HEADLINES

PFR Originals News & Rumors

Poll: Who Will Earn NFC’s No. 1 Seed?

December 15th, 2024 at 10:09pm CST by Adam La Rose

The final four weeks of the season will see a number of playoff spots decided, along with the top seed in each conference. While the Chiefs have a degree of breathing space for the No. 1 slot in the AFC, the lone first-round bye in the NFC could come down to the last slate of regular season contests.

The Lions have stood atop the conference for much of the season, something which comes as no surprise give the expectations the team faced entering the campaign. Given the strength of the NFC North, however, Detroit has not been able to generate a cushion in the standings. An 11-game winning streak placed the team at 12-1 on the year — prior to a Week 15 loss to the Bills — but plenty of work remains to secure the top seed.

The final stretch of the campaign will see the Lions host the Bills in a clash of the league’s two highest-scoring offenses. Detroit then has road contests against the Bears and 49ers, teams which are on track to fall short of the postseason. The regular season will conclude with the Lions and Vikings playing what could be a critical head-to-head matchup, although other results may have decided the No. 1 seed by that point.

Injuries on defense have led many to wonder if the Lions will be able to remain atop the conference but to date they have done so. Aidan Hutchinson will not be available down the stretch, but a return by the Super Bowl continues to be mentioned as a possibility. Before that hypothetical point, maintaining their run of success (which could include welcoming back other injured players) will be crucial in the Lions’ bid for the top seed.

The Eagles sat at 2-2 entering their bye week, leading to questions about their status as genuine Super Bowl contenders. The team has not lost since returning to action in Week 6, thanks in no small part to the performance of Saquon Barkley during his debut Philadelphia season. The former Giants Pro Bowler already holds the single-season franchise rushing record, and his 1,623 yards represent a career high while also leading the league. Remaining his production will be key for an offense which has not been consistent or efficient through the air for much of the campaign.

Of course, the Eagles’ strong play on the other side of the ball has played a central role in their 10-game winning streak and 12-2 record. Philadelphia leads the league in total defense and has allowed the second-fewest points per game (18), making Vic Fangio’s first season a stark contrast to where the unit sat late in the campaign in 2023. While the loss of Brandon Graham for the season represents a blow to the Eagles’ edge rush, the team could remain strong in that respect en route to (at least) the No. 1 spot in the NFC East standings.

Philadelphia’s remaining schedule includes a cross-state matchup with Pittsburgh, followed by a road matchup with the Commanders. While both of those teams figure to represent challenging opponents, the same cannot be said of the Cowboys and Giants. The Eagles will close out the season with home games against those divisional rivals, both of which are out of contention and missing several key players. A path exists for Philadelphia to make a late run past Detroit to secure the first-round bye.

If the Lions are to be unseated over the final month of the season, the Vikings could very well play a large role. The aforementioned Week 18 matchup represents Minnesota’s best opportunity to make up ground and in doing so claim the No. 1 seed or at least the top spot in the division (ensuring home-field advantage during the first two rounds of the playoffs). Over the next three weeks, the Vikings will host the Bears and Packers with a road game against the Seahawks in between.

That schedule certainly represents a challenge with respect to maintaining Minnesota’s current six-game winning streak, something which will likely be necessary if overtaking Detroit is to remain possible on the final day of the season. In any event, the 2024 campaign has exceeded expectation in the Vikings’ case, with the play of Sam Darnold being one of the league’s top storylines. The former No. 3 pick is on track to be the top quarterback in this offseason’s free agent class, and a lucrative deal from an outside suitor would come as no surprise.

Of course, Darnold’s strong performance is a testament to head coach Kevin O’Connell’s work. The latter has not discussed an extension to date, but a new deal could be coming his way in the near future, ensuring stability on the sidelines. The more immediate attention of O’Connell and his team, though, will be aimed at the pursuit of the No. 1 seed.

Of the three contenders for the NFC’s top spot, which will ultimately secure it? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and have your say in the comments section.

Injured Reserve Return Tracker

December 14th, 2024 at 9:49pm CST by Sam Robinson

This offseason brought a change in how teams could construct their 53-man rosters while retaining flexibility with injured players. Clubs were permitted to attach return designations to two players (in total) placed on IR or an NFI list before setting their initial rosters.

In prior years, anyone placed on IR before a team set its initial 53-man roster could not be activated in-season. All August 27 IR- or NFI-return designations, however, already count against teams’ regular-season limit of eight. This introduces more strategy for teams, who will be tasked with determining which players injured in-season will factor into activation puzzles as the year progresses.

All players designated for return on August 27 are eligible to be activated beginning in Week 5, though any player placed on IR after a team set its initial 53 has not been designated for return and therefore does not yet count toward a club’s eight-activation limit. Players who receive return designations after Week 5 also appear on this list.

Here is how teams’ activation puzzles look going into Week 16:

Arizona Cardinals

Designated for return:

Activated:

Activations remaining: 5

Atlanta Falcons

Designated for return from IR (August 27): 

Eligible for activation:

Activated:

Activations remaining: 3

Baltimore Ravens

Eligible for activation:

Activated: 

Activations remaining: 4

Buffalo Bills

Designated for return from IR (August 27):

Activated

Activations remaining: 2

Carolina Panthers

Activated:

Activations remaining: 0

Chicago Bears

Eligible for activation:

Activated:

Activations remaining: 4

Cincinnati Bengals

Activated: 

Activations remaining: 5

Cleveland Browns

Reverted to season-ending IR:

Eligible for activation:

Activated: 

Activations remaining: 1

Dallas Cowboys

Designated for return: 

Eligible for activation:

Activated:

Activations remaining: 4

Denver Broncos

Reverted to season-ending IR:

Eligible for activation:

Activated: 

Activations remaining: 3

Detroit Lions

Designated for return: 

Eligible for activation:

Activated:

Activations remaining: 4

Green Bay Packers

Designated for return: 

Eligible for activation:

Activated: 

Activations remaining: 6

Houston Texans

Eligible for activation:

Activated:

Activations remaining: 1

Indianapolis Colts

Designated for return from IR (August 27):

Designated for return: 

Activated:

Activations remaining: 2

Jacksonville Jaguars

Eligible for activation:

  • OL Cooper Hughes

Activated: 

Activations remaining: 3

Kansas City Chiefs

Eligible for activation:

Activated:

Activations remaining: 4

Las Vegas Raiders

Eligible for activation:

Activated:

Activations remaining: 5

Los Angeles Chargers

Eligible for activation:

Activated:

Activations remaining: 3

Los Angeles Rams

Reverted to season-ending IR:

  • G KT Leveston (practice window expired Dec. 11)

Eligible for activation:

Activated:

Activations remaining: 1

Miami Dolphins

Designated for return from reserve/NFI list:

Eligible for activation from IR:

Activated:

Activations remaining: 2

Minnesota Vikings

Designated for return from IR (August 27):

Eligible for activation:

Activated:

Activations remaining: 3

New England Patriots

Designated for return:

Eligible for activation:

Activated:

Activations remaining: 5

New Orleans Saints

Eligible for activation:

Activated:

Activations remaining: 2

New York Giants

Designated for return:

Eligible for activation:

Activated:

Activations remaining: 5

New York Jets

Designated for return from IR:

Eligible for activation:

Activated:

Activations remaining: 2

Philadelphia Eagles

Designated for return from IR (August 27):

Designated for return:

Eligible for activation:

Activated:

Activations remaining: 5

Pittsburgh Steelers

Designated for return from IR (August 27):

  • OL Dylan Cook (released Oct. 31)

Eligible for activation:

Activated: 

Activations remaining: 2

San Francisco 49ers

Reverted to season-ending IR: 

Eligible for activation:

Activated: 

Activations remaining: 3

Seattle Seahawks

Designated for return:

Eligible for activation:

Activated:

Activations remaining: 2

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Designated for return: 

Eligible for activation:

Activated: 

Activations remaining: 4

Tennessee Titans

Designated for return:

Eligible for activation:

Activated: 

Activations remaining: 6

Washington Commanders

Designated for return:

Eligible for activation:

Activated:

Activations remaining: 4

Extension Candidate: Brock Purdy

December 6th, 2024 at 10:30pm CST by Sam Robinson

Barely a month remains before the 49ers can begin extension talks with Brock Purdy, the Mr. Irrelevant find that helped bail the franchise out of the predicament the Trey Lance miss created. Purdy has lost two of his top four weapons, and he has picked up a shoulder injury. Though, San Francisco’s third-year starter has still accounted himself fairly well in this de facto platform year.

Purdy’s seventh-round contract runs through 2025, and the 49ers have the leverage of a potential 2026 franchise tag at their disposal. But the expectation has been for Purdy extension talks to begin soon. Where those go will be one of the 2025 offseason’s central storylines, as the 49ers — after Deebo Samuel‘s 2022 trade request, Nick Bosa‘s 2023 holdout and Brandon Aiyuk‘s rumor-flooded hold-in — are set to have another offseason dominated by a big-ticket contract.

The question that will define the 49ers’ offseason, as well as the organization’s longer-term outlook, centers around where these negotiations will end up. Dak Prescott used extraordinary leverage to drive the quarterback market to $60MM per year, representing a staggering increase based on where the NFL was just five years prior. It took 25 years for the QB market to balloon from $5MM AAV to $25MM AAV; it has since taken just six for it to climb from $30-$60MM per year. At some point, a team will pass on a monster QB payment. The 2024 offseason did not feature any such actions.

Despite neither Trevor Lawrence nor Jordan Love having established themselves as top-tier quarterbacks, each matched Joe Burrow‘s then-record $55MM AAV. Tua Tagovailoa‘s injury history and inconsistent first two seasons made him a curious extension candidate. Despite rumblings of the Dolphins being leery of paying the going rate, they ultimately did, authorizing a $53.1MM-per-year payday for their southpaw starter. It no longer requires sufficient credentials to earn a top-market QB contract. The leverage the position’s importance creates — amid the fear of starting over — drives these negotiations, putting Purdy in strong position.

Purdy, 25 this month, needed to beat out Nate Sudfeld for the 49ers’ third-string job during his first training camp. Lance’s subsequent ankle injury bumped him to the QB2 role, and San Francisco’s offense — to the surprise of most — did not slow down after Jimmy Garoppolo‘s foot fracture. Purdy proved competent and piloted the team to the 2022 NFC championship game. He then made it back by Week 1 after UCL rehab, during an offseason that ended with the 49ers admitting defeat on Lance, whom they traded to the Cowboys for a fourth-round pick.

Purdy took significant steps last season, throwing 31 touchdown passes in 16 games and becoming the first passer to start a full season and average 9.6 yards per attempt since the 1950s. He led the NFL in QBR and passer rating. The 49ers’ four-All-Pro skill-position cadre provided a considerable boost for the formerly unappealing prospect, but Purdy finished last season by going toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl LVIII. He has been at the wheel longer than Love and has offered more stability than Lawrence. That $55MM-per-year price, then, makes sense as a clear floor.

Of course, persistent Purdy skepticism has come from his place in Kyle Shanahan‘s scheme and whether he would be worth such a contract. After all, the team did find Purdy in Round 7. Wouldn’t it be within the realm of possibility for the franchise to consider cashing out via trade (at some point) and believing it could maximize another passer lacking elite skills? Then again, that is a dangerous game to play.

The 49ers being the team to strongly consider passing on authorizing such a contract should not be ruled out, seeing as Shanahan reached a Super Bowl with Garoppolo at the helm. The 49ers would also see their roster blueprint change wildly if/once they pay Purdy. How the team proceeds with its host of contract-year starters in 2025 — a group including Charvarius Ward, Dre Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufanga and Aaron Banks — may be an early tell on how it will proceed with Purdy, as paying the QB — even in the expected event of a backloaded structure that kept cap hits low early — would naturally lead to cost-cutting moves elsewhere on the roster.

