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Offseason In Review: Detroit Lions

August 25th, 2024 at 11:13pm CST by Sam Robinson

All due respect to the Barry Sanders– and Erik Kramer-driven 1991 season, last year brought the Lions’ most successful slate since their 1957 championship campaign. Narrowly missing their first Super Bowl berth, the Lions still moved their rebuild — one that featured a 3-13-1 team in 2021 — to the NFC championship game. The Brad Holmes–Dan Campbell operation has changed the franchise’s trajectory, making good on the hype the 2023 offseason brought.

As Detroit attempts to kick down the door and book its first Super Bowl berth, its payroll changed significantly. The equation now includes big-ticket contracts for Jared Goff and other cornerstones, but last year’s draft class infused the roster with impact talent that will be tied to rookie deals for a bit. Campbell’s team will try to capitalize on the combination of rookie-contract talent and lower Year 1 cap numbers for its recently extended stars.

Extensions and restructures:

Goff became the first domino to fall this offseason on the quarterback market, and the former No. 1 overall pick is now the oldest member of the $50MM-per-year club. The only $50MM-per-year passer north of 27, Goff (30 in October) has completed a remarkable turnaround. The Lions needed to take on Goff’s 2019 Rams extension to collect the two-first-rounder package from the Rams for Matthew Stafford. Rather than Goff being the bridge QB most assumed, the five-year Los Angeles starter turned his career around in Detroit. The Lions have protected Goff with a top-flight offensive line, and Amon-Ra St. Brown has become a No. 1 target. This has stabilized the career of a passer who did not fare well in his first Lions season.

Holmes continually resisted labeling Goff a stopgap, and the Lions then benefited from what became a team-friendly contract over the past two seasons. Goff played well on his $33.5MM-per-year Rams deal, ranking fifth and 11th in QBR during Ben Johnson‘s play-calling years. The Lions passed on the 2021 first-round QB contingent, instead taking Penei Sewell to protect Goff in Round 1. A maligned 2022 first-round QB crop followed, and the Lions took Aidan Hutchinson and Jameson Williams. After Goff’s promising 2022, Detroit continued to build around him rather than take the traditional route and find a younger arm at a rookie-scale rate.

These decisions meant Goff would need to be extended, with Holmes indicating the quarterback he once helped draft as the Rams’ college scouting director had earned a new deal. The Lions made Goff the NFL’s second-highest-paid player (for a few weeks, at least), striking first to help set the market for Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa and Jordan Love. Of the eight $50MM-AAV clubbers, only Goff is on a third contract. That separates his situation from the pack, but the Lions continue to show belief in a player Sean McVay discarded.

Beating Stafford’s Rams in a wild-card game, edging the Buccaneers and then pushing the 49ers to the brink, Goff secured quality terms on his deal — even if Lawrence and Love passed him in AAV months later. The popular rolling guarantee structure is in place here, with Goff set to see $20MM of his $35MM 2026 base salary guarantee in 2025. More than a third of Goff’s 2027 base salary ($50MM) will lock in a year early as well. The Lions are betting big on a player who arrived as a depressed asset, but they went to work on ensuring their other early-2020s pillars would remain in the fold as well.

Perhaps best known for the five-QB first round that failed to produce franchise options, the 2021 draft nevertheless equipped the Lions with offensive cornerstones. After the Bengals chose Ja’Marr Chase over Sewell, the Lions pounced. Both players have become standouts. While Cincinnati is angling to pay Chase in 2025, Detroit stepped up early on a market-changing deal.

Sewell not only became the NFL’s highest-paid right tackle, he was the league’s top tackle earner at the time of signing. Although his contract changed the LT market — as the Buccaneers have since given Tristan Wirfs the highest tackle AAV — Sewell’s contract still checks in on its own level among RTs. His $28MM per-year number leads the RT pack by $8MM.

The Lions stationed Sewell at left tackle for much of 2021, keeping him at his college position, but that only occurred because of a Taylor Decker injury. Over the past two years, the Oregon product has become a dominant right tackle. Sewell’s RT move coincided with Goff’s late-20s rebound, as the Lions formed an elite O-line. Pro Football Focus ranked Detoit’s O-line eighth in 2022 and second last season. Sewell ranked sixth in pass block win rate last season and has made back-to-back Pro Bowls — not the easiest feat for a right tackle — along with earning a 2023 All-Pro first-team nod.

This should be a sound Lions move, as Sewell will not turn 24 until October. This should ensure his prime occurs in the Motor City. Sewell agreeing to a four-year contract also separates him from recently extended tackles Wirfs, Christian Darrisaw and Andrew Thomas. The Lions RT will likely be able to come back to the table during his late 20s, presenting the opportunity for two monster paydays.

St. Brown will not turn 25 until October. At the rate receivers are being paid, his third contract will probably be north of $40MM per year when the time arrives. The Lions expected to have a franchise tackle when they chose Sewell; St. Brown provided a surprise.

Arriving when the Lions were retooling at the position, the former fourth-round pick showed immediate promise and became entrenched in Detroit’s starting lineup during the team’s 2021 restart. Since his 912-yard rookie year, the tenacious wideout climbed to 1,161 and 1,514. The latter showing made St. Brown the Lions’ first All-Pro wideout since Calvin Johnson in 2013.

Giving midlevel deals to the likes of Golden Tate and Marvin Jones in between Megatron’s extension and the St. Brown deal, the Lions bided their time before reinvesting. They nabbed St. Brown, who has carried a perpetual chip on his shoulder due to being chosen 112th overall, and made him the NFL’s highest-paid receiver — at the time. St. Brown was linked to a $26-$28MM-per-year number during negotiations, but his camp inflated that figure by the time of signing.

St. Brown joined Tyreek Hill as the league’s only $30MM-per-year WRs, driving both A.J. Brown and Justin Jefferson to seek higher-end deals and affecting the markets of CeeDee Lamb, Brandon Aiyuk and Ja’Marr Chase. St. Brown’s deal includes $77MM guaranteed in total, with the USC alum’s $27.5MM 2026 base salary locking in by March 2025. After St. Brown played through a significant oblique injury last season, the Lions will hope he has another gear to hit during the mid-’20s.

Holmes still found room to circle back to Decker, doing so despite the dependable left tackle arriving as a Bob Quinn pick and going into his age-30 season. Decker has started since his 2016 rookie year and turns 30 just this week. This marks the former first-rounder’s third NFL contract. Decker’s $20MM-per-year deal does not have rolling guarantee mechanisms like Goff, Sewell and St. Brown’s do, but he did well to lock in nearly $32MM at signing on a three-year accord.

This season, Decker will move into third — behind only Jeff Backus and Lomas Brown — for starts by a Lions tackle. After toiling for some middling Lions teams late in Jim Caldwell‘s tenure and enduring another rebuild after the Matt Patricia hire bombed, Decker reemerged on a playoff squad. The Ohio State alum has not secured any Pro Bowl nods, but pass block win rate rated him seventh among all tackles in 2023. PFF also assigned Decker a ninth-place finish at the position last season. The Lions have their top-tier tackle pair signed through 2027.

The prices are rising here, but Detroit backloading the extensions keeps costs manageable for 2024. Goff’s cap number is only $27.2MM, St. Brown’s $4.86MM. Sewell and Decker respectively count just $8.2MM and $10.9MM.

Trades:

The Lions’ cornerback situation would soon become more complicated, but they saw it prove unreliable on the field in 2023. (Aaron Glenn‘s pass defense ranked 27th.) This led to Detroit starting the league year by obtaining Davis, whose three-year, $45MM Tampa Bay contract expires after this season. Despite Davis being in a walk year, the Lions gave up a third-rounder in a pick-swap deal. Making corner a priority, the Lions subsequently paired the former Super Bowl starter with a host of new names.

Detroit also looked into L’Jarius Sneed and Marshon Lattimore, but Davis’ top complementary pieces soon came via the draft. A 2018 second-round pick, Davis has 75 starts on his resume and will not turn 28 until New Year’s Eve. He hit free agency as one of the top defenders available in 2022, but the Bucs paid Jamel Dean a year later.

Davis intercepted four passes during Tampa Bay’s Super Bowl-winning season and collectively held QBs to sub-58% completion rates (as the closest defender) in 2021 and ’22. Last season, that number climbed to 61.4%; PFF graded Davis 68th among CBs. The Lions will still bet on the defender excelling in Glenn’s scheme, and they hold exclusive negotiating rights with him until March.

Free agency additions:

Jonah Jackson served as the Lions’ second-longest-tenured O-line starter, holding that role from 2020-23, but proved too expensive — as could be expected, given the guard market and the Lions’ offseason extension plans — to retain. Enter Zeitler, who continues to excel for northern-based teams. The former Bengals first-rounder has remained a reliable piece for the Browns (2017-18), Giants (2019-20) and Ravens (2021-23). Zeitler is going into his age-34 season, but he snared his first Pro Bowl honor in 2023.

This is a temporary solution, but the Lions nabbing one of this era’s most seasoned guards for $6MM probably represents a win — especially given what proven guards cost this offseason. Zeitler discussed terms with the Ravens, who had signed him following a Giants cut in 2021, but Baltimore opted to cut costs up front. PFF graded Zeitler as a top-15 guard in each of his three Ravens seasons, giving the Lions optimism he will be able to hold form into his mid-30s. Zeitler’s 181 career starts are also in the top 20 all time among guards, and the new Detroit RG leads the pack among active guards.

One of the league’s better run stuffers for years, Reader recently recovered from a second quad tear. The former Texans and Bengals nose tackle tore both quads during his Cincinnati tenure. In between, he anchored Cincinnati’s interior during back-to-back AFC championship game seasons. PFF rated Super Bowl LVI starter rated as a top-11 D-tackle in each of the past three seasons, and PFR’s top 50 free agent list placed him 25th.

