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Offseason In Review: Atlanta Falcons

August 14th, 2017 at 9:29pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The Falcons suffered the most heartbreaking loss in Super Bowl history earlier this year, blowing a 28-3 lead to the Patriots after storming through the NFC bracket. Clearly, that defeat will stick with Atlanta and its fans for some time, but that shouldn’t take away from the excellent 2016 season the club posted. With most of a high-scoring offense (except for offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan) and a young, exciting defense returning, the Falcons’ offseason figured to be relatively quiet.

Notable signings:

Boasting one of the more complete rosters in the NFL, the Falcons didn’t have many areas of weakness to be addressed during the free agent period. Ameliorating their run defense was one such focal point, however, as Atlanta ranked 28th in DVOA against the run. In a market where Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams received more than $20MM in full guarantees on multi-year contracts, the Falcons declined to overpay and landed Dontari Poe on a one-year, $8MM deal.Dontari Poe (Vertical)

Poe certainly has his positive attributes: he’s young (26), durable (just two career missed games), athletic despite his 6’3″, 250-pound stature, and can rush the passer from the interior. But it’s unclear just how helpful Poe will be at stopping the run. Among 115 qualified interior defenders, Poe graded 87th in run defense, according to Pro Football Focus. The Chiefs, Poe’s former employer, ranked 30th in total adjusted line yards last season and dead last in yards middle of their defensive line. That’s not to place all the blame at Poe’s feet, but he played the most snaps of any Kansas City defensive lineman in 2016.

While the Poe signing was certainly defensible, Atlanta’s addition of former Cowboys defensive end Jack Crawford made little sense, at least at the required price. While he did an admirable job guiding Clarice Starling in her encounters with Hannibal Lecter, Crawford doesn’t provide much that the Falcons defensive line didn’t already have. He’s a remarkably similar player to incumbent options Adrian Clayborn and Courtney Upshaw, the latter of whom also re-signed with Atlanta this offseason. Crawford isn’t as talented as either of those players, however, and at a cost of $3.3MM annually, he’s earning a similar salary to that of Erik Walden, Connor Barwin, and Julius Peppers, all of whom I’d take over Crawford.

The Falcons didn’t need to add much to an offense that ranked first in DVOA last year, but they did bring back two key insurance pieces: quarterback Matt Schaub and tight end Levine Toilolo. Now in his second stint as a backup in Atlanta, Schaub attempted only three passes in relief of Matt Ryan. While he’s a capable reserve, there’s little question the Falcons’ season would go down in flames if Schaub is forced to step in for Ryan for any serious length of time. Toilolo, meanwhile, is the perfect No. 2 tight end, as he’s a willing blocker who also plays on special teams. In 2016, Toilolo played 55% of Atlanta’s offensive snaps while rookie Austin Hooper saw roughly 40% playtime. Expect those percentages to flip next season.

The only external additions made by the Falcons — wide receiver Andre Roberts and fullback Derrick Coleman — should slot in as replacements for two departed Atlanta free agents, Eric Weems and Patrick DiMarco. Roberts will likely become the primary return man for the Falcons in 2017, although his roster spot isn’t a given just yet, per Vaughn McClure of ESPN.com. Entering his eighth NFL campaign, Roberts handled 33 kickoffs and 20 punt returns for Detroit last season. Coleman, 26, was out of of the NFL in 2016 following an alleged hit-and-run, but he should see ample playing time next season, as DiMarco played the second-most offensive snaps of any fullback in the league a season ago.

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Offseason In Review: Green Bay Packers

August 10th, 2017 at 6:23pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The Packers have earned postseason berths in eight consecutive seasons, but they haven’t made a Super Bowl appearance since the 2010 campaign. While most NFL clubs would be satisfied with that record of sustained success, anything less than a championship is a disappointment for a team that boasts one of the league’s two best quarterbacks. Green Bay is hardly ever active during the free agent period, but the club’s front office had work to do — especially on the defensive side of the ball — this offseason.

Notable signings:

The Packers made Nick Perry the 28th overall selection in the 2012 draft, but after he started only 16 total games through his first four seasons in Green Bay, it was fair to label the USC Trojan a bust. He hit the open market in 2016 at the age of 25 after the Packers declined his fifth-year option, but after generating little interest as a free agent, Perry re-signed with Green Bay for just $5MM on a one-year contract.Nick Perry

Things changed in 2016: as Perry explained to Robert Mays of the Ringer, he began “expanding his vision” and acting “more aggressive in his initial movements,” and the results were almost immediate. Perry reached a career-high with 14 starts and played on nearly 60% of the Packers’ defensive snaps. In that time, he registered 11 sacks, 47 quarterback pressures, and 37 defensive stops, with that final total being good for ninth among edge defenders, per Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus. For his efforts, Perry was rewarded with a pact which ranks 10th among pass rushers in annual value and 15th in full guarantees.