Purdy sits seventh in QBR despite Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey missing most of the season. The Iowa State alum still ranks fourth in Y/A (8.4) and has delivered 275 rushing yards — far more than he offered in 16 games last year. He is on the cusp of receiving the biggest raise in NFL history, as the seventh-round deal averages $934K per annum. 49ers CEO Jed York pointed to the team already planning for a Purdy payday, and while rumblings about a Kirk Cousins trade serving as a potential fallback option (thus reuniting he and Shanahan, Washington’s OC at the time the veteran was drafted) have surfaced, nothing serious has come out regarding any real considerations of separating from Purdy.

With the exception of Prescott, Cousins and Lamar Jackson, high-end QB paydays in the fifth-year option era commence before or during the player’s contract year. QB tags are rare. The 49ers could keep Purdy at a $1.1MM base salary next season and prepare for a 2026 tag at roughly $45MM, but they then run the risk of the market rising down the road. It can also be argued the market might not change much in 2025, as the 2021 and ’22 draft classes have not brought extension candidates. Lawrence has already been paid, with the other four first-round QBs from 2021 not being in line for monster pacts. The 2022 early-round crop has been even worse, with Purdy the only extension candidate to come from that disappointing QB draft.

The NFL’s $50MM-per-year club expanded to nine this offseason, and Josh Allen will be a candidate to eclipse Prescott’s contract perhaps as early as 2025. The MVP frontrunner does not carry the contractual leverage Prescott did, in being tied to his $43MM-per-year accord through 2027, but the Bills will need to address this team-friendly deal at some point. Allen’s six-year deal is as close as any QB has come to accepting team-friendly terms in line with Mahomes’. The three-time Super Bowl MVP is still signed through 2031 at $45MM per, giving the Chiefs tremendous flexibility. But his peers have, as expected, still opted for shorter-term deals that would allow for more prime-years paydays.

Barring Purdy accepting Mahomes- or Allen-level terms, the 49ers will need to pay up and make sacrifices elsewhere. That would stand to impact their loaded (when healthy) roster. That will mark a significant change for the franchise, though the team already had Garoppolo on top-market (at the time) terms and still churned out winning squads. San Francisco’s Shanahan-era blueprints have come with and without a veteran-QB deal on the payroll.

Starting over at quarterback would represents a massive risk, and for a team that missed badly when trying to do so (Lance) earlier this decade, it might not be one to take. Purdy has proven effective in Shanahan’s offense, putting him on the cusp of the NFL’s latest quarterback megadeal. How it comes together will shape the market for future passers.

Given how disappointing most of the other arms from the 2021 and ’22 drafts have been, Purdy suddenly resides as the QB market’s centerpiece player for the 2025 offseason. While the 49ers are no strangers to contract drama, it currently appears more likely than not they will stay the course and not become the team that refuses to pay a passer the going rate. Purdy’s asking price topping Prescott’s may change that, but a deal between the Lawrence-Love level and where the Cowboys’ leverage-fueled QB raised the market is probably something the 49ers will need to stomach.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Russell Wilson

December 3rd, 2024 at 10:02pm CST by Adam La Rose

The Steelers opted for a complete overhaul of the quarterback position this offseason, signing Russell Wilson and trading for Justin Fields. Both passers are pending free agents, and it remains to be seen if each member of the pair will be retained for 2025.

In Wilson’s case, though, his time in the lineup has certainly strengthened his case for a new Pittsburgh deal. The former Seahawks Super Bowl winner endured an underwhelming two-year tenure with the Broncos, leading to his release this offseason (during which Denver took on a dead money charge of $85MM). The Steelers added him on a veteran minimum pact, positioning him to operate as a low-cost Kenny Pickett replacement.

Fields started the Steelers’ first six games while Wilson recovered from a calf injury. Once the latter was healthy, head coach Mike Tomlin made the unilateral decision to insert him into the starting lineup. Pittsburgh went 4-2 with Fields at the helm, but Wilson was seen as having a higher ceiling in the passing game in particular. That has proven to be true to date, as highlighted most recently by his 414-yard outing against the Bengals in Week 13.

Overall, Wilson has led the Steelers to a 5-1 record as a starter, posting a 10:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio along the way. His 104.3 passer rating is his highest since 2020, and maintaining his current level of play would help his value on a new Pittsburgh deal this offseason or one sending him to a new team. Retaining Wilson is a priority for Pittsburgh, but an agreement on that front will only be reached after the campaign.

In the event the 36-year-old does get the opportunity to test the market, he could face a wide range of offers. Executives who communicated with CBS Sports’ Jonathan Jones were split when polled about what a Wilson offer would look like this offseason. Projections in terms of annual average value ranged from roughly $10MM on the low end to $35MM on the high end. How he and the Steelers perform over the coming weeks will obviously be key in determining Wilson’s earning potential.

The top of the QB market has seen considerable growth in recent years, and Dak Prescott‘s latest Cowboys deal made him the first $60MM-per-year player in NFL history. Eight other passers are attached to a deal averaging at least $51MM per season, while six sit between $40MM and $46.1MM. Given his age, Wilson should be expected to check in at a tier below those markers, but the likes of Geno Smith (Seahawks) and Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers) have parlayed strong seasons into healthy veteran pacts in the middle class of established starters.

Mayfield played on a one-year, $4MM pact with Tampa Bay in 2023 before landing a three-year, $100MM contract this offseason. Wilson is not in an identical situation given his age and his Broncos compensation, but he too could turn an impressive showing on a new team into a medium-term commitment and a raise. With Wilson and Fields combining to account for only $4.44MM on Pittsburgh’s cap sheet this year, a notable spike in that figure should be in store if continuity is sought under center.

Sam Darnold took a one-year Vikings pact as a potential springboard to a lucrative deal elsewhere, and his success in Minnesota has him on track to be the top quarterback in the 2025 free agent market. Wilson could join him as an older option for teams not in position to add a first-round passer in the draft or those seeking a bridge starter to partner with a developmental QB. Fields could also represent an intriguing free agent candidate in the event he were to depart.

