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Poll: What Will Be The Super Bowl LII Matchup?

January 19th, 2018 at 8:45pm CST by GregGoldstein

It’s almost here! Super Bowl LII is just a few weeks away, and by Sunday night, we will know what teams will get the chance to play for the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Championship weekend is headlined by a team that everyone thought would be here and three others that have overcome the odds for their opportunity to play under the brightest of lights on February 4. But what will that matchup be come when all is set and done on Sunday? Here are the breakdowns of all four teams that are now a win away from appearing in the Super Bowl.

New England Patriots (14-3)

The defending Super Bowl champs will play in their seventh straight AFC championship game. They’ve won two of the past three Super Bowls and have the greatest coach-quarterback combo in the history of football. However, even entering the playoffs as the favorite, New England has still faced some challenges in the last few weeks. The organization had to deal with a bombshell report that cited major drama between the three most powerful people in the Pats franchise. Despite the story, the team made easy work of the Titans in the divisional round. They’ll face a much tougher test on Sunday against the Jaguars, and they will have to win with Tom Brady dealing with a thumb injury. The five-time Super Bowl winner will almost assuredly be playing this weekend, but it could put more pressure on the team’s stable of running backs to make plays in the rushing and passing game. The Pats defense took a big step up in terms of pressuring Marcus Mariota and a repeat performance in that aspect will go a long way in the Pats getting to their second straight Super Bowl.

Jacksonville Jaguars (12-6)

The Jags were expected to beat the Bills in the Wild Card round, but pulled off an upset of the Steelers in the Divisional round. Blake Bortles and the offense picked up the pace last Sunday, and they’ll need to continue that type of production in order to keep up with the Patriots in the AFC Championship. The team is still led by a fast and opportunistic defense that can cause turnovers at any time. If they can get pressure on Brady, especially with an injured thumb, they may be able to provide their offense with some breathing room throughout the game. The formula remains the same if the Jags are to pull an even bigger shocker on Sunday. They must run the ball, control the clock, play stellar defense and mix in some big plays if they hope to play in their first Super Bowl about two weeks from now.

Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)

The Eagles were a rare underdog as a number one seed in the second round of the playoffs. However, Nick Foles and the offense were just productive enough for the defense to hold the Falcons out of the end zone late in the fourth quarter. Philadelphia is going to need a better effort against a better Vikings team that is possibly the most complete team in football. The Eagles ran the ball a ton last Saturday and found a nice rhythm offensively when Doug Pederson allowed Foles to have options to either pass or run later in the game. They’ll likely do this again to help their quarterback think less and find Alshon Jeffery, Zach Ertz and others for first downs. The Eagles defense led by the likes of Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, Derek Barnett, Vinny Curry and Timmy Jernigan need to force mistakes and give the offense some short fields so they can put enough points o the board to win the game and advance to the team’s second-ever Super Bowl.

Minnesota Vikings (14-3)

Mike Zimmer‘s squad doesn’t seem to have a weakness on their roster. They can run the ball with Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon. They have an explosive passing game that can work in the redzone or down the field with weapons like Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen and Kyle Rudolph. The defense has playmakers in every unit as well, so it’s tough for the opposing offense to exploit a certain area when on the field. Nevertheless, the team needed the “Minnesota Miracle” at the end of the game against the Saints in order to advance further into the postseason. They’ll face a different type of team in the Eagles who are more based of their pass rush and controlling the clock. The Vikings will be favored on Sunday because of the way Case Keenum is playing compared to Foles. But the Eagles won’t likely roll over because of the great front seven and the mistakes that they can create on passing downs. Minnesota’s offensive line could be the key to a victory because it would allow Keenum to find his playmakers on the outside to help put up points and force the Eagles to take their chances on Foles’ arm to win the game.

Poll: Who’s The Super Bowl Favorite?

December 22nd, 2017 at 8:45pm CST by GregGoldstein

The playoff picture is starting to come into fruition with just two weeks remaining in the regular season. But is there a clear favorite for who will be holding the Vince Lombardi Trophy come the conclusion of Super Bowl 52?

The defending champion Patriots are coming off a dramatic road win over the Steelers, but have shown clear weaknesses. Pittsburgh will also be getting Antonio Brown back during the postseason, so the matchup could be more evenly matched should they meet for a second time in January.

However, while New England and Pittsburgh are the clear front runners in the AFC, the NFC has a number of teams that could be considered the “favorite” entering postseason play. Although the Eagles don’t have star second-year quarterback Carson Wentz, the team will likely have home field advantage with a very well rounded roster. The Vikings, Saints and Rams have all had their moments where they look like the team to beat as well. You can also see the defending NFC champ Falcons, Panthers and even the the Cowboys advancing now that they have Zeke back in the fold.

Here’s further breakdowns of the likely Super Bowl favorites with the end of the regular season inching ever closer:

New England Patriots: Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are simply the best coach-quarterback duo that this league has ever seen. The pair is set up perfectly to go to their seventh straight AFC championship game after beating the Steelers in Week 15. Both haven’t let age slow them down either. At 40 years old, Brady is the front runner for NFL MVP once again and his team is clicking late in the season. The Pats has a ton of weapons on offense and their defense is improving as the year goes along, which is typical of Belichick coached squads. This team isn’t unbeatable as they do have a few bad losses in 2017, but playoffs and New England have gone side-by-side since the team won their first Super Bowl back in 2002.

Pittsburgh Steelers: If Jesse James would have held onto the ball during the final drive in last Sunday’s instant classic matchup, then the Steelers would be 13-2 and have a very clear path to the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, it didn’t work out that way for Mike Tomlin and Co., so they will likely have to win on the road in January in order to secure the AFC Championship. Nevertheless, Ben Roethlisberger is playing his best football of the season right now and Le’Veon Bell may be the best overall offensive weapon in the game at the moment. Although, the loss of middle linebacker Ryan Shazier certainly does put the defense in a bit of a hole. But the offense with the expected return of their star wideout can score with anyone and will give the Steelers a chance in any game.

