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Poll: Who Will Win NFC North?

October 25th, 2024 at 10:10pm CST by Nikhil Mehta

The NFC North has been the best division in football this season. All four teams reside above .500 and carry a combined 19-7 record (.733 winning percentage) that far outpaces the other seven divisions’ marks.

If the season ended today, all four NFC North teams would make the playoffs, which would be the first time an entire division qualified for the postseason since the NFL added a third wildcard in 2020 (it was impossible for this to occur from 2002-19). But each team will be aiming to win the division, which would guarantee home-field advantage in the wild-card round and potentially beyond.

The Lions finished Week 7 atop the division at 5-1 with a plus-62 point differential that leads the NFC. Jared Goff is playing at an MVP level after signing a massive extension in May, leading an offense that ranks second in the league with 6.4 yards per play. Detroit has largely carried over its success under offensive coordinator Ben Johnson from last season after spending most of their money this offseason on internal extensions for Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Penei Sewell, and Taylor Decker. A two-game suspension for Jameson Williams will force other playmakers to step up in the coming weeks, but the backfield duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery has churned out almost 200 yards from scrimmage per game this season.

The Lions focused on defense for their external additions in the offseason, trading for Carlton Davis and signing D.J. Reader and Marcus Davenport in free agency. After giving up 24.3 points per game in 2023, the seventh-most in the league, Detroit has surrendered just 20 points per game this year, the ninth-fewest. Injuries have plagued the unit, however, with Davenport and Derrick Barnes suffering season-ending injuries and Aidan Hutchinson‘s Defensive Player of the Year campaign coming to a screeching halt with a broken tibia and fibula in Week 7.

Hutchinson does have an outside shot to return if the Lions make the Super Bowl, but he won’t play again in the regular season, depriving the defense of its most impactful pass rusher and run defender. Detroit has the third-hardest strength of schedule remaining; its remaining opponents have a combined .581 winning percentage. The Lions may need to look for edge-rushing help at the trade deadline to withstand the losses of Hutchinson and Davenport. They checked in with Haason Reddick‘s camp, before he ended his Jets holdout, and are believed to be interested in Za’Darius Smith.

The Vikings started the season as the NFL’s hottest team, stringing together five straight wins before back-to-back losses to the Lions and the Rams dropped them to 5-2 and second place in the NFC North. Minnesota underwent a minor roster overhaul this offseason, letting Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter walk in free agency and replacing them with less expensive options in Sam Darnold and Jonathan Greenard. The surplus money went toward Justin Jefferson‘s record-setting contract as well as veteran free agents like Aaron Jones, Andrew Van Ginkel, Blake Cashman, and Shaquill Griffin. The Vikings also traded up twice in the draft to select Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy with the 10th overall pick, though a preseason meniscus tear prematurely ended his rookie year.

Kevin O’Connell is an early frontrunner for Coach of the Year after resurrecting the career of Darnold, the No. 3 pick in the 2018 draft. The Vikings’ offense ranks sixth with 26.9 points per game on the back of another dominant start from Jefferson, while Brian Flores‘ defense has allowed just 19.6 points per game with one of the league’s best run defenses and relentless blitzing against the pass. Their 0.545 strength of schedule remaining is the seventh-hardest in the league, but the easiest of the NFC North, giving them a solid chance at retaking the division lead by the end of the season.

The third-place Packers are also 5-2, with a loss to the Vikings already on their record. They managed to win two games with Malik Willis, whom they acquired via trade with the Titans in August, at quarterback after Jordan Love‘s Week 1 MCL sprain. Green Bay made Love the highest-paid player in NFL history in July, and he has delivered thus far with an average of 270.2 yards and three touchdowns through the air per game this year.

Love’s quick recovery from injury and return to high-level play bodes well for his long-term future as a franchise quarterback. The Packers also extended Kenny Clark and signed Xavier McKinney and Josh Jacobs to free agency contracts during the offseason as they moved on from veterans David Bakhtiari, De’Vondre Campbell, and Aaron Jones.

The Packers’ 11 turnovers committed this season rank are the fourth-most in the league, but their 6.1 yards per play and 26.6 points per game are both top-seven marks. If they can take care of the football, they should finish as one of the NFL’s best offenses. The defense, meanwhile, ranks in the top 10 of both points per game and yards per play allowed with a league-leading 17 turnovers. Green Bay’s .544 strength of schedule remaining is the fifth-hardest in the NFL, but the team has avoided major injuries to key players.

The 4-2 Bears represent one of the league’s biggest surprises after remaking their franchise overnight with the selection of Caleb Williams with the first overall pick. Williams withstood some early hiccups to rip off three consecutive wins with 71 combined points in the last two weeks. Chicago also invested in its wide receiver room, extending D.J. Moore, trading for Keenan Allen, and drafting Rome Odunze in the first round to give Williams a strong array of weapons to ease his adjustment to the pros. The Bears also signed D’Andre Swift to lead their backfield after rotating between three running backs last season. The offense has been inefficient with just 4.7 yards per play, the fifth-fewest in the league, but they have been clinical in the red zone with a 70.6% touchdown rate.

Chicago also invested in its secondary over the offseason with a major extension for Jaylon Johnson and the addition of Kevin Byard in free agency. The Bears have reaped the rewards with the fourth-fewest points per game (16.8) and the fifth-fewest yards per play (5.0) and per game (292.0) allowed.

The Bears have benefitted from an easy schedule, beating the struggling quarterbacks of the Titans and the Panthers as well as an injured Rams team and a slumping Jaguars squad in London. The rest of the season will be more difficult, with a league-high .613 strength of schedule remaining that will make the playoffs an uphill climb for Chicago. Still, even finishing above .500 would be a resounding success for the long-suffering franchise and a clear sign that this regime is on the right track.

How will this division’s historically successful start turn out over the next two-plus months? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.

Poll: Which 0-2 Team Has Best Chance To Make Playoffs?

September 18th, 2024 at 10:10pm CST by Nikhil Mehta

Nine NFL teams have started the regular season with an 0-2 record. Some teams (Panthers, Broncos) are experiencing expected struggles, with others (Ravens, Rams) disappointing fans hoping for a playoff run.