The Steelers have not managed to find a long-term Ben Roethlisberger replacement since his retirement, and Wilson will likely not serve in that capacity far beyond 2025 even if he is retained given where he is in his career. Still, he could be an intriguing free agent in the event the Steelers were to allow him to test the market.

2024 NFL Dead Money, By Team

November 27th, 2024 at 12:50pm CST by Sam Robinson

The Giants making the decision to waive Daniel Jones, rather than keep him around ahead of a potential 2025 post-June 1 cut designation, changed their dead money outlook for this year and next. Here is how their new total fits in with the rest of the teams’ numbers for dead money — cap space allocated to players no longer on the roster — entering the final third of the regular season. Numbers courtesy of OverTheCap.

  1. Denver Broncos: $85.21MM
  2. New York Giants: $79.57MM
  3. Minnesota Vikings: $69.83MM
  4. Buffalo Bills: $68.47MM
  5. Carolina Panthers: $68.28MM
  6. Green Bay Packers: $65.53MM
  7. Tennessee Titans: $62.89MM
  8. Philadelphia Eagles: $61.95MM
  9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: $60.64MM
  10. New Orleans Saints: $59.44MM
  11. New York Jets: $59.24MM
  12. Los Angeles Chargers: $58.62MM
  13. New England Patriots: $53.37MM
  14. Miami Dolphins: $52.28MM
  15. Seattle Seahawks: $52MM
  16. Jacksonville Jaguars: $51.2MM
  17. Las Vegas Raiders: $49.37MM
  18. Washington Commanders: $42.81MM
  19. Houston Texans: $39.28MM
  20. Cleveland Browns: $38.79MM
  21. Los Angeles Rams: $34.63MM
  22. Detroit Lions: $33.71MM
  23. Pittsburgh Steelers: $30.18MM
  24. Chicago Bears: $29.65MM
  25. Arizona Cardinals: $29.35MM
  26. San Francisco 49ers: $26.91MM
  27. Dallas Cowboys: $26.79MM
  28. Baltimore Ravens: $21.35MM
  29. Kansas City Chiefs: $12.65MM
  30. Indianapolis Colts: $11.8MM
  31. Atlanta Falcons: $11.55MM
  32. Cincinnati Bengals: $9.11MM

The Jones release moved more than $13MM of dead cap onto the Giants’ 2024 payroll. More significantly, the Giants granting Jones an early exit — after a contract-driven benching — will prevent the team from designating him a post-June 1 cut next year. The Giants will take on $22.2MM in dead money in 2025, rather than being able to split that bill over two offseasons. The team also took on more than $10MM in dead money this year due to the 2023 Leonard Williams trade.

This year’s most egregious dead money offender has been known for months. The Broncos’ contract-driven Russell Wilson benching last year preceded a historic release, which saddled the team with more than $83MM in total dead money. A small cap credit is set to come in 2025 (via Wilson’s veteran-minimum Pittsburgh pact), but for this year, $53MM in dead cap hit Denver’s payroll as a result of the the quarterback’s release.

The Broncos more than doubled the previous single-player dead money record, which the Falcons held ($40.5MM) for trading Matt Ryan), and they will be on the hook for the final $30MM-plus in 2025. Beyond Wilson, no other ex-Bronco counts more than $7.5MM in dead money. In terms of total dead cap, however, the Broncos barely check in north of the Buccaneers and Rams’ 2023 totals. Denver is trying to follow those teams’ lead in rallying back to make the playoffs despite nearly a third of its 2024 payroll tied up in dead cap.

Twenty-two players represent dead money for the Saints, who have seen their total updated since the Marshon Lattimore trade. Rather than restructure-crazed GM Mickey Loomis using the Lattimore contract once again to create cap space next year, the Saints will take on the highest non-QB dead money hit in NFL history. Lattimore counts $14MM in that category this year before the contract shifts to a whopping $31.66MM in dead cap on New Orleans’ 2025 payroll. Considering the Saints are again in their own sector for cap trouble next year ($62MM-plus over), the Lattimore trade will create some issues as the team attempts to rebound post-Dennis Allen.

Two 2023 restructures ballooned the Vikings’ figure toward $70MM. Void years on Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter‘s deals combined for more than $43MM in dead money. Minnesota also ate nearly $7MM from the void years on Marcus Davenport‘s one-year contract, while the release of 2022 first-rounder Lewis Cine (currently on the Bills’ practice squad) accounted for more than $5MM.

Free from the Tom Brady dead money that comprised a chunk of their 2023 cap, the Bucs still have eight-figure hits from the Carlton Davis trade and Mike Evans‘ previous contract voiding not long before the sides agreed on a new deal. Elsewhere in the NFC South, three of the players given multiyear deals in 2023 — Vonn Bell, Hayden Hurst, Bradley Bozeman — being moved off the roster in GM Dan Morgan‘s first offseason represent nearly half of Carolina’s dead cap.

 

Updated 2025 NFL Draft Order

November 25th, 2024 at 10:10pm CST by Adam La Rose

The Week 12 slate of games is in the books. For many teams, attention is increasingly turning toward the offseason with a playoff berth no longer in reach.

Plenty of time remains for the draft order to change over the coming months, and it will be interesting to see which teams wind up in position to add at the quarterback spot in particular. The crop of prospects for 2025 is not held in high regard after Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward, meaning the demand for potential franchise passers is set to outweigh demand at the top of the board. Of course, players like Sanders’ Colorado teammate Travis Hunter will be among the ones worth watching closely as well.

The Jets have moved on from head coach Robert Saleh and general manager Joe Douglas, inviting questions about a reset under center as well. Aaron Rodgers wants to play in 2025, but it remains to be seen how his relationship with the organization will take shape down the stretch and if a new regime will prefer to move on at the position. The Giants, meanwhile, confirmed they will be in the market for a new signal-caller with Daniel Jones no longer in the fold.

