PFR Polls News & Rumors

Poll: Who Will Earn NFC’s No. 1 Seed?

November 30th, 2019 at 8:23pm CST by Sam Robinson

The NFC’s contender class (non-NFC East contingent) has separated from the pack, giving the conference a clear top five going into December. With the NFC-leading 49ers set for a historically brutal late-season stretch, cases can be made for each of the top five moving to the home-field advantage bracket position.

While the Cowboys and Eagles are almost certainly vying for the conference’s No. 4 seed, the 49ers, Saints, Seahawks, Packers and Vikings comprise one of the more interesting pursuits of a conference’s No. 1 slot in recent memory. Week 17 in the NFC may not feature many starters resting.

Armed with the ninth-best defensive DVOA figure through 11 games in the Football Outsiders-developed metric’s 34-season history, the 49ers carry a 10-1 record into the regular season’s final month. They made a statement in the first leg of their difficult three-game stretch, a defensive line-keyed rout of the Packers, but still have games in Baltimore and New Orleans (both oddly staying in the early-Sunday time slot) on tap. The 49ers also conclude their season with a Seattle trip. They have not won in Seattle since 2011, when Tarvaris Jackson was at the controls for the Seahawks, and have not earned a playoff bye in seven years.

While the 49ers have the NFL’s second-toughest schedule remaining, the Seahawks’ remaining SOS is not much easier. Their final five games double as the seventh-most difficult stretch run. Seattle (9-2, No. 8 in DVOA) is 9-2 but won in San Francisco during a 6-0 road start. Following their home tilt against the Vikings, who lost in Seattle on a Monday night in December 2018, the Seahawks have a road Rams game scheduled before meetings with the Panthers and Cardinals.

New Orleans does not have it any easier, with the league’s fifth-toughest slate remaining. After the 49ers, however, the Saints (10-2, No. 6 in DVOA) face the Colts at home before outdoor games in Nashville and Charlotte. Since 1994, only the Seahawks (2013-14) and Eagles (2002-04) have earned the NFC’s No. 1 seed in back-to-back years. Illustrating the stakes for the Saints: they are 6-1 at home in the playoffs under Sean Payton, with the loss obviously coming in controversial fashion last season, and 1-5 on the road during the Payton-Drew Brees era.

The Vikings (8-3, No. 7 DVOA) sit 11th in the December SOS rankings but do have each of their divisional home games remaining, with a “road” game against the Chargers mixed in. Were they to stick the landing and reach the playoffs, it would mark an extraordinarily rare run. With no Viking quarterback helping the team to two postseason berths since Daunte Culpepper, Kirk Cousins guiding Minnesota to January football would make six different starting quarterbacks since Culpepper’s 2004 season to lead the Vikings to the playoffs.

With two of their worst offensive games of the decade occurring in November trips to Los Angeles and San Francisco, the Packers (8-3, No. 10 DVOA) have cooled off considerably. They do, however, have by far the easiest road to January among the NFC’s premier quintet. Only the Eagles and Browns face a worse run of opponents than the Packers, who draw the Giants, Redskins, Bears and Lions. The Packers have not earned a playoff bye in five years but appear a stealth threat to make such a push this season.

So which of the NFC’s powers will end up securing home-field advantage? Vote in PFR’s latest poll (link for app users) and weigh in with your thoughts on this race in the comments section.

Poll: Which AFC .500-Or-Worse Team Has Best Chance At Playoff Berth?

November 20th, 2019 at 8:06pm CST by Sam Robinson

Once again, the NFC has presented more depth this season. Two current non-division-leading teams have eight wins, raising the floor for what it will take to bring road whites to a postseason game in that conference. The AFC has a few obvious contenders, but several teams can be included on “In the hunt” graphics despite .500-or-worse records.

Prior to seeing the Colts start 1-5 and make the playoffs last season, the AFC saw the 1-5 2015 Chiefs go 11-5. This season may not feature a second-half surge on that level, but the conference has a few teams occupying its middle class that are not yet building for the future.