Philadelphia Egales: If Carson Wentz was healthy, the Eagles would clearly the best team in football. Now with Nick Foles at the helm, they are clearly still a good team, but just not even close to as dominant as they were with their second-year signal caller on the field. Still, as you could see in the their Week 15 victory over the Giants, Philadelphia found a way to win thanks to the overall quality of their roster. Without Wentz, the defense will have to shoulder more of the load, but the likes of Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, Chris Long, Nigel Bradham and others should be up to the task. The trade for Jay Ajayi also seems much more crucial now as there will likely be more of an emphasis on the running game. Foles is serviceable quarterback, but the Eagles will have to elevate in other areas in order to even win a postseason game in the difficult NFC.

Minnesota Vikings: Case Keenum was not the name you expected to see when talking about which quarterback led his team to a first round bye. However, that is the case and he’s been playing like it will translate to postseason football. The journeyman signal caller has been excellent this season, but his weapons have really risen to the occasion as well. Wide receiver Adam Thielen has solidified himself as one of the league’s best, Stefon Diggs is as talented as ever and Kyle Rudolph has been a touchdown machine. Even without Dalvin Cook, Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon have performed very well with increased workloads. The defense remains one of the best that the NFL has to offer led by the likes of Everson Griffen, Eric Kendricks, Xavier Rhodes and Harrison Smith. This team lacks real star power, but doesn’t have a noticeable weakness, which will make them very dangerous come playoff time.

Los Angeles Rams: The Rams have been a nice story all year long, but it wasn’t until their beatdown of the Seahawks on the road that you can see them advancing deep into the postseason. Head coach Sean McVay is the clear front runner for Coach of the Year and he has his team clicking on all cylinders at the moment. Todd Gurley has a case as the top offensive player in football and Jared Goff has made incredible strides after how he performed just a season ago. Robert Woods, Sammy Watkins and Cooper Kupp lead a solid group of receivers. Plus when you have Aaron Donald on defense, it’s easy to get pressure on opposing QB’s. This team has many ways to beat you and is very well coached. That’s something that very much converts in January football.

New Orleans Saints: Foles, Keenum, Goff and Drew Brees. Only one of those is a Super Bowl winner. While the top three teams according to record in the NFC all have their strengths, there’s something to be said for experience, and New Orleans has that at head coach and behind center. But while Brees has been very good this year, the team is actually led by Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara coming out of the backfield. They can ground and pound better than any team in the league, which is something that can help them control the clock in a postseason contest. The defense has also been one of the biggest surprises in the NFL this year as they can take the ball away at any moment. The Saints control the game offensively and can force mistakes defensively, which is a formula that has worked for postseason success in the past and should continue to bring positive results in the future.

Poll: Where Will Eli Manning Play In 2018?

December 9th, 2017 at 5:58pm CST by Sam Robinson

The status of Eli Manning no doubt played a part in the Giants firing Jerry Reese and Ben McAdoo, and their departures opened the door for the 14th-year quarterback to be reinstalled as Big Blue’s starter for Week 14.

But Manning’s future remains cloudy regardless of him being given his job back. Two years remain on the soon-to-be 37-year-old passer’s contract, but with base salaries of $10.5MM and $11.5MM in 2018 and ’19, Manning should receive some interest if the Giants are indeed keen on moving on without him.

With a month left to play, the Giants stand to hold the No. 2 pick behind the Browns. That is certainly quarterback territory, with Josh Rosen expected to come out and Sam Darnold a reasonable bet to follow suit. Wyoming’s Josh Allen is also viewed as a first-round prospect, and he’s expected to declare early as well. John Mara instructed his front office to ramp up quarterback evaluations as this season began to go south, and given the sequence of events that led the franchise to be in position to acquire Manning in the first place, the Giants turning its first awful season since that seminal 2003 campaign into another first-round quarterback wouldn’t be shocking.

However, if the Giants don’t finish with a bad enough record to land in quarterback territory — or if the next GM believes enough talent is present to keep Manning and the veteran-laden defense that booked a 2016 playoff berth together — that could change things. Manning threw 35 touchdown passes two years. His play’s dropped off a bit since, but Big Blue’s had severe offensive line issues the past two seasons.

There figures to be interest if Manning does leave. He plans to play next season, and GMs told CBS Sports’ Jason La Canfora a reunion with Tom Coughlin makes too much sense not to happen. Coughlin spoke up in his former charge’s defense after he was benched.

The Jaguars can shed Blake Bortles‘ contract free of charge after the season, and their work this fall has shown what the defensively powered team is capable of with a bottom-tier quarterback. That could be attractive to Manning, the Jags’ lack of a comparable football tradition or similar media market (compared to his current team) notwithstanding. Although, both Allen Robinson and Marqise Lee are pending UFAs, leaving the pass-catching crew uncertain. But Manning could certainly improve their chances at pushing for a Super Bowl berth compared to Bortles.

The other presumptive suitor may trail the Jaguars, since it’s not known if the Broncos would consider it. But Denver’s two primary passers this season are Pro Football Focus’ two lowest-graded players at sports’ premier position. The Broncos’ pass defense has fallen off its otherworldly perch of the past two years, but thanks to improved run-stoppage ability, the unit overall ranks fifth. And with Paxton Lynch having shown little before and during an injury-marred 2017, the Broncos — who have the core of their Super Bowl defense still under contract through 2018, with most signed through at least ’19 — could be back in the mix with better quarterback play.

