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Free Agent Stock Watch: Rolando McClain

March 27th, 2015 at 12:46pm CST by Luke Adams

Less than a year ago, on April 22, 2014, linebacker Rolando McClain retired from the NFL. After being reinstated by the Ravens and working out for the team, McClain had such a poor showing at that workout that he decided to give up his comeback attempt and end his NFL career.Rolando McClain

“I’m done,” McClain said at the time in a text message to Seth Wickersham of ESPN.com. “If football made me complete I would play. But whenever I think of it my heart pulls me away [for] whatever reason.”

About two and a half months later, the Cowboys unexpectedly swung a deal for McClain, sending a late-round draft pick to Baltimore to acquire the former eighth overall pick. Apparently, the veteran linebacker, who has been plagued by off-field troubles since entering the NFL, wasn’t quite as retired as he had suggested back in April. Still, it seemed unlikely that he’d contribute much for the Cowboys after having not appeared in a regular season game since 2012, and having announced his retirement twice in the interim.

As such, McClain’s performance in 2014 was one of the most surprising storylines of the year. In 13 games for Dallas, McClain racked up 87 tackles and a sack to go along with two interceptions. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) ranked McClain eighth out of 60 qualified inside linebackers, and he excelled in every aspect of the game — PFF’s grades placed him eighth as a pass rusher, seventh as a cover man, and 11th as a run defender, among inside linebackers.

Based on that impressive performance, and his pedigree as a former top-10 draft pick, I ranked McClain as the 35th-best free agent available this offseason. However, it’s becoming increasingly clear that teams around the league aren’t necessarily on board with that assessment. Of our top 50 free agents, only four remain unsigned, and only one (Michael Crabtree) ranked higher on our list than McClain.

That wariness is certainly justified. After all, less than 12 months ago, McClain was talking about his heart pulling away from football, which could very well make any team reluctant to offer him a multiyear contract. Additionally, the former Raider failed a third drug test earlier this year — the league’s new substance abuse policy simply calls for a fine for a third failed test, but a fourth violation of the policy would result in an automatic four-game suspension. Potential suitors for McClain may try to alleviate the risk of a possible suspension by include significant per-game roster bonuses in their contract offers, like the Cowboys did with Greg Hardy.

Those off-field concerns surrounding McClain may limit his market, or result in short-term offers, which could help to explain why he remains available. From McClain’s perspective, some long-term security would be preferable, but if he signs a one-year deal and stays healthy, productive, and out of trouble in 2015, it could increase teams’ willingness to commit to him on a longer-term contract a year from now.

As far as potential fits go, Dallas was clearly a good one for McClain, and it certainly wouldn’t hurt the team to bring him back for 2015. Linebackers Justin Durant and Bruce Carter, who were regular contributors in 2014, have signed elsewhere this month, replaced by incoming free agents Jasper Brinkley and Andrew Gachkar. With the linebacking corps undergoing an overhaul this offseason, re-signing McClain to anchor the unit in the middle would at least provide some stability and continuity.

If McClain doesn’t return to Dallas, teams like the Saints, Dolphins, Vikings are among the clubs who run a 4-3 scheme and could use some help at the middle linebacker position. Of course, New Orleans may not be an ideal match for McClain, given his history with former Raiders head coach Dennis Allen, who is now a defensive assistant for the Saints. Free agent players often end up reconnecting with former coaches on new teams, but in the case of McClain and Allen, the relationship in Oakland was somewhat strained.

As far as other former coaches go, McClain could explore the idea of rejoining Tom Cable in Seattle, or Hue Jackson in Cincinnati, though neither of those teams look like the fit that Dallas, Miami, or Minnesota would be.

Ultimately, McClain may be forced to settle for the sort of short-term, prove-it contract that notable free agents like Nick Fairley and Terrance Knighton signed. An impressive 2014 season in Dallas helped to partially rebuild McClain’s value, but it doesn’t appear that any team is ready to spend big on him, particularly since he plays a position where huge free agent deals are somewhat rare. A one-year agreement heavy on incentives and per-game roster bonuses wouldn’t be a surprise.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Michael Crabtree

March 22nd, 2015 at 10:59am CST by Rory Parks

Two weeks ago, we compiled our top 50 free agent list. Since that time, almost all of the players on that list have either signed with a new club, re-signed with their original team, or retired. The most intriguing name remaining is Michael Crabtree, who checked in at No. 29 and who is still looking for a new home.

Last July, our Luke Adams examined Crabtree as an extension candidate. In that piece, Adams described Crabtree’s breakout 2012 campaign, in which he established career highs in receptions (85), receiving yards (1,105), and touchdowns (9). Crabtree was just as dynamic in the postseason that year, compiling 285 yards and three touchdowns through the air and helping San Francisco reach the Super Bowl, where he nearly hauled in a game-winning touchdown on the team’s final drive.