If the season ended today, two teams in the 6-4 Colts-Texans-Raiders contingent would make the playoffs. But the Titans (5-5), Steelers (5-5), Browns (4-6) and Jaguars (4-6) are still technically in the race. Of the 163 teams to start 4-6 in the six-team playoff era (1990-present), only 13 (8%) made the playoffs. That number jumps up to 29% (40-for-138) for 5-5 teams.

Tennessee, which benched Marcus Mariota during a 16-0 shutout loss in Denver, has rallied under Ryan Tannehill. The former Dolphins starter has completed 71% of his passes and has helped the Titans to wins in three of his four starts. The Titans rank fourth in run-defense DVOA but among these fringe contenders sport the lowest overall DVOA ranking (23rd), though some of that stems from Mariota’s starts. Tennessee is also this quartet’s only team with a positive point differential at plus-6. (The Raiders, for reference, have a minus-25 differential.) The Titans close their season with five winning teams on their schedule — by far the toughest among this group.

The Steelers and Browns each play two teams with winning records apiece down the stretch. Neither has presented a particularly formidable passing attack, the latter’s struggles representing one of this season’s biggest surprises given Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry being on Baker Mayfield‘s side. An offense-geared team for the past several years, Pittsburgh ranks third in defense DVOA and 28th offensively. But will the T.J. Watt– and Minkah Fitzpatrick-powered unit be enough to aid Mason Rudolph (31st in Total QBR) to any kind of relevant stretch run? The Browns have won two straight and have three games left against the Bengals and Dolphins, but Freddie Kitchens‘ team has proven to be unreliable and undisciplined. And that was with former defensive player of the year candidate Myles Garrett, who is likely out for the season’s remainder.

Although the Jaguars may look like the longest-odds team here, they outflank each of these mid-pack outfits with a No. 16 DVOA ranking. Most of that work came with Gardner Minshew at quarterback, but three of the Jags’ wins came against the Bengals, Jets and Broncos. Jacksonville also has yielded 200-plus rushing yards on three occasions, undercutting D.J. Chark‘s breakout season and Leonard Fournette‘s bounce-back effort somewhat. But Jacksonville also faces just two teams with winning records (Oakland, Indianapolis) down the stretch. Nick Foles also has a notable history of late-season rallies.

With the Bills already 7-3 and the Raiders playing just one team with a winning record the rest of the way, this year’s AFC might be feature a thinner playoff pursuit. But which of these aforementioned teams has the best chance of staying in the playoff race well into December? Vote in PFR’s latest poll (link for app users) and weigh in with your thoughts on this year’s playoff race in the comments section.

Poll: Is Jalen Ramsey Worth Two First-Round Picks?

October 4th, 2019 at 11:24am CST by Zachary Links

Jalen Ramsey wants out. The Jaguars, meanwhile, don’t necessarily want to let him go.

The Jags’ star cornerback has been frustrated for some time – he’s been openly campaigning for a top-of-the-market extension, but the Jaguars have been mostly unwilling to have serious talks with him. Then, this season, he had a major blowup with head coach Doug Marrone.

On the field, Ramsey is upset that he has been utilized in zone coverage, even though he ranks as one of the league’s best man-to-man defenders. Off the field, he wants to secure the bag, though he no longer wants that bag to come from the willing hands of owner Shad Khan.

With that in mind, the Jaguars seem to be following the old axiom of “Don’t tell them no. Tell ’em how much it’ll cost.” The asking price was initially set at two first-round picks for Ramsey. Now, it has advanced to two first-round picks, plus more. The Jaguars did secure an offer of two first-round picks, but they declined, because the offer came from a contending club that is likely to pick near the backend of the draft.

Reportedly, it will take an “astronomical” offer for the Jags to part with him, but that could just be an attempt by the Jaguars to improve their leverage. Meanwhile, roughly every other team in the NFL has at least some interest, but they’re scared off by the draft capital required since acquiring Ramsey would also mean giving him a fat contract.

