2016 Cap Outlook News & Rumors

2016 Cap Outlook: New York Jets

December 25th, 2015 at 12:06pm CST by Luke Adams

Throughout the 2015 NFL season, Pro Football Rumors has been looking ahead to the 2016 offseason, gauging the salary cap situation for a number of teams with significant cap charges for next season. The cap for 2016 hasn’t been set yet, but we can still assess the salary commitments made by a club and determine whether or not that club will be in good financial shape going forward.

In addition to evaluating each team’s overall cap situation, we’ll focus in on a few key players who may be candidates to be extended, restructured, or released by their current teams. These lists aren’t comprehensive, and the names in each category are fluid, depending how the season finishes and how a team’s offseason plays out,. For now though, these are some players to watch.

Using data from Over The Cap, we’re making our way through NFL teams in order of total salary commitments for 2016. Today’s team is the New York Jets, who currently have the ninth-highest total for their ’16 cap.

Let’s dive in….

Top 10 cap hits for 2016:

Darrelle Revis, CB: $17,000,000
D’Brickashaw Ferguson, LT: $14,107,000
Brandon Marshall, WR: $9,500,000
Nick Mangold, C: $8,600,000
Antonio Cromartie, CB: $8,000,000
Eric Decker, WR: $8,000,000
Buster Skrine, CB: $7,750,000
David Harris, ILB: $7,500,000
Marcus Gilchrist, S: $5,626,000
James Carpenter, G: $5,575,000
Current 2016 cap number for top 51 players: $135,814,960

Most teams have at least one cornerback among their top 10 cap hits, and many teams have two, but there aren’t many that have three. The Jets’ three cornerbacks here, who each fall within the team’s top seven 2016 cap hits, were all free agent signings in 2015.

Although new GM Mike Maccagnan‘s moves were generally lauded at the time, you could make the case that the club’s spending spree on secondary pieces was just as questionable an approach as John Idzik opting for the opposite extreme a year earlier, when he didn’t spend on cornerback help at all. As such, it’s not a surprise that Revis, Cromartie, and Skrine all show up on our list of players whose contracts could be addressed this offseason.

Candidates for extension:

Sheldon Richardson, DE

Among the Jets’ highest-paid players, there aren’t many that aren’t locked up through at least the 2017 season, so genuine extension candidates are few and far between. Richardson qualifies, but there are a number of reasons why the team may want to put off a long-term deal for another year.

For one, as a former first-round pick, Richardson has a fifth-year option on his contract, meaning the Jets can extend his rookie deal by a year, securing him through 2017, without any real risk. That gives the club some breathing room to further assess Richardson’s off-field behavior — after his court hearing this winter, the 25-year-old may be facing another suspension from the NFL, so the Jets will have to be fairly confident that Richardson can stay out of trouble off the field before investing big money in him.

Candidates for restructure:

Eric Decker, WR
Nick Mangold, C
Brandon Marshall, WR
Darrelle Revis, CB
Buster Skrine, CB

The Jets have cleverly structured many of their bigger contracts, committing more heavily to base salaries rather than signing bonuses. That gives the team the flexibility to rework certain deals without taking on much future dead money. Marshall, for example, currently has no dead money on his contract. If New York wants to create some cap space for 2016, the club could do so by converting a chunk of Marshall’s salary for next year into a signing bonus. Then, if things go wrong in ’16, the Jets could still cut him without sacrificing a ton of 2017 cap room.

While Mangold’s contract is structured similarly to Marshall’s, Revis’s is a little different if only because there’s still so much guaranteed money left on it. With a $17MM cap hit in 2016 though, followed by charges of $15.333MM (2017), $10.894MM (2018), and $10.894MM (2019), it would certainly make sense for the club to move some salary around in the cornerback’s deal.

If New York needs to create additional cap room, Decker’s and Skrine’s contracts, which feature modest prorated signing bonus charges, are among the many options on the team’s books.

Candidates for pay cut or release:

Antonio Cromartie, CB
Jeff Cumberland, TE
D’Brickashaw Ferguson, LT
Breno Giacomini, RT
Jeremy Kerley, WR

Effective tackles aren’t easy to come by, particularly ones that can play on the left side, so while the Jets may consider moving on from Ferguson and/or Giacomini – or asking them to take pay cuts – those linemen definitely aren’t locks to be released.

Still, Ferguson is nearing his mid-30s, and his play hasn’t been as strong as it was during his Pro Bowl years (2009 through 2011). He’s also projected to have the club’s second-highest cap number in 2016. As for Giacomini, he was signed by the team’s old regime, and has no guaranteed money left on his deal, so if the Jets think they can do better at right tackle, there’s nothing to keep them from moving on — doing so would create nearly $4MM in cap savings.

The old regime also locked up Kerley to his current extension, and he is one of two pass catchers who has seen his role reduced significantly this season under Todd Bowles. Kerley has been targeted just 26 times this year after averaging 81 per season from 2012 to 2014, while Cumberland has 14 targets after averaging 47 per season during the same period. The duo isn’t particularly expensive, so one or both could stick around, but cutting them would create $3MM+ in cap room.

Meanwhile, Cromartie’s spot on the roster looks less secure than Revis’s or Skrine’s, primarly because of how his contract is structured. Cromartie’s deal didn’t feature a signing bonus, and all the guaranteed money is being paid in 2015, so the Jets could cut him without taking on any dead money for 2016 and beyond, creating $8MM in cap savings in the process. Cromartie hasn’t had a particularly productive season in his return to New York, so the team will have to be pretty certain he’s capable of bouncing back to keep him on his current contract.

Contract information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post.

2016 Cap Outlook: Dallas Cowboys

December 5th, 2015 at 8:16pm CST by Luke Adams

Through the 2015 NFL season, Pro Football Rumors has been looking ahead to the 2016 offseason, gauging the salary cap situation for a number of teams with significant cap charges for next season. The cap for 2016 hasn’t been set yet, but we can still assess the salary commitments made by a club and determine whether or not that club will be in good financial shape going forward.

In addition to evaluating each team’s overall cap situation, we’ll focus in on a few key players who may be candidates to be extended, restructured, or released by their current teams. These lists aren’t comprehensive, and depending on a player’s 2015 performance and health, he could drop off one of these lists – or be added to one – as the season goes on. For now though, these are some players to watch.