While the Broncos obviously had immense success with Peyton Manning, they did not opt to pull the trigger on Tony Romo in a similar situation this offseason. One of the most durable players in NFL history, Eli Manning would not bring the health issues those two icons did. But the Broncos appear to be behind the Jaguars in this figurative derby to this point due to the Jags having a less complicated route to acquiring him, and Coughlin’s presence figures to make a big impact if Manning does opt to waive his no-trade clause in the event of a Giants rebuild.

The Dolphins are not believed to be interested. Neither are the Cardinals. The Vikings have three passers on expiring deals and a loaded defense, but it would stand to reason they’d rather retain one of them than pursue an older quarterback.

So, who gets Manning next season? Does the Giants’ about-face point him back to New York for a 15th season, or does their 2-10 record lead the franchise to fully embrace a rebuild? Is the Jaguars connection too obvious not to occur, or would John Elway consider a second Manning to elevate his franchise?

Or does Manning take the Romo route and retire as a Giant, having been one of the most important players in franchise history and having guided the historic operation to two Super Bowl titles? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section!

Poll: Should The Chiefs Start Patrick Mahomes?

November 26th, 2017 at 8:33pm CST by GregGoldstein

The Chiefs looked to be one of the best teams in the NFL after a 5-0 start. However, the team has taken a nosedive as of late, losing three straight games and dropping five out of their past six.

A major reason for the hot start had been the outstanding play they’d been getting from veteran quarterback Alex Smith. Known as one of the better game managers at the position, Smith had been criticized for his inability to carry the Chiefs to victory on his own. However, Smith was a legit MVP candidate earlier in the year, throwing the ball down field more, while continuing to limit mistakes. The team already had a solid roster across the board, considering that they finished as the AFC’s second best team heading into the playoffs last season. Smith also was given exciting playmakers in TE Travis Kelce, WR Tyreek Hill and rookie RB Kareem Hunt.

Still, even with all these weapons and a weak conference, the Chiefs find themselves in a real fight to just make the playoffs. This has led to speculation that Kansas City could turn to rookie backup Patrick Mahomes for a little shot in the arm. Although the team clearly thinks highly of their 2017 first round pick, head coach Andy Reid stayed committed to Smith after the Chiefs loss today.

That’s not where I am at right now,” Reid said in today’s postgame press conference (Twitter link via Ian Rapoport of NFL.com).

Reid is notably close to the vest, but even he can’t deny that his team is in a bad way right now. Replacing Smith with Mahomes would be a huge risk considering that despite his great raw ability, the former Texas Tech QB was classified as incredibly raw coming into the draft.

It’s a storyline that we didn’t think would hold any credence given the Chiefs fast start, but there might be increased noise to make this move if Kansas City can’t turn things around in the weeks to come.

Poll: Who Takes The Final AFC Playoff Spot?

November 19th, 2017 at 9:18pm CST by GregGoldstein

While the NFC is crowded with a bunch of playoff caliber teams, the AFC only has five teams above .500. The Steelers and Patriots are the clear favorites at 8-2, while the Chiefs, Jaguars and Titans look like solid bets to make the postseason. The intrigue stems from what AFC team will win that sixth and final playoff spot, despite the franchises in the hunt looking mostly average to put it nicely. At the moment, the Ravens are second wild card at 5-5. The Bills are also .500 with the Chargers, Bengals, Raiders, Dolphins, Jets and Texans all trailing by a game at 4-6. It looks like nine wins could be enough to sneak into the postseason, with even eight wins being a distinct possibility when looking at the remaining schedule.

Baltimore Ravens (5-5): The Ravens are clearly led by their defense. The team has collected 16 interceptions over the first ten games of the season, with the unit led by the likes of Jimmy Smith, Eric Weddle, Terrell Suggs, C.J. Mosley, Michael Pierce and Brandon Williams. The secondary is very strong and deep and the front seven has been much better at stopping the run since the aforementioned Williams returned from injury. The offense on the other hand, has trouble moving the football to say the least. Joe Flacco ranks as the 31st QB in the league so far this year with the team having to overcome injuries from many of their best offensive players including Marshal Yanda, Ronnie Stanley, Mike Wallace, Jeremy Maclin and Danny Woodhead among others. It goes without saying that this type of offense will struggle to keep up with the likes of the Pats and Steelers in the playoffs, but Baltimore seems to be best positioned to make a run at the second wild card when looking at their schedule and current roster.

Buffalo Bills (5-5): The Bills have taken a nosedive since what was a promising early season start. Head coach Sean McDermott has turned to rookie Nathan Peterman to take over for veteran signal caller Tyrod Taylor, which led to horrible results. The team appears to be in shambles after being blown out by the likes of the Saints and Chargers over the past two weeks. LeSean McCoy is still dynamic and gives them a clear identity on offense, and the defense has playmakers all around. But this has not been winning franchise this past decade and without a clear signal caller to lead the way, their playoff prospects are clearly not looking as good as they were when this month started.

Miami Dolphins (4-6): The Dolphins 2017 season is going downhill fast after dropping four games in a row since opening the year 4-2. The team already got rid of a main component of their offense in running back Jay Ajayi, and while the team’s ground attack hasn’t suffered too much, the defense has been plagued by inconsistent play in the secondary with two inexperienced corners on the outside. Neither Matt Moore or Jay Cutler look like playoff quarterbacks right now and Adam Gase seems to be losing control of the team. The second AFC wild card from a year ago has so much negative momentum going for them at the moment, it seems difficult to envision them going on a run with the roster they have. There is offensive and defensive talent to build around for the future, but it’s going to take some extra magic to get this team turned in the right direction after what has transpired over this past month.

