Cincinnati Bengals News & Rumors

Bengals To Cut Joe Mixon, Sign Zack Moss

Joe Mixon will not be on the Bengals’ roster when a bonus vests later this week. The Bengals are moving on from their seven-year starting running back, NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport and Mike Garafolo report.

This was a rumored scenario in Cincinnati, with Mixon agreeing to a reworked contract last summer. Cincy is also bringing in a replacement. Zack Moss will be the latest 2023 RB starter to change teams, with ESPN’s Adam Schefter reporting the recent Colt will sign a two-year deal to join the Bengals. Moss will head for the AFC North on a two-year, $8MM pact. The Bengals will save $6.1MM by releasing Mixon, who was due a $3MM bonus Saturday.

Mixon came with considerable controversy when the Bengals drafted him — due to a video catching him striking a woman while at Oklahoma, leading to a team-imposed suspension — and a 2023 arrest became a headache for the team. (Mixon was found not guilty on an aggravated menacing charge in August.)

The 27-year-old back has operated as a fixture in Cincinnati’s offense dating back to the Marvin LewisAndy Dalton era. But last year’s contract redo — a two-year, $11.5MM pact that significantly reduced Mixon’s pay, after he had signed a four-year, $48MM deal in 2020 — displayed some wall writing for the Bengals, whose roster blueprint is different with Joe Burrow on an NFL-record extension.

The Bengals still leaned on Mixon in 2023, having lost Samaje Perine to the Broncos in free agency. Mixon churned out his fourth 1,000-yard season. In addition to clearing that barrier, Mixon crossed 1,400 scrimmage yards (1,410) for the fourth time. He added 12 touchdowns in what amounted to a lost season due to Burrow’s injury. As the musical chairs spin at this position, Mixon is much shorter on options than he was coming into Monday.

Mixon stood 35 yards away from James Brooks for second in Bengals rushing annals, and while he should have an opportunity in 2024, Cincinnati is moving on. The team will turn to Moss, who is going into his age-26 season. Moss impressed as the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor fill-in last season and will collect a bit of guaranteed money from his new team. The ex-Bills second-rounder will collect $4.5MM in the first year of this Bengals contract. Moss tallied 794 rushing yards and five touchdowns as a Colt last season, adding two receiving scores.

One of the teams to lose a running back today, the Cowboys were also in the mix for Moss. Dallas was not quite willing to go where Cincinnati was, per the Dallas Morning News’ Michael Gehlken. Whereas Mixon has 1,571 carries on his odometer — more than any back to change teams today — Moss is at just 484. At a position where mileage matters most, the Bengals are rebooting. Moss will join Chase Brown and the recently re-signed Trayveon Williams in Cincinnati’s backfield.

Thus far Monday, 12 teams changed starting running backs. A few clubs still have needs, and Mixon will join Aaron Jones — also released today — and Derrick Henry as big names in search of a new opportunity.

Bengals, S Geno Stone Agree To Deal

On the lookout for a safety addition, Cincinnati is set to add a new potential starter from a division rival. Geno Stone has agreed to a deal with the Bengals, as first reported by Bleacher Report’s Jordan Schultz. Stone will receive $15MM on a two-year deal, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network adds.

Stone has been a division rival of the Bengals in Baltimore for almost all of his career, minus a short two-and-a-half-month period in his rookie year that he spent on the Texans’ roster. After being drafted in the seventh round out of Iowa, Stone’s entire tenure as a Raven was in a backup capacity. He sat behind eventual free agent departures Chuck Clark and DeShon Elliott, as well as versatile defensive back Brandon Stephens, before the eventual arrivals of Marcus Williams and Kyle Hamilton.

Injuries to Williams in 2022 and 2023, as well as the need to move Stephens back to cornerback for depth purposes, finally afforded Stone a chance to start. He took that chance and shined. With seven starts in 2022, Stone graded out as the league’s 28th best safety out of 88 graded players, according to Pro Football Focus. He earned more starts as an injury replacement for Williams this year and played so well that Baltimore often found themselves fielding three safeties, all in versatile roles. With his opportunities this year, Stone graded out well again as he battled DaRon Bland for the interception title with seven picks of his own.