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5 Key Stories: 8/18/24 – 8/25/24

August 25th, 2024 at 5:14pm CST by Adam La Rose

As the preseason winds down around the NFL, key roster decisions loom. The past seven days have seen several key developments with numerous players landing contracts, extensions or clarity pertaining to where they will start the campaign on their respective teams’ depth chart. In case you missed any of the top stories from this week, here is a quick recap:

  • Humphrey Agrees To Historic Chiefs Extension: Kansas City’s efforts to get extensions done with a few members of the team’s young core resulted in Creed Humphrey agreeing to a long-term deal. His four-year, $72MM pact represents by far the most lucrative commitment for a center in league history. The previous benchmark in terms of AAV was $13.5MM, so Humphrey’s $18MM figure will no doubt move the position’s market upward in the future. The 25-year-old will collect $50MM in guarantees on his new contract, which has him tied to the Chiefs through 2028. A Pro Bowler in each of the past two seasons, Humphrey has lived up to expectations so far and cemented himself as one of the top centers in the league; he will remain an anchor of the Chiefs’ offensive line for the foreseeable future.
  • Falcons Extend Terrell: After making a pair of notable defensive additions last week, the Falcons checked an in-house piece of business off their to-do list. Atlanta inked cornerback A.J. Terrell to a four-year, $81MM extension which took the place of his fifth-year option. The 2021 second-team All-Pro secured $42.34MM fully guaranteed, and he will remain an staple of Atlanta’s secondary through 2028. Terrell, 25, now sits second in the league in terms of annual average compensation for corners ($20.25MM), and his deal is the largest one worked out this offseason at the position. Questions remain regarding the long-term future of the Falcons’ other CB spots, but the top of the depth chart is secure for years to come.
  • Minshew Wins Raiders’ QB Competition: One of 2024’s true quarterback competitions saw Gardner Minshew vying for the Raiders’ starting gig against Aidan O’Connell. After evaluating both in training camp and the preseason, it was the veteran who got the nod for Week 1. Minshew landed $25MM on a two-year deal in free agency, but he had ground to make up on O’Connell upon arrival in Vegas. He has far more experience (37 career starts), though, and superior mobility helped him land atop the depth chart. Minshew mainly handled backup duties following his two seasons with the Jaguars, but in 2023 he took over as the Colts’ starter after Anthony Richardson was injured early in the season. That spell did not include high-end efficiency, but it kept Indianapolis in contention for a playoff spot. A repeat from the 28-year-old could produce similar results for the Raiders.
  • Gilmore Joins Vikings: Another of the league’s top free agents came off the market when Stephon Gilmore took a one-year deal with the Vikings. The former Defensive Player of the Year received $7MM guaranteed, and he has the potential to earn $10MM in Minnesota. Gilmore, 33, received an offer from the Panthers but elected to head to the NFC North on his latest deal. Cornerback has been a position marked with questions for the Vikings stemming in large part from Khyree Jackson’s death and Mekhi Blackmon’s ACL tear. Gilmore will offer plenty of experience in the secondary, and his play with the Cowboys last season demonstrated his ability to remain a full-time starter. Minnesota represents his fifth different team in as many seasons, and Gilmore’s market will again be dictated by his play on a short-term accord.
  • Broncos’ Nix Becomes Latest Rookie Starter: It came as no surprise when Caleb Williams (Bears) and Jayden Daniels (Commanders) were named as their teams’ Week 1 starters under center. Bo Nix faced a different path to the QB1 spot, but strong showings in training camp and the preseason earned him the gig. A veteran of a record-breaking 61 college starts, the Auburn and Oregon product was seen as being more pro-ready than many (if not all) of his draft classmates. Head coach Sean Payton was high on Nix during the pre-draft process, and Denver’s decision to select him at No. 12 confirmed he would take over as starter at some point relatively soon. Attention will now turn to how the Broncos proceed with returnee Jarrett Stidham and spring trade acquisition Zach Wilson at the other quarterback spots.

Offseason In Review: Carolina Panthers

August 23rd, 2024 at 10:30pm CST by Sam Robinson

A year after hiring Frank Reich, the Panthers rebooted once again. David Tepper‘s rocky ownership tenure now includes a third HC hire — after another interim staff closed out a season. Carolina missed a sixth straight playoff bracket, with a 2-15 record — when factoring in what led them there — dropping the franchise to its lowest point. As Tepper continues to receive earned criticism, Dan Morgan and Dave Canales are at work attempting to rebuild this operation.

Coaching/front office:

The Panthers are well behind on the scorecards early in the Bryce Young–C.J. Stroud matchup. After being widely reported to have driven the bus for Young over the eventual Offensive Rookie of the Year, Tepper has hired a coach who played lead roles in elevating two depressed assets. Canales comes to Charlotte after being Geno Smith‘s quarterbacks coach (2022) and Baker Mayfield‘s OC. This represents a quick rise for someone with one year of play-calling experience, but Canales has been an NFL assistant since 2010.

Tied to wanting an offensive coach once again, even after a preference for this coaching background brought an 11-game Reich stint, Tepper was closely linked to Lions OC Ben Johnson for a second offseason. Johnson dropped out of the Panthers’ HC search last year but interviewed with the team once again in January. Carolina sent a request a day after the regular season ended, and a mid-January report listed Johnson as both the Panthers and Commanders’ top choice. The Panthers may well have received word Johnson was not interested, as they hired Canales on Jan. 25. Johnson was still in the mix for the Commanders until Jan. 30.

Tepper’s run of headlines, along with the team’s poor performance and the depleted draft capital the Young trade caused, stood to make Carolina’s job less attractive. Thus, the Panthers offered Canales a six-year contract. This comes four years after Tepper signed off on (and soon regretted) Matt Rhule‘s seven-year, $62MM deal. It is unlikely Canales commanded a Rhule-level salary, but he will benefit from the Panthers’ recent instability via the six guaranteed years. The Panthers got off the Rhule contract thanks to offset language, which came up after Nebraska hired him, but they are on the hook for Reich — who is expected to retire — through 2026.

Given a $3.5MM 2022 contract, Smith went from needing to beat out Drew Lock to be the Seahawks’ Russell Wilson replacement to winning Comeback Player of the Year acclaim and leading the NFL in completion rate. That garnered Canales the Tampa Bay job, and Mayfield just went from $4MM player to a quarterback given a three-year, $100MM deal to remain a Buccaneer. In between, the previously downtrodden passer threw 28 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions, finishing third for Comeback Player of the Year (behind Joe Flacco and Damar Hamlin).

Canales, 43, is one of the fastest-rising assistants in recent memory, not being on the HC radar until 2024. Although the Panthers did not present the top job for aspiring HCs this offseason, they have an intriguing option who will be tasked with rebuilding Young’s stock.

Tepper’s presence also made Carolina’s GM vacancy unattractive by comparison. Despite firing his other two top decision-makers from the early 2020s — Rhule and Fitterer — Tepper promoted Morgan, who was along for the ride since returning to the organization in May 2021. A former Panthers first-round pick as a linebacker, Morgan started 59 games for the team before injury trouble ended the one-time Pro Bowler’s career early. Morgan and Canales worked together — one a rising exec, the other Pete Carroll‘s WRs coach — in Seattle from 2010-17 — before the former followed ex-Panthers staffer Brandon Beane to Buffalo. The Bills have now sent two high-ranking Beane staffers — Morgan and Joe Schoen — into GM chairs.

Morgan received one other GM interview since returning to Charlotte, meeting about the Steelers’ job in 2022. Tepper certainly has familiarity with Morgan, though it is interesting the seventh-year owner promoted from in-house after canning Rhule and Fitterer. The latter held decision-making power — sort of, as Tepper continues to play a major role in football ops — following Rhule’s firing and was in charge for the Christian McCaffrey trade, the Brian Burns non-trade and the Young deal that sent D.J. Moore (and the Caleb Williams draft slot) to the Bears. Morgan, 45, will set out trying to correct some of the missteps his head-honcho predecessors made.

The point man behind the innovative Patrick Mahomes contract, Tilis will work with Morgan in this turnaround effort. The Panthers had interviewed Tilis for the GM post in 2022 and ’24. As Tilis arrives, the Panthers axed Adrian Wilson after one year. The former Cardinals safety-turned-Arizona exec had signed on to be the Panthers’ VP of player personnel in 2023. An arrest on misdemeanor domestic violence charges led Wilson out.

Canales brought Idzik, the Bucs’ wide receivers coach, with him as a non-play-calling OC. The son of ex-Jets GM John Idzik, Brad also worked with Canales in Seattle — as a lower-level assistant. Idzik, at 32, is the NFL’s youngest active OC. No OC interest elsewhere developed for Idzik, but plenty of teams wanted to interview Evero for both HC and DC positions.

For a second straight offseason, Evero drew extensive interest despite being tied to a bad team. He was a popular HC interviewee after the 2022 Broncos fielded a viable defense (amid their offensive mess) and drew interest again after the 2023 Panthers’ defense ranked fourth in yardage allowed (29th in scoring, 25th DVOA).

The Panthers blocked three teams — the Jaguars, Giants and Dolphins — from interviewing Evero, who is now tied to a coach and GM that did not hire him. The Rams, who employed Evero from 2017-21, also loomed as interested. Unlike the Broncos last year, the Panthers would not let Evero out of his contract — an endgame the suddenly popular assistant may well have sought.

Trades:

The Giants talked the Panthers down from a first-round price point for Burns, who famously drew a two-first-rounder (plus a third) offer from the Rams at the 2022 trade deadline. Carolina then kept Burns out of the Young trade. Burns held the Panthers’ 2022 decision against them for the rest of their negotiations and pushed for what seemed like unreasonable terms, based on his history, by seeking a deal in the $30MM-per-year ballpark. That price point emerged before Nick Bosa became the NFL’s first $30MM-AAV edge rusher. Weeks into Morgan’s GM tenure, he cut the cord.

Morgan and Schoen worked together in Buffalo, and this relationship catalyzed this saga’s culmination. Fitterer and Rhule prioritized an extension with Burns, but the former waited until last year to enter serious negotiations. Trade offers that did not rival the Rams’ 2022 presentation emerged at the 2023 deadline, and after franchise-tagging Burns, the Panthers paused extension talks. Hard Knocks revealed this came as trade buzz percolated. This worked out quite well for for the tagged OLB, who signed a $28.2MM-per-year Giants extension that came with $87.5MM guaranteed.

The Giants can be accused of overpayment, but the Jaguars topped Burns’ deal for Josh Hines-Allen. Neither player has been confused with a top-tier edge rusher, but they are now the NFL’s second- and third-highest-paid cogs at the position. Burns, 26, ranks just 12th and 14th in sacks and QB hits since entering the league as a Ron Rivera-Marty Hurney draftee in 2019. This saga still did not make the Panthers look great, given what they passed on two Octobers ago. But Morgan took what he could get late in the game and greenlit a full-on (lower-cost) reboot on the edge.

A day later, Carolina pounced on a Pittsburgh asset that should have more upside compared to what the team gave up. Johnson has been a better player than Jackson, consistently showing high-end separation skills. Drops have plagued the shifty route runner, but he is frequently open. The former third-round pick ranked in the top four in ESPN’s Open Score metric each year from 2019-22, leading the league twice in that span. Johnson, 28, played with Mason Rudolph, a declining Ben Roethlisberger, Mitch Trubisky and potential bust Kenny Pickett. Drawing 140-plus targets each season from 2020-22, Johnson should see plenty of looks in a Panthers contract year.

