Denver Broncos News & Rumors

Minor NFL Transactions: 11/27/24

Wednesday’s minor transactions, including some standard gameday practice squad elevations for the Thanksgiving Day slate:

Buffalo Bills

Carolina Panthers

Chicago Bears

Cleveland Browns

  • Designated to return from IR: CB Myles Harden

Dallas Cowboys

Denver Broncos

Detroit Lions

Houston Texans

Los Angeles Rams

Minnesota Vikings

New York Giants

New York Jets

Pittsburgh Steelers

Seattle Seahawks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Vikings’ release of Murphy is disappointing one for the organization for sure. The rookie pass rusher out of UCLA was not healthy enough to be on the active roster to start the season, but Minnesota liked him enough to dedicate one of their eight IR activations on him in August. He was activated yesterday but hit waivers today. If he clears the waivers, he’ll be available to sign to the team’s practice squad.

Adams has seen his biggest NFL roles during his time in Pittsburgh. Though he hasn’t gotten the same number of starts as he had in 2022 and 2023, he’s continued the same level of production. After missing the last four games, he’ll be looking to return to the field soon.

NFL Practice Squad Updates: 11/27/24

Here are Wednesday’s practice squad moves:

Denver Broncos

Minnesota Vikings

Philadelphia Eagles

San Francisco 49ers

Seattle Seahawks

The Vikings used an injury activation on Muse but waived him Tuesday. This will at least keep a player they prioritized via the activation around. A 2022 seventh-round pick, Muse played in 10 games as a Vikings rookie but just five over the past two seasons.

Also waived Tuesday, Throckmorton will end up sticking around as one of the many ex-Saints players and coaches on Sean Payton‘s second Broncos roster. The veteran backup O-lineman joins ex-New Orleans starter Kwon Alexander and 2023 Saints draftee A.T. Perry on Denver’s practice squad, with the likes of Wil Lutz, Adam Trautman, Malcolm Roach, Lil’Jordan Humphrey and Lucas Krull comprising the contingent of former Saints on the Broncos’ 53-man roster.

2024 NFL Dead Money, By Team

The Giants making the decision to waive Daniel Jones, rather than keep him around ahead of a potential 2025 post-June 1 cut designation, changed their dead money outlook for this year and next. Here is how their new total fits in with the rest of the teams’ numbers for dead money — cap space allocated to players no longer on the roster — entering the final third of the regular season. Numbers courtesy of OverTheCap.

  1. Denver Broncos: $85.21MM
  2. New York Giants: $79.57MM
  3. Minnesota Vikings: $69.83MM
  4. Buffalo Bills: $68.47MM
  5. Carolina Panthers: $68.28MM
  6. Green Bay Packers: $65.53MM
  7. Tennessee Titans: $62.89MM
  8. Philadelphia Eagles: $61.95MM
  9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: $60.64MM
  10. New Orleans Saints: $59.44MM
  11. New York Jets: $59.24MM
  12. Los Angeles Chargers: $58.62MM
  13. New England Patriots: $53.37MM
  14. Miami Dolphins: $52.28MM
  15. Seattle Seahawks: $52MM
  16. Jacksonville Jaguars: $51.2MM
  17. Las Vegas Raiders: $49.37MM
  18. Washington Commanders: $42.81MM
  19. Houston Texans: $39.28MM
  20. Cleveland Browns: $38.79MM
  21. Los Angeles Rams: $34.63MM
  22. Detroit Lions: $33.71MM
  23. Pittsburgh Steelers: $30.18MM
  24. Chicago Bears: $29.65MM
  25. Arizona Cardinals: $29.35MM
  26. San Francisco 49ers: $26.91MM
  27. Dallas Cowboys: $26.79MM
  28. Baltimore Ravens: $21.35MM
  29. Kansas City Chiefs: $12.65MM
  30. Indianapolis Colts: $11.8MM
  31. Atlanta Falcons: $11.55MM
  32. Cincinnati Bengals: $9.11MM

The Jones release moved more than $13MM of dead cap onto the Giants’ 2024 payroll. More significantly, the Giants granting Jones an early exit — after a contract-driven benching — will prevent the team from designating him a post-June 1 cut next year. The Giants will take on $22.2MM in dead money in 2025, rather than being able to split that bill over two offseasons. The team also took on more than $10MM in dead money this year due to the 2023 Leonard Williams trade.

