In advance of March 14, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Tennessee Titans, who advanced to the Divisional Round but still replaced head coach Mike Mularkey with former Texans defensive coordinator Mike Vrabel.
Pending Free Agents:
- Eric Decker, WR
- Harry Douglas, WR
- DaQuan Jones, DE
- David King, DE (ERFA)
- Josh Kline, G
- Brice McCain, CB
- Curtis Riley, S (RFA)
- Brian Schwenke, G
- Quinton Spain, G (RFA)
- Erik Walden, LB
- Brandon Weeden, QB
- Avery Williamson, LB
Top 10 Cap Hits for 2018:
- Jurrell Casey, DT: $14,920,000
- Logan Ryan, CB: $11,166,666
- Taylor Lewan, T: $9,341,000
- Brian Orakpo, LB: $9,000,000
- Derrick Morgan, LB: $8,500,000
- Marcus Mariota, QB: $7,704,446
- Delanie Walker, TE: $7,033,334
- Johnathan Cyprien, S: $6,750,000
- DeMarco Murray, RB: $6,500,000
- Rishard Matthews, WR: $5,833,334
Other:
- Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $49,488268
- 25th pick in draft
- Must exercise or decline 2019 fifth-year option for QB Marcus Mariota
Three Needs:
1) Find a young edge rusher: Three edge rushers played more than 50% of the Titans’ defensive snaps in 2017: Brian Orakpo, who will be 32 years old when the 2018 campaign gets underway; Derrick Morgan, who turned 29 last month; and 32-year-old Erik Walden, who is an unrestricted free agent. Tennessee finished in the middle of the pack in both adjusted sack rate (12th) and total sacks (18th), but the team needs to get younger at outside linebacker.
To be clear, the Titans do have some youthful pass rushers on their roster, but none that have shown anything at the NFL level. Kevin Dodd, selected near the top of the second round in the 2016 draft, missed time with a foot injury during his rookie season and subsequently failed to make an impact in 2017. In total, he’s played only 279 defensive snaps during his first two years in the league. A pair of former seventh-rounders — Aaron Wallace and Josh Carraway — also haven’t produced in their brief NFL tenures.
Tennessee has plenty of 2018 salary space (seventh-most in the league, at present), but general manager Jon Robinson isn’t likely to find what he’s looking for on the open market. The Cowboys intend to use the franchise tag on Demarcus Lawrence, while the next-best edge option, Lions defensive end Ezekiel Ansah, will turn 29 years old in May, meaning he’s probably not a fit. While there are several intriguing pass rushers scheduled to become free agents, they’re likely not the type of premier edge players that will immediately affect opposing offenses.
The most fascinating free agent that could be of interest to the Titans is actually on the restricted free agent market. Shaquil Barrett played two-thirds of the Broncos’ defensive snaps a season ago, and while he posted only four sacks, the 25-year-old managed 30.5 pressures. Denver will likely place a second-rounder tender on Barrett, but I wonder if they’ll be able to match a creative offer from Tennessee. Not only does Denver boast far less cap space than the Titans, but general manager John Elway & Co. will likely spend the early days of the free agent period trying to woo Kirk Cousins or another free agent quarterback into joining his club.
The Broncos have botched the restricted free agent process in the very recent past: in 2016, Denver assigned running back C.J. Anderson the original round tender when a second-round offer would have cost just $900K more. The Broncos ultimately matched a Dolphins offer sheet, but Elway completely misread Anderson’s market from the outset, and ended up paying a financial price.
If the Titans craft an offer to Barrett that includes a hefty base salary or roster bonus designed to eat up 2018 cap space, and officially hand that offer to Barrett on the first day of free agency, how will the Broncos react? At a time when they’ll be searching for a signal-caller, possibly fielding trade offers for wideouts Demaryius Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders, and attempting to keep another RFA (center Matt Paradis), the Broncos may be blindsided yet again.
If a Barrett acquisition proves unrealistic, the Titans will still have the option of perusing the unrestricted free agent market. I’ve previously mentioned Aaron Lynch (49ers) and Jeremiah Attaochu (Chargers) as potential additions for clubs in need of upside at the edge position, and the Titans could show interest. Lynch, notably, ranked fifth in the NFL with 34 pressures as recently as 2015, and if he can keep his weight down, he’d be a viable reserve option for Tennessee. With an eye toward youth, the Titans may also consider Cardinals outside linebacker Kareem Martin, who offers 56 games worth of experience and is only 26 years old. Chris Smith (26) flashed in the 2017 preseason with the Bengals and is now freely available. Matching any of these younger defenders with veteran defensive coordinator Dean Pees could result in success.
