starting job, so if he does return to Philadelphia, Foles could become trade bait.

The more likely scenario, though, sees Sanchez depart Philadelphia in search of a long-term deal that ensures him a starting gig. He shouldn’t have trouble finding a job, especially because quarterback talent is so diffucult to acquire. With even mid-tier options like Andy Dalton and Alex Smith receiving big money extensions, the QB market is usually barren, so a mediocre talent such as Sanchez can be rewarded on the open market. Additionally, Sanchez is clearly the No. 1 option among free agent quarterbacks. Brian Hoyer is the only other FA QB whom teams might feel comfortable employing as a starter, and it’s safe to say that Sanchez will be in higher demand than the Browns quarterback.

So where does Sanchez fit? PFR’s Luke Adams recently examined the state of the quarterback position around the league and identified eight teams who have no clear-cut 2015 starter. The Jets probably don’t want to reunite with its former draft pick, and the Bills, Browns, Buccaneers, and Titans will probably turn to internal options or a high draft-pick next season. By my estimation, that leaves three teams that could show heavy interest in Sanchez during the offseason — the Texans, Washington, and the Rams.

We’ll place the Texans and Washington in one bucket, as I think their level of intrigue regarding Sanchez could be similar. The Texans have all the pieces of a contending team in place except for a capable quarterback; Arian Foster is one of the best running backs in the league, and J.J. Watt and the rest of Houston’s defense is excellent. The QB combination of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Ryan Mallett has been lackluster this season, however, limiting the Texans’ upside. Fitzpatrick is under contract for 2015 but isn’t guaranteed any money, while Mallett is injured and will be a free agent at season’s end, though the team has expressed interest in retaining him. The club also has rookie Tom Savage, but Sanchez could add the boost the team needs to get over the hump.

Unlike Houston, Washington doesn’t have a solid core to build around. The team has a few sound offensive pieces, but its offensive line and its defense could use some work. Regardless, the club is expected to move on from Robert Griffin III during the offseason, leaving a void at quarterback that neith Colt McCoy nor Kirk Cousins will likely be able to fill. Head coach Jay Gruden runs a offensive scheme that has some similarities to that of Kelly, with an air attack that focuses on accuracy and quick passes. It’s a system that Griffin has failed to grasp, but one that Sanchez could potentially thrive in.

The best destination for Sanchez, though, might be St. Louis, where Sam Bradford is expected to be released after suffering yet another major injury. Like the Texans, the Rams have pieces in place to contend — Tre Mason and Stedman Bailey highlight a young offensive core, while the Rams’ defense ranked 10th in defensive DVOA even before today’s shutout of Washington. St. Louis showed interest in Sanchez before the season, and Rams offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer is familiar with Sanchez from the duo’s time in New York. As PFR’s Rob DiRe passed along last week, competent quarterback play could vault St. Louis into contention in the NFC West.

As Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap wrote in November, a player of Sanchez’s caliber could generally expect ~$2MM to act as a serviceable backup. Now that he’s proven his ability to return to a starting role, however, Sanchez could be looking for a larger contract. A handful of comparable QBs signed free agent contracts prior to this season — Kyle Orton joined the Bills on a two-year, $11MM pact ($5.5MM guaranteed), and Matt Cassel re-signed with the Vikings on a two-year deal worth $10.5MM ($5.25MM in guarantees). Sanchez has youth, upside, and better production on his side, so he can probably garner a more favorable deal than either Orton or Casseel did. A three-year pact in the $18-20MM range, with perhaps $8MM guaranteed, sounds about right, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s the Rams that offer that figure to Sanchez.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Matt Prater

October 5th, 2014 at 4:33pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Kicker is among the most volatile positions in the NFL — in fact, 41% of kickers (13-of-32) weren’t with their current team as recently as 2012. With a position that fluid, teams look fondly upon stability, meaning available solid veterans won’t be out of work for long. In the case of Matt Prater, it might be mere days until he finds a new job.