Of course, a first-round pick from, say, the Patriots, does not carry the same value as a first-round pick from, say, the Dolphins. But – we want to know: if you were an NFL GM, would you be willing to cough up two first-round picks for Ramsey, with the knowledge that you would also have to give him an extension north of $75MM?

Cast your vote below (link for app users) and back up your choice in the comments.

Poll: Cowboys’ Contract Situation

August 22nd, 2019 at 8:32pm CST by Sam Robinson

We’ve nearly reached the daily-update stage of the Cowboys’ contract matrix. Even after the team extended Jaylon Smith, who would have been a 2020 RFA, its three stars remain on rookie contracts. With no news of Amari Cooper progress coming, and the fifth-year wide receiver indicating comfort in playing out a contract year, we will limit this to Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott hypotheses.

Both marquee Cowboys have been in the news constantly this month. Multiple reports pegged Prescott as turning down a $30MM-per-year deal, with another indicating he wants to surpass Russell Wilson‘s $35MM-AAV mark to become the NFL’s highest-paid player. Elliott, meanwhile, returned to Mexico after a Jerry Jones joke that did not go over well. Elliott’s holdout is nearing a month. Will the Cowboys resolve these situations by Week 1?

Dallas has done well to take care of its homegrown players in recent years. Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick and Zack Martin are all on long-term contracts. The Cowboys extended DeMarcus Lawrence and Dez Bryant as well and just gave Smith $19MM fully guaranteed. But the team has angled for its current batch of standouts to take less for the greater good. Judging by Prescott’s comments on that subject this summer, and Elliott remaining in Mexico despite receiving an offer reportedly north of the Le’Veon Bell–David Johnson tier, the players do not look to have this strategy in mind.

Prescott is entering his contract year, doing so in the same type of situation Wilson did four years ago. After he drove a hard bargain all summer, the Seahawks quarterback signed an August extension rather than play on a third-round salary for a fourth season. A 2016 fourth-round pick, Prescott faces the prospect of a $2MM 2019 salary.

Elliott is under contract for two more seasons, thanks to the fifth-year option, but he’s accumulated a historic workload and may not be in as strong of a negotiating position next year were he to go through 2019 on a similar pace. Elliott’s holdout makes sense from that perspective, and he does not intend to play another down on his rookie contract. Despite Jones talking up rookie Tony Pollard, Elliott is a two-time rushing champion and has been essential in the Cowboys’ recent success.

The Cowboys also have Byron Jones and La’el Collins entering contract years, though the team having drafted Connor Williams and Connor McGovern may be a sign Collins will be allowed to test free agency. The defending NFC East champions have amassed perhaps their best talent core since their 1990s group, but the steps toward retaining it long-term have been elusive (and frustrating?) for the franchise. Although Jones remains confident in deals being finalized, we are now within two weeks of opening night.

How will the Cowboys proceed with Elliott and Prescott? Vote in PFR’s latest poll (link for app users) and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.

POLL: Will The Bills Reach .500 In 2019?

July 6th, 2019 at 2:28pm CST by Andrew Ortenberg

The Bills are going to be an interesting team in 2019. They’ve got a lot of young talent, but how the team does will almost entirely come down to the development of Josh Allen. Allen showed a lot of flashes as a rookie, but he also struggled with his accuracy and decision-making.

To be fair, Allen was playing behind a ragtag offensive line and with one of the worst receiving corps in the league. Buffalo made upgrading both areas a priority this offseason, and they made some big moves. They completely overhauled their group of pass-catchers, signing Cole Beasley and John Brown in free agency. They also signed center Mitch Morse to become the new anchor of their offensive line, and highly-regarded tackle Ty Nsekhe who had spent the previous few years in a reserve role with Washington.

To help replace the retiring Kyle Williams, they drafted defensive tackle Ed Oliver out of Houston ninth overall. The defense is stacked, and they were one of the best units in the league last year. The Bills finished 6-10 last season, which was good for third place in the division.

The Dolphins are widely expected to take a big step back, which means it’ll either be the Bills or Jets behind the Patriots in the AFC East pecking order next season. Buffalo made the playoffs in 2017 with a 9-7 record, and that seems to be a reasonable goal. Head coach Sean McDermott has been widely praised for the culture he’s instilled during his couple of years with the Bills, but everything will ultimately fall on Allen’s shoulders.