Using data from Over The Cap, we’re making our way through NFL teams in order of total salary commitments for 2016. Today’s team is the Dallas Cowboys, who currently have the eighth-highest total for their ’16 cap.

Let’s dive in….

Top 10 cap hits for 2016:

Tony Romo, QB: $20,835,000
Tyron Smith, LT: $14,000,000
Brandon Carr, CB: $13,817,000
Dez Bryant, WR: $13,000,000
Tyrone Crawford, DT: $8,750,000
Jason Witten, TE: $8,612,000
Orlando Scandrick, CB: $7,782,271
Sean Lee, LB: $5,950,000
Doug Free, RT: $5,500,000
Cole Beasley, WR: $3,356,000
Current 2016 cap number for top 51 players: $140,409,470

With the cap figures on extensions for Smith and Bryant set to increase significantly in 2016, many of the Cowboys’ top cap numbers belong to key contributors, which is generally a good thing. Still, it can sometimes provide a more difficult path to clearing room.

Consider the Cowboys’ division rivals in Washington, for instance — Scot McCloughan and co. can quickly clear $16MM+ in cap space by parting ways with Robert Griffin III in the offseason. Outside of Carr’s deal, the Cowboys don’t have many potential short-cuts to gaining big chunks of cap room this winter, so it’ll be interesting to see what moves the team makes if it needs extra space.

Candidates for extension:

Barry Church, S

Church isn’t the only player the Cowboys will consider extending this offseason. Travis Frederick, who currently rates as the league’s best center, according to Pro Football Focus’ grades, will be extension-eligible, and the team will certainly try to lock up its Pro Bowl center sooner or later. Church, however, is the only obvious extension candidate whose cap number could be reduced with a new deal.

Of course, the Cowboys’ ability to get something done with Church without increasing his 2016 cap charge will depend on whether the two sides can agree on his value. I wouldn’t consider Church one of the NFL’s top safeties, but he has started every game for Dallas since the start of the 2013 season, and his box-score stats have been impressive — he averaged 122 tackles in 2013 and 2014, and has racked up another 78 this year. If the Cowboys think they can extend him without giving him a significant raise, that would be a deal worth exploring.

Candidates for restructure:

Tyrone Crawford, DT
Tony Romo, QB
Orlando Scandrick, CB
Tyron Smith, LT
Jason Witten, TE

The most ideal contracts for restructuring, from a team’s perspective, are ones without much future dead money, and ones where the cap hits in future seasons don’t increase too significantly. The deals for Crawford, Romo, and Smith don’t exactly fit that bill, but the sheer size of them makes them logical candidates to be reworked if the Cowboys need to create significant cap savings. Dallas could clear close to $5MM in cap space by restructuring Crawford’s contract, nearly $6MM by restructuring Romo’s, and over $7MM by restructuring Smith’s.

Still, if they can avoid it, the Cowboys would be wise to avoid reworking those deals and pushing more dead money to future years. Romo’s, in particular, is starting to look unwieldy, and even if owner Jerry Jones thinks his quarterback still has four good years left in him – which is debatable – the team would be wise to minimize the risk on those later seasons as much as possible.

Smith’s deal is a solid candidate for a restructure, and so is Scandrick’s, which has a significantly higher cap charge in 2016 than in future seasons. Witten’s is a trickier case — the veteran tight end had 703 receiving yards in 2014, the lowest mark of his career besides his 2003 rookie season, and he’s on track for about the same number this year.

With his production on the decline, Witten’s cap hit will rise to $8.6MM in 2016. The club could ask him to take a pay cut on his $6.5MM base salary, perhaps giving him the opportunity to earn back some of that amount in incentives, but given how much he has meant to the franchise on and off the field over the last decade, that may be a conversation the Cowboys prefer to postpone for another year. A restructure could accomplish that.

Candidates for pay cut or release:

Brandon Carr, CB
Andrew Gachkar, LB

As noted earlier, Carr seems extremely unlikely to return to the Cowboys with the Cowboys’ third-highest cap number next year. Of course, I wouldn’t have thought he’d still have the team’s second-highest cap hit in 2015 either, so I can’t say with 100% certainty that the Cowboys will adjust his deal or cut him. But the club’s leverage will certainly increase this winter — if Dallas had parted ways with Carr last winter, it would have created less than $1MM in cap savings. This time around, the team could clear nearly $6.4MM from its cap by releasing him, so he’ll be under more pressure to accept a reduced salary if he wants to remain in Dallas.

As for Gachkar, his $1.9MM cap number isn’t exactly a huge drain on the Cowboys’ 2016 cap, and we usually focus on players with cap hits of $2MM+ in this space. But given how little he has played on defense for the Cowboys this year, Gachkar looks like a release candidate, unless the team is fine with paying him that salary for his contributions on special teams. Dallas could create $1.3MM in cap savings by cutting him.

Contract information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post.

2016 Cap Outlook: Washington

December 3rd, 2015 at 9:05pm CST by Luke Adams

In addition to evaluating each team’s overall cap situation, we’ll focus in on a few key players who may be candidates to be extended, restructured, or released by their current teams. These lists aren’t comprehensive, and depending on a player’s 2015 performance and health, he could drop off one of these lists – or be added to one – as the season goes on. For now though, these are some players to watch.

Using data from Over The Cap, we’re making our way through NFL teams in order of total salary commitments for 2016. Today’s team is Washington, which currently has the seventh-highest total for its ’16 cap.

Let’s dive in….

Top 10 cap hits for 2016:

Robert Griffin III, QB: $16,155,000
Trent Williams, LT: $10,700,000
Pierre Garcon, WR: $10,200,000
Chris Culliver, CB: $9,250,000
DeSean Jackson, WR: $9,250,000
Jason Hatcher, DL: $8,750,000
Ryan Kerrigan, OLB: $8,450,000
Dashon Goldson, S: $8,000,000
DeAngelo Hall, DB: $5,062,500
Perry Riley, ILB: $5,049,804
Current 2016 cap number for top 51 players: $143,859,037

Washington, like many NFL teams, has a quarterback atop its list of cap commitments for 2016. Unlike most of those other clubs though, Washington’s QB almost certainly won’t be with the team next year, and removing him from the books for ’16 won’t leave any dead money on the cap, since his salary is currently guaranteed for injury only.