Prater, 30, entered the league in 2005 as an undrafted free agent out of Central Florida. Like most kickers, he was extremely nomadic during the early portion of his career, spending time with the Lions, Dolphins, and Falcons before becoming the Broncos’ full-time kicker in 2008. During his time in Denver, Prater converted 82.9% of field goals. 2013 was perhaps his best season to date, as he made 25-of-26 field goals, and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 placekicker (subscription required).

Though other external factors could have been at play, it seems that two components played a part in the Broncos releasing Prater on Friday — off-the-field issues and cap space. Prater was suspended for the first four games of 2014 for violating the league’s substance abuse policy; he was also arrested for DUI in both 2008 and 2011. Given the NFL’s hyper-sensitivity to distractions, it’s no wonder Denver decided to part ways with a relatively replaceable player who was causing trouble.

Replacing Prater as the Broncos kicker is Brandon McManus, a second-year player earning just $410K this season. Prater, meanwhile, was set to count more than $7MM against Denver’s cap during 2014-15. As Jason Fitzgerald observed on yesterday’s Over the Cap podcast, the Broncos have several extensions looming, as both Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas are in line for new contracts. Additionally, said Fitzgerald, Denver’s high-octane offense means the team isn’t often settling for field goals, lessening the need for a high-priced kicker. It simply didn’t make financial sense for the Broncos to keep Prater around, so they cut him before his 2014 salary became guaranteed.

The list of teams in need of a kicker could certainly change as the season progresses, but right now, it seems as though the Lions could be a perfect fit for Prater. After waiving Nate Freese following his early-season struggles, Detroit brought in ex-Eagle Alex Henery. Henery, however, missed all three of his field goal attempts in today’s game against the Bills, and is now 1-for-5 on the season. Both Kyle Meinke of MLive.com and Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com suggested that the Lions could be interested in Prater, and that was before Henery’s misfires this afternoon. Fitzgerald notes (via Twitter) that Detroit, which only has about $1MM in cap space, might have to restructure some contracts or defer money until 2015 in order to sign Prater.

La Canfora also mentioned the Saints as a possibility for Prater, while I’d add that the Titans could soon be interested in moving on from Ryan Succop, who missed both of his field goal attempts in Week 3 and is 6-for-8 on the season. Ultimately, Prater will likely find a new team shortly, and it seems as though Detroit could be his destination.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Richie Incognito

August 10th, 2014 at 4:31pm CST by Dallas Robinson

As I noted in my evaluation of Jonathan Vilma‘s free agency stock, there are several positions in today’s NFL that are quite fungible — among them are running back, inside linebacker, and offensive guard. Of these devalued positions, guard might be the spot where veteran experience is still highly esteemed. Unlike the backfield or a front seven, a successful offensive line requires not only talent, but a sort of unspoken connectivity among the linemen. The best front fives in football are often those who have experienced stability, allowing the five players to mesh.

If a team suffers a guard injury in the coming weeks, it may not want to turn to a rookie or another unseasoned young player. Rather, a team in need of line help might seek a veteran player with several years of experience under his belt. At this point in the offseason, however, such players don’t come without warts, so if and when a team looks for reinforcements at guard, the best remaining option might be the embattled Richie Incognito.

The reason why Incognito is still unemployed is obvious — his involvement in the Jonathan Martin scandal, during which Incognito bullied and harassed Martin until he left the team, is unsettling, to say the least. From an outsider’s perspective, it’s hard to judge whether Incognito’s behavior was incongruent with that of a typical NFL locker room. But the fact that he remains unsigned is an indication that either teams were disturbed by Incognito’s conduct, or aren’t willing to handle the media swarm that would occur following his signing.

But despite Incognito’s troubles, the reality of the NFL is that talent wins out. Players like Michael Vick and Ben Roethlisberger were accused of and/or charged with unsavory acts, but both were allowed back into the NFL. Vick was signed to a massive extension with the Eagles, and the Steelers will look to tack on years to Roethlisberger’s deal after 2014. If a player is able to compete at a high level, the league tends to look the other way when it comes to his past.

