Carolina Panthers News & Rumors

Panthers To Release TE Hayden Hurst

Hayden Hurst suffered a concussion that kept him from playing throughout the season’s second half. A report of the veteran tight end suffering post-traumatic amnesia surfaced.

Illustrating the importance of fully guaranteed money, Hurst is now set to be released. A year after signing Hurst to a three-year deal, the Panthers are moving on, according to The Athletic’s Joseph Person. The Panthers did give Hurst a chance to remain on the team at a reduced salary, but Person adds the former first-round pick declined the pay-cut option. The terms of the proposed pay reduction are not known.

Despite Dalton Schultz and Mike Gesicki being franchise-tagged in 2022, Hurst collected last year’s top free agent tight end contract — a three-year, $21.75MM deal. That came with $13MM fully guaranteed. No additional injury guarantees are included in Hurst’s deal, but that $13MM is certainly important in a transaction like this. Hurst missed last season’s final eight games due to the concussion he suffered against the Bears.

Because this transaction is being tabbed as one set to take place at the start of the 2024 league year, it is safe to assume Carolina will use a post-June 1 designation here. Even in that capacity, the team will only save $2.1MM while incurring more than $7MM in dead money. Hurst was set to make $5.75MM in 2024 base salary. He will be released before a $1.85MM roster bonus vests on March 16. Teams have two post-June 1 designations to use each year.

A former minor league baseball player, Hurst returned to football and crafted a first-round prospect resume at South Carolina. The Ravens took him in the 2018 first round, but after seeing third-round pick Mark Andrews become an immediate impact player, the team traded Hurst to the Falcons in 2020. Hurst and Kyle Pitts teamed up in 2021, but seeing as the Falcons used a No. 4 overall pick on Pitts, it did not make Hurst a priority. The Bengals signed Hurst to a one-year deal in 2022, and he served as an auxiliary Joe Burrow option on a team that came close to booking a second straight Super Bowl trip.

After Hurst’s father revealed the above-referenced post-traumatic amnesia diagnosis, the tight end described that label as worse than it sounded. Hurst tweeted last year he does not remember “up to 4 hours after the game (against the Bears).” The 30-year-old pass catcher was allowed to remain in the game following the hit, being placed in the protocol after the contest.

Part of a poor Panthers offense in 2023, Hurst does not stand to do too well on this year’s market. The $13MM guarantee number softens the blow. Hurst surpassed 25 receiving yards in just two games last season. He does have a 571-yard season (2020) on his resume and attracted the Panthers’ attention after a 414-yard Bengals campaign. Hurst joins Jonnu Smith, Noah Fant and Hunter Henry as the top names on this year’s market. The Texans just re-signed Schultz.

Panthers Place Franchise Tag On Brian Burns

With no long-term deal in sight, the Panthers will move forward with the expected decision on Brian Burns. The Pro Bowl edge rusher has been told he will receive the franchise tag, per Jordan Schultz of Bleacher Report. The team has since announced the move.

Burns has long been an obvious candidate for the tag, which will pay out $24MM guaranteed. That figure will eat into much of Carolina’s available cap space if he plays out the 2024 season on the tender, but questions about his future with the organization have persisted for some time now.

Contract talks have been on and off between the Panthers and the 25-year-old. Burns played on his $16MM fifth-year option in 2023, and the lack of a long-term pact kept him in trade talks. Carolina once again elected to keep him in the fold, but the passing of the deadline did not spur a new round of negotiations. With the parties still not on the verge of an agreement, talks were put on hold during last week’s Combine.

For that reason, many have pointed to a tag-and-trade being on the table as the Panthers look to avoid Burns departing in free agency in 2025. The Rams made an offer including two first-round picks in 2022, and teams have remained highly interested in the Florida State alum. Washington was among the suitors in the build-up to this year’s trade deadline, and those still in a favorable cap situation will no doubt show at least a degree of interest. With Burns requiring a lucrative pact upon arrival, however, it would come as a surprise if Carolina was able to secure a better draft haul than the previous Rams offer.

Seeing as the non-exclusive tag has been used, Burns will be eligible to negotiate a contract with outside suitors. An agreement which goes unmatched from the Panthers will result in two first-round picks as compensation, though a trade would allow an acquiring team to pay out a different price to Carolina. Burns and the Panthers will be able to negotiate a long-term deal as late as July 15 if no trade takes place.

