Month: December 2024

NFC Notes: Poles, Eagles, Garoppolo

It has been a slow offseason for the Bears with plenty of losses and misses, but new general manager Ryan Poles isn’t panicking. According to Courtney Cronin of ESPN, Poles is preaching patience to the franchise. Patience is something of which Chicago-fans have likely run plum out, but, with the current state of the Bears’ roster, it’s a wise path to take.

We’ve seen other rebuilding franchises take wild stabs through trades and free agency, making expensive, headline-grabbing moves that leave them little room to work with when addressing other roster holes. The Rams won a Super Bowl making flashy moves, but did so when those moves were the difference between winning or losing a Super Bowl. Teams like the Bears and Jaguars currently have too many holes on their roster for one offseason-worth of moves to elevate them to a Super Bowl-level.

Poles won’t let moving star pass-rusher Khalil Mack or losing defensive lineman Larry Ogunjobi to a failed physical or watching the Bills match the offer sheet on guard Ryan Bates force him into desperately grasping at whatever other players are available. He’ll continue to stick to his plan and his assessments. He’ll wait for an appropriate time, like the Draft or the post-June 1 period, to utilize the team’s accumulated cap space. Poles may just have the patience and demeanor to lead Chicago out of the NFC North basement.

Here are a few other notes from around the NFC, starting in the city of brotherly love:

  • The Athletic’s Sheil Kapadia enlisted the help of salary cap and contract expert Jason Fitzgerald, who operates OverTheCap.com, to help her analyze confusing offseason moves from each franchise. When they got to the Eagles, Fitzgerald had some interesting things to say. Fitzgerald asserted that Philadelphia is doing something no other NFL team is. The Eagles have been employing void years in contracts to push salary cap charges to future years. Essentially, if a player holds a $10MM cap charge, the team will eventually pay the $10MM cap charge. By using the void years, the team can take part of that $10MM and move it to later years. Say they take $5MM of that cap hit and move it to the following year. They’ll still be applying that $5MM to their cap space, but, after the league raises the salary cap (as they do every year), that $5MM will represent a smaller percentage of the total cap space in the following year than it would in the current year. The Eagles’ manipulation of the constantly inflating salary cap is nothing short of genius and soon other teams will likely catch on and follow their lead.
  • Earlier this month, Mike Sando of The Athletic went over some of the moves each franchise made this offseason. His take on the 49ers was centered on their handling of the future of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo’s shoulder rehabilitation, combined with a 2022 base salary of $24.6MM, made it hard for San Francisco to move the former starting quarterback. According to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, Garoppolo and the 49ers mutually agreed to have him rehabilitate his shoulder off-site, away from the team, so, at this point, second-year quarterback Trey Lance has effectively taken over as the team’s first-string passer. Sando asserts that the best solution would be a compromise wherein Garoppolo would stay for the time-being on a guaranteed deal with some “dummy years” added onto it, either until San Francisco knows for a fact that they can move forward with Lance or until they know they can get a better value out of moving Garoppolo than they’re getting right now. This would provide the opportunity for the 49ers to reinsert Garoppolo back into the starting job they know he can handle if it turns out that Lance can’t.

AFC Draft Rumors: Belichick, Chiefs, Broncos

The first round of the upcoming 2022 NFL Draft has been billed as one of the most unpredictable in recent memory. There is plenty of top talent that will anticipate hearing their names called from picks 1-15 or so, but NFL Network insider Ian Rapoport believes that, past that, first-round picks will be used on players that some teams have third-round grades on, and, ultimately, some players with first-round talent may fall to the third round. This is part of a common analysis that the Draft lacks the top-end talent of most drafts but is much deeper than most with the strength of this Draft being in picks 30-90.

Beyond the regular challenge of guessing who a team might pick or where a player might fall, there is the near certainty that every mock draft on the internet will go down the drain when a team ultimately makes a draft-day trade. When discussing what might go down this Thursday with the Patriots, ESPN’s Mike Reiss is riding the odds.