The 6’3″, 320-pound Incognito has certainly displayed effectiveness since entering the NFL as a third-round pick of the Rams in 2006. After several anger-related incidents, and racking up 38 penalites (seven unnecessary roughness calls), he was waived by St. Louis in 2009. After being claimed by the Bills, he spent one season in Buffalo before playing with the Dolphins from 2010-13. He was suspended indefinitely in November of last year, and his contract expired after the season.

In total, Incognito has started 102 games over the course of his career, spending time at both guard spots (though he has played only left guard in recent seasons). Pro Football Focus’ data (subscription required) only goes back to 2007, but the site’s advanced metrics have positively graded each of Incognito’s seasons. For most of his career, PFF’s statistics indicated that Incognito was a better run-blocker than pass-protector, but since 2012, those data points have flipped. Regardless, Incognito is unquestionably a top-30 guard, and topped out as the 16th-best guard in the league in 2010.

So will Incognito find a team for 2014? It’s difficult to project — on May 28, one general manager told Mike Freeman of Bleacher Report that despite Incognito’s attempts to get back in the league, his return was unlikely, as “no one trusts him.” A month later, sources were telling Freeman’s colleague, Dan Pompei, that while Incognito is easily the best available interior lineman, no team wants to deal with the fallout of signing him. However, on August 8, Incognito told Josh Peter of USA Today that his agent had received “a few nibbles” from teams during the offseason.

Any team that brings in Incognito will factor in the possibility that he will be suspended and miss a portion of 2014. However, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell recently sounded quite pleased with Incognito’s headway since the bullying incident took place. “It’s a broad issue,” said Goodell, via Connor Orr of the Newark Star-Ledger. “I would say that the one person who has been very responsive in going through the program has been Richie Incognito. We’re working with his people and monitoring his progress on that front.”

The Giants could have interest in Incognito — longtime guard Chris Snee announced his retirement last month, and New York had no problem bringing in Incognito’s former teammate John Jerry, who was also involved in the Martin scandal. The Buccaneers, who parted ways with Carl Nicks on July 25, could also use help at guard. Additionally, teams will inevitably suffer injuries at the position as the preseason proceeds, and will seek to add veteran depth.

In the end, Incognito’s fate will be determined by a simple cost-benefit analysis: Factoring in the inexorable media pressure that would ensue, is Incognito’s above-average play worth the headache of adding him? My guess is yes — his talent is undeniable, and a team will eventually get desperate enough to sign him. Guaranteed money or a guaranteed roster spot will be out of the question, but some team will be willing to take a gamble on Incognito in order to reap the reward.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jonathan Vilma

August 1st, 2014 at 10:09pm CST by Dallas Robinson

As Lindsay H. Jones of USA Today noted last month, the 2014 offseason has not been kind to linebackers. Sean Lee, Kiko Alonso, Sean Weatherspoon, Daryl Washington, and Robert Mathis are among the LBs who have been lost to either injury or suspension. While allowing that linebacker is one of football’s most fungible positions (excluding 3-4 outside pass-rushers), teams still need to deploy competent defensive players in the middle of the field. As training camp gets underway, more LBs will inevitably suffer injuries, forcing teams to inquire on available free agents. Among defensive players, veteran inside ‘backer Jonathan Vilma is perhaps the most intriguing name who is still out of a job.

Vilma, 32, entered the league with the Jets in 2004 as the 12th overall pick out of Miami. After four largely successful seasons in New York, during which he was selected Defensive Rookie of the Year and was named to the Pro Bowl, he was traded to the Saints. During seven years with New Orleans, Vilma was again named a Pro Bowler (twice) and won a Super Bowl. He was, however, engaged in the Saints’ “bounty scandal”; after a suspension, appeals, and courtroom action, Vilma was somewhat exonerated, but only played in 11 games in 2012. He underwent a knee scope before the 2013 season, and ultimately made it on the field for just 12 defensive snaps. Vilma was not re-signed by New Orleans in March 2014.

