Month: November 2024

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Latest On Reggie Wayne

Last week, Reggie Wayne reiterated that he wants to play at least one more season in the NFL, suggesting that a few teams had been in touch with him this offseason. At the time, Dave Furst of WRTV-6 in Indianapolis tweeted that the Patriots, Ravens, Texans, and Packers were showing some interest in the veteran wideout, with the Broncos having backed off.

A pair of reports today, however, have reduced that list of potential suitors by half. According to Aaron Wilson of the Baltimore Sun, the Ravens are not expected to pursue Wayne, given his age and the presence of another 36-year-old wideout – Steve Smith Sr. – on the roster. Baltimore doesn’t appear to be in the market for receiving help in general, according to Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com, who tweets that the club also isn’t likely to go after the recently-waived Ace Sanders.

Meanwhile, John McClain of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link) reports that the Texans aren’t interested in Wayne either. Houston lost its longtime No. 1 receiver Andre Johnson to the Colts earlier this offseason, so it would be somewhat fitting for the Texans to land Wayne, but it doesn’t appear that will happen.

Wayne has said he’s healthy after playing through a triceps injury last year, and his 2014 numbers indicate he can still be productive. But the deep wide receiver draft classes in 2014 and 2015 have dampened interest around the league in veterans like Wayne, tweets Charles Robinson of Yahoo! Sports. In Robinson’s view, the former Colt will likely have to wait for players to start getting hurt in training camp before he signs somewhere.

Greg Hardy Still Undecided On Lawsuit

It has been 10 days since Greg Hardy‘s suspension was officially reduced from 10 games to four games, and it has been five days since we heard that a decision from Hardy’s camp on whether or not to file a lawsuit was coming “any time now.” So far though, there’s been no word on Hardy’s decision. A source with knowledge of the situation tells Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk that the Cowboys defensive end is still waiting on the final recommendation from the NFL Players Association.

Before the ruling on Hardy’s appeal, at least one report indicated that Hardy, agent Drew Rosenhaus, and the NFLPA intended to pursue legal action if the suspension was for more than two games, since that was the standard penalty established by the NFL’s old personal conduct policy for such an incident. In upholding a four-game ban, arbitrator Harold Henderson split the different between the old policy and the new one, which calls for at least a six-game suspension.

Still, as Florio points out, it wouldn’t be a great look for the NFLPA to take the league to court over a suspension that’s already viewed as a fairly lenient penalty for a domestic incident like Hardy’s. Additionally, there’s no guarantee at this point that the case would be resolved before the conclusion of the second week of the regular season, so Hardy may have to seek a preliminary injunction to get on the field in the meantime, risking the possibility of serving the suspension during more crucial games later in the year.

I expect we’ll get a decision from Hardy and his camp within the next few days, before players report to training camp later this month.

Extension Candidate: Nick Foles

Quarterback Nick Foles burst on the scene as a member of the Eagles in 2013, appearing in 13 games and totaling league bests in yards per attempt (9.12) and and rating (119.2 rating) on the strength of an astounding 27:2 touchdown:interception ratio. As a result, expectations with Foles were sky high entering last year, but he missed half the season because of a broken collarbone and his numbers took a significant step back (6.96 YPA, 13 TDs, 10 INTs and an 81.4 rating).

Eagles coach and football czar Chip Kelly decided Foles wasn’t an ideal fit for his offense, so he traded the 26-year-old to the NFL: St. Louis Rams-Press ConferenceRams in a deal involving draft picks and, more importantly, Sam Bradford – another QB who has battled inconsistency during his career – earlier this offseason.

In St. Louis, Foles will try to rebound from a mediocre 2014, give the Rams their first taste of consistently above-average QB play since Marc Bulger’s heyday nearly a decade ago, and help the team break its 10-year playoff drought. If Foles accomplishes those things – or, at the very least, reestablishes himself as a legit starter – he’ll be in line to cash in by next offseason as a free agent. There’s a chance it could happen before then, though, as the three-year veteran and the Rams have both expressed interest in a contract extension. Head coach Jeff Fisher acknowledged discussions on a new deal, USA Today’s Howard Balzer tweeted in June, after NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport reported (via Twitter) that the initial talks between the two sides would “ramp up” prior to the season. Foles has already stated both a fondness for St. Louis and a desire to remain there, but noted that his agent would handle contract negotiations, ESPN’s Nick Wagoner tweeted last month.

Given the fact that he has put up less-than-stellar numbers in two of three seasons, it would be a gamble for the Rams to give Foles an extension prior to ever seeing him throw a pass in their uniform. But, considering how important quarterbacks are and how badly Rams QBs have struggled during their playoff drought, it might be a worthwhile risk for general manager Les Snead to lock up Foles now instead of waiting and possibly seeing his price rise exponentially thanks to a bounce-back season.

