Extension Candidate News & Rumors

NFL Extension Candidates Series

Here at PFR, we’ve been previewing some of the league’s top candidates for big money contract extensions. Here’s the full rundown of our Extension Candidates entries, with plenty more to come throughout the summer: 

Extension Candidate: Texans OLB Jadeveon Clowney

Jadeveon Clowney is no stranger to PFR’s Extension Candidates series. Last year, Clowney seemed poised for the big bucks, but the Texans elected to have him play out the 2018 on his $12.3MM fifth-year option. This year, they employed the $15.967MM franchise tag to cuff him, but Clowney has yet to sign his tender. 

The two sides have until July 15 to work out a long-term deal. If Clowney is not signed to an extension by that date, Clowney will be on course for free agency after the season. While he has been kept in limbo and away from free agency riches, he is not completely without options. Last year, Le’Veon Bell elected to stay at home rather than signing his one-year tender with the Steelers and signed with the Jets as an unrestricted free agent in March.

Clowney’s situation is complicated by a number of factors. Unhappy with the club’s lack of action, he abstained from the team’s mandatory minicamp. And, unless he signs his tender or gets the extension he wants, it’s unlikely that he’ll be involved in the team’s full training camp. Meanwhile, the Texans are without a GM following their surprising dismissal of Brian Gaine and failure to land Patriots exec Nick Caserio.

Will the Texans’ front office revamp breath new life into the longstanding standoff between the club and one of its top defenders? So far, that doesn’t appear to be the case – we’ve yet to hear any recent developments on a deal and the team, presumably, is still wary of a long-term commitment that would make him one of the NFL’s highest-paid edge rushers.

Depending on who you ask, the Texans may have shown a willingness to trade Clowney earlier this offseason. At this point, the Texans may have to commit, or get off the pot. Or, in other words, their only options may be to fork over a massive contract to the former No. 1 overall pick or trade him to a team that will.

Extension Candidate: Cowboys WR Amari Cooper

Amari Cooper says he wants to be a member of the Cowboys for a “long time.” Meanwhile, the Cowboys are pretty keen on him after he gave new life to their offense in the second half of the 2018 season. An extension, logically, should be right around the corner as Cooper enters his contract year, but that’s not quite the case. 

“Not now,” Cooper said when asked if he should be the league’s highest-paid receiver, which is his camp’s presumed goal in talks. “Definitely looking forward to earning that respect and definitely looking forward to coming into this year and just putting up those numbers for my team and really showing what I can do in a full season as a Dallas Cowboy. I know that I have the skillset to be one of the highest-paid receivers. I’m just all about going out there and proving it.”

Cooper, a former first-round pick of the Raiders, had an up-and-down tenure in Oakland. Cooper opened his career with back-to-back 1,000-yard+ seasons, but he sagged in 2017 as the Raiders limped to a 6-10 finish. He appeared to be on the same course – and perhaps lacking motivation – through the first six games of the ’18 campaign. Cooper caught 22 balls for 280 yards and one score before he was shipped to Dallas, where things finally clicked, for one reason or another.

In nine games with Dallas, Cooper exploded for 53 catches, 725 receiving yards, and six scores. Extrapolated for a 16 game season (while rounding up a bit), that’s a 96/1296/10 stat line over the course of a full 16-game season, which would represent all new career highs for Cooper.

The Cowboys could be taking a risk by giving Cooper a top-of-the-market deal now, but waiting would also be a gamble. The Cowboys are expected to lean a bit more on their passing game this year than in years past –particularly if Ezekiel Elliott gets hit with another suspension – and Cooper says he’s aiming for 2,000 yards receiving.

If the Cowboys allow Cooper to play out the 2019 season and franchise tag him in 2020, they’ll be paying him upwards of $31MM guaranteed over the course of the next two years. That’s a reasonable starting point for both sides in talks, though Cooper shouldn’t necessarily be in a rush to sign. With Julio Jones, Michael Thomas, and A.J. Green all vying for new deals, it may behoove Cooper to stay patient, wait out the market, and try to top all of them to become the highest-paid receiver in the league.