Still, releasing Griffin likely won’t be the only cap-clearing move required for Washington in the offseason, since the team’s current starting quarterback isn’t under contract yet for 2016. Depending on how much it costs to re-sign Kirk Cousins, the club could end up using a good chunk of that RGIII money on Cousins instead.

Candidates for extension:

Chris Baker, D
DeSean Jackson, WR

While Cousins is a candidate for an extension, this section focuses on players who are under contract for 2016 already, whose cap numbers could potentially be reduced a little by extending them beyond next season.

Jackson is an interesting case, since his current deal features a 2017 salary, but ’17 is essentially a dummy year, since the contract is set to void after 2016. The speedy wideout has been injured this season, and hasn’t been a huge part of the offense even when he’s been healthy, so perhaps Washington won’t want to invest any additional money in him. But reworking his deal to keep him under contract for an extra couple years could reduce his 2016 cap hit without the team taking on much long-term risk. While there are a number of different ways the club could go with Jackson, I expect he’ll be back for at least one more year, since there will still be $6MM+ in dead money left on his deal.

As for Baker, it doesn’t seem like that long ago that he signed a three-year contract extension, but 2016 will be the final year of that agreement. He’s still young and productive enough to warrant another extension, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see Washington let him play out the final year of his contract before making a decision.

Candidates for restructure:

Chris Culliver, CB
Shawn Lauvao, G

Like center Kory Lichtensteiger, Lauvao opened the year as a starter on Washington’s offensive line, but wasn’t among the league’s top interior linemen, and eventually landed on IR. Both of those players will have cap hits in the $4-5MM range in 2016, which isn’t a significant price to pay for a starting offensive lineman. But those are high prices for backups, so if the club has other options it likes better, it could try to rework both deals — particularly Lauvao’s. A pay cut may also be in play.

Culliver, meanwhile, isn’t going anywhere after signing a long-term free agent contract earlier this year, since his 2016 salary is fully guaranteed. Beyond ’16 though, there’s only $2.5MM in dead money – and no guaranteed salary – left on the pact, so restructuring it to reduce next year’s cap charge wouldn’t put Washington in a bad spot for future seasons.

Candidates for pay cut or release:

Pierre Garcon, WR
Dashon Goldson, S
Robert Griffin III, QB
DeAngelo Hall, DB
Jason Hatcher, DL
Perry Riley, ILB
Andre Roberts, WR

Griffin is the most logical release candidate here, but there’s no shortage of them for Washington, giving the team plenty of flexibility heading into the offseason. If the club needs the cap room, it could take an approach similar to the one taken by the Saints last winter, when New Orleans asked a handful of players to take pay cuts to avoid being released — some accepted those cuts, while others were dropped.

As we weigh the pros and cons for keeping the non-RGIII players on this list, let’s start in the secondary, where Goldson and Hall are the candidates to be cut. The Buccaneers’ willingness to pay a portion of Goldson’s salary allowed Washington to acquire the safety in a trade earlier this year, but with his salary set to increase to a non-guaranteed $7.5MM next year, the team will be less willing to pay up — especially for a player who currently ranks 83rd of 84 qualified safeties, per Pro Football Focus.

Could Hall step into Goldson’s starting safety spot? Maybe, but Washington may prefer to identify a younger, cheaper replacement, rather than counting on a high-priced veteran like Hall to make the transition from cornerback at this stage in his career.

At the wide receiver position, Garcon has posted pedestrian numbers since racking up 113 catches in 2013, and while that can be partially attributed to inconsistent quarterback play, you’d still expect a little more out of a player with a $10MM+ cap hit. The club could create $8MM in cap savings by cutting him, and another $3MM by releasing Roberts, who has caught just 11 balls this season.

Elsewhere, Hatcher and Riley are two players who could return in 2016 if Washington isn’t short on cap space. Neither player has quite lived up to expectations since they signed their current contracts in March 2014, but Hatcher has been decent in the middle, and Riley has looked a bit better in recent weeks. The team would create about $4MM in cap savings by releasing either player, so that will have to be a consideration, even if they ultimately remain on the roster.

Contract information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post.

2016 Cap Outlook: Baltimore Ravens

November 28th, 2015 at 11:40am CST by Luke Adams

In addition to evaluating each team’s overall cap situation, we’ll focus in on a few key players who may be candidates to be extended, restructured, or released by their current teams. These lists aren’t comprehensive, and depending on a player’s 2015 performance and health, he could drop off one of these lists – or be added to one – as the season goes on. For now though, these are some players to watch.

Using data from Over The Cap, we’re making our way through NFL teams in order of total salary commitments for 2016. Today’s team is the Ravens, who currently have the sixth-highest total for their ’16 cap.

Let’s dive in….

Top 10 cap hits for 2016:

Joe Flacco, QB: $28,550,000
Jimmy Smith, CB: $9,600,000
Lardarius Webb, CB: $9,500,000
Eugene Monroe, LT: $8,700,000
Marshal Yanda, RG: $7,985,882
Terrell Suggs, OLB: $7,450,000
Elvis Dumervil, OLB: $7,375,000
Dennis Pitta, TE: $7,200,000
Jeremy Zuttah, C: $4,607,206
Will Hill, S: $4,590,000
Current 2016 cap number for top 51 players: $144,588,978

Flacco’s cap hit for 2016 is so massive compared to the rest of the Ravens’ figures that the next three highest cap numbers combined don’t even match it. There’s little question that Flacco’s deal must be addressed this offseason, but the fact that Baltimore doesn’t have any other eight-digit salaries for 2016 is a plus. It gives the team the flexibility to explore a couple different approaches with Flacco — either reduce his cap charge for 2016 significantly, potentially creating all the space you need for the year, or only reduce it a little, avoiding increasing his future cap numbers too much.

Candidates for extension:

Joe Flacco, QB
Will Hill, S

If he played any other position, Flacco would be a candidate for a restructure, rather than an extension, since he’ll still have three years left on his contract heading into the winter. But with cap hits of $28.55MM, $31.15MM, and $24.75MM, the best way to make the contract manageable in the future for the Ravens is to tack on a couple extra years, spreading a new signing bonus out over the longest stretch possible.