Since 2015, 74 teams have opened the year with back-to-back losses, (h/t James Boyd of The Athletic). Just eight qualified for the postseason, a 10.8% rate that suggests only one of this season’s 0-2 starters will make the playoffs.

The Ravens were a toe away from taking the Chiefs into overtime (or attempting a do-or-die two-point try) in Week 1 before blowing yet another double-digit fourth-quarter lead to the Raiders in Week 2. Baltimore gambled on a new-look offensive line after jettisoning three veteran starters during the offseason, and the results thus far have not been encouraging. Lamar Jackson faced heavy pressure at crucial moments across his first two games, with right guard Daniel Faalele struggling in his conversion from tackle. First-year defensive coordinator Zach Orr is dealing with the same early hiccups that his predecessor Mike Macdonald did back in 2022, surrendering a league-high 257 passing yards per game.

Unlike past years, though, Baltimore has started the season healthy, and it is capable of winning almost any game with Jackson under center. Several young Ravens like Odafe Oweh, Travis Jones, Zay Flowers, and Isaiah Likely have begun the year with promising starts, too, so the team has plenty of reason to remain optimistic about its long-term playoff chances. The Ravens will need to win at least two of their next three against the Cowboys, Bills, and Bengals to avoid a near-insurmountable 1-4 hole.

The division-rival Bengals are also 0-2, scoring just 10 points in Week 1 against the Patriots and losing to the Chiefs on a field goal as time expired. Ja’Marr Chase‘s hold-in did not extend into the regular season, but his lack of practice time and Tee Higgins‘ hamstring injury has hindered Cincinnati’s downfield passing game. The running back committee of Zack Moss and Chase Brown is a clear downgrade from Joe Mixon, and Cincinnati’s defense has struggled to apply pressure outside of Trey Hendrickson.

Cincinnati’s minus-7 point differential is the best of any 0-2 team, and the offense will likely improve as Chase gets more reps and Higgins recovers. The Bengals’ secondary has allowed the second-fewest pass yards through two weeks, and that includes a matchup with Patrick Mahomes. Cincinnati’s season will rely on keeping its three offensive stars healthy. A search for a pass rusher at the trade deadline to pair with Hendrickson may also be avenue the team explores.

The Rams hoped Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp returning to full health would pair with last year’s breakthroughs from Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams to create one of the league’s most explosive offenses. Injuries to Kupp and Nacua, plus starting offensive linemen Joe Noteboom, Steve Avila and Jonah Jackson, have decimated the Los Angeles offense — a clear factor in their Week 2 41-10 blowout loss to the Cardinals. The Rams also have three defensive backs on injured reserve, leaving their secondary shorthanded and placing a burden on a young front seven that lost Aaron Donald to retirement in the offseason.

That young defensive front has plenty of talent in second-year players Kobie Turner and Byron Young and rookies Jared Verse and Braden Fiske. They will need to step up their play over the next several weeks to keep the Rams afloat as the offense desperately tries to get healthy in time for a late-season playoff push.

The Jaguars‘ anemic offense has emerged as the team’s biggest issue to start the season, as Trevor Lawrence‘s 51.0% completion rate is the second-lowest in the league. The fourth-year QB needs more consistency from his pass-catching group, with none of Lawrence’s targets having more than six receptions yet. The defense has allowed just 38 points, a top-10 mark, but has not forced any turnovers that could have impacted in the team’s one-score losses.

The Colts are dealing with the highs and lows of quarterback Anthony Richardson, as the second-year QB has produced some of the best throws of the young season while also owning the league’s lowest completion percentage (49.1%) and most interceptions (four). Veteran Michael Pittman Jr. and rookie Adonai Mitchell have both struggled to find a rhythm on offense, and the defense has been gashed on the ground in both games.

Richardson’s continued development will advance the offense, which has plenty of potential with a strong offensive line and a fully healthy Jonathan Taylor. Indianapolis’ defense remains its biggest impediment to the postseason. Outside of the interior defensive duo of DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart, the Colts lack both consistent contributors and impact playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. And Buckner is now on IR.

The Titans have lost each of their first two games by a touchdown and have yet to score a point in the fourth quarter. Two of Will Levis‘ three primary receivers are new additions, as is running back Tony Pollard. As a result, Tennessee’s offense is a work in progress as the franchise’s decision-makers evaluate if Levis is the QB of the future. Defensively, the Titans have stars at all three levels: defensive tackle Jeffrey Simmons, linebacker Harold Landry and cornerback L’Jarius Sneed. The addition of Ernest Jones via preseason trade with the Rams may well be a shrewd move to shore up the middle, giving Tennessee the framework of a high-upside defense.

First-round pick Malik Nabers has been among the few bright spots during the Giants‘ 0-2 start, recording 15 catches for 193 yards to open the year. Daniel Jones has largely struggled when not targeting Nabers behind an offensive line with multiple new pieces. New York’s defense allowed efficient passing performances from Sam Darnold and Jayden Daniels while surrendering 5.3 yards per rushing attempt in Weeks 1 and 2. Offseason addition Brian Burns and 2022 first-rounder Kayvon Thibodeaux have yet to record sacks this season, making life harder for a young Giants secondary.

The Giants considered trading up for a rookie QB during this past draft, indicating that Jones’ future in New York depends on his performance this season. Either he succeeds, and the Giants stick with him and his contract, or he struggles and is replaced before next season, giving general manager Joe Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll the chance to save their tenure. This duo may not be on the hot seat presently, but this trajectory would point to temperatures rising before season’s end.

Sean Payton landed on first-rounder Bo Nix as his starting quarterback in Denver, and the rookie’s early struggles have only amplified the overall talent deficiency on the roster. Nix’s four interceptions and a virtually nonexistent running game have hindered the offense thus far, putting the defense in disadvantageous positions in both games. The Broncos’ underrated defensive line has gotten pressure on opposing QBs, but the team will need more than just Patrick Surtain in the secondary to stay in games with such a limited offense.

The Panthers benched Bryce Young after their 0-2 start, which included three interceptions and league-lows in points (13) and passing yards (245). A season-ending meniscus tear for Derrick Brown has added injury to insult to a Carolina franchise with little talent or direction at the moment. Switching to Andy Dalton at quarterback may stabilize the offense and aid the development of its young playmakers, but that still provides no long-term solution under center.