The Ravens will be sad to watch Stone go, but they are set up well at the safety position with Willams and Hamilton both under contract through the 2026 season. They may need to add some depth at the position with such a valuable piece as Stone headed across the division, but it likely won’t be high on the priority list, perhaps necessitating a late-round pick.

In Cincinnati, Stone arrives to a bit of a muddier situation. For much of the year, the Bengals fielded Daxton Hill and Nick Scott as their starting safeties. PFF would grade both players extremely poorly with Hill ranking 90th and Scott landing dead last at 95th. Third-round rookie Jordan Battle would eventually step in for Scott as a starter next to Hill, and in a small sample size, Battle graded out much better as the league’s eighth-best safety, according to PFF.

Hill and Battle may be the incumbent starters, with lots of time left on their rookie contracts. Even Scott is under contract for the next two years, but Stone provides a new, intriguing option. If Hill continues to struggle, the Bengals now have a ball-hawking safety in Stone who plays far too hard to be kept off the field. Stone may even push for starting time to begin the year. If Scott or Hill show improvement, Stone gives Cincinnati the option of running three-safety sets, just like their rivals did with Stone last season.

Ely Allen contributed to this post.

Bengals Re-Sign TE Drew Sample

The tight end spot has been the source of speculation with respect to the Bengals. An addition could still be coming, but an in-house contributor will remain in place. The team announced on Monday that Drew Sample re-signed on a three-year deal.

After playing out a one-year contract in 2023, Sample will be tied to a $10.5MM accord (per NFL.com’s Tom Pelissero). The Bengals will probably still be on the hunt for a pass-catching option at tight end, but they have one piece of the puzzle solved.

Sample has been with the Bengals since they chose him in the 2019 second round. Cincinnati drew some scrutiny for making that pick, as Sample did not have an extensive pass-catching history at Washington. That has continued in Ohio, though Sample has been a key presence in the Bengals’ run game.

The 6-foot-4 tight end has only topped 175 receiving yards in one season — back in 2020. Pro Football Focus graded Sample as a top-15 run-blocking tight end last season, which came after he re-signed on a one-year deal worth just $1.23MM. The Bengals saw enough from the 27-year-old tight end to make a bigger investment this time, though the guarantees will tell the tale.

Cincinnati let C.J. Uzomah walk in 2022 and Hayden Hurst leave for Carolina in 2023; both players are back on the market, bringing an interesting opportunity for the team. Hunter Henry and Dalton Schultz re-signed before free agency, thinning out the TE market.

Bengals Re-Sign RB Trayveon Williams

Questions remain about Joe Mixon‘s future with the Bengals. Regardless of what happens atop the running back depth chart this offseason, though, Cincinnati will have familiar complementary options in 2024. Trayveon Williams has been re-signed, per a team announcement.

Parked behind Mixon and Samaje Perine for most of his Bengals career, Williams is best known thus far for his role as the team’s kick returner over the past two years. It would surprise if the team cut Mixon with designs on promoting the Texas A&M product to RB1 duty, even though it would help on the financial front.

Post-Perine last year, the Bengals used rookie Chase Brown as Mixon’s top backup. Williams could be in line to compete for the backup role in his sixth season, but it would seem Brown has the much better chance of being a Mixon successor in the starting lineup. Williams received only 15 carries last season and has logged all of 62 over the course of his career.

The Bengals owe Mixon a $3MM roster bonus on March 16. The veteran back’s summer reworking last year included this bonus, as the seven-year starter wanted more clarity — on an uncertain RB market — this year compared to how the Bengals dragged out this process in 2023. Mixon will have it, and the Bengals now have Brown and Williams signed behind him.

Bengals WR Tee Higgins Requests Trade

To no surprise, the Bengals used the franchise tag on wideout Tee Higgins and in doing so prevented him from reaching free agency. He could still be playing on a new team by the start of the 2024 season, though. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports Higgins has requested a trade.

This is complicated territory for the Bengals, who may well be renting Higgins via the tag. Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow extension and its plans for a Ja’Marr Chase payday — its top WR priority — may make a Higgins extension untenable. But the team carved out enough cap space for a Higgins tag this year. The team’s No. 2 wideout may not be on board with the team’s plan, one that would delay his long-term payday by a year.