This year’s most egregious dead money offender has been known for months. The Broncos’ contract-driven Russell Wilson benching last year preceded a historic release, which saddled the team with more than $83MM in total dead money. A small cap credit is set to come in 2025 (via Wilson’s veteran-minimum Pittsburgh pact), but for this year, $53MM in dead cap hit Denver’s payroll as a result of the the quarterback’s release.

The Broncos more than doubled the previous single-player dead money record, which the Falcons held ($40.5MM) for trading Matt Ryan), and they will be on the hook for the final $30MM-plus in 2025. Beyond Wilson, no other ex-Bronco counts more than $7.5MM in dead money. In terms of total dead cap, however, the Broncos barely check in north of the Buccaneers and Rams’ 2023 totals. Denver is trying to follow those teams’ lead in rallying back to make the playoffs despite nearly a third of its 2024 payroll tied up in dead cap.

Twenty-two players represent dead money for the Saints, who have seen their total updated since the Marshon Lattimore trade. Rather than restructure-crazed GM Mickey Loomis using the Lattimore contract once again to create cap space next year, the Saints will take on the highest non-QB dead money hit in NFL history. Lattimore counts $14MM in that category this year before the contract shifts to a whopping $31.66MM in dead cap on New Orleans’ 2025 payroll. Considering the Saints are again in their own sector for cap trouble next year ($62MM-plus over), the Lattimore trade will create some issues as the team attempts to rebound post-Dennis Allen.

Two 2023 restructures ballooned the Vikings’ figure toward $70MM. Void years on Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter‘s deals combined for more than $43MM in dead money. Minnesota also ate nearly $7MM from the void years on Marcus Davenport‘s one-year contract, while the release of 2022 first-rounder Lewis Cine (currently on the Bills’ practice squad) accounted for more than $5MM.

Free from the Tom Brady dead money that comprised a chunk of their 2023 cap, the Bucs still have eight-figure hits from the Carlton Davis trade and Mike Evans‘ previous contract voiding not long before the sides agreed on a new deal. Elsewhere in the NFC South, three of the players given multiyear deals in 2023 — Vonn Bell, Hayden Hurst, Bradley Bozeman — being moved off the roster in GM Dan Morgan‘s first offseason represent nearly half of Carolina’s dead cap.

 

Broncos Activate LB Drew Sanders

The Broncos have lost both Baron Browning and Alex Singleton, trading the former and seeing the latter land on IR early. A hybrid player ahead of a third-round NFL entrance, Drew Sanders is on track to help an upper-crust defense soon.

Denver is activating Sanders from the reserve/PUP list, 9News’ Mike Klis notes. Sanders has been down since April, having suffered an Achilles tear during the early days of the team’s offseason program. The Broncos waived Greg Dulcich to make room on their roster and have since seen the former third-rounder land with the Giants via waiver claim.

With Sanders coming back, the Broncos needed to clear a spot. As Josh Reynolds moves toward coming off IR, the 7-5 team will need to make another move if it wishes to activate the free agency pickup. The Broncos only have three activations remaining. Fortunately for the team, the Sanders transaction will not count against that total due to the LB being on the PUP list.

Sanders delivered an interesting final college season, displaying versatility by pairing 9.5 sacks with 103 tackles. The Broncos, who had previously moved Browning from an off-ball linebacker role to the edge years ago, have an interesting option in Sanders. They used Sanders as a spot starter last season; the ex-Arkansas and Alabama cog made four starts and played in all 17 games, making 24 tackles and recovering a fumble.

Sanders’ experience both on and off the ball stands to give Vance Joseph options. The team’s latest third-round pick, Jonah Elliss, has settled in as the team’s top rusher off the bench. Elliss has four of Denver’s NFL-high 44 sacks this season, working behind Jonathon Cooper and Nik Bonitto. Sanders’ blitzing experience stands to help there, while Joseph could also opt to use him at ILB due to Singleton’s injury. Justin Strnad has worked as the primary fill-in alongside Cody Barton, though veterans Kwon Alexander and Zach Cunningham remain in the mix at that position as well.

