Free Agent Stock Watch News & Rumors

Free Agent Stock Watch: Sam Darnold

October 5th, 2024 at 8:15pm CST by Adam La Rose

The Vikings are the NFC’s only remaining undefeated team, and their play on offense has been a key factor in that early-season success. Specifically, the performance of quarterback Sam Darnold has raised eyebrows given how he was expected to perform in 2024.

Selected third overall in 2018 – after the Jets traded up from the No. 6 slot – Darnold faced the task of becoming a franchise passer. That has proven to be the case for Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson (selected later in the first round that year), but he was unable to develop into a long-term answer under center in New York. The USC product was immediately used in a first-team role but compiled a 13-25 record while completing less than 60% of his passes in the process.

The Jets elected to reset at quarterback in 2021, the year they selected Zach Wilson to start what turned out to be another unsuccessful run at finding a solution at the QB spot. Darnold was dealt to the Panthers for a package of three draft picks, including a second-rounder the following year. That agreement showed he still had some value, albeit far less than what New York originally invested in him. Darnold’s first Panthers season resulted in another losing record along with a 9:13 touchdown-to-interception ratio, however.

Baker Mayfield was added during the subsequent offseason, and 2018’s top selection handled starting duties to begin the 2022 campaign. One week before Mayfield’s release request was granted, though, Darnold took back over as the Panthers’ starter. Carolina won four of six games down the stretch with the latter posting a triple-digit passer rating four times. The team was committed to a more permanent solution than Darnold, a pending free agent, though. Carolina therefore embarked on the blockbuster deal which yielded the No. 1 pick (Bryce Young), something which – to put it mildly – has not gone according to plan so far.

Darnold took a one-year deal in 2023 to serve as the 49ers’ backup. Brock Purdy remained healthy throughout the season, though, so Darnold’s only start game in a meaningless Week 18 contest. His San Francisco tenure did not include eye-popping statistics, but it was sufficient to draw interest from the Broncos and Commanders before a Vikings pact was worked out. The one-year agreement carried a $10MM value, second only to Gardner Minshew in terms of pacts for signal-callers taking backup/bridge starter pacts.

First-round rookie J.J. McCarthy entered training camp behind Darnold on the depth chart, putting the latter on track to handle first-team duties early in the 2024 season. McCarthy’s meniscus tear shut him down for the campaign, however, leaving Darnold in place to guide an offense no longer led by Kirk Cousins. Through one month, things have gone very well without Pro Bowl tight end T.J. Hockenson even being in the picture.

Darnold leads the league in touchdown passes (11), yards per attempt (9.6) and passer rating (118.9) early in the campaign. Those figures – along with a career-high 68.9 completion percentage – helped him earn the NFC’s Offensive Player of the Month award for September. If that run of form can continue, a healthy free agent spell will be in store next offseason.

Multiple front office personnel predicted to Outkick’s Armando Salguero the Vikings will make a push to retain Darnold in 2025 despite McCarthy being attached to his rookie contract for the foreseeable future. Minnesota’s offense continuing to thrive would assist Darnold’s bargaining power considerably (not to mention help head coach Kevin O’Connell’s chances of landing an extension alongside general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah). A strong showing could prove Darnold to be the league’s next Mayfield – that is, a passer turning a one-year gig into a multi-year commitment from his team. Mayfield seemed to be on track for free agency before he agreed to a three-year, $100MM Buccaneers pact (including $40MM guaranteed) this past March.

Given his age, Darnold could command a similar deal provided his encouraging performance holds up over the coming months. McCarthy’s presence would complicate considerations on the Vikings’ part with respect to a deal covering 2025 and (quite possibly) multiple years after that for Darnold, but as always a number of teams will be in the market for a veteran passer in free agency. Any which do not figure to have a high first-round draft pick could make a notable push on a multi-year offer.

The executives Salguero spoke with agreed an asking price from Darnold’s camp breaching the $50MM-per-year mark (as nine recent QB deals have) would be untenable. An AAV closer to the high $30MM- or low $40MM-point may be on the table, though, depending on structure and guarantees of course. Especially if Justin Fields lands a new Steelers agreement – something which certainly seems feasible at this point – Darnold would loom as the clear top free agent option amongst veteran passers for Minnesota or any number of other teams.

A regression over the coming games would not leave Darnold in danger of losing his starting spot but it would obviously hinder his market value. As things currently stand, however, he is on track to benefit greatly from his mid-career turnaround.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Geno Smith

January 14th, 2023 at 9:00pm CST by Adam La Rose

With the Seahawks’ season now over, attention will turn away from the team’s surprising trip to the playoffs and towards an offseason filled with questions at the quarterback position. Geno Smith played his way into a significant raise in 2023, but whether he will remain in Seattle will be a key storyline.