Given where things stand on that front, though, considerable progress would need to be made for an agreement keeping him in Charlotte beyond 2024 to be hammered out. Burns has been connected to a higher asking price (roughly $30MM per season) than the team is willing to reach. Nick Bosa‘s historic 49ers extension carries an AAV of $34MM, which comfortably leads the pack. Carolina would likely add Burns to the list of eight edge rushers earning between $22MM and $28MM on their respective pacts if a multi-year deal were to come to fruition.

Burns posted double-digit sacks for the first time in his career in 2022, totaling 12.5. He followed that up with eight last season, bringing his career total to 46 in five years. Not known for his run defense, he will nevertheless be an attractive option for teams looking to make a pricey investment along the edge. The Panthers will need to weigh their options on the Burns front while also sorting out the futures of other key defenders such as Frankie Luvu and Derrick Brown.

Panthers To Move On From Donte Jackson

As cost-cutting season continues around the NFL, the Panthers are among the teams which will be shedding veteran contracts. Carolina is expected to trade or release cornerback Donte Jackson, ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports.

Jackson is due a $4MM roster bonus on March 16, meaning a decision one way or another will likely be made by that point. The Panthers will no doubt attempt to find a trade partner before proceeding with a release if necessary. In the latter case, the team will see $5.94MM in cap savings against $9.78MM in dead cap charges for 2024.

One year remains on Jackson’s pact, a three-year, $35.18MM deal signed after the expiration of his rookie contract. The former second-rounder has spent his entire six-year career in Carolina, but he was due to count $15.72MM against the cap in 2024. He was on the trade block in advance of this year’s deadline, but no takers emerged. Now, he will again be available.

Jackson was limited to nine games in 2022 due to an Achilles tear. He managed to recover in full, though, and he suited up for 16 contests in 2023. He totaled 53 tackles while remaining a full-time starter, although he was held without an interception for the first time in his career. The LSU alum also had a down year in coverage, allowing three touchdowns as the nearest defender and surrendering an opposing passer rating of 107.7.

Nevertheless, the LSU alum could have suitors as a free agent in particular. Jackson recorded 14 interceptions and 41 pass breakups across his first five seasons, and managing to play a full campaign in 2024 coming off the Achilles tear will help his value on the health front. It will be interesting to see if any suitors show a willingness to trade for him (and take on the remainder of his contract in doing so) to prevent him from reaching the open market.

Carolina – a team which entered Monday with roughly $35MM in cap space – will now need to find a new starting CB option to pair with Jaycee Horn. The Panthers, of course, also have a number of financial matters to work out with their incumbent defensive nucleus. Edge rusher Brian Burns is a pending free agent, as is hybrid linebacker Frankie Luvu. Defensive tackle Derrick Brown is also eligible for an extension, and talks on that front have begun. In any case, the team’s secondary will have a new look without Jackson in the fold any longer.

Panthers Pause Brian Burns Extension Talks

Brian Burns is an obvious franchise tag candidate in the event a long-term Panthers deal cannot be worked out. The latest development in this situation points further to the tag being necessary.

[RELATED: Panthers Discussing Derrick Brown Extension]

The Panthers informed Burns’ camp during the Combine that talks are on hold, Josina Anderson of CBS Sports reports. Negotiations on a sizable second contract have run hot and cold as a decision on a tag draws nearer. Burns was to no surprise on the radar of several teams – including the Commanders – in advance of the trade deadline. Even after it became clear he would not be on the move, the former first-rounder confirmed midseason extension talks were not taking place.

Mutual interest is known to exist between team and player in Burns’ case, but time is running out to come to terms on a mega-pact. The franchise tag deadline is March 5, and using it will create a window until mid-July to work out an agreement or a trade sending him to a new team. Carolina turned down an offer of two first-round picks from the Rams, as well as overtures from other suitors in the hopes of keeping the two-time Pro Bowler in the fold. General manager Dan Morgan recently all-but guaranteed the tag would be used if needed to avoid Burns reaching free agency.

The franchise tag would cost $24MM in the event the Florida State alum was classified as an outside linebacker or $21.32MM if designated a defensive end. Even if a compromise were worked out, questions would continue regarding Burns’ future in Carolina. He has posted 46 sacks in five seasons, and he earned $16MM on the fifth-year option last season. A new pact will check in at a much larger rate given his success as a sack artist, although limitations against the run could hinder his value on the open market.

