Extension Candidate News & Rumors

Extension Candidate: Russell Okung

August 15th, 2015 at 6:48pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The Seahawks haven’t been shy about locking up their own players to long-term extensions — Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner each agreed to deals within the past month, but they’re just the most recent Seattle players whom the club has committed to. Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, Marshawn Lynch, Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril, K.J. Wright, and Doug Baldwin all reached extensions with the Seahawks (or in the case of Bennett, re-signed just days into free agency) within the past 18 months. But there’s still one key Hawk who is heading for free agency and hasn’t yet worked out a new contract — left tackle Russell Okung.

Okung, the first draft pick of the Pete Carroll/John Schneider regime, hasn’t exactly been the picture of health since entering the league out of Oklahoma State in 2010. The 27-year-old has only played in about 73% of Seattle’s games during the past five years, missing 21 out of a possible 80 contests. Just last season, Okung missed only two games, but he was plagued with injuries throughout the year, dealing with calf and chest ailments while also playing through a torn labrum.

Not only has Okung suffered through injuries, but when he has been able to take the field, his production hasn’t been great. Outside of the 2012 season, when he graded as the league’s eighth-best tackle and was named to the Pro Bowl, Okung has never even placed among the top 30 tackles in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus, including last season, when he ranked just 36th (subscription required). Last year, specifically, most of Okung’s negative grade was attributed to his subpar run blocking, as he actually graded out pretty well in terms of pass-blocking.

Indeed, if there is one thing that Okung does not do, it’s give up sacks. In three years with Wilson as the club’s starting quarterback, Okung has been responsible for just four sacks. And that’s not simply a function of Wilson’s ability to move in the pocket, as Wilson has been sacked the second-most times among all QBs since entering the league. It’s Okung’s linemates who are giving up most of Wilson’s sacks, as Okung gave up just 22 total pressures in 2014, ranking 13th in PFF’s pass-blocking efficiency metric.

So now that we’ve covered what type of player Okung is, let’s tackle another question: Can Seattle afford him? The Seahawks have done a marvelous job of keeping their Super Bowl corps together, whether by extending a player like Kam Chancellor at a below-market rate, keeping Bennett for less than he’s worth, or finding a viable starting QB in Wilson in the third round. But at a certain point, it becomes impossible to keep everyone, as evidenced by the fact that linebacker Bruce Irvin — like Okung, a former first-rounder — is widely expected to depart via free agency after the season.

As it stands now, Over the Cap projects the Seahawks to have about $14.4MM in cap space heading into the 2016 offseason (for context, that ranks as the 10th-least amount of room in the league). That number doesn’t figure to increase by that much, as there aren’t any obvious candidates for release on Seattle’s 2016 roster. One tactic could be to restructure the contracts of either Sherman or Thomas, converting some portion of their base salaries into signing bonuses and therefore creating more immediate cap relief. But, for the most part, the Seahawks will have to work with what they have.

Still, $14.4MM isn’t nothing — even after accounting for draft pick signings, it’d be enough to re-sign Okung. However, retaining Okung would likely mean saying goodbye to Irvin (as expected), Brandon Mebane, Ahyta Rubin, and possibly Jermaine Kearse. Additionally, it would leave little money left over for a free agent addition at, say, receiver, or along the interior offensive line. In other words, 2016 becomes the year where Seattle will have to start choosing precisely who it wants to keep around — they won’t be able to extend every contributor.

If Okung does hit free agency, he’ll be doing so along with an impressive crop of fellow left tackles. Barring any extensions between now and next March, the FA left tackle class will include Trent Williams, Anthony Castonzo, Andrew Whitworth, Nate Solder, Cordy Glenn, and Donald Penn. Williams is perhaps the most interesting comparable, as both he and Okung were selected in the top 10 of the 2010 draft, and both dealt with injuries last season (Williams missed just one game but was hampered knee, ankle, and shoulder problems throughout the 2014 campaign). Indeed, based on Pro Football Reference‘s metrics, they match up rather well:

NumYrs	Players whose career was of similar quality and shape
3	Trent Williams, Marvin Powell, Blake Brockermeyer, Joe Bostic, Mike Kenn, Mick Tingelhoff*, Kent Hill, Homer Elias, Kent Hull, Alex Barron
4	Alex Barron, Joe Bostic, Todd Steussie, Blake Brockermeyer, Trent Williams, Dan Dierdorf*, Sean Farrell, Kenyatta Walker, Frank Garcia, Donald Penn
5	Alex Barron, Tra Thomas, Bryant McKinnie, Trent Williams, Joe Bostic, Frank Garcia, Homer Elias, Dan Dierdorf*, Todd Steussie, Blake Brockermeyer
Career	George Foster, Orlando Franklin, Brad Badger, Bryan Bulaga, Zach Strief, Mike Pouncey, Will Beatty, Dave Taylor, Kyle Cook, Alex Barron

Two other players on that list, Bryan Bulaga and Will Beatty (both of whom appear under the Career section) are interesting for the purposes of this discussion, as they’ve both earned new contracts in the relatively recent past. Bulaga, a right tackle, signed a five-year, $33.75MM deal with the Packers in March that contained $8MM in guarantees. Beatty, a left tackle, signed in 2013, so his contract is a little outdated, but for reference, the Giants handed him $37.5MM over five years ($18.35MM guaranteed).

Okung was part of the last draft class that signed under the old CBA, so his current contract is artificially inflated. He’s earning about $8.08MM per season, so Beatty’s annual salary would actually represent a downgrade. That presents something of a problem: I don’t think Okung is good enough to jump into Brandon Albert/Duane Brown territory (~$9MM per year), but I also don’t believe that he’s interested in taking a pay cut. If we bump Okung’s AAV up to $8.25MM and stretch it over five years, that gives us a total of $42.25MM.

I’d guess Okung would think long and hard about accepting that offer, especially if the guarantees were in the neighborhood of $13-15MM. But would Seattle want to pay that much? They’d be giving Okung more than Joe Staley, Jared Veldheer, Eugene Monroe, and Jermon Bushrod on an annual basis, and I’m not sure Okung is better than any of them. Maybe the Seahawks would balk at such a price, hoping they can land of the top collegiate tackle prospects, or perhaps they could throw a short-term deal at someone like Whitworth.

It sounds like the Colts could be nearing a deal with Castonzo, and maybe if Washington wants to buy low on Williams with him coming off a down season, they could reach an agreement quickly, as well. Any extensions signed by those two would go a long way towards providing a baseline for the Seahawks and Okung to work from. One added wrinkle to the talks will be that Okung plans on negotiating his own deal without the help of an agent. How exactly that will affect discussions is unclear, but is it possible that Okung overvalues himself without an agent’s counsel?

Ultimately, I think it makes sense for the Seahawks to try and work something out with Okung. The Super Bowl corps can only be retained for so long, so if there’s any chance at extending their current championship window, Seattle should take it. But there’s no doubt that the club will have to start carefully picking and choosing who it wants to re-sign beginning in 2016. As Wagner tweeted before he was ultimately extended: “Can’t keep everyone.”