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Extension Candidate: Tyler Boyd

When it comes to extension talk in Cincinnati, much of the focus is understandably on wide receiver A.J. Green. However, the player who follows Green on the depth chart is also eligible for a sizable raise.

Former second-round receiver Tyler Boyd is set to hit free agency following the 2019 season, and Paul Dehner Jr. of The Athletic wrote last month that the Bengals want to extend the 24-year-old. This doesn’t come as much of a surprise, as the wideout broke onto the scene last year.

Following a pair of underwhelming seasons to begin his career, Boyd had a breakout campaign in 2018, hauling in 76 receptions for 1,028 yards and seven touchdowns in 14 games. Part of his production could be attributed to the fact that Green missed seven games, placing Boyd atop the depth chart. On the flip side, the receiver also established a career-high catch percentage and yards-per-target.

Furthermore, Boyd adds a bit of toughness and personality to the Bengals, indicated by his decision to attend voluntary OTAs. As Dehner wrote, many extension-eligible players bypass these workouts in fear of an avoidable injury that could vicariously cost them millions. Boyd showed up anyway, stating that a pseudo-holdout would be an unnecessary distraction.

“I’m just trying to do what’s right,” Boyd said. “I’m going to be a team player and go out there and work my tail off. I’m not going to try to skip out on reps or miss a day. That’s the best approach to it. Typically, a guy trying to come out to a season saying, ‘you have to pay me,’ it shows where the care is going. He is a ‘me’ guy. Or, you are still working and going to be a team guy. I am not trying to strategize and make it seem like I’m just trying to do what’s right (to get a deal done), that’s just the way I am.”

So Boyd seems to be saying and doing all the right things, and he’s shown plenty of improvements on the field. So what kind of money will Boyd be eyeing on his next contract? The business-savvy receiver actually pointed to receiver Sterling Shepard‘s contract with the Giants, which was a four-year deal worth $41MM ($21.3MM guaranteed). Dehner suggested that Boyd could also focus on the deal that Tyrell Williams signed with the Raiders (four years, $44MM ($22MM guaranteed)).

As our own Dallas Robinson previously pointed out, Boyd topped Shepard in every offensive category this past season, and he finished higher than the Giants wideout in both Pro Football Focus‘ positional grades and Football Outsiders’ receiving metrics. Boyd’s 2019 season was comparable to Williams’ 2016 campaign, although Williams was older and coming off a pair of subpar seasons when he signed his recent deal with Oakland.

In other words, don’t be shocked if Boyd pushes for a contract that exceeds $11MM annually. Considering the receiver’s apparent affinity for Cincy, the guess here would be a four-year contract worth around $46MM (with a bit more than half guaranteed).

Of course, Boyd’s extension may be partly dependent on how the Bengals handle Green’s next deal. Regardless, expect Boyd’s superstar teammate to receive the first extension, at which time the front office will surely turn their focus to their fourth-year receiver.

Extension Candidate: Bobby Wagner

Bobby Wagner has one year left on his current contract with the Seahawks, and the two sides have begun extension talks. It’s unclear how much progress has been made, but with Wagner (understandably) aiming to break the $17MM/year payout that C.J. Mosley landed from the Jets this offseason, there may be some bumps in the road.

For what it’s worth, Robert Mays of The Ringer believes that the two sides will come to terms before the season begins. After all, the Seahawks are projected to have more than $75MM in cap space in 2020, and though they will be paying a ton of money to Russell Wilson for the foreseeable future and also want to extend Jarran Reed, they will be able to fit Wagner, one of the game’s best defensive players, on their books. As Mays notes, head coach Pete Carroll said back in March that, “Bobby’s going to be a Seahawk.”

Wagner attended this month’s minicamp but did not participate in team drills, and he has stated that he will continue to remain on the sidelines until he gets a new deal. And assuming he does get his wish this year, that deal could hit nine figures. Although the general consensus is that the Jets overpaid for Mosley, his five-year, $85MM pact has set the floor for Wagner, and Wagner is much more accomplished. He is a five-time Pro Bowler, four-time First Team All-Pro, and is a bonafide tackling machine, having averaged 140 tackles per year since he entered the league in 2012. The advanced metrics love him just as much as the raw numbers, as Pro Football Focus graded Wagner as the best off-ball linebacker in the league last season.