Carolina acquired Johnson’s two-year, $36.71MM contract, which pairs with Young’s rookie deal and the rookie-scale pacts of Xavier Legette and Jonathan Mingo. Last year’s Panthers receiving leader, Adam Thielen, is now 34 and does not have any guarantees on his contract post-2024. Johnson is interested in a Panthers extension, and unless this fit proves poor, the team is in position to authorize one. If nothing else, the five-year Steeler should give Young an open target in a crucial season for his development.

A 2018 second-rounder, Jackson signed a three-year, $35.18MM deal during Rhule’s time in charge. Jackson, who reworked his deal with the Steelers, was a potential release candidate. Carolina landing Johnson in the deal probably qualifies as a win. The 76-game starter did bounce back from an injury-plagued 2022, but he turns 29 this fall. Johnson will cost more on a third contract, but the Toledo alum almost definitely has longer to play.

Free agency additions:

Week 18 of the 2022 season saw Panthers starters Austin Corbett and Brady Christensen go down with major injuries. Both sustained new maladies in 2023, with the latter lost for the season in Week 1. The Panthers struggled to protect Young, and just as the Saints did during Drew Brees‘ tenure, the team sought interior protection for a short quarterback. Two teams signed multiple guards in PFR’s top 50; the Panthers joined the Rams in that regard. Four of the five eight-figure-per-year free agency deals for guards came from Carolina or Los Angeles, and Hunt’s led the way by a notable margin.

Relocated from right tackle to right guard after his rookie season, Hunt started there for three years and set himself up for a windfall. He is one of just five guards to be tied to a deal worth at least $20MM per year.

Becoming free agency-eligible — during a year that brought Miami cap trouble — unleashed Hunt and Christian Wilkins on the market, and the Panthers are betting big the former second-round pick can lead a turnaround. PFF slotted Hunt as a top-12 guard in each of the past two seasons. This can be labeled an overpay due to Hunt (28 on Saturday) having no Pro Bowl of All-Pro nods on his resume, but the cap spiked by a record $30.6MM. Certain players benefited, few more so than Hunt.

A four-year starter in Seattle, Lewis flew a bit under the radar by comparison. Teams still drove his market past $13MM per year, making the former third-rounder a top-15 earner on an escalating market. More road grader than pass protector, Lewis ranked fourth in run block win rate in 2022. While the 27-year-old lineman saw his PFF placements vacillate, this deep guard class did remarkably well.

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Offseason In Review: Buffalo Bills

August 22nd, 2024 at 9:57pm CST by Sam Robinson

The Chiefs once again flipped a regular-season loss to the Bills into a playoff win, continuing a series that keeps seeing Buffalo’s Super Bowl path blocked despite the AFC East champions holding their own in the matchup. After an injury-battered Bills defense came up short in Round 2 last year, the team set about a retooling effort that featured more notable changes on the other side of the ball. Josh Allen has a new-look receiving corps. For the first time since his ascent to superstardom, the do-it-all QB will not be targeting Stefon Diggs.

Additional Bills moves centered on cap-based adjustments, with a few longtime starters — some longer in the tooth, others who had dealt with injuries — also out of the picture. As a result, curiosity surrounds Sean McDermott‘s team and perhaps the eighth-year HC’s status. But the Bills still have Allen and many key pieces from their early-2020s stay atop their division. While they should still remain a factor in the Super Bowl chase, plenty of eyes will be on this team as it reshapes its blueprint to reach its long-sought-after goal.

Trades:

As difficult as it appeared Diggs was for the Bills to manage at points, his 2020 arrival played a pivotal role in Allen catapulting toward his current place in the game. The 2018 first-round pick took a seminal step in Diggs’ debut, and the former Vikings draftee became one of the NFL’s most consistent pass catchers in Buffalo.

The Allen-Diggs tandem produced three straight 1,200-plus-yard seasons, with Year 1 doubling as Diggs’ lone first-team All-Pro showing. The elite route runner also displayed durability for a Bills team that shuffled through second bananas in the passing game, missing only one contest in four seasons. Though, last year brought some concerning signs.

Diggs, 30, struggled down the stretch, averaging only 41 yards per game and scoring just once over the Bills’ final 10 contests; Joe Brady‘s offense did not coax the nine-year veteran’s best work. Diggs’ 1,183-yard season brought speedbumps and produced a brutal final act — dropping a well-placed Allen deep ball late in another narrow January loss to the Chiefs.

Diggs’ sudden production decline came a year after he stormed out of Buffalo’s locker room following a one-sided loss to Cincinnati. During the 2023 offseason program, Diggs left the Bills’ facility unexpectedly — before McDermott called the confusing matter, which may or may not have stemmed from the wideout’s role in the offense, “very concerning.” A year later, Diggs will be asked to help the Texans develop C.J. Stroud.

A report pointed to the Texans including a 2025 second-rounder as changing Buffalo brass’ mind on retaining the WR. That said, this trade brought a non-QB record for single-player dead money ($31.1MM). That full amount is on the Bills’ 2024 cap sheet. Considering what it cost the Bills to trade their top target, it clearly did not take too much convincing on the Texans’ part. Indeed, an April report indicated Diggs’ antics had worn thin and Bills higher-ups were ready to move on. Ultimately, Diggs (zero TDs with Brady at the controls) expected to be traded for a second time.

The Texans had pursued Keenan Allen; they needed to give the Bills more than the Bears sent the Chargers. Houston curiously removed the final three seasons of Diggs’ Bills-constructed extension — four years, $96MM — in a reported effort to better motivate the veteran playmaker. That odd decision will put Diggs on track for free agency come March, barring an extension before that point. Diggs exiting western New York with four years remaining on his contract injects uncertainty into the Bills’ equation, as Allen’s age-28 season does not seem likely to include a true No. 1 receiver. Allen has obviously displayed tremendous growth since his rocky pre-Diggs years, but his team has an issue to sort out soon.

Playing on a Bears-designed contract for the past two seasons, Bates is now part of that team. The Bills matched the Bears’ RFA offer sheet during Ryan Poles‘ first offseason running the NFC North franchise, but after using Bates as a starter in 15 games in 2022, they demoted him upon adding guards Connor McGovern and O’Cyrus Torrence. Bates worked strictly as a backup last season; the 27-year-old blocker is vying for Chicago’s starting center role while giving the team an option at right guard.

Extensions and restructures:

More attention surrounded the players the Bills lost this offseason, but the team paid two core performers. Dawkins is the longest-tenured Bills left tackle since Jim Kelly– and Doug Flutie-era blindsider John Fina. Only Fina (131) and 1970s and ’80s LT bastion Ken Jones (130) have served longer in this role. Carrying 106 career starts, Dawkins will have a chance to top this list during the 2025 season. Cordy Glenn‘s LT successor has made the past three Pro Bowls, anchoring an O-line that has seen changes come to pass everywhere else during his eight-year tenure.

Pass block win rate placed Dawkins fourth overall among tackles last season, and Pro Football Focus has ranked him outside the top 25 among tackles only once (2018). Dawkins, 30, has also avoided injuries. A second-round pick during the draft McDermott and Doug Whaley shepherded (one that also produced Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano), Dawkins has been one of the team’s catalysts during this rise. This third contract should include more prime years for the Temple product, who is now the NFL’s sixth-highest-paid LT. Given Dawkins’ stability, the Bills having him at this rate represents good value.

Coming into the offseason, the slot cornerback market had stagnated. Neither Johnson nor Kenny Moore were able to score deals beyond where 2010s All-Decade slot Chris Harris went ($8.5MM AAV) during the 2014 season. Both current AFC slot staples finally elevated the market to eight-figure-per-year territory. Moore re-signed with the Colts at three years and $30MM; Johnson topped that days later to become the league’s highest-paid inside corner. The Bills CB’s guarantee at signing also narrowly topped Moore’s $16MM figure, which is impressive considering the latter hit free agency.

During Johnson’s second contract, the Bills have seen their outside corners struggle to either stay healthy (Tre’Davious White) or justify a first-round investment (Kaiir Elam). Johnson, meanwhile, has anchored Buffalo’s CB corps during the 2020s. PFF gave the 2018 fourth-rounder a career-best grade last season, ranking him 17th among all corners, and his 7.4 yards per target figure was his best mark since his rookie season. Johnson also forced three fumbles in 2023. As the Bills transition from White, they will need Johnson (28) to keep delivering top-shelf work inside.

Miller’s status loomed as tenuous during a season in which he was clearly hampered by a second ACL tear. The year ended with the future Hall of Famer being arrested on a third-degree felony charge of assaulting a pregnant person. Both Miller and the alleged victim, his girlfriend, denied a crime occurred. An NFL suspension would void Miller’s remaining guarantees — $8.5MM for 2024. After this year, no guaranteed money remains on a deal that has not worked out the way the Bills hoped. Nothing has come out in 2024 regarding any potential punishment for the 35-year-old edge rusher, and the Bills restructuring the deal firmly keeps Miller in their plans.

The former Broncos and Rams superstar said he is 100% healthy; he is now nearly 21 months removed from the knee injury that ended his 2022 season — a promising campaign that featured eight sacks in 11 games — and sidetracked his 2023 slate. Miller played in 12 games, starting none, last season and did not resemble the dominant sack artist the Bills signed for $20MM per. The team will hope the 14th-year vet has another rebound season in him, as it lost Leonard Floyd in free agency. Due to this restructure, the Bills would take on $15.4MM in dead money if they released Miller next year.

Allen denied he is unhappy with his contract, but the Bills have an incredible bargain atop their payroll. Their $43MM-per-year Allen accord has aged remarkably well, as the perennial MVP candidate — after Jared Goff, Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa and Jordan Love joined the $50MM-AAV club — is the NFL’s 13th-highest-paid QB. The Bills could move money around the way the Chiefs did to accommodate Patrick Mahomes‘ deal.

Thus far, Allen is the only QB who has emulated Mahomes by signing an extension longer than five years. The six-year pact Allen signed runs through 2028, and like Mahomes’ deal, Allen’s has extended space for base-to-bonus restructures. The Bills took advantage of that flexibility in March.

The Bills will need to address this matter in the not-too-distant future. With five more seasons on the contract, the team can sit tight for now. As is the case with Mahomes and the Chiefs, however, the QB carries significant leverage due simply to his franchise-elevating skillset. It will be interesting to see if the seventh-year passer uses it soon, especially when factoring in the run-game role the former No. 7 overall pick has taken on — only two QBs (Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton) have logged more carries through six seasons — thus far in his career.