The Bengals saw their hopes at breaking through for a Super Bowl title dashed when Burrow went down in November. A Higgins tag would offer a mulligan of sorts, keeping the Burrow-Chase-Higgins window open for one more year. Player personnel director Duke Tobin, who shot down Higgins trade rumors at the 2023 Combine, recently said a tag-and-trade scenario was unlikely.

The message is we really like Tee and we’re a better team with Tee. In terms of our intentions and answering hypotheticals, I won’t get into that,” Tobin said, via the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Charlie Goldsmith. “We feel like we’re a better team with him. The reason we franchised him is we’d like to have him.”

Tag rentals have been going on since the NFL introduced the player-retention tool in 1993, and standout wide receivers regularly need to wait until Year 5 for a payday. CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson are in this boat, due to being first-round picks in 2020, and Chase will probably join them. The Bengals picking up Chase’s fifth-year option can allow them to table extension talks to 2025.

Cincinnati dealing Higgins would hurt its chances of winning a championship this year, though the receiver market not including Mike Evans (re-signed) or Michael Pittman Jr. (tagged) could make offers for the Clemson alum tempting. Higgins would certainly fetch a strong haul for the Bengals, and Cincy tagging Higgins so early could have been interpreted as a way for the team to see what a trade would bring back. But this is an old-school organization that typically does not give in on these fronts. It will be interesting to see if any traction develops here.

Free Agency Notes: Queen, Seahawks, Packers, Panthers, Pats, Jackson, Bengals

The Ravens’ Roquan Smith payment always made it likely Patrick Queen would need to collect his money elsewhere. Now that Queen’s most recent defensive coordinator landed a coaching job, a logical fit has emerged. Indeed, many executives predicted (via the Washington Post’s Jason La Canfora) Queen would wind up reunited with Mike Macdonald in Seattle. With the Seahawks likely to again part ways with Bobby Wagner, spots are open. Jordyn Brooks, who joined Queen as a 2020 first-round LB pick, is also on the cusp of free agency. Queen is coming off his best season — a Pro Bowl showing alongside Smith — and turned a corner once the Bears trade commenced last year.

Checking in eighth on PFR’s top 50 free agents list (before the Chris Jones and Baker Mayfield deals), Queen could be in line to rival what Tremaine Edmunds received ($18MM per year, $41.8MM fully guaranteed) last year and land a top-five ILB contract. Barely 12 hours from the legal tampering period, here is the latest from the free agent scene:

  • Not known for splashy signings, the Packers do look like they are ready to upgrade at one position on the market. Green Bay appears likely to look at the top safeties available, ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler notes. Although several veteran safeties became street free agents due to recent cuts (Justin Simmons, Jamal Adams, Quandre Diggs and Jordan Poyer among them), this saturated market does include two young guns that should be paid well soon. It would not shock to see the Pack pursue Xavier McKinney and Kamren Curl, Fowler adds. Both safeties are going into their age-25 seasons, which could separate them on a crowded market.
  • The Panthers released Bradley Bozeman today, and while they will look for a center, expect a guard pursuit as well. This year’s market is big on guards, and The Athletic’s Joe Person writes the Panthers want to upgrade at a guard spot this offseason. Carolina lost both its starting guards — Brady Christensen, Austin Corbett — to major injuries last season, representing one of the many issues on offense in Bryce Young‘s rookie year. The team does not consider Ikem Ekwonu an option. Despite the 2022 first-rounder playing guard at points in college, ESPN.com’s David Newton indicates the new coaching staff is keeping him at left tackle.
  • The Patriots are open to bringing back J.C. Jackson, according to Sportskeeda.com’s Tony Pauline. Jackson’s season ended early after the team placed the veteran cornerback on the reserve/NFI list. Should Jackson move past the mental health struggles that wrapped his first season back in New England, Pauline adds the team is open to another reunion despite last week’s release.
  • Seeing a revolving door form at right tackle (Bobby Hart, Riley Reiff, La’el Collins, Jonah Williams) over the past four years, the Bengals want that to stop. They may be ready to take a two-pronged approach by adding a veteran and a potential rookie heir apparent. “We would like to have somebody man the right tackle spot for a number of years, yes,” player personnel director Duke Tobin said (via The Athletic’s Paul Dehner Jr.). “We’d like it to be a young guy that can come in and do that or a veteran that might have the opportunity to rebuild his career, something. But yes, we would like that to be manned on multiple fronts. But we’re focused with having it manned well enough to provide us a chance to win next year. That’s the No. 1 thing.” Williams is a free agent, and given the market he might have — as a chance to move to left tackle may await — it is unlikely the 2019 first-round pick is back in Cincinnati.