New York Jets (4-6): The Jets were a pleasant surprise early on, proving a lot of people wrong who said they were clearly tanking for a young quarterback when the season began. However, New York has come back to earth with the team showing obvious flaws, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Josh McCown has performed admirably with many unproven players that surround him, however you wouldn’t say the passing game is a real threat. The running game is inconsistent and the passing game has been mediocre apart from a few big plays per game from either Robby Anderson or Jermaine Kearse. The defense has a lot more talent, but I think much of the Jets success stems from an easy early season schedule. Their slate gets much more difficult after the bye they just had, so it’s going to be tough to hang around when you haven’t proved to be able to beat playoff caliber teams this season. It’s an encouraging year for Todd Bowles for sure, but a playoff berth does not seem likely.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-6): Despite the team looking lost at many points through the first 11 weeks of the season, the Bengals did enough to win an “elimination” game in Denver. Andy Dalton is on the better end of the QB spectrum when looking at this list and A.J. Green is still on of the best receivers in football. Joe Mixon hasn’t broken out as many thought, but he’s still a very talented runner that is getting more and more experience. The defense has been opportunistic, but isn’t a great unit. The team is really just mediocre, but that type of roster may have a place in the postseason this year because of the evident drop off in talent in the conference. Cincy has already lost to Baltimore at home, which puts them in a hole, but they have a playoff pedigree and the talent to separate themselves from the teams in the hunt.

Houston Texans (4-6): Houston looked primed for a playoff spot with the way Deshaun Watson was playing in his first stint in the NFL. Unfortunately, thanks to a knee injury, the former Clemson QB is out for the season and the team’s postseason outlook looks much worse because of it. Tom Savage led the Texans to their first win of the season since Watson went down when they beat the Cardinals today, but it’s tough to see the them consistently win games with Savage at the helm. The team has taken hits all season long in regards to injury with J.J. Watt, Whitney Mercilus, Will Fuller and Watson all missing time, plus they had to deal with Duane Brown holding out early in the season. It’s a credit to Bill O’Brian for keeping them relevant at this point in the season, but without their key playmakers, it’s going to be tough to win at least the four games they need to in order to sneak into the playoffs.

Los Angeles Chargers (4-6): Philip Rivers and co. could be in a much better position if they had solved their field goal kicking problems earlier in the season, but the newly located franchise still makes a solid case for being that final AFC playoff team. Rivers’ play has dropped off in his 14 year in the NFL, but he still ranks way above most of the quarterbacks in this race. The offense also have two of the better players at their positions in Keenan Allen and Melvin Gordon to go along with breakout candidates in the second half of the season like Austin Ekler and Mike Williams. The defense is led by two great pass rushers in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram who are always capable of making a game altering type play. The offensive line and defensive backfield have their weaknesses, but the Chargers are more talented than many teams vying for this second wild card.

Oakland Raiders (4-6): Despite being blown out of Mexico City at the hands of the Patriots, the Raiders still have a path to getting to the postseason. On the glass half full side, the team has the best QB of this group in Derek Carr, who is a true playoff caliber signal caller with weapons all around. We’ve seen them put it together at times, although it’s nothing like the system they had moving in 2016. The offensive line is still a strength and Marshawn Lynch has been better in recent weeks too. The defense and schedule is the big question here. With a well below-average secondary makes it tough for the team to limit big plays, so they’re going to have to win a lot of shootouts if they hope to win this final postseason spot. The schedule is much tougher than others in the race, so upsets are going to have to be pulled, but the talent is notable and they should remain in the hunt considering the general lack of quality football that’s been played by team’s hoping to overtake them in the final six weeks of the regular season.

Poll: Who’s the Best Backup QB Right Now?

November 3rd, 2017 at 7:45pm CST by GregGoldstein

Right now there’s a lot of news about the guys holding the clipboard over the past few weeks. Injuries to starting quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, Andrew Luck, Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer, Sam Bradford have forced backup quarterbacks into long-term starting action.

But unfortunately, injuries have become commonplace in the game, it’s what has transpired with the trade news and other stories that have sort of set this season apart from years past in terms of the number two’s on the QB depth chart.

The trade deadline showed one of the league’s brightest backups backups get moved in Jimmy Garoppolo and another almost get dealt (A.J. McCarron) if not for some poor timing at the the hands of the Cleveland Browns.

Speaking of Cleveland, they’ve been going back and forth with their two main QB options in DeShone Kizer and Kevin Hogan. The Vikings are down to their third string too in Case Keenum, who has of course led them to a 6-2 record thus far.

Denver is in the midst of a signal caller fiasco too as the team has officially replaced incumbent starter Trevor Siemian with former starter then backup and now starter again Brock Osweiler. Throw in injury scares to Joe Flacco, Jameis Winston and yes even Jay Cutler and you have your eye on who’s your team’s backup more than ever before.

In all, 15 backup quarterbacks have seen the field this season and that number will most certainly increase before the year is through. So with league’s clipboard holders in the news more than ever, I pose the question…of all the backups in the game the today who would you feel most confident in leading you to a win right now?

It should be noted that this list excludes the likes of Garoppolo and Siemian because while these two are currently number two’s on the depth chart, neither is really classified as a typical long-term backup.

Poll: Who Will Win AFC South?

October 27th, 2017 at 3:54pm CST by Sam Robinson

The AFC’s top three seeds from the 2016 playoffs are each 5-2 and viewed as central threats to represent the conference in Super Bowl LII, but there are a few intriguing teams vying for the AFC’s fourth mandated home game.

With the Patriots, Steelers and Chiefs looking like solid favorites to repeat as division champions, the AFC South profiles as the conference’s most competitive race. And with two of the teams vying for the title on bye, this looks like a good time to assess midseason stock.

Three teams enter Week 8 with three losses, and one of those has yet to claim this division’s title since the NFL reorganized its divisions in 2002.

