While the Panthers, Cardinals and Commanders continued their losing ways in Week 16, the Patriots’ effort in Denver shook up the top of the 2024 draft. New England has dropped from second to fourth in the ’24 order.
In a strange spot in which Broncos fans and and undoubtedly many Pats supporters wanted the Russell Wilson-driven comeback to succeed, Chad Ryland‘s 56-yard game-winning field goal dropped New England out of the No. 2 spot, injecting doubt about the team’s ability to nab a top-flight QB prospect without trading up next year.
The Bears (via the Panthers) remain atop the table, holding a one-game lead on the Cardinals. Carolina closes its season with two games against eight-win teams — the Jaguars and Buccaneers. Arizona will face Philadelphia and Seattle, and with Carolina’s strength of schedule at .522 and Arizona’s at .561, the draft-order tiebreaker reaffirms the Bears’ placement on the doorstep of entering a second straight offseason holding a No. 1 overall pick. The Justin Fields matter remains an important big-picture NFL topic, but GM Ryan Poles is close to having his pick of the 2024 QB prospects.
It is not clear if the Commanders will be interested in a quarterback in the first round, but they will have a new regime running the show. The last time Washington held a top-three pick (2020), it passed on Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert due to having drafted Dwayne Haskins in the 2019 first round. With Sam Howell struggling as of late, Josh Harris‘ next set of decision-makers may want to bring in their own prospect. The Cardinals could stand in the Commanders’ way, via another trade in the top three, but suddenly Washington could be a player for a 2024 first-round QB.
Ahead of Week 17, here is how the 2024 draft order looks:
The Bills will not have depth running back Ty Johnson available for tonight’s game, leading to the decision to elevate Fournette. The former Super Bowl champion will thus make his Buffalo debut, although with lead back James Cook in the lineup, Fournette will likely not receive many looks on offense. The latter has already returned a kickoff for the first time in his career, however.
Signed to the Dolphins’ practice squad last week, Ingram will also make his 2023 debut in Week 16. The 34-year-old last played during his Miami stint in 2022, during which time he started three games and recorded six sacks. With Jaelan Phillips out for the year, Ingram will look to once again give the Dolphins a rotational presence off the edge.
The Panthers’ Week 15 win over the Falcons brought the Patriots and Cardinals, who each lost, one game closer to the No. 1 overall pick. New England’s weaker strength of schedule provides keeps Arizona in the No. 3 spot, while Washington — weeks away from a likely full-scale reboot — has lost five straight to move into position for its first top-five pick since 2020.
Early reports have the Bears more likely to draftJustin Fields‘ replacement than trading a top pick once again, but the Patriots and Cardinals are still in the running for what could well be the Caleb Williamsdraft slot. Much less drama would emerge if New England claimed the top pick, as the Patriots would be expected to draft the top QB prize. Arizona landing atop the draft for the second time in six years could produce a derby, with Kyler Murray‘s contract difficult (but not impossible) to move for new GM Monti Ossenfort. QB-needy teams may well be hoping the Cardinals land one of the top two spots, however, providing a potential gateway to a trade-up for Williams or Drake Maye.
The Raiders’ 63-21 demolition of the Chargers slid them down six spots compared to their position last week. The Packers also climbed eight spots from their slot going into Week 15. Green Bay has not held a top-11 draft choice since it drafted B.J. Raji in the 2009 first round; that came on the heels of Aaron Rodgers‘ first season at the helm. Jordan Love‘s QB1 debut season could still produce a playoff berth, however, and the rest of the NFC and AFC wild-card races remain tightly bunched.
Here is how the 2024 draft order looks with three regular-season games to play:
December 17th, 2023 at 10:20pm CST by Adam La Rose
Given the NFL’s recent switch to a seven-team playoff format, claiming the No. 1 seed in each conference (and with it the lone bye in the wild-card round) carries particular significance. In the case of the NFC, a shortlist of teams will compete for the top spot over the final four weeks of the season.