Bengals Re-Sign OL Cody Ford

The Bengals are holding on to one of their top depth offensive linemen. According to NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo, the Bengals have re-signed guard Cody Ford. It’s a one-year deal for the lineman. The Bengals have since announced the move.

The former second-round pick had stops in Buffalo and Arizona before landing with the Bengals last offseason on a one-year, $1MM deal. Ford ended up emerging as the team’s “sixth offensive lineman,” although thanks to the team’s relative health on the OL, that didn’t result in many offensive snaps.

The veteran ended up starting one of his 17 appearances last season, and he lined up at both left tackle and right guard for his new squad. He was limited to only 79 offensive snaps during his first season in Cincinnati after averaging close to 490 offensive snaps per season through his first four years in the NFL.

Ford will likely be eyeing a similar role in 2024, although he should see more playing time assuming the team doesn’t have the same health luck. Jonah Williams‘ impending free agency opens a temporary spot on the depth chart, although it sounds like the Bengals value Ford’s versatility off the bench vs. handing him a starting gig.

NFL Announces 2024 Compensatory Picks

The NFL has awarded compensatory draft picks for teams in the 2024 draft. Based on an add/subtract formula that covers the 2023 free agency period, comp picks span from Round 3 to Round 7. The higher picks go to the teams that endured the most significant free agent losses.

This year, the NFL awarded 34 comp picks. The comp pick formula assigns picks to franchises who suffered the largest net losses, so teams that signed multiple free agents have a lesser chance of receiving picks. The CBA limits the total compensatory number to 32, per Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com, who notes the Cowboys, Jaguars and Packers qualified for an additional comp pick based on the net loss formula.

The updated NFL format also rewards third-round comp picks to teams that saw a minority assistant coach land a head coaching job or a minority front office exec become a GM. Teams receive two third-round picks for losing an assistant or FO staffer to a top job, but the picks do not come in the same draft. The 49ers’ pipeline here is still flowing and will continue to do so into the 2025 draft, with Ran Carthon landing the Titans’ GM job last year and DeMeco Ryans becoming the Texans’ HC. The Rams collected the first of their two third-rounders for the Falcons’ Raheem Morris hire. The Buccaneers do not receive a comp pick for Dave Canales‘ Panthers move due to the Latino staffer being Tampa Bay’s OC for just one season.

Sorted by round and by team, here are the league’s 2024 compensatory selections.

By round:

Round 3: Jaguars (No. 96 overall), Eagles (No. 97), Rams (No. 98)*, 49ers (No. 99)*

Round 4: 49ers (No. 132), Bills (No. 133), Ravens (No. 134)

Round 5: Saints (No. 167), Packers (No. 168), Saints (No. 169), Eagles (No. 170), Eagles (No. 171), Chiefs (No. 172), Cowboys (No. 173), Saints (No. 174), 49ers (No. 175)

Round 6: Bengals (No. 208), Rams (No. 209), Eagles (No. 210), 49ers (No. 211), Jaguars (No. 212), Rams (No. 213), Bengals (No. 214), 49ers (No. 215), Cowboys (No. 216), Rams (No. 217), Jets (No. 218), Packers (No. 219), Buccaneers (No. 220)

Round 7: Chargers (No. 253), Rams (No. 254), Packers (No. 255), Jets (No. 256), Jets (No. 257)

* = special compensatory selection

By team:

  • Los Angeles Rams: 5
  • San Francisco 49ers: 5
  • Philadelphia Eagles: 4
  • Green Bay Packers: 3
  • New Orleans Saints: 3
  • New York Jets: 3
  • Cincinnati Bengals: 2
  • Dallas Cowboys: 2
  • Jacksonville Jaguars: 2
  • Baltimore Ravens: 1
  • Buffalo Bills: 1
  • Kansas City Chiefs: 1
  • Los Angeles Chargers: 1
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 1

2024 Top 50 NFL Free Agents

With the franchise tag application deadline in the rearview mirror, we have a clearer picture of who will be available in free agency. Barring 11th-hour deals, starting quarterbacks and a future Hall of Fame defensive tackle will drive the class in the 32nd year of full-fledged free agency in the NFL.