Extension Candidate: Julio Jones

July 23rd, 2015 at 2:03pm CST by Luke Adams

Over the last two offseasons, a handful of productive wide receivers have signed new contracts, including Jeremy Maclin, Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, Torrey Smith, Eric Decker, and DeSean Jackson. Out of that group, only Nelson has a strong case for being placed amongst the league’s very best wide receivers, and the Packers star signed his extension well before reaching free agency, accepting a below-market deal.

In other words, it had been a while since a top wideout had signed a contract that reset the market for receivers, establishing a new baseline for the NFL’s best players at the position. Mike Wallace‘s five-year, $60MM deal, finalized in March 2013, was the last signing that qualified up until last week, when Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas inked new extensions at the 11th hour before the franchise-tag deadline. The Cowboys’ and Broncos’ Pro Bowlers had their deals structured a little differently, but they look identical in terms of years and overall base value — five years and $70MM.

The per-year salaries for Bryant and Thomas fall well short of Calvin Johnson‘s $16.27MM annual average value, but that deal was an outlier, and the fact that the two franchised stars easily topped Wallace’s $12MM annual average better reflects their place among the NFL’s best wideouts. It also sets a clear baseline for the next crop of elite receivers who will seek new contracts, such as A.J. Green and Julio Jones.

Green may sign an extension this year, but he has suggested that he doesn’t mind playing out the 2015 season without a new agreement in place, and the Bengals seem content to wait as well. That leaves Jones as the receiver most likely to sign a lucrative new deal in the coming weeks, or even the coming days, with training camp just around the corner.

At the moment, Jones is set to play the 2015 season on his fully guaranteed fifth-year option, worth $10.176MM, which puts him in a slightly different situation that Bryant’s or Thomas’. Atlanta will have the option of franchising the team’s No. 1 receiver in 2016, meaning Jones’ case could eventually play out like the ones resolved last week.

However, as we saw with Bryant’s situation in particular, a prolonged negotiation can often result in some unpleasantness along the way. The Cowboys wide receiver was the subject of reports suggesting he was having money problems, and whispers about off-field concerns and a Walmart video tape that may or may not exist followed him for most of the offseason. If the Falcons could get Jones’ contract situation squared away now, it could save both sides some unnecessary stress down the read, considering the team has made it clear the wideout is considered a key long-term piece in Atlanta.

Before we automatically place Jones in the same five-year, $70MM range as Bryant and Thomas, it’s worth considering how he stacks up to the franchised duo. On paper, his 2014 numbers certainly compare favorably — in 15 games, Jones racked up 1,593 yards and six touchdowns on 104 receptions, setting a new Falcons team record for most receiving yards in a season. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) also ranked him right behind Bryant and Thomas, despite the fact that he played fewer snaps than either player.

Jones’ ability to explode for huge yardage totals was on full display in Green Bay last December, when the 26-year-old went off for 259 yards on just 11 receptions in Week 14. His 106.2 receiving yards per game last season also topped the career-best marks for both Bryant and Thomas, and his eye-popping 116.0 mark during five 2013 games suggests last year’s mark wasn’t an aberration.

Still, there are some areas in which Jones doesn’t match up to the league’s other top receivers quite so favorably. He only appeared in five games in 2013 because of a fractured foot that brought his season to a premature end, and that’s not the only time he has dealt with injuries. The former sixth overall pick missed a game in 2014 after suffering a hip pointer, and has had multiple hamstring-related issues since entering the league in 2011.

Not including that 2013 season that was cut short after five weeks, Jones has only missed four games in his three other years in the NFL, so it’s not as if he’s a major question mark to be on the field going forward. But considering neither Bryant nor Thomas has missed a game over the last three seasons, it’s a factor the Falcons must take into account when they consider a long-term investment in their own No. 1 receiver.

Another factor worth considering for the Falcons is who Matt Ryan will be throwing the ball to for the next several years, if not Jones. The former first overall pick no longer has future Hall-of-Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez to rely on, and longtime slot man Harry Douglas is now in Tennessee. Roddy White is still in the mix, but White will turn 34 in November, and is no longer a perennial lock for 1,000 yards.

A quarterback like Ryan will post solid numbers no matter who’s on the receiving end of his passes, but it’s worth noting that in 2013, when Jones missed 11 games, the Falcons signal-caller threw a career-high 17 interceptions and averaged a career-low 10.3 yards per completion en route to a 4-12 season. It would be a significant blow to the Atlanta offense to be without Jones at any point over the next few years.

So what will it take for the Falcons and Jones to get a deal done before the 2015 season gets underway? In examining the situation for CBSSports.com, former agent Joel Corry suggests that an extension in the neighborhood of $15.25MM per year makes sense, based on the likely franchise-tag figures for 2016 and 2017. If we assume a five-year extension at that rate, tacked onto Jones’ $10.176MM salary for 2015, it would work out to a total of six years and $86.426MM, an average of about $14.4MM annually.

Depending on the guaranteed money attached to such an offer, that looks like a pretty good deal for Jones, who could edge out Bryant and Thomas to become the league’s second-highest-paid receiver in that scenario. However, I’m not sure whether the Falcons would sign on the dotted line quite yet, considering they still have the franchise tag at their disposal, and they may want to see Jones stay healthy for one more year.

Still, if the Falcons were to make such an offer, it wouldn’t be the first time they’ve gone out on a limb for Jones — Atlanta parted with two first-round picks, a second-rounder, and two fourth-rounders to move up for the former Alabama wideout in 2011, and it’s hard to imagine the team thinks any less of him now. After all, his career mark of 88.4 receiving yards per game places him atop the all-time NFL leaderboard, slightly ahead of Johnson, the league’s current highest-paid receiver. I don’t expect the Falcons to make an offer in the Megatron neighborhood to Jones, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the club soon make him the league’s second-highest-paid wideout.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extension Candidate: Nick Foles

July 19th, 2015 at 8:50pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

Quarterback Nick Foles burst on the scene as a member of the Eagles in 2013, appearing in 13 games and totaling league bests in yards per attempt (9.12) and and rating (119.2 rating) on the strength of an astounding 27:2 touchdown:interception ratio. As a result, expectations with Foles were sky high entering last year, but he missed half the season because of a broken collarbone and his numbers took a significant step back (6.96 YPA, 13 TDs, 10 INTs and an 81.4 rating).

Eagles coach and football czar Chip Kelly decided Foles wasn’t an ideal fit for his offense, so he traded the 26-year-old to the Rams in a deal involving draft picks and, more importantly, Sam Bradford – another QB who has battled inconsistency during his career – earlier this offseason.

