Free Agent Stock Watch News & Rumors

Free Agent Stock Watch: Chiefs S Tyrann Mathieu

November 29th, 2021 at 9:30pm CST by Ely Allen

He’s been here before and has seen his value fluctuate rather broadly over the course of his nine-year career. Tyrann Mathieu hopes he’ll cash in on the high end on this go round as he tries to steady a Kansas City defense that has struggled early in the season.

The former LSU Tiger was drafted in the third round by the Cardinals in 2013. He was solid through his first couple of pro seasons, but he truly broke out in his Year 3 with five interceptions and 17 passes defensed en route to first-team All-Pro honors. Despite the ACL tear that capped his 2015, the Cardinals rewarded the rangy safety with an eye-popping five-year, $62.5MM extension just before the start of ’16.

His first foray into free agency came in 2018, when he refused to take a pay cut. Three days later, the Texans took a flier on Mathieu with a one-year, $7MM deal. The next year, he moved on to the Chiefs, who furnished him with a three-year, $42MM contract. Rejuvenated in KC, he went on to capture a Super Bowl ring and nab ten interceptions over the next two years.

Now Mathieu sits in a contract year once again. He’s seen his value fluctuate from a rookie deal to $12.5MM per annum to $7MM all the way to to his current contract, valuing him at $14MM per year.

He’s had a good a year so far — two picks, one pick-six, five passes defensed, and a sack for good measure. Still, he’ll need a bigger second half in order to land the kind of deal that he wants. Fortunately, there’s still plenty of time to pad the highlight reel and ample opportunity as the Chiefs make their playoff push.

Mathieu is unlikely to top Jamal Adams ($17.5MM per year), but there’s reason to believe that he could approach Harrison Smith‘s deal ($16MM per year). After all, Smith inked his four-year re-up in his age 32 season. Mathieu, meanwhile, won’t turn 30 until May.

While Mathieu does have a bit of an injury history, he’s got plenty of gas left in the tank and an All-Pro skillset to offset any concerns. As long as he keeps his foot on the pedal, Mathieu should still be able to command top dollar for his services this spring.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Chiefs OT Orlando Brown Jr.

November 26th, 2021 at 8:30pm CST by Ely Allen

He bet on himself to be a focal point of a team’s offensive line and he hopes to see that bet pay off this spring. Set to be a free agent after the 2021-22 season concludes, Orlando Brown Jr. has had an interesting journey through his rookie contract.

A unanimous All-American at Oklahoma, Brown was selected in the third round of the 2018 NFL Draft by the Ravens. Despite being considered a first-round pick for much of his last year in college, a poor performance at the NFL Combine plummeted the young tackle’s stock. Brown quickly made sure that the football world knew he was not going to be defined by his combine performance and became widely considered one of the biggest steals of the draft. Six games into his rookie year, an injury to starting right tackle James Hurst thrust Brown into a starting role. Brown, meanwhile, hasn’t missed a single game since taking over.

Brown went to his first Pro Bowl in 2019 after his first full season as the Ravens’ starting right tackle. The next year an injury to newly extended left tackle Ronnie Stanley pushed Brown to the left side of the offensive line for the last 1o games of the season. Brown made his second Pro Bowl that year after playing most of the year at left tackle.

At that point Brown made it clear to the Ravens that he intended to be the best left tackle in the NFL. This put Baltimore in a difficult position as they had signed Stanley to a five-year extension worth $98.75 MM just prior to the 2020 season. Stanley, a First-Team All-Pro in 2019, had been drafted only two years prior to Brown and had established himself as the future blindside blocker in Baltimore. But Brown’s determination to play on the left side of the line stemmed from his late father’s wish that he not settle for any other position in the NFL, so Brown requested a trade to an organization that would allow him to live that dream.

The Ravens honored Brown’s request and traded him, along with a second-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and a sixth-round pick in the 2022 NFL draft, to the Chiefs for a first-, third-, and fourth-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and a fifth-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. It was initially thought that Kansas City would extend the young stalwart tackle and lock down their future at the position, but the Chiefs held off, allowing Brown to play out the final year of his rookie contract.