In addition to the Kirk CousinsBaker MayfieldChris Jones trio, interior offensive linemen will cash in as part of this year’s crop. Last year’s tackle class was a bit deeper; this year, O-line dollars figure to be funneled inside.

The NFL’s legal tampering period, which gives players a window to speak with other teams and reach unofficial agreements, begins at 11am CT on March 11. The new league year opens two days later, though much of the frenzy will take place during the tampering period.

This list ranks free agents by earning potential, with guaranteed money serving as the general measuring stick. This is one of the great running back classes in free agency annals, but even though some of the RBs’ accomplishments far eclipse many of the players ranked above them, the position’s market has absorbed numerous hits. Older standouts, including potential Hall of Famers, not having the earning power they once did also factors into this equation.

Here is this year’s PFR top 50 free agents list, along with potential landing spots for each player.

1. Kirk Cousins, QB. Age in Week 1: 36

Cousins hitting free agency in his prime six years ago brought countless rumors about his value and future. Quarterback movement was less common then. Cousins made that foray count, scoring a landmark deal from the Vikings – a fully guaranteed three-year, $84MM pact. We are back here again because Cousins and the Vikings could not agree on a fourth extension, with the sides’ 2023 talks breaking down in part because Minnesota refused to provide guarantees into a third year. Cousins is coming off an Achilles tear, but given the need here, the 13th-year veteran is back atop a free agent value list.

Thanks to Cousins’ two-franchise tag path out of Washington in the late 2010s, the Vikings could not realistically tag their quarterback. No one has been tagged a third time since the 2006 CBA made doing so prohibitive. While the Vikings and Cousins have each expressed interest in a reunion, time is running out due to the structure of Cousins’ third Vikings contract. And a clear threat has emerged.

If Minnesota cannot re-sign Cousins before the start of the 2024 league year, $28.5MM in dead money will move onto the team’s 2024 cap sheet. Considering the dead cap awaiting and the Vikings holding the No. 11 overall draft slot, the team is in crunch time at quarterback. Minnesota will need to decide on perhaps one final contract with one of the NFL’s all-time financial mavens, and with Justin Jefferson interested in the team’s decision with the quarterback that helped him to a historic start, the NFC North club is navigating a layered process.

Never confused with a top-tier quarterback, Cousins has been in the league’s upper third for much of his career. The former Washington fourth-rounder had thrown 18 TD passes compared to five INTs before the Week 8 Achilles tear shut him down, finishing this productive stretch with Jefferson sidelined three games. QBR slotted Cousins seventh last season but rehabbing this injury in his mid-30s certainly will not make teams feel great about the offers required to win this derby. Still, this is the cost of doing business with above-average QBs.

Cousins has all of one Pro Bowl as a non-alternate, coming in 2022. Illustrating the value this position brings and Cousins having the upper hand on the Vikings in negotiations thanks to the fully guaranteed deal he landed in 2018, the Michigan State alum has made more than $231MM in his career. That number will almost definitely balloon past $300MM by 2025. Cousins has signed deals worth $28MM, $33MM and $35MM per year. Although Derek Carr scored a $37.5MM-AAV Saints pact and a practical guarantee of $70MM, Cousins’ consistency and financial shrewdness may still top that even near the end of his mid-30s.

Only Fran Tarkenton and Tommy Kramer have served as Vikings QB1s longer than Cousins, but Minnesota also must begin planning for the future. The team has seen Cousins and Jefferson form a dominant connection; Minnesota has also won just one playoff game since signing Cousins, failing to reach the postseason in three of his healthy years. If the Vikings pass and set their sights on the draft, who will make the payment?

Facing incomprehensible dead money due to the Russell Wilson extension going bust, the Broncos could certainly use Cousins as a bridge. Denver’s dead cap — $85MM over the next two years once Wilson is designated a post-June 1 cut — will make this signing difficult. The Broncos bowed out of the Cousins sweepstakes six years ago, signing Case Keenum; they may not have the resources to make a competitive bid now.

