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Extension Candidate: Titans S Kevin Byard

July 10th, 2019 at 7:49pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Kevin Byard wasn’t supposed to be this good. Lance Zierlein of NFL.com, one of the best talent evaluators in football, gave Byard a sixth- to seventh-round grade when he entered the 2016 draft out of Middle Tennessee State. Here’s how one NFC scouting director assessed Byard, per Zierlein.

“Ankle tackler so that’s a concern and I just don’t trust him in coverage. I know he has all the interceptions but I don’t see a player who can match up in space against NFL-­caliber receivers. I know some scouts love him because of his football IQ, but that’s not enough for me.”

The Titans weren’t dissuaded, and used the first pick of the third round (No. 64 overall) on Byard. The 5’11”, 211-pounder became a starter for Tennessee midway through his rookie campaign, and has since proved himself to be one of the best values of that 2016 draft.

Per Pro Football Reference’s approximate value metric, which attempts to encapsulate a player’s production in a single number, Byard has been the 11th-most valuable member of the 2016 draft class. He’s produced 23 points of career AV, tied for second among defenders with 49ers defensive end DeForest Buckner and Jaguars linebacker Myles Jack (Jacksonville cornerback Jalen Ramsey is first among defensive players).

Byard is now arguably the best player on the Titans’ defense (although perhaps Jurrell Casey would like a word), and of the top-graded safeties in the NFL. He led the league in interceptions (eight) in 2017, and leads the NFL in picks over the past two combined seasons. Pro Football Focus, meanwhile, has graded Byard as a top-eight safety in each of the past two years, noting both his pass coverage and run defense acumen.

Set to turn 26 years old in August, Byard will hit unrestricted free agency next March. So what would an extension between he and the Titans look like? The first factor to examine is the 2020 safety market, which is, in a word, barren. Devin McCourty is scheduled to become a free agent next spring, but the longtime Patriot will be 32 years old at that point. Other free agent safeties, such as Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Rodney McLeod, D.J. Swearinger, Damarious Randall, and Karl Joseph could struggle to garner significant contracts, based both on their production and the recent history of safety deals.

Byard will likely be the most attractive free agent safety available, but Tennessee does hold some leverage in the form of the franchise tag. Unless Marcus Mariota posts a breakout campaign in 2019, the Titans don’t have any other realistic candidates for the franchise tender. Under the tag, Byard would receive roughly $11.5MM in 2020; if the Titans franchised him again in 2021, he’d pick up another $13.8MM or so. That’s $25MM+ guaranteed over the next two seasons, which should create an absolute floor in negotiations.

Byard and his camp will almost certainly point to Landon Collins‘ six-year, $84MM pact with the Redskins — signed this past March — as a contract comparable, and he’d be right to do so. However, it’s possible that the rest of the NFL will view the Collins deal as an outlier (“that crazy Washington front office!”). Even when adjusting for inflation of the salary cap, Collins’ contract is the sixth-most valuable safety deal of all-time, which doesn’t exactly match his production.

Still, it shouldn’t be a surprise if Byard is able to top $14MM/year, the mark hit by both Collins and Tyrann Mathieu this offseason. He just may not surpass the record $44.5MM in full guarantees that Byard collected from the Redskins. Instead, beating Mathieu’s $26.8MM guarantee and aiming for something in the $30-32MM range seems more feasible for Byard.

Extension Candidate: Falcons LB Deion Jones

July 9th, 2019 at 9:00am CST by Zachary Links

With so much attention being paid to a potential extension for Falcons receiver Julio Jones, it’s easy to forget about the Falcons’ other player by the same surname who is pushing for a new deal. Linebacker Deion Jones has been discussing an extension as he enters his walk year, but we haven’t heard much news regarding his situation in recent weeks. 

As a former second-round pick, Jones is slated to earn less than $1.1MM in 2019, with no club option for a fifth season. In theory, the lack of an option is a good thing for players like Jones who have outperformed their draft slot, but the Falcons still have leverage thanks to his laughably low salary for the coming year. Jones isn’t necessarily the priority either – the Falcons are likely putting a greater focus on Grady Jarrett‘s contract and the aforementioned contract of J. Jones.

