Any club that signs an unrestricted free agent during the remainder of the offseason will no longer have to consider the loss of a 2019 compensatory pick. The second Tuesday after the draft marks the deadline for UFAs to factor into the compensatory pick formula, as Nick Korte of Over the Cap points out in an analysis of where the 2019 comp selection process stands.
Compensatory picks are given to teams that lose a greater number of compensatory free agents (or, a greater quality of free agents) than they acquire. The complicated formula that dictates how the picks are dispersed is not disclosed to the public, but teams are wary of signing even lower impact UFAs while it is in effect.
Any player that inks a new contract won’t be entered into the 2019 formula, but that doesn’t mean the compensatory picks have already been distributed. Contract terms and annual value play the most important role in determining which clubs earn which selections, but playtime and postseason honors are also considered. Additionally, any previously qualifying UFA that is cut before Week 10 will not factor into the 2019 formula.
That being said, Korte has an excellent track record of predicting future compensatory selections, as he’s reverse-engineered the private formula used by the league. At present, Korte projects both the Rams and Patriots to collect two 2019 third-round comp picks (the highest possible selection), while the Redskins, Panthers, and Vikings should each earn one third-rounder. The full 2019 projected comp pick slate is available at the link above.