Which of these teams has the best chance to beat the above-referenced odds and rebound en route to the playoffs? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.

Poll: Which First-Time Head Coach Will Fare Best In 2024?

September 8th, 2024 at 10:09pm CST by Adam La Rose

The 2024 coaching cycle produced eight hires around the NFL. Raheem Morris (Falcons), Jim Harbaugh (Chargers) and Dan Quinn (Commanders) are each in place as head coaches after previously serving in that role with past teams. The other five are making their coaching debuts this weekend.

Dave Canales ended a lengthy tenure with the Seahawks in 2023 when took over as the Buccaneers’ offensive coordinator. That was his first opportunity as a play-caller at the college or NFL levels, and Tampa Bay did not rank among the league’s elite in terms of passing production. The team was also last in rushing yardage, but overall the Buccaneers outperformed expectations in 2023. Quarterback Baker Mayfield was among the many in-house players who landed a contract keeping him in Tamp Bay this offseason.

That came in no small part from the former No. 1 pick’s career highs in yards (4,044) and touchdown passes (28) under Canales. Expectations will be high for another NFC South title in 2024 for the Bucs, but the opposite will be the case in Carolina as Canales begins his first head coaching gig. The 43-year-old helped stabilize Mayfield’s career in Tampa Bay after doing the same with Geno Smith in Seattle. Canales will now be tasked with overseeing Bryce Young’s development.

Selected first overall last April after the Panthers’ blockbuster trade to acquire the top pick, Young struggled mightily in 2023. The same was true of many other aspects of the organization, of course, and head coach Frank Reich was fired midway through his first season as head coach. General manager Scott Fitterer was dismissed this offseason, with Dan Morgan being promoted as his replacement. He and Canales are at the helm of a long-term rebuild, but at least slight improvement from last year’s 2-15 campaign will be expected in 2024.

Antonio Pierce has slightly more experience than his fellow first-year coaches. The Raiders gave him the interim HC title after Josh McDaniels was fired midway through his second season in Vegas. Owner Mark Davis was in a similar situation when Rich Bisaccia took on interim duties in 2021. Davis allowed Bisaccia to depart, a move he has since expressed regret over.

Instead of repeating that move this year, Davis tapped Pierce for the full-time gig. Many players publicly endorsed the former Pro Bowl linebacker after he guided the team to a 5-4 record down the stretch. Efforts to land a quarterback in the first round of the draft were unsuccessful, so training camp saw incumbent Aidan O’Connell and free agent pickup Gardner Minshew compete for the starting gig. Neither passer impressed, and the veteran will begin the year atop the depth chart based largely on his experience.

The Raiders added Christian Wilkins to a defensive front already featuring Maxx Crosby, and the team’s defense will be leaned on heavily amidst questions in the passing game. Vegas’ rushing output without Josh Jacobs in the backfield will also be worth watching as Pierce looks to lead the Raiders to a postseason return or at least offer a reason for long-term stability on the sidelines.

Jerod Mayo was known to be the Patriots’ heir apparent to Bill Belichick well before the six-time Super Bowl winner parted ways with the organization. Belichick’s departure came about after the third year with Mac Jones in place at quarterback wound up as a disaster. Sweeping changes on offense were made in the offseason, although a number of players brought in during Belichick’s tenure were retained.

That will leave Mayo – who spent his entire eight-year playing career in New England – with several familiar faces on defense in particular (except, notably, Matt Judon). The 38-year-old spent much of his first training camp overseeing a quarterback competition between veteran Jacoby Brissett and rookie Drake Maye. The latter will begin his career on the bench, but as the No. 3 pick in April’s draft and the more productive passer during the preseason he is expected see the field in relatively short order.

The 2024 campaign will be measured in large part by Maye’s development, but the degree to which the Patriots’ offensive line and receiving corps progress will be worth watching as well. Mayo and first-year de facto GM Eliot Wolf‘s roster is not expected to compete in the AFC East, but a step forward from the end of the Belichick era would provide optimism moving forward.

Pete Carroll attempted to remain in place at the helm of the Seahawks in 2024, but the team moved forward with finding his replacement. Mike Macdonald, 36, is the only head coach younger than Mayo and he represents a candidate to enjoy a lengthy tenure in the Emerald City just as Carroll did. Macdonald spent the 2022 and ’23 seasons serving as the Ravens’ defensive coordinator, boosting his stock considerably during that time.

Baltimore led the NFL in points allowed, sacks and takeaways last year. That unprecedented feat put him on the head coaching radar despite his age and the fact many younger head coaches tend to have a background on the offensive side of the ball. New OC Ryan Grubb will take charge of Seattle’s offense while Macdonald focuses on orchestrating a defensive rebound. The Seahawks have ranked no better than 22nd in total defense over the past five years.

Seattle finished 9-8 last season, and quarterback Geno Smith is among the core players still in place from Carroll’s final campaign. If Macdonald can guide the team to a better finish on defense, a postseason berth could very well be within reach. The NFC West figures to remain highly competitive, though, so his first year at the helm will feature several challenges if a return to the playoffs is to take place.  

Brian Callahan joined Zac Taylor’s original Bengals staff in 2019 and he worked as offensive coordinator for five years. That gig did not include play-calling responsibilities, but Callahan drew head coaching interest before landing the Titans’ position. Tennessee moved on from Mike Vrabel after a second straight losing season, and Callahan will be tasked with developing quarterback Will Levis in his place.

The 2023 second-rounder made nine starts during his rookie campaign after taking over from Ryan Tannehill. Levis’ ability to progress will be Tennessee’s top storyline as he takes charge of a unit which now features Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, Tony Pollard and multiple new starters along the offensive line. Callahan’s ability to fit those new elements into the offense and maximize Levis’ potential will determine much of the team’s short- and long-term outlook.

The Titans went 6-11 last year and the AFC South includes three other teams which have young passers; all of them posted better records than Tennessee in 2023. Ran Carthon enters his second season as general manager, and the team’s new regime will be tasked with moving forward with a new core compared to the Vrabel era. Callahan is a central figure in that effort, and Levis’ first full campaign atop the depth chart will be worth watching closely as Callahan handles play-calling duties.

Which staffer do you think will have the best campaign in 2024? Cast your vote in PFR’s latest poll and have your say in the comments section.