This marks a fairly quick recovery from an Achilles tear, with Sanders following the likes of Cam Akers, Michael Crabtree and Terrell Suggs in coming back after an offseason tear. The Broncos certainly could look to keep Sanders’ workload light due to barely seven months passing since his injury.

Denver waived offensive lineman Calvin Throckmorton as well, pointing to Reynolds’ activation from IR taking place this week. One of a few Saints on Sean Payton‘s second Broncos roster, Throckmorton worked exclusively as a backup this season. A career 27-game starter, Throckmorton played only three offensive snaps this season.

Giants Claim TE Greg Dulcich, Place Azeez Ojulari On IR

Greg Dulcich has not delivered much in the way of production since his rookie year, but the early promise — and a third-round contract — generated expected interest on the waiver wire. The Giants, who hold the top waiver priority, are stepping in.

Months after Darren Waller retired, the Giants did not let the former Broncos tight end fall too far on the wire. They have claimed his through-2025 contract, NFL.com’s Tom Pelissero tweets. Dulcich had been a healthy scratch for an extended period this season; he should have some more opportunities in New York.

The Giants will accommodate Dulcich’s contract by moving one of their top defenders to IR. Azeez Ojulari, amid a bounce-back season, is heading to the injured list, NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport adds. A toe injury will send the contract-year rusher off the roster. Ojulari does not need surgery, but with the Giants down to six games remaining, a chance he is shut down for the season’s remainder also presumably exists. This marks the third straight season Ojulari will land on IR.

Ojulari generated extensive trade interest, but the Giants — as they did with contract-year wide receiver Darius Slayton — stood pat. The former second-round pick arrived under GM Dave Gettleman and saw the Giants make a blockbuster trade (to acquire Brian Burns) to replace him. A Kayvon Thibodeaux wrist injury, however, moved Ojulari back into the starting lineup. He accumulated six sacks this season, helping the Giants reach the NFL lead in sacks for a stretch despite their struggles overall. New York currently sits fifth in sacks, with 36.

Big Blue had sought a fourth- or fifth-round pick for Ojulari at the deadline but held onto him. Ojulari started five games in Thibodeaux’s absence, but the former No. 5 overall pick returned to action in Week 12. The Burns trade and the Giants’ ability to keep Thibodeaux on his rookie deal through 2026 (via the fifth-year option) looks likely to move Ojulari elsewhere in 2025. His production spurt this season should produce a nice market, but injury troubles have become an issue over the course of his career.

Chosen 50th overall out of Georgia, Ojulari posted eight sacks during a promising rookie season. He landed on IR in 2022 and 2023, due to calf and ankle injuries. Ojulari’s 2023 season featured just 2.5 sacks. Ojulari having tallied 22 over the course of his New York run should still make him an attractive piece in free agency, and the Giants — depending on their free agency activity — would stand to pick up a 2026 compensatory selection if/when he departs.

As for Dulcich, his most notable work came two years ago. Despite entering the NFL for a Broncos team trying to make a doomed Nathaniel HackettRussell Wilson partnership work. Dulcich totaled 33 catches for 411 yards and two touchdowns. However, chronic hamstring trouble intervened. Dulcich needed four IR stays combined between 2022 and ’23; three of those came about because of hamstring trouble. Dulcich played only 32 offensive snaps last season, and while he overcame the hamstring issue this year, the Broncos have given their tight end snaps to Adam Trautman and Lucas Krull.

The Giants saw Waller become a New York one-and-done, retiring after another injury-plagued season. The retirement did not come until after the draft, leading the Giants to go into the season shorthanded. The team did draft Theo Johnson in the fourth round and has used him as a 10-game starter. Johnson has 24 receptions for 277 yards this season. Dulcich, 24, has less than $400K left in 2024 salary; he is due a nonguaranteed $1.42MM in 2025.

Updated 2025 NFL Draft Order

The Week 12 slate of games is in the books. For many teams, attention is increasingly turning toward the offseason with a playoff berth no longer in reach.