Besides Vilma’s play, the obvious concern for teams would be his health. He was originally placed on the injured reserve/designated for return list following his knee injury last summer. When he returned midseason, he barely lasted a series’ worth of snaps before being placed back on I.R. The immediacy with which the Saints’ medical staff determined Vilma was unfit to play is certainly concerning, especially for a 32-year-old. However, Ian Rapoport of NFL.com reported on June 18 that Vilma’s knee received a “thumbs-up” medically, so perhaps his injury concerns are lessened for the time being.

Many teams could use help at linebacker, but it’s always important to consider scheme fit when discussing LBs. When Vilma was traded by the Jets, the prevailing opinion around the league was that he was a poor match for Eric Mangini’s 3-4 look. The Saints mixed in some 3-4 fronts while Gregg Williams was the defensive coordinator, and Vilma did struggle — during Williams’ final two seasons in New Orleans, Vilma ranked as the worst and third-worst LB in the league, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). At 230 pounds, Vilma is generally considered too small to flourish as a 3-4 “Mike” linebacker. However, when the Saints brought in Rob Ryan and his 3-4 defense in 2013, there was some optimism that Vilma could fit as the weakside linebacker. Additionally, 3-4 LBs aren’t expected to cover nearly that ground that 4-3 ‘backers do, so perhaps a 3-4 look could benefit an aging Vilma.

All of which is to note that Vilma doesn’t lack for options when searching for a potential match with a team. PFR’s pages show that Vilma has been linked to teams such as the Falcons and the Cowboys (each of whom lost a key linebacker), while Vilma himself reached out to the Dolphins, who were not interested in his services. I think the Cardinals would make some sense, as they are relying on an inexperienced Kevin Minter and an older Larry Foote in the wake of Washington’s suspension. The Broncos and Giants are also asking marginal players to contribute in the middle, and could be viable landing spots. The Vikings could be interested, as well, but Vilma might not want to play for a team that probably won’t contend in 2014.

At this point in his career, Vilma won’t be handed anything but a one-year deal. A contract for the minimum salary benefit, with a modest signing bonus, is a real possibility, especially considering his injury history. A team could potentially get desperate later in training camp, and offer Vilma a slightly larger deal, perhaps laden with performance-based incentives and/or gameday active roster bonuses. Ultimately, he’ll have to decide how badly he wants to return to the league, and if he lands with the right team and the right defensive front, he could end up being something of a bargain.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Santonio Holmes

July 14th, 2014 at 10:04pm CST by Rory Parks

Veteran wide receiver Santonio Holmes is perhaps the biggest name left on the free agent market at the moment. Holmes was released by the Jets in March, but it is unclear if any team has made contact with him since then. In May, we learned that Holmes has interest in returning to his first club, the Steelers, but it does not appear as though the interest is mutual at this point.

Holmes, who established himself as an electrifying playmaker and Super Bowl hero with Pittsburgh, saw very little success after signing a lucrative free agent deal with the Jets. During his four seasons in New York, Holmes totaled a meager 2,128 total yards. Of course, not all of that was entirely his fault. The Jets’ quarterback play has been shaky at best in recent years, and Holmes suffered through injury as well, appearing in just 15 games over the past two seasons.

Nonetheless, Holmes’ attitude has also negatively impacted his value as he searches for a new team and a fresh start. As one unnamed front office executive said last month, “We’d have to look more closely at what happened in New York with him in the locker room.” And Holmes’ trainer, Tom Shaw, recently said that Holmes would find a team this season–if he can find one that doesn’t think he would be a distraction.

There is no doubt that Holmes still offers some intriguing upside. Even though injuries and age–he turned 30 in March–have combined to take away some of his explosiveness, he could still be effectively utilized as a playmaking threat out of the slot, and getting a fresh start after his disastrous stint in the Meadowlands can only help. Improved maturity, which Shaw believes Holmes has demonstrated, would also go a long way.