Perhaps the Chiefs wanted to be sure that Brown could perform in a pass-happy system that differed greatly from the Ravens’ run-heavy offense. Brown’s play has not suffered as he continues to use his length well in pass-blocking and, while not dominant as a run-blocker, he rarely misses blocks in the run game.

It’s not expected that Kansas City would let their blindside blocker walk after only one year. Brown should expect a strong extension offer from the Chiefs. And while it may not be feasible to reach the yearly average value of contracts like Trent Williams ($23.01MM) or David Bakhtiari ($23 MM), the contracts of other young tackles like Laremy Tunsil ($22MM per year) and former teammate Stanley ($19.75MM) should serve as a good jumping off point to determine Brown’s worth.

A conversation will probably need to be had with quarterback and former MVP Patrick Mahomes as his cap hit is expected to jump from $7.43MM in 2021 to $35.79MM in 2022. If the Chiefs are not able to make a deal work, Brown will certainly become one of the top offseason priorities for any team interested in a franchise left tackle.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin

October 14th, 2021 at 1:01pm CST by Zachary Links

He figures to be one of the hottest free agents of the spring. Still, Chris Godwin presents an unusual case. To date, the former third-round pick has just one 1,000-yard season on his resume.

Godwin went off for 1,333 yards and nine touchdowns in 2019, positioning him as one of the game’s best young wideouts. His 2020 was sidetracked by multiple injuries, softening what could have been an explosive encore. To his credit, the Penn State product still notched 840 yards off of 65 catches in 12 games. He remains an essential part of Tampa Bay’s loaded skill-position corps, as evidenced by his $15.983MM franchise tag.

Godwin might have a stronger resume today if another team drafted him in 2017. Even though he’s flourished with the Bucs, he spent his first couple of years behind DeSean Jackson. Now, he’s one of several standouts, joined by the likes of Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, and Rob Gronkowski. So far, he’s still managed to shine this year with a 29/366/2 line through five games. That includes his whopper of a season opener — nine grabs for 105 yards and a score over the Cowboys.

The Buccaneers moved heaven and earth to re-up all of their stars while tagging Godwin. They’ll need to work some more magic this spring, because Godwin should easily match Kenny Golladay‘s contract. The Giants furnished Golladay with $72MM over four years, including $40MM guaranteed and another potential $4MM in incentives. Keep in mind — Golladay was 27 at the time of signing and Godwin will turn 26 in late February. Plus, Golladay was dealing with a depressed salary cap. Next year’s increase will help the young Buc.

Speaking of Golladay, the Lions still need to replace his production. Godwin would be an excellent fit, though they’ll also have to address their woeful secondary, front seven, and just about every other position group. It’s also worth noting that the Patriots — who haven’t had the best luck drafting WRs — will be cash-flush. But, given the Bucs’ ability to keep the band together, we’d be surprised to see Godwin leave Tampa next year.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Kawann Short

June 24th, 2021 at 10:33am CST by Zachary Links

He was one of the NFL’s premier defensive tackles across multiple seasons. Now, he stands as one of the very best free agents left on the board. We haven’t heard much about Kawann Short since he was released in February, but the former Panthers star shouldn’t have too much trouble finding his next employer.

Short said “a few teams” reached out over the winter, mostly with interest in one-year deals due to his recent shoulder injuries. That’s a clear red flag, but suitors might feel better knowing that the Panthers have left the door open to a reunion. New GM Scott Fitterer told Short that’d he’d be willing to talk about a new deal — something less than his previous five-year, $80MM pact.

Short, 32, has played in just five games over the past two seasons. He’s torn both of his rotator cuffs in that span, preventing him from doing his usual fine work. Before all of that, Short was a key pillar of the Panthers’ defense. His first nod came in 2015 when he registered eleven sacks. In 2017, he turned in a 7.5-sack season. And, just two years ago, he earned his second Pro Bowl nod.

