November 30th, 2018 at 12:22pm CST by Zachary Links
The Colts will activate tackle/guard Joe Haeg in advance of Sunday’s game against the Jaguars, the team announced. Haeg was designated for return two weeks ago and has looked healthy enough in practice to warrant a return to the field.
The third-year pro was placed on IR in late September after suffering an ankle injury in the Colts’ Week 3 loss to the Eagles. Prior to that, Haeg started the team’s first three games of the season at right tackle.
Even without Haeg, the Colts’ offensive line has been dominant over the last two months. From Weeks 5 through 12, Andrew Luck attempted 239 passes without being sacked, which was the third-longest such streak in NFL history. All in all, the front five has allowed just eleven sacks on the year, which is the lowest total in the NFL.
Haeg is the second of two players activated off of IR by the Colts this season, meaning that they cannot bring anyone back from IR again this year. The first slot was burned earlier this month when second-round pick Tyquan Lewiswas brought onto the 53-man roster.
The Colts, who are riding a five-game winning streak, will look to stay on the right path when they face the Jaguars in Jacksonville on Sunday. According to Five Thirty Eight, they still have a 29% chance of reaching the playoffs with a 10% shot at capturing the AFC South title.
November 30th, 2018 at 12:13pm CST by Zachary Links
Sack artists tend be among the highest earners in free agency, but in 2019 we’ll find out whether the same applies to a defensive end who has generated a ton of pressure against opposing QBs without a ton of sack dances. We’re talking about Patriots standout Trey Flowers, who will look to cash in among a star-studded class of edge rushers.
This spring, teams will be champing at the bit for free agents like Frank Clark (10 sacks), Dee Ford (9 sacks), DeMarcus Lawrence (9.5 sacks), Jadeveon Clowney (7 sacks). Flowers, meanwhile, has just 3.5 sacks through ten games this season, meaning that he’s on pace for less takedowns than his seven sacks in 2016 and his 6.5 sacks last year.
Of course, sacks don’t tell the whole story when it comes to evaluating edge rushers. Flowers has been terrorizing opposing QBs all season long and Jets signal caller Josh McCown can attest to that after he was hit four times by the Arkansas product last week. Heading into the meat of Week 13, Flowers ranks as Pro Football Focus’ No. 2 ranked edge defender, behind only Texans superstar J.J. Watt. That’s not too shabby for a player who won’t turn 26 until August.
Watt, by the way, is under contract through 2021 thanks to the six-year, $100MM contract extension he inked in 2014. Given the widespread need for high-level pass rushers, the increase of the salary cap, and the advancement of the market for DEs, it’s possible that Flowers can flirt with or best Watt’s $16.67MM average annual value.
The Patriots typically don’t shell out big bucks for defensive linemen, but they may want to make an exception here. The Patriots’ group of defensive ends beyond Flowers is far from star-studded and they should have the cap room to make his salary fit. A long-term extension with Flowers would cost no less than $13MM annually, so if they’re unwilling to commit, they can franchise tag Flowers for about $17.1MM.
If Flowers hits the open market, what kind of contract will he command? Which teams do you think will be in the mix for him? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section.
November 30th, 2018 at 8:44am CST by Zachary Links
Every year, the Fritz Pollard Alliance releases a list of recommended minority head coaching candidates. This year’s edition is nearly double in size and features the likes of Patriots linebackers coach Brian Flores and Cowboys defensive backs coach/defensive passing game coordinator Kris Richard, as Mike Jones of USA Today writes.
Here’s the complete list of suggested candidates:
Keith Armstrong (Falcons special teams coordinator)
Raheem Morris (Falcons assistant head coach/wide receivers coach)
Hue Jackson (special assistant to the head coach of the Bengals; former Browns head coach)
Kris Richard (Cowboys defensive backs coach/defensive passing game coordinator)
Duce Staley (Eagles assistant head coach/running backs coach)
Flores, the de facto defensive coordinator of the Patriots, figures to be a hot coaching candidate this year. The same goes for Bieniemy, who is helping to guide one of the league’s most dangerous offenses.
Others on this list, such as Jackson and Austin, seem unlikely to garner real consideration for head coaching positions this offseason. The Browns turned the corner after dumping Jackson and appointing Gregg Williams as the team’s interim head coach, which isn’t a great endorsement for the offensive guru. Meanwhile, the Bengals hired Austin in January but fired him earlier this month as his defense was one of the lowest ranked in the NFL.
