The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- As the offseason progresses, PFR will assess each team by examining the top three needs on each respective NFL roster. We covered three organizations last week:
Patriots running back Dion Lewis is expected to request a three-year contract in the range of $18MM with $10MM guaranteed in order to pass up free agency, according to Jeff Howe of the Boston Herald. Lewis isn’t interested in offering a hometown discount to New England, and the “early vibe” is Lewis won’t re-sign with the Patriots, as Howe reports in a separate piece.
A pact that comes with a $6MM annual value would place Lewis comfortably within the top-10 running back deals, while a $10MM guarantee would tie Lewis for sixth among runners (discounting rookie contracts). The Patriots typically don’t land in that range for running backs, and have usually resided in the $3MM per year scope. Still, Mike Reiss of ESPN.com expects New England to keep a dialogue open with Lewis before the free agent period opens on March 14.
The Patriots have a cavalcade of running backs on their roster, but Lewis was the best of the bunch last year. The 27-year-old Lewis posted the most outstanding season of his career in 2017, toting the ball 180 times for 896 yards (both team highs), managing 214 yards on 32 receptions, and scoring 10 total touchdowns (including one in the return game). Lewis ranked first in Football Outsiders‘ DYAR metric, sixth in broken tackles, and sixth in Pro Football Focus‘ pass-blocking grades.
Aside from Lewis, other New England backs scheduled to hit free agency include Rex Burkhead and Brandon Bolden. At present, the Patriots only have ~$13MM in salary cap space, so retaining any of their free agents may be tough. However, the club can easily increase their cap room to more than $30MM by cutting player such as Martellus Bennett, Dwayne Allen, Mike Gillislee, David Harris, and Alan Branch.
Today’s minor moves
New York Jets
- Signed: DB Kacy Rodgers II
Philadelphia Eagles
- Signed: TE Billy Brown
The Colts have hired Eagles offensive coordinator Frank Reich as their new head coach, the club announced today. It will be a five-year deal for Reich, according to Mike Garafolo of NFL.com (Twitter link), who first reported Reich had agreed to terms with Indianapolis. Chris Mortensen and Adam Schefter of ESPN.com indicated earlier today that Reich was the favorite for the Colts’ vacancy.
Indianapolis, of course, was forced to restart its head coaching search last week after Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels — who’d already been announced as the club’s choice — rejected the Colts’ offer. Reich was one of three candidates interviewed by general manager Chris Ballard, who also met with Saints tight ends coach Dan Campbell and Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier. Chiefs special teams coordinator Dave Toub was expected to be a candidate for the Colts, but was never interviewed.
Reich will reportedly utilize several of McDaniels’ staff choices as his assistants, as the Colts are expected to honor their contracts for defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, offensive line coach Dave DeGuglielmo, and defensive line coach Matt Phair, all of whom inked deals with Indy before McDaniels spurned the club. On the offensive side of the ball, the Colts are high on ex-Seahawks OC Darrell Bevell, but it’s unclear if Reich will hire the free agent play-caller.
After helping lead a Philadelphia offense which ranked third in scoring, seventh in yards, and eighth in DVOA, Reich was expected to garner head coaching interest this offseason, but he didn’t receive a single interview request until the Colts called. It was a similar story last year, when Reich was thought to have a meeting lined up regarding the Bills open HC job, but never formally spoke with the club. Reich last interviewed for head coaching vacancies in 2015 when he met with both Buffalo and New York.
The 56-year-old Reich, who is perhaps best known for leading the Bills offense back from a 32-point deficit in a 1993 playoff game, has worked as an NFL coach since 2008. After spending time with the Colts and Cardinals, Reich was the Chargers’ offensive coordinator from 2014-15 before joining the Eagles the following year.
Philadelphia has now lost its top two offensive assistants from its Super Bowl-winning staff, as quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo is now the Vikings’ offensive coordinator. Running backs coach Duce Staley could be the favorite to take over as the Eagles’ OC, as Philadelphia is not expected to allow the division-rival Giants interview Staley for the same role on their staff.