The question is: How much is it going to cost for the Rams to keep Foles long term? Wagoner took a look at the issue earlier this month and concluded that the Bengals’ Andy Dalton could be used as a comparable for a hypothetical Foles contract.

Dalton signed a six-year extension worth up to $115MM (with a guaranteed $17MM, which has already been paid out) last summer. At the time, Dalton had three things in common with present-day Foles: three years’ experience, one Pro Bowl appearance, and career-best outputs in 2013. In terms of counting stats, Dalton – unlike Foles – had three straight seasons of at least 3,300 yards, including a 4,200-plus-yard campaign in 2013, three consecutive years of 20-plus touchdown passes (33 in ’13) and quarterbacked three playoff teams in a row. Incidentally, Dalton and Foles were one spot apart in Pro Football Focus’ ranking system for QBs in ’13 (Dalton was 16th, Foles 17th – subscription required).

Foles hasn’t accomplished enough to earn a deal in Dalton’s neighborhood in terms of total value, but Dalton’s contract isn’t as enormous as it looks. Given the fact that Bengals have already paid Dalton his guaranteed money, his deal isn’t an anvil going forward. That allows the Bengals to evaluate Dalton on a year-to-year basis and decide whether to continue on with him. Wagoner notes that a similar structure would make sense for the Rams on a hypothetical Foles deal.

As far as length, annual value and guarantees go, Wagoner wrote that something in the range of $12MM to $14MM per annum for four years (with roughly $20MM in guarantees) might get an extension done. If Foles signs a contract in that vicinity and pans out, he’d be a steal for the Rams. Those financial numbers would be relatively modest for a solid starter, as the yearly salary and total guaranteed money would place just inside the top 20 among today’s QBs, according to Over The Cap. For Foles’ part, accepting a contract along those lines would allow him to secure himself financially now and, if he fares well, give him another crack at a hefty payday in a few years.

There would be risk on both sides if they were to strike a deal, clearly. If the two are realistic about Foles’ worth, though, the reward should outweigh any wariness.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extra Points: Rivers, Browner, Brady, Lions

The next year might be a time of major transition for the Chargers, who will be able to break their lease at season’s end and leave San Diego – their home since 1961 – potentially for Carson, Calif. Further, 11-year Charger and six-time Pro Bowl quarterback Philip Rivers is entering the final season of his contract and could conceivably be under center for another organization 12 months from now. Rivers has started every Chargers game since 2006, playoffs included, and been one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks during that span. However, the 33-year-old hasn’t shown much urgency in getting a long-term deal done with the Bolts, writes the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Michael Gehlken. Regardless of what happens with the Chargers, then, Rivers’ days as a San Diego institution may be winding down.

Here’s more from around the NFL:

  • Former Seahawks cornerback Brandon Browner said Sunday at Richard Sherman‘s celebrity softball game that he’d like to return to Seattle when his contract is up, per Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times (Twitter link). If Browner was serious, the timing of his comment is odd, as he recently joined the Saints on a three-year deal during free agency. Browner, who spent 2011-13 with the Seahawks, was a member of the Super Bowl-winning Patriots last season.
  • It’s been almost a month since Tom Brady‘s Deflategate appeal hearing, yet no ruling has come down. If Brady’s four-game suspension isn’t overturned, it could lead to a lawsuit against the league. However, there may be behind-the-scenes negotiations going on in hopes of preventing that, per Lorenzo Reyes of USA Today “I do think they’re negotiating,” said Jodi Balsam, who was the league’s counsel for operations and litigation from 1994-2002 and its counsel for football operations from 2002-2007.  “They may be back-channel conversations, but what the NFL wants is to get an implicit agreement from Brady’s people that a reduction in the number of suspended games would resolve the issue and put the brakes on any further litigation.”
  • The Lions’ offense is getting to work prior to training camp, tweets ESPN’s Michael Rothstein, who deduced from tight end Joseph Fauria‘s Instagram that he and some teammates are gathering in Atlanta to run routes. Quarterback Matthew Stafford said during the spring that members of Detroit’s offense would look to get some pre-camp work in, according to Rothstein (Twitter link), and it appears to be happening.

2015 Release Candidates: NFC South

Most clubs have fairly set rosters at this point, as OTA, minicamp, and preseason performances won’t do much to alter roster composition. The majority of key releases came in March, but there are still several scenarios where certain contributors could lose their roster spot in the coming months. For the most part, we’ll focus on situations where the cap savings would be in excess of $1MM.

Because free agency has already passed, financial ramifications won’t play a huge role in these decisions; there aren’t a ton of high-profile free agents on which to spend that saved money, so these calls will mostly be made based on performance. However, any cap space saved through these potential releases could be rolled over into 2016, so that’s something clubs have to consider.