Jones, who won’t celebrate his 25th birthday until November, has proven to have a nose for the ball. In three seasons, he has eight interceptions to his credit, including three pick-six plays for touchdowns. He was also a tackling machine in his first two seasons, though a broken foot suffered in Week 1 of the 2018 season kept him to a total of six games last year.

The injury undoubtedly hurt his negotiating position, though a broken foot is not as devastating as a ligament tear to the knee. Jones still has serious potential at the linebacker position with plenty of room to grow before entering his prime years.

The Falcons would obviously love to keep Jones in the fold for years to come, but the skyrocketing rate for inside linebackers may prove to be a barrier. In March, C.J. Mosley passed Luke Kuechly on a rocket ship with a five-year, $85MM deal that includes $43MM fully guaranteed. Granted, this was a free agent deal, and Mosley is more accomplished than Jones, but Jones’ camp undoubtedly has those specs in mind. Meanwhile, Seahawks star Bobby Wagner is also in the hunt for a new deal, and the market could balloon even further if he puts pen to paper before Jones.

Ultimately, we expect the Falcons to get something done with their young linebacker, but he might have to wait until the other stars are addressed.

NFL Extension Candidates Series

July 4th, 2019 at 5:00pm CST by Zachary Links

Here at PFR, we’ve been previewing some of the league’s top candidates for big money contract extensions. Here’s the full rundown of our Extension Candidates entries, with plenty more to come throughout the summer: 

Extension Candidate: Texans OLB Jadeveon Clowney

July 4th, 2019 at 1:30pm CST by Zachary Links

Jadeveon Clowney is no stranger to PFR’s Extension Candidates series. Last year, Clowney seemed poised for the big bucks, but the Texans elected to have him play out the 2018 on his $12.3MM fifth-year option. This year, they employed the $15.967MM franchise tag to cuff him, but Clowney has yet to sign his tender. 

The two sides have until July 15 to work out a long-term deal. If Clowney is not signed to an extension by that date, Clowney will be on course for free agency after the season. While he has been kept in limbo and away from free agency riches, he is not completely without options. Last year, Le’Veon Bell elected to stay at home rather than signing his one-year tender with the Steelers and signed with the Jets as an unrestricted free agent in March.

Clowney’s situation is complicated by a number of factors. Unhappy with the club’s lack of action, he abstained from the team’s mandatory minicamp. And, unless he signs his tender or gets the extension he wants, it’s unlikely that he’ll be involved in the team’s full training camp. Meanwhile, the Texans are without a GM following their surprising dismissal of Brian Gaine and failure to land Patriots exec Nick Caserio.

Will the Texans’ front office revamp breath new life into the longstanding standoff between the club and one of its top defenders? So far, that doesn’t appear to be the case – we’ve yet to hear any recent developments on a deal and the team, presumably, is still wary of a long-term commitment that would make him one of the NFL’s highest-paid edge rushers.

Depending on who you ask, the Texans may have shown a willingness to trade Clowney earlier this offseason. At this point, the Texans may have to commit, or get off the pot. Or, in other words, their only options may be to fork over a massive contract to the former No. 1 overall pick or trade him to a team that will.

Extension Candidate: Cowboys WR Amari Cooper

July 3rd, 2019 at 9:00am CST by Zachary Links

Amari Cooper says he wants to be a member of the Cowboys for a “long time.” Meanwhile, the Cowboys are pretty keen on him after he gave new life to their offense in the second half of the 2018 season. An extension, logically, should be right around the corner as Cooper enters his contract year, but that’s not quite the case. 

“Not now,” Cooper said when asked if he should be the league’s highest-paid receiver, which is his camp’s presumed goal in talks. “Definitely looking forward to earning that respect and definitely looking forward to coming into this year and just putting up those numbers for my team and really showing what I can do in a full season as a Dallas Cowboy. I know that I have the skillset to be one of the highest-paid receivers. I’m just all about going out there and proving it.”

Cooper, a former first-round pick of the Raiders, had an up-and-down tenure in Oakland. Cooper opened his career with back-to-back 1,000-yard+ seasons, but he sagged in 2017 as the Raiders limped to a 6-10 finish. He appeared to be on the same course – and perhaps lacking motivation – through the first six games of the ’18 campaign. Cooper caught 22 balls for 280 yards and one score before he was shipped to Dallas, where things finally clicked, for one reason or another.