Eagles win Super Bowl LII. Philadelphia won its first Super Bowl title on Sunday, defeating the Patriots by a score of 41-33 in a classic contest. With the game in the books, both the Eagles and Patriots have several questions to answer this offseason. Philadelphia general manager Howie Roseman needs to decide what to do with backup quarterback — and Super Bowl MVP — Nick Foles, while New England seems incredibly unlikely to re-sign cornerback Malcolm Butler, who was benched for the entirety of Sunday’s defeat.
Colts scramble to find a head coach. The Super Bowl was expected to be Josh McDaniels‘ final game on the Patriots’ staff, but the longtime offensive play-caller stunned the NFL world by rejecting the Colts’ head coaching offer last week — after Indy had already announced him as their new leader. McDaniels reportedly had concerns about moving his family away from the New England area, and while he hasn’t been assured of succeeding current HC Bill Belichick, McDaniels will be more involved with personnel decisions going forward. The Colts, meanwhile, were forced to restart their head coaching search, and Eagles OC Frank Reich has emerged as the frontrunner for the position.
49ers ink their franchise quarterback. After trading a second-round pick for Jimmy Garoppolo last year (in a deal that they accepted in “10 minutes”), the 49ers have locked up the 26-year-old signal-caller to a five-year, $137.5MM contract that makes him the league’s highest-paid player in history on an annual basis. San Francisco structured Garoppolo’s deal in way to take advantage of its mountain of 2018 space, and Garoppolo will count for $37MM against the club’s salary cap next season. Overall, Garoppolo will take home $48.7MM in full guarantees, and $74.1MM in injury guarantees.
Panthers still looking for a GM. Nearly seven months after firing Dave Gettleman, the Panthers still don’t have a long-term general manger in place. Interim GM Marty Hurney was viewed as the favorite for the job, but a harassment complaint — albeit one that has been withdrawn — from his ex-wife could reduce his chances. Titans executive Lake Dawson has now garnered two interviews for the role, while other candidates include Jimmy Raye III (Texans) and Martin Mayhew (49ers).
The coordinator carousel. The Eagles lost well-regarded quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo to the Vikings — with whom he’ll become the team’s new offensive coordinator — and could also see Reich leave the staff if he’s hired by the Colts. The Giants, meanwhile, had been looking at Minnesota’s Kevin Stefanski and Philadelphia’s Duce Staley for their OC role, but the Vikings have already denied Big Blue permission to interview Stefanski while the Eagles are expected to do the same with Staley if Reich goes to Indy.
In an excellent piece for CBS Sports, former NFL agent Joel Corry sets forth how the Eagles might approach this offseason, and he offers his take on the team’s prospects in the short- and long-term. The roster, of course, is loaded, thanks to quality drafting, savvy trades, and an MVP-caliber QB playing on a rookie contract. But cap space is at a premium and will continue to be in the near future.
Luckily for Philadelphia, 19 of its 22 starters are under contract for the 2018 season, but the team will still need to create cap space. The Eagles could ask LT Jason Peters, who is expected to return next year, to take a pay cut, and they could create $5MM of space by declining Torrey Smith‘s 2018 option and another $5MM by releasing or trading Vinny Curry, all of which look like real possibilities. The expected extension of Brandon Graham would also free up some room.
Corry also believes that the team should not trade Nick Foles unless someone makes an offer that Philadelphia cannot refuse, which sounds like at least a second-round pick.
Now for more from the NFC:
- Eagles OC Frank Reich has emerged as the favorite for the Colts’ HC job, and assuming the two sides can strike a deal, Philadelphia will almost certainly not let RBs coach Duce Staley interview for the Giants’ OC vacancy, as Ralph Vacchiano of SNY.tv tweets (indeed, Staley could become the Eagles’ next OC if Reich departs). Yesterday, Vacchiano and Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com broke down where Big Blue’s OC search currently stands, and it’s not exactly good news for new head coach Pat Shurmur.
- As we learned this morning, the Buccaneers fired defensive line coach Jay Hayes, and Roy Cummings of Florida Football Insiders suggests that more pink slips could be coming for Tampa Bay’s coaching assistants, as the team has still not formally announced its 2018 coaching staff.
- Greg Auman of the Tampa Bay Times believes the Buccaneers could turn to Brentson Buckner as a potential replacement for Hayes (Twitter link). Buckner served as the Cardinals’ defensive line coach from 2013-17, and Arizona’s DL was generally quite successful under Buckner’s watch. Tampa Bay GM Jason Licht was the Cardinals’ VP of player personnel in 2013, so he has some personal familiarity with Buckner.