In St. Louis, Foles will try to rebound from a mediocre 2014, give the Rams their first taste of consistently above-average QB play since Marc Bulger’s heyday nearly a decade ago, and help the team break its 10-year playoff drought. If Foles accomplishes those things – or, at the very least, reestablishes himself as a legit starter – he’ll be in line to cash in by next offseason as a free agent. There’s a chance it could happen before then, though, as the three-year veteran and the Rams have both expressed interest in a contract extension. Head coach Jeff Fisher acknowledged discussions on a new deal, USA Today’s Howard Balzer tweeted in June, after NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport reported (via Twitter) that the initial talks between the two sides would “ramp up” prior to the season. Foles has already stated both a fondness for St. Louis and a desire to remain there, but noted that his agent would handle contract negotiations, ESPN’s Nick Wagoner tweeted last month.

Given the fact that he has put up less-than-stellar numbers in two of three seasons, it would be a gamble for the Rams to give Foles an extension prior to ever seeing him throw a pass in their uniform. But, considering how important quarterbacks are and how badly Rams QBs have struggled during their playoff drought, it might be a worthwhile risk for general manager Les Snead to lock up Foles now instead of waiting and possibly seeing his price rise exponentially thanks to a bounce-back season.

The question is: How much is it going to cost for the Rams to keep Foles long term? Wagoner took a look at the issue earlier this month and concluded that the Bengals’ Andy Dalton could be used as a comparable for a hypothetical Foles contract.

Dalton signed a six-year extension worth up to $115MM (with a guaranteed $17MM, which has already been paid out) last summer. At the time, Dalton had three things in common with present-day Foles: three years’ experience, one Pro Bowl appearance, and career-best outputs in 2013. In terms of counting stats, Dalton – unlike Foles – had three straight seasons of at least 3,300 yards, including a 4,200-plus-yard campaign in 2013, three consecutive years of 20-plus touchdown passes (33 in ’13) and quarterbacked three playoff teams in a row. Incidentally, Dalton and Foles were one spot apart in Pro Football Focus’ ranking system for QBs in ’13 (Dalton was 16th, Foles 17th – subscription required).

Foles hasn’t accomplished enough to earn a deal in Dalton’s neighborhood in terms of total value, but Dalton’s contract isn’t as enormous as it looks. Given the fact that Bengals have already paid Dalton his guaranteed money, his deal isn’t an anvil going forward. That allows the Bengals to evaluate Dalton on a year-to-year basis and decide whether to continue on with him. Wagoner notes that a similar structure would make sense for the Rams on a hypothetical Foles deal.

As far as length, annual value and guarantees go, Wagoner wrote that something in the range of $12MM to $14MM per annum for four years (with roughly $20MM in guarantees) might get an extension done. If Foles signs a contract in that vicinity and pans out, he’d be a steal for the Rams. Those financial numbers would be relatively modest for a solid starter, as the yearly salary and total guaranteed money would place just inside the top 20 among today’s QBs, according to Over The Cap. For Foles’ part, accepting a contract along those lines would allow him to secure himself financially now and, if he fares well, give him another crack at a hefty payday in a few years.

There would be risk on both sides if they were to strike a deal, clearly. If the two are realistic about Foles’ worth, though, the reward should outweigh any wariness.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extension Candidate: Muhammad Wilkerson

July 12th, 2015 at 7:42pm CST by Rob DiRe

The Jets haven’t had a lot to root for on the field during the last couple of years of Rex Ryan’s reign in New York, especially as the short-lived era of John Idzik came to an end. However, as the team is looking forward under the new leadership of Todd Bowles and Mike Maccagnan, they do so with a roster rebuild that was started under the previous regime.

One of the crown jewels of the team is coming into the option year of his rookie-contract, which the Jets exercised and will pay him $6.969MM in 2015. As Bowles looks to build a defense that can be one of the best in the AFC for years to come, signing Wilkerson to a long-term extension could give him a cornerstone player to build around.

Wilkerson’s talent has been on the line between underrated and acknowledged for most of his career. As a 3-4 defensive end in a blitz-heavy scheme, he isn’t in a position to put up large numbers in the traditional statistical categories, only notching 24 sacks in his four seasons, including a robust 10.5 in 2013. When some analysts refer to him as the second-best player at his position in the NFL, the player he is being compared to is J.J. Watt, who has two Defensive Player of the Year trophies and 57 sacks over the same time frame.

While it may be flattering for Wilkerson to be in that company, Watt’s status as the NFL’s undisputed top defender makes his sidekick seem quite small, especially playing the same position as him. Even the other notable defensive linemen in the league often come from the 4-3 mold, with only Calais Campbell of the Cardinals joining Watt as a 3-4 defensive end in the Pro Bowl in 2015. Traditional 4-3 pass rushers from defensive end also accompanied Watt on the 2014 Pro Bowl roster, and only Haloti Ngata represented the position aside from Watt in 2013.

Therefore, despite being regarded as one of the top players at his position, Wilkerson has never made the Pro Bowl in his career, even though he was second-team All-Pro in 2013, and ranked as the 74th best player and 42nd best player in the NFL according to the NFL Newtwork’s list.

Still, advanced metric sites like Pro Football Focus (subscription required) have rated Wilkerson extremely highly, listing him as the second-best 3-4 defensive end in 2012 and third best in 2014. Watt was first both of those years, and Wilkerson’s teammate Sheldon Richardson ranked second this past season. Accordingly, he was named a Pro Football Focus All-Pro in both of those seasons.

The complications of Wilkerson’s case for an extension come from the presence of Richardson, and are only additionally muddled by the drafting of Leonard Williams with the fifth-overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. The Jets may make a case for having the best defensive line in football this coming season, which is notable for a fan base that saw its elder brother Giants win two Super Bowls on the strength of its defensive line in spite of mediocre quarterback play.

On the other hand, the strength along the defensive line also provides the Jets a certain amount of leverage in these talks, with adequate replacements for Wilkerson already on the roster and under team control on rookie contracts going forward. They can afford to play hardball with Wilkerson, knowing they will have two more years plus a fifth-year option with Richardson and the full length of Williams contract as well. That doesn’t include the potential to use the franchise tag on these players to add a year of team control to their contracts, an option that extends to Wilkerson as well.

All that team control, as well as the in-house options, decidedly suppresses Wilkerson’s market with the Jets. Richardson commented earlier this offseason that both he and his teammate were worth those big $100MM contracts, and even more. “We don’t just want J.J. Watt money. We want it all,” said Richardson. “We want Suh money. Hopefully everybody wants that type of bread in this league.”

Watt signed a six-year contract worth $100MM last offseason, and Suh signed a six-year contract worth more than $114MM earlier this year. Wilkerson’s situation more closely resembles Watt’s as a 2011 draft pick. In both cases, the team had the fifth-year option and franchise tag at their disposal.

Suh, drafted a year earlier, was not subject to the newer rookie-wage scale and therefore had a bloated salary with no team options to fall back on. His contract was renegotiated for short-term cap room, but the Lions could not afford to use the franchise tag or re-sign him, and he hit unrestricted free agency.