Poll: Who Will Win Raiders’ QB Competition?

July 9th, 2024 at 9:41pm CST by Adam La Rose

Training camp and the preseason in 2024 will decide plenty of position battles around the NFL. With respect to quarterbacks, though, few starting gigs are truly unaccounted for this offseason. The Raiders represent an exception.

Vegas’ 2023 Jimmy Garoppolo investment did not pay off as hoped, and he was released after one injury-shortened campaign with the team. Garoppolo’s injury opened the door for Aidan O’Connell to see game action over the second half of the campaign, one in which Josh McDaniels was replaced by Antonio Pierce. The latter was given the full-time gig this spring, and that decision left a fan of O’Connell’s in the building.

Pierce said in March the 2023 fourth-rounder would open any QB competition in pole position. The Raiders were subsequently linked to adding a passer in the first round of the draft, with Pierce appearing to be more on board with a move up the order than new general manager Tom Telesco. In the end, Vegas remained in place on Day 1 and as a result did not add further competition to O’Connell and free agent signing Gardner Minshew.

The latter inked a two-year, $25MM deal in March to join the Raiders. That agreement – a rather lucrative one for a backup – put to rest consideration of a potential Justin Fields acquisition but did not ensure Minshew a first-team role. The 28-year-old was instead viewed as an insurance policy for any rookie the team added as an eventual starter. With such a move not coming to fruition, O’Connell and Minshew will compete for the Week 1 nod this summer.

O’Connell, 25, struggled with turnovers early in his time at the helm before settling down in that regard. Over the course of his final six games, he posted a 9:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Vegas relied on a ground-heavy attack during that time, but the Purdue alum offered enough to suggest he could develop into a starting-caliber option. Increasing his 202 passing yards per game average to an extent would be necessary to achieve that, of course.

Minshew, by contrast, is much more of a known commodity. The former Jaguar and Eagle joined the Colts last offseason to reunite with Shane Steichen. That move proved to be an important one for team and player with much of Anthony Richardson‘s rookie campaign spent on the sidelines due to injury. Minshew logged 13 starts and threw for a career-high 3,305 yards last season, nearly leading Indianapolis to a postseason berth and earning a Pro Bowl invite.

The most recent update on the competition noted that O’Connell may have a slight edge on Minshew entering training camp as the team’s familiar QB option. The Raiders have a different offensive coordinator (Luke Getsy) in place for 2024, though, something which should level the playing field in that respect from Minshew’s perspective. The depth chart will be finalized based on each passer’s performances in the summer, which will consist of split training camp reps and could involve both getting significant preseason playing time.

In the end, who do you feel will win out and earn the starting gig? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and give your thoughts in the comments section below:

Poll: Which Team Is Chiefs’ Top AFC Threat?

May 23rd, 2024 at 9:59pm CST by Sam Robinson

Representation in Super Bowls has not stretched wide in the AFC over the past decade. Since 2013, all of four franchises — the Broncos, Patriots, Chiefs and Bengals — have represented the conference in Super Bowls. The NFC in that span has produced seven Super Bowl entrants.

Since 2001, QB-driven graphics regarding Super Bowl participation primarily feature four faces — those of Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and Patrick Mahomes. An AFC team employing a QB outside that quartet has only reached the Super Bowl three times (2002 Raiders, 2012 Ravens, 2021 Bengals) in 24 seasons. As the NFC has rolled out 21 Super Bowl QB starters since Brady’s first appearance, it has been quite difficult for outsiders to forge a path in the AFC.

This space used to ask which team was best positioned to KO the Patriots in the AFC. The Chiefs ended up getting there, first loading up around Mahomes’ rookie contract before assembling a low-cost (but highly effective) defense to help a team suddenly limited — beyond the Mahomes-Travis Kelce connection’s enduring brilliance — following the Tyreek Hill trade. As the Chiefs aim to become the first team since the mid-1960s Packers to threepeat (part one of Green Bay’s offering occurred before the Super Bowl era), which conference challenger is best built to disrupt their path back?

The AFC North appears a good place to start. The Ravens open the season with an Arrowhead Stadium trek and held the AFC’s No. 1 seed last season. Lamar Jackson skated to MVP honors, and Mike Macdonald‘s defense led the league in scoring. But familiar issues resurfaced for the team in the AFC championship game. An oddly pass-focused Baltimore effort ground to a halt, as Jackson committed two turnovers. Macdonald has since departed — the first Ravens coordinator to leave for a head coaching job since Gary Kubiak in 2015 — and ex-Baltimore linebacker Zach Orr moved into the DC post. The team also lost three starters up front. Although quiet in free agency (in terms of outside hires) beyond the splashy Derrick Henry addition, the Ravens added likely cornerback starter Nate Wiggins in Round 1 and kept Justin Madubuike off the market via the franchise tag and a quick extension.

Cincinnati has shown superior mettle against Kansas City since Joe Burrow‘s arrival, beating the Chiefs thrice in 2022 before falling as both teams battled key injuries in the January 2023 AFC title game. The Bengals losing Burrow in November removed a key obstacle in the Chiefs’ path, but the NFL’s highest-paid player is back. The team also retained Tee Higgins, being the only team left to have a player on the tag, and added new tackles in Trent Brown and Amarius Mims to join Orlando Brown Jr. The team revamped its safety corps by bringing back Vonn Bell and adding ex-Raven Geno Stone. Not many glaring issues are present in Cincinnati’s lineup, with longer-term matters — the receiver situation chief among them — the top roster storylines here.

Creeping into the playoffs despite a host of high-profile injuries on offense, the Browns showed their roster strength by shrugging off the injuries to Deshaun Watson, Nick Chubb and their tackles. Cleveland acquired Jerry Jeudy via trade and then extended him, and other than adding some Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah supporting pieces at linebacker, returns the starters from a No. 1-ranked pass defense. Watson’s struggles, for the most part, since arriving via trade will continue to define where the Browns can venture.