Michael Crabtree

But it has all been downhill from there for Crabtree. In the spring of 2013, the former Texas Tech star–who famously held out until October of his rookie season, thereby becoming the longest rookie holdout in 49ers history–underwent surgery to repair a torn Achilles tendon, and he did not get back on the field until December. He ultimately played just five games in the 2013 season, catching 19 balls for 284 yards and a score.

2014 was a season that most 49ers fans and players would sooner forget, and Crabtree is no exception. He managed to stay on the field for all 16 games, but he caught just 68 passes for 698 yards and four touchdowns. Those are not especially poor numbers, especially in an offense that largely struggled, but they are not the sort of statistics befitting someone of Crabtree’s talents.

As a result, Crabtree, like a number of his fellow veteran wide receivers, has had difficulty generating much interest on the open market this offseason. He visited the Dolphins several days ago, and the Chargers and Washington have also been rumored as potential landing spots. The Dolphins, who recently traded Mike Wallace and who released Brian Hartline earlier this year, would appear to be a strong fit. At this point, though, it does not appear that anything is imminent.

Age, at least, is on Crabtree’s side. He just turned 27 in December, and he has proven that he can be a capable downfield threat when healthy. But it could be that teams simply do not believe Crabtree can ever be healthy enough to replicate his 2012 form. Tony Grossi of ESPNCleveland.com opined (via Twitter) this morning that Crabtree is a descending wideout since the Achilles injury. Although that may be something of a harsh assessment, it is not a stretch to say that Crabtree was just as much a cause of the 49ers’ anemic offense last year as he was a victim of it.

As a result, he may have to settle for a one-year deal to prove himself. A team with an established quarterback and another quality receiving option or two may provide the ideal platform for Crabtree to showcase his talents, but at this point, it is uncertain whether a suitor like that is out there. So Crabtree, like Hakeem Nicks, will continue to hope for an opportunity to show that he has put his injury history behind him and can be the dynamic player of a few seasons ago.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Stock Watch: Julius Thomas

February 14th, 2015 at 4:17pm CST by Sam Robinson

One of the more rapid rising stars in the game, Julius Thomas presents an interesting case in his first foray into free agency. The two-year starting tight end made next to no impact in his first and second seasons, hampered by lingering ankle maladies. But his ensuing two slates create a robust market for the athletic, yet frequently unavailable target.

Does Thomas’ value lie in being an athletic tight end with elite ball skills, a package the Broncos haven’t unleashed since Shannon Sharpe, who played under then-offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak for most of the latter half of his career? Or is he an injury-prone Peyton Manning product? Since the 26-year-old Thomas morphed into a red zone dynamo, with 12 touchdown receptions in each of the past two seasons, and has positioned himself as this market’s top tight end, teams will bid big to find out.Julius Thomas

But the best offer for the 2011 fourth-round pick might not come from the Broncos. Now transitioning back to Kubiak’s offense, which relies heavily on tight ends blocking and not splitting out wide as much, with multiple other dominant free agents to take care of — including Demaryius Thomas and Terrance Knighton — Denver may not be able to afford Julius Thomas’ services. He may not even be in large font on the Broncos’ offseason itinerary considering the scheme change and the numerous ancillary free agents from their 2011 draft class, which is easily the best under fifth-year GM John Elway‘s watch.

Undrafted Pro Bowl cornerback Chris Harris re-upped for 5 years and $42.5MM, and first-rounder Von Miller will play out his fifth-year option on a $9.7MM cap number next season from that class. But Thomas, left guard Orlando Franklin and free safety Rahim Moore (second round), middle linebacker Nate Irving (third) and in-line tight end Virgil Green (sixth) are all free agents who played key roles last season.

Thomas, who played for just $645K last year, has understandably been lukewarm to the idea of a hometown discount, something to which Demaryius Thomas and Knighton have been receptive. With Demaryius Thomas likely to be slapped with the franchise tag, as we discussed Tuesday, the Broncos will need to reach a long-term contract with Julius Thomas to keep him around. Even though Elway reiterated his desire to keep Julius Thomas in Denver in January, per Nicki Jhabvala of the Post, the former Big Sky basketball standout already turned down a deal that would’ve made him one of the league’s top four highest-paid tight ends, a source told Kils in October. With a projected $26MM+ in cap space and more than a third of their starters unsigned, the Broncos likely won’t bring back all of their top three free agents and may be stuck with just one after franchising Demaryius Thomas, should Knighton also receive a strong offer considering his career metamorphosis the past two years.