Flacco’s torn ACL will make negotiations a little more interesting this offseason, but we’ve seen quarterbacks return successfully from that injury in the past, and it’s not as if Flacco relies heavily on his ability to run. The veteran signal-caller is currently set to earn a base salary of $18MM next year, so – between guaranteed salary and bonus money – the Ravens will have to exceed that figure on any new deal. It’ll be an interesting situation to watch.

Elsewhere, Hill is on track to earn a fraction of what Flacco will make in 2016, but his performance in the secondary since joining the Ravens has been excellent. He’ll be due for a raise, so it might be tricky for Baltimore to lower his $4.59MM cap number at all, but some creative financing would at least help the team avoid increasing that figure.

Candidates for restructure:

Daryl Smith, ILB
Terrell Suggs, OLB
Lardarius Webb, CB

Out of this trio of players, Webb – who has been solid, but not spectacular this season – looks like the most logical candidate for a restructure — with Jimmy Smith‘s extension set to kick in, I don’t know that the Ravens will want to pay a $5.5MM salary for Webb, whose $9.5MM cap hit projects to be the team’s third-highest. Giving Webb a modest signing bonus, plus the ability to earn that full $5.5MM through bonuses and incentives rather than a guaranteed salary, might make sense for Baltimore.

As for Suggs, he’s 33 years old and will be coming off a torn Achilles, so there’s a good chance he won’t be the same player he was before the injury. But the dead money left on his deal ($8.85MM) outweighs his 2016 cap hit ($7.45MM), so if they think he has something left in the tank, the Ravens will likely explore a restructure rather than considering releasing him.

The third veteran defender listed here, Smith might have the easiest contract to restructure, since it doesn’t feature nearly as much prorated bonus money as Webb’s or Suggs’. In each of the next two seasons, Smith is owed a $3.5MM base salary and has a $4.375MM cap hit. The club may not require the modest savings that restructuring Smith’s contract would provide, but doing so could free up about $1.25MM in space for 2016, without creating major problems for 2017.

Candidates for pay cut or release:

Kyle Arrington, CB
Chris Canty, DE
Matt Elam, S
Justin Forsett, RB
Dennis Pitta, TE
Steve Smith, WR

It’s worth noting that just because a player is a “candidate” to take a pay cut or be released, that certainly doesn’t mean it’ll happen. But it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Pitta avoids that fate — 2015 was his second straight lost season, and his ongoing hip issues make a comeback an uphill battle. Even if the Ravens do want to keep him on the roster, they won’t want him at his $5MM salary, which is non-guaranteed.

Two other offensive playmakers currently on the injured reserve list earned spots on this list, but if Smith wants to continue his playing career, the Ravens will almost certainly welcome him back for the last year of his current contract — he and his $3MM base salary would only be removed from the roster if he decides to retire. Forsett is a good bet to be back as well, but if Javorius Allen excels down the stretch, the Ravens would have to at least briefly think about moving on from the veteran, who will also make a $3MM salary and wasn’t as explosive in 2015 as he was in 2014.

Canty, Arrington, and Elam are all on the books for cap hits between $2-3MM, so cutting them wouldn’t create a ton of savings. Canty has been effective enough that it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Baltimore keep him at his current price for one more year, though Arrington has seen his playing time slashed in recent weeks and may be expendable. Given the extra draft picks they always have at their disposal, the Ravens could identify younger, cheaper replacements for those veterans.

Elam, meanwhile, is a former first-round pick entering the fourth year of his rookie contract, but he struggled in his first two seasons and missed his third with a bicep injury. While he’s cheap enough that the Ravens could keep him around for one more season and turn down his fifth-year option for 2017, he has been surpassed on the depth chart, and his upside is dwindling.

Contract information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post.

2016 Cap Outlook: Pittsburgh Steelers

November 20th, 2015 at 3:03pm CST by Luke Adams

Through the 2015 NFL season, Pro Football Rumors will be looking ahead to the 2016 offseason, gauging the salary cap situation for each of the league’s 32 teams. The cap for 2016 hasn’t been set yet, but we can still assess the salary commitments made by a club and determine whether or not that club will be in good financial shape going forward.

In addition to evaluating each team’s overall cap situation, we’ll focus in on a few key players who may be candidates to be extended, restructured, or released by their current teams. These lists aren’t comprehensive, and depending on a player’s 2015 performance and health, he could drop off one of these lists – or be added to one – as the season goes on. For now though, these are some players to watch.

Using data from Over The Cap, we’re making our way through NFL teams in order of total salary commitments for 2016. Today’s team is the Steelers, who currently have the fifth-highest total for their ’16 cap.

Let’s dive in….

Top 10 cap hits for 2016:

Ben Roethlisberger, QB: $23,950,000
Lawrence Timmons, LB: $15,131,250
Antonio Brown, WR: $12,370,833
Maurkice Pouncey, C: $10,551,000
Cameron Heyward, DE: $10,400,000
David DeCastro, G: $8,070,000
Heath Miller, TE: $7,181,668
Mike Mitchell, S: $6,763,750
Marcus Gilbert, RT: $6,461,000
Cortez Allen, CB: $5,750,000
Current 2016 cap number for top 51 players: $144,927,485

With a new contract extension in hand, Roethlisberger will continue to be the Steelers’ highest-paid player – with the club’s largest cap number – going forward. But he’s hardly the only veteran player who has a substantial cap hit in 2016. Timmons’ figure is perhaps the most interesting, since it’s extremely rare to see a cap charge get that high for any inside linebacker. He’s followed by three other players with eight-digit cap numbers, two of whom signed new contract extensions within the last year and a half.

Candidates for extension:

Antonio Brown, WR
David DeCastro, G

Brown had hoped to sign a new contract this past offseason, but ultimately settled for a reworking of his deal that saw some money moved from 2016 to 2015. It’s not a surprise that the Steelers were unwilling to do anything more drastic, since the pact runs through the 2017 season, and extending it so early would set an unwanted precedent. However, the two sides could revisit talks this coming offseason.