In nine games with Dallas, Cooper exploded for 53 catches, 725 receiving yards, and six scores. Extrapolated for a 16 game season (while rounding up a bit), that’s a 96/1296/10 stat line over the course of a full 16-game season, which would represent all new career highs for Cooper.

The Cowboys could be taking a risk by giving Cooper a top-of-the-market deal now, but waiting would also be a gamble. The Cowboys are expected to lean a bit more on their passing game this year than in years past –particularly if Ezekiel Elliott gets hit with another suspension – and Cooper says he’s aiming for 2,000 yards receiving.

If the Cowboys allow Cooper to play out the 2019 season and franchise tag him in 2020, they’ll be paying him upwards of $31MM guaranteed over the course of the next two years. That’s a reasonable starting point for both sides in talks, though Cooper shouldn’t necessarily be in a rush to sign. With Julio Jones, Michael Thomas, and A.J. Green all vying for new deals, it may behoove Cooper to stay patient, wait out the market, and try to top all of them to become the highest-paid receiver in the league.

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Extension Candidate: Tyler Boyd

June 29th, 2019 at 11:45am CST by Ben Levine

When it comes to extension talk in Cincinnati, much of the focus is understandably on wide receiver A.J. Green. However, the player who follows Green on the depth chart is also eligible for a sizable raise.

Former second-round receiver Tyler Boyd is set to hit free agency following the 2019 season, and Paul Dehner Jr. of The Athletic wrote last month that the Bengals want to extend the 24-year-old. This doesn’t come as much of a surprise, as the wideout broke onto the scene last year.

Following a pair of underwhelming seasons to begin his career, Boyd had a breakout campaign in 2018, hauling in 76 receptions for 1,028 yards and seven touchdowns in 14 games. Part of his production could be attributed to the fact that Green missed seven games, placing Boyd atop the depth chart. On the flip side, the receiver also established a career-high catch percentage and yards-per-target.

Furthermore, Boyd adds a bit of toughness and personality to the Bengals, indicated by his decision to attend voluntary OTAs. As Dehner wrote, many extension-eligible players bypass these workouts in fear of an avoidable injury that could vicariously cost them millions. Boyd showed up anyway, stating that a pseudo-holdout would be an unnecessary distraction.

“I’m just trying to do what’s right,” Boyd said. “I’m going to be a team player and go out there and work my tail off. I’m not going to try to skip out on reps or miss a day. That’s the best approach to it. Typically, a guy trying to come out to a season saying, ‘you have to pay me,’ it shows where the care is going. He is a ‘me’ guy. Or, you are still working and going to be a team guy. I am not trying to strategize and make it seem like I’m just trying to do what’s right (to get a deal done), that’s just the way I am.”

So Boyd seems to be saying and doing all the right things, and he’s shown plenty of improvements on the field. So what kind of money will Boyd be eyeing on his next contract? The business-savvy receiver actually pointed to receiver Sterling Shepard‘s contract with the Giants, which was a four-year deal worth $41MM ($21.3MM guaranteed). Dehner suggested that Boyd could also focus on the deal that Tyrell Williams signed with the Raiders (four years, $44MM ($22MM guaranteed)).

As our own Dallas Robinson previously pointed out, Boyd topped Shepard in every offensive category this past season, and he finished higher than the Giants wideout in both Pro Football Focus‘ positional grades and Football Outsiders’ receiving metrics. Boyd’s 2019 season was comparable to Williams’ 2016 campaign, although Williams was older and coming off a pair of subpar seasons when he signed his recent deal with Oakland.

In other words, don’t be shocked if Boyd pushes for a contract that exceeds $11MM annually. Considering the receiver’s apparent affinity for Cincy, the guess here would be a four-year contract worth around $46MM (with a bit more than half guaranteed).

Of course, Boyd’s extension may be partly dependent on how the Bengals handle Green’s next deal. Regardless, expect Boyd’s superstar teammate to receive the first extension, at which time the front office will surely turn their focus to their fourth-year receiver.

Extension Candidate: Bobby Wagner

June 27th, 2019 at 6:35pm CST by Rory Parks

Bobby Wagner has one year left on his current contract with the Seahawks, and the two sides have begun extension talks. It’s unclear how much progress has been made, but with Wagner (understandably) aiming to break the $17MM/year payout that C.J. Mosley landed from the Jets this offseason, there may be some bumps in the road.