If Wilkerson keeps his performance up and waits out his time with the Jets, free agency would be the best place for him to secure a $100MM contract. Manish Mehta doesn’t believe the team would consider that sized contract in an extension, at least not this year.

Letting Wilkerson walk and waiting for Richardson to come up for an extension seemed like a good idea, especially if the Jets thought Richardson is the better player. Unfortunately for Richardson, his recent suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy weakens his case as well, therefore tipping the scale back in Wilkerson’s favor.

Richardson’s suspension was for marijuana use, and the policy for that offense includes a number of steps before suspension. That knowledge suggests that this isn’t his first positive test, and that this is an ongoing problem for Richardson as long as marijuana is included in the substance abuse policy. Add to that how outspoken Richardson has been about the type of money he eventually wants to command, and the team might see a safer option in Wilkerson.

As he is overshadowed by Watt on the field, if Wilkerson and the Jets are able to come to an agreement on an extension, he will also be overshadowed by Watt’s bank account. Based on production, given similar leverage, it is unfair to expect Wilkerson to match those numbers, even if waiting until closer to the end of the team’s control usually shifts leverage to the player.

In the scenario where the two sides are able to come together on a number, I think throwing Watt’s contract out would be a given, but given that after Watt’s $100MM the next highest total value for a contract is Calais Campbell and Cameron Jordan‘s similar five-year, $55MM deals, there is a lot of breathing room in between to work out, according to OverTheCap.com.

Even going to high profile 4-3 defensive ends like Robert Quinn‘s four-year deal worth $57MM and Charles Johnson‘s six-year, $76MM contract could be the high marks for Wilkerson. Johnson’s deal is an outlier in terms of production when accounting for the position he plays, but his position is also more valuable. Quinn has more star power, and his $14MM+ yearly salary is a big number to approach. If Wilkerson could get a six-year deal worth $70MM, that would put him in an elite tax bracket, well above all his contemporaries save for Watt.

However, it seems like both sides would have to make serious concessions to make that happen. The vibe coming from the Jets organization as well as Wilkerson’s camp is that they are comfortable playing out the string. I would still expect Wilkerson to be franchised after this season, but if he does reach free agency, I’d guess he gets a lot closer to the number he wants than he will with the Jets.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extension Candidate: Cordy Glenn

July 11th, 2015 at 8:33pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

Defensive tackle Marcell Dareus is rightly atop the Bills’ priority list when it comes to extension candidates, but he isn’t the team’s only key lineman entering a contract year. Offensive tackle Cordy Glenn is also set to play out his final season under Buffalo’s control. While the team would be wise to make an effort to lock Glenn up for the foreseeable future, there hasn’t been much talk of a long-term deal for the 25-year-old. Unless something changes, he could cash in elsewhere in 2016.

Since the Bills used a second-round pick in 2012 on Glenn, the former Georgia standout has been a durable stalwart, appearing in 45 of a possible 48 regular-season games with the team. Every one of Glenn’s 45 appearances have been starts, and he has earned positive grades from Pro Football Focus in all three seasons of his career. Glenn was the only Bills O-lineman last year who received plus marks from PFF, which ranked the unit an abysmal 30th out of 32 teams.

Glenn’s ability to both stay on the field and play well despite being surrounded by subpar line mates are reasons to keep him in the fold going forward, but the Bills may not view the 25-year-old as positively as PFF does. In fact, he and second-year man Seantrel Henderson – whom PFF (subscription required) ranked as the worst right tackle in the league in 2014 – spent offseason practices alternating between the left and right sides.

Glenn took the transition in stride, saying, “The way I look at it, when you’re here, you’re trying to help out your team … Anything you’ve got to do to win, you’ve got to do it.”

Glenn’s positive approach could change if he ends up in a backup role, which Buffalo News scribe Vic Carucci introduced as a possibility last month. If the Bills’ coaches (namely head man Rex Ryan, offensive coordinator Greg Roman and line coach Aaron Kromer) like the athletic Henderson enough to be their left tackle and fellow second-year pro Cyrus Kouandjio on the right side, that could relegate Glenn to the bench – a place for which he’s clearly far too qualified. That seems unlikely when one considers Glenn’s track record, Henderson’s horrid 2014 and Kouandjio’s inability to get on the field as a rookie after the team used a second-round pick on him, but the fact that Carucci mentioned the idea means it isn’t totally far-fetched.

Even if Glenn does ultimately start and impress for a fourth straight season, it may not be enough to sway Bills brass, led by general manager Doug Whaley, in his favor. Carucci noted late last month that, given the Bills’ desire to keep a dominant defense together, Glenn was at the bottom of an extension pecking order that includes Dareus and linebacker Nigel Bradham, whose deal also expires at year’s end.

In the event the Bills do find a way to keep Glenn as part of their long-term core, a deal in the range of $30MM to $40MM overall may be in the offing. That’s roughly the going rate nowadays among good, in-their-prime tackles – evidenced by the recent contracts given to Rodger Saffold ($31.7MM), Jared Veldheer ($35MM) and Eugene Monroe ($37.5MM) – not to mention a significant step up from the rookie deal under which Glenn is currently playing.

One comparable Glenn and his agent could use is Veldheer, whose resume was similar to Glenn’s in places when he signed his deal as a free agent in 2014. At the time, Veldheer was 26, a four-year veteran, with 48 starts under his belt. On the other hand, two of Veldheer’s seasonal performances drew negative grades from PFF and he missed 11 games because of a triceps tear the year before signing with the Cardinals. However, PFF did rank him as one of the league’s 16 best tackles in 2011 and ’12. Those efforts helped the ex-Raider land a five-year, $35MM payday. The total value of Veldheer’s contract currently ranks a modest 14th among left tackles, as does the the $17MM in guarantees (including a $6.25MM signing bonus) he received, per Over The Cap. If Glenn’s next contract exceeds those totals, odds are it won’t be by much.

The Bills seem to be taking a wait-and-see approach with respect to Glenn’s long-term status. But if Henderson and Kouandjio don’t take sizable steps in 2015, it’s hard to imagine Buffalo letting Glenn go without a fight. Quality left tackles who are young and durable aren’t exactly easy to come by, and a team whose O-line was a major weakness last season (and could be again this year) isn’t in position to allow one of its few capable blockers to head elsewhere.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extension Candidate: Bobby Wagner

July 4th, 2015 at 8:06pm CST by Sam Robinson

Compiling arguably the best collection of drafts throughout the decade, the Seahawks have been proactive in keeping their cornerstone players together. This offseason elevates the two-time reigning NFC champions’ investment stakes to another level, obviously, with Russell Wilson‘s contract now the centerpiece of the NFL financial dialogue.