Cousins-to-Atlanta is producing enough smoke it is time to closely monitor this relocation; this reality would put Terry Fontenot’s skill-position draftees in better position to thrive, after Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder held them back. While Justin Fields odds pointed the Bears QB to Atlanta last week, it looks like the Falcons prefer a proving passing option. Hiring ex-Rams QBs coach Zac Robinson as OC, the Falcons appear the Vikings’ top threat if Cousins hits the tampering period unsigned.

Best fits: Falcons, Vikings, Broncos

2. Baker Mayfield, QB. Age in Week 1: 29

Were this an accomplishments-based ranking, Mayfield would not sniff this tier. Starting QBs in their primes get paid, as they rarely reach the market. Mayfield is not exactly a set-it-and-forget-it option, as this era has featured less QB patience than previous NFL periods. But he is being linked in the $35MM-per-year range. That marks a staggering transformation from 2023, when one team was willing to make the former No. 1 pick its starter favorite.

Mayfield turned down slightly more lucrative offers to vie against only Kyle Trask — after the Bucs passed on Will Levis, whom they brought in for a “30” visit — last year. The bet on a return to form in Dave Canales’ system paid off, though it is important to note how far the ex-Browns QB1 fell over the previous two seasons. Rumblings of a franchise-level extension — in the $30MM-plus-AAV range, when that number meant more — surrounded Mayfield’s 2021 offseason, which followed the ’20 Browns nearly upsetting the Chiefs in the divisional round. That remains Cleveland’s lone Round 2 playoff run since 1989. Had Mayfield built on the progress he showed in 2020, an alternate NFL reality — in which the Falcons have Deshaun Watson and the Bucs pursue a different post-Tom Brady stopgap — probably ensues. But the ’21 season tanked Mayfield’s stock, which had farther to fall in 2022.

An early-season injury to Mayfield’s non-throwing shoulder plagued him in 2021, and after the Browns’ unrefusable Watson offer led Mayfield to Carolina, horrid form keyed a last-place QBR finish in 2022. Mayfield’s 2023 QBR (54.3) trails his 2020 number (65.5), and the Bucs went from 3-0 to 4-7 to the divisional round. This rollercoaster ride provided a nice microcosm of Mayfield’s pro career, which also involved a steep 2019 dip due largely to Freddie Kitchens being overmatched as a head coach. But the inconsistency should matter here, to a degree.

If the Bucs let Mayfield hit the market, the statuses of Cousins and Justin Fields will be intertwined with his as teams without top-three draft real estate determine their options. It is not out of the question clubs could view Sam Darnold, Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew or Ryan Tannehill at a far lower price as a more cost-effective option than Mayfield. The Giants faced same question last year; was there a team willing to go to the $40MM-per-year place had Big Blue let Daniel Jones hit free agency? The Jones contract has likely come up in Mayfield negotiations, complicating the Bucs’ decision.

Mayfield established new career-high marks in TD passes (28) and yards (4,044). He also limited his INTs to 10 in Canales’ offense. The Bucs gave Mayfield input in their OC search, which produced ex-Rams OC Liam Coen, providing an obvious signal they do not intend to let him get away. The Bucs just made the playoffs with Brady’s $35.1MM void years-driven dead money on their payroll. While Mayfield’s deal would be backloaded, Tampa Bay would not see too much change here with Mayfield set to go from a $4MM base salary to likely beyond $30MM.

Geno Smith’s three-year, $75MM deal should serve as Mayfield’s floor, as it is the veteran-QB1 basement presently. But Smith agreed to Seahawks-friendly terms. A pay-as-you-go contract is unlikely here, with the Jones and Derek Carr deals respectively producing practical guarantees of $81MM and $70MM. Mayfield is also four years younger than Smith. Mayfield might not match Jones and Carr for AAV, but the Bucs will need to pay him more per year than they did Brady ($25MM).

Passing would make the Bucs start over from a poor draft slot to do so (No. 25), arming Mayfield’s camp with more leverage. The Vikings being unable to complete a deal with Cousins could make them a Mayfield suitor, and while the Patriots have quite a few connections to the former Heisman winner — including Eliot Wolf and OC Alex Van Pelt — it does not make too much sense for the Pats taking this route given the shape of their roster. With Fields and Cousins in the mix and the Steelers setting their sights lower, Mayfield’s options are still somewhat limited. That will play into the Bucs’ hands; both sides need to be careful here.