Free agency additions:

Buffalo began to reassemble its wide receiver pieces in March, though Samuel and Hollins joined the team when Diggs was still expected to be the WR1. This equation soon involved Valdes-Scantling, Byrd, Hamler and Chase Claypool. The twice-traded WR, however, is out of the picture via an injury settlement. Holdover Khalil Shakir and second-round pick Keon Coleman figure to lead the way for the Bills, with a heavy assist from TEs Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox, but the team will need auxiliary help at least from free agents.

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Offseason In Review: Green Bay Packers

August 20th, 2024 at 10:17pm CST by Sam Robinson

Continuing to zag when it comes to quarterback development and roster construction, the Packers centered their offseason around a Jordan Love commitment. After seeing a promising second half from their Aaron Rodgers successor nearly produce a voyage to the NFC championship game, the Pack are back in the franchise-QB payment business.

Love’s monster extension complements an offense that lost two of its veteran pillars — in Aaron Jones and David Bakhtiari — as the team continues to build around lofty investments on the defensive side. But the Packers’ Love decision, which is certainly a different route when it comes to an experience-to-dollars ratio, will define the franchise for the foreseeable future.

Extensions and restructures:

When Rodgers agreed to his first extension during his 2008 starter debut season — a six-year, $63.52MM deal, illustrating where QB contracts have gone — it did not check in as a record-setting payday. It was not particularly close, either. Carson Palmer‘s Bengals extension outflanked Rodgers’ first Packers deal. So did Peyton Manning‘s 2004 Colts payday, along with Tom Brady‘s first Patriots re-up and Ben Roethlisberger‘s initial Steelers extension. That gave the Packers a runway to better learn about Rodgers’ capabilities. The organization was certainly proven right and suddenly had a bargain deal at quarterback until the 2013 offseason.

Today’s skyrocketing QB market changed the equation for Love and the team, which needed to match an NFL-record AAV for a player with 18 regular-season starts. This era of one-upping differs from how a few teams handled QB contracts even following Rodgers’ 2013 extension. No one topped the Packer QB’s $22MM-per-year deal until the 2016 offseason. A host of deals in 2015 (for Roethlisberger, Wilson, Cam Newton, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers) settled between $20MM and $21.9MM per year, acknowledging Rodgers’ place in the game. For the most part, these sort of acknowledgments no longer exist.

Love’s deal not coming with a discount keeps the Packers in the high-cost QB business, as 2023 — which featured near-record-tying (pre-Russell Wilson, at least) dead money from the Rodgers trade — did not bring a reprieve. Diving right back into a top-market contract, as Rodgers’ deal came off the books this year, ramps up the pressure for Brian Gutekunst and Co. to be right on the player they traded up for in 2020.

Both parties wanted this deal done by training camp, and Love held in to complete the process. The Packers agreeing to a half-measure extension, rather than pick up a fully guaranteed fifth-year option on a player who entered 2023 with one career start, provided Love leverage. The QB capitalized, joining Tua Tagovailoa in this regard, on his contract-year status. The Packers would have faced a $40MM-plus 2025 cap hold had Love played out this season and brought the threat of a franchise tag. Whereas teams have held more control during this process by extending a first-round quarterback after his third season, Green Bay’s outlier three-year apprenticeship program did not give the team that option. After a promising close to last season, Love was able to exert more control in this process.

Struggling during much of the season’s first half, Love led the NFL in QBR from Weeks 11-18 — a stretch that included 18 TD passes and one INT. The four-year veteran was then tremendous in the Packers’ wild-card upset over the Cowboys, before leading the NFC’s first competitive No. 7 seed to a narrow loss over the eventual NFC champion 49ers. Love obviously made for an atypical extension candidate, but the Packers are all in.

Contract structure was believed to be the final issue for Love’s camp. A team that does not do post-Year 1 guarantees beyond signing bonuses again bent for a quarterback, and Love secured the increasingly popular rolling guarantee structure on this deal.

Love’s 2025 salary is guaranteed at signing, and his 2026 base salary is partially guaranteed already. That 2026 figure will become fully guaranteed in 2025. That structure pertains to Love’s 2027 base salary as well. The team guaranteed $20MM of the QB’s ’27 base ($41.9MM) for injury at signing; that $20MM shifts to a full guarantee a year early. Love did remarkably well on this contract and will be positioned, should his late-season form be indicative of his career trajectory, to cash in again before age 30.

The Packers took care of Clark before his contract year, bringing up an extension earlier this offseason and completing the agreement before training camp. Despite coming into the league in 2016, Clark will not turn 29 until October. The Pack should have more prime years coming from the former first-round pick — one of six first-rounders still on Green Bay’s defense — and they completed a deal without going into the top 10 on a swiftly rising D-tackle market. Clark’s $21.33MM AAV both marked a notable raise and the 11th-highest-paid DT accord.

Keeping with the Pack’s non-QB standard, the only guaranteed money in Clark’s deal comes from his signing bonus. But the eighth-year DT is owed a $7.5MM roster bonus next March. That ups the practical guarantee to $25MM. It would cost the Packers $17MM in dead money to move on from Clark in 2026, due to signing bonus proration. This gives the veteran a good chance of staying on this through-2027 deal for at least three seasons. Clark is due an $11MM roster bonus in 2026.

The UCLA alum ranks seventh in starts (109) by a Packer D-lineman. He can move into first all time on this contract; Dave Hanner (1953-64) holds that mark at 141.

Free agency additions:

Although Hard Knocks primarily focused on the Giants’ Saquon Barkley loss, it also revealed surprise on Giants GM Joe Schoen‘s part upon learning McKinney’s contract.After factoring in a McKinney extension upon letting Julian Love walk in 2023, the Giants did not keep him off the market for the transition tag sum ($13.8MM). That may have been a mistake. The former second-round pick proceeded to score a top-four safety contract, with the Packers paying up to address an issue.

Green Bay moved on from its top three safeties last year (Darnell Savage. Jonathan Owens, Rudy Ford) and paid McKinney, who submitted two quality Giants seasons and two injury-plagued years. After a McKinney ATV accident led to him missing much of the 2022 campaign, Pro Football Focus graded him as the No. 4 overall safety last season. McKinney, 26, represents an out-of-character move from the Packers, who are not known for paying safeties or signing off on — even in the Gutekunst era — top-market free agency accords.

McKinney played the Jessie Bates role on this year’s market. As another macro safety evaluation appeared to take place this year — leading to the releases of several prominent veterans and a slew of mid-market payments for unrestricted free agents — McKinney’s price came in nearly $8MM higher (in terms of AAV) than any other UFA safety. After Bates (four years, $64MM) rewarded the Falcons for their high-cost addition, the Packers won a bidding war for McKinney, who has also shown quality ball skills in his career. The Alabama alum intercepted five passes in 2021 and three last season. Referring to himself as the game’s best safety, McKinney will attempt to prove it in Wisconsin.

Perhaps the most notable participant on a historically busy day at the running back position, the Packers said goodbye to a seven-year regular (Aaron Jones) and brought in Jacobs. The five-year Raiders starter is three years younger than Jones, and while the former has not proven as dynamic, the incumbent approaching his 30th birthday undoubtedly played into Green Bay’s thinking here. Jacobs, 26, won the 2022 rushing title but is coming off a far less productive year on the franchise tag. The Packers will bet on more prime years remaining for Jacobs, who was part of last year’s famous RB macro evaluation.

The Raiders, Giants and Cowboys respectively not extending their tagged running backs — after the Packers had given Jones a pay cut and the Cowboys (Ezekiel Elliott) and Vikings (Dalvin Cook) had released longtime starters — prompted a Zoom meeting among key backs about their state of the union. Jacobs, who rampaged for an NFL-high 2,053 scrimmage yards and 12 touchdowns in 2022, accumulated only 1,101 last season — before missing four games due to multiple contusions. After producing the fifth-most rushing yards over expected in 2022 (158), Jacobs finished with the fifth-worst number (minus-86) last year.

Matt LaFleur admitted he was caught off-guard by how the Packers’ running back situation shook out, and Jacobs also indicated he turned down more money elsewhere. More pass-game opportunities should be expected to emerge for Jacobs, who did catch 107 combined passes from 2021-22.

Green Bay’s Jones-to-Jacobs transition is also interesting due to the younger back having more career touches (1,502) compared to Jones (1,449). Jacobs has missed 10 career games; since 2019, Jones has also missed 10. Six of those came last season. While the Packers guaranteed Jacobs just $12.5MM, he is due a $5.93MM signing bonus if on Green Bay’s roster on Day 5 of the 2025 league year.

This profiles as a two-year deal before a year-to-year scenario takes shape in 2026. Even if Jacobs’ 2025 roster bonus is included, he still fetched far less in fully guaranteed money than Barkley, who secured $26MM from the Eagles despite a well-documented injury history and a higher touch total.

Re-signings:

Adding slot cornerback to his duties along with return specialist, Nixon scored a solid veteran deal two years after following Rich Bisaccia from Las Vegas. The Raiders nontendered Nixon as an RFA in 2022, leading to Bisaccia’s new team reaching out. Nixon mostly focused on a return-game role in 2022; he blazed to first-team All-Pro status as a kick returner. Nixon repeated that feat in 2023, and the Packers re-signed him just before the NFL radically revamped its kickoff setup. That change stands to make Nixon more valuable.

Of course, Nixon receiving a $6MM-per-year deal was also contingent on him continuing as the team’s slot corner. The Packers abandoned their Rasul Douglas slot experiment during the 2022 season and went into last year with Nixon in that role. He played 937 defensive snaps — by far a career high — and while PFF graded him outside the top 80 and Pro-Football-Reference’s coverage metrics applied higher numbers in terms of completion percentage (77.8%) and passer rating (104.8), the Packers clearly value the former UDFA in a cornerback group that features little certainty beyond Jaire Alexander.

Dillon did not do nearly as well in free agency. On a crowded RB market, the inside grinder settled for a deal that provided next to no guaranteed money. Jones’ powerful complementary option for four seasons, Dillon averaged a career-worst 3.4 yards per carry last year — his first under 4.1 per tote.

The former second-round pick has been effective in the past, and while he said a bit more money may have been out there for him, the Green Bay aficionado — Dillon plans to camp in the city following his NFL career — entered training camp on the roster bubble.

Notable losses:

As Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul ran wild during the 2020 NFC championship game, Bakhtiari’s absence created one of the bigger what-ifs in offensive line history. The Packers saw an ACL tear sustained during a New Year’s Eve practice change their left tackle course, as Bakhtiari — a first-team All-Pro that season and a five-time All-Pro over his career — has been unable to stay healthy since.