Often involved in free agent pursuits in recent years with little on-field results to show for the investments, the Jaguars are 4-3 and may have the best AFC South unit. A blend of highly paid UFAs and blossoming homegrown talents on defense have the Jags as a legitimate contender despite annual struggles piecing together a competent passing game. The Jags won the A.J. Bouye and Calais Campbell sweepstakes, and these acquisitions are paying off for the now-Tom Coughlin-run franchise.

Campbell’s midway through a career year, leading the NFL with a career-high 10 sacks in seven games, despite being 31 and joining a 4-3 scheme after years in a 3-4 look. Pro Football Focus ranks Bouye ninth among cornerbacks, with Jalen Ramsey sitting third in what’s been the best-graded tandem in football. These talents, along with No. 4 overall pick Leonard Fournette, are buoying a still-anemic passing attack.

Can the Jags’ defense and No. 1-ranked (by far) run game spearhead this surprise season if Blake Bortles continues to operate at this level? If so, it would be the franchise’s first division title since winning the AFC Central in 1999.

The two teams picked by most to vie for this division’s home playoff game, the Texans and Titans each have three losses near the midway point. Neither has the eye-popping numbers Jacksonville’s pass rush or ground game has generated, but both Deshaun Watson and Marcus Mariota have offered superior work to Bortles. And in a league where successful teams can be correlated with quarterback play, that obviously matters most.

Thus far, Watson is bailing out the Texans after their reckless Brock Osweiler contract and rewarding the franchise’s bold Round 1 trade. The Clemson-honed dynamo’s recent run has enhanced the two-time reigning AFC South champs’ offense, and the Texans largely stood pat otherwise this offseason after devoting plenty of resources to augmenting their offense in 2016. Houston, though, losing J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus — after Bouye departed — could pose a problem at some point. The Texans rank 11th in total defense after leading the league last season.

Houston also looks to have the toughest closing schedule with road dates against both fellow AFC South contenders, along with this weekend’s trip to Seattle and a Christmas Day game against the Steelers.

Tennessee’s been the least consistent of this contending trio, beating the Seahawks and routing the Jags before giving up 57 points in Houston and needing overtime to beat the Browns. The Titans’ loss to the Dolphins could be blamed on Mariota’s hamstring injury, but it doesn’t look like the trendy preseason pick will be able to stay on its current wayward pace and lock up a playoff berth.

New Titans corners Logan Ryan and Adoree’ Jackson haven’t shown upper–echelon work just yet, and Corey Davis has seen action in just one game. The Titans look to redeploy their top draft choice in Week 9, and this should benefit a passing game that’s largely depended on holdover Rishard Matthews rather than the flashy new additions of Davis and Eric Decker. Tennessee still possesses a dangerous run game, and Derrick Henry‘s receiving more work, and probably has the best offensive line of the contending trio.

With Andrew Luck possibly set to redshirt this season after enduring a setback, the 2-5 Colts do not appear likely to factor into this race. They’ve lost four of its five games by at least two touchdowns, and it’s looking like the end of the line for Ryan Grigson hire Chuck Pagano.

So, who wins this division? Can Watson complete a push for offensive rookie of the year by leading the Texans to a third straight division title? Or is the Jaguars’ resurgence built to last? Can the Titans overcome their inconsistency and ride Mariota to their first playoff berth in nine years? Is there a Colts miracle in the works? Vote in PFR’s latest poll.

Poll: Which Team Is NFC Favorite?

October 21st, 2017 at 4:19pm CST by Sam Robinson

The NFC lost its top difference-making presence in Week 6, and while Aaron Rodgers is not a lock to miss the rest of the season despite undergoing collarbone surgery, the Packers are without their perennial MVP candidate for at least the next two months. That figures to be a key factor in shaping the NFC race.

As it stands, Carson Wentz‘s progression has the Eagles with the NFL’s best record at 5-1. But a host of NFCers are just behind. And without these Eagles having the kind of pedigree the Rodgers-era Packers do, it seems the NFC’s home-field advantage pursuit is wide open.

Philadelphia’s taken a noticeable step forward, with Wentz developing quickly from intriguing non-Division I-FBS prospect to a player who looks like a bona fide franchise passer. The Eagles rank No. 2 in DVOA, illustrating their potential (although, Football Outsiders had the franchise’s 2016 7-9 iteration at No. 4, so perhaps this isn’t as illuminating as it would appear). Nevertheless, the Eagles are in a better position post-Rodgers setback.

But the NFC’s other surprise contender sits fourth on that DVOA list through six weeks, with the 4-2 Rams slotting in high in that category. These two teams lead the NFC in point differential at plus-43 (Eagles) and plus-41, with Sean McVay playing a key role in transforming the Los Angeles pass offense from the league’s worst to one that’s 10th thus far.

The Rams, however, could not beat the Seahawks at home for a fourth straight year and obviously don’t possess the proven capabilities the Russell Wilson-fronted team does. Seattle stands to benefit from Green Bay’s setback, housing a veteran-stacked roster — one that lost to the Packers in Week 1 — that’s secured five straight postseason berths.

Rodgers going down certainly changes the complexion of the NFC North. The Vikings, whose past five playoff appearances have come with five different starting quarterbacks, are 4-2 without the benefit of an upper-echelon passer. Sam Bradford may return this season, and Teddy Bridgewater‘s progress is certainly encouraging, but this could be Case Keenum‘s operation for a while. Minnesota’s standout defense notwithstanding, is that enough to prop up the Vikes to their second NFC North title in three years?

The North champions in five of the past six seasons, the Packers are not planning to pursue UFA quarterbacks. Mike McCarthy emphatically said third-year backup Brett Hundley is his guy. Green Bay faced this situation before but did make a midseason switch after Scott Tolzien struggled replacing Rodgers in 2013. Matt Flynn re-signed and went 2-2 to help keep the team afloat until Rodgers returned in Week 17. He of 11 pass attempts prior to entering Sunday’s game, Hundley does not possess Flynn’s experience. So it’s hard to determine how the Packers will look without their centerpiece.