While Perry’s return should help the Packers maintain a pass rush that ranked eighth in adjusted sack rate last season, new addition Ricky Jean-Francois will assist in the run game, where Green Bay finished 14th in DVOA. Jean-Francois, 30, is a classic Packers signing: he’s a not-too-flashy veteran who’d been cut by his previous team (the Redskins), meaning his signing won’t affect the 2018 compensatory formula. With Letroy Guion now off the roster, and rookie defensive lineman Montravius Adams expected to miss time, Jean-Francois — whom Green Bay had reportedly been interested in for years — should see ample playing time.

Fixing the front seven wasn’t the main concern for the Packers this offseason, however, as the team’s secondary was its primary area of weakness in 2016. Green Bay ranked 23rd in pass defense DVOA, per Football Outsiders, and finished 26th, 26th, and 28th, against opposing No. 1, No. 2, and No. 3 wide receivers. To address their defensive backfield, the Packers brought back a familiar face, signing Davon House — who spent 2011-14 in Green Bay — to a one-year deal. House lost his starting role with the Jaguars a season ago, but he’s now back with defensive coordinator Dom Capers, under whom House played well during his prior Packers stint. The early reviews on the 28-year-old have been positive, and it won’t be surprising if he’s a starting corner in Week 1.

On offense, Green Bay signed veteran right guard Jahri Evans, who will be entering his 12th NFL season. Now 33 years old, Evans has been extremely durable throughout his career, as he’s missed only seven total games. 2016 will mark his first campaign as a non-Saint, but Evans should immediately slide into the right guard vacancy created by T.J. Lang‘s free agent defection. While Evans isn’t the All Pro lineman he was in the latter portion of the 2000s, he’s still an above-average guard: last year, Evans graded as the league’s No. 33 guard among 75 qualifiers, according to Pro Football Focus.Martellus Bennett

The Packers double-dipped at tight end, agreeing to multi-year contracts with both Martellus Bennett and Lance Kendricks. While both are assured of roster spots, Bennett will undoubtedly play more snaps, as he’s arguably the best tight end Aaron Rodgers have ever played with. Catching passes from Tom Brady in 2016, Bennett managed 73 receptions for 701 yards and seven touchdowns while finishing fifth among NFL tight ends in yards per target. Bennett posted those totals while dealing a myriad of injuries, so if he’s able to stay healthy during the upcoming season, he could reach or surpass career-highs in several statistical categories.

Kendricks, meanwhile, will allow the Packers to run two-tight end sets, something they did on only 9% of plays a season ago, per the Football Outsiders Almanac. The 29-year-old Kendricks has reportedly ingratiated himself in Green Bay, as he’s already running ahead of fellow tight end Richard Rodgers in some offensive packages, as Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com writes. Despite playing on one of the league’s worst offense last season, Kendricks posted a career-high 50 receptions, but still earned atrocious blocking grades from PFF.

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Offseason In Review: Oakland Raiders

August 7th, 2017 at 4:32pm CST by Sam Robinson

After more than a decade as a bottom-tier franchise, the Raiders broke out last season and are suddenly the favorites to win their first AFC West title in 15 years. The team added a few veterans that figure to help an already potent offense and, understandably, devoted its draft to defense.

The Raiders also took care of cornerstones from the much-praised 2014 draft via extensions. However, all of this optimism comes against what could be a strange backdrop — especially for a Super Bowl contender. The Raiders’ decision to move to Las Vegas, eventually, will make Oakland Coliseum games interesting this season.

While the Raiders have yet to prove they can win the big games necessary to contend with the Patriots, they may have as good of a chance as anyone to topple the defending champions based on their roster construction. And they should be poised to be a top-tier AFC contender for the foreseeable future.

Notable signings:

Somewhat interestingly, Oakland chose to address its stronger unit in free agency while leaving its defense largely unchanged until the draft. Cook and Patterson could bring explosiveness the Raiders have not enjoyed at these positions in many years. While neither is a surefire bet for consistency, both figure to enhance the Raiders’ offensive capabilities.

The Raiders haven’t presented many imposing matchups from the tight end position in the modern era. Cook lost time to injury in 2016, but his late-season re-emergence coincided with some of the best play of Aaron Rodgers‘ career. Oakland acquiring Cook on a $5.3MM-per-year accord looks like a team-friendly deal.

The athletic tight end surpassed 600 yards in three seasons despite having suboptimal quarterbacks throwing to him. As the No. 3 option behind Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, the 30-year-old Cook will be in position to threaten defenses in a way Derek Carr‘s previous tight ends couldn’t. This acquisition will help compensate for the Raiders’ lack of a steady No. 3 wideout.