The case for the Broncos bringing back Julius Thomas depends on which version of Manning they think they’re getting back. The future Hall of Fame quarterback has inflated the numbers for plenty of pass-catchers over the past 18 years, but assuming he returns for his age-39 season — this probably will be the case after the QB iterated his desire to return Friday night — he will need as much firepower as possible to keep the Broncos on their current course. Thomas’ reputation as a bigger wide receiver who is ill-equipped for Kubiak’s system may not be entirely accurate, either. The 6-foot-4, 251-pound Division I-FCS product improved from 2013 when Pro Football Focus (subscription required) tabbed him as the NFL’s second-worst run-blocking tight end to last season when the site gave Thomas a positive grade and slotted him at No. 33 in the category — just two spots behind Rob Gronkowski.

Former Broncos head coach John Fox and OC Adam Gase in a way validated Thomas’ market value by orchestrating a dramatic overhaul of the offense — to a C.J. Anderson-heavy ground approach — the week after Thomas encountered ankle turmoil for the fourth straight season. Not that there weren’t additional factors in Manning’s decline in the season’s second half, but the Broncos’ offense didn’t look the same without its top touchdown target. Without Thomas at full strength, a level he didn’t return to after his latest injury, Manning had just two games with a quarterback rating over 86 — against the Dolphins and Chargers, respectively. This precipitous fall came after Manning (22 TD passes and just three interceptions in the Broncos’ first seven games) charted just one game under 110 in a stretch that wasn’t a bad imitation of his 2013 MVP effort. Thomas had nine TD grabs during Denver’s peak span and three multi-score showings.

The case against re-signing Thomas hinges on what the Broncos do with Knighton, how much they want to invest in the aforementioned 2011 draft class, how much money they allocate to reshape their offensive line and, perhaps most importantly, whether they feel the tight end’s availability justifies his likely high re-up price. As TheMMQB’s Peter King summarized last year, Thomas considered giving up football after a persistent ankle injury he sustained in 2011 dogged him throughout his first two seasons. Overall, ankle problems forced him to miss 28 games in four years. But teams with shaky tight end outlooks — the Raiders, Cardinals and Browns, to name a few — likely won’t have as much of an issue with Thomas’ negatives, considering a player with these numbers rarely reaches free agency.

If Jared Cook and Kyle Rudolph could ink $7MM-per-year deals within the last couple years — Cook as a free agent with production nowhere near Thomas’ — Thomas has a good chance to earn top-five money at the position. That top five currently ends with Rudolph and starts with Jimmy Graham‘s $10MM-per-year contract signed last year, per OverTheCap.com.

Re-signing Green ($645K in his fourth season last year) or someone like Dolphins free agent Charles Clay makes sense if the Broncos don’t want to meet Thomas’ salary wishes, but for a team whose title window depends heavily on the success of an aging quarterback with fading arm strength, it might be prudent to keep his main weapons around — especially the one who is Manning’s preferred option to finish off drives. The cap math adds up better for the Broncos if Manning renegotiates his salary — something we learned on Friday he could be willing to do — which is set for $19MM and a $21.5MM cap hit.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

2015 Free Agent Stock Watch Series

February 9th, 2015 at 8:59am CST by Luke Adams

2015’s NFL free agent period is just a few weeks away, as this year’s free-agents-to-be will be eligible to speak to other teams starting on March 7, and can sign contracts with rival suitors as of March 10 at 3:00pm central time.

Over the next few weeks, Pro Football Rumors will be heavily focused on free agency, and that means taking a closer look at several of the higher-profile players who could hit the open market next month. Our Free Agent Stock Watch pieces will explore what a player brings to a club, what sort of earnings he can expect on his next contract, teams that could be in the market for the player, and where the player might want to end up, along with any other relevant factors.

The list of players we’ve profiled so far is below, and will grow exponentially over the next several weeks. This post, which can be found on the right sidebar under “PFR Features,” will be updated each time we publish a new Free Agent Stock Watch piece, so be sure to check back to read up on the latest additions. The players below are listed in alphabetical order.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Bryan Bulaga

February 5th, 2015 at 9:28pm CST by Rory Parks

After missing all of 2013 due to an ACL tear, Bryan Bulaga turned in a fine performance in 2014, the final year of his rookie contract. The former first-round pick out of the University of Iowa, a veritable factory of quality offensive linemen, graded out as the 16th best tackle, and 4th best right tackle, in the league per Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required). He received especially high marks for his pass blocking performance in support of league MVP Aaron Rodgers, yielding just four sacks–two of which came in one game–and two other quarterback hits over the course of the season.

Bryan Bulaga (Vertical)

In addition to his strong 2014 campaign, which culminated in a heartbreaking defeat to Seattle in the NFC Championship Game, Bulaga brings a few other noteworthy accomplishments to the table. He was named to the league’s all-rookie team in 2010, and he was the youngest player to ever start in a Super Bowl when the Packers bested the Steelers in Super Bowl XLV. PFF also ranked him as the 7th best tackle in football in 2011, just his second year in the league (subscription required).

However, he does come with an injury history. Even before the ACL tear that he suffered in August 2013, Bulaga suffered a hip injury nine games into the 2012 season that kept him sidelined for the rest of the year. As a result, he spent nearly two years on injured reserve, meaning that he needed a year like 2014 to not only prove that he was a top-flight tackle, but that he could stay healthy for a full season.