Although the Bills parted with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, looking past Buffalo — a four-time reigning AFC East champion that defeated the Chiefs in three straight seasons in Kansas City — would probably be a mistake. The Bills made some cost-cutting moves, most notably disbanding its seven-year safety duo of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer (though Hyde remains in play to return), and saw concerning form from Von Miller following his second ACL tear. The Bills also lost Leonard Floyd in free agency. Focus will understandably be aimed at Buffalo’s WR crew, which now houses Curtis Samuel, second-rounder Keon Coleman and ex-Chief Marquez Valdes-Scantling (who certainly places a premium on QB talent). The Chiefs’ issues staffing their wideout spots last year provided a lingering problem; will the Bills make a higher-profile addition down the line?

With their backs to the wall, the Joe Douglas–Robert Saleh regime will count on Aaron Rodgers belatedly delivering. The duo may or may not have attempted to strip power from OC Nathaniel Hackett, who is coming off a brutal two-year stretch. The Jets effectively replaced Bryce Huff with a more proven rusher in Haason Reddick and added Mike Williams as a supporting-caster on offense. The team will hope its pair of 33-year-old tackles — Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses — holds up, while Olu Fashanu looms as a long term tackle piece and potential short-term guard. Can the Jets do enough offensively to capitalize on their defensive nucleus of the past two seasons?

The Texans sit as a fascinating piece of this puzzle, given their outlook going into the first three seasons of Nick Caserio‘s GM tenure. After low-key offseasons from 2021-23, Houston added Diggs and a few notable defenders to the DeMeco Ryans-led roster. Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry join ex-Ryans 49ers pupil Azeez Al-Shaair as key defensive additions. Although Diggs struggled down the stretch in his final Bills season, he certainly played a lead role in elevating Josh Allen‘s stature. The Texans, who have C.J. Stroud on a rookie deal through at least 2025, will hope the Pro Bowler pairs well with Nico Collins and the returning Tank Dell.

Miami and Jacksonville’s roster equations figure to change soon, as respective extension talks with Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence are ongoing. The Dolphins have faded badly under Mike McDaniel and did not seriously threaten the Chiefs in a frigid wild-card game, though they have obviously shown elite offensive capabilities in the right environment. Handing the play-calling reins to OC Press Taylor in 2023, the Jaguars did not build on a strong 2022 finish. The Steelers also present one of the highest floors in NFL history, and they have upgraded at quarterback by adding two options — in Justin Fields and likely starter Russell Wilson. But they also have not won a playoff game since the six-field goal offering against the Chiefs — a game that represented the final shove for Kansas City to trade up for Mahoemes — seven years ago.

The Texans emerged from the NFL’s basement last season. Is there a stealth contender lurking? The Chiefs’ division does not look particularly imposing, once again, though Jim Harbaugh now overseeing Justin Herbert is certainly an interesting development. The national championship-winning HC has authored turnarounds everywhere he has gone.

No team has qualified for five Super Bowls in a six-year period, and none of the Super Bowl era’s threepeat efforts have reached the final stage; the 1990 49ers came closest, losing on a last-second field goal in the NFC title game. Who is poised to be the best Chiefs deterrent on their path to a threepeat? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your AFC thoughts in the comments section.

Poll: Who Will Lead Steelers In QB Starts?

May 15th, 2024 at 10:15pm CST by Sam Robinson

Bailing on their handpicked Ben Roethlisberger successor two years in, the Steelers put together one of the more interesting quarterback offseasons in recent NFL history. Two starters on other teams last season are now in the mix, with neither tied to a pricey deal nor a commitment beyond 2024.

The dominoes that led Kenny Pickett out of Pittsburgh began to fall before the team’s Russell Wilson signing, but that contract — a veteran-minimum deal agreed to before the Broncos officially designated Wilson a post-June 1 cut — led the way in driving Pickett to Philadelphia. After it looked like Wilson had a firm grip on the Steelers’ starting job, the team reached an agreement on a low-cost trade for Justin Fields. The final year of the ex-Bears first-rounder’s rookie contract is on the Steelers’ payroll — at the cost of merely a conditional sixth-round pick.

Mike Tomlin has said plenty to suggest Wilson will be his starter in 2024, but given the age gap between the two high-profile acquisitions and how the potential Hall of Famer’s Denver chapter unfolded, it would be a bit unusual if Fields was not mentioned as a candidate to step in at some point. The team has already been linked to pursuing potential deals with both QBs beyond 2024, though the club’s longstanding policy not to negotiate contracts in-season will put these efforts on hold. That seems unrealistic, given each’s starter background. For this year, however, the Steelers have assembled a unique depth chart — one that also includes UFA addition Kyle Allen.

An eight-asset package — headlined by two first-round picks — brought Wilson to Denver. The Broncos cut the cord on the Wilson contract before the extension years (on a five-year, $245MM deal) began. This will bring record-smashing dead money to Denver’s payroll, as the Steelers’ Wilson contract (one year, $1.2MM) barely ate into the $85MM dead cap coming the Broncos’ way through 2025. Wilson bounced back in 2023, but Sean Payton deeming him a bad fit represented another setback in a career that has veered off course.

After a shockingly poor 2022 season when paired with overmatched HC Nathaniel Hackett, Wilson rebounded — to a degree — under Payton by throwing 26 touchdown passes compared to eight interceptions. Slotting him 12 points higher than 2022, QBR ranked Wilson 21st last season. That settled in six spots behind Fields. It is arguable Wilson (six original-ballot Pro Bowl nods) disrupted his Hall of Fame path with the Broncos stay and needs a strong Steelers season to firmly reestablish himself as a Canton-bound player. Fields stands in the way of this reality, and Tomlin kept the door open — while still affirming Wilson will go into training camp as the starter — for the younger player to challenge for the job at some point.

While Wilson trails only Michael Vick and Cam Newton in career QB rushing yards and is the league’s only 40,000-5,000 player, Fields is certainly a better runner from the position. Joining Wilson with a propensity to take sacks, Fields both led the NFL in sacks taken and QB rushing yards in 2022. The Bears saw some improvement through the air last season, and QBR interestingly viewed the Ohio State product’s 2022 showing as superior to his 2023 slate. Fields also posted a worse yards-per-attempt number (6.9) compared to 2022 (7.1) and upped his passer rating by barely a point from the ’22 campaign.