Three of them – the 49ers, Cowboys and Eagles – entered Sunday at 10-3, though one member of the latter pair will be saddled with the No. 5 seed after finishing as the runner-up in the NFC East. The 49ers’ win over the Cardinals and Cowboys’ loss to the Bills separates San Francisco for the time being. The Lions, meanwhile, improved to 10-4 after their impressive showing on Saturday. Detroit will have work to do to overtake the conference’s other three heavyweights, but changes atop the standings could take place over the following month.
San Francisco currently leads the way, and owning the head-to-head tiebreaker against both Philadelphia and Dallas (by virtue of blowout victories) will help down the stretch. The 49ers’ commitment to Brock Purdyunder center has proven to be sound, as last year’s Mr. Irrelevant has improved on his rookie output. Purdy leads the NFL not only in completion percentage (70.2%) but also yards per attempt (9.9) and passer rating (116.9) while playing with arguably the league’s top skill-position group.
The 49ers’ offense (led by Purdy and fellow MVP candidate Christian McCaffrey) has shown itself to be an elite unit, as expected, this season. The team’s defense has also recovered from a downturn during their three-game losing streak. The trade deadline acquisition of Chase Youngadded to San Francisco’s front seven, but injuries in the secondary have left the 49ers in need of other in-season additions. A reunion with Jason Verrett and the signing of Logan Ryanhas given San Francisco a pair of veteran defensive backs to at least serve as depth on the backend. Only the 49ers’ Christmas Day game against the Ravens will see them face an opponent currently over .500 the rest of the way.
The Cowboys split the season series with the Eagles, allowing them to own the tiebreaker for the time being. A more daunting path awaits Dallas to close out the campaign, however, with road games against the Bills and Dolphins followed by a crucial matchup against the Lions. The Cowboys’ offense especially has proven to be one of the league’s best units this season, however, led by Dak Prescott. In line for an extension this offseason, the 30-year-old leads the NFL with 28 touchdown passes, and his passer rating sits at a career-high 107.5.
While those figures have Prescott in the MVP conversation and in line for a raise on his next pact, judgement of the Cowboys will of course depend on their postseason showing. The fate of head coach Mike McCarthy has been a talking point for some time now, owing in large part to the team’s inability to break through in the playoffs during his tenure. He could be in store for a new contract, however, especially if 2023 were to produce a deep run toward a Super Bowl. Given Dallas’ impressive home winning streak, securing the top seed could be imperative in that effort.
The Eagles enjoyed a strong start to the campaign, but consecutive losses have led to questions on the defensive side of the ball in particular (and now prompted a signficant change on the sidelines, with Matt Patricia assuming play-calling duties). That unit was affected more than the offense in the offseason exodus of talent following Philadelphia’s run to the Super Bowl, and the inside linebacker spot has drawn attention recently. The Eagles won out the competition to add Shaquille Leonardafter his sudden Colts departure, giving them a former All-Pro in the second level. Â
Leonard played sparingly in his Philadelphia debut (which fittingly came in Dallas after the Cowboys finished as the runners-up in the pursuit to sign him). Regardless of the role he plays down the stretch, Philadelphia could be in line for a rebound from the team’s recent showing. The Eagles play the Giants twice in the season’s final three weeks, and despite New York’s current winning streak, Philadelphia’s upcoming Monday night game against the 6-7 Seahawks will likely prove to be the strongest remaining challenge.
After a strong late-season run to close out the 2022 campaign, the Lions entered this season with the team’s highest expectations in years. For the most part, Detroit has lived up to the hype so far. Impressive performances from a number of contributors (including rookies Jahmyr Gibbsand Sam LaPorta) on offense has confirmed OC Ben Johnson’ status as one of the hottest head coach candidates for the upcoming hiring cycle. The 37-year-old drew interest last year before committing to a second campaign in the Motor City, but he has already been linked to multiple current vacancies.