Teams such as the Raiders have long been mentioned as a team to watch regarding a rookie QB pursuit. Jayden Daniels was a target for head coach Antonio Pierce last spring, and it would come as no surprise if Vegas were to make a push for a long-term starting option this time around. Other franchises not on track to qualify for the playoffs figure to give the Raiders plenty of competition in that department, though.

For non-playoff teams, the draft order will be determined by the inverted 2024 standings — plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule — with playoff squads being slotted by their postseason outcome and regular-season record. Here is an updated look at the current draft order:

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars: 2-9
  2. New York Giants: 2-9
  3. Las Vegas Raiders: 2-9
  4. New England Patriots: 3-9
  5. Carolina Panthers: 3-8
  6. Tennessee Titans: 3-8
  7. New York Jets: 3-8
  8. Cleveland Browns: 3-8
  9. New Orleans Saints: 4-7
  10. Cincinnati Bengals: 4-7
  11. Dallas Cowboys: 4-7
  12. Chicago Bears: 4-7
  13. Indianapolis Colts: 5-7
  14. Miami Dolphins: 5-6
  15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 5-6
  16. Los Angeles Rams: 5-6
  17. San Francisco 49ers: 5-6
  18. Arizona Cardinals: 6-5
  19. Atlanta Falcons: 6-5
  20. Seattle Seahawks: 6-5
  21. Washington Commanders: 7-5
  22. Houston Texans: 7-5
  23. Denver Broncos: 7-5
  24. Los Angeles Chargers: 7-4
  25. Baltimore Ravens: 8-4
  26. Pittsburgh Steelers: 8-3
  27. Green Bay Packers: 8-3
  28. Minnesota Vikings: 9-2
  29. Philadelphia Eagles: 9-2
  30. Buffalo Bills: 9-2
  31. Kansas City Chiefs: 10-1
  32. Detroit Lions: 10-1

Poll: Who Will Secure AFC’s Third Wild-Card Spot?

November 22nd, 2024 at 10:30pm CST by Sam Robinson

Late-season collapses certainly occur, with injuries obviously playing key roles in contenders’ blueprints. As it stands now, however, the AFC playoff picture is top-heavy. It is quite possible the stretch run will feature division leaders jockeying for seeding and two wild-card teams hovering over the race for the bottom bracket slot.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Chargers a 94.7% chance to make the playoffs, with the AFC North holding a strong likelihood of producing a wild-card squad as well. Both the Steelers and Ravens’ chances sit north of 95%. Although the volume of sub-.500 AFC teams could drain drama from this year’s fight to wear white in Round 1, the conference does have a handful of teams on the fringe who appear poised for a battle to claim the No. 7 seed.

Six AFC teams have eight or nine losses entering Week 12. While the 2008 Chargers started 5-8 and erased a three-game division deficit with three to play, the odds are stacked against the conference’s bottom tier (Patriots, Jets, Browns, Jaguars, Titans, Raiders). This leaves four teams in between.

The Broncos have not made a postseason appearance since winning Super Bowl 50. Considering the Russell Wilson release brought a two-offseason dead money number unlike anything the NFL has seen, Denver snapping that drought this year was not expected. Wilson counts for $53MM on Denver’s 2024 payroll, with the club taking on the larger portion of the dead money this year ($30MM-plus is on the books for next year, as a small cap credit from the QB’s Steelers pact awaits). But Sean Payton‘s team is 6-5 and holds a, per FPI, 50.3% chance of making the playoffs.

Although the Broncos kept costs low and also moved on from Justin Simmons and Jerry Jeudy, they resisted Courtland Sutton trade offers — including a third-rounder from the 49ers in August — and assembled an interesting roster around No. 12 overall pick Bo Nix. The Oregon alum’s progress defines Denver’s season, as the team appears close to identifying a surefire long-term quarterback. The franchise has not seen a QB start more than four seasons since John Elway, amplifying the interest in Nix’s sudden entrance into the Offensive Rookie of the Year race, but Vance Joseph‘s defense has proven better than expected.

Extending Patrick Surtain in September and paying Jonathon Cooper just before trading Baron Browning, Denver sits third in scoring defense and third in yardage. The team leads the NFL with 39 sacks. This has given Nix important support during his maiden NFL voyage.

Defense has conversely burned the 4-7 Bengals, who are squandering MVP-caliber work from Joe Burrow. Back from a season-ending wrist injury, Burrow has thrown an NFL-most 27 touchdown passes (compared to four interceptions) and has done so despite franchise-tagged wideout Tee Higgins missing five games. The Bengals are not expected to pay Higgins, with a 2025 tag-and-trade perhaps all that is left on the contract front between the parties after no substantial talks have taken place since early 2023, but Ja’Marr Chase‘s extension price — a matter tabled to 2025 — will rise coming out of this season.

Chase’s 1,056 yards pace the NFL by more than 100. A defense that had been solid during the team’s 2021 and ’22 seasons has fallen off. Cincinnati augmented its defense by adding Sheldon Rankins and Geno Stone while reacquiring Vonn Bell, but Lou Anarumo‘s unit ranks 28th. FPI gives the Bengals a 14.8% chance to make the playoffs. While this is almost definitely the highest-ceiling team left on the AFC’s fringe, a team that entered the year with Super Bowl aspirations in the expected Burrow-Chase-Higgins trio’s final act together runs the risk of missing the postseason entirely.

Sitting at 4-6, the Dolphins carry a 13.6% qualification chance, per FPI. Mike McDaniel‘s team is here largely due to Tua Tagovailoa‘s concussion-driven IR stay; the Dolphins went 1-3 without their recently extended starter. Tagovailoa’s absence reduced an offense that had led the NFL in yardage last season to one of the league’s worst.

Even as Tagovailoa has returned, neither Tyreek Hill nor Jaylen Waddle has taken off. The Dolphins paid both this offseason, reworking Hill’s contract and extending Waddle in a deal that delivered the younger WR a better guarantee than Hill received via his 2022 extension. Through 10 games, Waddle is at 404 yards. Hill, who topped 1,700 in each of his two full Dolphins slates, has accumulated just 523.