Brown’s current contract calls for him to make a combined $15MM in base salary in 2016 and 2017, which is far below the salaries that recently-signed wideouts like Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, and T.Y. Hilton are getting. So Brown should be in line for a nice raise. Still, depending on how the Steelers structure an offer, an extension could significantly reduce Brown’s 2016 cap number from its current $12.37MM figure.

As for DeCastro, he has a fifth-year option keeping him under contract with Pittsburgh for the 2016 season. DeCastro is a steady, reliable presence in the middle of the Steelers’ offensive line, but the team will likely want to bring down his cap charge for next year a little, since it currently exceeds $8MM. If DeCastro were to sign a long-term extension, the annual average would likely be a little less than that, and the new deal could be backloaded, reducing his impact on the 2016 cap.

Candidates for restructure:

Marcus Gilbert, RT
Cameron Heyward, DE
Mike Mitchell, S
Maurkice Pouncey, C
Ben Roethlisberger, QB

Most of the players listed here have contracts with similar structures — Gilbert, Heyward, Mitchell, and Pouncey will all see their cap hits increase significantly in 2016 and remain fairly high in future seasons, so if the Steelers choose to restructure any of those deals, they could be creating problems down the road. I wouldn’t expect the club to want – or need – to restructure all four players, but one or two of them could be addressed if cap room start getting tight.

Heyward and Pouncey could be the top candidates for restructures, for a couple of reasons. For one, their cap charges are a few million dollars larger than Gilbert’s or Mitchell’s, so restructuring those deals will make a bigger impact. Additionally, their contracts through 2019 or 2020, meaning a signing bonus can be spread across several seasons without affecting a single year too negatively.

Roethlisberger’s contract may be the most logical one for a restructure though — his $23.95MM cap hit for 2016 is higher than his cap numbers in 2017, 2018, or 2019, so moving some money to those later years isn’t quite so risky, and it could create massive flexibility in the short term, if necessary.

Candidates for pay cut or release:

Cortez Allen, CB
Jacoby Jones, WR
Heath Miller, TE
Arthur Moats, OLB
Lawrence Timmons, LB

It’s hard to imagine the Steelers releasing either Miller or Timmons, who have been with the franchise since 2005 and 2007, respectively. Nonetheless, the team will have to take a hard look at both players’ contracts, which expire at the end of the 2016 season.

Miller hasn’t been quite as productive this year as he has been in some recent seasons, though his slightly reduced numbers could be a result of the quarterback carousel that began when Roethlisberger was injured. Timmons, meanwhile, battled a toe injury during the preseason, and hasn’t been as effective in the middle of the defense as he has been in years past. Pittsburgh could create $4MM in cap savings by cutting Miller, and nearly $9MM by cutting Timmons, though pay cuts or extensions are probably more likely.

Allen and Jones, on the other hand, look like obvious release candidates, though Jones’ deal is much easier to shed than Allen’s, which will still include $4MM+ in dead money in 2016. Given how little the Steelers have gotten out of the cornerback since he signed that extension with the club, it’s hard to see how they can keep him at a $4MM base salary though, so that deal will need to be addressed in some form. For his part, Jones would have to have a huge second half in 2015 to return on his current $3MM salary for 2016.

Moats’ case falls somewhere in the middle. His $2.5MM base salary for next season isn’t exorbitant, and he has a pair of sacks for the Steelers this year. But he’s not exactly irreplaceable, and if Pittsburgh plans to address the outside linebacker position in the draft, there will be players that could replicate Moats’ production at a lesser cost. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the veteran linebacker return on his current contract, but the Steelers should have to at least consider making a move.

Contract information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post.

2016 Cap Outlook: New England Patriots

November 6th, 2015 at 12:02pm CST by Luke Adams

In addition to evaluating each team’s overall cap situation, we’ll focus in on a few key players who may be candidates to be extended, restructured, or released by their current teams. These lists aren’t comprehensive, and depending on a player’s 2015 performance and health, he could drop off one of these lists – or be added to one – as the season goes on. For now though, these are some players to watch.

Using data from Over The Cap, we’re making our way through the 32 NFL teams in order of total salary commitments for 2016. Today’s team is the Patriots, who currently have the third-most money on their ’16 cap.

Let’s dive in….

Top 10 cap hits for 2016:

Tom Brady, QB: $15,000,000
Jerod Mayo, LB: $11,400,000
Nate Solder, LT: $10,697,666
Devin McCourty, S: $8,000,000
Chandler Jones, DE: $7,799,000
Dont’a Hightower, LB: $7,751,000
Jabaal Sheard, DE/OLB: $7,000,000
Danny Amendola, WR: $6,866,666
Rob Gronkowski, TE: $6,650,000
Sebastian Vollmer, RT: $6,270,834
Current 2016 cap number for top 51 players: $145,244,259

Much has been made of Brady’s team-friendly contract structure, and the fact that he has a 2016 cap hit of $15MM rather than $25MM certainly allows the team the flexibility to spend a little more elsewhere. Despite Brady’s relatively modest cap number, New England still has the fourth-highest total of cap commitments for 2016, since the club has plenty of moderately priced players on its books. In total, the Pats are carrying 10 cap charges of $6MM+, and 14 of $4MM+.

Candidates for extension:

Marcus Cannon, T
Dont’a Hightower, LB
Chandler Jones, DE
Brandon LaFell, WR
Rob Ninkovich, DE
Jabaal Sheard, OLB
Sebastian Vollmer, RT

This list of Patriots extension candidates is far from complete, but even so, it’s still a lengthy one, with plenty of players set to have their contracts expire after the 2016 season.

The club may ultimately have to decide between Cannon and Vollmer, rather than extending both. After Nate Solder went down with a season-ending biceps injury in October though, both tackles have stepped up and performed well, proving their worth. Vollmer has the larger 2016 cap charge, at $6.27MM, so if New England wants to extend one of the two, it could be easier to do a deal with him to reduce that number.

On the other side of the ball, Hightower and Jones both had their fifth-year options for 2016 picked up earlier this year, and have played very well since then, making them logical extension candidates. Jones, in particular, is someone New England will look to lock up long-term, given his contributions to the club’s pass rush — he’s tied for the NFL lead with 8.5 sacks so far this season. On the other side of the defensive line, Ninkovich isn’t quite the force that Jones is, but he recorded eight sacks in each of his last three seasons, so if the price is right, the Pats would presumably like to have him back.