Despite missing Green Bay’s Week 2 matchup against the Jets this year, Bulaga largely managed to stay injury-free, which, combined with his strong play, puts him in excellent position for a big payday. Although there are a few other solid tackles eligible for free agency this year, most notably Doug Free, Michael Roos, and King Dunlap, Bulaga has one significant advantage over all of them: his age. At 26, Bulaga should still have a few prime years remaining, while those other free agent tackles will be at least 30 at some point in 2015.

Last year, Austin Howard scored the top deal among free agent right tackles, landing a five-year, $30MM contract with the Raiders, including $15MM in guaranteed money. Even Michael Oher, who was just released today, managed to snag a four-year, $20MM deal with Tennessee last season. Bulaga is more talented than both, and he will likely be paid accordingly. Although he has never played left tackle in his pro career–the Packers had planned to utilize him in that role before his ACL tear in 2013–he did play on the blind side while with Iowa, and he could at least represent an emergency solution at left tackle should the need arise. And, as the best overall tackle in free agency, he may end up getting paid like a second-tier left tackle, perhaps netting a deal in the five-year, $35MM range, which is what Jared Veldheer received from Arizona last year.

Green Bay would surely love to have Bulaga back. In late December, offensive line coach James Campen said of his right tackle, “He’s heavier than he’s ever been; he’s stronger…Remember, he was a young guy coming out of college, so he’s grown into his body and he has a clear understanding of the scheme, so he’s playing with total confidence. He knows exactly what’s going to happen, where it’s going to happen” (link via Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com). There is no reason to think that Bulaga himself would not like to continue his career where it began, though he was understandably in no state to discuss his future after Green Bay fell to the Seahawks several weeks ago.

But, if he does not re-sign with the Packers before free agency opens on March 10, he will likely be one of the first players to come off the board, and his presence should be a great comfort to whatever quarterback lines up behind him.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Stock Watch: Nick Fairley

February 1st, 2015 at 3:54pm CST by Dallas Robinson

With the offseason around the corner, the Lions’ most pressing concern from a roster standpoint is undeniably the impending free agency of defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, who topped the most recent edition of our 2015 Free Agent Power Rankings. Reports had indicated the Detroit would consider all the options at its disposal to retain Suh, and today Chris Mortensen of ESPN reported that the Lions are in a good position to re-sign the All-Pro. But because Suh is expected to receive a contract that rivals the $100MM pact between J.J. Watt and the Texans, the Lions probably won’t be able to keep its other talented defensive tackle, fourth-year player Nick Fairley.Nick Fairley

Assuming a $140MM cap, the Lions will have approximately $15.4MM of 2015 cap space with which to work. Depending on how Suh’s potential extension is structured, much of that space could be already be spoken for. Mortensen’s report indicated that receiver Calvin Johnson could restructure his contract to create more financial flexibility for the club, allowing the Lions to re-sign Suh and add even more talent. Regardless, cap space in Detroit figures to be tight, leading Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press to tweet today that Fairley returning to the Motor City is a “long shot.”

Of course, the Lions could have had Fairley under team control for the 2015 season had they opted to exercise his fifth-year option last May. Because it selected Fairley in the first round of the 2011 draft, Detroit could have retained Fairley next season for a base salary in the neighborhood of $5.5MM. General manager Martin Mayhew & Co. opted to decline the option, and explained the decision as a motivational tactic, hoping to push Fairley into performing at high level in 2014. The maneuver created something of a Catch-22 — though Fairley did perform well last season, the Lions have now allowed him to hit free agency a year earlier than was needed.

Utilizing the fifth-year option decision as a strategy to motivate Fairley was an understandable move at the time, as the former 11th overall draft pick had failed to live up to expectations. The Auburn product started just 22 games during his first three seasons in the NFL, posting 12.5 sacks over that span. He had a nice season in 2012, grading as the fifth-best defensive tackle among 85 qualifiers per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). In ’13, however, Fairley slipped to to No. 31 per PFF, as his run defense grade slipped significantly.

In 2014, Fairley was playing at perhaps his highest level yet before suffering a sprained MCL and PCL in Week 8 — he didn’t play again the rest of the season. Despite his limited amounted of snaps (297), he still placed as the league’s 18th-best DT per PFF; his grade would have been better save for is -4.0 penalty mark. Fairley’s absence on the Detroit defense was tangible — though the unit ranked third in DVOA, it placed seventh in weighted DVOA, which more heavily factors more recent performance.