So, what do you think? Will Allen take the next step with an improved group of weapons and offensive line, or will he be unable to put it all together? Will the Jets and Sam Darnold pass them in the AFC East, or will the Bills separate themselves?

Cast your vote below (link for app users) and back up your choice in the comments section:

POLL: Will The Redskins Reach .500 In 2019?

July 5th, 2019 at 6:50pm CST by Andrew Ortenberg

The Redskins are heading into a pivotal season. Everything we’ve heard this offseason has indicated that Jay Gruden will be coaching for his job, so there will be a lot of pressure for the team to win in 2019. Washington quietly started the year 6-2 last year and appeared destined for the playoffs, but Alex Smith‘s devastating injury derailed their season and they went just 1-7 the rest of the way.

The team hit the reset button under center, and will be one of only a couple of teams with an open quarterback competition in camp. They traded for Case Keenum, and drafted Dwayne Haskins in the first round. The team has insisted they’ll be patient with Haskins, but with Gruden being on the hot seat he won’t be able to wait too long if Keenum falters. Last we heard, Redskins owner Dan Snyder was planning on being involved in the decision on who to start, which will surely rankle the fanbase.

The team’s defense took major strides last year, and they have the chance to be even better in 2019. They signed safety Landon Collins to a big contract in free agency, which is a big upgrade to the secondary. They’ll also have running back Derrius Guice back, who missed his entire rookie season with an ACL tear.

You’ll also need to monitor the situation with left tackle Trent Williams, who has been staying away from the team. If Williams forces his way out which seems possible, it’d be a huge blow to their offensive line. Washington has had terrible injury luck the past couple of years, and they’ve already had major health issues yet again this season. Back in May, projected starting linebacker Reuben Foster tore his ACL, and he’ll miss the entire year.

Even with the way things have gone, there are reasons to be optimistic due to the presence of Haskins and young stud defensive linemen like Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne. Receiver Paul Richardson should also provide a boost, as his first season with the team last year was also ruined by injury.

So, what do you think? Will the Redskins have better luck in 2019, or will things go off the rails yet again?

Cast your vote below (link for app users) and back up your choice in the comments section:

Poll: Will The Titans Reach .500 In 2019?

July 3rd, 2019 at 3:00pm CST by Zachary Links

For three straight seasons, the Titans have finished with a 9-7 record. Naturally, Las Vegas has set their over/under around the eight-win mark, and they might be one of the trickiest plays for gamblers in 2019.

This wasn’t a flashy offseason for the Titans, but they did make some quietly savvy moves. With injury questions surrounding starting quarterback Marcus Mariota, they added former Dolphins starter Ryan Tannehill as a backstop. If Mariota stays healthy, he’ll have Adam Humphries and rookie A.J. Brown as new targets and distractors for defenses who may key in on incumbent Corey Davis. Meanwhile, they beefed up the interior offensive line by signing Rodger Saffold, who graded out as Pro Football Focus’ ninth-best guard in the NFL last year, and drafted Nate Davis in the third-round, who could be primed to unseat Kevin Pamphile for a starting role.

On the other side of the ball, the Titans picked up Cameron Wake and first-round pick Jeffery Simmons to bolster their lackluster pass rush, and they should easily offset the retirement of Brian Orakpo and the potential departure of Derrick Morgan, who remains in free agent limbo. The common thread to the Titans offseason across every position group is this – they didn’t grab headlines, but they made some smart under-the-radar moves without losing a whole lot in the process.

How do you see things playing out for the Titans? Will they, at minimum, reach the .500 mark?

Cast your vote below (link for app users) and back up your choice in the comments section:

Poll: Will The Giants Reach .500 In 2019?

July 2nd, 2019 at 3:48pm CST by Zachary Links

After the Giants shocked the world with their No. 6 overall selection, could they be poised to shock everyone all over again in the regular season?