Mentioned as a player expected to command at least a Day 2 pick in a trade, Fields bringing the trade value he did reflects a dim outlook around the league regarding his potential to improve significantly as a passer. The Steelers quickly declined Fields’ fifth-year option, joining the Broncos (Zach Wilson), Cowboys (Trey Lance) and Jaguars (Mac Jones) in passing on an extra year for a recently acquired QB. Pittsburgh will still attempt to finetune the former No. 11 overall pick, and it will be interesting to see how long they do so while keeping him in a backup role. If Fields plays at least 51% of Pittsburgh’s offensive snaps this season, the 2025 pick owed to the Bears vaults to a fourth-rounder.

The post-Killer B’s Steelers have been among the NFL’s most dependable teams, but the ceiling from the Roethlisberger-Antonio Brown–Le’Veon Bell period dropped as Big Ben aged and then Pickett, Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph stepped in. Improved Pittsburgh defenses have been unable to make the past three Steelers squads, even as two of them advanced to the postseason, Super Bowl-caliber operations. This season will be key to isolate some variables within the organization, as Pickett and since-booted OC Matt Canada are gone. After seeing QB play sink his Falcons tenure, OC Arthur Smith will be tasked with coaching two middling — at this point, at least — signal-callers.

The Steelers are banking that Smith and the Wilson-Fields duo will provide sufficient upgrades from their previous play-calling setup and what the QB group of the past two seasons offered. Who will be the quarterback that ends up as the team’s preferred option by the season’s stretch run? Who gives the Steelers the best chance to succeed? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on this revamped setup in the comments section.

Poll: What Will Commanders Do At No. 2 Overall?

April 9th, 2024 at 10:17pm CST by Sam Robinson

When Washington last held the No. 2 overall pick, players like Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert were not realistic targets. Although both have become successful in the pros, Washington had chosen Dwayne Haskins 15th overall in 2019. That tied Ron Rivera and Co. to the best non-QB available, which led to a Chase Young investment.

As another new regime takes over in Washington, the decks are clear for a quarterback. Dan Quinn effectively confirmed the team would leave this draft with one, and while the new HC did not guarantee that player would be chosen at No. 2, the Commanders have a clear opportunity — in what is believed to be a strong QB draft — to select their next starter without giving up assets to do so. The question that will form this draft’s path comes next.

Which signal-caller should the Commanders choose? Washington has been connected to three arms with the No. 2 choice. With a Caleb Williams–Kliff Kingsbury reunion obviously appealing to the NFC East team, that is almost definitely not an option. With the Bears all but set to start the draft with the USC standout, the Commanders have other options worthy of the No. 2 slot. Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and the fast-rising J.J. McCarthy have been tied to Washington. Barring something unexpected, one of them will be the team’s long-term QB hopeful.

Maye came into last season near Williams’ level, but after a statistical step backward in 2023, the North Carolina-developed talent has generated questions. Suddenly, Maye appears a high-variance prospect. Still, Sam Howell‘s Tar Heels QB1 successor dazzled as a redshirt freshman, throwing 38 touchdown passes to seven interceptions. Maye accounted for 5,019 yards (698 rushing) in 14 games in 2022. While less prolific last year (24 TDs, nine INTs, 4,057 total yards — in 12 games), the 6-foot-4, 223-pound prospect still brings plus arm strength and upside. At 21, he is also more than two years younger than the other QB most frequently mocked to the Commanders.

Daniels, who will turn 24 before year’s end, dominated as a senior to rise up prospect rankings lists. The Arizona State transfer accounted for 4,946 yards (1,134 rushing) and finished with a 40-4 TD-INT ratio in his second and final LSU season. Daniels’ frame is a slight concern, as he weighed 210 pounds at the Combine. His playing weight may well check in south of that number. Daniels played five college seasons, capitalizing on his COVID year. Mel Kiper Jr.’s ESPN.com big board places Daniels second, while Daniel Jeremiah’s latest NFL.com rankings tab him sixth. Maye checks in sixth and fifth on those lists, respectively, adding intrigue to this Commanders call.

Prior to his Heisman offering, Daniels was not expected to be an early-first-round pick. But McCarthy made a more surprising rise. Even in the days following Michigan’s national championship win, McCarthy was viewed as maybe a mid-first-round choice. That no longer looks possible. Despite not posting numbers that rivaled Maye’s or Daniels’ offerings, the national championship-winning QB wowed evaluators at his pro day. To go along with his accuracy in a pro-like system under Jim Harbaugh, McCarthy now seems likely to be a top-six pick.

Many mocks have the 21-year-old prospect rising to the No. 4 spot via trade. A player without a 3,000-yard passing season going that high would be quite rare, though McCarthy exited several games early last year due to Wolverines dominance. He also finished his two-year starter run with a 44-9 TD-INT ratio.

McCarthy surfaced as a candidate to go No. 2 overall last month, and a recent report lent support to the Michigan product’s rise reaching this point. Neither Kiper nor Jeremiah have placed that as likely yet, though their mocks disagree on the Maye-Daniels debate. The Commanders joined the Patriots in having the largest contingent at Maye’s pro day, while Daniels is coming to Washington for a “30” visit. As of late March, Daniels was believed to be in pole position to go second to Washington, and a recent poll of NFL executives revealed a 3-2 edge to the LSU alum in the Daniels-or-May debate. Several teams will obviously have vested interests in how the Commanders proceed, with the draft taking shape based on which direction the NFC East team goes.

Washington is rebuilding. They could stockpile considerable draft capital — likely two future first-round picks — by trading down. This would likely not apply to the Giants, as they would almost definitely need to find a different gateway into the top four, but a big offer could prompt a meeting. But the Commanders have a clear path to a top QB prospect now. Waiting could introduce future hurdles into their QB equation, one that has not been stable since Kirk Cousins‘ two-franchise tag exit. And even that brought numerous headlines due to the contractual breakdown.

How will Washington proceed at 2? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on this pivotal decision in the comments section.

Poll: Which Team Made Best HC Hire?

February 8th, 2024 at 7:40pm CST by Sam Robinson

This year’s HC cycle became the rare carousel to generate more attention around the coaches who did not land jobs than the ones hired. Bill Belichick and Mike Vrabel being left out will assuredly generate stories ahead of the 2025 hiring period, and it will be worth monitoring if Pete Carroll is connected to another coaching job.