But Seattle’s lurking decision rests on defense, with Bobby Wagner entering his walk year. The Seahawks have an incredibly rare contingent of All-Pros, Pro Bowlers and other upper-echelon contributors that weren’t selected in the first round, so they in a sense face expedited timelines on players like Wilson and Wagner, just as they did on Richard Sherman last summer without the luxury of the fifth-year option safety net. In Wilson’s case, the debate on whether he’s enabled the Seahawks or vice versa wages on, but Wagner’s been a similar boon for the Hawks’ defense and will command a contract that could eclipse all inside linebackers if he enters free agency next March.

Wagner, though, does not play a position that possesses the value that Sherman’s or, obviously, Wilson’s do, so his second contract will be a more reasonable accord than what Wilson’s reportedly seeking. But with a resume that now includes first-team All-Pro, for a 2014 regular season that featured Wagner playing only 11 games, the 2012 second-round pick will receive a massive contract from either the Seahawks or a suitor desperate to pry a top-flight Seattle defender away from the figurative factory in the pacific northwest.

In April, it was reported Wagner could command a deal north of $8MM per year, but that figure rose to around $10MM by June. The latter report from CBS Sports’ Jason La Canfora indicates the Seahawks and Wagner are closer to an agreement than Wilson is with the team he piloted to two Super Bowls, so the odds of Wagner surpassing Brian Cushing, Lawrence Timmons (league-high $9.6MM per-year average for inside linebackers) and NaVorro Bowman to become the highest-paid inside backer have increased. Wagner’s pact would also be a breakthrough for 4-3 middle linebackers, with the bulk of the highest-paid second-level insiders coming from 3-4 defenses. James Laurinaitis‘ $8.3MM-per-year average with the Rams represents the only 4-3 backer currently in the top 5 among contract values, with Daryl Washington‘s potentially tenuous deal rounding out the quintet.

Entering his age-25 season, Wagner will undoubtedly ascend into this tax bracket soon, be it on an extension, the accepting of another team’s offer, or playing on the franchise tag — which treats all linebacking spots the same and paid $13.2MM to second-level cogs in 2015 — in an unlikely scenario.

The Seahawks’ defense molded back into an elite force once Wagner recovered from his turf toe injury last season, and the team slapped together a menacing eight-game win streak as a result en route to another NFC title. Wagner still cleared the 100-tackle plateau, helped elevate Seattle back to a top-2 perch in terms of DVOA for the third straight season and, in a strange show of respect considering Aaron Rodgers and J.J. Watt had seemingly more dominant slates, earned an MVP vote from Tony Dungy. Pro Football Focus has also bestowed two top-5 positional finishes (subscription required) on Wagner, for his 2012 (second) and ’14 work (fifth), respectively.

Barring a season-altering injury, Wagner’s value appears pretty clear. But the Seahawks keeping their latest defensive stalwart comes down to a few factors.

One being that while Seattle does a masterful job at keeping its own talent after extending Thomas, Sherman and Kam Chancellor in a span of 13 months, it may not be able to house that many highly paid players. Joining that trio as top-10 players in terms of overall contract value are Marshawn Lynch, who is not a homegrown performer but definitely a home-enhanced one, Jimmy Graham, left tackle Russell Okung and outside backer K.J. Wright, who quietly signed a $6.7MM-per-year extension last December.

That quartet is attached to contracts worth the second-, first-, 10th- and second-most money in terms of average per year at their respective positions, according to OverTheCap. And defensive ends Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett, PFF’s second-best 4-3 end last year and a player who is already displeased with the deal he signed in March 2014, are banking $7MM per year and in the top 15 highest-paid performers at their position.

Seattle’s currently able to get away with these allotments to its top athletes since it’s paying mostly rookie-deal money to its offensive front and after freeing itself from the Percy Harvin contract, doesn’t have a wideout making more than $4.5MM per year. Of course, the main reason the Seahawks have kept this core together and were able to take on the No. 1 tight end contract is because they don’t have an upper-echelon quarterback salary anchoring their payroll.

Might Wagner be the one who suffers from Wilson being paid his due? Seattle has the 10th-most salary cap room in 2016 at $38.01MM, but that figure includes the following starters with expired deals: Wilson, Wagner, Okung, Brandon Mebane, Tony McDaniel, Jermaine Kearse, Bruce Irvin, J.R. Sweezy and Alvin Bailey. Wilson and Wagner are the highest priorities among this group, but their deals could flood the aforementioned free agent fund and induce potential cuts to other starters, especially if the franchise tag is involved.

Beyond Wilson’s potentially historic demands overshadowing Wagner’s extension talks, do the Seahawks believe Wagner is irreplaceable, or can they get by without him as they believe they can after allowing Byron Maxwell to hit the market? Unlike at cornerback where the team churns out able bodies, the Seahawks don’t really have much depth behind Wagner, with only UDFA Brock Coyle present. This could strengthen Wagner’s bargaining position, but it’s not like a top-tier middle backer is a must-have for contenders, as nickel has become the new base. The Broncos managed to make the Super Bowl with former XFL cog Paris Lenon starting there, while the Patriots won the title mostly without Jerod Mayo‘s services.

Wagner is a three-down linebacker who does well in coverage, and those aren’t the easiest to replace, however. Of the 11 spots on the first-team All-Pro squads during the 2010s, former first-round talents occupied seven of them, and of PFF’s annual top-5 backers during the decade, 14 of those slots went to ex-first-rounders. So while teams shy away from spending prime draft capital on inside backers, affecting the position’s value, the franchises who have done this have largely reaped rewards in recent years.

The Seahawks have shown a sublime track record at drafting stars, and a future featuring a potential $20MM-per-year salary to Wilson and $10MM/AAV to Wagner will potentially force cuts to key players in the next couple of years and further place a premium on extracting supreme value from first-contract performers. Because if the Seahawks can somehow make that work without suffering mightily at their lesser-compensated positions, they’ve figured out a way to establish long-term success without earning a heartless reputation the Patriots have regarding paying their own talent.

Judging by the reports coming out of Seattle, there is enough to indicate the Seahawks are serious in their efforts to keep Wagner at their defensive forefront. That will affect the ancillary talents that also are up for new contracts, but with the Seahawks’ draft-and-develop track record, paying Wilson and Wagner while starting over at certain spots may be a worthy gamble.

Photo courtesy USA Today Sports Images

Extension Candidate: Ryan Kerrigan

June 30th, 2015 at 9:44pm CST by Rory Parks

When one thinks of elite pass rushers, Ryan Kerrigan’s name may not jump immediately to mind. Kerrigan’s compatriots, superstars like Justin Houston, Von Miller, and Jason Pierre-Paul, tend to garner more attention, and rightfully so. But Kerrigan has quietly put together an excellent early career in Washington, notching 38 sacks over his first four years in the league while starting each of his team’s 64 games during that time. Twice he has been ranked among the top 10 3-4 outside linebackers in the league, per Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required), and he has never been ranked outside the top 30.

2014 was his finest season to date, as he posted his first double-digit sack total (13.5) and finished as PFF’s fifth-best 3-4 OLB. He also has a penchant for the big play, with two interceptions, two touchdowns, 16 passes defensed, and a whopping 15 forced fumbles to his credit. He has never been particularly strong against the run, earning negative grades in that area in all four seasons of his professional career, but his pass-rushing abilities make him an integral part of Washington’s front seven.