Thanks to Atlanta not yet showing the kind of form it did during its Super Bowl season, the South may be the NFC’s toughest division to handicap. The Falcons, Panthers and Saints each have two losses and each has a former first-team All-Pro at quarterback.

New Orleans’ defense looks to be improved (15th in DVOA), and that could make a big difference in supplementing Drew Brees — who’s had to carry porous defenses for years. Luke Kuechly‘s third concussion in three seasons stands to wound the Panthers, who have received better work from Cam Newton lately after a brutal start, as long as the stalwart linebacker’s out. But this nucleus also has a history of booking January home games and shouldn’t be discounted despite a sluggish 2016. The Falcons (17th in DVOA but fifth in total offense) obviously have the potential to repeat as South champs; it just doesn’t figure to be as easy as it was in 2016.

So who is the best bet to emerge from this pack now that the conference’s top weapon is out of the picture? Are teams like the Lions, Redskins or Cowboys legitimate darkhorse candidates? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.

Poll: Best NFC Free Agent Addition?

October 7th, 2017 at 7:31pm CST by Dallas Robinson

A quarter of the NFL season is now in the books, which means we can accurately grade each and every free agent signing, right? Right?

Even if that’s not the case, it’s still possible to get a sense of how free agents are playing and whether they’re living up to their contacts through four games. After taking a look at the AFC on Friday, today we examined the best free agent signing on each NFC club before asking you to vote on the top overall NFC addition.

One note: we only looked at newcomers, so free agents that re-signed with their original clubs (Panthers defensive tackle Kawann Short or Cardinals edge rusher Chandler Jones, for example) aren’t included. On to the list!

Arizona Cardinals

Antoine Bethea, S: General manager Steve Keim & Co. have made a habit of adding aging veterans — especially on the defensive side of the ball — with success, and the Cardinals have seemingly done so again in the form of Bethea. Playing alongside Tyrann Mathieu and another age-30+ defensive back in Tyvon Branch, Bethea has managed one interception and three pass breakups while helping Arizona to the No. 12 ranking in defensive DVOA. And his three, $12.75MM deal can be easily escaped if he does begin to show signs of wearing down later on in 2017.

Atlanta Falcons

Dontari Poe, DT: After narrowly missing out on a Super Bowl title earlier this year, the Falcons decided to run it back, returning in 2017 with much of the same roster. Poe was Atlanta’s major addition on defense, as the club waited until the athletic defensive tackle’s market fell enough to allow it to ink him to a one-year, $8MM pact. Poe, who was regularly playing more than 1,000 defensive snaps with the Chiefs, is on pace to play on roughly 750 defensive snaps this season, and limiting his action could be helping his overall performance. Through four games, the Falcons are 13th in pressure rate, up from 20th in 2016.

Carolina Panthers

Julius Peppers, DE: Peppers, now in his second stint with the Panthers, was hardly Carolina’s most high-priced free agent signing this spring. That honor goes to $55MM man Matt Kalil, who has been — perhaps unsurprisingly — underwhelming at left tackle. The Panthers are playing Peppers on a reduced snap count, and the 37-year-old has already put up 4.5 sacks through a quarter of the season. He’s an absolute freak of nature who can still bend the edge with ease.

Chicago Bears

N/A: The signing of free agent Mike Glennon clearly hasn’t worked out, as the veteran signal-caller was benched after four games. The rest of Chicago’s additions, a list that includes cornerbacks Marcus Cooper and Prince Amukamara and wideouts Markus Wheaton and Kendall Wright, have also been sub-par. Quintin Demps could have been the choice here, but he’s now on injured reserve after breaking his arm.

Dallas Cowboys

N/A: The Cowboys allowed most of their secondary to walk out the door during free agency, and veteran Nolan Carroll was their only real external addition. He’s been one of the worst defensive backs in the league in 2017.

Detroit Lions

Ricky Wagner, T: Detroit upgraded at both right guard and right tackle this offseason, swapping out Larry Warford and Riley Reiff for T.J. Lang and Wagner. Although both new Lions linemen have been efficient thus far, the nod goes slightly to Wagner. Both Lang and Wagner are earning the same $9.5MM annual salary, but Wagner is three years younger and under team control for a longer period. Additionally, the Lions average more yards (4.41 to 3.04) when running around the right end than through the center/guard.

Green Bay Packers

Jahri Evans, G: In a sequence that is completely out of character, the Packers actually signed a number of outside free agents over the past several months, including cornerback Davon House (a former Packer) and front seven defenders Ahmad Brooks, Quinton Dial, and Ricky Jean-Francois. But the best newcomer is on the offensive side ball, as Jahri Evans has played every snap for Green Bay. A lifelong Saint until 2017, Evans has helped the Packers’ offensive line to a No. 3 ranking in adjusted line yards at a cost of only $2.25MM.

Los Angeles Rams

Andrew Whitworth, T: Perhaps no other club made a larger upgrade at one position than the Rams did in going from draft bust Greg Robinson to Whitworth at left tackle. The entire Rams’ offense, including quarterback Jared Goff and Todd Gurley, has gone from looking completely incompetent to leading the league in points scored. Even at the age of 35, Whitworth leads all tackles in pass rush productivity and has allowed only one pressure, per Pro Football Focus.

Minnesota Vikings

Mike Remmers, T: The Vikings overpaid for both Remmers and left tackle Riley Reiff, but both deals have allowed Minnesota to return to average along the offensive line, a massive step-up from their 2016 front five. Remmers is earning nearly half of what Reiff is making but ranks slightly ahead of the former Lion in PFF’s offensive tackle rankings. Additionally, Remmers hasn’t allowed a sack this season, and the Vikings have been much better at running right than left.