Since head coach Bill Belichick joined New England in 2000, the Patriots lead the NFL in draft-day trades with 83. The next closest team is the Eagles with 64. Reiss believes that Belichick will stay true to form and strongly attempt to trade down later into the first round, allowing the Patriots to collect more draft capital in that deeper part of the Draft.

Here are a few other rumors concerning how teams in the AFC will be approaching the Draft:

  • In accordance with the opinions above, Michael David Smith of NBC Sports reported that Chiefs general manager Brett Veach told the media they have 16-18 players on the board with first-round grades. The good news: the Chiefs have two first-round picks. The bad news: those picks are 29th and 30th overall. Veach doesn’t love their chances of having one of those guys fall to them at the end of the first round. The Chiefs could either combine those picks together to try and trade up and nab one of the guys on their board or, more likely, Kansas City will trade down, exchanging those picks for others in the 30-60 range that Veach likes, adding to their current picks at 50th and 62nd.
  • When the Broncos acquired quarterback Russell Wilson from the Seattle Seahawks, they surrendered their two earliest picks in the 2022 NFL Draft. Without those picks, they won’t have an opportunity to draft anybody until the last pick of the second round, which they acquired from the Rams in exchange for outside linebacker Von Miller. General manager George Paton says that if they suffer from the fear of missing out, they’ll just “watch Russell Wilson highlights.” Since the Wilson-trade took their first two picks of the 2023 NFL Draft, as well, ESPN’s Jeff Legwold reports that Paton will certainly be open to fielding trade calls in order to potentially get Denver some more draft picks for next year.

Draft Rumors: Jets, Dean, Walker, Hill, Hamilton

Both New York teams are in the enviable position of having two top-ten picks in Thursday’s first-round of the 2022 NFL Draft. The Jets have made it clear that they are prepared to use their No. 10 overall pick in order to acquire 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel, who requested a trade this week.

According to Tony Pauline of Pro Football Network, league sources believe the Jets will use the No. 4 overall pick to address their defense, despite recent chatter that they may be targeting NC State offensive lineman Ikem Ekwonu. Pauline reports that he has heard that “the coaches love Kayvon Thibodeaux, but front office personnel have a lot of concerns.”

Thibodeuax has seen his stock drop since the tail end of the college football season with questionable concerns over his motor and effort. Coaches, though, see his ability and potential and, understandably, want him on their defense.

Here are a few more Draft rumors from Pauline’s article concerning some risers and fallers:

  • Pauline claims there’s a 50/50 chance that Georgia linebacker Nakobe Dean goes in the first round. Dean led the National Champion Bulldogs in tackles for loss and was second on the team in both total tackles and sacks. He’s a talented prospect, but teams desire to have the fifth-year option at their disposal for other positions such as cornerback, receiver, or quarterback.
  • Dean’s teammate, fellow Georgia linebacker Quay Walker, has been soaring up the boards lately. Like Dean, it’s unlikely Walker hears his name called on Day 1, but it’s looking more and more likely that he won’t last long in the second round of the Draft.
  • Michigan safety Daxton Hill has been the consensus second-best safety prospect for all of the offseason. While he’s been rising up boards as teams begin to realize his versatility and ability to play as a free safety, in the box safety, or even over a slot receiver, he’s still unlikely to be selected in the first round. Hill is another player expected to be drafted early into Day 2.
  • The top consensus safety prospect on the board, Notre Dame’s Kyle Hamilton, has been dropping in popularity in the days leading up to the Draft. It won’t be enough for him to lose his title as the top-ranked safety over Hill or even enough to drop him out of the first round, but for a player that is consistently considered a top-ten or even top-five prospect in the Draft, this fall is potentially costing him top money. Pauline reports that league sources see Hamilton going around picks 15 to 20.

Latest On Dolphins’ Pursuit Of Tom Brady, Sean Payton

Two weeks ago, one of our staff writers, Rory Parks, posted a story detailing an update on a bit of a conspiracy being reported by Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk. The reporting from Florio concerned a plan by the Dolphins to acquire quarterback Tom Brady and former-Saints head coach Sean Payton to create one of the most enviable QB-HC tandems in the league. 