It has been a trying few years for the G-Men – a rash of injuries spoiled their 2017 season, and 2018 wasn’t much better. The Giants turned on the jets in the middle part of the season, but it was too little too late after a dreadful 1-7 start.

This offseason, the Giants moved on from multiple stars, though they stopped short of a complete rebuild. They shipped out Odell Beckham Jr. after his off-field distractions started to outweigh his on-field contributions. They moved defensive end Olivier Vernon to the Browns as well, recouping guard Kevin Zeitler, safety Jabrill Peppers, a first-round pick, and a third-round pick. Those trades weren’t especially popular with Giants fans, but their most controversial move might have been allowing star safety Landon Collins to walk without the franchise tag.

This much is clear: GM Dave Gettleman isn’t afraid to go against the grain to get what he wants. The replacements for OBJ and Vernon offer decidedly less in name value, but team brass is hoping that the character of Golden Tate and upside of Markus Golden will offset their departures.

A skeptic might say that the rival Jets have more upside and star power in their favor, but the Giants believe that Eli Manning can turn back the clock and allow them to bring along Daniel Jones at a slower pace. Meanwhile, they have an improved interior offensive line to block for Saquon Barkley.

One Vegas oddsmaker has pegged the Giants for a 4-11 record, splitting their difference between their last two seasons. Do you have more faith in the G-Men than the bookies? Or do you feel the Giants are on course for another top 10 pick?

Cast your vote below (link for app users) and back up your choice in the comments section:

Poll: Who Is The 2019 NFC Favorite?

June 30th, 2019 at 9:05pm CST by Sam Robinson

Unlike the AFC, where the same team has been the annual favorite for a few years now, the NFC has featured different Patriots opponents over the past three seasons. Since the Packers’ back-to-back Super Bowl appearances in 1996-97, only the 2013-14 Seahawks have repeated as conference champions.

When determining who should be considered the 2019 NFC favorite, we should first look at conference’s two best 2018 teams. While the Saints have one of NFL history’s greatest arguments for being the team that should have gone to a Super Bowl, the Rams did. Both teams bring back most of their core players.

The Rams lost more than the Saints this offseason, with their big-spending 2018 helping lead to the departures of Rodger Saffold, Lamarcus Joyner and Ndamukong Suh. Los Angeles brought back Dante Fowler and added Clay Matthews, giving the two-time reigning NFC West champions much bigger names on the edge than the ones that opened the ’18 season as starters, and signed Eric Weddle to replace Joyner. The Rams will trot out two new offensive linemen, likely 2018 mid-round picks Joseph Noteboom (at left guard) and Brian Allen (center). Cooper Kupp is also on track for Week 1. But Todd Gurley‘s status overshadows the rest of the Rams’ lineup; the team has kept information about its two-time All-Pro running back’s knee injury close to the vest.

Lagging just behind the Rams in Super Bowl LIV odds, the Saints lost Mark Ingram but added Latavius Murray. Max Unger retired, but New Orleans added both free agent Nick Easton and second-round pick Erik McCoy. The 2018 trades the Saints made left them without first-, third- and fourth-round picks this year, limiting their ability to enhance their roster cheaply. Drew Brees heads into his age-40 season, and while his arm strength may not be what it once was, he broke his own completion percentage record and was Pro Football Focus’ top-graded QB last season. The cogs chiefly responsible for the Saints’ No. 6 weighted DVOA defensive ranking also return.

The next tier, per Vegas, features the double-doink game’s participants. The Eagles were again active this year, bringing back DeSean Jackson and replacing Michael Bennett with Malik Jackson. Zach Brown also headed to eastern Pennsylvania on a low-cost deal. Philadelphia brought back Brandon Graham and Ronald Darby and extended Jason Kelce. Carson Wentz‘s extension will hit future Eagles caps harder, but his 2019 number ($8.393MM) helps Howie Roseman‘s ability to fortify the roster. After a busy 2018 free agency, the Bears had a quiet offseason. They lost DC Vic Fangio, the NFL’s assistant coach of the year, and may be in line for changes under replacement Chuck Pagano. Scrutinized quarterback Mitch Trubisky (No. 3 in 2018 QBR, No. 18 in Football Outsiders’ DYAR metric) obviously has the biggest say in where the Bears go.