Oakland’s Patterson signing stands to benefit the offense more so from a field-position standpoint. A two-time All-Pro kick returner with the Vikings, Patterson did not become what Minnesota’s brass envisioned as a receiver. While a potentially dangerous gadget player — especially on an offense possessing the kind of weaponry Oakland’s does — Patterson is no lock to beat out incumbent Seth Roberts for the Raiders’ top slot job. Patterson’s prodigious return acumen will put the Raiders in better position to score, and like Cook, his skill set is one the team hasn’t enjoyed much lately.

Newhouse resides in a strong position to start. A Packers draft choice during Reggie McKenzie‘s Green Bay years, Newhouse has been given plenty of first-string chances — including 20 first-unit games with the Giants from 2015-16 — but has not distinguished himself much and figures to be the clear weak link on the Raiders’ starting line.

The Raiders did not attempt to upgrade much at backup quarterback, with Manuel having been one of the more disappointing first-round passers in years. Carr coming off a broken leg that torpedoed the Silver and Black’s season, the Raiders passing on more proven backups like Chase Daniel, Nick Foles or Ryan Fitzpatrick to sign Manuel for the league minimum is curious. Connor Cook continues to develop but wouldn’t be viewed as an above-average backup if he were to win the job, at least based on his emergency-circumstance work sample last season.

Jenkins would seemingly have the inside track to replace Malcolm Smith on the outside. He signed on a prove-it deal and given the Raiders’ lack of options opposite Bruce Irvin in their base sets, the former Dolphins starter should have a chance to showcase his abilities this season. But Jenkins has trended in the wrong direction since posting a 110-tackle 2014. Pro Football Focus tabbed him as one of the league’s worst linebackers last season. Also considering the Raiders’ gamble on unproven players in the middle, off-ball linebacker profiles as a risk since the team is without both of its nickel-package ‘backers from 2016.

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Offseason In Review: Washington Redskins

August 1st, 2017 at 8:10pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The Redskins narrowly missed earning a second consecutive postseason appearance in 2017, as a tie with the Bengals in London ended up costing Washington another playoff berth. That frustration seemed minor compared to the upheaval that began on the first day of free agency, when the Redskins fired general manager Scot McCloughan and began a summer-long saga of unfruitful negotiations with quarterback Kirk Cousins.

Notable signings:

Kirk Cousins has played the free agent game perfectly: assigned the franchise tag for two consecutive seasons, Cousins has now raked in nearly $44MM from 2016-17, and will earn another ~$34.48MM if the Redskins use the franchise tender again in 2018. Exerting all his leverage, Cousins rejected an offer from Washington that the team claims included $53MM in full guarantees, noting that he wanted more time to evaluate an organization that has seen considerable turnover both on the field and in the front office.Kirk Cousins (Vertical)

While Cousins clearly isn’t the league’s best quarterback, he’s going to be paid like it next season, either through another franchise tag, an extension with the Redskins, or a free agent deal with another club. Over the past two seasons, Cousins has completed 68.3% of his passes while averaging more than 4,500 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. That level of production will earn a quarterback a massive contract on the open market — especially given that Cousins’ former offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan, is now the head coach of a quarterback-needy 49ers club — and Cousins will easily clear the $27MM per year mark if he reaches unfettered free agency.

Cousins will be throwing to a new group of wideouts that includes former Brown Terrelle Pryor, whom the Redskins landed on one of the best value free agent signings of 2017. Pryor is only 28 years old, and posted 77 receptions, 1,007 yards and four touchdowns in his first season as a wide receiver. Given that he was a quarterback until 2016, many clubs seemed reticent to invest in Pryor despite his excellent statistics, but Washington took the plunge. It’s a worthwhile risk, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Redskins attempt to extend Pryor in-season if he continues his run of receiving success.

While receiver Brian Quick may not even make Washington’s final roster, veteran tight end Vernon Davis could play a key role for the club after re-signing on a three-year pact. Starting tight end Jordan Reed has had difficulty staying healthy during his four-year career (four missed games last season), and has already been placed on active/PUP with a toe issue. Davis, who looked finished in Denver two years ago, put up 44 receptions for more than 500 yards in his first season as a Redskin. While he still can’t block (bottom-10 among tight ends in the run game, per Pro Football Focus), Davis is a serviceable starter if Reed is sidelined again.