The theory dates back to January 2020, when Brady was set to hit free agency and the possibility arose that he may finally leave New England. Florio reported that the Dolphins were generating the most buzz with talk of potentially making Brady a minority owner of the team. Then, this past February, Florio followed it up with a report that the Dolphins, once again, were looking into acquiring the two leaders during the offseason. Florio’s most recent reports on the matter double down on his assertion, claiming that the deal was “very close” to going down before former-Dolphins head coach Brian Flores filed a racial discrimination lawsuit against the team following his dismissal, throwing a wrench into any of Miami’s plans moving forward.

For the most part, it’s been Florio, alone, beating this drum, but, in an episode of STUpodity, the podcast hosted by Dan Le Batard and Jon Weiner, known professionally as Stugotz, released this Friday, NBC Sports’ Chris Simms added some fuel to the fire.

During the podcast, Simms said, “(The Dolphins) were going to trade a second-round pick to Tampa Bay to get Brady. (The Buccaneers) weren’t going to hold him hostage. Sean Payton and the Saints, that was going to be a first-round pick to get that deal done. It was a very real, tangible thing and the Brian Flores lawsuit definitely threw a wrench in it.”

It’s difficult to say how much, if any, of this was legitimately set to happen. In theory it makes sense, but, at the same time, the moves necessary to bring in Brady and Payton certainly would’ve precluded them from being able to make the moves they’ve made since the rumors started, moves that have taken them from 5-11 in 2019 to two consecutive winning seasons in 2020 & 2021. Would they have had the picks to draft young contributors like Tua Tagovailoa, Austin Jackson, Robert Hunt, Raekwon Davis, Jaylen Waddle, Jaelan Phillips, Jevon Holland, or Liam Eichenberg? Or the draft capital to acquire star wide receiver Tyreek Hill?

Bringing Payton and Brady in to lead an empty cupboard likely wouldn’t have put them in a favorable position back in 2020. Bringing them in now makes a lot more sense, but is way more difficult to make happen. Still, as long as Payton still wants to coach and Brady still wants to play, these rumors will likely persist into the next few offseasons.

WR Rumors: McLaurin, Parker, Harry

The 2019 draft was rife with wide receiver talent, and a few WRs from that class — the 49ers’ Deebo Samuel, the Titans’ A.J. Brown, the Seahawks’ D.K. Metcalf, and the Commanders’ Terry McLaurin — have been prominently featured in PFR pages in recent weeks. That is largely because those players are extension-eligible for the first time this offseason, and they have all done enough in their first three professional seasons to command massive multi-year extensions.

Samuel, Brown, and McLaurin have elected to sit out at least the on-field portion of their teams’ offseason programs in their pursuit of new contracts, though Samuel is the only member of that trio to request a trade at this point. McLaurin, who has career averages of 1,030 receiving yards per year and 13.9 yards per reception despite a less-than-ideal QB situation, has not been mentioned as a trade candidate, and Washington head coach Ron Rivera said in February that he hopes to hammer out a new contract for McLaurin sooner rather than later.

The Commanders’ OTAs begin on May 23, and the club wants McLaurin on the field no later than that in order to start building chemistry with new QB Carson Wentz. ESPN’s Dianna Russini hears from her sources that a deal will indeed get done.

Now for more WR news and notes:

  • Shortly after the trade that sent DeVante Parker from the Dolphins to the Patriots, we heard that, while a number of other clubs were pursuing Parker, the 2015 first-rounder wanted to be dealt to New England. Albert Breer of SI.com confirms as much, and he passes along a quote from Parker himself. “I chose to get traded [to the Patriots],” Parker said. “My agent hit me up, just telling me what the situation was, and the options I had for the teams to go to. The first on my list was the Patriots. I’m just excited we were able to get everything done.” It is notable that the Dolphins not only allowed Parker a say in his next destination, but were willing to deal him to a division rival.
  • N’Keal Harry, a less successful member of the above-referenced 2019 class of wide receivers, may have been on his way out of New England even before the Patriots acquired Parker, but the Parker trade seemed to definitively signal an end to Harry’s tenure in Foxborough. He remains on the roster for now, but Mike Reiss of ESPN.com writes that the Arizona State product was not with the team for the start of the offseason program last week. Harry’s agent says his client is training away from the team facilities, and that he and the Patriots continue to have “positive dialogue” about a potential trade (Twitter link via Mike Garafolo of the NFL Network). 2022 will be a critical season for Harry, whose fifth-year option will almost certainly be declined and who will therefore be eligible for free agency next year.
  • The Jets are said to be “all in” on Samuel, but the 49ers are reportedly not even entertaining trade offers at this time.
  • Titans head coach Mike Vrabel has said Brown isn’t going anywhere, and it sounds as if Tennessee may have offered the 2020 Pro Bowler an extension with a $20MM AAV. Even if that’s the case, we do not know any of the more important details like guarantees and cash flow, and it sounds like there is still plenty of negotiating to be done before Brown puts pen to paper.