Fairley will be a part of a relatively strong free agent defensive tackle class, but assuming Suh remains in Detroit, Fairley would have a claim to the No. 1 spot at the position. He’s undoubtedly a top-five choice among DTs, with Terrance Knighton, Jared Odrick, and Dan Williams also intriguing FAs for clubs looking for interior defensive line help. Williams is a 3-4 nose tackle, so he probably won’t interest the same teams that look into Fairley; Knighton, as well, is more of a space-eater. Odrick is probably the most similar competitor among free agent tackles, and it’s notable that Fairley and Odrick produced the top two pass-rushing grades among FA defensive tackles, per PFF.

Given his uneven career performance and his recent injury history, Fairley certainly isn’t in line for a Watt/Suh/Gerald McCoy-type contract that averages more than $12MM per year. The Geno Atkins deal, with an AAV of roughly $10.7MM, is probably out of reach as well. Linval Joseph‘s five-year, $31.25MM pact with the Vikings, signed last offseason, is pretty clearly the floor for Fairley. Joseph was a bit younger than Fairley at the time he inked his contract, but Joseph had never played to the level that Fairely has demonstrated he’s capable of. As such, Fairley will probably be looking for a five-year deal with an AAV that pushes $7MM, with guarantees in the neighborhood of $13-14MM.

Fairley shouldn’t suffer from a lack of suitors, as clubs that perhaps had their eye on Suh can turn their attention to Fairley, provided Suh stays with the Lions. Teams such as the Raiders, Jaguars, Bengals, Broncos (should they lose Knighton), and Falcons (depending on scheme) all make sense for Fairley, who just turned 27 years old. He’s spent his career in a 4-3 defensive front, and given his pass-rushing acumen, it would likely serve him to stay in that scheme. But at 6’4″ and more than 300 pounds, he could conceivably play end in a 3-4 look, and interest clubs like the Chargers, Colts, and Titans, but again, his talents play up in a 4-3. Additionally, if former Lions head coach Jim Schwartz lands a role with a team, it will be interesting to see if he lobbies to bring in Fairley, his ex-pupil.

Fairley said back in August that he’d like to stay with the Lions, but given the massive contract that Suh will garner, it seems wholly unlikely Detroit can keep both its defensive tackles. The club was already spending the second-most on its defensive line in 2014, and that figure would surely rise with new contracts for both Suh and Fairley. Free agency now presents that most likely (and tantalizing) route for Fairely, who should do well on the open market.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jason Pierre-Paul

December 8th, 2014 at 10:31pm CST by Rory Parks

In 2011, just his second year in the league, Jason Pierre-Paul displayed in grand fashion just what made him so appealing to the Giants, who selected him with the 15th overall pick of the 2010 draft. Using a rare and dynamic blend of size, speed, and athleticism, the man affectionately known as “JPP” racked up 16.5 sacks and was ranked by Pro Football Focus (subscription required) as the league’s sixth best 4-3 defensive end out of 67 eligible players. Pierre-Paul also led his position in total tackles, and he earned first-team All-Pro honors in recognition of his efforts as the most dangerous defensive player on the eventual Super Bowl champions.

It would have been difficult to top his outstanding 2011 campaign, but there seems to be a general belief, probably driven in large part by his lower sack totals, that Pierre-Paul has not even come close to replicating his performance from that season. Although he did amass only 6.5 sacks in 2012, PFF (subscription required) ranked him third among 62 qualified 4-3 defensive ends that year, and after an injury-shortened 2013, JPP is up to his old tricks this season, ranking as the fourth-best player at his position among 54 eligible players (subscription required). Although the Giants’ defense as a whole has been fairly pedestrian over the course of Pierre-Paul’s career (according to Football Outsiders’ metrics), Pierre-Paul seems to be holding up his end of the bargain.

Jason Pierre-Paul

Nonetheless, the two sides appear headed for a parting of the ways after 2014. As PFR’s Rob DiRe wrote last month, Pierre-Paul appeared ambivalent about returning to the club in 2015, stating, “Hey, if I’m here, I’m here, if I’m not, I’m not.” JPP did deliver the usual platitudes while discussing how much he has enjoyed his time as a Giant, but for a struggling team that has a bevy of potentially franchise-altering questions to answer this offseason, a mega-deal for Pierre-Paul might not be the wisest investment, no matter how much cap room New York might have.

So what will a new contract look like for a player in the prime of his career who plays a premium position and who may hit double-digit sack totals for the second time in four full seasons in the league? Robert Quinn, a 4-3 defensive end who was drafted one year later than Pierre-Paul and who has put together three consecutive seasons of 10.5 or more sacks (including a whopping 19 in 2013), signed a four-year extension with St. Louis in September, a deal worth about $67MM.

That contract seems to be a fair benchmark for JPP, although he stands to make more on the open market than he would if he were to sign an extension with New York. Another reasonable comparison might be Justin Houston, a premier pass rusher from the outside linebacker position who expects to land a contract valued somewhere between Quinn’s deal and the extension recently signed by J.J. Watt, a six-year pact worth as much as $100MM (with $51.8MM guaranteed). A five-year deal worth $80MM would seem like a fair price for both Houston and JPP, and that is about what I would expect both players to make on the free agent market.