Of course, the Lions’ offensive success has the chance of complicating quarterback Jared Goff’s future with the team. The former No. 1 pick has one year (and no guaranteed salary) remaining on his deal and Detroit drafted a potential successor this April in the form of Hendon Hooker. Goff leads the league in passing yards (3,727) entering Sunday’s action, however, and he could be playing his way into a new contract. The Lions, like the Eagles, will likely need to rely on their offense to overcome defensive shortcomings down the stretch. Games against the division-rival Vikings await the NFC North leaders with the aforementioned Cowboys contest in between.
One notable free agent who could help tip the scales is Zach Ertz. The veteran tight end asked for and was granted his Cardinals release, leaving him free to join a contender. Several teams could stand to add the three-time Pro Bowler, and the 49ers are believed to be interested in making him part of an already deep pass-catching corps. To no surprise, a reunion with the Eagles could also be in store. Both San Francisco and Philadelphia will have competition (from each conference) to land Ertz, however.
With the 49ers, Cowboys and Eagles set to play their respective Week 15 matchups today and tomorrow, how do you see the race to the No. 1 seed playing out? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and leave your thoughts in the comments section below:
Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy is under contract through 2024, and it stands to reason that the team would not want him to go into the 2024 campaign as a lame duck. To that end, Ian Rapoport of NFL.com says McCarthy is in line for an extension in the offseason.
When asked about the possibility of such an extension at last week’s league meetings, owner Jerry Jones said, “[t]hat’ll have a course that seeks its own time frame. I don’t do anything of that sort until the season is over.”
That hardly sounds like a guarantee that a new deal will be consummated in the coming months, but it is nonetheless difficult to imagine any other outcome. McCarthy bet on himself to a degree by parting ways with former offensive coordinator Kellen Moore this past offseason and taking over play-calling responsibilities, and that decision could not have gone much better for him. Under McCarthy’s watch, quarterback Dak Prescott is enjoying the finest season of his career and is firmly in the MVP discussion — thereby setting himself up for a lucrative extension of his own — and the Cowboys presently rank first in scoring offense, fourth in total offense, and sixth in offensive DVOA.
As Rapoport observes, McCarthy’s job security is always a talking point in Dallas, and merely qualifying for the playoffs has not compelled Jones to retain a head coach in the past. Before last season’s playoffs got underway, however, Jones unequivocally stated that the outcome of the postseason contests would not influence his decision with respect to McCarthy, and while the Cowboys were ousted by the 49ers for the second consecutive year, there were no serious rumblings that McCarthy’s job was in jeopardy.
Last month, Peter King of NBC Sports suggested that Jones — who was long rumored to covet Sean Payton for Dallas’ HC post — might make a run at current Patriots head coach Bill Belichick if Belichick should, as expected, become available in the offseason. King said that in order for Belichick or any other candidate to become a serious consideration for Jones, the Cowboys would have to lose the NFC East, have a questionable showing or two down the stretch of the regular season, and go winless in the playoffs.
Since King’s piece was published, the Cowboys have rattled off four straight victories to bring their current win streak to five and their record to 10-3. That stretch includes a 33-13 thumping of the division-rival Eagles last week, and while Philadelphia (also 10-3) has the easier schedule over the last four games of the season, Dallas currently has momentum on its side.
Over his first three-plus seasons with the Cowboys, McCarthy has compiled a 40-23 regular season record and a 1-2 mark in the playoffs. Of course, he spent the better part of 13 seasons as the Packers’ head coach, capturing a Lombardi Trophy during his tenure in Green Bay.
Wilkinson returned to practice this week, and will be eligible to return to the lineup on Sunday given today’s activation. The addition of a starter up front will be welcomed by the Cardinals by giving them stability at the left guard spot in particular and by providing an upgrade in protection ahead of a matchup against the stout 49ers defensive front in general. The Cardinals now have four IR activations remaining.
Street was acquired from the Eagles at the trade deadline after he failed to find playing time this season. The 27-year-old has started all five of his appearances in Atlanta, however, racking up 14 tackles (including four for a loss) and one sack. Those numbers will help his free agent market this offseason, but a pectoral injury will sideline him for at least four weeks. If the Falcons fall short of the postseason, therefore, Street will not return in 2023.