The veteran won’t match his previous $16MM AAV, but plenty of teams should be willing to put a deal on the table. For starters, there’s the Buffalo—Carolina pipeline; Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott would love to add him to the Bills’ already stacked interior. Alternatively, if former foe Dan Quinn wants to add Short to his defense, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones would surely break out the checkbook. The Seahawks also have a knack for signing big-name vets and a healthy Short would ease the sting of losing Jarran Reed. Though it’s hard to bank on Short’s health and availability, he’d be one heck of a summer addition on a one-year, ~$2MM deal.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Marcus Williams

February 17th, 2021 at 9:17pm CST by Rory Parks

Though he has yet to earn a Pro Bowl nomination, the Saints’ Marcus Williams has established himself as one of the best young safeties in the NFL. A member of New Orleans’ loaded 2017 draft class that also included Marshon Lattimore, Ryan Ramczyk, Alvin Kamara, and Trey Hendrickson, Williams’ presence in the secondary has been instrumental in the Saints’ defensive success over his first four years in the league.

Williams, a free safety, is a prototypical centerfielder and ball-hawker whose one true weakness coming into the 2020 season was his tackling ability. But he made great strides in that regard, as Pro Football Focus charged him with just two missed tackles last year. PFF ranked Williams as the seventh-best safety in the game in 2020, and while it was especially bullish on his run defense, he also scored well in coverage.

Between that and his playmaking abilities — he has recorded 13 interceptions and 30 passes defensed over his first four years in the league — Williams will be a hot commodity if the Saints let him hit the open market. And New Orleans might not have a choice. The club’s salary cap problems have been well-documented, and we heard over the weekend that re-signing Hendrickson — whose 13.5 sacks were the second-most in the NFL last season — may not be possible.

The same goes for Williams. The Utah product will justifiably be aiming for the top of the safety market, which is currently headed by the Cardinals’ Budda Baker‘s $14.75MM average annual value. The Bears’ Eddie Jackson ($14.6MM) and the Titans’ Kevin Byard ($14.1MM) are not too far behind in terms of AAV, and all three players landed guarantees north of $30MM. Theoretically, GM Mickey Loomis could backload a Williams contract in an effort to fit him under the 2021 salary cap, but Loomis will have a number of difficult decisions to make, and even a backloaded deal might be too rich for the Saints at this point.

It seems that the franchise tag, which would carry a projected value of about $10.5MM, is definitely out of the question since the Saints would need to carry that entire amount on their cap in 2021. So if the Saints can’t bring back Williams, where might he end up?

The Raiders are one obvious potential landing spot. Las Vegas recently hired Gus Bradley as its new DC, and Bradley was one of the architects of the Seahawks’ Legion of Boom secondary that saw Earl Thomas playing centerfield against opposing offenses. The Raiders’ offense is in pretty good shape, and after a series of straightforward cuts, they will have enough cap space to sign a quality free agent or two. Williams would team with Johnathan Abram to form a young and talented safety tandem.

The Lions and Jaguars were the two worst teams in the league in 2020 in terms of total defense, and while both clubs are very much in the rebuilding phase, Williams is young enough that he could still be a part of the next competitive outfits in Detroit or Jacksonville. Those teams have plenty of areas of need, but a strong back-end defender is a worthwhile target for any defense.

One way or another, Williams is about to get paid. He might not be the most talked-about FA at this point, but assuming the Saints don’t hit him with the franchise tag, he will be one of the first players off the board when free agency officially opens next month.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Bears WR Allen Robinson

December 1st, 2020 at 11:02am CST by Zachary Links

It’s safe to say that Allen Robinson isn’t a happy camper. Over the weekend, the Bears wide receiver liked a series of tweets from fans who encouraged him to skip town (Twitter link via Dov Kleiman). He’ll have the opportunity to leave Chicago in the spring when his contract expires, but it’s not a given that the market will meet his expectations.