Best fits: Buccaneers, Falcons, Vikings

3. Chris Jones, IDL. Age in Week 1: 30

The Chiefs secured dynasty status after trading Tyreek Hill and, barring some playoff surges, missing on the Frank Clark contract. They have not paid cornerbacks during this stretch, highlighting the importance of Steve Spagnuolo’s centerpiece defender. (L’Jarius Sneed’s franchise tag, coming with heavy trade rumors, points to the Chiefs going in this direction again.) Patrick Mahomes and, especially over the past year, Travis Kelce receive most of the attention. Jones has been the clear third Chiefs pillar during this period, racking up five All-Pro honors and being the only pure defensive tackle in the sack era (1982-present) to record two 15-sack seasons.

Jones has also been durable, missing more than two games in a season just twice and suiting up for all but one contest during Kansas City’s back-to-back Super Bowl-winning campaigns. That makes the Chiefs’ defensive struggles in Week 1, during Jones’ holdout, notable. Rightfully asking for money in the Aaron Donald neighborhood, Jones bet on himself rather than accept a Chiefs offer that placed him on the same plane as less proven DTs — in the second tier that formed thanks to 2023’s Jeffery Simmons, Quinnen Williams, Daron Payne and Dexter Lawrence extensions. With Nick Bosa raising the defender ceiling to $34MM per year in September, Jones reaching $30MM AAV is in play on the open market. The Chiefs’ top priority is preventing Jones reaching free agency.

Kansas City franchise-tagged Jones in 2020, which always made a 2024 tag – at 120% of his pre-restructure 2023 salary, pushing the total past $32MM — unrealistic. Although Jones has said on multiple occasions he wants to stay in Missouri, the Chiefs’ negotiations last year created the risk of losing one of the best players in franchise history. From a pass-rushing standpoint, Jones has surpassed Donald (the current Donald version, that is) during the Chiefs’ back-to-back Super Bowl-winning years. He is three years younger than the Rams all-time great. Donald needed to threaten retirement to secure his landmark raise at 31; Jones reaching the open market healthy — in a year when a record cap spike occurred — effectively maximizes his leverage.

Javon Hargrave scored a $21MM-per-year pact; it took only $40MM fully guaranteed for the 49ers to land him. From an accomplishments and impact standpoint, Jones’ free agency is closer to Reggie White’s than Hargrave. White was 31 when his 1993 free agency tour commenced. Albert Haynesworth (2009) and Ndamukong Suh (2015) scored record-setting deals when they hit the market. Jones probably will not top Bosa’s AAV, but eclipsing the current DT guarantee high (Williams’ $66MM) seems likely.

The Chiefs have shown they can get by after losing corners; they have not shown they can win without Jones, who has made countless pivotal plays while rushing from inside and outside. The most recent led to a 49ers overtime field goal, which set up a championship-cementing Chiefs drive. Kansas City will need to make a monster offer to keep Jones off the market, but at this point, the champs must prepare to outbid other teams as their future Hall of Fame DT is less than a week away from testing the market.

Bears GM Ryan Poles was in Kansas City when the Chiefs drafted Jones in the 2016 second round, and Chicago is likely to restart its QB contract clock via a Caleb Williams pick soon. The Texans also have a rookie-QB contract (and Will Anderson on a rookie pact) around which Jones’ guaranteed years could be structured. With budgets increasing as of the recent cap news, teams could enter this bidding for one of the best defenders to ever hit free agency.

Best fits: Chiefs, Texans, Bears

4. Christian Wilkins, IDL. Age in Week 1: 28

The stars have aligned for Wilkins. From the Dolphins’ cap status to Justin Madubuike being franchise-tagged and the rest of the high-level D-tackles from Wilkins’ draft class being extended last year, the charismatic Clemson alum is about to reap the rewards of hitting free agency at this point. Excelling against the run and coming off his best pass-rushing season, the five-year veteran is likely to land a deal in the ballpark of those given to the rest of the 2019 first-round DT contingent. If the Chiefs re-sign Chris Jones, suddenly the player the Dolphins shied away from extending is the market’s top D-tackle prize.