Smith, 32, flamed out as the Jets’ starter after two seasons in New York. That span was followed by six straight campaigns spent as a backup, the role he was expected to remain in for the duration of his NFL career. His play while briefly filling in for Russell Wilson in 2021 made it unsurprising that he was brought back on a one-year deal this past offseason, but the base value of that contract ($3.5MM) made the team’s intentions clear.

It was former Bronco Drew Lock – part of the package Denver sent Seattle in the blockbuster Wilson trade – who was expected to earn the No. 1 spot over the course of the summer. Instead, Smith won out the training camp competition, and quickly rewarded the Seahawks for putting their trust in him. By Week 6, it was reported that a full-time commitment to the West Virginia alum could be in the cards.

Smith generally continued his impressive play throughout the season, one in which the Seahawks were able to clinch the NFC’s final playoff spot during Week 18 despite expectations being tempered considerably in the wake of Wilson’s (and All-Pro linebacker Bobby Wagner’s) absence. Smith led the league in completion percentage (69.8%), throwing for a franchise-record 4,282 yards along the way. His performance earned him a Pro Bowl nod and allowed him to double his earnings through incentives. That $7MM price tag will surely be comfortably exceeded in free agency – something the veteran is acutely aware of.

“Football is a business,” Smith said prior to today’s 41-23 loss to the 49ers, via ESPN’s Brady Henderson. “A lot of people have a lot of decisions to make, and that’s where I’ll leave it at. I feel great about where I stand with this organization and my teammates and everybody else, but it’s always a business first. So I look at it like that. I understand that, and I’ve got to handle my business as well.”

The Seahawks currently rank in the top-five in the league in terms of 2023 cap space after transitioning to a younger core at most positions. That has them well-positioned to absorb a new deal for Smith carrying a significant raise, but it could also pave the way for a contract keeping Lock in the Emerald City for the short- or medium-term future. Head coach Pete Carroll routinely praised the 26-year-old upon his arrival, despite his underwhelming tenure with the Broncos. Lock is also a pending UFA, though his market will be clouded by having sat as Smith’s backup all season.

In any event, the Seahawks have reportedly been convinced by Smith’s performance to commit to him on a new contract. An alternative, especially in light of his unique rise back to a starter’s role after years as a No. 2, could be a franchise or transition tag, which Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network confirms is a real possibility (video link). Where Smith’s next deal comes from – and what form it takes – will certainly be worth watching over the coming weeks.

For what it’s worth, Smith himself said after the ‘Hawks wildcard round loss to the 49ers that he wants to finish his career in Seattle and that he expects to be back with the team in 2023 (via Henderson).

Free Agent Stock Watch: Daniel Jones

December 29th, 2022 at 5:05pm CST by Sam Robinson

Bounce-back seasons from Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones represent the main on-field reason the Giants are close to becoming one of the more surprising playoff teams in recent memory. Injury issues have dogged the would-be rebuilding squad throughout, but the play of their now-two-time Pro Bowl running back and fourth-year quarterback has them at 8-6-1. The Giants hold a 92% chance, per FiveThirtyEight, of making the playoffs for the first time since 2016.

The subject of Barkley and Jones’ future looms, however. Both Giants offensive cornerstones are on track for free agency. This situation reminds of the Titans’ quandary in 2020, when they had both Derrick Henry and the resurgent Ryan Tannehill as UFAs-to-be. Tennessee franchise-tagged its All-Pro running back and re-signed its resurgent starting QB. Will the Giants try to play this the same way?

On the Barkley front, that would be the simplest solution. Next year’s running back tag is projected to come in at $10.1MM — a steep drop from the projected nonexclusive QB tag of $32.5MM. A $10.1MM tag, as a bridge to a top-market extension, would not clog New York’s cap. After needing to jettison veterans this year for cap purposes, with Barkley trade talks even emerging, the Giants are projected to hold nearly $60MM in cap space. That number sits in the top three for 2023.

The Giants already turned down Jones’ fifth-year option. This was before he showed considerable progress in Brian Daboll‘s offense, but still. A team that passed on a $22MM Jones option salary circling back to tag him for $10MM more would represent a strange path — and one that would hamstring Big Blue come free agency. But the Giants’ Jones situation, especially with the team on the brink of a wild-card spot, will be a key 2023 subplot.