Still, several suitors would no doubt be prepared to execute a tag-and-trade if Burns does indeed become available. Entering his age-26 season, he will be expected to continue producing at a high level in 2024 and beyond. Without a resumption of talks (and tangible progress being made in short order), however, it will remain up in the air whether or not Burns will be suiting up for the Panthers in the future.

Panthers Have Discussed Extending DT Derrick Brown

Panthers defensive tackle Derrick Brown took a couple of seasons to find his game in the NFL but showed enough in Year 3 to warrant the pickup of the fifth-year option of his rookie contract. A year later, and a second stellar season under his belt, Brown could be headed towards a new contract extension before he even gets the chance to play on that option.

After selecting Brown seventh overall out of Auburn in 2020, Carolina held high expectations for its new starting defensive tackle. Brown delivered on expectations that he would be disruptive, racking up eight tackles for loss in each of his first two season. He also showed a talented pass rushing ability, tallying five sacks and 21 quarterback hits in those first two years. He came under fire early in his career, though, for his struggles in run defense and tackling.

Brown’s third year in the league saw tremendous improvement. While he still had his struggles tackling, he heavily improved his run defense, helping him go from the 37th-best interior defender in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), to the seventh-best. In 2023, Brown put any questions of his tackling issues to rest. Not only did he lead the league in tackles made by a defensive tackle, but Brown also set the NFL record for total tackles in a single season by an interior defender with an astounding 103.

The man was a singular vacuum in the middle of the Panthers defense, and as a result, once again improved his standing, grading out as the fourth-best interior defender in the NFL this season, per PFF, trailing only Dexter Lawrence, Aaron Donald, and Quinnen Williams, three of the league’s highest-paid defensive tackles. Whenever extension talks occur, Brown and his representation, Drew Rosenhaus, will be sure to point out that all three of the above-mentioned players are making over $20MM per year.

Those extension talks do seem to be close at hand, according to Joe Person of The Athletic, who reports that the Panthers general manager Dan Morgan has been in touch with Rosenhaus. The team exercised the 25-year-old’s fifth-year option, allowing them ample time to work out a potential extension agreement. They even lucked out, as the lack of a Pro Bowl season up to that point only qualified Brown for the third tier of the fifth-year option structure, putting his fifth-year, fully-guaranteed salary at a rather manageable $11.67MM. Brown ended up finally earning that Pro Bowl honor this year.

Unfortunately, his Pro Bowl season came one year late. The Panthers may still pursue an extension, though, attempting to lock down Brown on a long-term, potentially team-friendly deal while avoiding any potential for a holdout. His fifth-year salary is set to be about half of what the annual average value would be on a new deal, but it’s all fully guaranteed and all hitting the salary cap. An extension could help lower that cap hit and potentially reward Brown with more guaranteed money in a different structure.

Carolina has some free agents to deal with this offseason like linebacker Frankie Luvu and star pass rusher Brian Burns, so more pressing matters may be at the top of the docket right now. Still, Brown is turning into one of the league’s best at his position, turning even his early-career weaknesses into strengths as he prepares to enter a contract year. Extending him before that point should be an offseason priority.

Panthers Would Consider Using Franchise Tag On Brian Burns

While the Panthers would prefer to sign Brian Burns to an extension, GM Dan Morgan told reporters that “all options are on the table” when it comes to retaining their star pass rusher, including the franchise tag. With the March 5 franchise tag deadline rapidly approaching, Morgan revealed that he’ll be meeting with Burns’ agent this week regarding a potential extension.

“We’ll have a little more clarity on the situation after that, but we’re working on it,” Morgan said (via Darin Gantt of the team’s website). “I think right now, all options are on the table. You know, what those options are, we’ll find out. I’ll have a little more clarity on that after I meet with the agent.”

The franchise tag for Burns would come in at $24MM for the 2024 campaign. While a hypothetical extension could produce a higher average annual value, the team would have more flexibility to lessen the impending cap hits. Still, the Panthers clearly don’t want Burns to walk away for nothing, and when asked pointedly if the Panthers would consider the franchise tag, the GM didn’t mince words.