We’ve already looked at the AFC EastNFC East, AFC NorthNFC North, and AFC South, so let’s dive into the NFC South…

Atlanta Falcons:

  • Jonathan Babineaux, DT: The Falcons have accumulated quite a bit of defensive line depth over the past few years, signing Tyson Jackson, Paul Soliai, Adrian Clayborn, and O’Brien Schofield and using draft picks on Vic Beasley, Ra’Shede Hageman, and Grady Jarrett, as well as re-signing Kroy Biermann earlier this year. The lone constant has been the 34-year-old Babineaux, who has been with Atlanta since being selected in the second round of the 2005 draft. Given his age, the club’s newfound depth at his position, and the fact that the Falcons could save nearly $3MM by cutting him, he sounds like an ideal candidate for release, right? However, new head coach Dan Quinn likes to use a rotation along his defensive line, and more importantly, Babineaux was pretty good last year, grading as the league’s No. 28 defensive tackle and rushing the passer quite effectively, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Prediction: not released.

Carolina Panthers:

  • Jerricho Cotchery, WR: Spending 70% of his time in the slot last season, Cotchery nearly replicated his reception and yardage statistics from the year prior, catching 48 balls for 480 yards, but his touchdown numbers lagged far behind, as he scored just once as compared to 10 times in 2014 with the Steelers. The Panthers invested a second-round pick in Michigan receiver Devin Funchess, and the club likely hopes that he’ll ascend to the starting lineup immediately, joining last year’s first-rounder Kelvin Benjamin. Free agent addition Ted Ginn Jr. figures to take some of Cotchery’s snaps in the slot, and other than Ginn Jr., Carolina is going with at youth movement at receiver, with Jarrett Boykin, Mike Brown, and Stephen Hill fighting for playing time. Cotchery isn’t a bad player, but he doesn’t seem to fit with the team’s roster construction, and the Panthers can save $1.5MM by cutting him. Prediction: released.
  • Roman Harper, S: Harper, 32, started all 16 games for the Panthers last season, posting 41 tackles and a career-high four interceptions. Based on PFF’s metrics, Harper produced his best season since 2010, but his overall grade of +0.1 was still just barely above-average, ranking 46th among 87 qualifiers. Carolina’s issues in the secondary have been well-documented in the past couple years, but now that the club has some other options in the back end — Tre Boston emerged as a rookie last year, and the Panthers signed Kurt Coleman to a two-year deal in March — I don’t see Carolina being too desperate to hanging on to Harper, especially given that they can save $1.5MM by severing ties. Prediction: released.
  • Mike Tolbert, RB: Tolbert is an odd player in today’s NFL: He doesn’t fit the H-back mold, instead acting as a running back/fullback hybrid that doesn’t really exist in the league anymore. After suffering a hairline fracture in his left leg during Week 3 of last season, Tolbert was placed on IR/designated to return, ultimately coming back in Week 13. He’s nearly 30 years old, but given that Carolina doesn’t have a ton of depth behind Jonathan Stewart after releasing DeAngelo Williams, Tolbert should be safe. The Panthers would incur $1MM in dead money by cutting him. Prediction: not released.

New Orleans Saints:

  • Ben Watson, TE: Those around the Saints have talked up third-year pro Josh Hill as the leading candidate to replace tight end Jimmy Graham, who was traded to the Seahawks over the offseason. But Hill doesn’t have much in the way of experience, having logged just 20 receptions during his first two seasons, and earlier today Mike Triplett of ESPN.com wrote that he expects New Orleans to use a committee approach at tight end. All of which is to say that 34-year-old Ben Watson is probably safe for 2015; the club would only save $1.5MM by cutting him, and they probably value his veteran presence enough to keep him around. Prediction: not released.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

  • Michael Koenen, P: Koenen is the sixth-highest paid punter in the league in terms of annual value, and his 2015 cap hit is also sixth at his position. However, he finished fourth-worst in terms of net punting average last year, and though he finished with a positive grade from PFF, he still ranked only 23rd among 41 qualifiers. Koenen has no remaining bonus money or guarantees left on his current deal, so the Buccaneers could cut him at anytime, clearing out his $3.25MM salaries for ’15 and ’16. Maybe they’ll wait until training camp or the preseason to see how Koenen looks, but I think they’ll probably cut him and look for a cheaper (and younger) option. Prediction: released.
  • Brandon Myers, TE: Now 29 years of age, Myers has seen a swift decline since his high-water mark season with Oakland in 2012: His receptions have dropped from 79 to 47 to 22 in the past three seasons, while his receiving yards have decreased from 806 to 522 to 190. 2014 second-round pick Austin Seferian-Jenkins is expected to take on a larger role next season, Luke Stocker will maintain his in-lone blocking job, while Tampa also re-acquired Tim Wright via waivers. It doesn’t look like there will be a spot for Myers, or his $3MM+ in cap charges over the next two seasons. Prediction: released.