To that end, Washington has made it known that it wants to lock up the former Purdue product, who is entering the final year of his rookie contract, to a long-term deal. We learned back in March that Washington was discussing an extension with Kerrigan, and on May 11 of this year, Kerrigan himself noted that talks were “progressing well.” New GM Scot McCloughan also expressed optimism that a deal would get done, but on May 29, Kerrigan reported that, as far as he was aware, there were no updates to pass along on negotiations. That was the last we have heard on the matter.

Although Kerrigan has dealt with some injuries over the course of his career, those ailments have not, as his track record indicates, forced him to miss any playing time. He tore the lateral meniscus in his left knee in Week 3 of the 2013 campaign, but he was able to play through the injury and turn in a productive season (though he later admitted to John Keim of ESPN.com that the tear may have had an impact on his performance, as evidenced by the fact that he amassed just two sacks in the final nine weeks of the season after putting up 6.5 in the first seven). He had arthroscopic knee surgery to repair the tear immediately after the 2013 season ended, and he underwent another round of arthroscopic surgery on the same knee just last month. He said that the second surgery was merely cautionary, and at this point there is no reason to think otherwise. Of course, two surgeries in two years on the same knee could certainly impact his price tag, though if his 2015 performance is anything like his 2014 effort, that impact will likely be minimal.

Right now, all signs point to Kerrigan continuing his career in burgundy-and-gold for the foreseeable future, though Washington has other similarly pressing matters to resolve. For instance, the team hopes to strike an extension with left tackle Trent Williams, who is also entering the final year of his deal and who will likely command a contract with an $11-12MM average annual value. There are also a number of high-priced veterans eating significant cap space on 2016’s ledger, though many of those veterans can be released without creating too much dead money should the team need to find some cap room.

Kerrigan’s 2014 season put him in some pretty elite company, as PFF ranked him alongside the likes of Terrell Suggs, Julius Peppers, and Elvis Dumervil. But unlike those All-Pros, Kerrigan, at 26, is in the prime of his career, and while he is not an elite player who will rake in over $16MM annually like J.J. Watt and Mario Williams, he can expect a nice boost from the roughly $7MM he is earning this season. Pernell McPhee recently signed a five-year, $40MM deal with Chicago, and that was after serving his first four years in the league as a part-time player in Baltimore. I would think Kerrigan, who played exactly 1,000 snaps last season, has a reasonable chance at something along the lines of a five-year, $55-60MM deal with Washington. It may not make him the highest-paid linebacker in the game, but it should make both sides happy, and it would allow Washington to hold onto its best defensive player at a relatively reasonable price.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extension Candidate: Marcell Dareus

June 22nd, 2015 at 12:25pm CST by Luke Adams

Under old head coach Doug Marrone, the Bills’ defensive line wasn’t just the best part of the team’s defense. It was the strength of the roster as a whole. It was also on the verge of becoming very, very expensive.

Defensive end Mario Williams was already one of the league’s highest-paid players, with a cap hit of $19.4MM due for 2015. Fellow defensive end Jerry Hughes was on his way to a payday of his own, and landed a $45MM extension in March. Meanwhile, defensive tackles Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams were in line for the club’s second- and third-highest 2015 cap numbers.

The arrival of Rex Ryan and new defensive coordinator Dennis Thurman doesn’t make any of those players any less expensive, but a new defensive scheme should spread those big salaries out a little among the front seven. Rather than four defensive linemen being among the Bills’ five largest cap charges of 2015, two of those players – Hughes and Mario Williams – now figure to line up at the outside linebacker position most of the time in Thurman’s 3-4 defense.

Had those four standout players remained on the defensive line, the Bills would have had to decide whether to commit a huge chunk of their salary cap to one position group, and it looked as if the team was prepared to do just that. Certainly, if one of the four were to walk in free agency, it would have been Hughes, the only one in the group who hasn’t earned a Pro Bowl nod. Hughes, who has recorded double-digit sacks in each of the last two seasons, can hold his own against the run, but he’s essentially a pass-rushing specialist, and the club was still willing to lock him up for $9MM per year.

That deal bodes well for Dareus, the last member of the Bills’ old 4-3 line eligible for a big payday. Because he was a first-round pick, the former Crimston Tide star had a fifth-year option on his four-year rookie contract, which the Bills exercised a year ago, keeping the All-Pro lineman under team control through the 2015 season. While that bought the club a little extra time, Dareus’ contract will have to be addressed soon, or else he’ll be eligible to be franchised or to hit the open market in 2016.

A defensive tackle under Marrone, Dareus appears likely to continue playing on the inside under Ryan, occupying the nose tackle role in Thurmond’s 3-4 scheme. Interior defensive linemen typically don’t post huge sack numbers, but Dareus has done an impressive job getting after the quarterback in his first four seasons, recording 28.5 career sacks, including 10 in 2014, a total that matched Hughes’ output. That number may decline for the first time in 2015 as Dareus moves to nose tackle, but the Bills value his ability to stop the run at least as much as his ability to bring down the quarterback.

Without extensively studying Dareus’ game tape, his overall impact against opposing run games is hard to quantify, particularly since the Bills were outside of the top 10 run defenses in 2014, allowing 106.4 yards per game and 4.1 yards per carry. However, Pro Football Focus (subscription required) ranked Dareus first among the league’s defensive tackles as a run defender, giving him a +20.7 grade. By comparison, Ndamukong Suh was second, with a +17.6 mark.

At age 25, Dareus is several years younger than Mario Williams or Kyle Williams, who are both in their 30s, and he’s a more dynamic and well-rounded defender than Hughes. Coming off his first All-Pro nod, the former third overall pick appears poised for a massive payday. The only thing that might derail it? Some dreaded “off-field concerns.”

The term “off-field concerns” has become a catch-all that can refer to anything from possible mental health issues to a serious criminal record. In Dareus’ case, those “concerns” date back to a pair of arrests that occurred during the 2014 offseason — one for possession of a controlled substance and drug paraphernalia, and another for endangerment and leaving the scene of an accident.

Dareus is facing a one-game suspension for his drug arrest, meaning he’ll miss the Bills’ regular season opener in 2015. While one missed game isn’t a huge concern, and probably won’t have a major impact on the team’s willingness to extend the star defensive tackle, it’s a red flag, since any subsequent violations would result in longer and costlier suspensions. I don’t think that risk will deter the Bills from making Dareus one of the highest-paid defensive linemen in the NFL, but the club may include language in the 25-year-old’s next contract that protects the franchise if he’s arrested again.