As Miami’s elite wideout tandem will need to heat up soon for the team to have a chance at a third straight playoff berth — something the club has not accomplished since a five-year run from 1997-2001 — its defense is again without Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb. Phillips suffered a season-ending knee injury, while Chubb has not recovered from the ACL tear that ended his 2023 season on New Year’s Eve. No Dolphin has more than four sacks or eight QB hits, with 38-year-old Calais Campbell — whom the Dolphins nearly traded back to the Ravens at the deadline — proving valuable in a four-sack start in his Miami return.

The Colts are 5-6, and FPI gives them the second-best odds (34.2%) of this bunch. Quarterback play, of course, has defined Indianapolis’ season. The team’s about-face with Anthony Richardson reminds came after a historically early benching involving a top-five pick, as the 2023 fourth overall choice had started only 10 games when benched.

Still, Richardson’s accuracy problems threaten to derail the Colts, who had gone to Joe Flacco in an attempt to better position themselves for a playoff push. After Flacco lost the ensuing two starts, Richardson is back. While the raw prospect looked better in his return start, he still carries a 48.5% completion rate. Only six QBs who have attempted at least 200 passes have finished south of 50% in a season this century.

GM Chris Ballard mostly just paid to keep his core together this offseason, though waiver claim Samuel Womack has helped a depleted boundary cornerback group. The Colts rank both 19th in scoring and points allowed, and while other components on this roster obviously matter, Richardson’s development still overshadows their season’s second half. That represents perhaps the biggest X-factor among this middle-class AFC glut.

Assuming the Chargers stay afloat and the Steelers and Ravens do not collapse, who do you think will claim the conference’s final spot in the seven-team field? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on the race in the comments section.

Examining Cowboys’ 2025 Financial Outlook

November 17th, 2024 at 10:15pm CST by Adam La Rose

With Dak Prescott officially out for the remainder of the season, the chances of a turnaround on the Cowboys’ part are bleak. Sitting at 3-6 on the year, Dallas’ struggles with him in the lineup have left the goal of a playoff berth a rather difficult one for his replacement(s) under center to achieve.

Given the Cowboys’ distance from contention in the NFC East and the unlikeliness of a wild-card berth, attention has for many shifted to the coming offseason. Like every other team, the spring will require a number of critical decisions on Dallas’ part as owner and general manager Jerry Jones attempts to keep all three members of the Prescott-CeeDee Lamb–Micah Parsons trio intact. As 2024 has illustrated, though, changes at a number of positions will be needed for a return to postseason contention to be possible.

An examination of Dallas’ salary cap and free agency situation reveals the number of key contributors who will need a new deal to remain with the franchise beyond 2024. Finding the funds to retain them while also managing Prescott and Lamb’s monster extensions signed before the start of this season and – after team and player put talks aside for the campaign – work out a second Parsons contract will be central in determining the Cowboys’ path for years to come.

A pair of franchise pillars headline Dallas’ upcoming free agent class. DeMarcus Lawrence and Zack Martin have combined for 13 Pro Bowls in their Cowboys careers, both of which date back to 2014. Each has played out multiple contracts past their respective rookie deals, and they could be in line for at least a short-term accord this spring. It remains to be seen if that will come from Dallas or if an unprecedented departure on the open market becomes possible.

Lawrence will be 33 at the start of the 2025 season, and age will obviously be a factor taken into consideration on the Cowboys’ part regarding upcoming negotiations. The former second-rounder previously played on a five-year, $105MM extension after receiving the franchise tag for the second time. That pact was followed by the three-year, $40MM one which is set to expire after this season.

The Boise State product was limited to only seven games in 2021, but he remained fully healthy for each of the following two seasons. Lawrence has been a starter when on the field this year, although a Lisfranc injury has kept him out of the lineup since September. With three sacks in four games in 2024, a repeat of his early-year production would help his market value (something which, of course, is also driven by his play against the run). Making another commitment to Lawrence would ensure stability along the edge but it would complicate the Cowboys’ other efforts with respect to Parsons in particular and their front seven in general.

Martin has also played on multiple veteran contracts, including a six-year, $84MM pact. Last offseason, the future Hall of Famer engaged in a training camp holdout and ultimately worked out a new agreement including a raise and signficant guarantees. A first-team All-Pro showing (the seventh of his career) justified that commitment on Dallas’ part, but it remains to be seen if another one will be in the picture.

In June, Martin said retirement will be a consideration after the 2024 campaign. He will be 34 at the start of next year should he elect to continue playing, and expectations will still be high if that winds up being the case. If the 2010s All-Decade team member were to hang up his cleats, Dallas would be forced to reset at the right guard spot just as the team did this past offseason after left tackle Tyron Smith departed. That position became an immediate draft priority (with Tyler Guyton being selected in the first round), and the same would be true along the interior if Martin needed to be replaced.

Given the nature of their respective contracts, void years are present for both Lawrence and Martin. If neither were to be retained – with no adjustments being made to their deals – they would account for a dead cap charge of over $24MM. That figure would kick in at the start of the 2025 league year in March, so re-signing one or both of them before that point would go a long way in determining Dallas’ outlook for the rest of the offseason.

A number of other position groups could see notable turnover shortly in the Cowboys’ case. That includes the quarterback spot; Prescott is under contract through 2028, but Cooper Rush and Trey Lance are both on track for free agency. The veteran is currently set to finish the year atop the depth chart, something which would leave Lance sidelined after that was also the case in 2023.

Dallas acquired Lance last offseason for a fourth-round pick, capital much lower in value than that which was invested in him by the 49ers. The former No. 3 selection did not see the field during his first year with his new team as Prescott remained healthy, but the door is now open to an audition period. Lance could have upside remaining given his age (24) and lack of regular season starts (four), although little time remains in the year for him to help his market value down the stretch. An inexpensive backup – from inside or outside the organization – will be required on Dallas’ part.