LaFell and Sheard, meanwhile, are hardly slam-dunk extension candidates — depending on how the rest of this season plays out, it’s possible that both players are released in the offseason, since doing so would create a total of $7.8MM in cap savings.

Still, both players have produced when they’ve been healthy, with Sheard racking up four sacks in five games this season, while LaFell totaled 953 receiving yards and seven TDs a year ago. Sheard has been sidelined by an ankle injury in recent weeks, and LaFell has struggled with drops since coming off the PUP list, so we’ll probably have to wait and see how they finish the season to get an idea of whether the Pats will be more inclined to extend or release them this winter. The team may also simply let them play out the final year of their respective contracts in 2016.

Candidates for restructure:

Nate Solder, LT

Prior to suffering his season-ending biceps injury, Solder signed a modest two-year extension that will keep him under contract through the 2017 campaign. That new deal ensures that there would be plenty of dead money on the Patriots’ cap if they were to cut him in 2016 and rely on Vollmer and Cannon, so Solder figures to return to his starting role on the offensive line if and when he makes a full recovery.

Having said that, his $10.7MM cap hit for 2016 is the third-highest on the roster, so restructuring his deal to lower that number is a possibility if the Pats need some wiggle room next season. If that flexibility isn’t required, the club will probably keep Solder’s contract as is, to avoid pushing more potential dead money to the 2017 season.

Candidates for pay cut or release:

Danny Amendola, WR
Scott Chandler, TE
Jerod Mayo, LB

Amendola has been effective for the Patriots, but with several other receivers, tight ends, and running backs vying for targets, the veteran wideout isn’t always a consistent part of the passing game — although he has been targeted at least nine times in two games this season, he has just 14 total targets in his other five games. He’ll have two years left on his contract after this season, but with a base salary of $5MM owed to him in 2016, the Pats could create more than $4MM in cap savings by cutting him.

Chandler, like Amendola, is something of a luxury in the passing game for the Patriots. He only plays about a third of the team’s offensive snaps, and has been targeted 15 times through seven games. He’s a useful piece, but New England may be inclined to free up $2MM+ in cap room by releasing him and identifying a younger, cheaper alternative.

As for Mayo, he currently projects to have the Patriots’ second-highest cap number in 2016 behind Brady. He won’t be back at that price. The final two seasons of Mayo’s contract are option years, and the Pats figure to turn down their option this winter, allowing the linebacker to hit free agency unless he’s able to work out a significantly-reduced salary to remain in New England.

Contract information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post.

2016 Cap Outlook: Miami Dolphins

October 23rd, 2015 at 1:58pm CST by Luke Adams

In addition to evaluating each team’s overall cap situation, we’ll focus in on a few key players who may be candidates to be extended, restructured, or released by their current teams. These lists aren’t comprehensive, and depending on a player’s 2015 performance and health, he could drop off one of these lists – or be added to one – as the season goes on. For now though, these are some players to watch.

Using data from Over The Cap, we’re making our way through the 32 NFL teams in order of total salary commitments for 2016. Today’s team is the Dolphins, who currently have the third-most money on their ’16 cap.

Let’s dive in….

Top 10 cap hits for 2016:

Ndamukong Suh, DT: $28,600,000
Ryan Tannehill, QB: $11,640,000
Branden Albert, LT: $10,150,000
Mike Pouncey, C: $10,025,000
Cameron Wake, DE: $9,800,000
Jordan Cameron, TE: $9,500,000
Brent Grimes, CB: $9,500,000
Reshad Jones, S: $8,202,942
Dion Jordan, DE: $6,202,377
Greg Jennings, WR: $5,500,000
Current 2016 cap number for top 51 players: $146,763,779

Nestled between Joe Flacco‘s $28.55MM cap charge and Drew Brees‘ staggering $30MM cap hit, Suh’s number for 2016 is one of the largest in the league, and contributes significantly to the Dolphins’ overall total for next year. Suh currently represents nearly 20% of Miami’s cap number for 2016, which is a huge percentage for any player, and particularly for a non-quarterback.

The rest of the Dolphins’ top 10 is populated by a combination of core contributors and players who may not be back on the roster next season, with Tannehill at the top of the list of players not named Suh. Miami isn’t necessarily locked into Tannehill as its long-term quarterback, but the team is unlikely to make a change before the end of the 2016 season — the 27-year-old’s salary for next year is fully guaranteed, and his cap charge doesn’t increase significantly until 2017, when it jumps over $20MM.

Candidates for extension:

Brent Grimes, CB
Cameron Wake, DE

Grimes and Wake are arguably the Dolphins’ two best defensive players besides Suh, and they’ll see their current contracts expire after the 2017 and 2016 seasons, respectively, which should make them extension candidates. However, it’s not clear how much longer Miami may want to keep the duo around. Grimes is 32 years old and Wake will turn 34 in January, so it’s not as if the team will be eager to tack on another three or four years to either player’s contract.

Still, both players are still very productive, and there’s some room to maneuver if the Dolphins want to lock either of them up to new deals. It probably makes sense to wait on Grimes, who remains under contract for two full years after 2015, but extending Wake’s pact by a year or two would allow Miami to reduce his $9.8MM cap charge for 2016 — the club would just have to avoid taking on a ton of dead money for any new years, since there’s certainly no guarantee Wake continues to rack up Pro Bowl appearances as he enters his mid-thirties.

Candidates for restructure:

Ndamukong Suh, DT
Mike Pouncey, C

As noted above, Suh’s $28.6MM cap number for 2016 is begging for a restructure, especially since his charge for 2017 is just $15.1MM — a pittance, by comparison. Despite the fact that Suh has yet to make the impact in South Beach that his new team expected, he’s not going anywhere anytime soon with so much guaranteed money left on his deal, so a restructure looks like the only logical move if the Dolphins need to reduce his cap hit.

As for Pouncey, he’s another player who signed a new contract this past spring that looks like a strong candidate for a restructuring. Like Suh’s deal, Pouncey’s pact features its largest cap number in year two, giving Miami the flexibility to rework it and spread some of that money out from 2017 to 2020, if necessary.