“We would definitely use it if we had to use it, and you know, we love Brian,” Morgan continued. “Brian’s a Panther. Somebody that I know and that I’m close to, I played with his brother. So, I definitely love Brian. But all options are on the table for him.”

Burns has spent his entire career with the Panthers, earning Pro Bowl nods in both 2021 and 2022. From a counting-stats perspective, his 2023 numbers were down a bit; after averaging more than 10 sacks per season between 2020 and 2022, Burns finished with only eight sacks last year. He still finished the campaign with 16 tackles for loss and 18 QB hits, and Pro Football Focus still graded him as the 37th edge rusher among 112 qualifiers.

Nick Bosa currently paces all edge rushers with a $34MM AAV, and three other pass-rushers are making north of $25MM per season (T.J. Watt, Joey Bosa, and Myles Garrett). Burns is younger than those higher-paid counterparts, and while he may not receive the same total money or guarantees, he could push to be among the highest-paid edge rushers in terms of AAV.

We heard recently that the Commanders joined a number of teams in contacting Carolina about Burns’ availability leading up to this year’s trade deadline. While the pass-rusher would surely have a number of suitors in free agency, it sounds like he won’t even make it that far.

Jaguars Make Final Changes To 2024 Staff

The Jaguars were one of several teams that were forced to make adjustments to their coaching staff, most notably after parting ways with defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell and company. The new staff under Caldwell’s successor, former Falcons defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen, has been finalized, as have a few updates to the offensive side of the ball, as well.

On defense we were already aware of the hires of defensive backs coach Kris Richard and inside linebackers coach Matt House, as well as the retention of assistant defensive line coach Rory Segrest, outside linebackers coach Bill Shuey, and defensive quality control coach Patrick Reilly. We had originally reported that Cory Robinson would be joining the staff as the team’s cornerbacks coach, but the team’s update tells us that, more specifically, he will be a defensive assistant and cornerbacks coach.

To round out the new defensive staff, the team has hired Jeremy Garrett as their new defensive line coach, Michael Gray as assistant secondary coach and defensive analyst, and Mario Jeberaeel as assistant outside linebackers coach. Garrett replaces Brentson Bucker, who was fired alongside Caldwell. He has NFL experience with the Browns and most recently worked at the collegiate level with Auburn and Liberty. Gray and Jeberaeel both follow Nielsen from Atlanta. Gray joined the Falcons last year as a football analyst, while Jeberaeel came into the title of special projects: defense coach last season.

On the offensive side of the ball, Jacksonville announced the hires of running backs coach Jerry Mack and offensive quality control coach Jamel Mutunga, as well as the promotion of former offensive quality control coach Greg Austin to assistant offensive line coach. Mack replaces Bernie Parmalee, who took the same position with the Panthers after being fired alongside Caldwell. This will be Mack’s first NFL coaching gig after spending 20 years coaching at the collegiate level. Most recently, Mack coached a Volunteers team at Tennessee that finished top-12 in rushing yards per game twice in his three years.

Austin takes the position of Todd Washington, who also was let go with Parmalee and Caldwell. Mutunga takes his spot in quality control after serving as an offensive assistant with the Panthers last year. His first year of experience came in 2022, when he was the inaugural recipient of the Tony Dungy Diversity Coaching Fellowship in Indianapolis.

That sets the stage in Duval for the 2024 season. A few adjustments on offense and a changing of the guard on defense define the early portion of Jacksonville’s offseason. It will be worth watching to see if a new defensive staff can help a young Jaguars squad take the next step in the new league year.

2024 NFL Cap Space, By Team

The NFL provided clarity to its teams on Friday by setting the salary cap ceiling ($255.4MM). Franchise tag figures have been locked in as well, and clubs can now proceed with their offseason planning knowing exactly where they stand with respect to financial flexibility. Courtesy of Over the Cap, here is the current landscape in terms of salary cap space:

  1. Washington Commanders: $79.61MM
  2. Tennessee Titans: $78.66MM
  3. Chicago Bears: $78.34MM
  4. New England Patriots: $77.96MM
  5. Indianapolis Colts: $72.34MM
  6. Houston Texans: $67.58MM
  7. Detroit Lions: $57.61MM
  8. Arizona Cardinals: $51.1MM
  9. Cincinnati Bengals: $50.67MM
  10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: $43.68MM
  11. Los Angles Rams: $43.11MM
  12. Las Vegas Raiders: $42.94MM
  13. Minnesota Vikings: $35.81MM
  14. Carolina Panthers: $34.57MM
  15. Atlanta Falcons: $33MM
  16. New York Giants: $30.8MM
  17. Philadelphia Eagles: $27.35MM
  18. Jacksonville Jaguars: $24.68MM
  19. Kansas City Chiefs: $18.19MM
  20. Baltimore Ravens: $16.63MM
  21. Seattle Seahawks: $12.97MM
  22. New York Jets: $12.76MM
  23. Pittsburgh Steelers: $9MM
  24. Green Bay Packers: $2.3MM
  25. San Francisco 49ers: $5.07MM over the cap
  26. Cleveland Browns: $7.76MM over
  27. Dallas Cowboys: $9.86MM over
  28. Denver Broncos: $16.81MM over
  29. Los Angeles Chargers: $25.61MM over
  30. Miami Dolphins: $27.92MM over
  31. New Orleans Saints: $42.11MM over
  32. Buffalo Bills: $43.82MM over

All teams must be cap compliant by the start of the new league year, but it will of course be more than just those currently over the limit which will make cost-shedding moves in the near future. Cuts, restructures and extensions are available as tools to carve out space in advance of free agency. Several have already taken place around the league.

That includes the Dolphins’ release of defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah and the planned cut of Xavien Howard. The latter cannot be designated a post-June 1 release until free agency begins but once it happens, Miami will move much closer to cap compliance. The Saints have moved considerable commitments into the future via restructures (as usual), but more transactions on that front will be required even with the cap seeing an historic single-season jump.

The roughly $30MM spike from 2023 will provide unforeseen spending power for teams already set to lead the pack in cap space while also making the task of those at the bottom of the list easier. Spending more on backloaded contracts this offseason at the expense of future space obviously carries risk, however. Still, the news of a higher-than-expected ceiling will add further intrigue to each team’s financial planning.

With Dak Prescott and Deshaun Watson each set to carry record-breaking cap hits for 2024, the Cowboys and Browns will be among the teams most in need of working out a deal to lower those figures. In Dallas’ case in particular, an extension would provide immediate breathing room in addition to clarity on his future beyond the coming season. For Cleveland, Watson’s fully-guaranteed deal has already been restructured once and will need to be again to avoid consecutive years of a $64MM cap charge over its remaining term.

If the Commanders and Patriots add a quarterback with the second and third picks in this year’s draft, each team currently in the top six in space will enjoy the benefits of having a signal-caller on their rookie contracts. That would allow for an aggressive approach to free agency, although the Chiefs’ success after Patrick Mahomes signed (and re-worked) his monster extension has proven it is possible to win Super Bowl titles with a substantial QB investment on the books.

Commanders Pursued Brian Burns In 2023

Picking up draft capital in exchange for young edge rushers became one of the defining aspects of the 2023 Commanders’ season, which skidded off the rails following the trades of Montez Sweat and Chase Young. The team also looks to have been monitoring an edge player on another roster.

Washington joined a number of teams in contacting Carolina regarding Brian Burns‘ availability before the October 31 deadline, The Athletic’s Joseph Person notes (subscription required). The Panthers, as they have done at a few junctures over the past 14 months, squashed trade overtures for Burns.

The Jaguars, Falcons and Ravens inquired about Burns last year, with the Bears and 49ers — the teams that eventually landed the Commanders’ trade chips — also involved in the second deadline pursuit of the Panthers Pro Bowler. This was only the second-most notable deadline Burns pursuit, as the Rams’ two-first-rounder proposal will be difficult to beat. No team approached the Rams’ 2022 Burns offer last year. Though, it is certainly interesting the Commanders checked in.

With Josh Harris believed to be a central part of the course change, the Commanders made the surprising choice to trade both Young and Sweat at last year’s deadline. The new owner emphasized picking up draft assets, doing so before pushing out the team’s fourth-year HC/top decision-maker (Ron Rivera) after the trades helped drive the team to a 4-13 record and the No. 2 overall draft slot. For Washington to also be interested in Burns would seem to run counter to the newly established mission.