New Orleans Saints

Larry Warford, G: Warford replaced another player on this list (Jahri Evans) and has continued to perform as a solid NFL guard. On an offensive line that’s seen some reshuffling due to injuries to Terron Armstead and Zach Strief, the Saints’ interior — which also includes left guard Andrus Peat and center Max Unger — has remained stable. New Orleans has been excellent at running up the middle, as the club ranks sixth with 4.62 yards per carry behind its center or guards. The Saints control the 26-year-old Warford through the 2020 campaign.

New York Giants

N/A: Brandon Marshall has yet to top 70 yards receiving in a game, and managed only two receptions in Weeks 1-2. And the signing of fullback/tight end Rhett Ellison never made sense given how much 11 personnel (one back, one tight end) the Giants run. He’s earning $4.5MM annually and has five total receptions.

Philadelphia Eagles

LeGarrette Blount, RB: Although he’s not going match his NFL-leading 18 rushing touchdowns from 2016, Blount has already shown that he’s worth the one-year, $1.25MM deal he inked with the Eagles earlier this year. He’s averaging 5.9 yards per carry thus far, and he figures to be even more involved in Philadelphia’s offense following injuries to Darren Sproles and Wendell Smallwood. Tough as ever, Blount managed 127 of his 136 Week 4 yards after contact.

San Francisco 49ers

Brandon Fusco, G: The 49ers and new general manager John Lynch spent a good deal of money this offseason, handing $10MM+ in guarantees to veterans such as wide receiver Pierre Garcon (who’s been average at best) and linebacker Malcolm Smith (who suffered a season-ending injury in August). The most astute signing, however, may have been guard Brandon Fusco, who signed for just $1.4MM total. He’s played every offensive snap for San Francisco and graded as the NFL’s No. 18 guard, per PFF, making him a remarkable value.

Seattle Seahawks

Luke Joeckel, G: Joeckel’s one-year, $8MM contract with the Seahawks never made much sense, as the former draft bust hasn’t performed in the NFL and probably didn’t have much of a free agent market. He’s not even playing tackle, which makes the salary all the more confusing. But PFF grades Joeckel as the No. 26 guard in the league, meaning he’s been a starting-caliber offensive lineman through four contests. Plus, it’s hard to fault nearly any single-season pact, no matter the cost.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

DeSean Jackson, WR: Jackson hasn’t been the perfect complemenet to Mike Evans that many projected — while he’s still averaging a robust 17.8 yards per catch, his catch rate is at a career-low 48.3%. Jackson led the league in yards gained off defensive pass interference a season ago, but he’s garnered only one DPI for 15 yards in 2017. Always only play away from a long-distance score, Jackson can still live up to his contract if Tampa Bay’s offense starts clicking.

Washington Redskins

D.J. Swearinger, S: In a defensive backfield that’s without Su’a Cravens (left squad list) and DeAngelo Hall (PUP list), Swearinger — who left the Cardinals for a three-year deal in the nation’s capital — has helped stabilize the Redskins’ secondary. Through a quarter of the season, Washington ranks sixth in defensive DVOA under new coordinator Greg Manusky, a 19-spot leap from 2016.

So, what do you think? Which of the free agents has been the best signing through a quarter of the 2017 season? Vote below, and leave your thoughts in the comments section:

Poll: Best AFC Free Agent Addition?

October 6th, 2017 at 5:56pm CST by Dallas Robinson

A quarter of the NFL season is now in the books, which means we can accurately grade each and every free agent signing, right? Right?

Even if that’s not the case, it’s still possible to get a sense of how free agents are playing and whether they’re living up to their contacts through four games. With that in mind, we examined the best free agent signing on each AFC club before asking you to vote on the top overall AFC addition.

One note: we only looked at newcomers, so free agents that re-signed with their original clubs (Ravens defensive tackle Brandon Williams or Bengals cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick, for example) aren’t included. On to the list!

Baltimore Ravens

Austin Howard, T: No NFL team has been hit harder by injuries in 2017 than the Ravens, and the club’s offensive line hasn’t been immune to health questions. Alex Lewis and Nico Siragusa — both counted on as starters at various points — are done for the season, while All World guard Marshal Yanda is also lost for the year after fracturing his leg in Week 2. Enter Howard, whom Baltimore signed after he was released by the Raiders. The 30-year-old has stepped in at right tackle, playing every offensive snap for the Ravens. While Baltimore’s offensive line still isn’t great (14th in adjusted sack rate, 19th in adjusted line yards), it’s not the disaster that it could have been, and that’s partially thanks to Howard.

Buffalo Bills

Jordan Poyer, S: Poyer had never been a full-time starter when the Bills inked him to a four-year, $13MM deal this offseason, but he’s been excellent through four games with Buffalo. Although he signed for roughly half of fellow free agent addition Micah Hyde‘s contract, Poyer actually tops Hyde in Pro Football Focus‘ safety rankings (No. 8 vs. No. 32). His performance is all the more impressive given that his 2016 campaign ended with a lacerated kidney. Poyer has racked up 15 tackles, two sacks, one interception, and five passes defensed in Sean McDermott‘s defense.

Cincinnati Bengals

Andre Smith, T: Cincinnati originally forged a reunion with Smith with the intent of shifting him to guard, but he’s instead rotated at both left and right tackle behind starters Cedric Ogbuehi and Jake Fisher. A collegiate blindside protector, Smith hadn’t played left tackle in the NFL until now, but he’s been surprisingly efficient. While he’s only played about half the snaps of Ogbuehi and Fisher, that could change if those former early-round draft picks don’t step up their game going forward.