Two out of the past three NFC champions missed the playoffs the year prior, and Vegas places the Packers as the top such candidate for 2019. Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur have expressed a difference of opinion about Green Bay’s offensive structure, but the Packers enjoyed their most active offseason in years. Brian Gutekunst spent wildly on edge rushers, with both Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith now each a top-five highest-paid 3-4 outside linebacker, and brought in Adrian Amos for $9MM annually. Did they do enough to get back in the Super Bowl mix?

While the Cowboys re-routed their season after their Amari Cooper trade, Las Vegas is not bullish on their chances. Dallas sits at 25-to-1 Super Bowl odds, the same as Seattle, Minnesota and San Francisco. Despite their NFC East title, the Cowboys ended last season as the No. 21 DVOA team.

The Seahawks lost one of the top receivers in franchise history, with Doug Baldwin retiring at age 30, and traded their best pass rusher. Ziggy Ansah and first-round pick L.J. Collier represent the team’s top edge options. Minnesota is all-in on this nucleus, with the Anthony Barr deal furthering Rick Spielman‘s massive financial commitments to the core he built. Do the Vikings (ninth in weighted DVOA last season) have enough talent to justify these expenses?

Will a team emerge unexpectedly? The 49ers have Jimmy Garoppolo set to suit up again and, after acquiring Dee Ford and Nick Bosa, boast their best edge corps in years. Are the Falcons (40-1) being undervalued? Vote in PFR’s latest poll (link for app users) and weigh in with your NFC assessments in the comments section.

Poll: Will The Jets Reach .500 In 2019?

June 27th, 2019 at 1:30pm CST by Zachary Links

The Jets entered the 2018 offseason full of hope and a boatload of cap room. They emerged with the best available cornerback in Trumaine Johnson and drafted a potential franchise quarterback in Sam Darnold, giving them reason to believe in the coming year. The Jets hardly expected to contend, but they looked the part of a team that could make some noise and at least finish in the middle of the pack.

That, of course, isn’t how things played out. The Jets finished the year 4-12, failing to improve on their five-win season in 2017.

With that, the Jets were in an eerily familiar position this offseason. Gang Green had more than $100MM in cash to burn and, once again, owned the No. 3 overall pick in the draft.

Much of their free cap space went to signing Le’Veon Bell, much to the chagrin of new head coach Adam Gase. In April, the Jets used the third pick to select defensive tackle Quinnen Williams – regarded by most as the best player available – rather than addressing more pressing needs, such as their lackluster edge rush. After signing the biggest star on the open market and overseeing one of the most crucial drafts in franchise history, GM Mike Maccagnan was given the heave-ho in favor of Eagles executive Joe Douglas.

The Jets’ past draft blunders and internal discord have been well-documented, but despite all their warts, the Jets have real talent on both sides of the ball. If Darnold is able to take a leap forward in 2019 and Bell is able to quickly shake off the rust, the Jets just might have a balanced attack good enough to keep defenses honest. Gang Green also boasts a quietly dangerous group of receivers, headlined by Robby Anderson, Quincy Enunwa, and Jamison Crowder.

Meanwhile, the Jets boast a fearsome interior defensive line and a serious upgrade at inside linebacker after C.J. Mosley supplanted Darron Lee. And, in the middle of the secondary, they have a young and exciting tandem of Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye.

Can Adams’ strong coverage skills offset the Jets’ possible deficiencies at cornerback? Can the Williamses do enough damage up front to allow the Jets’ iffy edge rush unit to penetrate the backfield? Can the arrival of two-time Pro Bowler Kelechi Osemele help to fortify the Jets’ offensive line?

If the answer to those questions is “yes,” then the Jets just might be a competitive football club in 2019.

Will the Jets reach or break the .500 mark this season? Cast your vote below (link for app users) and back up your choice in the comments section.

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