Negotiations dragged on last summer, and other deals set the market. The Commanders extended Daron Payne in March, while the Titans reached an agreement with Jeffery Simmons in April. Dexter Lawrence followed in May, and the Jets hammered out their Quinnen Williams re-up just before training camp. Each pact was worth between $22.5-$24MM per year, creating a new second tier behind Aaron Donald’s outlier accord, and brought between $46-$47.9MM guaranteed at signing. This is a narrow range, making it a bit odd nothing was finalized. The Dolphins offered a top-10 DT salary, but that falls short of the Payne-Simmons-Lawrence-Williams range. It is possible the Dolphins also used 2019 first-round DT Ed Oliver’s deal, which came in lower ($17MM AAV, $24.5MM guaranteed at signing) as a comp in these talks. That would naturally introduce a complication.

A September rumor suggested the Dolphins were hesitant to go into the above-referenced price range due to Wilkins’ low sack output (11.5 sacks from 2019-22). He responded with a career year, tallying nine sacks — twice as many as his previous best — and 23 QB hits (10 more than his prior best). Wilkins finished 13th in ESPN’s pass rush win rate metric. This came after ESPN’s run stop win rate metric viewed Wilkins as a dominant presence, ranking him first in 2022 and second in 2021. Wilkins, who also deflected 15 passes from 2020-22, adding a pass rush piece will be valuable soon.

Residing in poor cap shape, the Dolphins already released Jerome Baker and Emmanuel Ogbah and are set to cut Xavien Howard. They have also paid two D-line pieces — DE Bradley Chubb, DT Zach Sieler — eight figures per year and have Jaelan Phillips presumably on the extension radar. Will Wilkins, acquired during Brian Flores’ first year, need to find his money elsewhere? Flores’ Vikings could be waiting.

Best fits: Texans, Vikings, Patriots

5. Jonathan Greenard, Edge. Age in Week 1: 27

Already a lower-profile franchise, the Texans saw their on-field work drift off the radar as their Bill O’Brien-run operation cratered and produced two subsequent HC one-and-dones. One of the players who was worth monitoring during this bleak period broke through to help Houston re-emerge under DeMeco Ryans. Greenard delivered a 12.5-sack season, leading the Texans in sacks by a wide margin and providing Will Anderson with a quality bookend.

A fringe tag candidate entering the offseason, Greenard had already tallied an eight-sack season (in 2021) before an injury-plagued 2022 stalled his early-career momentum. But last season brought new territory. Ranking 20th with 33 quarterback pressures, Greenard smashed his career-high with 22 QB hits. He ranked sixth among edge rushers in ESPN’s pass rush win rate metric in 2023. Reinvigorated in Ryans’ scheme, Greenard profiles as a player the Texans want to re-sign. But rumblings about his price will put Houston to the test. An AAV in the $22MM neighborhood could be in the offing for a player whose best work should still be ahead. Teams look eager to land Greenard.

Sitting in the top five in cap space and having Anderson and C.J. Stroud tied to rookie deals through at least 2025, the Texans can afford to make some investments elsewhere. They have begun doing so via the Dalton Schultz re-signing. Beyond its O-line, Houston’s cap sheet is light on big payments. Regularly stocking the roster with two-year deals at lower-middle-class rates, GM Nick Caserio has not gone to this financial territory to retain a player just yet. The Patriots would regularly let this type of player walk, as the Trey Flowers 2019 Detroit defection illustrates. The Texans’ Stroud and Anderson situations, however, support a re-signing.

Best fits: Texans, Commanders, Bears

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RFA/ERFA Tender Decisions: 2/28/24

Decisions were made for three exclusive rights free agents today:

ERFAs

Tendered:

Non-tendered:

Cincinnati made the call to hold on to their starting long snapper of the past two seasons, as well as their backup quarterback. An undrafted free agent out of Washington back in 2019, Browning finally made his NFL debut this year, getting significant run due to a season-ending injury to starter Joe Burrow. In seven starts as Burrow’s replacement, Browning led the league with a 70.4 completion percentage, throwing 12 touchdowns to seven interceptions while averaging just over 215 passing yards per game. The team won four of the seven games in which Browning started. As tendered exclusive rights free agents, Adomitis and Browning will have the option to either sign the tender offer or work towards a long-term deal.

Dorsey, on the other hand, will head to the free agent market after Detroit opted not to pick him back up. A depth cornerback, Dorsey started two games for the Lions this year but had a bigger impact on special teams, where he served as the team’s top kickoff return man.