But eight teams — up from five in 2023 — made the decision to change coaches. Dan Quinn‘s hire filled the final vacancy. While the Commanders’ process generated extensive fallout, teams are now moving forward with staff assembly following their HC hires.

The Commanders look to have gone through a bit of back-and-forth about their interest in Lions OC Ben Johnson. Pushing back on the notion the two-year Detroit play-caller was their top choice all along, Washington will give Quinn a second chance. But the former Dallas DC may well have been Washington’s third choice; the team made an aggressive push to land Mike Macdonald as well. The Seahawks finished that 11th-hour competition by giving the young Ravens DC a six-year deal.

Only Seattle and Washington waited until after the conference championship games to hire their coaches. Macdonald, who is half Carroll’s age, becomes the NFL’s youngest HC (36). (New Patriots leader Jerod Mayo, 37, held that title for several days.) A Ravens defense that carried major questions in the pass-rushing department led the NFL in sacks while leading the league in scoring defense as well. Quinn re-established his value over three years in Dallas, restoring that unit as one of the game’s best. While Quinn has the Super Bowl LI collapse on his resume and went 0-for-3 in playoff berths over his final three seasons in Atlanta, Washington’s new ownership group will bet on the experienced staffer.

Although the Commanders’ search produced a number of headlines, the Falcons introduced this year’s top “what if?” storyline. The only team serious about hiring Belichick, interviewing him twice, the Falcons steered clear of the six-time Super Bowl-winning HC. While Arthur Blank went into the hiring period prepared to hire the 24-year Patriots leader, it appears other Falcons higher-ups — in an effort potentially connected to their own statuses — helped sway the owner toward the Raheem Morris hire.

Morris, whom Falcons CEO Rich McKay hired during his time as Bucs GM in the early 2000s, will make the historically rare move of returning to coach a team years after operating as its interim HC. Morris left Atlanta on good terms in 2021 and comes back after a successful run as the Rams’ DC. Though, Belichick will undoubtedly be tied to Morris during the latter’s second Atlanta stay.

It took a six-year contract for the Panthers to bring in Bucs OC Dave Canales, who parlayed his first coordinator season into a head coaching gig. The Panthers trading the No. 1 overall pick and David Tepper‘s reputation as an impulsive meddler played into Carolina’s search, but the team had long been connected — despite Frank Reich‘s struggles — to pursuing an offense-oriented leader. Carolina also pursued Johnson for a second year but did not wait to make an attempt to interview him in-person. Following his work with Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield, Canales will be charged with developing Bryce Young.

The Titans also went offense with their hire, adding five-year Bengals non-play-calling OC Brian Callahan to succeed Vrabel. Zac Taylor‘s longtime lieutenant probably would have landed a job earlier had he called plays in a Joe Burrow-piloted offense, but the Titans will turn to the 39-year-old candidate to develop Will Levis. Brian Callahan will also technically oversee his father this coming season, hiring well-regarded Browns O-line coach Bill Callahan to the same position. This will be the Callahans’ first time on the same staff.

Las Vegas and New England each went with in-house solutions. The Raiders became the first team in seven years to elevate an interim HC to the full-time position. Mark Davis listened to his players, after expressing regret about not removing Rich Bisaccia‘s interim tag in 2022. But the second-generation owner also passed on interviewing other viable candidates for the job, only going through with required interviews to comply with the Rooney Rule. While Pierce accounted himself well as a leader during the season’s second half, his experience level is quite thin compared to just about every other HC hire in modern NFL history.

Using a Rooney Rule workaround by including language in Mayo’s contract about succeeding Belichick, the Patriots also passed on a true search. Robert Kraft intervened last year, extending Mayo after the Panthers had sought a meeting, and will give the keys to the recent Patriots linebacker. Mayo’s time in coaching does not match Pierce’s, though the former has spent more time as an NFL assistant. The franchise is largely keeping the Patriot Way going, promoting from within to fill the HC position and elevating an in-house staffer (Eliot Wolf) to fill the de facto GM post, only with Belichick no longer involved.

The highest-profile hire came out of Los Angeles. The Chargers became the team to lure Jim Harbaugh back to the pros. The Bolts gave the accomplished HC a $16MM salary — over five years — and signed off on allowing final say. Harbaugh has won everywhere he has been and held leverage in the form of another Michigan extension offer and a second Falcons interview being scheduled. The Bolts did not let him leave for that meeting and gave Harbaugh significant input into Tom Telesco‘s GM replacement (Joe Hortiz). Harbaugh’s final NFL snaps came with the Chargers, and after hiring three first-time HCs under Telesco, the team will make a bigger bet to turn things around.

Which team ended up doing the best with its 2024 hire? Why did Belichick fail to land a job? Will he and Vrabel be back in 2025? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on this year’s HC market in the comments.

Poll: Who Will Win Super Bowl LVIII?

February 4th, 2024 at 7:20pm CST by Adam La Rose

One week remains until Super Bowl LVIII, which represents a rematch of the title contest from four years ago. Kansas City earned a come-from-behind victory in that instance, but the team enters Sunday’s game as slight underdogs.

Encountering offensive consistency issues not seen before during the Patrick Mahomes era, the defending champions still managed to post a strong record while searching for a rhythm in the passing game. Kansas City won the AFC West for the eighth straight season while leaning on one of the league’s best defenses. That resulted in a home postseason game in the wild-card round (a comfortable win over the Dolphins in frigid conditions), but it required road trips for the first time in Mahomes’ postseason career.

One-score victories in Buffalo and Baltimore saw the Chiefs continue to display a strong pass defense in particular coupled with a more balanced attack than earlier in the campaign. Having cleared a slightly new challenge in terms of winning on the road in January, Kansas City has arrived at a fourth Super Bowl in the past five years. A third win in that span would further cement the legacies of Mahomes, head coach Andy Reid and others.

By contrast, many members of the 49ers’ roster and coaching/front office staff are seeking their first title. Having come up short – due in large part to a late collapse – in the first Chiefs matchup, redemption will be a goal for San Francisco’s veterans. Of course, quarterback Brock Purdy headlines the list of players who did not take part in the loss four years ago. The former Mr. Irrelevant was firmly in the MVP conversation throughout much of the 2023 season, his first as a full-time starter. Fellow finalist Christian McCaffrey has proven to be the two-way offensive focal point San Francisco envisioned he would be when trading for him.