Wagner has always excelled against the run, and his coverage abilities now rival his run-stopping talents. And while some teams have devalued the inside linebacker role over the past few years, the league’s best quarterbacks exploit the middle of the field to great effect, which makes players like Wagner all the more valuable.

Indeed, Mays suggests that Wagner, who is representing himself, should shoot for a contract that pays him like one of the league’s best 4-3 defensive ends, because he has a similar impact on opposing offenses despite not being a pass rusher. That would mean a $100MM+ deal with an AAV of over $20MM and close to $50MM guaranteed at signing. And considering Wagner’s importance to the team, his place in franchise history, and his relative youth — the birthday boy turned 29 today — that sounds like a pretty reasonable guess.

The Seahawks, who surely don’t want to go to $20MM per year on Wagner’s next contract, could hold firm at whatever price they’ve set and try to put the franchise tag on Wagner next year (which is projected to carry a $16.8MM value). But going that route could lead to an ugly, Earl Thomas-esque battle, and it may be worth a couple million dollars to avoid that.

The guess here is that Wagner gets his contract at some point this summer and that he comes in just shy of the $100MM mark with a five-year, $95MM pact that includes roughly $45MM in fully-guaranteed money.

Extension Candidate: Rams CB Marcus Peters

With one year to go on his contract, the Rams say they’re looking to lock up Marcus Peters for the long haul. However, things have been quiet on that front and it’s fair to wonder whether he’ll be re-upped at all. 

Peters, 26, is entering the fifth year of his rookie contract. After that, the Rams have the option of keeping him off of the free market with the franchise tag, but that would be an expensive proposition. This offseason, the one-year tender for cornerbacks was set at $16.022MM. Next year, that number is expected to climb north of $17MM.

Peters’ 2018 campaign was a tale of two players. He struggled in the first half of the year, but things started to click in the latter portion of the season. He was particularly impressive in the Super Bowl and, along with punter Johnny Hekker, he was one of only a few Rams players to turn in a quality performance.vIn terms of pure talent, Peters is among the very best at his position. However, his up-and-down 2018 season and history of clashing with coaches in Kansas City may be giving the Rams pause.

It’s also worth noting that the Rams have been reluctant to pay big bucks for defensive backs in the past. In recent years, they’ve allowed corners Trumaine Johnson and Janoris Jenkins and safeties Rodney McLeod, T.J. McDonald, and Lamarcus Joyner to walk. And, in the recent case of Johnson, that proved to be a wise move – if given the opportunity by a genie, the Jets probably turn back time and tear up the veteran’s five-year, $72.5MM deal (they might also ask the genie to fire then-GM Mike Maccagnan before the thick of the 2018 offseason, but we digress.)

So, what will the Rams do with Peters? If they choose, they can stand pat and allow Peters to play out his 2019 season at a reasonable rate of $9.069MM. Alternatively, if they want to extend Peters now, they may have to back up a Brinks truck for him.

In May, the Dolphins made Xavien Howard the highest-paid cornerback in NFL history with a five-year, $76.5MM extension, giving him an average annual value of $15.3MM. The deal also includes $27MM in full guarantees, slotting him behind only Josh Norman, Johnson, Stephon Gilmore, Denzel Ward, and Jenkins. When considering that two of those corners once formed the backbone of the Rams’ secondary, it’s hard to see the team making a similar commitment to Peters before he can consistently prove his worth over the course of a full season.

For what it’s worth, head coach Sean McVay says the Rams “absolutely” want to sign Peters to an extension. We’ll see if the Rams put their money where their mouth is in the coming weeks, when Peters’ reps will likely seek a deal in the neighborhood of Howard’s.

Extension Candidate: Bengals WR A.J. Green

As one of the league’s most feared wide receivers, an extension for A.J. Green should be fairly simple. Unfortunately, after yet another injury-shortened season, the negotiations figure to be a bit complicated. 