The 2011 CBA introduced the fifth-year option for first-rounders, and the first batch of decisions arrived in 2014. From then until 2022, no team has passed on a quarterback’s fifth-year option and later re-signed him. Christian Ponder, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, Brandon Weeden, Robert Griffin III, EJ Manuel, Teddy Bridgewater, Johnny Manziel, Paxton Lynch, Mitch Trubisky, Dwayne Haskins and Josh Rosen either played out their four-year rookie deals or were moved off the roster before those contracts expired. Jones’ efficient fourth season could break some new NFL ground, but the sides will need to come together on an atypical deal — one that may land in currently uninhabited QB salary territory.

Tannehill re-signed with the Titans on a four-year, $118.5MM deal just before the 2020 league year began. The former top-10 Dolphins draftee was coming off a stunning season in his first Titans campaign, piloting the Titans to the AFC championship game. Jones has rocketed from 22nd in QBR last season to 11th this year, but the Giants’ pass-catching cadre has capped his rise to a degree. Jones has 13 touchdown passes in 15 games. Despite a ransacked receiving arsenal, the former No. 6 overall pick has limited his turnovers. Jones’ 1.1 interception rate is the league’s best mark. He is completing 66.5% of his passes, albeit at just 6.8 yards per attempt, and has already established a new career rushing high (617 yards). This still would qualify as more workmanlike season than true breakthrough, but the Giants equipping Jones with better pass catchers could unlock another level for the oft-doubted Duke product.

Jones’ history, present production and ties to the Dave Gettleman regime complicate a potential Joe Schoen-led negotiation. The rookie GM said the Giants discussed a deal with Barkley but not Jones during their bye week, indicating a clear priority hierarchy. That would make sense, given the first-rounders’ accomplishments. Only one quarterback (Tom Brady, an outlier in just about every way) is tied to an average salary between $14MM and $29.5MM. That is a pretty wide range to explore.

Last week’s YouTube TV Sunday Ticket agreement should soon provide cap clarity, but teams are operating as if the cap will come in between $222MM and $225MM. That estimate is nearly $30MM north of where the cap was when Tannehill inked his deal, and Jones guiding this Giants team to the postseason could prompt him — his struggles from 2019-21 notwithstanding — to ask for a contract worth more than $30MM per year. Four passers (Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan) are tied to deals averaging between $30-$35MM per year; those deals sit 10th-13th on the quarterback salary spectrum. Such an ask would test the Giants.

If the Giants let Jones reach free agency, they will not be in a good position to draft his replacement. They are set to pick outside the top 10 for the first time since 2017. The past three offseasons have brought tremendous QB movement, opening new doors for teams seeking upgrades. The free agent market is tentatively slated to include Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo, Geno Smith, Jacoby Brissett and Mike White. Brady has not committed to 2023 and would not seem to line up with the Giants’ timeline, while the Seahawks want to keep Smith. UFA-to-be Lamar Jackson will not hit the market.

Tannehill and Derek Carr seem the two likeliest trade candidates of note; the Raiders look to have ignited the Carr market by benching him Wednesday. Both players have proven far more than Jones, but each is much older. The Titans passer will be 35 next season; the now-separated Raiders QB will be 32. Jones will turn 26 in 2023. Carr has obviously proven much more than Jones, and it will be interesting to see if the Giants are connected to him. But Jones has outplayed Carr (league-high 14 INTs) this season and almost certainly will not require a $40MM-per-year contract. How much will it ultimately take to keep him off the market?

The Giants eschewing the trade or free agency routes and focusing on Jones could produce another prove-it season — likely with better receivers — on a one-year deal. The team could also go through with a medium-term agreement, with CBS Sports’ Joel Corry comparing this situation to the Jaguars’ Blake Bortles talks in 2018. The Jags gave their shaky starter a three-year, $54MM deal that included $26.5MM fully guaranteed. With that contract occurring under a $177.2MM salary cap, a similar Jones arrangement would undoubtedly check in with a much higher value — likely north of $25MM AAV.

If the price escalates much further, the Giants might be inclined to examine other options. The Bortles re-signing did not age well, and Jacksonville took on dead money by cutting him a year later. That mid-tier investment shows the risks of betting on an inconsistent quarterback, but the Giants going in the other direction could disrupt the Daboll-, Jones- and Barkley-geared ascent this year’s team has made.

Whether the Giants’ new regime pays Jones or tries to acquire an upgrade, the team’s 2022 improvement and the Jones-Barkley free agency challenge will give Big Blue a much higher profile entering the 2023 offseason compared to where the franchise resided over the past several years.

Free Agent Stock Watch: David Montgomery

December 18th, 2022 at 6:49pm CST by Ely Allen

Bears running back David Montgomery will soon experience the challenges of a free agent running back in today’s NFL. A third-round draft pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, Montgomery is currently in a contract year for a team that may not have reason to commit to him long-term. The final few games of the season could determine how the next stage of Montgomery’s career plays out.