Seahawks Open To Duane Brown Return, Interested In Trevor Penning

We heard in March that the Panthers were pursuing free agent LT Duane Brown, though nothing has materialized on that front just yet. Brown, who spent the last 4+ seasons as Russell Wilson‘s blindside blocker in Seattle, could still return to the Seahawks, according to head coach Pete Carroll (via Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times on Twitter).

While Carroll has said the door to a reunion remains open, Condotta expects the team to wait until after the draft (which is now just four days away) to make a decision with respect to Brown or other veteran OTs. Indeed, the Seahawks hold the No. 9 overall pick in the draft as a result of the trade that sent Wilson to the Broncos, and they may want to use that pick on a collegiate left tackle from a class that offers a great deal of high-upside talent at the position.

Alabama’s Evan Neal and NC State’s Ikem Ekwonu are widely expected to be off the board by the time Seattle is on the clock with its No. 9 selection, and none of the sources that Tony Pauline of Pro Football Network has spoken to believe that Mississippi State’s Charles Cross will fall past the Panthers’ No. 6 choice. Assuming the ‘Hawks do not have a chance to draft any of those players, Pauline hears that the team is prepared to pull the trigger on Northern Iowa’s Trevor Penning.

The small school product did not necessarily profile as a top-10 prospect at the start of draft season, but his stock has risen considerably since the Senior Bowl, and his 6-7, 321-pound frame certainly projects well to the professional ranks. And, although his FCS competition level should certainly be taken into account when evaluating his NFL future, Pro Football Focus’ analysis of Penning includes a 99.9 run-blocking grade, the highest mark that PFF has ever given out.

The Seahawks and Panthers are the only teams to be connected to Brown thus far this year, and if both clubs fill their LT vacancies with high-end rookies, one would assume that they would no longer be interested in the five-time Pro Bowler. Still, there will be teams with a left tackle need once the draft is over, and Brown should be able to find a starting role on a short-term contract despite the fact that he will turn 37 in August.

Jets “All In” On Deebo Samuel

The Jets have been connected to virtually every wide receiver who is, was, or could be on the trade block this offseason, and they are “all in” on 49ers WR Deebo Samuel, as Tony Pauline of Pro Football Network reports. New York currently holds the Nos. 4 and 10 overall selections in this week’s draft, and GM Joe Douglas is prepared to use the No. 10 choice as part of a package to acquire Samuel, who has requested a trade.

As Rich Cimini of ESPN.com writes, Douglas would obviously prefer to acquire Samuel without giving up either of his top-10 picks, though that seems like a pipe dream. San Francisco is said to have “zero intention” of trading its dynamic offensive weapon, and Cimini writes that, if the Niners do elect to make Samuel available, the Jets expect them to “ask for the moon.” Several days ago, Ralph Vacchiano of SNY.tv reported that the 49ers are not even listening to offers at this time.

Assuming San Francisco power brokers John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan do not deviate from that position, the Jets are going to have fill their WR need through the draft. Which may not be a bad thing. There are plenty of talented wideouts in this year’s collegiate class, and such a player would be cost-controlled for at least three seasons. Samuel, meanwhile, wants a deal with an AAV of at least $25MM, and though the Jets were willing to dole out that kind of money for Tyreek Hill, it’s still a steep price to pay, especially when combined with the draft capital that it will take to acquire Samuel.

The 49ers, who are coming off an NFC Championship Game appearance and who have designs on making another deep postseason run, obviously want to give presumptive QB Trey Lance as many weapons as possible. While the Jets’ No. 10 pick and (presumably) a handful of other draft choices would help to mitigate the loss of Samuel and would keep a hefty cap charge off the books in the coming seasons, Lance’s rookie contract affords plenty of cap flexibility in the near-term, and Samuel’s All-Pro presence would be difficult to replace.

Samuel is prepared to sit out the 49ers’ offseason program until he and the team reach an agreement on a long-term pact.

Logan Ryan Files Grievance Against Giants

Safety Logan Ryan was signed by the Buccaneers in March, one day after being released by the Giants. Per Dan Duggan of The Athletic, Ryan has filed a grievance against Big Blue (Twitter link).

The Ryan release was not necessarily part of new Giants GM Joe Schoen‘s efforts to shed payroll and make his club cap-compliant; the transaction was only expected to net about $775K of cap space for 2022, since Ryan was not designated a post-June 1 cut. Instead, parting ways with Ryan had more to do with the fact that he is 31 and was deemed to be an imperfect fit in New York’s new defensive regime (and it did clear $12.25MM off the books for 2023).

Ryan was due an $8.5MM salary in 2022, and $5.5MM of that figure was fully-guaranteed. The remaining $3MM, which is at issue in the grievance, was guaranteed for injury. As Duggan reports in a separate tweet, Ryan underwent postseason finger surgery, so his position is that the injury guarantee should kick in and that he is entitled to an additional $3MM. Until the matter is resolved, 40% of the disputed amount, or $1.2MM, will remain on the Giants’ cap.

Schoen has just two safeties on the roster at the moment (2019 fourth-rounder Julian Love and 2020 second-rounder Xavier McKinney). The Giants currently hold the Nos. 5 and 7 overall picks and will therefore have a good chance to draft star Notre Dame safety/do-it-all weapon Kyle Hamilton, but with plenty of other holes at more valuable positions, the club may choose to pass on the former Golden Domer and address its safety needs with later picks or in post-draft free agency.

Ryan, meanwhile, went from a rebuilding team to a championship contender. By reuniting with former Patriots teammate Tom Brady in Tampa, Ryan will have a chance to add a third Super Bowl ring to his collection as part of a safety group that includes Antoine Winfield Jr.Mike Edwards, and fellow free agent acquisition Keanu Neal.

Steelers, Saints Likely To Take QB In First Round?

As those who even casually follow the NFL predraft process know by now, this year’s collegiate class includes an intriguing but flawed set of quarterbacks, which has led to seemingly unprecedented variance in how executives throughout the league are evaluating the prospects who play the most important position in sports.

ESPN draftnik Todd McShay said, “[w]hat’s wild about this year’s class — more so than any previous year that I can remember — is the difference of opinions when I get off the phone with one guy in the league versus the next guy. And I’m not just talking about scouts, I’m talking general managers, guys who are making the decisions” (via Mike Triplett of ESPN.com).

Per McShay, one club has Ole Miss’ Matt Corral ranked as the top passer in the class, while several teams have Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder at the top of their respective draft boards. Liberty’s Malik Willis has frequently been mentioned as the QB with the highest ceiling, and while McShay suggests some teams prefer Willis to his draftmates, other clubs have Willis as the fourth-best signal-caller. Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett, meanwhile, is generally viewed as either the best or second-best quarterback.

As one might expect in light of these differences in QB evaluations, there have been plenty of conflicting reports regarding how many passers might actually be selected in the first round. On Friday, Matt Miller of ESPN.com reported that it would not be a surprise to see Pickett as the only QB picked on Day 1, but Tony Pauline of Pro Football Network wrote on Saturday that the Saints and Steelers look like “sure bets” to nab a first-round quarterback, and that at least three QBs will hear their name called among the first 32 picks.

The Saints now have two first-round choices (Nos. 16 and 19 overall) by virtue of their trade with the Eagles earlier this month. McShay and others have opined that New Orleans did not make that move with the goal of selecting a quarterback, but it certainly puts the club in good position to do exactly that. Indeed, one thing that all evaluators do seem to agree on is that this year’s highest-profile QBs are not top-10 prospects, and are actually mid- to late-first-round talents. As such, even if the Saints do not want to package their two first-rounders in an effort to move into the top-10 and assure themselves of the opportunity to nab their preferred passer, they theoretically could still have their pick of the litter just by staying put (though the premium that teams place on the quarterback position suggests that such a strategy would be a risky one if New Orleans really does want to come away from the draft with its highest-rated quarterback in tow).

The Saints took top-30 visits with Corral, Pickett, Willis, and UNC passer Sam Howell, and that same quartet also met with the Steelers. Pittsburgh has heavily scouted this year’s quarterbacks and is said to prefer Pickett, though ESPN.com’s Jordan Reid (in the same Triplett piece linked above) reports that the Steelers are high on Ridder — with whom they also visited — and could be poised to pounce on the former Bearcat if he falls past the Saints.

Pauline writes that both Ridder and Corral are building first-round momentum, and he also hears that the Seahawks — who presently hold the No. 9 overall selection — could try to move into the back end of the first round to pick up a passer to groom behind Drew Lock. Earlier reports maintained that Seattle could use its top-10 choice on a QB, but Pauline’s piece implies that the club has other ideas for that pick. Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times reiterates that the ‘Hawks truly think Lock can be a legitimate NFL starter, which suggests that if team brass is targeting a quarterback in the draft, such a player would be acquired with the No. 40 or No. 41 pick or by packaging one or both of those picks to trade up 10 spots or so.

Latest on Titans WR A.J. Brown

The Titans have done everything this offseason to convince wide receiver A.J. Brown that they want him on their football team, short of offering him the contract he apparently desires. 

We’ve seen reports from general manager Jon Robinson that Tennessee has no plans to trade their star wide receiver, according to Aaron Wilson of Pro Football Network, and, rightly, they shouldn’t want to. Despite a small history of injuries in his three-year career, Brown is one of the Titans’ most explosive and consistent playmakers, even in an offense last year that was missing former-Titan Corey Davis and running back Derrick Henry and had Julio Jones looking like a shell of his former self.

Head coach Mike Vrabel expressed his love for Brown on the “Rich Eisen Show,” and made it clear that Brown won’t be traded “as long as (he’s) the head coach,” according to Dianna Russini of ESPN. Russini went on to report that Brown has no interest in participating in any team events without a new deal.

The sides are working towards an extension, but, so far, haven’t found room to meet in the middle. Former-Colts punter Pat McAfee spoke with NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport concerning an alleged phone call between disgruntled 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel and Brown, who share an agent. In the call, the person assumed to be Brown claims an offer from his team of $20MM per year, with no clarification on the deal’s length. Rapoport, who admittedly did not corroborate that the video of the phone call was real, said that $20MM would be a good starting point for negotiations, as teams don’t tend to put their best offers out their to start.

Before this offseason, it would make sense for Brown to be getting a deal around $20MM per year. The numbers that he’s put up in his career are similar to other receivers who make that much, such as Mike Williams, Chris Godwin, and Amari Cooper, and, with Brown being a bit younger than those three, he might command a bit more money with the expectation that he’ll be around longer in his prime. The deal that most likely changed Brown’s expectations, was the contract the Jaguars gave to Christian Kirk. If Kirk can command $18MM per year having never recorded a 1,000-yard receiving season in his four-year career, surely Brown should command far more after doing so in both of his first two years in the league.

In his worst statistical year last season, where Brown played in the least amount of games of his career and was the only player defenses needed to focus on, Brown still produced, catching 63 balls for 869 yards and 5 touchdowns in 13 games. It was the first time he failed to amass 1,000 receiving yards and 9 total touchdowns in a season.

Seeing how important Brown is to the Titans’ offense, combined with the expected holdout Brown has threatened, Robinson and Vrabel will likely be feeling the pressure to concede sooner rather than later. Salaries are constantly rising to new heights in the NFL, and, if Tennessee loves their star receiver as much as they say they do, why not make an example by giving him a contract that shows it?