December 17th, 2019 at 9:49am CST by Zachary Links
The Seahawks were dealt a bad blow this week when Josh Gordon was banned indefinitely by the NFL. Down a major deep threat, could they consider signing Antonio Brown, the game’s most talented and controversial free agent?
Mike Florio of PFT touched on the possibility today, while noting the obvious barriers: Brown is still waiting to find out whether he’ll be hit with a suspension of his own and the PR backlash would be enormous.
The Seahawks did their “due diligence” on Brown before claiming Gordon this year, but it’s not clear what they uncovered in their own investigation. Meanwhile, teams interested in Brown have been in a holding pattern as they await word on the wide receiver’s status from the NFL.
The belief is that if Brown is signed, the league will instantly place him on paid leave. But, if the Seahawks were to sign Brown after Week 17, there would be no real financial risk, since his compensation would be limited to just his playoff share.
With all of that said, the potential upside is enormous. Brown has caught 841 passes for 11,253 yards over the course of his ten-year career, which includes seven Pro Bowl appearances. And, in his last playoff game (January 14, 2018), reeled in seven catches for 132 yards and two touchdowns. That’s the kind of weapon Russell Wilson could use as the Seahawks gear up for their 2019/2020 push.
Cast your vote below (link for app users) and back up your choice in the comment section:
December 5th, 2019 at 7:04pm CST by Dallas Robinson
With only four weeks left in the 2019 regular season, a number of non-contending NFL teams have already started to look ahead to the impending offseason, and specifically, the 2020 draft. Four teams — the Bengals, Giants, Dolphins, and Redskins — still have a realistic chance of securing the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft, according to Football Outsiders’ odds.
Let’s take a look at each of those teams and assess the likelihood that they’ll be picking first overall next April:
Cincinnati Bengals
Record: 1-11
59.6% chance of securing No. 1 overall pick per FO
The Bengals didn’t exactly head into the 2019 campaign with the intention of tanking, but that’s what’s happened, as Cincinnati didn’t secure its first victory until last week. With Andy Dalton now back under center, the Bengals certainly stand a better chance of winning another game or two than they would have under rookie three-game starter Ryan Finley. But there’s still a very real — and perhaps even likely scenario — in which Cincinnati finished 1-15 en route to selecting LSU quarterback Joe Burrow first overall.
Like the Bengals, the Giants are also turning back to their old starter, albeit involuntarily. With Daniel Jones nursing an ankle sprain, Eli Manning could potentially start Big Blue’s four remaining games. They’ll get to face the reeling Eagles twice over the next four weeks, and will also go up against two other clubs — Miami and Washington — which are also vying for the No. 1 pick. With Jones already in tow, New York isn’t going to draft another quarterback, so it could either trade down (not a favorite tactic of general manager Dave Gettleman) or select a generational defender like Ohio State’s Chase Young with the first overall pick.
The Dolphins’ tanking efforts haven’t exactly gone according to plan, but that’s okay, as Miami’s players have continued to go hard for first-year head coach Brian Flores, with the club winning three of its last five games. While it doesn’t appear the Dolphins are going to secure the top pick in next year’s draft, they do still have an outside shot at doing so, especially given that they’ll play both the Giants and Bengals over the next month.
The only team on this list that will definitively have a new head coach in 2020, the Redskins probably lost any chance they had at the No. 1 pick by surprisingly defeating the Panthers in Week 13 (and may have gotten Carolina head coach Ron Rivera fired in the process). Of all the teams vying for the first overall pick, Washington faces arguably the most difficult schedule, as they’ll square off with three teams that are still contending for the postseason.
So what do you think? Which of these teams will be first at the podium when the 2020 draft rolls? Vote below (link for app users):
The NFC’s contender class (non-NFC East contingent) has separated from the pack, giving the conference a clear top five going into December. With the NFC-leading 49ers set for a historically brutal late-season stretch, cases can be made for each of the top five moving to the home-field advantage bracket position.
While the Cowboys and Eagles are almost certainly vying for the conference’s No. 4 seed, the 49ers, Saints, Seahawks, Packers and Vikings comprise one of the more interesting pursuits of a conference’s No. 1 slot in recent memory. Week 17 in the NFC may not feature many starters resting.
Armed with the ninth-best defensive DVOA figure through 11 games in the Football Outsiders-developed metric’s 34-season history, the 49ers carry a 10-1 record into the regular season’s final month. They made a statement in the first leg of their difficult three-game stretch, a defensive line-keyed rout of the Packers, but still have games in Baltimore and New Orleans (both oddly staying in the early-Sunday time slot) on tap. The 49ers also conclude their season with a Seattle trip. They have not won in Seattle since 2011, when Tarvaris Jackson was at the controls for the Seahawks, and have not earned a playoff bye in seven years.