Montgomery entered this season as the Bears’ No. 1 running back with backup Khalil Herbert providing the team with a strong secondary option. Montgomery had produced two strong seasons to kick off his career. As a rookie starting eight games, Montgomery racked up 889 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns, adding 185 yards and a touchdown through the air as a receiving back. In his sophomore season, Montgomery showed a ton of promise, rushing for 1,070 yards and eight touchdowns and catching 54 passes for 438 yards and two touchdowns.

Last year, Chicago drafted Herbert in the sixth-round to supplement their rushing attack. Montgomery’s production slipped a bit as Herbert shared some of the offense, but he still produced 849 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns and showed he was the top receiving back with 301 yards on 42 catches. Herbert got his opportunities, though, and contributed 433 rushing yards and two touchdowns as a rookie.

This year the story has changed a little bit. Despite the fact that, coming into today’s game, Montgomery had started all but one game and appeared in two more games than Herbert, who had missed the team’s last three games with a hip injury, Montgomery trailed Herbert by two rushing yards. Montgomery plays about 67% of the Bears’ offensive snaps on average, while Herbert averages around 37%. Still, until today’s loss against the Eagles, the backup running back, Herbert, was outgaining the starting running back, Montgomery, with an average rushing yards per game of 64.3 to 53.4. Montgomery has maintained his role as the team’s top receiving back this season.

After sitting out of his fourth straight game today, Herbert is set to return next week to help Chicago in its last three games of the regular season. Montgomery will have a bit of an added challenge in the final few games of the season to show his worth to the Bears offense with his more-productive teammate back in the lineup. At 3-11, already eliminated from postseason contention, Montgomery will only have the final three games of the regular season to make his case.

If Montgomery hits free agency, he will join a stacked free agent class of running backs. After his fifth-year option was declined, Raiders running back Josh Jacobs will be a free agent this offseason. Barring any new extensions before the end of the season, Giants running back Saquon Barkley, Eagles running back Miles Sanders, and Cowboys running back Tony Pollard will all join Montgomery and Jacobs on the free agent market. Additionally, key contributors in Browns running back Kareem Hunt, Lions running back Jamaal Williams, Bills running back Devin Singletary, and Patriots running back Damien Harris will all hit free agency, as well. Even a score of reliable backups will be available in Minnesota’s Alexander Mattison, Cincinnati’s Samaje Perine, New York’s James Robinson, Miami’s Raheem Mostert, and Carolina’s D’Onta Foreman.

Needless to say, Montgomery will have a ton of competition in the free agent market. Regardless of the competition, what would a deal with Montgomery look like? Realistically, these days, for a running back that isn’t a super star, a three-year deal is standard. Star backs are set to earn around $14MM to $16MM per year, perhaps more if a suitor wants to set the market high for a free agent target. Strong starters will earn around $10MM to $13MM and second-tier backs will be in the range of about $6MM to $8MM.

Statistically compared to recent contracts, Montgomery matches up closest with a player like Buccaneers running back Leonard Fournette. Fournette recently signed a three-year, $21MM deal after a contract year that could look vaguely similar to what Montgomery is projected to do this year. There are two factors in Montgomery’s favor, though. Montgomery doesn’t have the significant injury history that Fournette does, and Montgomery has been far more consistent with his production year in, year out. This could point to either a three-year deal with a slightly larger average annual value or a similar annual amount with another year tacked on. If Montgomery were in a vacuum, he would likely demand something like a three-year, $24MM contract or a four-year, $28MM deal.

Unfortunately for Montgomery, he is not in a vacuum. With the excessive amount of competition he will face in the free agent market, Montgomery’s value may be diluted. It will be hard to convince a team to shell out big money for Montgomery if they can just sign a lesser deal to one of many options. This may lead Montgomery to seek a team-friendly deal in order to stay in Chicago. With the existing connection and chemistry, Montgomery may be able to get more value out of his current team than he would testing the markets.

Taking all of this into account, Montgomery still will likely earn a three-year contract, possibly even four- with his superior durability. In a diluted market or in a team friendly deal, I could see Montgomery signing with an average annual value of $6MM or $7MM. It would make sense to see Montgomery end up with a three-year, $19.5MM or four-year, $24MM deal this offseason. Whether he wants to stand pat in Chicago or test the free agent waters, Montgomery will have three more games to show what he’s worth.

Free Agent Stock Watch: WR Will Fuller

July 4th, 2022 at 7:04pm CST by Adam La Rose

Will Fuller has had an up-and-down NFL career to date, and it may now stand at something of a crossroads. He currently finds himself among an interesting crop of free agent receivers seeking new deals well after teams have done the bulk of their roster retooling.