After securing the NFC’s No. 1 seed, the 49ers appeared poised for a relatively smooth journey back to the Super Bowl. The team’s two home wins (against the Packers and Lions) did not go according to plan especially in the early going, however. San Francisco trailed in the fourth quarter of both games, and a run of 27 consecutive second half points was needed against Detroit to ensure the victory. Having allowed 772 combined yards in two postseason contests, the 49ers’ defense will be a unit worth watching closely next week.

Purdy’s injury in last year’s NFC title game played a large role in San Francisco falling short of the Super Bowl, which delayed the upcoming contest by one season. Now that it has arrived, he – like much of the team’s nucleus along with head coach Kyle Shanahan – will aim for a first career championship. Mahomes, meanwhile, can become the fifth starting quarterback in history to win three Super Bowls and Reid the fourth coach to do so.

Who will win it all this year? Vote in the poll below and have your say in the comments section:

Poll: Which Team Will Claim NFC’s No. 1 Seed?

December 17th, 2023 at 10:20pm CST by Adam La Rose

Given the NFL’s recent switch to a seven-team playoff format, claiming the No. 1 seed in each conference (and with it the lone bye in the wild-card round) carries particular significance. In the case of the NFC, a shortlist of teams will compete for the top spot over the final four weeks of the season.

Three of them – the 49ers, Cowboys and Eagles – entered Sunday at 10-3, though one member of the latter pair will be saddled with the No. 5 seed after finishing as the runner-up in the NFC East. The 49ers’ win over the Cardinals and Cowboys’ loss to the Bills separates San Francisco for the time being. The Lions, meanwhile, improved to 10-4 after their impressive showing on Saturday. Detroit will have work to do to overtake the conference’s other three heavyweights, but changes atop the standings could take place over the following month.

San Francisco currently leads the way, and owning the head-to-head tiebreaker against both Philadelphia and Dallas (by virtue of blowout victories) will help down the stretch. The 49ers’ commitment to Brock Purdy under center has proven to be sound, as last year’s Mr. Irrelevant has improved on his rookie output. Purdy leads the NFL not only in completion percentage (70.2%) but also yards per attempt (9.9) and passer rating (116.9) while playing with arguably the league’s top skill-position group.

The 49ers’ offense (led by Purdy and fellow MVP candidate Christian McCaffrey) has shown itself to be an elite unit, as expected, this season. The team’s defense has also recovered from a downturn during their three-game losing streak. The trade deadline acquisition of Chase Young added to San Francisco’s front seven, but injuries in the secondary have left the 49ers in need of other in-season additions. A reunion with Jason Verrett and the signing of Logan Ryan has given San Francisco a pair of veteran defensive backs to at least serve as depth on the backend. Only the 49ers’ Christmas Day game against the Ravens will see them face an opponent currently over .500 the rest of the way.

The Cowboys split the season series with the Eagles, allowing them to own the tiebreaker for the time being. A more daunting path awaits Dallas to close out the campaign, however, with road games against the Bills and Dolphins followed by a crucial matchup against the Lions. The Cowboys’ offense especially has proven to be one of the league’s best units this season, however, led by Dak Prescott. In line for an extension this offseason, the 30-year-old leads the NFL with 28 touchdown passes, and his passer rating sits at a career-high 107.5.

While those figures have Prescott in the MVP conversation and in line for a raise on his next pact, judgement of the Cowboys will of course depend on their postseason showing. The fate of head coach Mike McCarthy has been a talking point for some time now, owing in large part to the team’s inability to break through in the playoffs during his tenure. He could be in store for a new contract, however, especially if 2023 were to produce a deep run toward a Super Bowl. Given Dallas’ impressive home winning streak, securing the top seed could be imperative in that effort.

The Eagles enjoyed a strong start to the campaign, but consecutive losses have led to questions on the defensive side of the ball in particular (and now prompted a signficant change on the sidelines, with Matt Patricia assuming play-calling duties). That unit was affected more than the offense in the offseason exodus of talent following Philadelphia’s run to the Super Bowl, and the inside linebacker spot has drawn attention recently. The Eagles won out the competition to add Shaquille Leonard after his sudden Colts departure, giving them a former All-Pro in the second level.  

Leonard played sparingly in his Philadelphia debut (which fittingly came in Dallas after the Cowboys finished as the runners-up in the pursuit to sign him). Regardless of the role he plays down the stretch, Philadelphia could be in line for a rebound from the team’s recent showing. The Eagles play the Giants twice in the season’s final three weeks, and despite New York’s current winning streak, Philadelphia’s upcoming Monday night game against the 6-7 Seahawks will likely prove to be the strongest remaining challenge.

After a strong late-season run to close out the 2022 campaign, the Lions entered this season with the team’s highest expectations in years. For the most part, Detroit has lived up to the hype so far. Impressive performances from a number of contributors (including rookies Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta) on offense has confirmed OC Ben Johnson’ status as one of the hottest head coach candidates for the upcoming hiring cycle. The 37-year-old drew interest last year before committing to a second campaign in the Motor City, but he has already been linked to multiple current vacancies.

Of course, the Lions’ offensive success has the chance of complicating quarterback Jared Goff’s future with the team. The former No. 1 pick has one year (and no guaranteed salary) remaining on his deal and Detroit drafted a potential successor this April in the form of Hendon Hooker. Goff leads the league in passing yards (3,727) entering Sunday’s action, however, and he could be playing his way into a new contract. The Lions, like the Eagles, will likely need to rely on their offense to overcome defensive shortcomings down the stretch. Games against the division-rival Vikings await the NFC North leaders with the aforementioned Cowboys contest in between.

One notable free agent who could help tip the scales is Zach Ertz. The veteran tight end asked for and was granted his Cardinals release, leaving him free to join a contender. Several teams could stand to add the three-time Pro Bowler, and the 49ers are believed to be interested in making him part of an already deep pass-catching corps. To no surprise, a reunion with the Eagles could also be in store. Both San Francisco and Philadelphia will have competition (from each conference) to land Ertz, however.

With the 49ers, Cowboys and Eagles set to play their respective Week 15 matchups today and tomorrow, how do you see the race to the No. 1 seed playing out? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and leave your thoughts in the comments section below:

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