Cleveland Browns

Jason McCourty, CB: Although the Browns dropped a combined $50MM guaranteed on Kevin Zeitler, Kenny Britt, and J.C. Tretter, it’s McCourty — whom Cleveland landed on two-year, $6MM deal — that’s performed the best through four contests. Though he had struggled in recent seasons, the now 30-year-old McCourty has returned to his 2010-13 level of play, as he’s graded as the No. 6 cornerback in the league, per PFF. There’s probably some regression coming, but McCourty has been worth every penny.

Denver Broncos

Ronald Leary, G: In sharp contrast to fellow free agent offensive line signing Menelik Watson (who allowed an astounding six sacks through the first two weeks of the season), Leary has stabilized the right guard position in Denver. The Broncos rank third in the league in rushing (both in yards and yards per carry) and eighth in rushing DVOA, and that’s due in no small part to Leary’s presence. Leary is all the more important given that Denver is currently splitting left guard snaps between Allen Barbre and Max Garcia.

Houston Texans

Marcus Gilchrist, S: The Texans didn’t bring in many free agents this offseason, and offensive tackle Breno Giacomini is the only other addition besides Gilchrist who’s seen significant playing time in 2017. Gilchrist, 28, has always been a solid defensive back, and he’s playing well in Houston’s secondary after a patellar tendon injury shortened his 2016 campaign. He’s only been on the field for 99 defensive snaps so far this season, but his playing time figures to increase as the year progresses.

Indianapolis Colts

Jabaal Sheard, DE: Do you think the Patriots, who have struggled to generate any sort of pass rush, would like to have Sheard back? Although he’s managed only one sack, Sheard has created a ton of pressure, and ranks as the No. 17 edge rusher in the NFL, per PFF. But he’s been even better against the run (No. 3, according to PFF), and he’s been one of the few bright spots on a poor Indianapolis defense. Signed through 2019 at $8.5MM annually, Sheard has been a bargain for the Colts.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Calais Campbell, DE: As they have in past offseasons, the Jaguars ponied up for marquee free agents earlier this year, signing defensive backs A.J. Bouye and Barry Church in addition to Campbell. Through a quarter of the season, Campbell has lived up to his four-year, $60MM contract, as he’s already put up 5.5 sacks and 11.5 pressures, and has played like one of the league’s best pass-rushers. Jacksonville leads the league in adjusted sack rate, and Campbell’s presence has surely assisted second-year pro Yannick Ngakoue‘s in his four-sack campaign.

Kansas City Chiefs

Bennie Logan, DT: The only undefeated team in the NFL, the Chiefs are 4-0 without the help of many external additions. Logan inked a one-year, $8MM pact with Kansas City that was almost fully guaranteed after rejecting a “sizable” extension offer from the Eagles during the 2016 campaign. Logan, 27, has played 155 defensive through four games and served as a run-stuffer, but it’s too early to say whether he made a mistake in turning down a new deal from Philadelphia.

Los Angeles Chargers

Russell Okung, T: Okung’s four-year contract — which made him the NFL’s highest-paid offensive lineman — looked like an overpay from the minute it was signed, but there’s no arguing that Okung has played well since leaving the division rival Broncos for the Chargers. Los Angeles’ offensive line still isn’t good, but that’s not the fault of Okung. The Chargers average 6.03 yards when running around the left end (per Football Outsiders), a figure that ranks fifth in the league.

Miami Dolphins

N/A: Jay Cutler has been indifferent, timid, and inaccurate. Lawrence Timmons went AWOL and was suspended. Ted Larsen is sidelined through midseason at the earliest. Miami swung and missed in free agency.

New England Patriots

Mike Gillislee, RB: The Patriots surprisingly signed cornerback Stephon Gilmore to a five-year, $65MM deal this spring, but the former Bill has looked lost in coverage through four games in New England. Defensive lineman Lawrence Guy has been serviceable but not a difference-maker, leaving Gillislee as the Pats’ best free agent addition thus far. To be clear, Gillislee hasn’t been all that effective (especially after leading the league in yards per carry a season ago), but he’s managed to fall into the end zone four times. Not bad for a two-year, $6.4MM contract.

New York Jets

Morris Claiborne, CB: Similar to the Patriots and Jabaal Sheard, the Cowboys would probably like to have Claiborne back on their roster. While he’s not a shutdown cornerback, Claiborne offers competent play when healthy, and he’s played nearly every defensive snap for the Jets this year. Gang Green got Claiborne for only $5MM over one year, a discount largely due to Claiborne’s injury history. New York ranks 14th in passing defense DVOA.

Oakland Raiders

Jared Cook, TE: The Raiders needed to add another offensive weapon to supplement wideouts Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, and there are signs that Cook can be that third option. And in a season in which Crabtree has already dealt with injury, and Cooper has seemingly forgotten how to catch, Cook could be play an even larger role going forward. He could be especially critical as a safety blanket for EJ Manuel, who is now filling in at quarterback for the injury Derek Carr.

Pittsburgh Steelers

N/A: The only Steelers free agent addition that’s garnered any significant playing time is former Jaguars defensive tackle Tyson Alualu, and he’s been incredibly unproductive on 178 defensive snaps. Cornerback Coty Sensabaugh, who received $425K guaranteed on a two-year pact, has barely played.

Tennessee Titans

Eric Decker, WR: None of the Titans’ free agent signings have been great successes so far, and safety Jonathan Cyprien might have been choice here had he been able to stay healthy. Logan Ryan, too, has been acceptable, but he hasn’t been able to lift Tennessee’s passing defense out of the doldrums. Decker has only posted 12 receptions for 104 yards in 2017, but he’s been a great run-blocking wideout, which is critical in the Titans’ run-first offense. Sure, Tennessee isn’t paying Decker $4MM to block, but he’s at least contributing.

So, what do you think? Which of the free agents has been the best signing through a quarter of the 2017 season? Vote below, and leave your thoughts in the comments section:

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