The stalwart LT missed all but 27 snaps in 2021, returning to the sideline after debuting in a meaningless Week 18 game, and — after showing promising form in 11 games back in 2022 — missed almost all of last season. This all pointed to a 2024 separation.

Green Bay had restructured Bakhtiari’s deal in 2021 and ’22, immediately seeing the four-year, $92MM extension — only Rodgers and Love have signed more lucrative deals among Packers — become an issue quickly due to the once-dependable LT signing it weeks before his knee injury. Bakhtiari, who has undergone five knee surgeries since that fateful practice, will count $18.15MM in dead money this year. Like Rodgers’ dead cap hit in 2023, Bakhtiari’s contract will be off the team’s books for good after a year. The 11-year veteran, 33 in September, wants to keep playing but has not caught on anywhere.

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Offseason In Review: Cleveland Browns

August 20th, 2024 at 10:14pm CST by Adam La Rose

Year 2 of the Deshaun Watson era in Cleveland did not go according to plan for team or player in 2023. A lingering shoulder injury limited the high-priced passer to six games and set off a number of changes made in the lineup at the quarterback position. The Browns managed to post a record of 11-6 while relying on Joe Flacco down the stretch and managing a slew of other ailments on offense.

Nick Chubb is among the key players still on the mend for Cleveland as the team looks to improve on a 2023 wild-card berth. Stability on the sidelines and in the front office should help that effort, and the Browns return one of the league’s top defenses. Once again, however, attention will be placed on Watson’s ability to stay on the field and deliver on his fully guaranteed contract. Three years remain on his monster pact, one which is set to carry a record-breaking cap charge in 2024.

Trades:

Amari Cooper has delivered during his time in Cleveland, racking up over 2,400 yards and 14 touchdowns across the past two years. The five-time Pro Bowler has thus served as a needed No. 1 wideout on his third career team, but finding consistent complementary options has been an organizational priority recently. Elijah Moore was acquired via trade last March, and the same was true of Jeudy one year later.

The latter struggled to live up to expectations in Denver, with his best campaign coming in 2022 (during which he posted a 67-927-6 statline). Jeudy – alongside fellow Broncos wideout Courtland Sutton – was frequently mentioned as a trade candidate near the past two trade deadlines, but no move was made in either case. The Broncos then set a high trade price on Jeudy — a first-round pick — during the 2023 offseason. The first year with Sean Payton at the helm was beneficial for Sutton’s production much more than it was for Jeudy’s. Months later, the team was willing to move on for a much lower return.

The former first-rounder made it known after his Cleveland arrival that he asked to be dealt ahead of the 2023 campaign. Payton rejected that request at first, but Jeudy repeated it after the campaign, one in which his statistical output took a step back. The fact the Alabama product was entering a contract year at the time of the swap helps explain the underwhelming trade terms from Denver’s perspective. Jeudy quickly worked out a multiyear extension with the Browns, however, eliminating the chance of a free agent departure after his fifth-year option season.

That three-year, $52.5MM deal contains $41MM in guarantees. It ensures Jeudy will remain in place through 2027 and represents a rather notable investment in his ability to develop into at least a consistent starting option. Numerous receiver deals have eclipsed the value of Jeudy’s pact in recent months, but Cleveland is clearly banking on solid play from him with or without Cooper leading the way down the road.

A trio of Cooper, Jeudy and Moore should give the Browns their best WR room since the Watson acquisition. Especially if Chubb misses time early in the campaign, an efficient passing game will be key to the Browns’ success on offense. If Jeudy acclimates well in an environment he chose to enter, the former No. 15 overall pick will be a key contributor in that regard.

Harris played out his rookie contract with the Browns, making 40 appearances and four starts. He departed on the open market by taking a one-year Seahawks deal worth $2.51MM and thus earning the chance to compete for a starting role. Seattle recently signed Connor Williams, however, providing the team with a more experienced option in the middle.

The Browns, meanwhile, have run into injury trouble at center. The latest example of that was backup Luke Wypler suffering an ankle injury in the team’s preseason opener which will require surgery. Harris, 25, will thus return to Cleveland in position to serve as a No. 2 option to Ethan Pocic. The trade saw Harris and a seventh-round pick come back in return for a sixth-rounder.

Free agency additions:

Hicks’ arrival will allow him to reunite with defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. The pair worked together in Philadelphia at the start of Hicks’ career. The former third-rounder developed into a full-time starter during that span, notching five interceptions in 2016. He turned in a healthy three-year stretch in Arizona before spending the past two seasons with the Vikings.

Hicks was limited to 13 games in 2023, but he still managed a fifth consecutive season with triple-digit tackles. The 32-year-old may not be expected to replicate his production against the pass from his Eagles tenure, but he should handle starting duties with his fourth team. Cleveland’s edge rush and secondary are set to remain strong in 2024. Still, the linebacker position faces questions marks. Hicks should provide dependable first-team play at a reasonable cost.

Bush, by contrast, represents a low-risk, high-reward investment. The former top-10 pick failed to live up to expectations in Pittsburgh, leading to a one-year Seahawks deal last offseason. Bush, 26, played sparingly on defense and was not a key special teams contributor. This season will provide him with another opportunity to carve out a rotational role and thus help his market value, though.

While Joe Flacco expressed interest in a new Browns deal after his surprisingly successful tenure to close out the season, Cleveland explored other backup options. That led to Winston connections quickly developing. The Browns were known to have the former No. 1 pick on their radar ahead of the new league year, although they were joined in that respect by the Titans and Giants.

Winston has continued to express interest in a starting gig despite serving as a Saints backup for most of the past four seasons. The 30-year-old’s last full campaign in a No. 1 role was 2019, when he memorably closed out his Buccaneers tenure with 33 touchdowns and 30 interceptions. Watson’s history of missed time with the Browns certainly suggests the door could open to notable playing time for Winston this season. In that event, the latter could help his free agent stock considerably with a strong showing. At a minimum, though, the former No. 1 overall pick should provide the team with a veteran backup capable of handling first-team duties over an extended stretch if needed.

Watson and Winston occupy the top two spots on the QB depth chart, and Huntley is in competition with 2023 fifth-rounder Dorian Thompson-Robinson for the No. 3 gig. After joining the Ravens as a UDFA, Huntley made a total of 10 starts (including one in the playoffs) across four seasons. That experience led to interest from the Steelers and could give him a leg up on Thompson-Robinson (whose struggles as a rookie helped inform the move to Flacco as starter), but limited guarantees make Huntley’s hold on a roster spot a tenuous one.

Jefferson spent five of his first seven NFL seasons in Seattle, but he has not managed to find a long-term home in recent years. The 31-year-old played single campaigns with the Bills (2020), Raiders (2021) and Jets (2023) while remaining a regular contributor at every stop. Jefferson set a new career high in sacks last season with six, and he has posted at least three every year since 2018. While his deal pales in comparison to the one Dalvin Tomlinson landed last offseason, Jefferson should be counted on as a key contributor along the interior for Cleveland.

With Chubb’s health and return timeline a question mark, it came as little surprise the Browns made multiple backfield additions. Hines suffered an ACL tear during an offseason jet ski accident, and he missed the 2023 campaign as a result. The chance to reunite with offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey (after working with him in Buffalo) and handle the role of returner appealed to Hines when making his free agent decision. If the former Colts contributor can regain his previous form upon returning to health, he could thrive as a pass-catching specialist and third-phase producer.

Foreman’s path to a roster spot is narrower. The 28-year-old entered training camp in competition with Pierre Strong Jr. for the third spot on the RB depth chart. That role will be in place only until Chubb returns, of course, and neither player has considerable guaranteed money on their contract. Foreman’s 4.2 career yards per carry average could make him an attractive option for outside teams during roster cutdowns if he becomes available, though.

Re-signings:

The Browns did not make any major splashes in terms of adding outside free agents, and Smith was the only player listed amongst PFR’s top 50 options on the open market. The three-time Pro Bowler made his return to the AFC North last offseason by taking a one-year Cleveland pact. A former Ravens draftee, Smith remained productive when healthy during his time with the Packers (2019-21, 26 sacks) and Vikings (2022, 10 sacks). A first-team role awaited him upon arrival with the Browns, but his 5.5 sacks were his fewest in a full campaign since 2017.

Nevertheless, Smith landed a notable deal to remain with the Browns. The former fourth-rounder received a signing bonus of nearly $11MM, and he will collect a $2MM roster bonus early in 2025. Smith should be expected to remain Myles Garrett’s main complement, although Ogbonnia Okoronkwo logged a career-high 53% snap share in his debut Browns campaign. The latter posted 4.5 sacks, and continued development could cut into Smith’s playing time and production moving forward.

While Jefferson will take on a notable workload with Cleveland, Harris should also maintain a key rotational role given the team’s decision to retain him through 2025. The 33-year-old’s snap share in 2023 (42%) was his lowest since 2015, and his statistical output took a step back as a result. Harris has starting experience dating back to his time with the Broncos and Seahawks, however, so he will be capable of handling an uptick in usage if injuries or poor play become an issue for Cleveland’s new arrivals on the D-line.

McLeod was not a full-time starter in 2023, his first season with the Browns. That made this past campaign the first since his rookie year in which he did not start every contest. The 12-year veteran gave thought to retiring after this past season, one in which a biceps injury limited him to 10 games. However, he will carry on for one more year in search of a second Super Bowl ring. McLeod will again offer Cleveland a highly experienced backup behind Grant Delpit and Juan Thornhill in 2024.  

Bojorquez has spent the past two seasons with the Browns after his time with the Bills and Packers. The New Mexico alum led the NFL in yards per punt during the 2020 season, and while he has not been able to duplicate that feat in recent years he has remained consistent. Keeping Bojorquez in the fold will allow Cleveland to have multiyear continuity on special teams with kicker Dustin Hopkins and long snapper Charley Hughlett still in place for 2024 and beyond.

Notable losses:

Flacco first joined the Browns in November, and he made his first start in Week 12. The former Super Bowl MVP’s level of play over the next five weeks (4-1 record, 13 touchdown passes, 90.2 passer rating) quickly put to rest questions about who would serve as starter during the playoffs with Watson sidelined. Flacco was rested for Cleveland’s meaningless regular-season finale, but he was not at his best in the wild-card round. A two-interception game (bringing his total in that department to 10 on the year) ended in a 45-14 loss to the Texans.

In the aftermath of that contest, it appeared a mutual interest existed between team and player for their relationship to continue. To that end, the 2023 Comeback Player of the Year was surprised he wound up needing to find a new home in free agency. The Eagles made an offer for what would have been a reunion after Flacco spent part of the 2021 season in Philadelphia. Instead, the team would up trading for Kenny Pickett.