The draft will offer yet another avenue for the Titans to acquire a pass rusher, but a top heavy class of defensive ends/linebackers means Tennessee might not have a shot at a blue-chip prospect at the end of the first round. Josh Norris of Rotoworld sent Sam Hubbard to the Titans in his most recent mock draft, but there are legitimate concerns about the Ohio State product’s athleticism. Perhaps Tennessee gets lucky and sees Marcus Davenport (UTSA) or Harold Landry (Boston College) slip, but if not, the club will have to be comfortable selecting a player with off-field concerns such as LSU’s Arden Key, or wait until Day 2 and pick up someone like Kansas’ Dorance Armstrong, whom Matt Miller of Bleacher Report calls the draft’s biggest sleeper on the edge.
2) Bring in a complement to Derrick Henry: The Titans are fully expected to release veteran running back DeMarco Murray this offseason in a move that will save the club $6.5MM in both cash and cap space, and while the club and new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur will turn over the rushing attack to second-year back Derrick Henry, Tennessee will need to find a pass-catching back to pair with its bruiser.
LaFleur was the Rams’ offensive coordinator in 2017, and Los Angeles attempted to bring in a back — Lance Dunbar — to spell Todd Gurley on the cheap. Gurley proved he didn’t really require breathers on the way to being named Offensive Player of the Year, and Dunbar was never able to stay healthy, but the Rams at least had the idea in mind. Henry has shown the ability to become an every-down back, a runner who become the foundation of an offense, but I’d expect Tennessee to pursue at least one other RB to play alongside him.Read more
Dion Lewis would be an enviable signing for the Titans, but he’ll likely look for a situation where he can serve as a team’s bell-cow. But fellow Patriots free agent Rex Burkhead could offer Tennessee a similar player, a tough runner who is also excellent in the passing game. Burkhead finished ninth in Football Outsiders‘ receiving DVOA, a measure of how effective a back is on a per-play basis. After only garnering a one-year deal last offseason, Burkhead shouldn’t be expected to land much more than that on the open market next month.
Jerick McKinnon will likely cost more than Burkhead, but he’s also two years younger and arguably a more dynamic back. McKinnon is an outstanding receiver, and he’s ranked 14th in targets among running backs since entering the league in 2014. He also has far more experience as an actual runner than Burkhead: while McKinnon has managed 474 rushing attempts during his career, Burkhead is sitting at just 151. Additionally, McKinnon is a solid blocker in the pass game: among 46 qualifying RBs, McKinnon graded as the No. 8 pass-blocker in 2017, per Pro Football Focus.
Other options abound for the Titans, including free agents such as Darren Sproles, Charles Sims, and Shane Vereen, none of whom should cost much on the open market. Tennessee could also wait to see if a veteran such as Danny Woodhead gets released for his current contract, or even pursue a trade. Would the Seahawks accept a late-round pick for C.J. Prosise? How about the Eagles and Wendell Smallwood? No stone should be left unturned as the Titans look for a Henry complement.
3) Solidify the interior of the offensive line: Per Football Outsiders, ranked first in adjusted line yards when running behind left tackle Taylor Lewan, but 28th when running up the middle. Center Ben Jones still has two years left on the free agent deal he inked in 2016, but the Titans could seek an upgrade at either guard spot.
Tennessee’s guards were both above average a season ago: Josh Kline finished 22nd among 77 PFF qualifiers, while Quinton Spain ranked 27th. Spain is a restricted free agent, so he can be retained at a low cost. Because guard isn’t exactly a highly-valued position, the Titans can likely feel comfortable assigning Spain a second-round tender (at an expected cost of $2.916MM). At that price, it doesn’t make sense for Tennessee to search for an improvement through the draft or on the open market.
Kline is a solid player, too, and given that he’s still only 28 years old, he could generate more interest than expected when the free agent period begins next month. I’d expect Kline to look for $7-8MM annually on a multi-year deal, and he’ll use Jeff Allen‘s four-year, $28MM deal and Brandon Brooks‘ five-year, $40MM pact as comparables. If that’s the price for Kline, the Titans will need to ask themselves if they should A) go all-in on a free agent replacement or B) use an early-round pick to find a starter on an inexpensive rookie contract.
If the Titans take the first path, the club has two options it could go after: Andrew Norwell or Justin Pugh. Norwell is the clear top guard on the market, and given that he won’t be franchise-tagged by the Panthers, he could hypothetically reach for $13MM annually. As one of the better interior lineman in the NFL, Norwell is well-worth the money, and I don’t see any reason Tennessee couldn’t sign him (aside from the team’s historic unwillingness to target high-priced free agents). Pugh isn’t quite the player that is Norwell, but he’ll also be a little more affordable ($10MM per year?) and could offer an option at tackle if injury befalls Lewan or Jack Conklin.
If Tennessee can’t land Norwell or Pugh, the team should either attempt to hammer out a new deal with Kline, or use their first-round pick on an interior lineman. With an offense that’s heavily reliant on a rushing attack, solidifying the front five is a task that can’t be taken lightly. In his first mock draft of the year, Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com sent Iowa center/guard James Daniels to the Titans at pick No. 25. Other that could be available near the end of Day 1 include Will Hernandez (UTEP), Isaiah Wynn (Georgia), and Billy Price (Ohio State).
