Extension Candidate News & Rumors

Extension Candidate: Rashan Gary

June 28th, 2022 at 11:58am CST by Adam La Rose

After being one of the more hotly-debated draft picks in the 2019 draft, Rashan Gary is eligible for his second NFL contract. Considering the progress he has made in each of his three seasons with the Packers, he could be in line for a more substantial raise than many would have thought when he entered the league.

The 24-year-old spent three years at Michigan, after being one of the top recruits in the country. That led to significant expectations, but Gary didn’t put up the production many other top edge rushers were able to in his draft class in particular. His sophomore season was his best, as he totalled 58 tackles, including 11.5 for a loss, and 5.5 sacks. Overall, he recorded less than 10 sacks during his time in Ann Arbor.

That represented a major red flag for many in the build-up to the draft. PFF rated him much lower than many of the other pass rushers in the class, including his Michigan teammate Chase Winovich. Still, Gary represented a rare combination of size (six-foot-five, 280 pounds) and athleticism which kept him on the first-round radar. It didn’t come as a shock, therefore, when the Packers drafted him with the No. 12 pick.

That made Gary the fourth edge rusher taken off the board, taken behind the likes of Nick Bosa and Josh Allen. He heard his name called earlier than other, more accomplished college sack artists like Brian Burns and Montez Sweat, however, meaning that he was once again entering the next chapter of his football career with significant expectations. The early portion of his NFL tenure didn’t put concerns about his high draft stock at ease.

As a rookie, Gary appeared in all 16 contests, but he didn’t register any starts. Seeing the field for just one-fourth of the team’s defensive snaps, he totalled 21 tackles and a pair of sacks. He saw a larger workload the following season, and responded with a step forward in production, with five sacks. Likewise, his PFF grade rose incrementally, leading to optimism for the 2021 campaign.

With Za’Darius Smith sidelined for all but one game due to injury, Gary took on a full-time starting role this past year. He thrived in it, posting 9.5 sacks and 28 QB hits en route to a top-five edge rush PFF grade of 89. It presented an interesting dichotomy with Winovich, who, after a promising start to his career in New England, failed to record a sack in 2021 and has since been traded to the Browns.

The aforementioned Smith left in free agency this offseason, as Green Bay turned its attention to extending fellow veteran Preston Smith. He and Gary are in line to start once again in 2022, meaning the latter will have the opportunity to repeat his performance from last season. Knowing that, it came as little surprise when the Packers exercised Gary’s fifth-year option, keeping him under contract for the next two campaigns. He will have a cap hit of just over $5MM in 2022, a figure which will jump to $10.9MM the following year.

If he is able to continue his career ascension, Gary will represent one of the better values at the edge rusher position in the league at that cost, as 17 players at that spot currently average at least $15MM per season. Given his relatively late blooming, however, it would be understandable for the Packers to wait at least one more year to begin serious extension talks. The team’s overall financial situation in the near future will also, of course, be an important factor in this situation.

The Packers have more cap space than most teams at this point with respect to 2022, after trading away Davante Adams and restructuring a number of large contracts. However, the outlook is more murky beyond this coming season. Gary will need a new contract no later than 2024, by which point Aaron Jones, David Bakhtiari and Kenny Clark will each be entering the final (non-void) year of their respective deals. How the team handles those pacts will no doubt affect their ability to extend Gary at a significant rate.

Gary is aware of the importance of this season as it relates to his next contract. When speaking on the matter however, he said, via Sports Illustrated’s Bill Huber, “When it comes to money, that’s something I don’t worry about. I’m here to play football and I’m here to be the best player I can for this team.”

Still, he called a lucrative extension a “dream… But I’ve got to keep my head down and work and not look too far ahead or all this talk is just talk.”

Extension Candidate: Jeffery Simmons

June 27th, 2022 at 9:59pm CST by Ely Allen

It’s no secret that Jeffery Simmons is interested in a new contract. The fourth-year defensive tackle staged a “hold-in” at the Titans’ mandatory minicamp this month. A “hold-in” is where a player attends the required sessions without competing in any of the drills. It’s meant to act as a hold-out without triggering any of the fines that would come along with not attending the required sessions.

Now both Simmons and the Titans’ coaches deny that the “hold-in” has anything to do with any contract issues. Titans head coach Mike Vrabel attributed his lack of participation to “the plan laid out by the team” in order for him to be ready for training camp, according to Terry McCormick of TitansInsider.com. Regardless, Simmons and Tennessee are going through the process of determining what the future holds for their union and it will likely require some negotiation.

Tennessee drafted Simmons out of Mississippi State with their first pick of the 2019 NFL Draft. Simmons had a slow start at the pro-level. A torn ACL suffered during draft prep kept him on the reserve/non-football injury list until mid-October of his rookie season. He promptly recorded a sack in his NFL debut, but only finished the season with 2.0 sacks, 4.0 tackles for loss, and 2 quarterback hits.