Tom Brady’s Camp Expects Ruling This Week

Tom Brady and his team expect a decision regarding his suspension appeal to be made this week, a source tells Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk. Commissioner Roger Goodell has had post-hearing briefs from both the league and the union for more than two weeks, writes Florio, and with training camp right around the corner, anticipation is building for a ruling.

Per Florio’s source, the decision is expected to be a “sham” — such wording not only indicates that Brady’s four-game suspension is either not expected to be reduced or not reduced enough (in the eyes of Brady), but that Florio’s source is likely someone on the Brady team. Once the ruling is handed down, Brady and the NFLPA are expected to file suit, and as Florio adds, the question then becomes whether Brady will seek a temporary injunction, which would allow him to play against the Steelers opening night, even if he ends up serving a suspension at some point.

In a separate post, Florio outlines what a Brady lawsuit would look like, explaining that challenges to arbitration are made on narrow bases, so the entire process should play out pretty quickly. In fact, the goal of such a suit would be that a final decision is reached before Week 1.

PFR Originals: 7/12/15 – 7/19/15

The original content and analysis produced the PFR staff during the past seven days:

  • Four of the five franchise-tagged players reached extensions with their respective clubs, and Luke Adams posted a recap of all the action complete with contract details.
  • In our Offseason In Review series, Zach Links covered the Browns, Steelers, and Vikings; Rory Parks looked at the Packers; I wrote up the Bengals; and Sam Robinson examined the Giants.
  • Working through each division, I touched on the AFC South while looking at 2015 candidates for release.
  • Writing that Muhammad Wilkerson probably won’t be able to reach the $100MM stratosphere occupied by J.J. Watt (and now) Justin Houston, Rob DiRe wondered if the Jets defensive end will be able to reach a long-term deal worth $70MM in his examination of the extension candidate.
  • Luke went over some important remaining 2015 NFL dates on the calendar, including league meetings, the trade deadline, and more.
  • We continued our Community Tailgate series, posting topics for discussions and encouraging you to voice your thoughts in the comments section. The subjects covered by Luke and Zach last week:
    • Is Justin Houston was worth a $100MM contract? (link)
    • Would the Broncos would reach a long-term pact with Demaryius Thomas? (link)
    • Which franchise player long-term extension with the most surprising? (link)
    • Who will win the NFC North? (link)
    • Will Chris Johnson land a contract? (link)

Week In Review: 7/12/15 – 7/19/15

The headlines from the past week at PFR:

Franchise Players:

Extended:

Signed:

Waived:

Suspended:

Retired:

Contracts:

Other:

Sunday Roundup: Gresham, Elam, Kromer

Let’s have a look at some links from around the league on this Sunday afternoon:

  • We learned earlier today that Jermaine Gresham would be visiting the Cardinals this week, and Darren Urban of AZCardinals.com says it would be no surprise if Arizona landed the suddenly popular tight end, given the team’s need for a pass catcher at the position and GM Steve Keim‘s propensity to bring in a veteran free agent right as training camp opens.
  • Matt Elam has been a big disappointment for the Ravens, who selected the former Florida safety with the No. 32 overall pick in the 2013 draft. Elam’s move to strong safety in 2014 should have been beneficial to him considering his skill set, but he led the team in missed tackles and struggled mightily in coverage. As Bo Smolka of CSNBaltimore.com writes, Elam is the Raven facing the most amount of pressure this season.
  • Ben Goessling of ESPN.com says the Vikings‘ safety position next to Harrison Smith is up for grabs, as evidenced by GM Rick Spielman‘s unsolicited praise of second-year player Antone Exum after the draft.
  • Some Lions fans are already looking ahead to the 2016 season, and as Michael Rothstein of ESPN.com writes in his latest mailbag, no matter how the team’s defensive tackles perform this year, that will be a position of need for Detroit given free agency and the age of Haloti Ngata.
  • Bills offensive line coach Aaron Kromer is on indefinite paid leave, and he can only return to full status when his criminal case ends. As Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com writes, the first opportunity for Kromer to resolve his case is August 12, when he is expected to enter a plea. If he has a plea deal in place with prosecutors at that time, the case could be over on that day. However, he would still be subject to a fine, suspension, or both under the NFL’s Personal Conduct Policy. Buffalo has not announced how it intends to replace Kromer once camp opens.
  • Ryan O’Halloran of The Florida Times-Union examines the Jaguars‘ running back situation heading into training camp.
  • Marc Sessler of NFL.com looks at the best remaining free agents on the defensive side of the ball, a list that includes veterans like Dwight Freeney looking for one last contract and busts like Da’Quan Bowers.