On the plus side, Bengals owner Mike Brown has indicated that he wants Green to remain in Cincinnati on a new deal.

Oh, I think he’s a proven commodity, isn’t he?,” Brown said in March. “The price range for him will be something we can figure out, it will come together. It’s true with anyone, if they suddenly get an injury..it reduces them. Well that changes the equation, but I never plan on that happening. I like to think that won’t happen. If A.J. is healthy, he’s as good a receiver as anybody in the league.”

Ditto for Green:

Cincinnati is home for me,” Green said recently. “I’ve been here nine years. This is home as much as South Carolina. All I know is Cincinnati. I can’t see myself playing anywhere else or playing in a different city. Hopefully I can be here for a couple more years, so we’ll see on that part.”

Will Green have himself a fat new contract before or soon after his 31st birthday in July? That may depend on his willingness to accept a bit of a hometown discount.

Green has missed 13 games due to injury over the past three seasons and the Bengals, historically, have not been big spenders. They’ve also recently extended teammates Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap, so their flexibility is somewhat limited.

Green finished out the 2018 season with just 46 catches for 694 yards and six touchdowns, but when his nine-game season is adjusted for 16 games, those numbers are right in line with his career 75/1,113/8 average. It’s also worth noting that ’18 was only Green’s second season to fall shy of the 1,000-yard mark. The only other time that happened was in 2016, when he came just 36 yards shy, despite playing in just ten games.

Ultimately, a new deal for Green should put him right around Odell Beckham Jr.’s $18MM average annual value, particularly if fellow receivers Julio Jones and Michael Thomas ink their next deals first. Of course, Green’s deal will be shorter in length than OBJs, or, at the very least, have a much lighter load of guarantees beyond Year 2.

For now, Green is set to enter the final season of his four-year, $60MM contract.

Extension Candidate: Patriots QB Tom Brady

It’s rare for an NFL player to continue his career into his 40s and even rarer for that player to be up for an extension. But, of course, most players are not like Tom Brady.

The multiple-time Super Bowl champ will be out of contract after the 2019 season after he collects on $27MM in earnings. There’s no conceivable scenario in which Brady leaves the Patriots in free agency, but it remains to be seen how the Patriots will structure Brady’s next contract or when they’ll be able to come to an accord.

Brady will turn 42 in August and the Patriots have no succession plan in place for the future Hall of Famer. Theoretically, they could cuff him with the franchise tag if no agreement can be reached, but it would come at a rate of $32.4MM for the 2020 season (a 20% increase from his current cap figure).

Historically, Brady has given the Patriots significant hometown discounts, but he might not be feeling as generous this time around. Amidst rumblings of discord in Foxboro, the Pats added $5MM in incentives to Brady’s 2018 deal. However, he did not his the statistical markers necessary to realize the full potential of the bonus package.

So, what will a new deal for Brady look like? Although Brady showed some chinks in the armor last year, he could easily make a case to join the $30MM/year club, which currently counts Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Carson Wentz, and Matt Ryan among its members.

Meanwhile, Brady’s last deal inked in 2016 averaged out to just $20.5MM/year. Adjusted for cap inflation, that number would be somewhere around $25MM/year, which would position him as just the tenth-highest paid quarterback in terms of average annual value.

Many expect Brady to settle in at that $25MM per annum figure, but don’t be surprised if the two sides shake hands at the midway point between that number and the star’s true market value.

Extension Candidate: Julio Jones

After skipping voluntary OTAs, Falcons star Julio Jones reported for the team’s mandatory minicamp earlier this month. There’s clear mutual interest in a new deal, but Jones’ situation is trickier than most. 

Jones is one of the league’s most accomplished wide receivers, but figuring out a multi-year extension for a 30-year-old skill player is never easy. He’s topped 1,400 receiving yards in each of the last five seasons, but it’s hard to bank on his speed holding up across multiple seasons.