So what sort of years and dollars might Dareus be looking at on his next contract? He and his reps may point to Suh’s deal and argue that Dareus has been just as effective as the former Lion. But Suh joined the Dolphins as an unrestricted free agent, and Dareus would be hard-pressed to match those numbers even if he reached the open market, which won’t happen anytime soon. It’s too early to know exactly what the 2016 franchise tag figures will look like, but it would likely cost Buffalo about $12MM to franchise Dareus, which looks like a nice bargain compared to the $19MM+ annual salary Suh is earning in Miami.

It’s more likely that Dareus’ extension comes in at a price closer to what Gerald McCoy got from the Buccaneers. McCoy’s seven-year pact was worth $95.2MM, an average of $13.6MM per season, which could go as high as $14MM per year via incentives. With the salary cap on the rise, there’s a chance Dareus exceeds that annual salary, but I think it’s more likely that he settles for a bit less. Based on how Tampa Bay’s front office structures contracts, McCoy’s extension didn’t include a ton of guaranteed money, whereas the Bills are more likely to include sizable signing bonuses and option bonuses in their deals.

If Dareus were to accept a multiyear extension worth in the neighborhood of $12-13MM per year, the team could be happy knowing that it will pay its star defensive tackle less money per year than the Bucs are paying McCoy, and significantly less than Suh or J.J. Watt are getting from their respective teams, which could help assuage those “off-field concerns.” At the same time, Dareus could land a guarantee that’s more significant than what McCoy got from the Bucs, which would make it more difficult for the Bills to move on from him within the first two or three years of the contract.

If Dareus’ legal run-ins are a serious concern for the Bills, or if Suh’s mammoth new contract has increased Dareus’ asking price significantly, it’s possible these contract talks will extend into 2016, perhaps necessitating the use of a franchise tag. However, GM Doug Whaley has stressed that working out a long-term agreement with Dareus is the Bills’ top priority this summer, so I expect we’ll see the two sides get something done before the season begins.

What do you think? Will the Bills and Dareus reach a deal soon? What’s your salary estimate for his next contract?

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extension Candidate: Malik Jackson

June 20th, 2015 at 7:13pm CST by Sam Robinson

One of the more intriguing players to suit up for the Broncos’ defense in recent years, Malik Jackson has a similarly interesting case for long-term employment in Denver.

Aside from Von Miller, finding a performer who’s made more flash plays on that unit the past two seasons than Jackson is difficult, but whether he’s a cornerstone talent like Miller on that defense is a layered case and depends largely on how Jackson is used in his contract year.

The Broncos have opted to unleash their hybrid performer in spurts during the past two seasons, and the results give the former fifth-round pick in 2012 an obvious case for an integral role in this season’s defense.

Jackson’s performance is hard to question, and the former Tennessee and USC cog’s eventual second contract will be one of the interesting test cases for Pro Football Focus.

Jackson managed a strange feat that will make him valuable if/when he hits free agency next March: he managed to be a top-12 player at both defensive tackle and defensive end in successive seasons on PFF’s advanced metrics without the team undergoing a scheme change.

From his six sacks in 2013 playing primarily as a 4-3 3-technique tackle to his three last season in an off-the-bench role spelling DeMarcus Ware and 2012 draft class companion Derek Wolfe at end, Jackson was rated as the 12th- and third-best player (subscription required) at his respective positions despite playing just 52.7 and 52.3% of Denver’s snaps in those campaigns. His 578 snaps last year ranked just 30th among 4-3 defensive ends, more than 400 behind Cameron Jordan‘s position-leading total.

Although Gary Kubiak‘s stated desire to play Jackson plenty due to the flashy plays the new coach has seen on film, the Broncos clearly prefer Jackson as an off-the-bench performer despite the success at each juncture, creating a junction point in his career coming up. Will clearing the 60-snap plateau for the first time in a game deprive him of the energy with which he plays and hamper his ascent?

Denver will now use a 3-4 scheme after Wade Phillips‘ arrival, and this would seemingly benefit the 6-foot-5, 284-pound tweener of sorts, with it requiring a bigger defensive end that can stop the run. With Ware relocating to outside linebacker opposite Miller in this set, it opens up a void for a pass-rusher up front, since Wolfe hasn’t shown much in that department since his rookie season. Jackson could also be used inside in passing-down scenarios this season when Miller and Ware potentially return to three-point stances on the edges, strengthening his case for a hefty second contract.

While Wolfe, who also is a career 4-3 end who will stay up front in a 3-4 alignment this season, excels against the run, Jackson’s showcased a knack for altering both ball-advancement methods. PFF bestowed its third-best run-stoppage grade (for a 4-3 end) upon Jackson last season, and the 25-year-old was the eighth-best pass-rusher in that grouping. Only Michael Bennett was a better multi-dimensional 4-3 end last season, while just J.J. Watt and Sheldon Richardson received higher against-the-pass and against-the-run grades than Jackson.

If Jackson can keep playing at or near the level he’s shown as a second- and third-year player, the Broncos may not be able to afford his fifth.

Demaryius Thomas remains in limbo with the franchise tag looming for his sixth season. If the Broncos do not come to terms on an extension for their Pro Bowl wideout by July 15, the last day franchise players can sign long-term deals, they must reach an accord with Miller to avoid a future without one of them. Unless Miller, who is playing this season on his fifth-year option, receives what would be a monstrous extension in the next nine-plus months, he’ll be in the franchise tag-or-free agency boat with Thomas.

One of them almost certainly will be franchised in 2016, leaving players like Jackson, 2013 tackles leader Danny Trevathan and Wolfe as clear lower-tier priorities despite lengthy statuses in and around the starting lineup. Deadlines generally induce action, and Denver’s re-signed its franchise players in 2012 (Matt Prater) and 2013 (Ryan Clady), which provides hope for a Thomas accord. That would provide some much-needed clarity for the Broncos’ future salary cap situation.

There’s also the matter of Peyton Manning‘s $21.5MM cap figure for 2016 that remains tethered to the Broncos’ plans. Should the 39-year-old quarterback retire, that obviously frees up a lot of money. But whether GM John Elway wants to entrust his team to a still-unknown commodity in Brock Osweiler — also a 2016 free agent despite scant on-field work as Manning’s lanky apprentice — and the low salary that should be attached to him is questionable, meaning potential re-ups for players like Jackson and Trevathan aren’t necessarily improved by a Manning departure after this season.

Plus, with the Broncos opting to splurge on its 2014 free agent class, a move that did yield four Pro Bowlers, instead of second contracts for the bulk of its talented 2011 draft/UDFA contingent (save for Chris Harris, who signed a team-friendly five-year, $42MM deal in December), an interesting build-from-outside methodology has emerged under Elway.

The Broncos largely opted to do the same thing in 2013, with a big free agent balance sheet and a sizable, albeit less-talented, cadre of homegrown players leaving. The second-contract gridlock that’s forthcoming will be an even bigger test for Elway, as Miller and Thomas are top-5 players at their positions.