The team’s backfield figures to once again be a talking point this spring. The Cowboys have relied on Rico Dowdle as their lead back for the first time in his career this season. The former UDFA has already set a new personal best with 374 rushing yards, and his 4.5 yards per attempt average suggests he could be effective in a notable role beyond this season. Dowdle could make himself a priority for the Cowboys’ front office this offseason even if multiple outside running backs are targeted.

Provided that takes place through free agency or (as was anticipated last spring) the draft, Ezekiel Elliott faces an uncertain future. The former rushing champion returned to Dallas this offseason, but his regression in terms of efficiency has continued in 2024. Elliott has spoken with the organization about his usage this year, and an internal disciplinary measure resulted in him remaining away from the team from a road game earlier this month. A parting of ways could be mutually beneficial and pave the way for new backfield options.

A number of role players are also on track to hit the market in March. That includes Brandin Cooks, who scored eight touchdowns in his debut Cowboys campaign but he is currently on IR after being injured in September. 31 at the start of next season, Cooks is joined by Lamb as the only Dallas receiver not attached to a rookie contract. The trade acquisition of Jonathan Mingo provided the team with another young wideout option on the books beyond the current season, something which could lessen the need to retain Cooks as a vertical option in the passing game.

In the front seven, the likes of linebacker Eric Kendricks along with defensive tackles Osa Odighizuwa and Chauncey Golston are on expiring deals. The Cowboys enter Week 11 ranked 31st against the run, so a number of changes should be prioritized in the spring to improve in that respect. Significant turnover could therefore be on tap.

Looming over all the retain/replace decisions Dallas is set to face is the fact that Parsons is in need of a long-term extension. The 2021 Defensive Rookie of the Year’s financial future was less urgent than that of Prescott and Lamb this past offseason, and he made it clear to the team no in-season extension talks would take place in 2024. Banking on a jump in the cap ceiling and the potential for the edge market to see a spike driven by new deals for the likes of Myles Garrett and T.J. Watt, Parsons could very well attempt to become the league’s highest-paid defender this spring.

That title currently belongs to Nick Bosa at an annual average value of $34MM. Parsons – whose resumé includes three Pro Bowls and a pair of first-team All-Pro nods – will be hard-pressed to continue his trend of incrementally upping his sack total in 2024 given his missed time through injury. The 25-year-old’s leverage should nevertheless be sufficient to command a massive second contract, something which could leave Dallas as one of the few teams with two big-ticket edge rush deals on the books simultaneously (if Lawrence is re-signed).

March 2025 will mark Year 2 of Lamb’s accord, which calls for a $34.45MM cap hit. A restructure may be in order to lower that figure, but that will all-but certainly be necessary in Prescott’s case since he is on track to count for $89.9MM against Dallas’ cap next year. Creating immediate space will be key in generating flexibility for the 2025 offseason, one which figures to be rather busy for the Cowboys.

As things stand, Dallas, a team with only 39 players under contract for next year, is set to have roughly $9MM in effective 2025 cap space (h/t Over the Cap). That number will change considerably as the new league year approaches and the team attempts to meet several offseason goals with respect to roster alterations. With nine draft picks – including three in the top 75 – the Cowboys are set to have a rookie class which plays a key role at a number of positions. Before the draft takes place, though, impactful decisions on several financial fronts will need to be made.

Interest In 2026-27 QB Prospects Outshining 2025 NFL Draft

November 15th, 2024 at 8:09pm CST by Ely Allen

There will inevitably be some teams at the end of the 2024 NFL season that will be aching for a new quarterback for 2025. Rumors abound concerning the job security of Daniel Jones in New York, no one seems to be taking firm control of the starting job in Las Vegas, and uncertainty surrounds the recent investments in the position made in Indianapolis, Cleveland, Carolina, and Tennessee. The 2025 NFL Draft class may not offer enough answers for all these teams, so many are doing their research on the next couple of draft classes.

That doesn’t mean there are no options in 2025. Two passers seem to top the list for the upcoming draft: Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders and Miami’s Cam Ward. Sanders and his father (head coach and NFL legend Deion Sanders) have worked hard over the past two seasons to put the Buffaloes on track for a berth in the Big 12 title game and a chance at the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff. Not quite elite with his arm or his legs, Sanders succeeds on technique utilizing good timing and ball placement to lead his offense. Having only played under his father in college, scouts have concerns about Sanders’ maturity and leadership abilities.

Ward, who formerly declared for the 2024 NFL Draft before withdrawing to transfer from Washington State to Coral Gables, has earned his place in the first-round conversation. Starting as a zero-star recruit at Incarnate Ward at the FCS level, Ward found a home in Pullman before joining the Hurricanes. The 22-year-old has led the Canes to a 9-1 record, throwing for 348 yards and three touchdowns in the team’s only loss. His composure in the pocket and elite arm talent make him an enticing prospect but can lead him into making some questionable decisions. He’s an obvious contender for the Heisman trophy, but his draft stock is still far from solidified.

Behind Sanders and Ward, there’s a pretty significant drop off to players like LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, Alabama’s Jalen Milroe, Georgia’s Carson Beck, and Penn State’s Drew Allar. All four players hold mid-round intrigue, but there’s plenty of time for any of them to work their way into the first-round conversations late like we saw Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix do last year.

While a couple teams will be in a position to take a quarterback early in the 2025 draft, and some may decide that Sanders or Ward are a fit for their organization, others are already doing their homework on the next few classes of college passers. Two redshirt freshmen and one true freshman have scouts licking their chops before they’ve even reached draft eligibility.

In Austin, redshirt freshman Arch Manning has been quietly building a ton of anticipation from the bench. The grandson of former Saints quarterback Archie Manning and son of Peyton and Eli’s brother Cooper, Manning has waited patiently behind the Longhorns’ starting passer Quinn Ewers. Seeing time in six games in relief of Ewers in 2024, Manning has shined in spurts for Texas.

Another NFL legacy player, Dylan Raiola — son of long-time Lions center Dominic Raiola — started off his true freshman season for Nebraska hot before falling off in recent weeks. After drawing early comparisons to Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (mostly visually), Raiola came on strong in his collegiate start, throwing nine touchdowns to only two interceptions in his first five games. Since then, the Cornhuskers passer has cooled off quite a bit throwing only one touchdown to six picks.