Then again, the organization’s Panthers ties could explain this effort. Rivera was in place as Carolina’s HC when Burns went off the 2019 draft board in the first round. Marty Hurney was as well, working in his second stint as Panthers GM when the team chose Burns 16th overall. Hurney worked under Rivera in Washington, serving as the team’s executive VP of player personnel previously. While Harris sacked Rivera, Hurney and former GM Martin Mayhew remain with the organization in different roles.

It would seem unlikely Harris would have signed off on a blockbuster Burns acquisition, but given the Panthers’ stance on the former Rivera/Hurney investment, it is a moot point anyway. In addition to turning down the aforementioned Rams offer, former Panthers GM Scott Fitterer refused to include Burns in the 2023 trade for the No. 1 overall pick. That led to D.J. Moore being sent to Chicago last March. The Burns trade developments have only emboldened the upper-crust sack artist on the contract front, and another chapter — this time involving new Panthers GM Dan Morgan — looks set to begin soon.

The Panthers remain likely to use their franchise tag on Burns, Person adds. The two-time Pro Bowler sought a $30MM-per-year deal during the 2023 offseason. At the time, that would have established a new position record. T.J. Watt held that distinction for two years, via his $28MM-AAV Steelers re-up, but Nick Bosa topped it on the $34MM-per-year accord the 49ers gave him in September. Burns has not proven to be in the Watt or Bosa class, but the Panthers have armed him with considerable leverage. Bosa’s extension will certainly impact the Panthers’ talks with Burns, which were effectively paused during the latter’s contract year.

Burns, who stands to be Carolina’s first tag recipient since Taylor Moton in 2021, said he wants to stay with the Panthers. But it will clearly be costly for the team to retain him. It will be interesting to see if Fitterer’s successor affects these talks. Though, Morgan was in place as Carolina’s assistant GM from 2021-23. A tag, which will cost approximately $22.7MM, will buy the Panthers more time. They would have until July 15 to extend Burns, though a trade can be worked out beyond that point.

2024 NFL Franchise Tag Candidates

A valuable tool for teams to keep top free agents off the market, the franchise tag has been in existence since 1993. This week brought the opening of the 2024 tag window. Clubs have until 3pm CT on March 5 to apply tags. As the Giants’ situation showed last year, most of the tag-related business comes near the close of this window. Teams will continue to work toward re-signing their respective tag candidates, thus preventing a lofty franchise tender from hitting their cap sheet.

The legal tampering period opens March 11, with the new league year (and official free agency) starting March 13. Once a player is tagged, he has until July 15 to sign an extension with his respective team. Absent an extension agreement by that date, the player must play the 2023 season on the tag (or go the Le’Veon Bell/Dan Williams/Sean Gilbert route, passing on guaranteed money and skipping the season).

High-profile free agents remain weeks away from hitting the market. As PFR’s tag recipients list shows, a handful of players are prevented from taking their services to free agency each year. This year looks to present a few more tag candidates compared to 2023. With a handful of teams determining if they will need to use the tag to prevent a free agency path, here are the players who figure to be tagged or at least generate conversations about being franchised ahead of the March 5 deadline:

Locks

Josh Allen, OLB (Jaguars)
Tag cost: $24MM

GM Trent Baalke did not leave much suspense when he addressed Allen’s future last month. The veteran exec said the 2019 first-round pick will be a Jaguar in 2024, indicating the team would use its franchise tag if necessary. The Jaguars do have Calvin Ridley as a free agent, but the team would owe the Falcons a 2024 second-round pick if it extended the wide receiver’s contract before the start of the league year. The second pick sent to Atlanta will only be a third-rounder if Jacksonville lets Ridley hit free agency. It makes more sense for Jacksonville to circle back to Ridley after allowing him to test the market. An Allen tag effectively ensures that will happen.

Timing his sack breakthrough well, Allen registered a Jags-record 17.5 during his contract year. The five-year Jaguar has combined for 55 QB hits over the past two seasons and ranks top 10 in pressures over the past three. The tag regularly keeps top edge rushers from hitting free agency, and the 26-year-old pass rusher — while obviously wanting to be paid what he’s worth — expressed a desire to stay in Jacksonville long term.

The Jags have regularly unholstered their tag during the 2020s, cuffing Yannick Ngakoue in 2020 and then keeping Cam Robinson off the 2021 and ’22 markets. The team kept Evan Engram out of free agency last year. Robinson signed an extension in 2022, and the Jags re-upped Engram last July. The Ngakoue situation could be notable, as the edge rusher became disgruntled with the Jags and was eventually traded to the Vikings that summer. No signs of that level of trouble are brewing with Allen yet.

Jaylon Johnson, CB (Bears)
Tag cost: $19.8MM

Johnson is likely to become the first franchise-tagged cornerback since the Rams kept Trumaine Johnson off the 2017 market. The Bears are the most recent team to tag a corner, using the transition tag to cuff Kyle Fuller in 2018. They will almost definitely follow suit with Johnson, who has been rumored to be tagged for several weeks. A Ryan Pace-era draftee, Johnson expressed his desire to stay with the Bears ahead of his contract year. With that platform campaign producing some twists and turns, that price has gone up significantly.

After unsuccessful in-season extension talks, the Bears gave Johnson an 11th-hour opportunity to gauge his trade value. The Bears did not alert teams Johnson, 24, was available until the night before the Oct. 31 deadline. Although the Bills and 49ers engaged in talks about a trade, the Bears held out for a first- or second-round pick. Nothing materialized, which will likely come up during the team’s talks with Johnson. The Bears then extended trade pickup Montez Sweat, leaving Johnson in limbo. But the former second-round pick stuck the landing on an impact season. He is firmly in the Bears’ plans, and the team holds more than $66MM in cap space — plenty to squeeze in a tag onto the payroll.

Pro Football Focus’ top-graded corner in 2023, Johnson displayed a new gear that has made him worthy of a tag. Finishing with four interceptions and allowing just a 50.9 passer rating as the closest defender, the Utah alum soared to second-team All-Pro status. The Bears, who last used the tag on Allen Robinson in 2021, made no secret of their interest in retaining Johnson and will have a few more months to negotiate with him as a result of the tag.

Likely tag recipients

Brian Burns, OLB (Panthers)
Projected tag cost: $24MM

The Panthers hiring a new GM and head coach classifies this as just short of a lock, but familiar faces remain. Carolina promoted assistant general manager Dan Morgan to GM and blocked DC Ejiro Evero from departing. Burns has been viewed as a likely tag recipient since last season, after negotiations broke down. The Panthers have not offered a negotiating masterclass here, as Burns has been extension-eligible since the 2022 offseason. Since-fired GM Scott Fitterer had viewed Burns as a re-up candidate for two offseasons, but multiple rounds of trade talks boosted the 2019 first-rounder’s leverage.

In what looks like a mistake, the Panthers passed on a Rams offer that included two first-rounders and a third for Burns at the 2022 trade deadline. Carolina then kept Burns out of 2023 trade talks with Chicago about the No. 1 pick, ultimately sending D.J. Moore to the Windy City for the Bryce Young draft slot. Carolina also kept Burns at the 2023 deadline, as teams looked into the top pass rusher on the NFL’s worst team. Burns also saw his position’s market change via Nick Bosa‘s record-setting extension ($34MM per year). The 49ers’ landmark accord came to pass after Burns had set a $30MM-AAV price point, complicating Morgan’s upcoming assignment.

Burns, 25, has registered at least 7.5 sacks in each of his five seasons. While he has only topped nine in a season once (2022), the two-time Pro Bowler is one of the league’s better edge rushers. Given the Panthers’ history with Burns, it would be borderline shocking to see the team allow the Florida State alum to leave in exchange for merely a third-round compensatory pick.

Burns has said he wants to stay with the Panthers; he is unlikely to have a choice this year. The Panthers last used the tag to keep right tackle Taylor Moton off the market in 2021; the sides agreed to an extension that offseason.

Tee Higgins, WR (Bengals)
Tag cost: $21.82MM

Seeing their hopes of capitalizing on the final year of Higgins’ rookie contract dashed due to Joe Burrow‘s season-ending injury, the Bengals look to be giving strong consideration to keeping the Burrow-Higgins-Ja’Marr Chase trio together for one last ride of sorts. The Bengals hold $59.4MM in cap space — fifth-most currently — and structured Burrow’s extension in a way that makes a Higgins tag palatable. Burrow’s deal does not spike into historic cap territory until 2025.