Earlier this year, we heard that Robinson saw himself as the top wide receiver in this year’s free agent class. That would mean a deal of at least $20MM per year, putting him in the neighborhood of Michael Thomas and Julio Jones who have much stronger resumes. Thomas’ camp would probably point to Keenan Allen and Amari Cooper — receivers who did not have the same credentials as Thomas or Jones, but still topped $20MM/year.

The Bears weren’t willing to go there when the two sides last spoke, but they also kept Robinson past the early November trade deadline. Since then, they’ve watched their playoff hopes dwindle. The Bears, riding a five-game losing streak, may wind up losing their star receiver for nothing but a compensatory pick.

The Bears’ quarterback situation hasn’t provided Robinson with the ideal platform, but he’s still been fairly productive from an individual standpoint. Last year, Robinson managed a solid 98 grabs for 1,147 yards — his best showing since his 2015 coming out party with the Jaguars. Through eleven games this year, he has a stat line of 71/829/5, bolstered by his latest outing against the Packers. Robinson’s 11.7 yards per catch average over the last two years doesn’t exactly jump off the page, but it’s evident that the talent is there, and Robinson has been largely healthy over that stretch.

But, even with the most favorable view possible, Robinson probably won’t be the kingpin of this WR class. Chris Godwin and Kenny Golladay are also on track to hit the open market — ditto for JuJu Smith-Schuster, who could probably be had for less than Robinson.

Given the strength of the WR class and uncertainty of the 2021 salary cap, it might behoove Robinson to smooth things out with the Bears. Or, at minimum, pretend to smooth out with the Bears, in order to fetch the best possible deal. If Robinson can keep the incumbent Bears involved, he could land somewhere near the $18MM/year mark like Tyreek Hill and Odell Beckham Jr. If he can’t, he might be looking at ~$16MM/year offers, similar to Cooper Kupp‘s recent Rams extension.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Eric Reid

May 4th, 2020 at 1:15pm CST by Zachary Links

It’s the first week of May and several notable NFL names are still floating in free agency. That list includes edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney, quarterback and one-time MVP Cam Newton, the once unstoppable Devonta Freeman, and a well-accomplished safety on the right side of 30 in Eric Reid.

It’s familiar territory for the 28-year-old, who waited all the way until September to find his home for 2018. In that offseason, Reid was coming off of yet another solid campaign as a starter for the 49ers. He was also viewed as controversial by some, thanks to his friendship and partnerships with Colin Kaepernick. Teams say otherwise, but the national anthem protests surely hampered Reid’s market. But, in the interest of equal time, it’s worth noting that other standout safeties – guys like Tre Boston, Tyvon Branch, Ron Parker, and Kenny Vaccaro – were also left waiting by the phone that year.

This time around, Reid still offers plenty of upside, though his platform year wasn’t as strong. His new career-high of 130 tackles – including four sacks – seems solid, but a deeper glance shows a few cracks. Pro Football Focus, for example, wasn’t fond of his work, which saw more than 77% of throws completed in his vicinity. After the season, the Panthers released Reid from the remaining year on his contract.

What’s next for Reid? There are several teams that make sense, but also far fewer clubs that are in desperate need of safety help post-draft. His younger brother, Justin Reid, is making a strong case for him to join up with the Texans. After releasing Tashaun Gipson last week, Reid would profile as a major upgrade to an underperforming secondary. The Cowboys, Raiders, and other contenders should also take a good look at him, especially since he can probably be had on a low-cost one-year deal. With that, and a strong season, Reid could be in position to cash in as a free agent next year – hopefully, in March this time.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Arik Armstead

March 8th, 2020 at 1:59pm CST by Marc Delucchi

While teams will surely apply the franchise tag to a number of the best pass rushers on the market, one has seemed to receive much less buzz than warranted. 49ers defensive lineman Arik Armstead failed to live up to his first-round selection early in his career but has quietly become a difference-maker along the San Francisco front four.

In free agency rankings and previews Jadeveon Clowney, Shaquil Barrett, and Yannick Ngakoue have all consistently ranked ahead of the 17th overall selection in the 2015 Draft. However, there is a pretty compelling argument that Armstead is the best player of the bunch.