In his sophomore season, Simmons claimed his role as a full-time starter in the middle of the line, thanks in part to the departure of veteran Jurrell Casey to Denver. In his first full NFL season, Simmons showed improvement in his ability to apply pressure in the backfield with 14 quarterback hits, but struggled to convert those into strong finishes, only totaling 3.0 sacks and 3.0 tackles for loss by the end of the year. He did display a talent for batting balls at the line, a highly sought after trait for defensive linemen, recording 5 passes defensed in his second season.

2021 saw a breakout year for Simmons. Starting all 17 games of the newly-elongated season, Simmons recorded career-highs in sacks (8.5), total tackles (54), tackles for loss (12.0), quarterback hits (16), and passes defensed (6). Simmons was named a Pro Bowler and a second-team All-Pro.

While this was clearly a great season for Simmons, the best of his career, he still has a ways to go to reach the heights of the best athletic defensive tackles in the league. His pass rushing numbers are nowhere near those of the highest paid players at his position such as Aaron Donald, DeForest Buckner, or Chris Jones. Due to the room he still has to grow, it’s hard to imagine a long-term deal for Simmons reaching the heights of $20MM+ like the players listed above.

When looking at what a long-term deal for Simmons might look like, better comparisons would be players like Javon Hargrave, Cameron Heyward, and Jonathan Allen.

Hargrave had been drafted by Washington two years before Simmons entered the league. Hargrave ended up signing an three-year extension with an average annual value (AAV) of $13MM at around the same point in his career that Simmons is in now. While Hargrave’s best season wasn’t quite what Simmons’ is, Hargrave had put together two consecutively strong seasons that led to a bit of a shorter extension but still rewarded his talent.

Heyward had a few more impressive seasons than Simmons when he signed his four-year deal with an AAV of $16.4MM. The reason why Heyward is still comparable despite his superior output is that he was 31-years-old when he signed his contract. His advanced age likely caused a slight drop in his overall value.

Allen may be the best comparison for Simmons’ current situation. 11 months ago, Allen signed a four-year extension with an AAV of $18MM. Allen was 26-years-old when he signed the deal and had two strong seasons with very similar statistics to Simmons’ best year.

With the combination of Simmons’ production and the fact that he’ll turn only 25 next month, an attempt can be made to try and estimate what an extension for him at this point might look like. Considering that the Titans would probably like to hold on to Simmons and that NFL salaries are constantly inflating, a reasonable extension would look something like a four-year, $76MM contract. More generally, expect a three- or four-year deal with an AAV of $18-19.5MM.

Now a new deal is not immediately necessary. Simmons is heading into his fourth year in the league and, as he was a first-round pick, the Titans had a fifth-year option on his rookie-contract which they exercised back in April. Still, the Titans would like to secure Simmons long-term and Simmons would like to cash in on his best season to date, as he’s only set to make $2.2MM on his base salary this year.

Simmons doesn’t have an agent, but instead refers to a “team” meant to deal with his contract. “I’m not talking to (the Titans) about my contract. I have a team in place that, if it is my contract, they’re going to talk to whoever upstairs,” Simmons told McCormick about the negotiation situation. While his contract “team” handles his potential extension, Simmons will be focused on his on-the-field team.

“My job is to be a leader, be a player and not just on the field but in the weight room, the locker room, or whatever it may be,” Simmons pronounced. “I’m on the plan and I’m sticking with it, and I’ll see you guys in camp.”

Extension Candidate: David Montgomery

June 19th, 2022 at 8:59pm CST by Adam La Rose

In recent years, a select number of running backs have received sizeable second contracts. Given his performances early in his career, and his importance to the Bears’ offense, David Montgomery could be the next in line for a new deal.

The 25-year-old had a productive college career at Iowa State. In his final two years in particular, he took on a heavy workload, ranking second and first in the Big 12 in carries in 2017 and 2018, respectively. He put up similar numbers across his sophomore and junior campaigns, totalling 2,362 rushing yards, an additional 453 yards through the air and 24 touchdowns.

That production made him one of the highest-rated backs in the 2019 draft class. He was firmly on Chicago’s radar, and the Bears traded up to N0. 73 to select him. As a result of the Khalil Mack trade, Montgomery represented the team’s top pick that year, something which heightened expectations as he entered the league. During that offseason, the Bears traded away Jordan Howard and signed Mike Davis, teaming the veteran with Tarik Cohen.

Montgomery spent his rookie season splitting snaps with latter in particular. He was still able to start eight games and total over 1,000 scrimmage yards, however. That made it an easy transition for him to take over as a workhorse back in 2020, when Cohen began experiencing the injury troubles which limited him to three games that year, and cost him the entire 2021 campaign. Montgomery had the best season of his career to date, ranking fifth in the NFL with 1,070 rushing yards.

Having demonstrated his abilities both on the ground and in the passing game, expectations were once again high for the five-foot-eleven, 224-pounder heading into 2021. The Bears’ offense still featured Allen Robinson and was in line for a significant change at quarterback, with the team having drafted Justin Fields. Those two never generated the chemistry many were expecting, though, leaving Montgomery as the team’s top offensive weapon once again. He was limited to 13 games due to a knee injury, but still managed to record 1,150 scrimmage yards and score seven touchdowns.