While a future in which Chase and Higgins are signed long term is more difficult to foresee, the Bengals still carry one of the AFC’s best rosters. It is likely Burrow’s top two weapons remain in the fold for at least one more year. Higgins, 25, did not come close to posting a third straight 1,000-yard season. Burrow’s injury had plenty to do with that, though the former second-round pick started slowly. A Bengals 2023 extension offer underwhelmed Higgins, but the Bengals kept him out of trades. A tag will give Cincinnati the option to rent him for 2024. A tag-and-trade transaction is viewed as unlikely, as the Bengals load up again.

How the organization proceeds beyond 2024 will be a key storyline, but the Bengals — who kept Jessie Bates in similar fashion in 2022 — are positioned well to run back perhaps the NFL’s best receiving tandem. While director of player personnel Duke Tobin stopped short of guaranteeing Higgins will be a Bengal in 2024, signs point to it.

Justin Madubuike, DL (Ravens)
Tag cost: $22.1MM

Seeing their defensive coordinator depart and once again facing questions at outside linebacker, the Ravens have the option of keeping their top 2023 pass rusher off the market. They are probably going to take that route. Madubuike raised his price considerably during an impact contract year, leading the Ravens with 13 sacks. While Mike Macdonald was able to coax surprising seasons from late additions Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy, Madubuike drove Baltimore’s defensive engine and will likely be guaranteed a high salary by signing his franchise tender.

Perennially interested in hoarding compensatory picks, the Ravens have regularly let breakthrough pass rushers walk in free agency. This dates back to the likes of Paul Kruger and Pernell McPhee and subsequently included Za’Darius Smith and Matt Judon. The Ravens have only been able to replace Judon with stopgap options — from Clowney to Van Noy to Justin Houston — and again must figure out a solution alongside Odafe Oweh on the edge. Madubuike, 26, proved too good to let walk; the former third-round pick will once again be expected to anchor Baltimore’s pass rush in 2024.

Antoine Winfield Jr., S (Buccaneers)
Tag cost: $17.12MM

We mentioned Winfield as the Bucs’ most likely tag recipient around the midseason point, and signs now point to that reality coming to pass. The Bucs want to re-sign Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans. The bounce-back quarterback’s tender price would check in at nearly $36MM, and because Evans was attached to a veteran contract, his tag number would come in well north of Higgins’ — at beyond $28MM. As such, the Bucs cuffing Winfield has always made the most sense, and after the second-generation NFL DB’s dominant contract year, it would be stunning to see the team let him walk.

The Bucs have let their recent top free agents test free agency, only to re-sign Shaquil Barrett (2021), Carlton Davis (2022) and Jamel Dean (2023). Winfield may be on a higher plane, having secured first-team All-Pro acclaim last season. Davis and Dean have never made a Pro Bowl; Winfield’s productive and well-regarded 2023 stands to separate him. Winfield, 25, tallied six sacks and three interceptions while forcing an NFL-leading six fumbles. This included a pivotal strip of DJ Chark in the Bucs’ Week 18 win over the Panthers, which clinched them the NFC South title.

Winfield will undoubtedly be eyeing a top-market safety extension. Derwin James established the current standard, $19MM per year, just before the 2022 season. Last year’s safety market did not feature big-ticket prices, for the most part, but the Falcons made Jessie Bates (four years, $64MM) an exception. If Winfield were to reach free agency, he would be expected to eclipse that.

The Bucs, who have used the tag three times in the 2020s, should not be considered likely to let Winfield follow Davis and Dean’s path by speaking with other teams. Tampa Bay has used the tag three times in the 2020s, cuffing Barrett in 2020 and tagging Chris Godwin twice. The team eventually re-signed both, and while the statuses of Mayfield and Evans (and All-Pro tackle Tristan Wirfs) create a crowded contract queue, the Bucs will certainly be interested in re-upping Winfield.

On tag radar

Saquon Barkley, RB (Giants)
Tag cost: $12MM

Barkley has said he wants to finish his career with the Giants, and the team will meet with the Pro Bowl running back’s camp at the Combine. But a recent report indicated the team is highly unlikely to tag the six-year veteran a second time. The Giants should not be ruled out from reversing course and keeping Barkley, given his importance to an otherwise low-octane offense, but it appears they are prepared to move on if the talented RB does not accept their extension offer this time around. A host of talented backs await in free agency, though Barkley would likely be the top prize were he to reach the market.

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