On defense, the Redskins sought to beef up a defensive line that ranked just 27th against the run, according to Football Outsiders‘ adjusted line yards metric. While Stacy McGee and Terrell McClain should do just that along Washington’s front, both signed contracts that can be escaped relatively easily. McClain, notably, is two years older than McGee, but received a larger guarantee, a larger signing bonus, and a longer contract than the former Raider. While both interior defenders will see time up front on a rotational basis, both players could see their deals effectively turn into effective one-year pacts.Zach Brown (vertical)

At the second level, Washington made an addition that rivals its signing of Pryor in terms of value, inking linebacker Zach Brown to a one-year deal. Finally utilizing the speed and athleticism that made him a second-round pick in 2012, Brown played 91.2% of Buffalo’s defensive snaps a year ago while posting 149 tackles, four sacks, and one interception. That performance earned Brown second-team All Pro honors, but his market never developed, as interest from the Raiders, Dolphins, Colts, and incumbent Bills never materialized into a deal. Landing a linebacker of Brown’s caliber for just $2.3MM is an absolute steal.

Like Brown, safety D.J. Swearinger is a former second-round draft choice who never put it all together until 2016, when he started 12 games for Arizona and graded as the NFL’s No. 9 safety, per PFF. Swearinger, who is already drawing praise for his work in Washington, is expected to line up next to Su’a Cravens (yet another ex-second-rounder) in the Redskins’ secondary. The Redskins ranked 25th in DVOA against tight ends last season, so the club is hoping Swearinger can help cover the middle of the field.

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Offseason In Review: Indianapolis Colts

July 29th, 2017 at 5:27pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The Colts limped to an 8-8 record for the consecutive year, as even an excellent campaign from quarterback Andrew Luck couldn’t overcome the club’s poor defense. With a new general manager installed in January, Indianapolis had several areas of focus to address during the offseason.

Notable signings:

The Colts arguably had the worst defensive depth chart in the NFL heading into the 2017 offseason, meaning general manager Chris Ballard & Co. had quite a bit of work to do on that side of the ball. Indianapolis’ front office made several smart value signings, including that of former Giant Johnathan Hankins, who waited out the market with the hope of landing a hefty contract. Ultimately, the Colts landed Hankins for only $9MM annually, a salary which ranks just 21st among interior defensive linemen.Johnathan Hankins (Vertical)

Hankins posted the worst season of his career in 2017, grading as the league’s No. 59 interior defender, according to Pro Football Focus, which handed Hankins extremely poor marks as a pass-rusher. But there are reasons to be optimistic about Hankins in Indy, and chief among them is his age. Despite having already played four NFL seasons, Hankins is only entering his age-25 campaign, so improvement isn’t out of the question. Additionally, Hankins will move to nose tackle with the Colts after playing three-technique in New York thanks to the presence of Damon Harrison. Shifting to a nose shade should aid Hankins’ play, as he’s always been more productive when playing over a center.

Indianapolis didn’t stop after adding Hankins, as the club inked two pass-rushers in the form of John Simon and Jabaal Sheard. Neither player is a superstar, but both are competent outside linebackers with experience in 3-4 schemes. Simon and Sheard are both solid against the run, as well, and should help improve a Colts run defense that ranked dead last in DVOA a year ago. Given that both Simon and Sheard are now transitioning from part-time roles to full-time jobs, it wouldn’t be a surprise if at least one of them reaches a double-digit sack total in 2017.

While most of the Colts’ defensive signings came along the front seven (which, despite the additions, PFF still ranks as the the No. 31 front in the NFL), the team did re-sign one of its own in the secondary, coming to terms with defensive back Darius Butler on a one-year pact. Butler, 31, put up arguably the best campaign of his eight-year career in 2016, and entered the free agent market with the intent of shifting from cornerback to safety. While it’s unclear exactly what role he’ll play for the Colts, Butler looks poised to fill a jack-of-all-trades position, roving between slot corner and safety, especially while Clayton Geathers is on reserve/PUP.

Hankins, Simon, Sheard, and Butler represented the most high-profile Colts signings/re-signings on defense, but Indianapolis also threw a limited amount of guarantees against the wall to bring in a number of defensive players. Sean Spence will likely start at inside linebacker, but Barkevious Mingo, Jon Bostic, Margus Hunt, and Al Woods were all brought in to add depth and perhaps play special teams. The total amount of guaranteed money spent on those players is $2.5MM, so it’s a small investment in order to ensure the club won’t be completely bereft of help if and when injuries strike. After years of fielding a top-heavy roster, the Colts are finally prioritizing depth throughout the squad.Jack Doyle (Vertical)

On offense, Indianapolis’ primary move was re-signing Jack Doyle, who is now the club’s unquestioned No. 1 tight end following the trade of Dwayne Allen to the Patriots. Doyle, a former undrafted free agent, had never topped 22 targets prior to the 2016 season, but broke out during his fourth NFL campaign, managing 59 receptions for 75 targets for 584 yards and five touchdowns. With Allen out of the picture, it’s conceivable that Doyle — who ranked ninth in DYAR and 10th in DVOA, both courtesy of Football Outsiders — could play an even larger role in the season to come. Doyle isn’t a superb blocker (23rd in the run game, per PFF), meaning free agent signee Brandon Williams could see playing time as an in-line tight end.