In part because of Montgomery’s production on one hand, and the decided lack of consistently effective players around him on the other, he has accounted for nearly one-quarter of the Bears’ offense during his career. That figure ranks seventh in the league across that span, leaving him (especially in the absence of Robinson, who signed with the Rams in free agency) as the undisputed focal point of Chicago’s attack.

How much the team’s front office – now led by general manager Ryan Poles – is willing to pay him, knowing that fact, becomes a central question. In the absence of an extension being signed this summer, much will depend, of course, on his level of play in 2022 under new head coach Matt Eberflus. Fields is now the unquestioned starter, and is understandably expected to take a significant step forward. As for the backfield, Montgomery will be supported by 2021 sixth-rounder Khalil Herbert (who impressed in his rookie season) and, in all likelihood, Trestan Ebner, whom the team drafted this April.

From a financial standpoint, the running back position has seen a notable upward trend in recent years. A total of eight backs are now under contract for at least $12MM per season, from 2016 draftees Ezekiel Elliott and Derrick Henry to, most recently, Nick Chubb. Given his production, Montgomery may be the likeliest candidate for an extension amongst members of the 2019 class (the other most notable ones being Josh Jacobs, who had his fifth-year option declined by the Raiders, and Miles Sanders, who hasn’t been given as large of a workload by the Eagles).

On the final year of his rookie contract, Montgomery will earn a base salary of $2.8MM, while carrying a slightly higher cap hit. The rebuilding Bears rank third in the league in cap space right now, and first in projected space for 2023, so affording even an above-market extension likely wouldn’t be problematic. As detailed by ESPN’s Courtney Cronin, Montgomery isn’t focusing on his financial future heading into his contract year, however.

“At the end of the day, whether I’m going into my second year or my first year, I’ve still got to play football,” he said. “I could really care less about contracts, the contract terms and things, but I’m excited to be here for another year and play with my guys too.”

Extension Candidate: T.J. Hockenson

June 9th, 2022 at 3:50pm CST by Adam La Rose

Tight ends have been in plenty of headlines this offseason, as the position continues its recent upward financial trend. Aside from the players who were franchise tagged recently, one of the top candidates for a long-term deal is T.J. Hockenson.

The soon-to-be 25-year-old made a name for himself at Iowa, a college which has become a TE factory in recent years. He put up a modest 24 receptions during his first season there, facing stiff competition for targets in the form of Noah Fant. Still, he averaged over 13 yards per catch, a figure which – like all others – he was able to improve upon the following year.

In 2018, Hockenson turned 49 receptions into 760 yards and six touchdowns. Other than the touchdown total, his statistics outshone those of Fant; he also showcased the blocking ability which made him the most well-rounded TE in the 2019 draft class. To little surprise, he was given the Mackey Award at the end of the campaign.

Widely considered a lock to be a top-10 pick, the 6-foot-5, 248-pounder ended up going eighth overall to the Lions. That made him the teams’ intended replacement for Eric Ebron, who had departed one year earlier after four seasons with the team. Hockenson showed promise as a rookie, dropping only two passes on 59 targets. His season came to a premature end, though, due to an ankle injury. Given the potential he flashed, and the central role he began to assume in the team’s offense, expectations were high for his second campaign.

2020 didn’t disappoint. Playing a full season, Hockenson was one of only five tight ends to receive 100 targets, putting up 67 catches (which ranked fourth at the position) for 723 yards (third) and six scores (tied for fifth). His performance backed up his draft pedigree and earned him his lone Pro Bowl nod to date.

Injuries became an issue once again last year, however. Hockenson found himself on season-ending IR in December, this time due to thumb surgery. By that point, he had still posted 583 yards and four touchdowns, cementing his status as Jared Goff’s favorite target. He also registered a career-high 84% snap share, setting up to be a pillar of the team’s offense for at least the next two seasons.

To no surprise, the Lions picked up Hockenson’s fifth-year option in April. That will give him a 2023 salary of $9.39MM, a sizable raise from the earnings of his rookie pact. He is now eligible for further long-term security, though, which should see him join the $10MM-per-year club at the position. Currently, 10 tight ends are at or above that mark (the total rises to 11 if one adds Taysom Hill, whose quarterbacking days with the Saints are believed to be over), including franchise tag recipients Mike Gesicki and Dalton Schultz.

The other TE to be tagged this offseason was David Njoku, whom the Browns have subsequently signed to a four-year, $54.75MM pact. That deal will no doubt loom large in future negotiations, including those between the Lions and Hockenson. Regardless of its weight, though, a sizable new contract could be coming soon for the latter.

Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press reports that “many around the NFL” believe an extension will get done this summer. There is less urgency due to the option, but Hockenson has expressed a willingness to stay in Detroit long-term, saying “I want to [win] here so bad.” Doing so may become more likely, given the ascendancy of receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown late last season, coupled with the additions of former Pro Bowler DJ Chark in free agency and first-rounder Jameson Williams in the draft. Those three may eat into Hockenson’s target share, but they should help boost the team’s overall passing game.

A lucrative deal for Hockenson would mark the second straight offseason in which Detroit locked up one of its best young players. The team signed center Frank Ragnow to a record-setting deal last May, showing general manager Brad Holmes‘ willingness to make long-term commitments as early as possible. That eagerness seems to be reciprocated by Hockenson himself.

“I don’t really know much, [and] I don’t really care to know much” with respect to contract talks, he said. “When that time comes to sign a piece of paper, I’ll do that.”

Extension Candidate: Jordan Poyer

June 5th, 2022 at 10:02pm CST by Ely Allen

Heading into a contract year, Bills safety Jordan Poyer is set to represent a cap hit of $10.78MM on Buffalo’s books for the 2022 NFL season. This provides a rare situation in the NFL where it becomes beneficial for both parties to negotiate towards an extension. At 31-years-old, Poyer can likely find more money and a better fit in Buffalo than he could in free agency and a new contract would give the Bills an opportunity to soften Poyer’s cap hit.

Poyer entered the league as a seventh-round pick for the Eagles in 2013. After being a healthy-scratch in Weeks 5 & 6 for Philadelphia, Poyer was waived, getting claimed off waivers by the Browns two days later. Poyer spent the next three seasons in Cleveland as a backup safety and backup punt returner. He earned four starts in 2015 when starting free safety Tashaun Gipson suffered an ankle injury. When Gipson left in free agency the next offseason, Poyer was named the Browns’ starting free safety going into the 2016 NFL season. After six starts, Poyer was hit by Antonio Andrews with an illegal blindside block while Poyer was covering a punt. Poyer was rushed to the hospital with a lacerated kidney and a possible concussion. He would miss the remainder of the season on injured reserve.

After his recovery, Poyer signed a four-year, $13MM deal with the Bills as a free agent. Bills head coach Sean McDermott named Poyer the starting strong safety alongside fellow-newcomer to Buffalo Micah Hyde, who had just signed as a free agent after four years in Green Bay. This would mark the beginning of a five-year, ongoing stretch as one of the league’s most consistent and effective safety duos.

Poyer and Hyde immediately made their presence known in Buffalo as both recorded five interceptions each in their first year as Bills. Over the last five seasons, Poyer has missed only two games while tallying 18 interceptions and 36 passes defensed. Despite outpacing Hyde for interceptions during their time in Buffalo, Poyer has also played with more versatility with time as a box safety. Poyer has forced six fumbles, recovering six, as well. He’s also added 10.0 sacks and 29.0 tackles for loss in his past five seasons, proving to be a true Swiss army knife in the Bills’ secondary.

Before his initial contract expired, Poyer signed his current two-year, $19.5MM extension, keeping him on the roster through 2022. Before the 2021 season, though, Buffalo and Poyer agreed to rework his contract, converting $5.2MM of his base salary into a signing bonus. The moved saved the Bills $2.6MM in cap space for 2021, but elevated Poyer’s 2022 cap hit from $7.7MM to his current $10.78MM number.

Being one of the older safeties in the NFL, Poyer is likely looking at a two- or three-year extension. Three years would be a very generous offer from the Bills based on knowing Poyer fits in their locker room and crediting him for having one of his best statistical seasons at 30-years-old. A two-year deal is much more likely.

Looking into value, the better safeties in the league are making anywhere from $13MM per year to $16MM per year. Taking his age and past deals into account, I imagine the Bills might offer Poyer something in the range of $12MM-$13.5MM in average annual value. My best guess would have Poyer signing a two-year, $25MM deal that gives him a good amount of guaranteed money.

The Bills have a good thing going with Poyer and Hyde manning centerfield. They haven’t been drafting to replace the duo and have no reason to until their play begins to decline. Vic Carucci of WGRZ in Buffalo thinks that training camp is the perfect time to extend their safety, saying Poyer is “far too valuable to leave him with any feelings of uncertainty about his future in Buffalo.”

Extension Candidate: Roquan Smith

May 31st, 2022 at 1:41pm CST by Sam Robinson

Although the Bears have a new regime in place, one that has gutted the previous staff’s front seven, Roquan Smith‘s status with the organization still appears secure.

One season, at a fifth-year option price of $9.74MM, remains on the linebacker’s rookie contract. New Bears GM Ryan Poles is planning to discuss a Smith extension, per Adam Jahns of The Athletic (subscription required). The prospect of a new deal before the season looms, though it is not a lock.

“I don’t know if that’s how we’re going to handle it, but I would like to,” Poles said, via ESPN.com’s Courtney Cronin. “Obviously the earlier you get to that, the better. But also with a new staff, we may wait a little bit, too.”

