Here are Wednesday’s minor moves:
Chicago Bears
Cleveland Browns
Dallas Cowboys
Miami Dolphins
Once again, the NFC has presented more depth this season. Two current non-division-leading teams have eight wins, raising the floor for what it will take to bring road whites to a postseason game in that conference. The AFC has a few obvious contenders, but several teams can be included on “In the hunt” graphics despite .500-or-worse records.
Prior to seeing the Colts start 1-5 and make the playoffs last season, the AFC saw the 1-5 2015 Chiefs go 11-5. This season may not feature a second-half surge on that level, but the conference has a few teams occupying its middle class that are not yet building for the future.
If the season ended today, two teams in the 6-4 Colts-Texans-Raiders contingent would make the playoffs. But the Titans (5-5), Steelers (5-5), Browns (4-6) and Jaguars (4-6) are still technically in the race. Of the 163 teams to start 4-6 in the six-team playoff era (1990-present), only 13 (8%) made the playoffs. That number jumps up to 29% (40-for-138) for 5-5 teams.
Tennessee, which benched Marcus Mariota during a 16-0 shutout loss in Denver, has rallied under Ryan Tannehill. The former Dolphins starter has completed 71% of his passes and has helped the Titans to wins in three of his four starts. The Titans rank fourth in run-defense DVOA but among these fringe contenders sport the lowest overall DVOA ranking (23rd), though some of that stems from Mariota’s starts. Tennessee is also this quartet’s only team with a positive point differential at plus-6. (The Raiders, for reference, have a minus-25 differential.) The Titans close their season with five winning teams on their schedule — by far the toughest among this group.
The Steelers and Browns each play two teams with winning records apiece down the stretch. Neither has presented a particularly formidable passing attack, the latter’s struggles representing one of this season’s biggest surprises given Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry being on Baker Mayfield‘s side. An offense-geared team for the past several years, Pittsburgh ranks third in defense DVOA and 28th offensively. But will the T.J. Watt– and Minkah Fitzpatrick-powered unit be enough to aid Mason Rudolph (31st in Total QBR) to any kind of relevant stretch run? The Browns have won two straight and have three games left against the Bengals and Dolphins, but Freddie Kitchens‘ team has proven to be unreliable and undisciplined. And that was with former defensive player of the year candidate Myles Garrett, who is likely out for the season’s remainder.
Although the Jaguars may look like the longest-odds team here, they outflank each of these mid-pack outfits with a No. 16 DVOA ranking. Most of that work came with Gardner Minshew at quarterback, but three of the Jags’ wins came against the Bengals, Jets and Broncos. Jacksonville also has yielded 200-plus rushing yards on three occasions, undercutting D.J. Chark‘s breakout season and Leonard Fournette‘s bounce-back effort somewhat. But Jacksonville also faces just two teams with winning records (Oakland, Indianapolis) down the stretch. Nick Foles also has a notable history of late-season rallies.
With the Bills already 7-3 and the Raiders playing just one team with a winning record the rest of the way, this year’s AFC might be feature a thinner playoff pursuit. But which of these aforementioned teams has the best chance of staying in the playoff race well into December? Vote in PFR’s latest poll (link for app users) and weigh in with your thoughts on this year’s playoff race in the comments section.
While the outcome of Myles Garrett‘s appeal is not yet known, the Browns will be without Larry Ogunjobi against the Dolphins on Sunday.
The NFL upheld the one-game suspension it handed down to the third-year Cleveland defensive tackle. Ogunjobi was suspended for his role in the game-ending melee against the Steelers, which featured him shoving Mason Rudolph to the ground after the quarterback and Garrett got into it.
The verdicts on Garrett and Steelers center Maurkice Pouncey will not emerge until later this week, per Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (on Twitter). Garrett received an indefinite suspension that is expected to end his season, while Pouncey is slated to be out three games for his role in the fight. The league did rescind Ogunjobi’s $10K fine, however.
While Garrett’s absence will overshadow it, the loss of Ogunjobi will certainly affect the Browns. The ex-Day 3 pick has five sacks, a half-sack shy of his career high. He dropped Rudolph during last week’s game.
With Garrett and Ogunjobi sidelined, it’s possible the Browns have just one defensive line starter available Sunday. Olivier Vernon missed the past two games with a knee injury. A third straight absence would leave only Sheldon Richardson in place up front.
Browns tight end David Njoku has been designated to return from injured reserve and will return to practice today, according to Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com. Njoku had been out with a concussion and broken wrist he suffered in Cleveland’s Week 2 win against the Jets.
Njoku had been expected to return from injured reserve at some point this season, but he first had to get through the league’s concussion protocol and rehab his wrist. The team plans to remain cautious with the third-year tight end and does not plan to play him this Sunday against the Steelers unless he looks fantastic in practice, according to Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.
Prior to this injury, Njoku had played in 34 consecutive games for the Browns since they selected him 29th overall in the 2017 NFL Draft. Like the entire Cleveland organization, the young tight end appeared poised for a breakout after a solid 2018 campaign. In his second professional season, he caught 56 receptions for 639 yards including four touchdowns.