Still, Jones led the league with 1,677 receiving yards in 2018 and continues to draw double coverage from overwhelmed defenses on a regular basis. And, while his contract has two more years to go, the Falcons cannot risk a rift – or a holdout – with their most potent offensive weapon.

A fresh deal for Jones would likely take him through the end of his career, but what would such an add-on look like? Currently, Jones’ salary has him ranked just 12th among wide receivers with an average annual value of $14.25MM. Making Jones No. 1 in AAV would mean vaulting him ahead of Antonio Brown‘s $19.8MM/year and Odell Beckham Jr.’s $18MM/year, which should be doable for the Falcons. However, Jones is unlikely to match the length of OBJ’s contract or, more importantly, the guarantees.

Beckham’s five-year, $90MM extension granted him $65MM in total guarantees and a whopping $41MM guaranteed at signing. Jones, who is already under contract through his age 32 season, is probably looking at no more than an additional three years. From there, you can expect a hefty signing bonus, and a decent sum scheduled for Year One of the new deal, but it’s unrealistic to expect the Falcons to ensure $41MM to the aging superstar.

So, how can the two sides reach an accord that is satisfactory for everyone? Recently, Joel Corry of CBSSports.com suggested the following:

  • Length: Three years
  • New money total: $60MM (Bringing total remaining value to $81MM over five years)
  • Signing bonus: $25MM
  • Guaranteed money: $50.526MM
  • Fully guaranteed at signing: $37.526MM

Ultimately, that amounts to a $20MM average annual value, allowing Jones to edge Brown and OBJ in that category. Meanwhile, the Falcons preserve some flexibility, as Jones’ total guarantees would be $14.475MM shy of OBJ’s.

A new deal for Jones and the Falcons seems like an inevitability, but it will be interesting to see when they get it done, how they get it done, and what the cashflow of the extension looks like.

Extension Candidate: Austin Hooper

With the Falcons’ front office focusing its efforts on star wide receiver Julio Jones at the moment, it stands to reason that contract negotiations for other key players would take a temporary backseat. But once the Jones situation is resolved, Atlanta could turn its attention to an extension for tight end Austin Hooper, who became a reliable target for Matt Ryan in 2018 en route to his first Pro Bowl bid.

Now that Hooper has completed his third year in the league, he is eligible for a new contract. And since the Stanford product was a third-round selection, he cannot be kept under club control via the fifth-year option, so he will become an unrestricted free agent next year if he and the Falcons do not agree to an extension before then.

The market for tight ends has not taken off in the same way that the markets for edge rushers and quarterbacks have, so it would behoove the Falcons to commit a relatively small percentage of their cap space to a rising player who could be a fixture on the offense for years to come. Two of the best tight ends in the league, Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz, are making less than $10MM per season, and even Rob Gronkowski was unable to crack the eight-figure barrier before his retirement. The Bears gave Trey Burton a four-year, $32MM pact last offseason based largely on Burton’s upside rather than his production to that point in his career, so it may take a little more than that for the Falcons to keep Hooper. Given the ever-rising salary cap, though, that does not seem like too steep of a price to pay.

Hooper lasted until the third round of the 2016 draft due to concerns about his hands and route-running, but he has largely quieted those concerns over his first three years in the league. And while his receiving ability is going to be what gets him the payday he’s seeking, he was an above-average performer in terms of run-blocking and pass-blocking last year, per Pro Football Focus’ metrics.

Advanced analytics from PFF and Football Outsiders still peg Hooper as more of a solid player than an elite one, but his trajectory is quite promising just the same, and when a club extends a player, it often makes sense to pay for trajectory rather than past performance.

In 2018, Hooper caught 71 passes — on 88 targets, for a league-best 81% catch rate — for 660 yards and four touchdowns. He may never become the threat that Kelce and Ertz are, but the Falcons don’t necessarily need that. They need a dependable outlet for Ryan who catches passes that are thrown his way, who can create mismatches over the middle of the field, and who can make defenses pay for focusing their attention on other players (like Jones).

Hooper represents all of those things, and he should only get better. A five-year, $42.5MM pact with $20MM or so in guarantees seems to make sense for both sides.