After two straight hugely productive seasons to finish his college career at Notre Dame, in which he totalled over 2,300 yards and 29 touchdowns, Fuller was one of the top receiver prospects in the 2016 draft class. He was the second wideout to hear his name called, going 21st overall to the Texans. That set him up in a favorable situation to begin his pro career.

Landing in Houston allowed Fuller to serve as an effective compliment to DeAndre Hopkins, given his vertical speed and field-stretching ability. He was an integral part of the team’s passing offense during his rookie season, as he saw a career-high 92 targets. Unfortunately, that year was also the one in which he saw the most time on the field, appearing in 14 contests.

Injuries have been a constant in the 28-year-old’s NFL tenure, unlike those final two years in college which made him so highly regarded. During his five seasons in Houston, he missed 27 total games, mostly due to injury. Part of that total also came from a six-game PED suspension, which was handed down late in the 2020 season. Despite the missed time, Fuller still put up career-best totals that year in receptions (53), yards (879) and touchdowns (eight).

That made him one of the top available free agents last offseason, as he hit the open market for the first time in his career. He signed with the Dolphins, a team which also added Jaylen Waddle in the draft as part of their WR overhaul. The deal carried a value of over $10MM, but was only one year in length and included incentives, as the team clearly had concerns about his availability.

Those proved to be well-founded; after missing the first week of the season due to the suspension, Fuller was also absent for Week 2 as a result of a non-injury-related matter. In October, he then suffered a broken finger, adding further to the list of ailments which have proved increasingly cumbersome to his career. The injury wasn’t expected to end his season, but it ultimately did limit him to just two games played. After recording four scoreless receptions, it comes as little surprise that Fuller is still a free agent this late into free agency.

As shown by his 16.6 yards per catch average in 2020, though, he has the ability to make a significant impact as a complimentary receiver when healthy. That qualifies him as one of the best remaining wideouts on the market, as the likes of Julio Jones and Odell Beckham Jr. have significant injury concerns of their own. A number of teams looking for veteran pass-catchers could stand to add him.

One such team is the Ravens, who were recently named as a logical destination for Fuller. The team traded away Marquise Brown during the draft, so they could use him as a replacement for Brown’s speed. Baltimore currently ranks second-last in the league in cap space, however, so any deal would need to be a short-term, low-cost one like that given to Sammy Watkins last year.

Other potential landing spots include the Colts (who have yet to re-sign T.Y. Hilton, or a similar compliment to Michael Pittman Jr.) and Packers (who considered trading for Fuller in 2020 and lost their top two WRs this offseason). Wherever he signs, Fuller could prove to be an effective addition given the right team fit and a bit of injury-related luck.

Free Agent Stock Watch: WR Willie Snead

June 18th, 2022 at 8:48pm CST by Adam La Rose

A look at Willie Snead‘s early statlines in the NFL suggest that he would have put together a lengthy career as at least a high-end No. 2 receiver by this point of his tenure. That hasn’t taken place, and his 2022 season has left him on the open market deep into the offseason.

The former UDFA found a home with the Saints in 2015. In his first two years with New Orleans, he put up significant numbers: 141 catches, 1,879 yards and seven touchdowns. Those campaigns also saw him record two of his three highest yards-per-catch averages, as he demonstrated his ability to move the chains on a consistent basis. Things have taken a significant turn since then, however.

After an eight-catch season in 2017, the Ball State product was on the move in free agency. He joined the Ravens via an offer sheet, as one of three veteran additions the team made to its receiving corps. Snead joined Michael Crabtree and John Brown in Baltimore, who had Joe Flacco as the starting quarterback at the time. By the midway point of that season, though, Lamar Jackson had taken over, beginning the team’s transition to the run-heavy offense which remains in place to this day.

Snead still received 95 targets that year, totalling 62 receptions and 651 yards. It earned him a one-year extension in 2019, but he has yet to produce at that level in the proceeding years. Competing for looks in Baltimore’s low-target offense with the likes of Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews, Snead recorded 64 catches and 771 yards between 2019 and 2020. To no surprise, he was on the move again last spring.

The five-foot-11, 200-pounder signed with the Raiders, a decision which further reduced his offensive role. In Las Vegas – a passing attack centered around Darren Waller and, in 2021 in particular, Hunter Renfrow – he played just 38 offensive snaps. Seeking a new destination and a larger workload, Snead asked for, and was granted, his release in October. He finished the year in Carolina, one of his brief NFL homes before those highly-productive years in New Orleans.

In a recent interview with Tyler Dunne of GoLong.com, Snead, 29, made his case for a free agent deal, making sure to stress his need for an effective team fit. “I feel like I’ve been in every type of offense this league can throw at me,” he said. “And I’ve mastered all of it. Going into another year… I’ve got four or five years left in me. I want my next place to be the right place so I’m not getting lost again.”