Few experts would argue that Armstead wasn’t the most productive of the group last season. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Armstead was the 6th highest graded edge defender last season of the 107 qualified players. Clowney ranked 20th, Barrett ranked 25th, and Ngakoue ranked 36th. Barrett accrued a league-leading 19.5 sacks (Armstead recorded 10, Ngakoue had 8, and Clowney just 3), but recorded fewer hurries than Armstead, which tend to be more predictive of future sack production.

It seems that most experts view Armstead as a one-hit-wonder, only producing in his contract year, but the evidence is a bit more complicated. With the exception of the 2016 season (when he missed 8 games with injury), Armstead has always graded out by PFF as a solid defensive lineman (receiving grades of 79.0, 70.1, and 74.8 in 2015, 2017, and 2018) who was particularly effective against the run. There’s no denying that Armstead reached another level of productivity in 2019, but it appears a bit disingenuous to say it came entirely out of nowhere.

Most impressive of all, even as Armstead built his reputation on run-stopping ability, he has generated hurries at the greatest rate of the group, not in 2019, but over his entire career. Armstead has generated a hurry on over 9.2% of his pass-rush snaps over his career, according to PFF, none of the other three have surpassed 7.8%.

Of course, the 49ers have been especially baron along the defensive line (aside from DeForest Buckner) for most of Armstead’s career. Obviously the additions of Nick Bosa and Dee Ford this offseason turned one of the team’s previous weaknesses into its greatest strength. But, some evaluators attribute Armstead’s jump to the improvement in his teammates more than a true change in him as a player.

Injuries, which were problems for Armstead in his second and third NFL seasons, have been a nonfactor over the previous two seasons and especially this season-when he played on 912 snaps between the regular season and playoffs as a part of the 49ers NFC Championship run.

At just 26 years of age, Armstead, an Oregon alum, appears poised to enter his prime of productivity, but will the market view him that way? Or will teams remain skeptical that his elite production in 2019 is sustainable without an elite supporting cast alongside him?

The top of the market for a player like Armstead would likely approach Frank Clark‘s 5-year, $104MM contract with the Chiefs last offseason, on the flipside, Armstead’s floor is probably around his teammate Dee Ford‘s 4-year, $85MM deal. Reports have suggested the 49ers want to resign Armstead, but limited on cap space following their Super Bowl loss to Kansas City, the team will have to shuffle some money around to make a new deal feasible (ironically, a new deal for Armstead could result in the release or trade of Ford).

If they are unable to resign him, San Francisco, already short of draft capital, could very likely recoup a strong return for Armstead via a tag-and-trade move, but the team would need to clear the necessary cap space to apply the franchise tag before they made any move.

Since most focus remains on Clowney, Ngakoue, and Barrett, few rumors have tied Armstead to any other teams, but don’t be surprised if teams seem to evaluate Armstead at the same level (or maybe even above) some of the other options.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Dak Prescott

January 28th, 2020 at 9:29am CST by Zachary Links

With all the talk surrounding Tom Brady‘s impending free agency, it’s almost like you could forget about Dak Prescott‘s scheduled trip to the open market. Almost.

At the start of the season, it seemed like Prescott was right on the cusp of a brand new multi-year deal with the Cowboys. Back in September, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said a new deal was “imminent.” Then, Jones & Co. spent the rest of the year deflecting questions about a potential extension. Now, the pressure is on for the Cowboys to hammer out a mega-deal that will keep Prescott under center for the foreseeable future.

Both sides have ample reason to get something done, but the Cowboys, understandably, have reservations about tying up a ludicrously high percentage of their available dollars in a handful of players. Back in September, the Cowboys offered up a contract that would have paid Prescott an average of $33MM/year. However, Prescott held off during his insanely hot start, and he was probably eyeing Russell Wilson‘s league-leading $35MM/year average.

The Cowboys’ second-half dip cost them a playoff berth and hurt Prescott’s leverage. Through the first seven games of the year, Prescott completed more than 70% of his passes with 12 TDs and seven INTs. On the back nine, Prescott completed just 61.5% of his throws with 18 touchdowns against four interceptions.