While the 49ers have the NFL’s second-toughest schedule remaining, the Seahawks’ remaining SOS is not much easier. Their final five games double as the seventh-most difficult stretch run. Seattle (9-2, No. 8 in DVOA) is 9-2 but won in San Francisco during a 6-0 road start. Following their home tilt against the Vikings, who lost in Seattle on a Monday night in December 2018, the Seahawks have a road Rams game scheduled before meetings with the Panthers and Cardinals.
New Orleans does not have it any easier, with the league’s fifth-toughest slate remaining. After the 49ers, however, the Saints (10-2, No. 6 in DVOA) face the Colts at home before outdoor games in Nashville and Charlotte. Since 1994, only the Seahawks (2013-14) and Eagles (2002-04) have earned the NFC’s No. 1 seed in back-to-back years. Illustrating the stakes for the Saints: they are 6-1 at home in the playoffs under Sean Payton, with the loss obviously coming in controversial fashion last season, and 1-5 on the road during the Payton-Drew Brees era.
The Vikings (8-3, No. 7 DVOA) sit 11th in the December SOS rankings but do have each of their divisional home games remaining, with a “road” game against the Chargers mixed in. Were they to stick the landing and reach the playoffs, it would mark an extraordinarily rare run. With no Viking quarterback helping the team to two postseason berths since Daunte Culpepper, Kirk Cousins guiding Minnesota to January football would make six different starting quarterbacks since Culpepper’s 2004 season to lead the Vikings to the playoffs.
With two of their worst offensive games of the decade occurring in November trips to Los Angeles and San Francisco, the Packers (8-3, No. 10 DVOA) have cooled off considerably. They do, however, have by far the easiest road to January among the NFC’s premier quintet. Only the Eagles and Browns face a worse run of opponents than the Packers, who draw the Giants, Redskins, Bears and Lions. The Packers have not earned a playoff bye in five years but appear a stealth threat to make such a push this season.
So which of the NFC’s powers will end up securing home-field advantage? Vote in PFR’s latest poll (link for app users) and weigh in with your thoughts on this race in the comments section.
Once again, the NFC has presented more depth this season. Two current non-division-leading teams have eight wins, raising the floor for what it will take to bring road whites to a postseason game in that conference. The AFC has a few obvious contenders, but several teams can be included on “In the hunt” graphics despite .500-or-worse records.
Prior to seeing the Colts start 1-5 and make the playoffs last season, the AFC saw the 1-5 2015 Chiefs go 11-5. This season may not feature a second-half surge on that level, but the conference has a few teams occupying its middle class that are not yet building for the future.
If the season ended today, two teams in the 6-4 Colts-Texans-Raiders contingent would make the playoffs. But the Titans (5-5), Steelers (5-5), Browns (4-6) and Jaguars (4-6) are still technically in the race. Of the 163 teams to start 4-6 in the six-team playoff era (1990-present), only 13 (8%) made the playoffs. That number jumps up to 29% (40-for-138) for 5-5 teams.
Tennessee, which benched Marcus Mariota during a 16-0 shutout loss in Denver, has rallied under Ryan Tannehill. The former Dolphins starter has completed 71% of his passes and has helped the Titans to wins in three of his four starts. The Titans rank fourth in run-defense DVOA but among these fringe contenders sport the lowest overall DVOA ranking (23rd), though some of that stems from Mariota’s starts. Tennessee is also this quartet’s only team with a positive point differential at plus-6. (The Raiders, for reference, have a minus-25 differential.) The Titans close their season with five winning teams on their schedule — by far the toughest among this group.
The Steelers and Browns each play two teams with winning records apiece down the stretch. Neither has presented a particularly formidable passing attack, the latter’s struggles representing one of this season’s biggest surprises given Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry being on Baker Mayfield‘s side. An offense-geared team for the past several years, Pittsburgh ranks third in defense DVOA and 28th offensively. But will the T.J. Watt– and Minkah Fitzpatrick-powered unit be enough to aid Mason Rudolph (31st in Total QBR) to any kind of relevant stretch run? The Browns have won two straight and have three games left against the Bengals and Dolphins, but Freddie Kitchens‘ team has proven to be unreliable and undisciplined. And that was with former defensive player of the year candidate Myles Garrett, who is likely out for the season’s remainder.
Although the Jaguars may look like the longest-odds team here, they outflank each of these mid-pack outfits with a No. 16 DVOA ranking. Most of that work came with Gardner Minshew at quarterback, but three of the Jags’ wins came against the Bengals, Jets and Broncos. Jacksonville also has yielded 200-plus rushing yards on three occasions, undercutting D.J. Chark‘s breakout season and Leonard Fournette‘s bounce-back effort somewhat. But Jacksonville also faces just two teams with winning records (Oakland, Indianapolis) down the stretch. Nick Foles also has a notable history of late-season rallies.