He will probably have to wait until someone suffers a training camp injury to demonstrate that he has, in fact, matured, and that he still has some of the ability that once made him a favorite target of Ben Roethlisberger. Anticipating Holmes’ release in February, Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk suggested the Cardinals, Rams, and Steelers as potential destinations for Holmes, but that was based more upon speculation than anything else. Assuming an injury does indeed claim a wideout in training camp, Holmes will begin to look a lot more appealing to the afflicted club. At that point, he will look like a low-cost, high-upside risk that might just pay off in a big way in 2014.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jason Babin

July 9th, 2014 at 11:49am CST by Luke Adams

It’s been an unusual offseason for edge defender Jason Babin, who was the only player in the NFL to void his contract, re-sign with the same team, then get cut by that club a few months later. The sequence of moves leaves him on the free agent market, but there’s been no indication that Babin is considering retirement. As training camps approach, it’s worth considering which teams may have interest in the former first-round pick, who will likely try to catch on with a new club in time for the regular season.

Babin, who turned 34 in May, played in all 16 games last season for the Jaguars, racking up 31 tackles, 7.5 sacks, three forced fumbles, and two passes defended. Those are solid numbers, albeit a far cry from the ones he was posting just three years ago — in 2011 for the Eagles, Babin set a career high with 18 sacks, earning his second consecutive Pro Bowl berth. The veteran’s days of ranking among the NFL’s league leaders in sacks may be over, but he’s still very capable of getting to the quarterback, finishing with 59 total QB pressures for the Jags in ’13.

Of course, as Dan Pompei of Bleacher Report observed last month, teams have some concern that Babin has become increasingly one-dimensional, a strong pass rusher but not a player who can contribute on non-passing downs. That sort of player has some value, but many clubs may be seeking backups with more versatility, who could be of greater use in the event of an injury to a starter.

Still, Babin’s one-dimensional style of play isn’t exactly a new development. During his two Pro Bowl seasons in 2010 and 2011, the Western Michigan recorded an incredible total pass rush grade of +52.1, according to Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required). However, his overall grade was significantly lower due to below-average marks as a run stopper (-4.9) and an inability to avoid penalties (-17.3). His PFF grades maintained a similar pattern last year for the Jags, with a +8.6 pass rush mark to go along with -7.9 as a run defender and -8.0 for penalties.

The difference between Babin circa 2010-11 and last season’s version is that he’s no longer so exceptional at getting to the quarterback that it outweighs his deficiencies elsewhere. In his Pro Bowl seasons, Babin’s PFF grades had him ranked among the league’s top 10 defensive ends. In 2013, he placed just 35th of 52 qualified players at the position.

With his pass-rushing skills seemingly on the decline as he enters his mid-30s, Babin certainly won’t be in line for a lucrative deal this summer. However, his willingness to accept a fairly modest offer from the Jags in March suggests that the well-traveled defender could be had for a reasonable price. That three-year deal with Jacksonville had a base value of just $7.275MM and only included $500K in guaranteed money. Perhaps something in the range of $1.5-2MM per year would be enough for a club to bring Babin into the fold, and that wouldn’t be an exorbitant price tag for a part-time player with a knack for getting after the quarterback on passing downs.

Which team might be a fit for Babin? His apparent desire to return to the Jags suggests that it wouldn’t necessarily have to be a contender, though there are a few contending teams that could potentially use him. The Falcons, Bengals, Seahawks, and Giants are among the clubs that might be a fit, and several others could become suitors as well, depending on how their training camps play out.

Babin has experience in both 4-3 and 3-4 defenses, and as a veteran player wouldn’t necessarily need a full camp in order to be ready for the regular season, it may be in his best interests to wait until mid-to-late August to see if injuries or disappointing performances prompt any teams to become a little more desperate for a free agent pass rusher.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Chris Johnson

April 16th, 2014 at 9:47am CST by Luke Adams

It’s now been more than five weeks since free agency opened, and most of the noteworthy free agents have long since come off the board. For players that entered the free agent pool late, like Chris Johnson, who was released earlier in April by the Titans, that means there are fewer potential suitors with roster holes and cap space.