Miller and, barring a restructure that is certainly in play, Ware could make more than $25MM between them next year. This depends on whether or not Miller is franchised. The Broncos also traded up to take Shane Ray in the first round this year. But Denver hasn’t shied away from bolstering strengths, with Harris re-signing despite Aqib Talib‘s big-money pact and Bradley Roby‘s first-round selection occurring months before.

With a good year, Jackson can aim high, possibly using Pernell McPhee‘s five-year, $38.7MM deal with the Bears as a benchmark. Despite McPhee primarily playing linebacker, his size, versatility and usage rate make him a comparable player, and Jackson probably has a more consistent resume.

If 3-4 defensive end is Jackson’s future, he could find himself on the Jason Hatcher/Desmond Bryant tier that includes an average income of $6.8MM per year. With another production leap in a starting role, it’s not out of the realm of possibility the advanced metrics darling could find himself on the fringe of the class that Jordan, Corey Liuget and Jurrell Casey occupy, with Casey’s $9MM/year serving as that group’s floor.

If that kind of salary demand becomes realistic, the Broncos’ issues with Thomas and Miller will get in the way of making Jackson a long-term part of their defense.

The Broncos not reaching a deal with Demaryius Thomas — as they failed to do last summer with he and Julius Thomas, who bolted for a huge Jaguars offer as a result — would cloud their future with Jackson, now their best defensive lineman and possibly by a large margin. So a future with a long-term deal for their consistent receiver, and a subsequent Miller franchise tag, would be a positive scenario for keeping Jackson in Denver.

Otherwise, with no young depth behind Wolfe and Jackson, the Broncos may have to start over on their defensive front’s edges — as they did at tight end this year, with an inferior talent in Owen Daniels — if these dominoes don’t fall their way.

Photo courtesy USA Today Sports Images

Extension Candidate(s): The Ravens’ Guards

June 6th, 2015 at 7:09pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Under new offensive coaches Gary Kubiak, Rick Dennison, and Juan Castillo, the Ravens offensive line of 2014 displayed perhaps the greatest improvement of any front five in the league from the season prior. After ranking as the NFL’s worst run-blocking unit and exactly average — No. 16 — in terms of pass-blocking in 2013 (according to Football Outsiders), Baltimore’s line graded as third-best in the pass game and No. 4 in the run game last season.

That level of success can be attributed to several factors, including Kubiak’s implementation of a zone-blocking scheme, the excellent play of center Jeremy Zuttah (acquired from the Buccaneers during the offseason), or the fact rookies John Urschel and James Hurst performed capably as fill-ins when injuries struck. But the foremost component that lead to Baltimore’s front five turnaround was the preeminent play of its interior lineman — left guard Kelechi Osemele and right guard Marshal Yanda — each of whom enters the final season of his contract.

The 30-year-old Yanda is the elder statesman of the two, having been drafted in 2007 and already having negotiated one extension with the Ravens (a five-year, $32MM deal signed in 2011). He’s probably also the better player — his +43.8 Pro Football Focus grade (subscription required) placed him atop the guard rankings, was nearly double that of the next highest guard, and put him well above Osemele, whose +21.6 mark placed him sixth at the position.

While Yanda does have the edge in experience, that also means that Osemele hasn’t yet endured the wear and tear of many 1,000-snap seasons along the interior. Osemele, a former second-round draft pick, won’t even turn 26 years old until later this month, and has has only 37 NFL games (all starts) on his ledger. Yanda, meanwhile, has played in 115 contests, but his only major injury scare came during his second season in the league, when he suffered a season-ending knee injury.

Because of Yanda’s longer track record, we can be more sure that his success is no fluke. He’s never finished outside the top-25 at his position per PFF — including 2010, when he started 15 games at right tackle — and he’s ranked among the top three guards in three of the past four seasons. Osemele, obviously, was impressive last season, but had little to no success during his first two NFL seasons. He was below-average as a tackle in 2012, and wasn’t much better in seven games at guard in 2013. Injuries sapped much of Osemele’s ’13 campaign, so perhaps now that he’s settled at one position and injury-free, his true talent is able to shine. But it’s hard to argue that Yanda is more a sure thing at this point.

Though the Ravens would surely like to retain both players, reports have indicated that the club will probably only be able to re-sign one, and for now, it seems like Yanda is the favorite to land a long-term deal. General manager Ozzie Newsome mentioned Yanda by name in May, but also seemed to leave the door open for Osemele. “If we don’t get it done [with Yanda],” said Newsome, “we’ll move on to the next.” Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com reported the same last week, noting that Yanda would be the team’s primary target, with Osemele being a secondary option.

The fact that the Ravens would only retain one of their guards makes sense in that it fits in with NFL contractual trends. Most clubs seem averse to spending large chunks of cap space on two quality guards. Only four teams — the Falcons, Titans, Cardinals, and Packers — will employ two guards who have a 2015 cap hit in excess of $2.5MM. Tennessee and Arizona are only on that list because they spent first-round picks on guards, meaning only Atlanta and Green Bay will pay two veteran guards any sort of large sum.

Though it would be tough for any club to shell out long-term deals to both its starting guards, it could be especially difficult for Baltimore given the cap concerns it will face starting in 2016. Quarterback Joe Flacco‘s cap hit will jump to an astounding $28.55MM (second only to Ndamukong Suh‘s figure), while cornerback Jimmy Smith‘s extension will begin, increasing his cap figure to $9.6MM. The Ravens project to have just under $21.5MM in cap space available for 2016 (10th-least in the league), and while the club can make moves to create space — Flacco’s deal will likely be restructured, while Lardarius Webb and others could be released — financial room could be tight.

If they do hit the free agent market next March, both Yanda and Osemele will look to top the five-year, $40MM deal Mike Iupati signed with the Cardinals this offseason. Left guards, like Osemele and Iupati, earn more than their counterparts on the right, so Osemele will have an advantage in that regard. Osemele will be entering his age-27 campaign next year, while Iupati is already 28, and the former’s recent track record is superior to that of Iupati’s in his platform season. If Osemele maintains his production from 2014, there is no reason he shouldn’t match or exceed Iupati’s deal, especially given that he doesn’t intend to give Baltimore a hometown discount.

For his part, Yanda is already the highest-paid right guard, earning $6.4MM annually. Given his age and position, I think he’ll have a much more difficult time matching Iupati’s deal. Certainly, he is one the best (if not the best) at his position, but it’s hard to imagine a club spending ~$40MM on a lineman who will be entering his age-32 season in 2015. Hensley suggested in February that a four-year, $30MM pact would make sense for all parties involved, and while I agree on the length, I think Yanda could push for a higher AAV, perhaps asking for $8MM per, with $16-18M in guarantees.

Much of Yanda and Osemele’s value could be derived by maintaining their consistent play through this season. Will Osemele post another above-average campaign, cementing his status among the elite guards? Will Yanda stay healthy as he enters his thirties, and maintain his production as he ages? The answer to those questions will go a long way towards determining not only which guard scores a larger contract, but which stays in Baltimore long-term.

Photo courtesy of USA Sports Images.

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