Now, returning to practice, Njoku will look to rebuild chemistry with starting quarterback Baker Mayfield and hopefully spark stronger play from the Browns struggling offense. Currently at 4-6, Cleveland is unlikely to make a run at the playoffs, but a strong close to the season could help them remain more certain they are still headed in the right direction.
07:56pm: Burnett underwent successful surgery today, per Adam Schefter of ESPN.com (via Twitter). He is expected to make a full recovery.
09:35am: Morgan Burnett‘s season is over. As feared, the Browns’ veteran safety tore his Achilles in Cleveland’s win over the Steelers on Thursday, and the club announced that it has placed Burnett on IR.
It’s an especially difficult blow for Burnett, who missed some time due to injury earlier in the season as well. But he played all of the Browns’ defensive snaps in Weeks 8 through 10, and he was having a great night against Pittsburgh in Week 11, piling up five tackles — including one tackle for loss — and a big interception before suffering the Achilles tear. Burnett had been relegated to a part-time role as a member of the Steelers in 2018, but he had returned to a starter’s workload with Cleveland.
The 4-6 Browns were already going to have an uphill climb to make the playoffs, but that task will be even more difficult without Burnett on the back end of the defense and without the suspended Myles Garrett in the trenches. The Browns already cut safety Jermaine Whitehead earlier this year after he went on a Twitter tirade, so they could look outside the organization for a replacement for Burnett (they did work out several safeties yesterday). If not, Eric Murray, Juston Burris, or rookie Sheldrick Redwine are the current internal candidates on the 53-man roster.
Cleveland has Burnett under club control through the 2020 season after signing him to a two-year, $7.5MM deal in April. He ends his first Browns season with 41 tackles, one interception, and two sacks.
Today’s updates from the workout circuit:
Cleveland Browns
Houston Texans
Jacksonville Jaguars
New York Jets
Oakland Raiders
Browns linebacker Joe Schobert may not be a household name, but he has quietly become one of the best young LBs in football. The 2017 Pro Bowler announced his presence on the national stage during Thursday night’s win over the Steelers, flying all over the field to post 10 total tackles, a sack, and two interceptions.
Schobert, 26, has been a full-time starter since 2017, and he has recorded over 100 tackles in each of the past two years (he already has 92 tackles this season). He does well against the pass and against the run, and he has played every defensive snap for the Browns this year.
The 2016 fourth-round pick is also playing out the final year of his rookie contract, and as Nate Ulrich of the Akron Beacon Journal writes, the Browns and Schobert’s agent have discussed a contract extension. “They’ve had conversations,” Schobert said. “I just let him do his job and I just try to focus on football.”
When asked if he was open to staying in Cleveland, Schobert didn’t exhibit unbridled excitement. “Sure,” he said. “You always want to have the long-term security and comfort knowing where you’re going to be and what team you’re going to be on and that kind of stuff.”
Schobert may not be in Bobby Wagner territory, but he will almost certainly crack the $10MM/year mark when he signs his next contract. A five-year, $65MM pact with around $35MM in guarantees sounds like a good bet.
NOV. 18: Per Nate Ulrich of the Akron Beacon Journal, Ogunjobi’s appeal will be heard Monday, and Pouncey’s appeal will be heard Tuesday. Schefter says that Garrett’s appeal will be heard on Wednesday (Twitter link). Schefter notes in a separate tweet that Garrett intends to be at the hearing to state his case in person.
NOV. 17: The NFL has suspended Browns defensive end Myles Garrett indefinitely, and Ian Rapoport of NFL.com reports that Garrett will appeal the ban (Twitter link).
In case you haven’t heard, Garrett was the central figure in a horrific melee that broke out in the final moments of Thursday night’s contest between the Steelers and Browns. While both fanbases certainly have their own perspective on the matter, it’s clear that Garrett unnecessarily drove Steelers QB Mason Rudolph into the ground after Rudolph released a pass. The play could have been flagged — and may have been if the game were in doubt at that point or if there were more then eight seconds left — and Rudolph took exception to it.
Rudolph grabbed at Garrett’s helmet and kicked out at him, which caused Garrett to escalate the scuffle beyond what anyone could have reasonably expected, yanking Rudolph’s helmet off of him and striking him over the head with it. That naturally led to a scrum between both clubs that saw Steelers center Maurkice Pouncey (three games) and Browns defensive lineman Larry Ogunjobi (one game) receive suspensions. Rudolph, Pouncey, and Ogunjobi were all fined, and obviously Garrett will be fined as well.
As Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports writes, more fines will be coming for Rudolph and others. While NFL head of football operations Troy Vincent and his team initially reviewed the footage of the brawl with a focus on who committed offenses worthy of a suspension, they will now comb through the tape to determine the full amount of fines (and what other players may deserve them). Vincent says there will certainly be another wave of fines on the way, and both the Steelers and Browns have been hit with $250K sanctions.
Adam Schefter of ESPN.com says the appeals for Garrett, Pouncey, and Ogunjobi will be heard on Monday and Tuesday by jointly-appointed officers Derrick Brooks and James Thrash. The rulings are expected no later than Wednesday. Schefter adds in a separate report that at least 10 players will be fined, and that the announcement will be issued next weekend.
Per Rapoport, Garrett’s camp will argue that the CBA does not allow for indefinite suspensions for on-field acts and that the league should impose a ban for a finite number of games.