That’s not the only factor working against the former Titan as he navigates the free agent waters. The increasing devaluation of the running back position will also limit Johnson’s potential earnings on his next contract. This offseason, no free agent back received more than the $3.5MM the Jaguars and Chargers committed to Toby Gerhart and Donald Brown, respectively. Other notable running backs on the market included Ben Tate ($3.1MM guaranteed), Knowshon Moreno ($3MM), Rashad Jennings ($2.5MM), and Maurice Jones-Drew ($1.2MM).

While those modest contracts are bad news for Johnson, it’s also fair to point out that none of the players listed above possessed Johnson’s combination of upside and previous track record. Jones-Drew certainly has a nice resumé, for instance, but he has struggled with health and performance over the last two seasons and only has three 1,000-yard seasons. Similarly, Tate brings a nice combination of age and upside to the table, but he has never proven he can be a full-time back, while Johnson has accumulated more than 1,000 rushing yards in each of his six NFL seasons.

Adrian Peterson, asked by Mark Carig of the Star Tribune about the declining cost of running backs, offered his thoughts on the matter: “Unfortunately for the guys who were in free agency this year didn’t have incredible numbers or incredible seasons to be able to get the type of [money] they wanted in free agency. I feel like that’s it. I feel like me and a couple of other guys are going to keep it alive as far as running backs being able to come out and keep the running back position at a top level.”

Peterson’s comments suggest that he believes the right running backs will still be able to land big deals in free agency, but that this year’s class just didn’t have any of those top-tier options. If he’s right, the question is whether or not Johnson qualifies as one of those top options. Given the factors in play on both sides of the equation, it’s not hard to see why the former 2,000-yard rusher would be seeking more guaranteed money than his fellow free agent running backs, and it’s not hard to see why there won’t be many clubs left willing to pony up that sort of money. The 28-year-old was expected to be snapped up quickly once he was cut by the Titans, but so far, the rumor mill hasn’t been overly busy, which suggests a disconnect between the way Johnson and NFL teams weigh his value.

Still, Johnson is drawing interest from at least a handful of clubs, and he visited one – the Jets – to start this week. As Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News writes, the veteran running back left the meeting without a contract and doesn’t have any other visits lined up yet.

“I’m just taking it one day at a time, taking my time, and whatever decision I make it’ll be the best decision,” Johnson said yesterday, adding that the Jets were an attractive option and that New York is a “fun city.”

According to Mehta, there are at least three teams in the mix for Johnson. The East Carolina product is recovering from a torn meniscus, and even though he got to 1,000 yards in 2013, those yards were hard to come by — he graded out as the league’s 42nd-best running back out of 55 qualified players last season, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). As such, a one-year deal to rebuild his value may be in Johnson’s best interests. That would allow him to prove his health and hit the open market again in a year, when he can talk to teams before April.

So what would a one-year contract for Johnson look like? Hakeem Nicks‘ one-year pact with the Colts might provide a blueprint. Nicks received a little more than $2MM in guaranteed money on a deal with a base value of about $4MM. However, the receiver can also earn another $1.5MM if he reaches various incentives related to total receptions, touchdowns, and a Pro Bowl spot. An incentive-laden deal for Johnson, which would reward him for a big 2014, could be beneficial for both the player and team.

As for Johnson’s future team, the Jets look to me like the favorites for now, but I wonder if there might be a better situation for the running back to improve his stock. New York’s offense will be incorporating several new pieces, including Michael Vick and Eric Decker, so there could be some growing pains while the club works out the kinks. I think Johnson would find a better fit splitting carries as a home-run threat on a bona-fide contender. However, based on the rumors we’ve heard so far, it doesn’t sound like many of those clubs are interested in the former first-round pick. Teams like the Bills, Falcons, Giants, and Cowboys have been mentioned as potential landing spots, but if I had to make a guess, I’d say the Jets reach an agreement with Johnson in the coming days.

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