With the Bills already 7-3 and the Raiders playing just one team with a winning record the rest of the way, this year’s AFC might be feature a thinner playoff pursuit. But which of these aforementioned teams has the best chance of staying in the playoff race well into December? Vote in PFR’s latest poll (link for app users) and weigh in with your thoughts on this year’s playoff race in the comments section.
Jalen Ramsey wants out. The Jaguars, meanwhile, don’t necessarily want to let him go.
The Jags’ star cornerback has been frustrated for some time – he’s been openly campaigning for a top-of-the-market extension, but the Jaguars have been mostly unwilling to have serious talks with him. Then, this season, he had a major blowup with head coach Doug Marrone.
On the field, Ramsey is upset that he has been utilized in zone coverage, even though he ranks as one of the league’s best man-to-man defenders. Off the field, he wants to secure the bag, though he no longer wants that bag to come from the willing hands of owner Shad Khan.
Reportedly, it will take an “astronomical” offer for the Jags to part with him, but that could just be an attempt by the Jaguars to improve their leverage. Meanwhile, roughly every other team in the NFL has at least some interest, but they’re scared off by the draft capital required since acquiring Ramsey would also mean giving him a fat contract.
Of course, a first-round pick from, say, the Patriots, does not carry the same value as a first-round pick from, say, the Dolphins. But – we want to know: if you were an NFL GM, would you be willing to cough up two first-round picks for Ramsey, with the knowledge that you would also have to give him an extension north of $75MM?
Cast your vote below (link for app users) and back up your choice in the comments.
We’ve nearly reached the daily-update stage of the Cowboys’ contract matrix. Even after the team extended Jaylon Smith, who would have been a 2020 RFA, its three stars remain on rookie contracts. With no news of Amari Cooper progress coming, and the fifth-year wide receiver indicating comfort in playing out a contract year, we will limit this to Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott hypotheses.
Both marquee Cowboys have been in the news constantly this month. Multiple reports pegged Prescott as turning down a $30MM-per-year deal, with another indicating he wants to surpass Russell Wilson‘s $35MM-AAV mark to become the NFL’s highest-paid player. Elliott, meanwhile, returned to Mexico after a Jerry Jones joke that did not go over well. Elliott’s holdout is nearing a month. Will the Cowboys resolve these situations by Week 1?
Prescott is entering his contract year, doing so in the same type of situation Wilson did four years ago. After he drove a hard bargain all summer, the Seahawks quarterback signed an August extension rather than play on a third-round salary for a fourth season. A 2016 fourth-round pick, Prescott faces the prospect of a $2MM 2019 salary.
Elliott is under contract for two more seasons, thanks to the fifth-year option, but he’s accumulated a historic workload and may not be in as strong of a negotiating position next year were he to go through 2019 on a similar pace. Elliott’s holdout makes sense from that perspective, and he does not intend to play another down on his rookie contract. Despite Jones talking up rookie Tony Pollard, Elliott is a two-time rushing champion and has been essential in the Cowboys’ recent success.
How will the Cowboys proceed with Elliott and Prescott? Vote in PFR’s latest poll (link for app users) and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.
The Bills are going to be an interesting team in 2019. They’ve got a lot of young talent, but how the team does will almost entirely come down to the development of Josh Allen. Allen showed a lot of flashes as a rookie, but he also struggled with his accuracy and decision-making.
To be fair, Allen was playing behind a ragtag offensive line and with one of the worst receiving corps in the league. Buffalo made upgrading both areas a priority this offseason, and they made some big moves. They completely overhauled their group of pass-catchers, signing Cole Beasley and John Brown in free agency. They also signed center Mitch Morse to become the new anchor of their offensive line, and highly-regarded tackle Ty Nsekhe who had spent the previous few years in a reserve role with Washington.
To help replace the retiring Kyle Williams, they drafted defensive tackle Ed Oliver out of Houston ninth overall. The defense is stacked, and they were one of the best units in the league last year. The Bills finished 6-10 last season, which was good for third place in the division.
The Dolphins are widely expected to take a big step back, which means it’ll either be the Bills or Jets behind the Patriots in the AFC East pecking order next season. Buffalo made the playoffs in 2017 with a 9-7 record, and that seems to be a reasonable goal. Head coach Sean McDermott has been widely praised for the culture he’s instilled during his couple of years with the Bills, but everything will ultimately fall on Allen’s shoulders.
So, what do you think? Will Allen take the next step with an improved group of weapons and offensive line, or will he be unable to put it all together? Will the Jets and Sam Darnold pass them in the AFC East, or will the Bills separate themselves?