Former Raven Kamar Aiken could possibly serve as the Colts’ No. 2 wide receiver or fall as far as fourth on the depth chart, and training camp/the preseason will likely determine where exactly Aiken fits. Donte Moncrief, Indy’s presumptive second wideout, hasn’t been able to stay healthy, while 2015 first-round pick Phillip Dorsett has averaged just 26 receptions per season during his first two years in the league. Aiken plays special teams and received $2.5MM in guarantees, so he’ll make the roster, and he was reportedly told the Colts would stage an “open competition” at receiver this offseason.

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Offseason In Review: Dallas Cowboys

July 25th, 2017 at 6:51pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The Cowboys appeared doomed when Tony Romo suffered a back injury during Week 3 of the 2016 preseason, but fourth-round rookie quarterback Dak Prescott — combined with an excellent running game — led Dallas to an NFC-best 13-3 record and a Divisional Round appearance. With Romo retired, the Cowboys headed into the offseason with clear needs on defense that could be filled either through free agency or the draft.

Notable signings:

Although Terrance Williams posted the fewest receiving yards of his career in 2016, underlying metrics show that the 27-year-old actually produced an above-average season. Among wide receivers with at least 50 targets, Williams finished 11th with a 72.1% catch rate. The former third-round pick ranked 17th in Football Outsiders‘ DYAR (which measures total value) and fourth in DVOA (per-play value), and while run-blocking isn’t that important a skill for a wide receiver, Williams contributed in that realm of offense as well, finishing No. 22 in the run game, according to Pro Football Focus.Terrance Williams (Vertical)

But despite that production and his relative youth, Williams re-signed with the Cowboys on a deal that pays him just $4.25MM per season. Reports prior to free agency indicated Williams could score an annual salary in the $6-8MM range, but Williams instead landed a per annum average that’s below the likes of Travis Benjamin, Markus Wheaton, Rishard Matthews, and Jermaine Kearse. Clearly, soft factors could be at play here, as Williams indicated he took less money to stay in Dallas because of his comfort in the locker room, and there’s some incalculable benefit to playing on a young, contending team. But the Cowboys found a value in Williams, allowing them to spend cap space elsewhere.

Dallas made a concerted effort to retain the skill players on an offense that ranked third in DVOA a year ago, and that included re-signing veteran running back Darren McFadden to a cheap contract. McFadden, 29, was sidelined by injury for the majority of the 2016 campaign, but he’s still a high-quality backup who — along with Alfred Morris — will allow the Cowboys to tread water if and when Ezekiel Elliott is suspended. In 2015, McFadden, buoyed by the league’s best offensive line, topped 1,000 rushing yards for the second time in his career while averaging 4.6 yards per carry.

Kellen Moore was also re-signed to act as a reserve, but it’s very surprising that the Cowboys haven’t entered the free agent market to find a more experienced backup quarterback. While Dallas did express interest in Josh McCown, it hasn’t brought in another veteran to compete with Moore, and may be content to allow the former Boise State Bronco to be Dak Prescott‘s No. 2. Moore, who entered the league as an undrafted free agent in 2012, has only attempted 104 regular season passes in five NFL seasons. The best signal-callers remaining on the open market include Colin Kaepernick, Christian Ponder, Shaun Hill, and Robert Griffin III.

While the Cowboys brought back the majority of their offensive skill players, the club did sustain two losses along the offensive line in Ronald Leary (free agency) and Doug Free (retirement). Dallas plans to move La’el Collins to right tackle, meaning former first-round pick Jonathan Cooper will get the first crack at left guard. Despite being selected seventh overall in 2013, Cooper has never been a full-time starter through four NFL seasons. As such, it’s fair to wonder if Byron Bell, another free agent signee, will get a shot to overtake Cooper on the left side.Nolan Carroll

Dallas didn’t use the free agent period to overhaul a defensive unit that ranked 17th in DVOA last season, but it did bring Nolan Carroll aboard, signing the former Eagles corner to a three-year deal. Carroll is now on the wrong side of 30 and wasn’t effective in 2016 (No. 92 CB among 109 qualifiers, per PFF), so he won’t be the answer for a secondary that lost the majority of its starters. But the Cowboys can get out the Carroll deal after one season and $4MM, so it’s a worthwhile risk to add the veteran to a beleaguered defensive backfield.