Lastly, South Carolina has a redshirt freshman passer in LaNorris Sellers whose name is resounding in NFL scouting circles already. While his arm isn’t electric quite yet, Sellers has been effective en route to a 5-3 record as a starter. He also adds some dynamism with his legs averaging about 50 rushing yards per game on his way to four scores on the ground.

The talk for players like Manning, Raiola, and Sellers is obviously far too premature, as can be seen by Raiola’s midseason slump. The existence of such conversations, though, seems to underline the lack of excitement from the NFL in the 2025 draft class. Sanders and Ward are well on their way to hearing their names on the first night of the draft, but Nussmeier, Milroe, Beck, Allar, and others have some work ahead of them if they’re going to convince NFL squads to take a shot on them this offseason.

Examining Giants’ Daniel Jones Situation

November 12th, 2024 at 9:45pm CST by Sam Robinson

As you may have heard, the Giants pursued a quarterback upgrade this offseason. The team made Drake Maye its primary target, sending the Patriots a strong offer (Nos. 6 and 47, along with a 2025 first-round pick) for No. 3 overall. The Pats passed on Giants and Vikings offers for the pick and centered their rebuild around Maye. The Giants then passed on selecting J.J. McCarthy, Michael Penix Jr. or Bo Nix despite spending time with all three leading up to the draft.

This always left Daniel Jones in limbo, as he has underwhelmed — for the most part — since becoming Eli Manning‘s successor. Jones’ solid yet unspectacular 2022 notwithstanding, the Giants certainly have not seen him live up to the four-year, $160MM deal they authorized just before the March 2023 deadline to apply franchise tags — which led to Saquon Barkley‘s tag and eventual exit. The domino effect here both benefited the Eagles and likely has GM Joe Schoen on a hot seat — after the Jones-over-Barkley decision affected his 2024 plan as well — despite John Mara‘s reassurances.

[RELATED: GM Joe Schoen Expects To Be Back In 2025]

Mara gave Schoen and HC Brian Daboll endorsements for both the end of this season and into 2025, but with the Giants at 2-8 and having lost to a struggling Panthers team in Germany, it is fairly safe to assume both power brokers are far from assured to be back next year. Mara had expected a “big step forward” this season.

Mara has been a bit more patient with GMs compared to HCs, giving two-time Super Bowl winner Jerry Reese the chance to hire the head coach post-Tom Coughlin (Ben McAdoo) and allowing Dave Gettleman to select two HCs (Pat Shurmur, Joe Judge). Schoen being given a quick hook would be out of character, but Daboll receiving the boot after three years would not. Daboll is the only Giants HC to see a third season since Coughlin’s exit.

As it stands, the Giants have a decision to make on Jones; a benching is already on the table. Although no more fully guaranteed money remains on Jones’ contract following this season, sixth-year quarterback has a $23MM injury guarantee for 2025. That would kick in if Jones cannot pass a physical by the start of the 2025 league year in March. This has loomed over the Giants since their Maye trade effort failed. Daboll did not open up a competition this offseason, despite some comments from Seahawks GM John Schneider indicating that was on tap, and the New York Post’s Ryan Dunleavy notes no known first-team reps have gone to Drew Lock or Tommy DeVito this season. Jones’ contract situation points to that changing soon.

Since the 2011 draft changed NFL roster-building, Jones is an outlier. He is the only quarterback who remained a starter with the same team in a sixth season despite not averaging more than seven yards per attempt in any of his first five. The Giants passing on long-rumored target McCarthy at No. 6 gave Jones security, as Lock has not proven a threat. New York passing on McCarthy and other QBs at 6 led Malik Nabers to the Big Apple in hopes the LSU product would ignite Jones. While Nabers has certainly flashed, Jones has continued to struggle upon returning from his ACL tear. He exited a two-INT Carolina game ranked 27th in QBR and averaging just 6.1 yards per attempt.

It appears a 2025 Jones release — long viewed as likely — is close to a near-certainty. With Jones seeing his 2021 season end early due to a neck injury that required surgery and then suffering the ACL tear two years later (after missing 2023 games with more neck trouble), the Giants run the risk of another injury triggering those guarantees and hurting their ability to build a 2025 roster. A 2015 Robert Griffin III-style bubble-wrap scenario may be imminent.

If Jones is cut after passing a physical, it would cost the Giants $22.21MM in dead money — a figure that could be spread over two years, in a post-June 1 release scenario — to move on in 2025. A $23MM sum added to that would create more challenges for the team, which would then be responsible for the second-highest dead money figure — well, depending on what the Browns do with Deshaun Watson — in NFL history.

Lock stands as the more likely player to be given the reins in a Jarrett Stidham scenario, and a benching before the Giants’ Week 12 game would give the former Broncos starter and Seahawks backup a longer runway than each of Stidham’s contract-driven outings. Stidham owns this corner right now, having been promoted by both the Raiders and Broncos to protect injury guarantees in 2022 and ’23. Both AFC West teams cut their starters — Derek Carr, Russell Wilson — weeks after elevating Stidham. A Lock promotion would undoubtedly lead to the Jones book closing in New York by March.

The Giants gave Jones a much longer runway than similar passers have received, as recent years have shown it is not uncommon for top-10 QB picks to be benched by Year 2. The team pulling the plug during Year 6 appears all but certain, and a 2025 effort to acquire a replacement brings the Daboll-Schoen regime into focus. With Jones’ fate all but sealed, the more interesting component here will be whether Schoen will be allowed to acquire the QB’s replacement.

GMs rarely receive second chances, which would create a seminal “what if?” for the veteran exec due to him doubling down on Jones — whom Mara has strongly supported in past offseasons — rather than going all out to land a potential upgrade. Schoen is running out of time to make a sales pitch, and this Jones decision will certainly play into Mara’s long-term thinking as he determines if another housecleaning is necessary.

Load More Posts