Snead offers a different skillset to some of the other wideouts still on the market, such as Julio Jones and Will Fuller. A reunion with Baltimore would make sense on paper, given the team’s lack of experience in its receiving corps, but the nature of his departure (along with remarks he made about the team’s passing scheme in the aforementioned interview) would surely rule that out. Indianapolis is another team which has been named as a potential landing spot for a veteran, though T.Y. Hilton represents the likeliest candidate for a deal with the Colts.

The Titans could be in need of a complimentary wideout, given the overhaul of their WR room this offseason. With Robert Woods coming off of a torn ACL, Tennessee could look to add a low-cost slot option to take attention away from first-rounder Treylon Burks. In any event, Snead, who added that he is “the furthest thing from retiring,” should find a new home in the coming weeks on a short-term deal to rebuild his value.

Free Agent Stock Watch: DT Larry Ogunjobi

June 4th, 2022 at 11:03pm CST by Ely Allen

We were very close to not having to write this Stock Watch. In mid-March, free agent defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi signed a deal to join new head coach Matt Eberflus and new general manager Ryan Poles in Chicago. A failed physical led the Bears to call off the agreement, returning Ogunjobi to free agency.

“As I said before, Larry Ogunjobi embodies everything we are looking for in a Bear,” Poles said in a statement. “He is a special person and player. During the league’s negotiating window earlier this week, we agreed to terms with him, subject to him passing a physical here. After a standard and thorough physical and medical review with Larry yesterday afternoon, our medical team deemed him to have failed his physical and, therefore, unfortunately, we are not signing him today. This is difficult and it is emotional for everyone involved, but ultimately is what is in the best interest of protecting the Chicago Bears.”

Ogunjobi’s second free agent deal was set to earn $40.5MM over three years. He would have been entitled to a guaranteed $26.35MM at signing. Compared to his one-year, $6.2MM deal with Cincinnati last year, Ogunjobi was set for a substantial raise. Now, the 28-year-old is back on the market, searching for his next home.

Ogunjobi was a third-round pick out of Charlotte in 2017, getting drafted by the Browns. As a rookie, Ogunjobi was a rotational player. He played in 14 games, earning one start. Ogunjobi recorded 32 tackles, 1.0 sack, and 4.0 tackles for loss as a rookie.

He was named a starter on the line in his sophomore season and held down the job for the rest of his rookie deal, only missing two regular season games over his three years as a Browns’ starter. His second and third seasons were nearly identical. In each year, he recorded 5.5 sacks and 10.0 tackles for loss. His stats dropped a little bit during his last year in Cleveland, but over his last three seasons with the Browns, he totaled 148 tackles, 13.5 sacks, and 25.0 tackles for loss.

Ogunjobi signed with the Bengals last offseason on the one-year deal mentioned above. Ogunjobi got back to his normal ways with his best season to date. He recorded 49 tackles, but added 7.0 sacks and 12.0 tackles for loss. Ogunjobi set himself up to be a premier, young pass-rushing defensive tackle.

Unfortunately, Ogunjobi was injured during the Bengals’ Wildcard victory over the Raiders. The foot injury would require surgery, ending Ogunjobi’s season with the Bengals. It was reported shortly after his contract with the Bears was cancelled that the failed physical stemmed from that injured foot. Poles offered that the failed deal would have prevented them from adding other free agents during the legal tampering period, as well, so the failed physical became a non-starter.

Regardless, the Bears set a clear market for the defensive tackle heading into his sixth NFL season. A three-year deal with an average annual value (AAV) of $13.5MM is a nod to the accomplishments of Ogunjobi’s young career, but maybe includes a knock for injury. The deal would have given him the tenth-highest AAV in the league. Besides outliers like three-time Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald, who is on a six-year deal, and expert run-stopper Brandon Williams, who just finished a five-year deal with the Ravens, most of the top defensive tackles in the league are signing three- to four-year deals.

Who lands Ogunjobi, then? Atlanta could certainly use a playmaker in the middle of the defensive line. Many thought they would make a move for UConn’s Travis Jones, who ended up going to Baltimore in the 2022 NFL Draft. Giving Falcons defensive coordinator Dean Pees Ogunjobi to pair with Grady Jarrett could do wonders for that defense. Similarly, the Saints would be more than happy to put Ogunjobi alongside David Onyemata. Shy Tuttle is currently set to start next to Onyemata, and Ogunjobi would be a big upgrade in production.