Defensive tackle Stephen Paea is a fair bet to improve upon the 321 snaps he played for Cleveland last year, and the 29-year-old might be the best interior lineman on the Cowboys’ roster. Cedric Thornton, signed to a four-year deal last spring, seems to have been miscast as a 4-3 defensive tackle, while Maliek Collins struggled mightily during his 2016 rookie season. Paea, meanwhile, has been quietly effective for several years, and should help a front seven that Pro Football Focus ranks 26th heading into the regular season.

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Offseason In Review: Seattle Seahawks

July 22nd, 2017 at 5:40pm CST by Dallas Robinson

After finishing first in Football Outsiders‘ DVOA efficiency metric in each season from 2012-15, the Seahawks fell to ninth in 2016. The fact that that ranking was Seattle’s lowest since 2011 speaks to the consistency of the organization, especially at the top (John Schneider and Pete Carroll each finished among the NFL’s top three general managers and head coaches, respectively, in Patrick Daughtery of Rotoworld’s excellent leadership lists). The Seahawks have advanced to the divisional round of the playoffs in each of the past five campaigns, and have shown a remarkable ability to lock up core players in order to maintain their run of success.

That’s not to say Seattle didn’t have areas to address this offseason, however, so let’s take a look at how Seattle fared:

Notable signings:

As I noted when assessing the Seahawks’ most pressing needs heading into the offseason, Seattle’s offensive line could have been listed first, second, and third on a list of the club’s glaring weaknesses. After ranking 25th in adjusted sack rate and 26th in adjusted line yards in 2016, the Seahawks and general manager John Schneider addressed the problem in free agency — something they didn’t do a year ago — by adding former No. 2 overall pick Luke Joeckel on a one-year pact.Luke Joeckel

Joeckel received $8MM from Seattle, with $7MM of that total coming as a full guarantee. It’s an astonishing figure for a player who’s been considered a complete bust, and it’s hard to believe Joeckel was drawing enough interest to force the Seahawks to land at that number. Other offensive linemen earning ~$8MM include Marshal Yanda, Mike Iupati, Morgan Moses, and Brandon Brooks, all of whom are in a different stratosphere from Joeckel in terms of production. Former first-round selection D.J. Fluker scored only $3MM from the Giants on a single-season deal this spring, and Joeckel should have come in around the same amount.

Even more surprising is that Joeckel may not even play left tackle! The Seahawks are reportedly considering placing George Fant, who graded as Pro Football Focus‘ single-worst tackle in the NFL last season, on the blindside, meaning Joeckel would likely stick at guard, or perhaps even be forced to act as a reserve. Either way, Seattle’s financial commitment to Joeckel makes no sense if he’s not at least starting at left tackle, as his $8MM salary would make him the 11th-highest-paid guard in the league.

After securing the No. 2 pick in the 2013 draft in Joeckel, the Seahawks also brought in the third overall selection from that draft: defensive end Dion Jordan, who’s been an even larger disappointment during his NFL tenure than Joeckel. The 27-year-old Jordan hasn’t played in a game since December 2014, with PED-related suspensions and knee issues delaying his return to the field. Seattle’s gamble on Jordan is more palatable than its Joeckel bet, especially given that Jordan only inked a minimum salary deal with no guaranteed money. If Jordan does earn a roster spot and perform well, the Seahawks can control him through 2018 as a restricted free agent.

While the Joeckel and Jordan risks are based on performance concerns, the main uncertainly with cornerback DeShawn Shead is his health, as he’s coming off a torn ACL suffered in Week 15. After being non-tendered and then re-signed, Shead is expected to begin the season on the physically unable to perform list, as head coach Pete Carroll said in March he’d be “really surprised” if Shead was able to suit up for Week 1. A 15-game starter a season ago, Shead played more than 1,000 defensive snaps and graded as the league’s No. 37 corner, per PFF.

Joining Shead in the defensive backfield will be Bradley McDougald, an excellent value signing by the Seahawks at cost of only $1.8MM. McDougald, who started 31 games for the Buccaneers over the past two years, will serve as a third safety for Seattle, but could conceivably be forced into action based on injury questions with the Seahawks’ starts. Earl Thomas is expected to be ready for the season opener as he recovers from a broken leg, but complications could certainly arise. Kam Chancellor, meanwhile, is working his way back from multiple ankle surgeries and wasn’t yet at full speed as of March.