Flacco signed with the Colts to serve as a replacement for Gardner Minshew. Indianapolis will hope to have better health from Anthony Richardson in 2024, something which would keep Flacco in the role of mentor. The 39-year-old has shown, however, that under the right circumstances he can step in on short notice and keep an offense afloat if needed despite his age.

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5 Key Stories: 8/11/24 – 8/18/24

August 18th, 2024 at 5:29pm CST by Adam La Rose

As the preseason rolls on, teams around the league continue to evaluate their rosters as well as their contract situations. A number of finanal decisions were made in recent days, while several other cases are unresolved. In case you missed any of the top stories from the past week, here is a quick recap:

  • Falcons Trade For Judon, Sign Simmons: The Falcons made a pair of high-profile additions, both of which will help on defense. Atlanta sent a third-round pick to New England for edge rusher Matt Judon. The four-time Pro Bowler expressed frustration with a lack of a Patriots extension, leading to interest on the trade front from outside teams. Notably, though, no multi-year commitment has been made on the Falcons’ part, leaving Judon on track for free agency in March. After hosting Justin Simmons, meanwhile, Atlanta added the Pro Bowl safety on a one-year deal including $7.5MM guaranteed. Simmons, 30, had a lengthy spell in free agency after his Broncos release but still managed to land a lucrative deal. With four second-team All-Pro nods on his resume, he will form an intriguing safety tandem alongside Jessie Bates for the 2024 campaign. Judon and Simmons figure to raise Atlanta’s expectations on defense by a considerable margin as the team eyes a playoff berth.
  • Steelers, 49ers Have Aiyuk Trade In Place: No final decision has been made with respect to Brandon Aiyuk, but the Steelers and 49ers now have a trade agreement worked out. Pittsburgh remains a destination the 26-year-old is highly interested in, but San Francisco still has an offer on the table. The latter team may have a small edge in terms of receiving an Aiyuk commitment with the former representing a fallback option. Both the Patriots and Browns had serious trade talks, but the second-team All-Pro did not want to play in New England or Cleveland. His decision rests on remaining in the Bay Area with a team facing serious cap challenges in the near future or joining the Steelers and a new-look offense which features quarterback questions. With the regular season nearing, an end to this saga should be expected in short order.
  • Jets’ Reddick Submits Trade Request: The Jets acquired Haason Reddick via trade this offseason, but no extension agreement was in place once the swap was final. The Pro Bowl edge rusher has since skipped minicamp and training camp, and the lack of a deal prompted a trade request. To little surprise, New York general manager Joe Douglas quickly confirmed no consideration will be given to moving on from Reddick, who has one year remaining on his pact. The Jets reportedly made at least one offer around the time of the trade, but the team is not willing to negotiate further until the 29-year-old ends his holdout. That effort has resulted in daily fines being accumulated, and Reddick could lose part of his signing bonus as well. With both sides dug in, it will be interesting to see if a resolution of some kind (most likely incentives being added to the contract) is worked out in time for Week 1.
  • McCarthy To Miss Vikings Rookie Season: J.J. McCarthy suffered a meniscus injury which required surgery. It was clear right away an absence of some kind would be in store, but the procedure wound up being a full repair; as such, the first-round rookie will miss the 2024 campaign. McCarthy entered training camp as Minnesota’s backup to Sam Darnold, but he will now not be able to compete for the No. 1 gig or at least continue his development through the fall. The Vikings let Kirk Cousins depart in free agency and signed Darnold to only a one-year deal. McCarthy – one of the 2024 class’ youngest passers and a national champion with Michigan this past season – is firmly in the team’s plans for the long-term future. He will enter 2025 with merely one preseason game of experience, however.
  • Owusu-Koramoah Lands Browns Extension: Known to be on the Browns’ radar for a long-term deal, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah worked out a extension which will keep him in place through 2027. The Pro Bowl linebacker secured $25MM in total guarantees and an AAV of $12.5MM. The latter figure ranks sixth amongst middle linebackers and demonstrates the confidence Cleveland has in his ability to remain a key producer on defense. The 24-year-old totaled 101 tackles, 3.5 sacks and a pair of interceptions last season; replicating that production in the future will prove this investment to be worthwhile. The Browns underwent many changes at the second level this offseason, but Owusu-Koramoah will be a constant for the LB unit now and moving forward.

Offseason In Review: New Orleans Saints

August 17th, 2024 at 9:02pm CST by Sam Robinson

Checking in as a lower-profile team since Drew Brees‘ retirement and Sean Payton‘s exit, the Saints have not deviated too far from their Payton-era M.O. No rebuild has taken place, and GM Mickey Loomis‘ cap gymnastics remain in high gear. But the team’s fight has produced solidly middle-class residency post-Brees. This offseason brought some attempted fixes and the usual avalanche of restructures. Will they be enough to move the Saints out of this unremarkable sector they have populated for the past few years?

Extensions and restructures:

We will go ahead and assume none of our remaining Offseason In Review offerings will feature this level of restructure volume, but the Saints’ perpetual quest to delay a rebuild/cap reset is one of the NFL’s more underrated offseason features. Loomis continues to creatively reach cap compliance — to the point it is almost easier to name the starters whose contracts were not adjusted. More than $80MM over the cap entering the offseason — Loomis has moved under the cap from deeper in the red before — the Saints benefited from the $30.6MM cap spike.

When the Saints signed Carr, they gave him a $70MM practical guarantee. The 11th-year veteran will be due a $10MM roster bonus (already guaranteed) next year and has $10MM of his 2025 base salary ($30MM) guaranteed. More than $40MM in signing bonus money is now on New Orleans’ books from 2025-28, with three void years included in the deal, as this restructure added $4.6MM to each prorated figure.

This rework will tie Carr to the Saints through at least 2025. Before any other restructures (which may well happen, as this is New Orleans), Carr would cost the team more than $28MM to release in 2026.

The Saints did some work at linebacker this offseason, signing off on another Davis deal before giving Warner a midlevel second contract. Thriving in Dennis Allen‘s scheme, Davis he has been one of this NFL period’s best off-ball linebackers. He is 5-for-5 in All-Pro honors (one first team, four second teams) since his age-30 season, continuing as a three-down player who boosts the Saints’ pass rush in addition to his traditional LB responsibilities. Davis has been a revelation in New Orleans, registering 29 sacks since his 2018 arrival. In terms of off-ball LBs, no one else has more than 23 in that span.

Like ex-Davis teammate Chris Harris at his peak, Pro Football Focus views the do-it-all linebacker in rare air. The advanced metrics site has rated the aging defender as a top-eight off-ball LB in each of the past five seasons. The Saints have used the 12-year vet on between 97-100% of their defensive snaps over the past four, and without noticeable slippage at 35, Davis secured more than two thirds of his 2025 salary guaranteed on this deal — his fourth Saints contract. A key part of Allen’s defenses during the Saints’ late-2010s surge, the perennially underrated defender has a decent shot at playing an age-36 season in New Orleans.

While predicting someone to outlast Davis has been unwise, Werner’s contract puts him in position to anchor the team’s defensive second level after the stalwart’s retirement. Though the Saints can escape this contract fairly easily in 2026, Werner is signed through 2027 on a deal that ranks 18th among non-rush ‘backers.

Rather than try his luck in a contract year and hit free agency, the former second-round pick took an offer in line with an expanding LB middle class. The top of this position’s market thinned this offseason, but teams continue to flood the $6-$10MM-per-year range here. Werner became a full-time player in 2023, logging an 88% snap rate. The Saints expect the 25-year-old defender to build on that run in the mid-2020s.

Signed shortly after the 2022 draft, Mathieu has continued a strong career in his hometown. The two-time Super Bowl starter has not commanded a deal in line with his Chiefs pact (three years, $42MM back in 2019) but remains a productive player. The Saints gave Mathieu a second contract this offseason, one that created $6MM-plus in cap space. Mathieu, 31, secured 2024 guarantees that were not previously in place, though the through-2025 deal does not necessarily ensure the Honey Badger will be back next season.

Lastly, the Saints adjusted Lattimore’s contract in a way that would make him easier to trade. Though, time is running out for that to matter in 2024. The team inserted option bonuses into Lattimore’s contract, which has now been thrice restructured. The $2.76MM 2024 bonus does not need to be paid until just before Week 1, but it would still be reasonable for the Saints to pay the bonus and then trade Lattimore in-season — depending on the offers that emerge. For several weeks now, however, the team has expected to retain Lattimore for an eighth season.

The Pro Bowl cornerback missed seven games last season and 10 in 2022. Some within the organization took issue with the pace at which Lattimore recovered from a lacerated kidney (2022) and last year’s ankle injury. The Saints also considered trades in March, with teams showing interest. Several clubs believed the Saints were indeed shopping Lattimore, whose five-year, $97MM extension runs through 2026. For now, the four-time Pro Bowler remains a Saint. But this will be a situation to monitor if New Orleans starts slowly and Lattimore stays healthy. That said, the 28-year-old CB fits in on a defense flooded with veterans.

Next year’s salary cap number will not surface for months, but the Saints are projected to be $36MM higher than any other team. OverTheCap has New Orleans slotted at $95MM-plus over the projected 2025 salary ceiling. This would be another big test for Loomis, who would face more difficult choices if a fourth straight season goes by without a playoff berth.

Free agency additions:

While this free agency period was less eventful than last year’s Carr-centered project, the Saints added some complementary pieces. One is a high-upside play to address a position that has suddenly become vulnerable.

Young joins a Saints team that saw Cam Jordan post just two sacks — admittedly in an injury-plagued season — in 2023. Payton Turner has also failed to take off after being a first-round pick. The Saints relied on former UDFA Carl Granderson to anchor their pass rush last season, and while he delivered 8.5 sacks and 20 QB hits, the team needs more help as Jordan enters his age-35 season. Enter Young, who stood as one of the most high-variance free agents in recent memory.

Looking like a future star during his 2020 rookie year, Young saw a severe knee injury sidetrack his career in 2021. A torn ACL and ruptured patellar tendon kept the former Defensive Rookie of the Year on the shelf for over a year, but last season brought rejuvenation to the point several teams contacted the Commanders about a trade. The 49ers gave up a third-round compensatory choice for Young, who matched his career-high with 7.5 sacks last season and established a new high-water mark with 15 QB hits. These are not eye-popping numbers, but Young played 19 games last season after losing most of his previous two.