For what it’s worth, Robert Mays of The Ringer believes that the two sides will come to terms before the season begins. After all, the Seahawks are projected to have more than $75MM in cap space in 2020, and though they will be paying a ton of money to Russell Wilson for the foreseeable future and also want to extend Jarran Reed, they will be able to fit Wagner, one of the game’s best defensive players, on their books. As Mays notes, head coach Pete Carroll said back in March that, “Bobby’s going to be a Seahawk.”

Wagner attended this month’s minicamp but did not participate in team drills, and he has stated that he will continue to remain on the sidelines until he gets a new deal. And assuming he does get his wish this year, that deal could hit nine figures. Although the general consensus is that the Jets overpaid for Mosley, his five-year, $85MM pact has set the floor for Wagner, and Wagner is much more accomplished. He is a five-time Pro Bowler, four-time First Team All-Pro, and is a bonafide tackling machine, having averaged 140 tackles per year since he entered the league in 2012. The advanced metrics love him just as much as the raw numbers, as Pro Football Focus graded Wagner as the best off-ball linebacker in the league last season.

Wagner has always excelled against the run, and his coverage abilities now rival his run-stopping talents. And while some teams have devalued the inside linebacker role over the past few years, the league’s best quarterbacks exploit the middle of the field to great effect, which makes players like Wagner all the more valuable.

Indeed, Mays suggests that Wagner, who is representing himself, should shoot for a contract that pays him like one of the league’s best 4-3 defensive ends, because he has a similar impact on opposing offenses despite not being a pass rusher. That would mean a $100MM+ deal with an AAV of over $20MM and close to $50MM guaranteed at signing. And considering Wagner’s importance to the team, his place in franchise history, and his relative youth — the birthday boy turned 29 today — that sounds like a pretty reasonable guess.

The Seahawks, who surely don’t want to go to $20MM per year on Wagner’s next contract, could hold firm at whatever price they’ve set and try to put the franchise tag on Wagner next year (which is projected to carry a $16.8MM value). But going that route could lead to an ugly, Earl Thomas-esque battle, and it may be worth a couple million dollars to avoid that.

The guess here is that Wagner gets his contract at some point this summer and that he comes in just shy of the $100MM mark with a five-year, $95MM pact that includes roughly $45MM in fully-guaranteed money.

Extension Candidate: Rams CB Marcus Peters

June 27th, 2019 at 12:00pm CST by Zachary Links

With one year to go on his contract, the Rams say they’re looking to lock up Marcus Peters for the long haul. However, things have been quiet on that front and it’s fair to wonder whether he’ll be re-upped at all. 

Peters, 26, is entering the fifth year of his rookie contract. After that, the Rams have the option of keeping him off of the free market with the franchise tag, but that would be an expensive proposition. This offseason, the one-year tender for cornerbacks was set at $16.022MM. Next year, that number is expected to climb north of $17MM.

Peters’ 2018 campaign was a tale of two players. He struggled in the first half of the year, but things started to click in the latter portion of the season. He was particularly impressive in the Super Bowl and, along with punter Johnny Hekker, he was one of only a few Rams players to turn in a quality performance.vIn terms of pure talent, Peters is among the very best at his position. However, his up-and-down 2018 season and history of clashing with coaches in Kansas City may be giving the Rams pause.

It’s also worth noting that the Rams have been reluctant to pay big bucks for defensive backs in the past. In recent years, they’ve allowed corners Trumaine Johnson and Janoris Jenkins and safeties Rodney McLeod, T.J. McDonald, and Lamarcus Joyner to walk. And, in the recent case of Johnson, that proved to be a wise move – if given the opportunity by a genie, the Jets probably turn back time and tear up the veteran’s five-year, $72.5MM deal (they might also ask the genie to fire then-GM Mike Maccagnan before the thick of the 2018 offseason, but we digress.)

So, what will the Rams do with Peters? If they choose, they can stand pat and allow Peters to play out his 2019 season at a reasonable rate of $9.069MM. Alternatively, if they want to extend Peters now, they may have to back up a Brinks truck for him.