Seattle didn’t make many other notable additions on defense, although it did load up on linebackers/defensive backs with special teams experience. While the Seahawks graded among the top half of the league in special teams DVOA, their No. 13 ranking was a ten-spot drop from 2015. Perhaps with the intent of pushing that ranking back up, the Seahawks signed Terence Garvin, Michael Wilhoite, David Bass, Neiko Thorpe, and Arthur Brown, all of whom played on more than 45% of their respective team’s special teams snaps in 2016. Not every member of that cadre will end up making Seattle’s roster, but as a group, it’s a cheap investment with an eye towards special teams improvement.Eddie Lacy (Vertical)

The Seahawks’ most high-profile signing was former Packers running back Eddie Lacy, whom Seattle landed on a one-year contract worth $4.25MM. Lacy hasn’t posted a complete, healthy season since 2014, and given that his conditioning has been questioned, the Seahawks inserted weight clauses into Lacy’s deal. He passed his first weigh-in last month, earning $55K for tipping the scales below 250 pounds. Lacy, who is still only 26 years old, will join a Seattle backfield that also includes Thomas Rawls, C.J. Prosise, Alex Collins, and Mike Davis. Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times indicated last month that Lacy and Rawls will likely split basedown touches while Prosise handles passing game work.

After considering Colin Kaepernick, the Seahawks landed on Austin Davis as their free agent quarterback addition. Davis hasn’t played since 2015, and has only attempted only 378 career passes, but it’s not even clear that he’ll in fact be Russell Wilson‘s direct backup. Trevone Boykin, a 2016 undrafted free agent who served behind Wilson last year, has avoided jail time for at least one legal incident and isn’t expected to be suspended by the NFL. If he’s available, Boykin will likely relegate Davis to the No. 3 job (or off the roster).

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2017 NFL Offseason In Review Series

July 18th, 2017 at 8:30pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Over the last few weeks, Pro Football Rumors has been taking a closer look at the 2017 offseason on a team-by-team basis. Our Offseason In Review series focuses on free agent signings, trades, draft picks, and all the other moves made by clubs during the spring, breaking down what sort of impact those decisions will have going forward.

Just in case you missed our review for your favorite team, we’re rounding up all of our Offseason In Review pieces in this post. We have several more teams to examine before the regular season gets underway, so if your team isn’t linked below, be sure to keep a close eye on PFR — it’ll be coming soon.

Here are the links to our 2017 Offseason In Review pieces to date:

AFC East:

AFC North:

AFC South:

AFC West:

NFC East:

NFC North:

NFC South:

NFC West:

Offseason In Review: Detroit Lions

July 18th, 2017 at 5:49pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Although the Lions finished 9-7 and claimed a NFC Wild Card slot, underlying metrics show Detroit wasn’t as good as its record. Pro Football Reference calculates expected wins and losses based on points scored and points allowed, and the Lions were closer to a seven- or eight-win club based on those numbers. Detroit finished 27th in the NFL in DVOA, worse than clubs such as the Jaguars, Bears, and Chargers, none of whom came close to a postseason appearance.

Still, the Lions presumably still believe they’ll contend with the Packers and Vikings for the NFC North in 2017, and had several obvious areas of focus to attend to this offseason. Let’s take a look at how they did:

Notable signings:

The Lions’ offensive line wasn’t a success in 2016, as the unit ranked 31st in adjusted line yards and 18th in adjusted sack rate, so general manager Bob Quinn made upgrades to Detroit’s front five the focal point of the 2017 offseason. The first step was swapping out right tackle Riley Reiff for free agent Ricky Wagner, whom the Lions made the highest-paid right tackle in the NFL (not counting Lane Johnson, who was paid like the Eagles’ left tackle of the future). With Reiff in tow, Detroit averaged only 2.93 yards on rushes to the right side, according to Football Outsiders. Baltimore, Wagner’s former employer, averaged 4.62 running to the right, meaning improvement should be on the way in the Motor City.T.J. Lang (Vertical)

Wagner wasn’t the only addition to the right side of the Lions’ offensive line, however, as the team also signed T.J. Lang to replace Larry Warford at right guard. Not only did Detroit land one of the league’s best guards in Lang, but it stole him from a division rival, weakening the Packers’ line in the process. In order to ink Lang, who reportedly narrowed his free agent choices to Detroit, Green Bay, and Seattle, the Lions guaranteed two-thirds of his $29MM contract, an unprecedented total. Lang, 29, missed three games with injury last season and is now recovering from January hip surgery, but he should be available for training camp.

Darren Fells will be lining up next to Wagner and Lang on the Lions’ front five, and the veteran tight end will essentially act as a sixth offensive lineman on many plays. Fells, whom Detroit signed after he was non-tendered by the Cardinals, managed only 14 receptions a season ago, but uses his 6’7″, 280-pound size as one of the league’s best blocking tight ends, both in the run and pass game. His presence should allow the Lions to split Eric Ebron out wide in more creative formations.