Plenty of time remains for the draft order to change over the coming months, and it will be interesting to see which teams wind up in position to add at the quarterback spot in particular. The crop of prospects for 2025 is not held in high regard after Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward, meaning the demand for potential franchise passers is set to outweigh demand at the top of the board. Of course, players like Sanders’ Colorado teammate Travis Hunter will be among the ones worth watching closely as well.

The Jets have moved on from head coach Robert Saleh and general manager Joe Douglas, inviting questions about a reset under center as well. Aaron Rodgers wants to play in 2025, but it remains to be seen how his relationship with the organization will take shape down the stretch and if a new regime will prefer to move on at the position. The Giants, meanwhile, confirmed they will be in the market for a new signal-caller with Daniel Jones no longer in the fold.

Teams such as the Raiders have long been mentioned as a team to watch regarding a rookie QB pursuit. Jayden Daniels was a target for head coach Antonio Pierce last spring, and it would come as no surprise if Vegas were to make a push for a long-term starting option this time around. Other franchises not on track to qualify for the playoffs figure to give the Raiders plenty of competition in that department, though.

For non-playoff teams, the draft order will be determined by the inverted 2024 standings — plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule — with playoff squads being slotted by their postseason outcome and regular-season record. Here is an updated look at the current draft order:

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars: 2-9
  2. New York Giants: 2-9
  3. Las Vegas Raiders: 2-9
  4. New England Patriots: 3-9
  5. Carolina Panthers: 3-8
  6. Tennessee Titans: 3-8
  7. New York Jets: 3-8
  8. Cleveland Browns: 3-8
  9. New Orleans Saints: 4-7
  10. Cincinnati Bengals: 4-7
  11. Dallas Cowboys: 4-7
  12. Chicago Bears: 4-7
  13. Indianapolis Colts: 5-7
  14. Miami Dolphins: 5-6
  15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 5-6
  16. Los Angeles Rams: 5-6
  17. San Francisco 49ers: 5-6
  18. Arizona Cardinals: 6-5
  19. Atlanta Falcons: 6-5
  20. Seattle Seahawks: 6-5
  21. Washington Commanders: 7-5
  22. Houston Texans: 7-5
  23. Denver Broncos: 7-5
  24. Los Angeles Chargers: 7-4
  25. Baltimore Ravens: 8-4
  26. Pittsburgh Steelers: 8-3
  27. Green Bay Packers: 8-3
  28. Minnesota Vikings: 9-2
  29. Philadelphia Eagles: 9-2
  30. Buffalo Bills: 9-2
  31. Kansas City Chiefs: 10-1
  32. Detroit Lions: 10-1

Broncos Waive TE Greg Dulcich

Showing promise as a rookie, Greg Dulcich has been unable to replicate that form since. The former third-rounder had surmounted his nagging injury issues this season but has not commandeered a role for the Broncos.

As a result of this and injured players being close to returning to the 53-man roster, 9News’ Mike Klis notes the Broncos are waiving Dulcich. The young tight end’s rookie contract runs through 2025; if no team claims him by 3pm CT on Tuesday, he will hit free agency. The Broncos discussed Dulcich in trades before the deadline but opted to hang onto him.

Dulcich’s injury led to the Broncos receiving little — in terms of aerial production — from their tight end contingent last season, with a hamstring injury and subsequent aggravation leading him to two IR placements. The 24-year-old target played just 32 snaps last season. Although he came back to play 120 this year, the Broncos had dropped him to healthy-scratch status several weeks ago. Despite Denver still receiving little from its tight ends, Sean Payton has not found a place for the third-year pass catcher.

As a rookie breaking into the NFL on a team that featured a disjointed offense — during an ill-fated Nathaniel HackettRussell Wilson partnership — Dulich totaled 420 receiving yards in just 10 games. The Broncos had included previous starter Noah Fant in the Wilson trade that year, and Dulcich profiled as the obvious successor. But hamstring trouble intervened early, as Dulcich both began and ended the 2022 season on IR.