Ogunjobi visited the Jets in early May, but no deal was reached. You probably can’t rule out the Bears, though. Despite the unfortunate outcome, there was enough of a connection that the two reached a deal initially. The Bears did sign Justin Jones to fill their tackle role, but if Ogunjobi is able to pass a physical with the team, he would represent a substantial upgrade over Jones.

Whoever does decide to reach a deal with Ogunjobi, a similar contract to the Bears’ offer should be expected. Ogunjobi should expect a three- or four-year contract from $12MM-$15MM per year. The once-failed physical may take a chunk out of his guaranteed money, but Ogunjobi should still be looking forward to a big payday once he signs the dotted line.

Free Agent Stock Watch: OL Ereck Flowers

May 27th, 2022 at 10:07pm CST by Ely Allen

Since being drafted ninth overall by the Giants in 2015, offensive lineman Ereck Flowers has had an up-and-down career along the East Coast. The recent Commanders cap casualty is facing free agency for the fourth time in his career.

New York drafted the standout tackle out of Miami to take over as its new blindside tackle. The former Hurricane had prototypical size, length, and strength, but struggled with technique and coachability coming out of school early. Despite holding his job as the starting left tackle, Flowers only graded out as the 54th-best tackle in the NFL through his third year, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

After declining his fifth-year option, the Giants moved Flowers to the right side of the line to accommodate the addition of Nate Solder. They benched Flowers two games into his fourth year in favor of Chad Wheeler and, after failing to find a trade partner to offload Flowers, they released their former top-10 pick. Four days later, Flowers signed a one-year deal with the Jaguars, in response to Josh Wells getting placed on injured reserve. He started the remainder of the season protecting Blake Bortles‘ blindside.

As a free agent after his time in Jacksonville, Flowers landed a one-year deal with Washington. During camp, Washington moved the longtime tackle inside to left guard, where he would start and excel for the entire season. His renewed efforts at guard earned him a three-year, $30MM deal with the Dolphins following his stint in DC. After adding several linemen in the following offseason, Miami traded Flowers back to Washington the day before the draft in exchange for the two teams swapping seventh round picks. Flowers returned to his starting position at left guard and reportedly played well enough to warrant discussions of an extension, but, ultimately, the Commanders opted to release the seven-year veteran to clear an additional $10MM from their books.

It was expected that Flowers would find a new home relatively easily, considering that, despite his grades, Flowers has solidified himself as a starter at every stop of his career, finding a positional home in his last few years at left guard. Yet Flowers remains available, looking for the right fit for his new home. The top guard options have all found deals so far this year, from Andrew Norwell signing for $5MM annual average to Brandon Scherff signing a deal worth an average of $16.5MM per year.

Flowers would likely be looking at deals that align with the likes of other consistent starters like Rodger Saffold, Lucas Patrick, or Flowers’ former Hurricanes teammate Jon Feliciano. That is to say, he will likely end up signing a one- to two-year tryout deal for around $3.5-$6MM depending on how needy the franchise he ends up with is for an interior lineman. He’ll also have a little value added to his contract for the flexibility he provides as an option to play tackle, as well.

In terms of destinations, Feliciano’s former team, the Bills, doesn’t have a ton of depth on the interior behind Saffold and Ryan Bates. Their top backup is Cody Ford who was benched early last year. Dallas will have a competition for the left guard spot between rookie Tyler Smith and Connor McGovern, with Connor Williams signing with the Dolphins. McGovern struggled last year when moving from right guard to left and Smith played tackle at the collegiate level and may have difficulty transitioning inside. In Detroit, Halapoulivaati Vaitai‘s cap hit is becoming quite large and he is under contract through 2025. Flowers may provide a cheaper option at guard.

The team with the biggest need at left guard is likely Tennessee, which will aim to replace Saffold. Currently it’s looking like a battle between Aaron Brewer, who has six career starts in two years, and Jamarco Jones, who has seven career starts in three years in Seattle. The Titans also drafted Dillon Radunz, but they may want him competing for their open position at right tackle. Tennessee would be well-served to bring in Flowers as a proven starter at left guard over the options it currently has.

In the end, while maybe not living up to his potential as the ninth overall pick, Flowers has established himself as an effective starter in the NFL. His run of recent success was cut short due to the construction of his salary, but he likely won’t be down for long. Look for Flowers to sign a short deal for a couple million per year on a team that needs immediate help on the offensive line.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Chiefs OT Orlando Brown Jr.

February 27th, 2022 at 4:32pm CST by Ely Allen

In November, we wrote a Free Agent Stock Watch on Chiefs’ blindside tackle Orlando Brown Jr. Three months later and the situation is starting to clear up a bit. In case you don’t feel like reading the older piece, here’s a quick recap:

A unanimous All-American at Oklahoma, Brown was selected in the third round of the 2018 NFL Draft by the Ravens. Despite being considered a first-round pick for much of his last year in college, a poor performance at the NFL Combine plummeted the young tackle’s stock. Brown quickly made sure that the football world knew he was not going to be defined by his combine performance and became widely considered as one of the biggest steals of the draft.