Candidates for pay cut or release:

Branden Albert, T
Jordan Cameron, TE
Dion Jordan, DE
Greg Jennings, WR
Brice McCain, CB

Of the players listed here, Albert is probably the least likely to be released by the Dolphins within the next few months. After all, it was only about a year and a half ago that he landed one of the top free agent contracts of 2014, signing a five-year, $47MM deal with Miami.

Still, the former Chiefs tackle has had problems staying healthy. After missing four games in his last year in Kansas City, Albert missed another seven in his first season with the Dolphins, and has been sidelined for two more this season. Assuming he finishes the 2015 campaign strong and heads into the offseason with a clean bill of health, Albert should be back in Miami in 2016, but if he continues to be plagued by injuries, that’s not quite a certainty. The 30-year-old has cap numbers exceeding $10MM in each season from 2016 to 2018, with no guaranteed salary left on his contract in those years.

Cameron and Jennings each signed two-year deals with the Dolphins that included large cap hits in year two, reducing the chances of them playing more than one year each in Miami. So far, they haven’t been a huge part of the Dolphins’ offense, combining for just 23 receptions in five games, and they’ll take up a total of $14MM on the 2016 cap if they stick around.

McCain, meanwhile, has a reasonable $3.5MM cap number for next year, but he hasn’t exactly impressed during the first few weeks of the 2015 season, and the Dolphins could create $2.5MM in cap savings by cutting ties with him in the offseason. As for Jordan, a draft bust selected by former GM Jeff Ireland, the club currently isn’t paying his full salary while he remains stashed on the reserve/suspended list — otherwise, it’s unlikely he’d still be a Dolphin. Jordan’s off-field issues and on-field ineffectiveness have all but guaranteed he’s not a part of Miami’s future.

Contract information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post.

2016 Cap Outlook: Buffalo Bills

October 8th, 2015 at 10:25am CST by Luke Adams

In addition to evaluating each team’s overall cap situation, we’ll focus in on a few key players who may be candidates to be extended, restructured, or released by their current teams. These lists aren’t comprehensive, and depending on a player’s 2015 performance and health, he could drop off one of these lists – or be added to one – as the season goes on. For now though, these are some players to watch.

Using data from Over The Cap, we’re making our way through the 32 NFL teams in order of total salary commitments for 2016. Today’s team is the Bills, who currently have the second-most money on their ’16 cap.

Let’s dive in….

Top 10 cap hits for 2016:

Mario Williams, DE: $19,900,000
Marcell Dareus, DT: $14,550,000
Charles Clay, TE: $13,500,000
Stephon Gilmore, CB: $11,082,000
Kyle Williams, DT: $8,000,000
LeSean McCoy, RB: $7,675,000
Jerry Hughes, DE: $7,575,000
Aaron Williams, S: $6,100,000
Eric Wood, C: $6,075,000
Sammy Watkins, WR: $5,436,983
Current 2016 cap number for top 51 players: $149,880,615

The Bills’ cap commitments are incredibly defense-heavy going forward, with all four of their defensive linemen ranking among their top seven cap hits for 2016. In addition to those four players, two defensive backs – Gilmore and Aaron Williams – are in the top eight.

Without a franchise quarterback to take up a huge chunk of cap space, the Bills can afford to invest significant money on the defensive side of the ball, as well as devoting cap room to traditionally less expensive offensive positions like tight end, running back, and center. But even without a pricey quarterback, Buffalo finds itself with nearly $150MM cap commitments for next season, meaning moves will need to be made for the team to function in free agency and in the draft.

Candidates for extension:

Stephon Gilmore, CB
Leodis McKelvin, CB

While left tackle Cordy Glenn is perhaps the most noteworthy extension candidate on the Bills’ roster, signing him to a new contract wouldn’t help the team’s cap situation, since he’s not currently under contract at all for 2016 — a new deal for Glenn would only add to the club’s cap commitments for next year, rather than reducing them.

That’s not the case for Gilmore, who is currently on the books next year for a fifth-year option that exceeds $11MM. Gilmore has been a solid player for the Bills, but it seems highly unlikely that the club will want to carry him at that price. The most logical solution would be a multiyear contract that gives the 25-year-old cornerback a little more long-term security while perhaps slicing his 2016 cap number in half.

As for McKelvin, his future in Buffalo relies on how he comes back from an ankle injury. McKelvin, who remains on the non-football injury list for now, is entering his early-30s, and his contract expires after the 2016 season. His $4.9MM cap charge for next year isn’t unwieldy, but if the Bills determine he won’t be the same player he was before the injury, he’s a candidate to be released — if he comes back strong, the Bills could reduce his ’16 cap number by adding a couple years to his contract.

Candidates for restructure:

Charles Clay, TE
LeSean McCoy, RB
Mario Williams, DE

A pair of these players just signed new contracts with the Bills this offseason, and Clay’s looks like it was practically designed to be restructured — his cap hit spikes to $13.5MM next season, but doesn’t exceed $6.5MM in any of the subsequent three years.. Of course, the sizable second-year cap charge was initially designed to prevent Miami from matching Buffalo’s offer sheet, but reducing that figure and smoothing out Clay’s cap hits a little should help out the Bills in 2016.

McCoy’s new extension doesn’t include a similar year-two spike, and at $7.675MM, his 2016 cap number is manageable. But he got off to a slow start in Buffalo, and is now sidelined with a hamstring injury. At age 27, McCoy should still have plenty of gas in the tank, but it’ll be interesting to see how the Bills move forward at the running back position if Karlos Williams continues to impress. Through four weeks, the rookie has averaged 5.4 yards per carry, compared to 3.4 for McCoy.

Elsewhere, Mario Williams remains a key contributor to the team’s pass rush and shouldn’t be in danger of losing his roster spot, despite the rising cost of the defensive line. But at $19.9MM, his cap number is one of the largest in the NFL, so the Bills may try to find a way to cut it down a little.