Of course, Young needed the full offseason to rehab a separate issue. A neck injury cost Young Week 1 of last season, and although the four-year veteran played through it, the matter affected his trade market. Young, 25, underwent surgery but has since returned to practice. His health history prompted the Saints to build a contract around per-game roster bonuses; those comprise $7.99MM of Young’s outlay.

As Montez Sweat‘s durability (and production while Young was out) keyed a $24.5MM-per-year Bears extension, Young is deep in “prove it” territory. The former No. 2 overall pick will attempt to rebuild his value, and it will probably take a mostly healthy season for a multiyear offer to form. Otherwise, Young may be on a Jadeveon Clowney-like career arc.

While Drue Tranquill fetched a three-year deal worth $19MM to remain a Chief, Gay could only command a $3MM pact in free agency. Gay has made 47 career starts, and the former second-round pick notched nine tackles for loss (88 total) in just 13 games in 2022. Gay only made 58 stops in 16 games last season, however. The two-time Super Bowl starter has never seen a snap rate north of 70%, and given the Saints’ LB composition, that is unlikely to occur in New Orleans. Gay, 26, can hope to use this season to better his 2025 market.

Re-signings:

Notable losses:

Jettisoning a complex contract marked an appropriate ending for the Saints and Thomas, as the sides enjoyed a torrid start before an extension soon gave way to the former All-Pro becoming one of the NFL’s most injury-prone players. No team has signed Thomas, who would be going into an age-31 season after having missed 47 games during the 2020s. Last season actually brought Thomas’ highest participation rate (10 games) than any since 2019, but the Saints could not realistically continue to roster the eight-year veteran. It was a bit strange they circled back to Thomas in 2023.

Still holding the NFL’s single-season reception record (149), Thomas earned his five-year, $96.25MM extension ahead of that 2019 season. He posted back-to-back first-team All-Pro slates, becoming a lead cast member during the Saints’ late-2010s resurgence. Thomas joined Alvin Kamara as elite skill players in Brees’ twilight years, but the 2020 season provided an unfortunate harbinger of a freefall.

Multiple injuries, including an ankle malady, sidelined Thomas in 2020. He then missed all of 2021, which featured a dispute with the Saints regarding a recovery timetable. In 2022, Thomas played three games before a toe injury intervened. Despite Thomas’ 2023 contract being framed as a one-year deal — before yet another malady (knee) shut him down — the Saints are paying $11.2MM in 2024 dead money and $9.2MM in 2025. Thomas’ 565 career catches trail only Marques Colston in franchise history. Injuries derailed a potential Hall of Fame career.

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Offseason In Review: Tennessee Titans

August 15th, 2024 at 10:00pm CST by Sam Robinson

Barely a year after firing GM Jon Robinson, Amy Adams Strunk pulled the plug on the second high-profile staff extension she authorized back in 2022. Firing Mike Vrabel does not bring a full-on reset for the Titans, but the owner has given GM Ran Carthon the keys. The second-year decision-maker set out to load up his roster around Will Levis‘ rookie contract, leading to some high-priced free agency moves.

As the Titans look to pick up the pieces following a down (and injury-riddled) past two seasons, they also said goodbye to one of the greatest players in team history. With Derrick Henry gone, the Titans — who fired Robinson in December 2022 — have stripped their offense of nearly all the previous GM’s investments. This is Carthon’s show now, and the Titans will attempt to justify their Levis confidence this season.

Coaching/front office:

The Vrabel-Carthon-Adams Strunk partnership soured fast. Although Carthon said he was not in the meeting when Adams Strunk decided to fire Vrabel, the GM benefitted in the form of full roster control. Vrabel had maximized some moderately well-regarded Titans rosters, leading the team to four straight winning seasons and three playoff berths. Tennessee was believed to have a trade chip due to Vrabel’s standing in the game, but in not wanting to see trade talks impede an immediate coaching search, Adams Strunk went through with a much-discussed firing.

Adams Strunk had signed Vrabel and Robinson to extensions shortly after the 2021 season; she will be paying two HCs and two GMs for the foreseeable future. For all of Vrabel’s accomplishments — which includes a Coach of the Year honor, an AFC championship game venture, two division titles and a No. 1 seed — he butted heads with the team’s owner last season.

Carthon’s role became an issue for the coach, who suggested to Adams Strunk she name the ex-49ers exec assistant GM. Vrabel preferred former interim GM Ryan Cowden. This surely did not go over well with Carthon, even though he attempted to distance himself from the firing (however, a report of a rift surfaced late last year). Adams Strunk also considered firing Vrabel after the 2022 season, and she balked at the HC’s request for roster control.

Not exactly pleased with Vrabel’s trip to Foxborough during the Titans’ bye week last season (to be inducted into the Patriots Hall of Fame), Adams Strunk took a risk by jettisoning one of the NFL’s most respected leaders. But Vrabel’s inability to land another HC job during this year’s cycle undoubtedly affected his stock. He will join ex-mentor Bill Belichick on the 2025 coaching carousel. At 49, Vrabel may have a better chance of landing another gig.

The Titans’ Pierce effort did not get off the ground, and Callahan — after five seasons as a non-play-calling OC — became the pick soon after. An extension of the Sean McVay coaching tree (due to being a Zac Taylor lieutenant), Callahan played a central role in a Bengals ascent that included back-to-back AFC championship game appearances for the first time in franchise history.

Vrabel operated as a CEO coach; Adams Strunk’s next hire will have more in-game control. The former Joe Burrow mentor will have his first chance to call plays this season, injecting some uncertainty into the Titans’ proceedings. But they have one of the architects of a quality NFL turnaround. Adams Strunk will hope hiring Callahan, 40, will unlock some levels for a scuffling offense. Taylor being able to retain his coordinators (Callahan, Lou Anarumo) for five seasons was interesting given the team’s resurgence, but after being on the interview circuit for a bit, Callahan will get to work on what looks like a more difficult project, with Levis nowhere near the level of prospect Burrow was.

Wilson stands as the team’s top assistant. This gig comes a year after the Eagles passed over their secondary coach for DC, leading him to Baltimore. Mike Macdonald parlayed the Ravens’ No. 1-ranked defense into an HC job; three of his lieutenants — Wilson, Zach Orr and Anthony Weaver — landed DC positions. A DBs coach since 2015, Wilson paid his dues and will have a shot to be the top defensive voice in a team’s building. Meanwhile, Callahan’s play-calling role will limit Holz’s reach.

Wilson, 42, has a history with Carthon; both were in the Rams organization from 2015-16. Wilson then spent time with the Jets and Eagles, the second of his Philadelphia seasons a Super Bowl campaign. He then helmed Kyle Hamilton to an All-Pro season and Geno Stone to a breakout year.

Holz, 40, has traveled a less conventional path. He bounced between the quality control level and assistant wide receivers coach with the Raiders from 2012-21. After a year as UNLV’s OC, Holz reentered the NFL as the Jags’ pass-game coordinator. Not present for Trevor Lawrence‘s late-season surge in 2022, Holz instead rode an uneven Jags 2023 season into this gig. This hire did not garner much attention, but Holz’s lack of experience as an NFL position coach is notable.

Dot-connecting made predicting the next Titans O-line coach rather easy, though it took the Browns letting Bill Callahan out of his contract to make a reunion with his son possible. The Callahans have never coached on the same staff previously. One of the game’s best O-line coaches, Bill Callahan helped turn the Browns’ front into an elite unit and will now take over the development of first-rounders Peter Skoronski and JC Latham. This will mark a pivotal chapter for the former Raiders HC, who is now 68.

Trades:

Several teams checked on Sneed, whom the Chiefs allowed to seek a trade upon franchise-tagging him. Keeping with its Andy Reid-era approach of not extending or re-signing cornerbacks, Kansas City prioritized a Chris Jones windfall over a Sneed re-signing. Despite Sneed enjoying a borderline dominant contract year, the Chiefs were unable to land too much. The prospect of a team then needing to extend the former fourth-round pick at a high rate dented the trade value, though the team did ultimately collect a Day 2 pick for a player it counted on as a starter during both Super Bowl-winning seasons.

The report of the trade being finalized came shortly after a separate assessment indicating the Titans had cooled on Sneed. Tennessee was indeed one of the initial suitors, being aggressive here despite having given Chidobe Awuzie a hefty contract two weeks earlier. The Sneed deal came after the Titans had met with Tre’Davious White, who ended up with the Rams. The Titans’ early-round CB investments under Robinson either left in free agency after inconsistent tenures (Adoree’ Jackson, Kristian Fulton) or have seen injuries harpoon their careers (Caleb Farley). Carthon decided to start fresh, adding two new boundary starters in March.

One of the Chiefs’ run of CB discoveries under Steve Spagnuolo, Sneed allowed just a 51% completion rate as the closest defender (at 4.8 yards per target) and a 56.2 passer rating. The Louisiana Tech alum did not yield a touchdown last season, playing an elite level for a Chiefs team suddenly unable to rely on its star-studded offense. Sneed’s advanced coverage numbers were not as flashy during his 2021 and ’22 starter slates, but he might be the top CB find during the Chiefs’ Reid era.

The Titans rewarded the 27-year-old defender with the highest guarantee at signing among corners. Sneed’s guarantee checks in $7MM north of the next-closest CB, but his AAV ($19.1MM) sits eighth. Sneed did well to secure guarantees into Year 3, which will make it difficult for the Titans to get off this contract — should the versatile DB not pan out in Nashville — until 2027. With experience outside and in the slot, Sneed gives the Titans options. Sneed will probably stick on the boundary considering the season he just put together in that role, with former second-rounder Roger McCreary still in place in the slot.

Free agency additions:

Knowing he had a rookie-scale QB contract to build around, Carthon proceeded to increase the talent level — no matter the cost — by adding the top players at multiple positions. Overpays may well be present among this class, but the Titans had seen many of their starters become unreliable in recent years — due largely to injuries. Although Levis is far from a sure thing, the Titans’ free agency plan is dependent on the rookie making strides and this contract complementing FAs’ guaranteed salaries over the next two years.

Ridley was not the first of the free agents to sign, but his contract generated the most attention. Lurking as a Jaguars-Patriots duel formed for the former first-rounder’s services, the Titans came in with a deal that surprised many. With Mike Evans re-signing with the Buccaneers before free agency and the Colts tagging Michael Pittman Jr., WR-needy teams spent. The Gabe Davis and Darnell Mooney $13MM-per-year contracts illustrate that.

The Titans were determined to pay up for a more proven commodity, though Ridley’s age and inconsistent past somewhat undercuts his two 1,000-yard seasons. That did not end up mattering in this market; Ridley secured the fourth-most guaranteed money at signing among WRs.