Brown went to his first Pro Bowl in 2019, after his first full season as the Ravens’ starting right tackle. The next year, an injury to newly extended left tackle Ronnie Stanley pushed Brown to the left side of the offensive line for the last 10 games of the season. Brown made his second Pro Bowl that year after playing most of the year at left tackle.

At that point, Brown made it clear to the Ravens that he intended to be the best left tackle in the NFL. Brown’s determination to play on the left side of the line stemmed from his late father’s wish that he not settle for any other position in the NFL, so Brown requested a trade to an organization that would allow him to live that dream.

The Ravens honored Brown’s request and traded him to the Chiefs. It was initially thought that Kansas City would extend the young stalwart tackle and lock down their future at the position, but the Chiefs held off, allowing Brown to play out the final year of his rookie contract. Brown’s first year as a Chief ended with him becoming the only offensive tackle in the NFL to be in all of the last three Pro Bowls.

At this point, it’s not expected that Kansas City would let their blindside blocker walk away after only one year. Brown is a talented and, perhaps more importantly, young left tackle who not only dominated in the Ravens’ run-game-centered offense, where they passed the ball 44.96% of the time, but also dominated in the Chiefs’ pass-heavy offense, where they passed the ball 62.36% of the time.

Spotrac.com estimates a calculated market value for Brown at a five-year deal worth $116.58MM. That would give Brown the NFL’s highest average annual salary for an offensive tackle at $23.32MM per year, over the likes of Trent Williams ($23.01MM), David Bakhtiari ($23MM), Laremy Tunsil ($22MM), and former teammate Ronnie Stanley ($19.75MM).

In an article by Aaron Wilson of Pro Football Network, Chiefs’ general manager Brett Veach was quoted saying, “As far as Orlando, he was a guy that had a dream to play left tackle and had a small sample size of him playing left tackle at Baltimore. He’s another unique character, too, where when you talk about a culture and when you talk about a guy that does everything the right way, Orlando Brown is in the category.”

A conversation will likely need to be had with quarterback and former MVP Patrick Mahomes as his cap hit is expected to jump from $7.43MM in 2021 to $35.79MM in 2022. If the Chiefs are not able to figure out a long-term deal with Brown, they are likely to use their franchise tag to give both parties an extra year to come to an agreement. In the unlikely event that neither of those options play out, Brown will certainly become one of the top offseason priorities for any team interested in a franchise left tackle.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Chiefs S Tyrann Mathieu

November 29th, 2021 at 9:30pm CST by Ely Allen

He’s been here before and has seen his value fluctuate rather broadly over the course of his nine-year career. Tyrann Mathieu hopes he’ll cash in on the high end on this go round as he tries to steady a Kansas City defense that has struggled early in the season.

The former LSU Tiger was drafted in the third round by the Cardinals in 2013. He was solid through his first couple of pro seasons, but he truly broke out in his Year 3 with five interceptions and 17 passes defensed en route to first-team All-Pro honors. Despite the ACL tear that capped his 2015, the Cardinals rewarded the rangy safety with an eye-popping five-year, $62.5MM extension just before the start of ’16.

His first foray into free agency came in 2018, when he refused to take a pay cut. Three days later, the Texans took a flier on Mathieu with a one-year, $7MM deal. The next year, he moved on to the Chiefs, who furnished him with a three-year, $42MM contract. Rejuvenated in KC, he went on to capture a Super Bowl ring and nab ten interceptions over the next two years.

Now Mathieu sits in a contract year once again. He’s seen his value fluctuate from a rookie deal to $12.5MM per annum to $7MM all the way to to his current contract, valuing him at $14MM per year.

He’s had a good a year so far — two picks, one pick-six, five passes defensed, and a sack for good measure. Still, he’ll need a bigger second half in order to land the kind of deal that he wants. Fortunately, there’s still plenty of time to pad the highlight reel and ample opportunity as the Chiefs make their playoff push.

Mathieu is unlikely to top Jamal Adams ($17.5MM per year), but there’s reason to believe that he could approach Harrison Smith‘s deal ($16MM per year). After all, Smith inked his four-year re-up in his age 32 season. Mathieu, meanwhile, won’t turn 30 until May.

While Mathieu does have a bit of an injury history, he’s got plenty of gas left in the tank and an All-Pro skillset to offset any concerns. As long as he keeps his foot on the pedal, Mathieu should still be able to command top dollar for his services this spring.

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