November 29th, 2018 at 9:32pm CST by Dallas Robinson
While the Patriots haven’t historically paid up for free agent defensive lineman, Trey Flowers could be a special case, as Jeff Howe of The Athletic tweets. For one, Flowers is highly respected within the New England locker room — Howe deems Flowers a “model human being” with zero off-field issues. Second, Flowers and Patriots head coach Bill Belichick share the same agent (Neil Conrich), which could theoretically help push negotiations along. Flowers, 25, is part of stacked 2019 free agent edge rusher class that also includes Jadeveon Clowney, Dee Ford, Frank Clark, and DeMarcus Lawrence. While he’s posted only 3.5 sacks, Flowers ranks sixth in the NFL with 31 quarterback pressures.
Here’s more from the NFL’s two East divisions:
The Eagles were the lone NFL team to contact the Tampa Police Department for more details on linebacker Reuben Foster‘s recent domestic violence arrest, according to A.J. Perez of USA Today. Foster’s arrest — his third of the year — led to his immediate release from the 49ers. Most observers didn’t expect Foster to get claimed off waivers given his track record and the seriousness of his most recent episode, but the Redskinsdid place a claim for the troubled linebacker (and were the only club to do so). Washington has been slammed for taking on Foster, leading team executive Doug Williams to push against the backlash in an interview with Dan Steinberg of the Washington Post. “The high risk was the beat-up that we’re going to take from PR,” said Williams. “We understood that from a PR standpoint, and we’re taking it. The most important thing is, we’re hoping that things come out and it wasn’t the way that everything has been perceived. We don’t know that. We have to wait and see.”
Dolphins vice president of football operations Mike Tannenbaum has been “raving” about Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert, per Tony Pauline of DraftAnalyst.net (Twitter link). Clearly, it’s a bit early to be linking NFL teams to collegiate prospects, and Herbert may not even enter the 2019 draft. But Miami’s possible interest in Herbert only underscores the Dolphins as a potential destination for a first-round quarterback next season. As Adam Beasley of the Miami Herald indicated on Wednesday, incumbent starter Ryan Tannehill‘s 2019 fate with the Dolphins is up in the air, so Miami could certainly be in the market for a young quarterback next spring.
November 29th, 2018 at 8:59pm CST by Dallas Robinson
We’re just five weeks away from the 2018 NFL postseason, and Week 10 offers a number of intriguing matchups that could impact the playoff race. With so much on the line, which game is the most important?
For some context, we’ll use Brian Burke of ESPN’s Playoff Probability Leverage, which Burke tweets out weekly. In short, playoff probability leverage indicates the change in chance of making the playoffs based on the results of the selected game. For example, the Rams, Patriots, Saints, and Chiefs are so assured of earning a postseason appearance that this week’s contests have limited meaning for them (less than 1% playoff leverage). The Lions, Buccaneers, Giants, 49ers, Cardinals, Bills, Jaguars, Jets, and Raiders will also face low playoff leverages because they have virtually no chance of making the postseason.
But for other clubs, Week 10 could mean everything. And by combining the playoff probability leverages of the two teams involved in a selected game, we can determine which contests will most determine the postseason entrants:
Washington Redskins (38%) at Philadelphia Eagles (16%) = 54%
Baltimore Ravens (32%) at Atlanta Falcons (4%) = 36%
Indianapolis Colts (30%) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1%) = 31%
San Francisco 49ers (0%) at Seattle Seahawks (31%) = 31%
Minnesota Vikings (26%) at New England Patriots (1%) = 27%
Carolina Panthers (24%) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1%) = 25%
Denver Broncos (15%) at Cincinnati Bengals (5%) = 20%
Los Angeles Chargers (7%) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7%) = 14%
Week 13 is a strange week in terms of playoff leverage, as nearly every matchup with a combined leverage of at least 20% is extremely one-sided. In other words, a lot of the games this week are critical for one team involved, and nearly irrelevant for the other club. In fact, there are only three contests in which both teams face leverage of at least five percent: Redskins/Eagles, Broncos/Bengals, and Chargers/Steelers. In the latter case, neither Los Angeles nor Pittsburgh is in danger of missing the postseason, but their showdown could be important for playoff seeding.
It’s also important to note that not all playoff probability leverages are created equally. For example, even if the Cowboys — who face a 23% PPL — lose to the Saints on Thursday, they’ll still have a greater than 55% chance of making the postseason. On the other hand, the Eagles, while facing a similar PPL to the Cowboys (24%), will have roughly a one-in-ten chance of earning a postseason berth if they fall to the Buccaneers. If Philadelphia wins, that number rises to about 35%.
So, what do you think? Are the numbers right — is Redskins/Eagles the most critical game of the weekend? Or does a contest farther down the playoff probability leverage spectrum, such as Broncos/Bengals mean more? Vote below, and add your thoughts in the comments section! (Link for app users).