McCain was a full-time starter with the Commanders over the past two seasons, but his release led to a one-year Giants agreement. The former fifth-rounder has 87 starts to his name, but he has been unable to carve out a role in New York’s secondary, playing only 19 defensive snaps. McCain has logged a 50% snap share on special teams, however, so his absence in the third phase will be notable if he is claimed off waivers or signed as a free agent by an interested team.
For what it’s worth, free agent linebacker Rolando McClain is officially available to sign after spending a total of almost eight years under an indefinite suspension from the NFL. Per ESPN’s Field Yates, the former No. 8 overall pick of the 2010 NFL Draft had his suspension lifted by the league today.
The former first-round pick showed a lot of promise coming out of Alabama a year early but saw his career derailed by a series of off-field incidents. These extracurricular activities, combined with an ineffectiveness on the field, led to the Raiders waiving him after the third year of his rookie deal. The Ravens signed him on a low-risk, high-reward one-year contract, but McClain would announce his retirement before the season began at the age of 23.
He was coaxed out of retirement a year later, when the Cowboys opted to obtain his rights from the Ravens in a trade, and McClain seemingly had an opportunity to revamp his career as he became a leader in Dallas. He received a four-game suspension for substance abuse issues in 2015, but overall, McClain had a productive two years on the Cowboys defense. That suspension would serve as a harbinger, though, as the NFL would levy a 10-game suspension for the same issue in the 2016 offseason.
That final suspension is that one that is ending now, after nearly four additional years. The transaction is largely nominal, as McClain is now 34 years old and hasn’t played football at a professional level in over eight years. His return in 2016 was nearly impossible; a return now, is even further from reality. As far as the NFL is concerned, though, McClain no longer resides on the no-fly list.
Agnew has missed the four games required to return from injured reserve, and though he’s not been activated yet, the Jaguars took the first step towards that outcome today in returning him to practice. It was shoulder and rib injuries that led to the return specialist’s placement on IR. During his absence the team had turned to rookie sixth-round receiver Parker Washington to return punts and veteran backup running back D’Ernest Johnson to return kickoffs. Jacksonville still has a few days to determine whether or not they’ll activate him right away for this weekend. If not, the team will have 21 days to activate him before his practice window closes and Agnew is reverted to season-ending IR.
Two different teams have held the No. 1 overall pick in consecutive years since 2017. Amid a radical rebuild effort, the Browns carried the top pick into the 2017 and ’18 drafts. The Jaguars did the same in 2021 and ’22. It is possible the Bears will follow that up in back-to-back years. The big difference here would be the Bears traded the 2023 top choice and may unload the 2024 top pick for another windfall, depending on their evaluation of Justin Fields.
The Bears and Panthers’ March trade, giving Carolina access to Bryce Young, has become a seminal moment for both teams. As it stands now, Chicago holds two top-five picks. The Panthers are 1-12, giving the Bears a two-game lead on the Patriots and Cardinals for the top slot with four games left. Chicago finishing with the first overall selection, providing access to the quarterback of its choice, would create a big-picture decision for a Bears team that already passed on the 2023 quarterback class to stick with Fields — a QB the Ryan Poles regime did not draft. North Carolina’s Drake Mayehas declared for the draft, while USC’s Caleb Williamsis widely expected to follow suit.
A new Cardinals regime is also evaluating its QB, though Kyler Murray‘s $46.1MM-per-year contract (which runs through 2028) will be much harder to escape compared to Fields’. This creates an interesting scenario that will have teams who do not land two-two draft slots monitoring how Chicago and Arizona proceed. The Patriots are widely expected to pursue a quarterback in the draft, and they are likely to do so withoutBill Belichick.
With gridlock forming in the AFC and NFC wild-card races, considerable movement will take place over the next month. The winner of the NFC South will likely lose several spots in the ’24 draft, as the Buccaneers did this year by winning the ’22 division title at 8-9. Here is how the draft order looks going into Week 15:
