Turnarounds in the NFL often don’t take long. Unlike Major League Baseball, where prospects usually face a minimum promotion time of two years, new NFL players can make an impact during their respective rookie seasons. With more teams embracing the use of free agency and trades as avenues of player acquisition, it’s possible to improve a club year-over-year.
Worst-to-playoffs revamps happen nearly every season, and 2018 was no exception. A year after finishing last in the NFC North, the Bears and new head coach Matt Nagy rebounded to take the division crown. Meanwhile, the Texans and Colts both posted 4-12 records in 2017 before earning a postseason appearance this past season.
So, which last place team from 2018 will make a leap into the playoffs during the upcoming season? Let’s take a look at the candidates:
New York Jets
The Jets are searching for a new general manager after firing Mike Maccagnan, but they should be poised for an improvement on the field as 2018 third overall pick Sam Darnold heads into his sophomore campaign. Gang Green gave Darnold a few more weapons by signing running back Le’Veon Bell and wide receiver Jamison Crowder, but failed to augment an offensive line that ranked dead last in run-blocking and 18th in pass-blocking, per Football Outsiders. While New York could see a jump in their win total, will it be enough to overtake the Patriots?
Cincinnati Bengals
Although the Bengals didn’t make any splash additions during the offseason, they did attempt to address their porous offensive line by drafting Alabama tackle Jonah Williams (which will push incumbent blindside protector Cordy Glenn to guard), and signing ex-Bills guard John Miller. Improving their front five from “horrible” to simply “average” would be a win for the Bengals, especially as quarterback Andy Dalton enters a make-or-break year under new head coach Zac Taylor.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Among the clubs that finished in last place in 2018, the Jaguars have experienced the most recent success: as recently as 2017, Jacksonville finished 10-6 and was a few plays away from making a Super Bowl appearance. The Jaguars retained head coach Doug Marrone after last year’s 5-11 record, but quarterback Blake Bortles was cut, clearing the way for free agent signee Nick Foles. Rookie first-round edge rusher Josh Allen will join a defense that’s bringing back most of its key parts aside from linebacker Telvin Smith, who won’t play in 2019.
Oakland Raiders
The Raiders raised eyebrows by adding controversial locker room presences such as Vontaze Burfict and Richie Incognito this offseason, but they’ve also brought in talent at positions of import, such as wideouts Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams, offensive tackle Trent Brown, and edge rusher Clelin Ferrell. The wisdom of drafting a running back (Josh Jacobs) and box safety (Johnathan Abram) in the first round notwithstanding, Oakland has undoubtedly augmented its roster. Whether the Raiders’ moves will be enough to overtake two of the AFC’s best teams in the Chiefs and Chargers is another question.
New York Giants
The Giants’ offseason has been…interesting. After trading away star pass-catcher Odell Beckham Jr. for pennies on the dollar, general manager Dave Gettleman made a number of questionable decisions in free agency and the draft. Big Blue handed Golden Tate a four-yar $37.5MM deal to replace OBJ, but Tate is best in the slot, a position already spoken for by Sterling Shepard. Gettleman then used the sixth overall selection on quarterback Daniel Jones, a prospect most analysts had pegged as a Day 2 selection, and the No. 17 pick on Clemson’s Dexter Lawrence, a run-stuffing defensive tackle who likely won’t be a full-time player.
Detroit Lions
One of only three last place teams to keep their head coach in place, the Lions actually finished with the highest Pythagorean win total (the number of games a club should win based solely on points scored/allowed) of any team on this list, per FO. Detroit went on a minor spending spree over the past few months, adding three former ex-Patriots: defensive end Trey Flowers, cornerback Justin Coleman, and wide receiver Danny Amendola. Even with regression expected for the Bears, it’s difficult to see the Lions overtaking Chicago, Green Bay, and Minnesota for the division crown.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers ranked as a top-12 offensive team in both expected points and DVOA despite trailing off at the end of season, and now they’re turning over their loaded passing unit to Bruce Arians. Scoring points shouldn’t a problem, so the onus will be on new defensive coordinator Todd Bowles to improve a unit that fell apart in 2018. New additions like Devin White, Shaquil Barrett, and Deone Bucannon will buttress a defensive backfield largely populated by first- and second-year players.
Arizona Cardinals
While they’re not necessarily expected to compete for the postseason in 2019, the Cardinals will certainly be a fascinating club to watch during the upcoming year. New head coach Kliff Kingsbury will bring some version of his Air Raid offense to the NFL, and Heisman winner/No. 1 overall pick Kyler Murray will be under leading the attack. Arizona’s draft garnered a wealth of “A” grades across the industry, so the future could be bright for the Cardinals, but they probably don’t have the talent to compete with the rest of the NFC West just yet.
So what do you think? Which of these last place teams is likeliest to earn a postseason berth — either as a division winner or a wild card club — in 2019? Link for app users.