November 29th, 2018 at 8:27pm CST by Dallas Robinson
The NFL should seek to end the Colin Kaepernick collusion grievance via settlement, if only for its own good, opines Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk. The league has indeed broached the topic of a financial settlement with Kaepernick and his team, but those talks have reportedly gone nowhere, as Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com indicated earlier this week. A 2019 hearing now appears likely, but as Florio writes, the NFL has a lot to lose by allowing a hearing to take place. League personnel would likely be deposed, internal communications could be made public, and — in a worst-case scenario — Kaepernick could prove collusion did indeed take place. Of course, the former 49ers quarterback would have to be amenable to a settlement, and given that a) he’s earned more than $43MM during his career and b) his grievance and interests don’t appear to be financially motivated, it seems unlikely he’d agree to be paid for his silence.
Here’s more from the NFL’s two West divisions:
The Broncos are “doing a lot of homework” on collegiate tight end prospects in advance of the 2019 draft, according to Tony Pauline of DraftAnalyst.net (Twitter link). Denver has spent consecutive fifth-round picks on tight ends, but both of the club’s selections have fallen victim to injury. 2017 draft choice Jake Butt missed his entire rookie year while recovering from an ACL tear; he played in three games this season before suffering yet another torn ACL (the third of his football career). Meanwhile, 2018 selection Troy Fumagalli has been on IR since August after going down with a thigh injury. Per Gavrino Borquez of USA Today’s Draftwire, the top draft-eligible tight ends include Noah Fant (Iowa), Kaden Smith (Stanford), and T.J. Hockenson (Iowa).
In his latest mailbag for The Athletic, Matt Barrows writes — perhaps unsurprisingly — 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is in no danger of losing his job despite a disappointing 2018 campaign. Shanahan and general manager John Lynch signed dual six-year contracts prior to the 2017 season, so he presumably has plenty of leeway to execute his vision in San Francisco. Additionally, the 49ers lost both quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and running back Jerick McKinnon before September ended, making it difficult to evaluate the club’s offensive talent.
More from Burrows, who adds three-game starting quarterback Nick Mullens‘ “leash was shortened” following his lackluster performance against the Buccaneers in Week 12. After tossing three touchdowns in his first NFL start, Mullens — whom the 49ers signed as an undrafted free agent in 2017 — has regressed over the past two weeks, throwing just two scores against four picks while posting a 68.5 passer rating during that time. C.J. Beathard, who’s managed a 81.8 quarterback rating in six appearances this season, is now healthy and could get another shot under center if Mullens struggles against the Seahawks on Sunday.
Former Raiders/49ers edge rusher Aldon Smith turned himself into San Francisco police on Tuesday after being accused of domestic violence, reports Evan Sernoffsky of the San Francisco Chronicle. Smith, of course, has been no stranger to off-field incidents since being selected in the first round of the 2011 draft. The Raiders quickly released Smith following another domestic violence episode earlier this year, and it’s obvious Smith will never play in the NFL again.
November 29th, 2018 at 6:58pm CST by Dallas Robinson
The Bears will once again turn to quarterback Chase Daniel when they face the Giants on Sunday, as starter Mitchell Trubisky will sit out with an ongoing shoulder injury, according to Mike Garafolo of NFL.com (Twitter link).
Per Garafolo, Trubisky is healthy enough that he could play if Chicago allowed it (although he’s still not throwing, tweets James Palmer of NFL.com). But playing it safe is probably the right decision for the Bears, especially given their playoff position and their opponent in Week 13. Not only does Chicago have a 96% chance of earning a postseason berth and an 83% chance to win the NFC North (per FiveThirtyEight.com), but the club is a four-point favorite on the road against New York.
Making his first start since the 2014 campaign, Daniel completed 27-of-37 attempts against the Lions in a Thanksgiving Day victory. Daniel, who inked a two-year, $10MM contract with the Bears during the offseason, tossed two touchdowns against the Lions, and while he certainly doesn’t offer the upside of Trubisky, he is capable of managing wins, especially with the NFL’s top defense supporting him.
The Bears don’t believe Trubisky’s injury is a long-term issue, and given how close he was to playing this week, it stands to reason he’ll be available when Chicago takes on the Rams in Week 14. After that pivotal matchup, the Bears will close out the season against the Packers, 49ers, and Vikings.
November 29th, 2018 at 5:30pm CST by Dallas Robinson
The Broncos are planning to workout former Bills quarterback Nathan Peterman early next week, according to Ryan Talbot of New York Upstate (Twitter link).
Denver currently has only two quarterbacks on its roster: starter Case Keenum and backup Kevin Hogan. The Broncos also have another signal-caller — former Saint Garrett Grayson — on their practice squad. None of those passers are necessarily in danger of losing their job, as Peterman is simply part of a large group of free agents Denver will look at in advance of signing players to offseason futures contracts, tweets Nicki Jhabvala of The Athletic.