The rebuilding Bears no longer have too much money tied to their defense, with several veteran deals coming off their books in March. Smith, who said in April he “absolutely” seeks a long-term Chicago stay, represents the team’s front-seven cornerstone and would make sense as the first big defensive investment for Poles and Matt Eberflus. Though, the off-ball linebacker market has changed considerably since the Ryan Pace regime drafted Smith.

The talented off-ball ‘backer has been a starter since going off the 2018 draft board eighth overall, teaming with Danny Trevathan in Vic Fangio-, Chuck Pagano– and Sean Desai-coordinated 3-4 schemes. The Bears are shifting to a 4-3 alignment under new Eberflus, but teams pay up for defenders’ sub-package usage. Smith, 25, has been a three-down player throughout his career.

Smith is coming off another strong season, one in which he paired 163 tackles with three sacks and a pick-six. He has 14 career sacks and also accumulated 30 tackles for loss over the past two seasons. Smith’s 30 TFLs since 2020 not only lead all off-ball linebackers by a wide margin; that total sits second to only T.J. Watt among all linebackers. While no Pro Bowls appear on Smith’s resume, the four-year veteran has received second-team All-Pro nods in each of the past two years.

Poles has moved four Pace-era extensions off the roster, taking on some dead money to do so. He signed off on cutting Trevathan, a six-year Chicago starter, and nose tackle Eddie Goldman, who was a D-line first-stringer for six years. The Bears traded Khalil Mack, severing ties with the All-Pro edge rusher after four seasons (and taking on $24MM-plus in dead money). Six-year D-end starter Akiem Hicks signed with the Buccaneers on Tuesday. Robert Quinn has been with the Bears two years and broke Richard Dent‘s single-season team sack record in 2021. But the 11-year veteran does not seem a fit on a team that looks unlikely to contend this season. Quinn, 31, is believed to want out. Smith, however, is much younger than his longtime teammates, being squarely in his prime.

Smith’s option price would have been higher were he selected to a Pro Bowl. That promises to come up once the Bears begin negotiations in earnest; so do the second-team All-Pro accolades. The top of the linebacker market moved last year, with Fred Warner ($19MM per year) and Darius Leonard ($19.7MM AAV) using the C.J. Mosley and Bobby Wagner contracts as springboards to raise the ceiling of a positional landscape that looked drastically different prior to Mosley’s 2019 Jets pact ($17MM AAV).

Eberflus’ past with Leonard certainly bodes well for Smith. Still, a gap between the Leonard-Warner-Mosley tier and the field exists. Only two other traditional linebackers — Deion Jones (on a 2019 extension, one that may be shed soon) and ex-teammate Foyesade Oluokun — currently earn at least $14MM per year. The salary cap’s renewed growth, following its second-ever reduction in 2021, also stands to help extension-seeking players this year.

The gaps in between these linebacker salary tiers create some space for Smith’s camp to negotiate while also injecting some uncertainty into the talks. Smith can set his price above Jones ($14.25MM per year), Oluokun ($15MM AAV) and probably Mosley, but it will be interesting to see how the Bears’ new regime values him in comparison to first-team All-Pros Warner and Leonard.

Extension Candidate: Darren Waller

May 30th, 2022 at 11:32am CST by Sam Robinson

Tied to a below-market extension at a position that appears underpaid relative to the value its top talents provide, Darren Waller is playing on one of the NFL’s most team-friendly contracts. Going into his age-30 season, the Raiders tight end is running short on time to cash in.

The veteran pass catcher confirmed his agent and the Raiders have discussed this contract — a four-year, $29.8MM deal signed in 2019 — this offseason. Following David Njoku‘s four-year, $56.75MM deal, Waller’s status was bound to come up. Because of contracts handed out to Njoku and other less accomplished tight ends this offseason, Waller now resides as the NFL’s 17th-highest-paid tight end. He is due nonguaranteed base salaries of $6.25MM in 2022 and ’23.

“My agent is working on that,” Waller said during an appearance on the Ross Tucker Podcast (via Charean Williams of Pro Football Talk). “I understand it, but I know if I focus on it too much, it could take away from my job and learning a new system and just continuing to try to elevate and take care of my body in the right way. I try to focus on those things and let my agent handle that. When decisions need to be made, decisions need to be made.”

The Raiders possess the leverage of having Waller under contract for two more years. They just gave Davante Adams a monster extension and have Hunter Renfrow entering a contract year. At 26, Renfrow is three years younger than Waller. But tight ends with Waller’s pass-catching pedigree are a rarer commodity than effective slot receivers. Waller is one of only eight tight ends in NFL history to have compiled two 1,100-yard years. Current tight end salary kingpin George Kittle is not even on that list.

That said, Josh McDaniels has contributed plenty to Renfrow’s position, seeing Wes Welker turn into an All-Pro and Julian Edelman grow into a quality receiver-turned-Super Bowl MVP under his watch. This might not be an either/or situation between Waller and Renfrow, but considering Adams’ contract and Derek Carr now attached to a short-term deal averaging $40.1MM annually, a Waller-or-Renfrow scenario is a situation to monitor.

Waller has said the right things and has not made this a major issue. He shot down a trade rumor in April, but a report at that time indicated the Raiders are likely a year away from addressing Waller’s deal. That may be too much for Waller to stomach. Although the midcareer breakout player is coming off an 11-game season, he has been the Raiders’ aerial centerpiece since 2019, when the former Baltimore wide receiver’s belated Oakland emergence helped a passing game reeling from the Antonio Brown fiasco.

Players like Will Dissly and C.J. Uzomah, both inking $8MM-per-year deals, each surpassed Waller in AAV this offseason. Njoku’s deal — a $14.2MM pact making the unproven Browns talent the league’s fourth-highest-paid tight end — may have a more notable effect. Njoku has just one 500-yard season in five years. Waller has lapped that production, topping Njoku’s best year even during his 2021 injury-limited campaign. Not unlike Sammy Watkins‘ 2018 deal or Christian Kirk‘s free agency accord this year, the Njoku contract could have a notable effect on the tight end market. How the Cowboys and Dolphins proceed with their respective franchise-tagged tight ends, Dalton Schultz and Mike Gesicki (one 800-yard season between them), stands to affect Waller’s status as well.

The Raiders’ Adams extension, which preceded the Dolphins’ $30MM-AAV Tyreek Hill deal, created a massive gulf between the highest-paid wideouts and Kittle’s $15MM-per-year tight end topper. That strange imbalance adds to the value the Raiders have in Waller, who signed his deal at a time when the Patriots’ wildly team-friendly Rob Gronkowski contract (six years, $54MM) limited other tight ends’ earning power. Rostering Adams while extending Renfrow and keeping Waller on this contract would represent the ideal 2022 Raiders route; that would surely not sit well with their Pro Bowl tight end.

Even at 29, Waller can command a deal in the Kittle ballpark. Were Waller a free agent in March, teams likely would have submitted position-record offers. If the Raiders attempt to move extension talks to 2023, that would hurt the Georgia Tech alum’s value, since he would be negotiating ahead of an age-31 season. Waller has moved past the substance-abuse issues that plagued him with the Ravens, and while the Jon Gruden regime did well to extend the comeback story early, the tight end market’s shift will almost certainly make this contract an issue soon.

The current CBA makes training camp holdouts difficult to wage. Minicamp represents the next chapter here, though no indications have emerged Waller will stay away. Staging a hold-in similar to T.J. Watt‘s maneuver last year is an option; it would be interesting to see how the Raiders’ new regime handles that. A Waller trade would obviously hurt the Raiders’ chances to compete in a stacked AFC West. The Patriots included incentives to appease Gronk late in his New England tenure; would that be enough for Waller in 2022? However this plays out, the situation should produce more headlines before Week 1.

Extension Candidate: Nick Bosa

May 28th, 2022 at 10:18pm CST by Ely Allen

San Francisco is currently home to two of the NFL’s biggest young stars on either side of the ball in wide receiver Deebo Samuel and defensive end Nick Bosa. Samuel has starred in many headlines as he’s pushed for a trade and a new deal. Bosa’s situation, on the other hand, has been a bit quieter, although to be fair, his situation is delayed from Samuel’s by a year due to the fifth-year option provided to him as a first-round pick.

Neither player has been in attendance for OTA’s this year. Samuel’s holdout is directly correlated to his request for an extended contract. Bosa’s absence is likely not related to his contract situation with Matt Barrows of The Athletic claiming that’d “he’d likely (be absent whether) he had a long-term contract or not,” as Bosa and his older brother, Chargers defensive end Joey Bosa, like to work out together back home in Florida. Still, the younger Bosa is due to become one of the highest paid players at his position in the next year or so.

Bosa was the No. 2 overall pick of the 2019 NFL Draft out of Ohio State, beating, by one slot, his brother who was selected third-overall three years prior. Bosa ran away with the Defensive Rookie of the Year award, recording 9.0 sacks, 16.0 tackles for loss, and 25 quarterback hits. He would’ve attended the Pro Bowl as a rookie were it not for his team earning a berth in the league’s season finale. Bosa recorded at least one sack in each postseason game, including a strip sack of Patrick Mahomes in the team’s Super Bowl LIV loss to the Chiefs.

Bosa’s second year ended painfully early when he suffered a torn ACL in a Week 2 game against the Jets. His recovery kept him off the field for the remainder of the season.

Bosa came back with a vengeance last year, earning Pro Bowl honors once again. In his return from injury, Bosa totaled 15.5 sacks, 21.0 tackles for loss, and 32 quarterback hits. His sack total was the fourth-highest in the NFL, his quarterback hits total good for third in the league, and he tied with Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt for most tackles for loss of any NFL player last year.

Behind quarterbacks, wide receivers and pass rushers have competed lately to be the second highest-paid position in the NFL. Premier pass rushers have seen increasingly impressive deals over the last few years, and Bosa’s market is sure to be competitive with the best in the game.

In 2020, Myles Garrett signed a five-year deal with an average annual value (AAV) of $25MM. That same year saw Bosa’s older brother Joey sign a five-year deal with an AAV of $27MM. 2021 saw Watt reach a new AAV-mark for pass rushers when he signed a four-year deal worth $28MM per year, the highest annual amount for any non-quarterback player until eclipsed this offseason by Tyreek Hill‘s $30MM per year. This offseason has also seen veteran Von Miller take a little less for a longer contract, agreeing to a six-year deal with an AAV of $20MM, and Maxx Crosby sign a four-year deal worth $23.5MM per year.

There will be a few factors that contribute to Bosa’s second NFL contract. Bosa’s football history contains nearly two full seasons lost due to injury. Whether or not it’s a fair assessment of his current health, injury history tends to have an impact on negotiations. Working in his favor, though, is the fact that, following his ACL tear in 2020, Bosa had the best season of his young career, displaying a dominance that showed no signs of a lingering injury. In fact, the statistics he recorded last year were among those of the highest-paid players at his position, even though he’s younger and did just return from a major injury. The last factor will depend on the team’s capacity to pay the young star.

All things considered, barring any disasters before a deal is reached, it’s expected that Bosa’s deal will look extremely similar to the competition. He’ll likely sign a four- or five-year contract with an AAV in the range of $27-$30MM. If Bosa once again improves on his previous season, the 49ers could make a statement and make Bosa the first non-quarterback in the NFL to make over $30MM per year. They may use his injury history to give him a lower guaranteed amount or they may make a show of confidence and guarantee the majority of the deal.

The 49ers habitually wait until absolutely necessary to enter into contract negotiations with their players, agreeing to deals with tight end George Kittle and linebacker Fred Warner just before the start of training camp. General manager John Lynch has said that it is absolutely in their plans for Bosa to stay long-term in San Francisco, according to Jennifer Lee Chan of NBC Sports. It’s a fairly drama-free situation.

“At the appropriate time, we will endeavor to make that a reality that he is here for a long time,” Lynch was quoted saying. He finished with a reassuring statement for Niners fans claiming, “It’s all good there.”

Extension Candidate: Nick Chubb

July 12th, 2021 at 7:01pm CST by Sam Robinson

The past year and change reset the NFL’s running back market. After the previous wave of big-ticket contracts produced shaky outcomes — in the cases of Le’Veon Bell, Todd Gurley and David Johnson — a few teams still prioritized their high-end backs and went ahead with extensions.

The 2017 draft class was responsible for most of these accords. Ezekiel Elliott and Derrick Henry are attached to high-value running back deals, but 2017 draftees Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon and Aaron Jones all signed for at least $12MM per year since March 2020. The 2018 draft class is now eligible for extensions, and another backfield mainstay is on track to join the 2017 contingent near the running back salary hierarchy.

Nick Chubb has become the centerpiece of a run-oriented Browns offense that rode its two-pronged ground attack to the playoffs. After playing an essential role in snapping the Browns’ postseason drought, Chubb joins Baker Mayfield, Denzel Ward and guard Wyatt Teller as extension candidates for a rising Cleveland team. With Mayfield and Ward signed through 2022, Chubb may be the team’s top contract priority ahead of the 2021 season.

Negotiations have begun, and a deal being finalized before the start of the season — thus protecting Chubb from a value-changing injury in his contract year — is in play. The Georgia product has become the most reliable back from the 2018 class. While Saquon Barkley may have this group’s highest ceiling, he is coming off ACL and MCL tears. Like Barkley in 2019, Chubb suffered a high ankle sprain. But he returned after four missed games to clear 1,000 yards (1,067) in just 12 contests. The 25-year-old back rushed for a career-high 12 touchdowns and joined Mayfield in leading the Browns to their first divisional-round game since 1994.

The two-time Pro Bowler has proven to be an elite ball carrier, but unlike the 2017 backs given extensions at or north of the $12MM-per-year mark, Chubb is not a major passing-game factor. He has yet to top 300 receiving yards in a season, with the Browns slotting Kareem Hunt as their preferred outlet option among these two. Hunt’s presence complicates Cleveland’s setup here — but only to a point. The Browns signed the embattled ex-Chief to an extension, but the two-year, $13.25MM pact represents midlevel money. Hunt is signed through 2022, but his $6.25MM cap number is both manageable and non-guaranteed. This seemingly keeps a Chubb extension realistic.

Chubb is the leader of Cleveland’s historically talented backfield, outrushing Hunt 1,067-841 last season despite the latter receiving more carries (198-190) during the starter’s injury-shortened season. Although Hunt is a Cleveland-area native, a scenario in which he moves on for a higher-paying RB1 gig elsewhere by 2023 may be likely — unless he is willing to accept a discount to stay a backup.

Henry’s four-year, $50MM deal ($25.5MM guaranteed) profiles a likely Hunt starting point. The Titans also use a run-centric offense, and Henry does not factor into their passing attack much. Chubb (44 career catches at Georgia) has never played a major receiving role, which could keep him off the McCaffrey-Kamara tier (north of $15MM AAV). Then again, the salary cap is set to balloon to nearly $210MM in 2022, perhaps giving Chubb a ladder up to the CMC-Kamara level. Also working in Chubb’s favor: his 680 career carries through three seasons ranks 56th all time and 22nd among backs whose careers started in the 21st century. He should have enough tread on his tires to be productive for the next few seasons.

While the Browns will certainly need to be careful here, the Rams and Jets’ Gurley and Bell missteps are not exactly comparable. Gurley entered the NFL with a knee issue, while Bell had more than 1,200 carries at the time of his free agency pact. Elliott was at 1,003 touches through three years; Chubb exited Year 3 with 752. Hunt staying through 2022 would also stand to shield Chubb from a Bell- or Elliott-like workload.

Either way, it sounds like the Browns will become the rare team with two well-paid backs on their roster soon. A Chubb extension will help establish a Barkley floor as well, should the Giants standout return to full strength this season, while providing the Browns with their most stable long-term backfield situation in decades. Cleveland missed on Trent Richardson, though the franchise did collect a first-rounder for him, and let Isaiah Crowell walk after his rookie deal expired. Chubb certainly appears set for a different northeast Ohio path.

Extension Candidate: Courtland Sutton

July 8th, 2021 at 2:49pm CST by Sam Robinson

Having fully transitioned at wide receiver following the in-season trades of Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, the Broncos have assembled an interesting group of pass catchers. Denver’s quartet consists of a first-rounder (Jerry Jeudy), two second-rounders (Courtland Sutton, K.J. Hamler) and a contract-year UDFA (Tim Patrick) — all tied to rookie contracts or an RFA tender.

Joining Patrick in entering a contract year, Sutton is in line to be the first Broncos wideout to sign a lucrative extension since Sanders’ September 2016 re-up. A Sutton deal would top Thomas’ five-year, $70MM pact as the richest the Broncos have given a receiver. But a few factors complicate the 25-year-old playmaker’s status going into his fourth season, making him one of the more interesting 2021 extension candidates.

Sutton’s rookie-year form prompted the Broncos to trade Thomas, and the SMU product built on that in 2019. Despite Denver using three starting QBs in Sutton’s second year, the jump-ball standout served as the top weapon in an offense lacking other notable targets. The 6-foot-4 pass catcher’s 72-reception, 1,112-yard season — with an aging Joe Flacco, rookie Drew Lock and inexperienced backup Brandon Allen targeting him — garnered a Pro Bowl nod and opened the door to the prospect of an extension.

The Broncos then became the first team since the 2003 Cardinals to select receivers in the first and second rounds of a draft, but Sutton’s ACL tear — after just 31 snaps — changed the club’s plans to have the draftees develop in a Sutton-centered attack. Denver will now give its hopeful Sutton-Jeudy-Hamler trio, with Patrick mixing in, another try.

Since Sutton’s injury, the Broncos hired a new GM. But George Paton identified Sutton as a core player the Broncos want to keep around long-term. They have an opening for a veteran receiver contract, with Jeudy and Hamler not extension-eligible for a while and only one skill-position player — Melvin Gordon, whose roster spot may not be assured — making midlevel money. Sutton’s production with suboptimal quarterback play points to untapped potential for when/if the Broncos acquire a long-term passer.

Waiting makes some sense for both parties. Sutton is not expected to begin camp on the active/PUP list and will be on track to lead or co-lead Denver’s receiving corps this season. The Broncos making an offer before they determine Sutton’s fit alongside the younger receivers in Pat Shurmur‘s offense would be a bit of a gamble, but the team could also reap some value if Sutton wanted to lock in a slightly lower AAV now as protection against a sluggish season following ACL rehab. The Broncos certainly have the cap space to do a deal now or in the fall; their $28MM in room ranks behind only the Jaguars.

An in-season extension could be in play, too. That would make for an interesting middle ground — similar to Garett Bolles‘ November 2020 deal — and avoid a situation where this forces the Broncos to use their franchise tag for a third straight year. Of course, if Sutton proves willing to bet on himself going into a post-injury contract year, it would take a big offer to convince him to bypass a potential free agency bid or — in the more likely scenario — the leverage that comes with being tagged.

Sutton picking up where he left off would be a good problem for the Broncos, who have not featured this kind of depth at receiver since the mid-2010s. This has likely caught the attention of Aaron Rodgers, though that situation has produced little of consequence in months. A return to form would put Sutton on the radar to land a deal in the Kenny Golladay range — four years, $72MM — with perhaps some upside from this salary place, as the cap balloons over $200MM after 2021’s dip.

Sutton’s production alongside Jeudy will illustrate how the Broncos view him. With the fifth-year option allowing the Broncos to table Jeudy’s payday — if the impressive route runner proves worthy — until 2024, a window for a Sutton extension should be open. Given the Rodgers connection and the receiving corps’ new look since Sutton’s last full season, his contract status will be monitoring in the coming weeks and/or months.

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