Cast your vote below (link for app users) and back up your choice in the comments section:
The Redskins are heading into a pivotal season. Everything we’ve heard this offseason has indicated that Jay Gruden will be coaching for his job, so there will be a lot of pressure for the team to win in 2019. Washington quietly started the year 6-2 last year and appeared destined for the playoffs, but Alex Smith‘s devastating injury derailed their season and they went just 1-7 the rest of the way.
The team hit the reset button under center, and will be one of only a couple of teams with an open quarterback competition in camp. They traded for Case Keenum, and drafted Dwayne Haskins in the first round. The team has insisted they’ll be patient with Haskins, but with Gruden being on the hot seat he won’t be able to wait too long if Keenum falters. Last we heard, Redskins owner Dan Snyder was planning on being involved in the decision on who to start, which will surely rankle the fanbase.
The team’s defense took major strides last year, and they have the chance to be even better in 2019. They signed safety Landon Collins to a big contract in free agency, which is a big upgrade to the secondary. They’ll also have running back Derrius Guice back, who missed his entire rookie season with an ACL tear.
You’ll also need to monitor the situation with left tackle Trent Williams, who has been staying away from the team. If Williams forces his way out which seems possible, it’d be a huge blow to their offensive line. Washington has had terrible injury luck the past couple of years, and they’ve already had major health issues yet again this season. Back in May, projected starting linebacker Reuben Foster tore his ACL, and he’ll miss the entire year.
Even with the way things have gone, there are reasons to be optimistic due to the presence of Haskins and young stud defensive linemen like Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne. Receiver Paul Richardson should also provide a boost, as his first season with the team last year was also ruined by injury.
So, what do you think? Will the Redskins have better luck in 2019, or will things go off the rails yet again?
Cast your vote below (link for app users) and back up your choice in the comments section:
For three straight seasons, the Titans have finished with a 9-7 record. Naturally, Las Vegas has set their over/under around the eight-win mark, and they might be one of the trickiest plays for gamblers in 2019.
This wasn’t a flashy offseason for the Titans, but they did make some quietly savvy moves. With injury questions surrounding starting quarterback Marcus Mariota, they added former Dolphins starter Ryan Tannehill as a backstop. If Mariota stays healthy, he’ll have Adam Humphries and rookie A.J. Brown as new targets and distractors for defenses who may key in on incumbent Corey Davis. Meanwhile, they beefed up the interior offensive line by signing Rodger Saffold, who graded out as Pro Football Focus’ ninth-best guard in the NFL last year, and drafted Nate Davis in the third-round, who could be primed to unseat Kevin Pamphile for a starting role.
On the other side of the ball, the Titans picked up Cameron Wake and first-round pick Jeffery Simmons to bolster their lackluster pass rush, and they should easily offset the retirement of Brian Orakpo and the potential departure of Derrick Morgan, who remains in free agent limbo. The common thread to the Titans offseason across every position group is this – they didn’t grab headlines, but they made some smart under-the-radar moves without losing a whole lot in the process.
How do you see things playing out for the Titans? Will they, at minimum, reach the .500 mark?
Cast your vote below (link for app users) and back up your choice in the comments section:
After the Giants shocked the world with their No. 6 overall selection, could they be poised to shock everyone all over again in the regular season?
It has been a trying few years for the G-Men – a rash of injuries spoiled their 2017 season, and 2018 wasn’t much better. The Giants turned on the jets in the middle part of the season, but it was too little too late after a dreadful 1-7 start.
This offseason, the Giants moved on from multiple stars, though they stopped short of a complete rebuild. They shipped out Odell Beckham Jr. after his off-field distractions started to outweigh his on-field contributions. They moved defensive end Olivier Vernon to the Browns as well, recouping guard Kevin Zeitler, safety Jabrill Peppers, a first-round pick, and a third-round pick. Those trades weren’t especially popular with Giants fans, but their most controversial move might have been allowing star safety Landon Collins to walk without the franchise tag.
This much is clear: GM Dave Gettleman isn’t afraid to go against the grain to get what he wants. The replacements for OBJ and Vernon offer decidedly less in name value, but team brass is hoping that the character of Golden Tate and upside of Markus Golden will offset their departures.
A skeptic might say that the rival Jets have more upside and star power in their favor, but the Giants believe that Eli Manning can turn back the clock and allow them to bring along Daniel Jones at a slower pace. Meanwhile, they have an improved interior offensive line to block for Saquon Barkley.
One Vegas oddsmaker has pegged the Giants for a 4-11 record, splitting their difference between their last two seasons. Do you have more faith in the G-Men than the bookies? Or do you feel the Giants are on course for another top 10 pick?
Cast your vote below (link for app users) and back up your choice in the comments section:
Mike Florio of PFT touched on the possibility today, while noting the obvious barriers: Brown is still waiting to find out whether he’ll be hit with a suspension of his own and the PR backlash would be enormous.