Leaving the Falcons for mental health reasons early during the 2021 season, Ridley then incurred a full-season gambling suspension. This drained a chunk of his prime, and although he has only finished four NFL seasons, the 2018 first-rounder will turn 30 this year. The Titans only guaranteed two of Ridley’s base salaries, which will make a 2026 escape doable in the event this is indeed a regrettable overpay.

With DeAndre Hopkins again battling knee trouble, the Titans need Ridley to build on the 1,016-yard showing he delivered last season in Jacksonville. Ridley working out also would provide the Titans a bonus, as it cost the Jags third- and fifth-round picks to secure one season of the veteran wideout. For a Titans team having some experience with bad receiver decisions this decade (Julio Jones, A.J. Brown), this is certainly a gamble. But a case can also be made Ridley has room for growth after posting a 1,000-yard year following effectively two missed seasons.

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Offseason In Review: Jacksonville Jaguars

August 12th, 2024 at 9:59pm CST by Sam Robinson

Offseason optimism gave way to disappointment for the 2023 Jaguars, and coaching changes commenced. Though, the ’24 offseason turned into one centered on doubling down on the team’s core performers. Jacksonville set a franchise record with its Josh Hines-Allen extension and then broke it weeks later by re-upping Trevor Lawrence. Although the Jags may be at a crossroads, the payments they authorized point to a belief in the current direction.

After a late-season slide moved the Jags from first place in the AFC to 9-8 and watching the Texans now receive the offseason hype driven by a rookie-contract quarterback, Doug Pederson faces pressure in Year 3. While the former Super Bowl-winning HC elevated the team after the Urban Meyer disaster, he will need to restore the momentum the 2022 season’s second half brought.

Extensions and restructures:

The Jags have not won 10 games in a season since 2017. Prior to that, the last such instance came in 2007. As such, they have not assembled a core worthy of extensive extension rumors in a while. That changed this offseason, with a franchise tag coming out for Hines-Allen and Lawrence talks beginning in February. While the Jags did not discuss a Hines-Allen extension until he had played out his fifth-year option season, they followed the recent blueprint for first-round QBs and hammered out a deal with Lawrence before his fourth season. As a result, Lawrence joins Patrick Mahomes as the only NFLers signed into the 2030s.

Hines-Allen’s extension, agreed to in April, held the franchise record for a short time. Lawrence agreed to terms in June with a contract that looks less out of step following the subsequent Jordan Love and Tua Tagovailoa accords. Like the Packers and Dolphins, the Jaguars received no real discount and are betting Lawrence has more levels to unlock during his extension years.

The former No. 1 overall pick submitted inconsistency on his rookie contract, but flashes have emerged — most brightly during the 2022 stretch run that included a historic wild-card comeback win — to the point the Jags have more certainty in comparison to the Packers. But Lawrence must display notable growth if he is to live up to this record-tying contract.

The Jags matched Joe Burrow‘s $55MM AAV, though Lawrence’s deal checks in third among guarantees at signing ($142MM) and in total guarantees ($200MM). Love and Tagovailoa did not match the Jags QB here, but Jacksonville did better in terms of cost certainty by locking in its starter through 2030. Love and Tua, who were going into contract years, are signed through 2028. Lawrence followed Burrow and Justin Herbert as first-rounders with two years of control remaining to sign five-year extensions. This will allow the Jags a longer runway to defray their passer’s cap hits, making the deal more manageable and allowing for more action this offseason.

This is new territory for the franchise, which has seen a number of QB investments fail. Byron Leftwich never secured an extension, and Blaine Gabbert did not make it far into his rookie contract before being benched. Blake Bortles‘ exploits have been well chronicled here, and although the team authorized an $18MM-per-year deal shortly after the 2017 team’s journey to the AFC championship game, it bailed on the extension a year later to jump into an ill-advised Nick Foles free agency agreement. Lawrence arrived two years later and has yet to put it all together.

In terms of QBR, Lawrence has finished 28th, 17th and 17th from 2021-23. He memorably threw one touchdown pass from Halloween to New Year’s Day during a miserable 2021 rookie season, and the 2022 team started 3-7. The late-season surge that year generated 2023 hype, but Lawrence then sustained a litany of injuries — the last of those causing his first NFL absence — that impacted his play in a 14-interception season. While the Dolphins opted to wait until Tagovailoa’s fifth year for a larger sample size to form, the Jags moved full speed ahead with a pre-Year 4 re-up.

The Jags will bet on health and their new receiver investments boosting the fourth-year QB, whose contract contains three fully guaranteed years and most of the 2027 base salary guaranteed at signing. With Lawrence’s 2028 base salary and option bonus vesting one year early, the Jags are pot-committed for a lengthy period. This contract promises to make Lawrence at least the second-longest-tenured QB1 in team history. The franchise will eventually hope Lawrence surpasses Mark Brunell‘s nine-season tenure; this deal provides the runway.

Hines-Allen, who will separate himself from the Bills quarterback with an offseason name tweak, came through in a contract year with a franchise-record 17.5 sacks. This well-timed surge prompted a franchise tag and a commitment that makes the sixth-year edge rusher the second-highest-paid player at his position. Like Lawrence, the Jags have not seen Hines-Allen perform at a consistently high level; prior to 2023, he had not eclipsed 7.5 sacks in a season since his 2019 rookie year.

Resisting trade interest on the former top-10 pick prior to the 2022 deadline, the Pederson-Trent Baalke regime saw the Tom Coughlin-Dave Caldwell-era draftee spearhead the team’s pass rush last season. With Travon Walker not yet harnessing the skillset the Jags invested in atop the 2022 draft, Hines-Allen took over. He added 17 tackles for loss and two forced fumbles last season. The Jags based Hines-Allen’s extension on the terms the Giants authorized for trade pickup Brian Burns. Hines-Allen, 27, received $500K more guaranteed in total ($88MM) and $500K in additional guarantees at signing ($76.5MM).

It pays to deliver a breakthrough season at a premium position, and the Jags do have the advantage of Walker being tied to a rookie contract through 2025. Their ability to keep him at rookie terms through 2026 via the fifth-year option will be beneficial now that Hines-Allen is on a lucrative second contract.

Jacksonville was not through paying its cornerstone performers just yet. Despite the record-setting payouts to Hines-Allen and Lawrence, the team found the necessary space to pay its top cornerback. Campbell joined the Jags two rounds after Lawrence in 2021. While Meyer’s coaching stint was an unmitigated disaster, the team has made commitments to three of his draftees — counting Travis Etienne‘s fifth-year option. Campbell cashed in during an offseason in which the CB market settled a bit. No record-breaking deals occurred at the position, but Jacksonville’s top cover man followed Jaylon Johnson and L’Jarius Sneed in doing quite well in terms of contract structure.

Not extended after a franchise tag tag like the Bears and Titans corners, Campbell scored the seventh-highest CB contract ($19.13MM per year) to come in ahead of Johnson and Sneed. Campbell, 24, did receive slightly less guaranteed in total ($53.4MM) than the two tagged defenders, but he is in good position to earn every dollar. The team also agreed on a rolling guarantee structure with Campbell, who will see a 2026 option bonus become fully guaranteed in 2025 and more than half his 2027 base salary shift to a full guarantee by March 2026. This will provide security for the Georgia alum, who will see some new blood working alongside him this coming season.

Going into the final season of a three-year, $45MM deal, Oluokun took a pay cut — in terms of AAV — in exchange for security. The Jags gave the seventh-year tackling machine an additional $21.5MM fully guaranteed to drop his salary to $10MM per year. As the Jags cut three of the free agent defenders they signed under Baalke (Folorunso Fatukasi, Rayshawn Jenkins, Darious Williams), they prioritized the linebacker from the 2022 FA class.

Considering the production the 29-year-old defender has delivered (a staggering 549 tackles over the past three seasons), it was a bit odd he agreed to a reduction on his third contract. While the Jags had what turned out to be a momentous offseason on the contract front, they locked in the former Falcons starter at a favorable rate through 2027. This flew under the radar, and while the ILB market has taken a hit, the NFL’s 2021 and ’22 tackles leader passed on hitting free agency ahead of his age-30 season in 2025 to cash in with the Jags once again.

Free agency additions:

At wide receiver, this Jags offseason featured some moving parts. The team signed Davis when plans were in place to retain Calvin Ridley; the Davis deal also occurred with Zay Jones still on the roster. With both the 2023 regulars gone, the four-year Bills Stefon Diggs sidekick is now in place to try and expand the Jags’ long-range game. This had become a station-to-station offense, and the team’s free agency and draft efforts set out to adjust that.

Hyping up his own market, Davis (or a member of his camp) noted the former fourth-round pick paced the NFL in first-down rate, touchdown rate and average depth of target since 2020. Davis’ effort may have helped, as he secured a nice guarantee and AAV. The former fourth-round pick indeed excelled as a downfield option in Buffalo, though he undoubtedly benefited from defenses’ attention to Diggs and the talents of his quarterback. Josh Allen did find Davis consistently for scores, running that number to 27 in four seasons; that does not count the four-TD showing the 25-year-old weapon posted against the Chiefs in the 2021 divisional-round classic.

The Davis deal also emerged after the team showed interest in Mike Evans, but the career-long Buccaneer opted to stay in Tampa rather than test free agency. The player the Jags ended up with profiles as a boom-or-bust addition, but Davis should at least assist in spreading the field for underneath targets Christian Kirk and Evan Engram.

Not many players from Baalke’s 49ers teams remain in the NFL; Armstead, however, played a central role for a set of high-end San Francisco defenses during the ensuing Kyle Shanahan era. Offered a substantial pay cut by the 49ers, Armstead balked and found a healthy market. The Bills showed interest, and Texans HC DeMeco Ryans sought a reunion. Instead, Armstead opted to reunite with the GM who drafted him back in 2015.

Teaming with Nick Bosa to form perennially imposing 49ers defensive lines, Armstead started in two Super Bowls and four NFC championship games. He posted 10 sacks in 2019, DeForest Buckner‘s final San Francisco slate, and registered six in 2021. Over the past two seasons, however, injuries have hounded the stalwart D-lineman. Armstead is coming off offseason knee surgery, which still has him on the Jags’ active/PUP list. He hurt the same knee before the 2022 season, a campaign that featured eight missed games and a subsequent foot malady. Baalke’s big guarantee suggests a strong market formed, but the Jags winning these sweepstakes sets up a buyer-beware situation ahead of Armstead’s age-31 season.

Moving on from Williams and Jenkins, the Jags brought in replacements at midlevel prices. Although Darby debuted three years before Williams, he is a year younger (at 30). The CB’s health history adds to the uncertainty of this Baalke FA group.

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