- Last Wednesday, $3.4MM of Coby Fleener‘s 2018 base salary became guaranteed, as Nick Underhill of the Advocate points out (via Twitter). The Saints‘ tight end is under contract through 2020, but he has not become the top target for Drew Brees that many expected when he signed with New Orleans several years ago. The Saints could have saved $3.2MM against the cap by releasing him prior to Wednesday, but there is no obvious replacement on the roster, and if he has not been medically cleared following his season-ending concussion, that could have further complicated matters. It therefore looks like Fleener will be back in New Orleans in 2018.
- The 49ers recently signed QB Jimmy Garoppolo and DE Cassius Marsh to contract extensions before they could hit the open market, and Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee looks at the rest of San Francisco’s free agent class to determine who might be next in line for a new contract. Some of the more prominent names on the list include center Daniel Kilgore, with whom the team has had contract discussions, Carlos Hyde, who may be on his way to a team that features more of a power-running approach, and DE Tank Carradine, whose talents may also be better-suited to a different scheme.
Eagles offensive coordinator Frank Reich has emerged as the favorite to become the Colts’ next head coach, as Chris Mortensen and Adam Schefter of ESPN.com report. The two sides still have to work out contractual details, but Indianapolis wants to bring Reich aboard.
The Colts, of course, were left at the altar when their previous top choice, Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, spurned Indy’s offer at the eleventh hour. After the McDaniels debacle, the Colts interviewed Reich, Bills DC Leslie Frazier, and Saints tight ends coach Dan Campbell. In all, the team has interviewed eight candidates for the position, several of whom accepted head coaching jobs elsewhere before the Colts’ “second search” commenced.
Reich was a hot name at the beginning of this year’s coaching cycle, which makes sense considering how effective the Eagles’ offense was in 2017. However, over time, quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo wound up garnering more attention from teams with HC vacancies thanks to his role in Carson Wentz‘s development (DeFilippo, of course, wound up taking the Vikings’ offensive coordinator position). Reich’s candidacy may also have been hurt by the fact that Doug Pederson is the play-caller in Philadelphia.
Reich, a former third-round pick from the University of Maryland, was an NFL quarterback for 13 seasons, though he started only 20 games during that time (posting a 5-15 record in the process). His playing career ended in 1998, and his coaching career began in 2006 as an intern with the Colts. He eventually moved up Indianapolis’ coaching ranks and served as the team’s WRs coach in 2011. He served in the same capacity with the Cardinals in 2012 and worked as the Chargers’ quarterbacks coach in 2013 before being named the Bolts’ OC in 2014. He worked in that role for two seasons before becoming the Eagles’ OC in 2016.
Speaking of the Eagles, this leaves the Super Bowl champs in a bit of a lurch. They are on the verge of losing two well-respected offensive coaches in Reich and DeFilippo, which means that current running backs coach Duce Staley could be in line to become the team’s new OC. Staley was also rumored to be the Giants’ current top choice for OC, so Big Blue will be left scrambling if Philadelphia does not let Staley get away.
In the end, the Colts may well get a Super Bowl LII OC, just not the one they expected. However, as Schefter and Mortensen note, neither GM Chris Ballard nor the team had any comment Sunday about this latest development. Given what Indianapolis just went through with McDaniels, no announcement will be made until after a contract is fully executed with a new coach, a source said.
Here are today’s workout notes:
Jacksonville Jaguars
- P Taylor Symmank (Twitter link via Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle)
New Vikings OC John DeFilippo is viewed as a rising star in the coaching world, and Minnesota is obviously high on the former Eagles quarterbacks coach, as it targeted DeFilippo as soon as former OC Pat Shurmur left for the Giants’ head coaching job. The Vikings were also willing to wait for Philadelphia’s season to be over before naming Shurmur’s replacement, which shows just how much they liked DeFilippo. Despite the hire, though, the Vikings denied the Giants’ request to interview Minnesota quarterbacks coach Kevin Stefanski for the New York OC gig, and Alex Marvez of SiriusXM NFL Radio suggests that there are two reasons for that (Twitter link). Obviously, the Vikings value Stefanski and want him around in 2018, but the team also thinks there is a good chance DeFilippo could get his own head coaching opportunity in 2019, so Minnesota views Stefanski as a potential replacement (after all, the Vikes did interview Stefanski for the OC position this year before hiring DeFilippo). However, Marvez reports that Stefanski only has one year left on his current contract, so he could become a coaching free agent in 2019.