Candidates for pay cut or release:

Dan Carpenter, K
E.J. Manuel, QB
Kyle Williams, DT
Eric Wood, C

Manuel has already lost his starting job in Buffalo, and Carpenter could lose his soon. If Billy Cundiff assumes the team’s kicking duties within the next few weeks, Carpenter is unlikely to remain on the roster into the offseason, and even if he holds onto his job, the Bills could explore a cheaper alternative in 2016. Manuel, on the other hand, should still be with the team at season’s end, as he nears the final year of his rookie contract.

At this point, it’s a virtual certainty that the Bills won’t exercise their 2017 fifth-year option on Manuel, but would they keep him for 2016? At about $2.827MM, Manuel doesn’t cost a ton for a backup. Still, it’s not clear if Rex Ryan and the team’s new coaching staff has much confidence in the former first-rounder, even as the club’s No. 2 option, so he’s no lock to make the 2016 roster.

As for Williams and Wood, both players have been productive veterans over the years in Buffalo — particularly Williams, who has been a Pro Bowler in each of the last three seasons. It’s possible that the team will simply keep both players on its roster without adjusting their contracts, but at $8MM and $6MM respectively, neither player will be cheap. If they struggle at all down the stretch and the Bills have the opportunity to bring in inexpensive young talent at their positions next year, the veterans may be asked to rework their deals in order to stick around.

Contract information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post.

2016 Cap Outlook: New Orleans Saints

September 25th, 2015 at 1:41pm CST by Luke Adams

In addition to evaluating each team’s overall cap situation, we’ll focus in on a few key players who may be candidates to be extended, restructured, or released by their current teams. These lists aren’t comprehensive, and depending on a player’s 2015 performance and health, he could drop off one of these lists – or be added to one – as the season goes on. For now though, these are some players to watch.

Using data from Over The Cap, we’ll make our way through the 32 NFL teams in order of total salary commitments for 2016. As such, we’ll get underway today by examining the Saints, who have the most salary committed to ’16 for now.

Let’s dive in….

Top 10 cap hits for 2016:

Drew Brees, QB: $27,400,000
Cameron Jordan, DE: $12,800,000
Junior Galette, OLB: $12,100,000 (dead money)
Jairus Byrd, S: $10,900,000
Jahri Evans, G: $8,200,000
Keenan Lewis, CB: $6,350,000
Brandon Browner, CB: $6,300,000
Max Unger, C: $6,000,000
Marques Colston, WR: $5,900,000
Dannell Ellerbe, LB: $5,900,000
Current 2016 cap number for top 51 players: $151,532,625

Over the Cap’s data assumes that 2016’s cap will sit at exactly $150MM, which is a reasonable estimate for now, though I’d expect the actual number to be even higher. Using that figure, the Saints are the only team already projected to be over the cap, with an excess of about $1.532MM for just 41 players.

Part of the problem for the Saints is the amount of dead money on the 2016 cap — even before making next year’s cuts, the club is already carrying nearly $15MM in dead money, with the majority of that coming from Galette’s contract. New Orleans parted ways Galette so soon after he signed a new extension that he counts for $5.45MM in dead money against the team’s 2015 cap, plus another $12.1MM against the 2016 cap. That’s not good.

Candidates for extension:

Terron Armstead, LT
Drew Brees, QB

While the Saints would probably love to lock up Armstead, a 2013 draft pick that has worked out splendidly for the team so far, doing so in 2016 as he enters the final year of his rookie contract could be tricky. Extensions can often reduce a player’s current-year cap number, pushing the larger cap hits to later years of the new contract, but Armstead’s 2016 cap hit will be just $859K. If he gets extended and gets any sort of signing bonus, his ’16 cap number will increase, not decrease.

That’s what makes it so important that the Saints figure something out for Brees. The veteran quarterback is already battling a shoulder injury this season and will turn 37 in January, but he has still led the league in passing yards in three of the last four seasons, and has earned seven consecutive Pro Bowl nods. Does the club intend to keep him as its starting quarterback beyond 2016? If so, he needs to be extended in order to reduce his massive cap hit.

Currently, Brees is set to earn a $19.75MM base salary in ’16, with a cap hit of $27.4MM. With, say, a two-year extension, those figures could be massively reduced, with Brees getting a decent chunk of guaranteed money and some longer-term security, giving him a chance to finish his career with the Saints.

Depending on how the 2015 season plays out, we might be talking about Brees as a release candidate rather than an extension candidate, or New Orleans simply may simply let his contract expire and move onto a younger, cheaper signal-caller for 2017. Whatever the team chooses, Brees represents a key figure in making sure the cap situation doesn’t get any messier moving forward.

Candidates for restructure:

Jairus Byrd, S
Jahri Evans, G
Cameron Jordan, DE
Thomas Morstead, P

Byrd and Evans had their contracts reworked this past offseason, and if the team intends to keep them beyond 2016, those deals may have to be tweaked again. Byrd’s cap hit jumps up to $10.9MM next year, and there’s still so much bonus money on it that it doesn’t really make sense for New Orleans to release him unless he’s designated as a post-June 1 cut.

As for Evans, he’s in a similar boat — the Saints are extremely unlikely to keep him at his current $8.2MM cap number for 2016, but dropping him would result in $7.1MM in dead money, so a restructure or a pay cut seems more likely at the moment.

Jordan’s contracts looked like a candidate to be restructured in 2016 from the moment it was signed, since he has a $6MM roster bonus due next year. It would be shocking if that isn’t turned into a signing bonus, prorating it over five years and creating $4.8MM in cap space for ’16.

Meanwhile, as effective as Morstead has been in New Orleans, no cap-strapped team should be carrying a punter with a cap charge of $4.45MM, so that will certainly be reduced in some way.

Candidates for pay cut or release:

Marques Colston, WR
Dannell Ellerbe, LB
David Hawthorne, LB
Max Unger, C

Colston and Hawthrone were viewed as release candidates for the Saints this past offseason before they agreed to take pay cuts. The same could be said for Ellerbe and Unger before they were traded by the Dolphins and Seahawks, respectively. All four players earned another year on their current contracts by taking a pay cut or getting traded, but the reprieve could be brief.

All four players are slated to count against the cap for at least $4.5MM next season, with Unger at $6MM, and Colston and Ellerbe not far behind. Once again, their 2015 performances will play a significant role in what the Saints decide to do with them in the offseason, but it’s unlikely that any of these veterans still has his best days ahead of him.

Contract information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post.