Of course, the franchise tag remains an option, but as Paul Schwartz of the New York Post pointed out in October, the nearly $15MM projected cost of the tag “is impractical and probably impossible for the Giants to handle.” Schwartz also notes that Pierre-Paul, who was just 21 when he was drafted, is hitting free agency at a younger age than most players, and his willingness and ability to stop the run is not only an underrated part of his game, but also an attribute often difficult to find among so-called pass-rush specialists.

The knocks on JPP, of course, are his injury history—he struggled with back and shoulder injuries in 2012 and 2013—his relatively modest sack total after 2011, and the fact that much of his success is based on his athleticism rather than his technique, which is still raw in many ways. But, as Schwartz wrote, and as Pro Football Focus evaluations indicate, the sack totals are not indicative of Pierre-Paul’s abilities, and if he can complete 2014 in good health, the injury concerns may begin to fade. So while JPP’s next contract will probably not match Watt’s, he could get surprisingly close—especially in this era of the ever-increasing salary cap—and his departure would leave a very big hole in Big Blue. The Giants will have to decide if mending that hole is worth the price.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Mark Sanchez

December 7th, 2014 at 4:45pm CST by Dallas Robinson

After being selected fifth overall in the 2011 draft, and subsequently leading the Jets to the AFC Championship game in each of his first two NFL seasons, Mark SanMark Sanchezchez‘s career in New York came to an ignominious end earlier this year. He missed the entire 2013 season after suffering a shoulder injury during a preseason game, and was released on March 21, a week after free agency began. Sanchez quickly joined the Eagles, signing a one-year contract worth $2.25MM to act as Nick Foles‘ backup.

It’s possible that Sanchez, given his lack of success with the Jets, was unable to find a starting role on the free agent market. However, many theorized that the USC product wanted to latch on with Chip Kelly & Co. in Philadelphia, play in a more dynamic offense than the one he struggled in in New York, and face better free agency prospects in 2015. If that was Sanchez’s plan, it certainly worked out, as he excelled during the preseason, leading to trade speculation even before the regular season got underway. And while Sanchez surely wasn’t hoping for an injury to lead to his ascension to the starting QB job, Foles’ broken collarbone has allowed Sanchez to seize the signal-calling reins in Philadelphia.

Since becoming the starter in Week 8, Sanchez has performed well, completing more than 63% of his passes for 1,404 yards, eight touchdowns, and six interceptions, leading the Eagles to a 4-1 record and maintaining the top spot in the NFC East. Advanced metrics aren’t as complimentary of Sanchez — Pro Football Focus grades him as just the 26th-best QB in the league since Week 8 (subscription required), while Football Outsiders ranks him 29th in DVOA (a rate stat that doesn’t penalize for lack of playing time).

Nevertheless, Sanchez has kept the Eagles afloat in Foles’ absence, as Philadelphia’s offense has continued to function with its backup under center. Because of that, it’s fair to look at the possibility of Sanchez remaining with the Eagles for 2015 and beyond. A November report suggested that Foles’ future with the club was in jeopardy, as general manager Howie Roseman had grown frustrated with the third-year QB and had already begun researching alternatives. Kelly later denied the report’s implications, but it’s apparent that Foles is not the ideal quarterback for Kelly’s system. Sanchez probably isn’t the prototype for a Kelly offense either, but most insiders believe that he has more impressive physical tools than Foles.

The Eagles also have second-year quarterback Matt Barkley on the their depth chart, and while he’s not a candidate to see significant playing time, it speaks to the muddled QB situation in Philly. Ideally, Kelly would surely prefer to add a quarterback like Oregon’s Marcus Mariota — a mobile, dual-threat option perfectly suited to his offensive scheme. With that an unlikely possibility, the Eagles could look to retain both Sanchez and Foles, and let the two engage in a training camp battle. However, Sanchez would probably want to be promised a starting job, so if he does return to Philadelphia, Foles could become trade bait.

The more likely scenario, though, sees Sanchez depart Philadelphia in search of a long-term deal that ensures him a starting gig. He shouldn’t have trouble finding a job, especially because quarterback talent is so diffucult to acquire. With even mid-tier options like Andy Dalton and Alex Smith receiving big money extensions, the QB market is usually barren, so a mediocre talent such as Sanchez can be rewarded on the open market. Additionally, Sanchez is clearly the No. 1 option among free agent quarterbacks. Brian Hoyer is the only other FA QB whom teams might feel comfortable employing as a starter, and it’s safe to say that Sanchez will be in higher demand than the Browns quarterback.