Although Detroit has improved its blocking, that doesn’t mean free agent addition Matt Asiata will suddenly become more effective. Over the past three years, Asiata has been among the league’s most inefficient backs. Of the 49 running backs who have managed at least 250 carries since 2014, Matt Asiata ranks next-to-last with a 3.45 yards per carry average. Last season, Asiata placed in the bottom-10 among backs in both DVOA and DYAR, Football Outsiders’ efficiency metrics. Not guaranteed a roster spot, Asiata shouldn’t be part of Detroit’s Week 1 squad unless an injury strikes.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Lions surprisingly didn’t target any high-profile free agents after the team ranked dead last in defensive DVOA, instead opting to patch over the unit with low-cost additions. In that vein, Detroit signed defensive linemen Akeem Spence and Cornelius Washington, and it’s difficult to see either providing much of an impact next season. Spence, particularly, ranked 123rd of out of 125 qualified interior defenders, per Pro Football Focus, which gave Spence horrible marks against the run. Washington, on the other hand, earned good scores as a pass-rusher, meaning he’ll likely contribute in sub packages.Paul Worrilow

Both of Detroit’s linebacker signings — Paul Worrilow and Nick Bellore — have recent starting experience, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if the duo spends more time on special teams than as regular players on the Lions’ defense. Worrilow and Bellore each played more than 40% of their previous club’s special teams snaps, and Quinn has shown a willingness to pay for special teams aptitude, as evidenced by the signing of Johnson Bademosi last offseason and the extension of Don Carey in December. Detroit’s special teams unit finished sixth in DVOA in 2016 after ranking 13th and 31st in the two years prior.

After fielding the league’s worst pass defense last year, the Lions’ only free agent signing in the secondary was former first-round bust D.J. Hayden. Taking a chance on a former 12th overall selection is never the worst idea, but given Detroit’s immediate needs in the defensive backfield, the club should have gone after more known commodities. Jason McCourty, Davon House, and Morris Claiborne all signed for similar money as Hayden, and I’d take them all over the former Raider.

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Offseason In Review: Kansas City Chiefs

July 16th, 2017 at 8:00pm CST by Sam Robinson

Plenty changed in Kansas City since the Chiefs’ narrow divisional-round defeat. High-profile moves came after the Chiefs missed out on another opportunity to advance to an AFC championship game, a round the franchise hasn’t seen in 23 years.

The changes — severing ties with John Dorsey, cutting Jeremy Maclin, and drafting a first-round quarterback for the first time in 34 years — have the defending AFC West champions’ future in question. After being one of the top challengers for AFC supremacy this season, it’s tough to make a case the Chiefs are markedly improved for 2017.

Considering most of the moves the Chiefs made in previous offseasons were about immediate success, and they helped create a team on the rise over the past four years, the team took a bit of a different approach this offseason.

Notable signings:

During an offseason that became known more for the men the Chiefs parted with than those they acquired, Kansas City did sign Berry to an extension at long last. Berry was attached to an old-CBA rookie contract until 2016, and he played last season on the franchise tag. But the Chiefs’ indecision on Berry last summer ended up costing them financially. The sides reportedly never got close on a deal by July 2016, leading to the tag season, but said campaign ended up being Berry’s best.

He came up with game-saving turnovers in road wins in Atlanta and Charlotte and helped the Chiefs to their first division title in six years. And with the marketplace changing in between Berry negotiations, thanks to the Cardinals’ landmark deal for Tyrann Mathieu in August of last year, Berry’s camp — representing one of only two active three-time first-team All-Pro safeties — could talk from a greater position of strength. Berry is now the highest-paid safety at $13MM AAV, and his deal will take him well into his 30s. The Chiefs continued their Dorsey-era style of backloading contracts, with Berry’s 2017 cap number sitting at $5MM. That jumps to $13MM in 2018 and $16.5MM in ’19.

Kansas City’s only notable March outside acquisition came in Logan, who will be the rare Philadelphia-to-Kansas City transplant that did not have an Andy Reid connection. Logan joined the Eagles as a third-rounder in 2013, months after Reid headed for western Missouri. Logan will take over starting nose tackle duties from Dontari Poe and return to the 3-4 scheme he played in for three seasons in Philly. Kansas City has used a 3-4 scheme since 2009, but Philadelphia switched to a 4-3 look last season that had Logan slightly out of position.

The Chiefs were up against the cap entering free agency again, limiting their ability to spend on multiple players. But for a third straight year, the team did walk away with a proven starter acquired. They signed Maclin in 2015 and Mitchell Schwartz last year despite limited funds. But this offseason, not much else transpired for the team during free agency’s premier month.

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