Payton said Dulcich saw hamstring specialists, and he was not a full participant during the Broncos’ offseason program this year. Dulcich returned in time for training camp and started three games this season, but he quickly fell out of favor. Catching only five passes for 28 yards, Dulcich has not been active since Week 4. Denver has used Adam Trautman and Lucas Krull, a former Saints UDFA during Dennis Allen‘s HC tenure, as its primary tight ends since. Neither player has more than 175 yards, with Trautman sitting at 158 to pace the group.

Dulcich will now have an opportunity to revive his career elsewhere, and it sounds like it shouldn’t take long for the tight end to find his next gig. According to ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler, Dulcich should draw some interest on the waiver wire. On the third year of his rookie pact, Dulcich could be more than a temporary rental for any interested squads.

The Broncos are preparing to activate Josh Reynolds from IR and linebacker Drew Sanders from the PUP list. The Dulcich exit will open one roster spot, and while the Broncos could bring him back on their practice squad, a waiver claim preventing that should not be ruled out. Dulcich is due less than $400K in remaining 2024 base salary and is tied to a nonguaranteed $1.42MM number in 2025.

Lions, Dolphins, 49ers, Ravens Expected To Join Mix For Daniel Jones; Bills, Others On Radar?

Daniel Jones saw his Giants tenure end due to poor performance on a four-year, $160MM contract — a deal that included a $23MM 2025 injury guarantee. The latter number led the Giants to bench their longtime starter, and Jones’ remaining base salary will allow him to clear waivers. A lengthy free agency stay is not expected.

While Jones is leaving New York after enduring a wave of scrutiny in the years following Eli Manning‘s retirement, other teams are on track to pursue him. This market could be crowded. In addition to rumored Vikings and Raiders landing spots, ESPN.com’s Adam Schefter names the Ravens as an interested party. Teams’ Week 12 results are expected to influence Jones’ decision, Schefter adds.

Jones is believed to be interested in joining a contender, and Fox Sports’ Jordan Schultz points to several teams outside the NFL’s purple bastions as potential destinations. The Lions, 49ers and Dolphins are also expected to pursue Jones once he hits the open market at 3pm CT Monday. Schultz also mentions Minnesota and Baltimore as teams who will be in the mix for a player who would check in as a high-end backup at the very least this season.

Further adding to what looks like a hot market (in terms of team volume, not price), CBS Sports’ Jonathan Jones first mentions the Bills as a team many around the league point to as a landing spot. Other sources, however, have viewed teams like the Chargers, Broncos and Browns as being in this equation. We are now at nearly a third of the NFL, showing the value a high-quality backup could bring to a team at this juncture.

A landing with a contender makes sense, but Jones will also have a true market should be hit free agency in 2025. With Jonathan Jones noting a deal for the sixth-year vet now will be for the prorated $1.1MM veteran minimum — with the Giants still owing Daniel Jones $13.81MM in guaranteed 2024 salary — a team could get a jump on the QB’s 2025 market by landing him now. On that note, NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport adds the Raiders are believed to like Jones as a player. With Las Vegas set to shop for a quarterback again in 2025, an early audition now would be a way to conduct a more thorough evaluation. That said, Jones having many potential options and seeking a contender now would stand to impede the Raiders here.

The Lions have seen Jared Goff display durability since missing three games in 2021, but the team is carrying only developmental second-year player Hendon Hooker on its active roster behind its recently extended starter. No quarterback resides on Detroit’s practice squad. Staying in the NFC North, Minnesota does carry two active-roster backups (Nick Mullens, Brett Rypien); Jones would mark an insurance upgrade — though, joining a system in late November will be a challenge, Joe Flacco‘s 2023 Cleveland surge notwithstanding — by comparison.

Jones will count toward the 2025 compensatory formula, as ESPN.com’s Field Yates adds, helping to explain the Ravens’ interest. Not only has Baltimore dealt with several Lamar Jackson absences in recent years, the team has long benefited from its interest in comp picks. Jones would be in position, depending on a team’s 2025 free agency activity, to net a club a Day 3 choice if he again switches cities come March. With the Dolphins having added Tyler Huntley off the Ravens’ practice squad earlier this season, 38-year-old Josh Johnson stands as Jackson’s top backup.