Still, there was plenty of blame to go around for the Cowboys’ drop, and much of it fell on Jason Garrett. Prescott, who won’t turn 27 until July, figures to cash in, one way or another. If the Cowboys can’t come to an agreement with Prescott on a long-term deal, they can keep him from free agency via the franchise tag, which is projected to come in at roughly $26.9MM for quarterbacks. The former fourth-round pick would surely prefer the security of a four-year contract, but that’s still a substantial pay bump from the $2.025MM base salary he earned in the final year of his rookie deal.

What will it take for the Cowboys to get a deal done with Prescott? After he finished second in passing yards (4,902) and fourth in passing touchdowns (30, a new career-high), it won’t be cheap. By betting on himself, Prescott has all but assured that he can top Jared Goff‘s four-year, $134MM deal, which averages out to $33.5MM/year. Meanwhile, his camp surely has Goff’s $110MM in guarantees – an NFL record – in the crosshairs.

The stats and comps are only part of the equation as the prospect of multiple franchise tags looms large. Sure, the Cowboys can cuff Prescott for 2020 at ~$27MM, but what about 2021, when the cost would rise another 20% to more than $39MM? (Assuming the franchise tag rules remain in tact after the new CBA.) After that, a third tag would be downright absurd – a 44% jump would cost upwards of $55MM for the 2022 season.

We’ve been fooled before, but all signs still point to a long-term accord between the QB and JJ. If the Cowboys are unwilling to top Wilson’s AAV, it’s possible that the two sides can meet in the middle on a three-year deal, which would allow Prescott to cash in at untold levels when he’s 30 years of age and the league’s revenue climbs even higher. Or, maybe they’ll cave and give Prescott just enough to edge Wilson on a four-year deal and claim victory. In any case, the Cowboys do not want to wait for Patrick Mahomes to land his next deal, which could top $40MM per annum. And, failing all of that, a tag is surely coming.

Prescott, technically speaking, is due for free agency in March, but we’d be shocked if he gets there.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Trey Flowers

November 30th, 2018 at 12:13pm CST by Zachary Links

Sack artists tend be among the highest earners in free agency, but in 2019 we’ll find out whether the same applies to a defensive end who has generated a ton of pressure against opposing QBs without a ton of sack dances. We’re talking about Patriots standout Trey Flowers, who will look to cash in among a star-studded class of edge rushers.

This spring, teams will be champing at the bit for free agents like Frank Clark (10 sacks), Dee Ford (9 sacks), DeMarcus Lawrence (9.5 sacks), Jadeveon Clowney (7 sacks). Flowers, meanwhile, has just 3.5 sacks through ten games this season, meaning that he’s on pace for less takedowns than his seven sacks in 2016 and his 6.5 sacks last year.

Of course, sacks don’t tell the whole story when it comes to evaluating edge rushers. Flowers has been terrorizing opposing QBs all season long and Jets signal caller Josh McCown can attest to that after he was hit four times by the Arkansas product last week. Heading into the meat of Week 13, Flowers ranks as Pro Football Focus’ No. 2 ranked edge defender, behind only Texans superstar J.J. Watt. That’s not too shabby for a player who won’t turn 26 until August.

Watt, by the way, is under contract through 2021 thanks to the six-year, $100MM contract extension he inked in 2014. Given the widespread need for high-level pass rushers, the increase of the salary cap, and the advancement of the market for DEs, it’s possible that Flowers can flirt with or best Watt’s $16.67MM average annual value.

The Patriots typically don’t shell out big bucks for defensive linemen, but they may want to make an exception here. The Patriots’ group of defensive ends beyond Flowers is far from star-studded and they should have the cap room to make his salary fit. A long-term extension with Flowers would cost no less than $13MM annually, so if they’re unwilling to commit, they can franchise tag Flowers for about $17.1MM.

If Flowers hits the open market, what kind of contract will he command? Which teams do you think will be in the mix for him? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section.

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