So where does Sanchez fit? PFR’s Luke Adams recently examined the state of the quarterback position around the league and identified eight teams who have no clear-cut 2015 starter. The Jets probably don’t want to reunite with its former draft pick, and the Bills, Browns, Buccaneers, and Titans will probably turn to internal options or a high draft-pick next season. By my estimation, that leaves three teams that could show heavy interest in Sanchez during the offseason — the Texans, Washington, and the Rams.

We’ll place the Texans and Washington in one bucket, as I think their level of intrigue regarding Sanchez could be similar. The Texans have all the pieces of a contending team in place except for a capable quarterback; Arian Foster is one of the best running backs in the league, and J.J. Watt and the rest of Houston’s defense is excellent. The QB combination of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Ryan Mallett has been lackluster this season, however, limiting the Texans’ upside. Fitzpatrick is under contract for 2015 but isn’t guaranteed any money, while Mallett is injured and will be a free agent at season’s end, though the team has expressed interest in retaining him. The club also has rookie Tom Savage, but Sanchez could add the boost the team needs to get over the hump.

Unlike Houston, Washington doesn’t have a solid core to build around. The team has a few sound offensive pieces, but its offensive line and its defense could use some work. Regardless, the club is expected to move on from Robert Griffin III during the offseason, leaving a void at quarterback that neith Colt McCoy nor Kirk Cousins will likely be able to fill. Head coach Jay Gruden runs a offensive scheme that has some similarities to that of Kelly, with an air attack that focuses on accuracy and quick passes. It’s a system that Griffin has failed to grasp, but one that Sanchez could potentially thrive in.

The best destination for Sanchez, though, might be St. Louis, where Sam Bradford is expected to be released after suffering yet another major injury. Like the Texans, the Rams have pieces in place to contend — Tre Mason and Stedman Bailey highlight a young offensive core, while the Rams’ defense ranked 10th in defensive DVOA even before today’s shutout of Washington. St. Louis showed interest in Sanchez before the season, and Rams offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer is familiar with Sanchez from the duo’s time in New York. As PFR’s Rob DiRe passed along last week, competent quarterback play could vault St. Louis into contention in the NFC West.

As Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap wrote in November, a player of Sanchez’s caliber could generally expect ~$2MM to act as a serviceable backup. Now that he’s proven his ability to return to a starting role, however, Sanchez could be looking for a larger contract. A handful of comparable QBs signed free agent contracts prior to this season — Kyle Orton joined the Bills on a two-year, $11MM pact ($5.5MM guaranteed), and Matt Cassel re-signed with the Vikings on a two-year deal worth $10.5MM ($5.25MM in guarantees). Sanchez has youth, upside, and better production on his side, so he can probably garner a more favorable deal than either Orton or Casseel did. A three-year pact in the $18-20MM range, with perhaps $8MM guaranteed, sounds about right, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s the Rams that offer that figure to Sanchez.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Matt Prater

October 5th, 2014 at 4:33pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Kicker is among the most volatile positions in the NFL — in fact, 41% of kickers (13-of-32) weren’t with their current team as recently as 2012. With a position that fluid, teams look fondly upon stability, meaning available solid veterans won’t be out of work for long. In the case of Matt Prater, it might be mere days until he finds a new job.Matt Prater

Prater, 30, entered the league in 2005 as an undrafted free agent out of Central Florida. Like most kickers, he was extremely nomadic during the early portion of his career, spending time with the Lions, Dolphins, and Falcons before becoming the Broncos’ full-time kicker in 2008. During his time in Denver, Prater converted 82.9% of field goals. 2013 was perhaps his best season to date, as he made 25-of-26 field goals, and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 placekicker (subscription required).

Though other external factors could have been at play, it seems that two components played a part in the Broncos releasing Prater on Friday — off-the-field issues and cap space. Prater was suspended for the first four games of 2014 for violating the league’s substance abuse policy; he was also arrested for DUI in both 2008 and 2011. Given the NFL’s hyper-sensitivity to distractions, it’s no wonder Denver decided to part ways with a relatively replaceable player who was causing trouble.

Replacing Prater as the Broncos kicker is Brandon McManus, a second-year player earning just $410K this season. Prater, meanwhile, was set to count more than $7MM against Denver’s cap during 2014-15. As Jason Fitzgerald observed on yesterday’s Over the Cap podcast, the Broncos have several extensions looming, as both Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas are in line for new contracts. Additionally, said Fitzgerald, Denver’s high-octane offense means the team isn’t often settling for field goals, lessening the need for a high-priced kicker. It simply didn’t make financial sense for the Broncos to keep Prater around, so they cut him before his 2014 salary became guaranteed.

The list of teams in need of a kicker could certainly change as the season progresses, but right now, it seems as though the Lions could be a perfect fit for Prater. After waiving Nate Freese following his early-season struggles, Detroit brought in ex-Eagle Alex Henery. Henery, however, missed all three of his field goal attempts in today’s game against the Bills, and is now 1-for-5 on the season. Both Kyle Meinke of MLive.com and Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com suggested that the Lions could be interested in Prater, and that was before Henery’s misfires this afternoon. Fitzgerald notes (via Twitter) that Detroit, which only has about $1MM in cap space, might have to restructure some contracts or defer money until 2015 in order to sign Prater.