Miami has obviously dealt with more concerning health issues with its starter, with Tua Tagovailoa‘s concussion trouble set to be a central storyline in Miami for the foreseeable future. Huntley is on IR, leaving Skylar Thompson — who proved overmatched when given the keys earlier this season — as the team’s only backup on its 53-man roster. The Bills have Mitch Trubisky as Josh Allen insurance, though the MVP frontrunner has not needed such protection due to a durable run. Allen’s run-game usage, however, invites risk, and many within the league view Buffalo — thanks to Brian Daboll having brought the Bills’ system to the Big Apple — as a live option here.

While Jones would upgrade the Broncos’ QB room, Sean Payton tampering with what has become a promising Bo Nix setup would be an interesting dice roll. The Chargers also obtained Taylor Heinicke via trade to bolster their depth chart behind Justin Herbert. The AFC West clubs are contending teams, however, presenting a draw the Raiders currently do not. Las Vegas does bring a wild card as a team that could use an immediate starter, thanks to Antonio Pierce‘s Gardner Minshew benching habit.

Lastly, the 49ers would offer considerable intrigue due to Brock Purdy‘s shoulder injury. The team ruled out Purdy for Week 12, though the blossoming starter is in play to return in Week 13. Jones, 27, would still stand to be interested in joining Kyle Shanahan‘s team due to the coach’s play-calling acumen. Following the likes of Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold as a late-season addition who parlayed a West Coast Offense stopover into a future starting role would naturally appeal, and Jones would in turn give San Francisco more cover than Brandon Allen and Josh Dobbs.

The Giants would pick up a small offset based on Jones’ vet-minimum salary this year, but they will still be on the hook to see all $22.2MM of his through-2026 contract hit the books next year. As Tommy DeVito prepares to return to New York’s starting lineup, the Jones market has become an interesting storyline. One team will receive an unexpected upgrade soon, with another Jones free agency trip likely come March.

Minor NFL Transactions: 11/23/24

Saturday’s minor moves, including gameday elevations for Week 12:

Arizona Cardinals

Chicago Bears

Denver Broncos

Houston Texans

Kansas City Chiefs

Las Vegas Raiders

Los Angeles Rams

Miami Dolphins

Minnesota Vikings

New England Patriots

San Francisco 49ers

Seattle Seahawks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tennessee Titans

Washington Commanders

Poll: Who Will Secure AFC’s Third Wild-Card Spot?

Late-season collapses certainly occur, with injuries obviously playing key roles in contenders’ blueprints. As it stands now, however, the AFC playoff picture is top-heavy. It is quite possible the stretch run will feature division leaders jockeying for seeding and two wild-card teams hovering over the race for the bottom bracket slot.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Chargers a 94.7% chance to make the playoffs, with the AFC North holding a strong likelihood of producing a wild-card squad as well. Both the Steelers and Ravens’ chances sit north of 95%. Although the volume of sub-.500 AFC teams could drain drama from this year’s fight to wear white in Round 1, the conference does have a handful of teams on the fringe who appear poised for a battle to claim the No. 7 seed.

Six AFC teams have eight or nine losses entering Week 12. While the 2008 Chargers started 5-8 and erased a three-game division deficit with three to play, the odds are stacked against the conference’s bottom tier (Patriots, Jets, Browns, Jaguars, Titans, Raiders). This leaves four teams in between.

The Broncos have not made a postseason appearance since winning Super Bowl 50. Considering the Russell Wilson release brought a two-offseason dead money number unlike anything the NFL has seen, Denver snapping that drought this year was not expected. Wilson counts for $53MM on Denver’s 2024 payroll, with the club taking on the larger portion of the dead money this year ($30MM-plus is on the books for next year, as a small cap credit from the QB’s Steelers pact awaits). But Sean Payton‘s team is 6-5 and holds a, per FPI, 50.3% chance of making the playoffs.