In May, the Dolphins made Xavien Howard the highest-paid cornerback in NFL history with a five-year, $76.5MM extension, giving him an average annual value of $15.3MM. The deal also includes $27MM in full guarantees, slotting him behind only Josh Norman, Johnson, Stephon Gilmore, Denzel Ward, and Jenkins. When considering that two of those corners once formed the backbone of the Rams’ secondary, it’s hard to see the team making a similar commitment to Peters before he can consistently prove his worth over the course of a full season.

For what it’s worth, head coach Sean McVay says the Rams “absolutely” want to sign Peters to an extension. We’ll see if the Rams put their money where their mouth is in the coming weeks, when Peters’ reps will likely seek a deal in the neighborhood of Howard’s.

Extension Candidate: Bengals WR A.J. Green

June 26th, 2019 at 1:32pm CST by Zachary Links

As one of the league’s most feared wide receivers, an extension for A.J. Green should be fairly simple. Unfortunately, after yet another injury-shortened season, the negotiations figure to be a bit complicated. 

On the plus side, Bengals owner Mike Brown has indicated that he wants Green to remain in Cincinnati on a new deal.

“Oh, I think he’s a proven commodity, isn’t he?,” Brown said in March. “The price range for him will be something we can figure out, it will come together. It’s true with anyone, if they suddenly get an injury..it reduces them. Well that changes the equation, but I never plan on that happening. I like to think that won’t happen. If A.J. is healthy, he’s as good a receiver as anybody in the league.”

Ditto for Green:

“Cincinnati is home for me,” Green said recently. “I’ve been here nine years. This is home as much as South Carolina. All I know is Cincinnati. I can’t see myself playing anywhere else or playing in a different city. Hopefully I can be here for a couple more years, so we’ll see on that part.”

Will Green have himself a fat new contract before or soon after his 31st birthday in July? That may depend on his willingness to accept a bit of a hometown discount.

Green has missed 13 games due to injury over the past three seasons and the Bengals, historically, have not been big spenders. They’ve also recently extended teammates Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap, so their flexibility is somewhat limited.

Green finished out the 2018 season with just 46 catches for 694 yards and six touchdowns, but when his nine-game season is adjusted for 16 games, those numbers are right in line with his career 75/1,113/8 average. It’s also worth noting that ’18 was only Green’s second season to fall shy of the 1,000-yard mark. The only other time that happened was in 2016, when he came just 36 yards shy, despite playing in just ten games.

Ultimately, a new deal for Green should put him right around Odell Beckham Jr.’s $18MM average annual value, particularly if fellow receivers Julio Jones and Michael Thomas ink their next deals first. Of course, Green’s deal will be shorter in length than OBJs, or, at the very least, have a much lighter load of guarantees beyond Year 2.

For now, Green is set to enter the final season of his four-year, $60MM contract.

Extension Candidate: Patriots QB Tom Brady

June 25th, 2019 at 11:30am CST by Zachary Links

It’s rare for an NFL player to continue his career into his 40s and even rarer for that player to be up for an extension. But, of course, most players are not like Tom Brady.

The multiple-time Super Bowl champ will be out of contract after the 2019 season after he collects on $27MM in earnings. There’s no conceivable scenario in which Brady leaves the Patriots in free agency, but it remains to be seen how the Patriots will structure Brady’s next contract or when they’ll be able to come to an accord.

Brady will turn 42 in August and the Patriots have no succession plan in place for the future Hall of Famer. Theoretically, they could cuff him with the franchise tag if no agreement can be reached, but it would come at a rate of $32.4MM for the 2020 season (a 20% increase from his current cap figure).

Historically, Brady has given the Patriots significant hometown discounts, but he might not be feeling as generous this time around. Amidst rumblings of discord in Foxboro, the Pats added $5MM in incentives to Brady’s 2018 deal. However, he did not his the statistical markers necessary to realize the full potential of the bonus package.

So, what will a new deal for Brady look like? Although Brady showed some chinks in the armor last year, he could easily make a case to join the $30MM/year club, which currently counts Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Carson Wentz, and Matt Ryan among its members.

Meanwhile, Brady’s last deal inked in 2016 averaged out to just $20.5MM/year. Adjusted for cap inflation, that number would be somewhere around $25MM/year, which would position him as just the tenth-highest paid quarterback in terms of average annual value.

Many expect Brady to settle in at that $25MM per annum figure, but don’t be surprised if the two sides shake hands at the midway point between that number and the star’s true market value.

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