La Canfora also mentioned the Saints as a possibility for Prater, while I’d add that the Titans could soon be interested in moving on from Ryan Succop, who missed both of his field goal attempts in Week 3 and is 6-for-8 on the season. Ultimately, Prater will likely find a new team shortly, and it seems as though Detroit could be his destination.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Richie Incognito

August 10th, 2014 at 4:31pm CST by Dallas Robinson

As I noted in my evaluation of Jonathan Vilma‘s free agency stock, there are several positions in today’s NFL that are quite fungible — among them are running back, inside linebacker, and offensive guard. Of these devalued positions, guard might be the spot where veteran experience is still highly esteemed. Unlike the backfield or a front seven, a successful offensive line requires not only talent, but a sort of unspoken connectivity among the linemen. The best front fives in football are often those who have experienced stability, allowing the five players to mesh.Richie Incognito

If a team suffers a guard injury in the coming weeks, it may not want to turn to a rookie or another unseasoned young player. Rather, a team in need of line help might seek a veteran player with several years of experience under his belt. At this point in the offseason, however, such players don’t come without warts, so if and when a team looks for reinforcements at guard, the best remaining option might be the embattled Richie Incognito.

The reason why Incognito is still unemployed is obvious — his involvement in the Jonathan Martin scandal, during which Incognito bullied and harassed Martin until he left the team, is unsettling, to say the least. From an outsider’s perspective, it’s hard to judge whether Incognito’s behavior was incongruent with that of a typical NFL locker room. But the fact that he remains unsigned is an indication that either teams were disturbed by Incognito’s conduct, or aren’t willing to handle the media swarm that would occur following his signing.

But despite Incognito’s troubles, the reality of the NFL is that talent wins out. Players like Michael Vick and Ben Roethlisberger were accused of and/or charged with unsavory acts, but both were allowed back into the NFL. Vick was signed to a massive extension with the Eagles, and the Steelers will look to tack on years to Roethlisberger’s deal after 2014. If a player is able to compete at a high level, the league tends to look the other way when it comes to his past.

The 6’3″, 320-pound Incognito has certainly displayed effectiveness since entering the NFL as a third-round pick of the Rams in 2006. After several anger-related incidents, and racking up 38 penalites (seven unnecessary roughness calls), he was waived by St. Louis in 2009. After being claimed by the Bills, he spent one season in Buffalo before playing with the Dolphins from 2010-13. He was suspended indefinitely in November of last year, and his contract expired after the season.

In total, Incognito has started 102 games over the course of his career, spending time at both guard spots (though he has played only left guard in recent seasons). Pro Football Focus’ data (subscription required) only goes back to 2007, but the site’s advanced metrics have positively graded each of Incognito’s seasons. For most of his career, PFF’s statistics indicated that Incognito was a better run-blocker than pass-protector, but since 2012, those data points have flipped. Regardless, Incognito is unquestionably a top-30 guard, and topped out as the 16th-best guard in the league in 2010.

So will Incognito find a team for 2014? It’s difficult to project — on May 28, one general manager told Mike Freeman of Bleacher Report that despite Incognito’s attempts to get back in the league, his return was unlikely, as “no one trusts him.” A month later, sources were telling Freeman’s colleague, Dan Pompei, that while Incognito is easily the best available interior lineman, no team wants to deal with the fallout of signing him. However, on August 8, Incognito told Josh Peter of USA Today that his agent had received “a few nibbles” from teams during the offseason.

Any team that brings in Incognito will factor in the possibility that he will be suspended and miss a portion of 2014. However, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell recently sounded quite pleased with Incognito’s headway since the bullying incident took place. “It’s a broad issue,” said Goodell, via Connor Orr of the Newark Star-Ledger. “I would say that the one person who has been very responsive in going through the program has been Richie Incognito. We’re working with his people and monitoring his progress on that front.”

The Giants could have interest in Incognito — longtime guard Chris Snee announced his retirement last month, and New York had no problem bringing in Incognito’s former teammate John Jerry, who was also involved in the Martin scandal. The Buccaneers, who parted ways with Carl Nicks on July 25, could also use help at guard. Additionally, teams will inevitably suffer injuries at the position as the preseason proceeds, and will seek to add veteran depth.

In the end, Incognito’s fate will be determined by a simple cost-benefit analysis: Factoring in the inexorable media pressure that would ensue, is Incognito’s above-average play worth the headache of adding him? My guess is yes — his talent is undeniable, and a team will eventually get desperate enough to sign him. Guaranteed money or a guaranteed roster spot will be out of the question, but some team will be willing to take a gamble on Incognito in order to reap the reward.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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