Although the Broncos kept costs low and also moved on from Justin Simmons and Jerry Jeudy, they resisted Courtland Sutton trade offers — including a third-rounder from the 49ers in August — and assembled an interesting roster around No. 12 overall pick Bo Nix. The Oregon alum’s progress defines Denver’s season, as the team appears close to identifying a surefire long-term quarterback. The franchise has not seen a QB start more than four seasons since John Elway, amplifying the interest in Nix’s sudden entrance into the Offensive Rookie of the Year race, but Vance Joseph‘s defense has proven better than expected.

Extending Patrick Surtain in September and paying Jonathon Cooper just before trading Baron Browning, Denver sits third in scoring defense and third in yardage. The team leads the NFL with 39 sacks. This has given Nix important support during his maiden NFL voyage.

Defense has conversely burned the 4-7 Bengals, who are squandering MVP-caliber work from Joe Burrow. Back from a season-ending wrist injury, Burrow has thrown an NFL-most 27 touchdown passes (compared to four interceptions) and has done so despite franchise-tagged wideout Tee Higgins missing five games. The Bengals are not expected to pay Higgins, with a 2025 tag-and-trade perhaps all that is left on the contract front between the parties after no substantial talks have taken place since early 2023, but Ja’Marr Chase‘s extension price — a matter tabled to 2025 — will rise coming out of this season.

Chase’s 1,056 yards pace the NFL by more than 100. A defense that had been solid during the team’s 2021 and ’22 seasons has fallen off. Cincinnati augmented its defense by adding Sheldon Rankins and Geno Stone while reacquiring Vonn Bell, but Lou Anarumo‘s unit ranks 28th. FPI gives the Bengals a 14.8% chance to make the playoffs. While this is almost definitely the highest-ceiling team left on the AFC’s fringe, a team that entered the year with Super Bowl aspirations in the expected Burrow-Chase-Higgins trio’s final act together runs the risk of missing the postseason entirely.

Sitting at 4-6, the Dolphins carry a 13.6% qualification chance, per FPI. Mike McDaniel‘s team is here largely due to Tua Tagovailoa‘s concussion-driven IR stay; the Dolphins went 1-3 without their recently extended starter. Tagovailoa’s absence reduced an offense that had led the NFL in yardage last season to one of the league’s worst.

Even as Tagovailoa has returned, neither Tyreek Hill nor Jaylen Waddle has taken off. The Dolphins paid both this offseason, reworking Hill’s contract and extending Waddle in a deal that delivered the younger WR a better guarantee than Hill received via his 2022 extension. Through 10 games, Waddle is at 404 yards. Hill, who topped 1,700 in each of his two full Dolphins slates, has accumulated just 523.

As Miami’s elite wideout tandem will need to heat up soon for the team to have a chance at a third straight playoff berth — something the club has not accomplished since a five-year run from 1997-2001 — its defense is again without Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb. Phillips suffered a season-ending knee injury, while Chubb has not recovered from the ACL tear that ended his 2023 season on New Year’s Eve. No Dolphin has more than four sacks or eight QB hits, with 38-year-old Calais Campbell — whom the Dolphins nearly traded back to the Ravens at the deadline — proving valuable in a four-sack start in his Miami return.

The Colts are 5-6, and FPI gives them the second-best odds (34.2%) of this bunch. Quarterback play, of course, has defined Indianapolis’ season. The team’s about-face with Anthony Richardson reminds came after a historically early benching involving a top-five pick, as the 2023 fourth overall choice had started only 10 games when benched.

Still, Richardson’s accuracy problems threaten to derail the Colts, who had gone to Joe Flacco in an attempt to better position themselves for a playoff push. After Flacco lost the ensuing two starts, Richardson is back. While the raw prospect looked better in his return start, he still carries a 48.5% completion rate. Only six QBs who have attempted at least 200 passes have finished south of 50% in a season this century.

GM Chris Ballard mostly just paid to keep his core together this offseason, though waiver claim Samuel Womack has helped a depleted boundary cornerback group. The Colts rank both 19th in scoring and points allowed, and while other components on this roster obviously matter, Richardson’s development still overshadows their season’s second half. That represents perhaps the biggest X-factor among this middle-class AFC glut.

Assuming the Chargers stay afloat and the Steelers and Ravens do not collapse, who do you think will claim the conference’s final spot in the seven-team field? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on the race in the comments section.