Now for more from the league’s North divisions:
- The Bears‘ offensive line will be one of their biggest priorities this offseason, and Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune says the team could use one of its top two picks in this year’s draft on an O-lineman. Of course, Chicago will also have to decide what it wants to do with guard Josh Sitton, who has a club option worth $8MM for 2018 (the Bears have until March 9 to exercise that option, and if they do not, Sitton will become a UFA). It is a tough call; on the one hand, Sitton is an accomplished player whose departure will make the team’s O-line situation even more dire, but on the other hand, he is an aging veteran and, if the Bears decline the option, Sitton will count only $666K against the cap in 2018. Biggs does not give an indication as to which way Chicago is leaning at this point.
- In a piece that is well worth a read, Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press chronicles Matt Patricia‘s rise from a low-level assistant in New England to Lions head coach, a rise that was accelerated in 2012 when Detroit GM Bob Quinn — then the director of pro scouting with the Patriots — heard Patricia deliver a poignant speech to New England coaches and players about the recently-deceased Junior Seau.
- Ravens cornerback Marlon Humphrey, whom the team selected in the first round of last year’s draft, was recently arrested for stealing a $15 phone charger, as Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com writes. Humphrey has a preliminary hearing scheduled for March 1 in Tuscaloosa County District Court, at which time a judge will determine whether to dismiss the case or to proceed. Humphrey turned in a strong rookie campaign, and Baltimore will rely on him heavily in 2018.
Ben Volin of the Boston Globe offers an interesting theory as to why the Patriots made an eleventh hour push to retain offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, a theory that has been proffered by two separate league sources. Volin says team brass was taken aback by Bill Belichick‘s controversial decision to bench Malcolm Butler in Super Bowl LII, and he says the Krafts were also surprised that Belichick was able to wrangle only a second-round pick in exchange for Jimmy Garoppolo. As such, Volin suggests that keeping McDaniels really may have been less about having a succession plan and more about giving the Krafts more control over the situation. He writes, “[i]f the tension between the Krafts, Belichick, and [Tom] Brady persists, or if Belichick decides to leave the organization in the next year or two, the Krafts now have a backup plan in McDaniels.”
Now for more out of Foxborough:
- Former Patriot Willie McGinest said on the NFL Network that he spoke with McDaniels, and that McDaniels said there was “absolutely not” any type of guarantee that he would succeed Belichick as New England’s head coach (link via Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk). McDaniels did indicate, however, that he would have job security with the Patriots.
- Citing a “high-level executive” with a rival team, Matt Miller of Bleacher Report says that there is another angle to the Pats’ efforts to keep McDaniels. That executive believes that New England is going to find its quarterback of the future this offseason, and the team wants McDaniels to be around to identify and develop that player.
- Speaking of QBs the Patriots might target in this year’s draft, Mike Reiss of ESPN.com spoke to Senior Bowl executive director and former Browns GM Phil Savage to see who might be Garoppolo 2.0 (assuming, of course, that the upper-echelon passers will be long gone by the time New England is on the clock with the No. 31 overall pick). Savage named Washington State’s Luke Falk, Richmond’s Kyle Lauletta, Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph, and Western Kentucky’s Mike White as potential fits, with Lauletta’s skill-set most closely mirroring Garoppolo’s.
- In the same piece, Reiss reports that the sources close to the situation that he trusts the most say that the decision to bench Butler in Super Bowl LII was purely a football decision, as the team has insisted from the jump. Nonetheless, Reiss does not seem entirely convinced, as he indicates he will do more digging into the matter.
- Reiss believes, as most do, that Rob Gronkowski will return in 2018 and will not hang up the cleats just yet. Volin says it would be hard to blame Gronk if he did walk away, but he believes the tight end’s comments about retirement are probably just laying the foundation for a new contract, or at least for an incentive package similar to the one the Patriots gave him in 2017.