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La Canfora On Manning, Suh, McCown, Saints

February 25th, 2015 at 2:01pm CST by Luke Adams

Weighing in on two of the biggest offseason stories, Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com leads off his latest piece by looking at the Peyton Manning and Ndamukong Suh situations. In La Canfora’s view, Manning will ultimately return to the Broncos after the two sides tweak his contract a little. As for Suh, the CBSSports.com scribe doesn’t have any updates on the Lions‘ talks with the defensive star, but says he thinks the Jaguars and Raiders will be major players. For those teams to be involved in the Suh derby, he’d have to reach the open market, which would mean no long-term deal or franchise tag from Detroit.

La Canfora also passes along plenty more tidbits related to free agency, so let’s dive in and round up the highlights….

  • When it comes to the market’s top pass rushers, La Canfora thinks Pernell McPhee can reach $10MM per year, with Jerry Hughes in the $9MM range, and Brandon Graham and Jason Worilds around $7.5MM. La Canfora also believes that all four of those players will join new teams next month.
  • Free agent quarterback Josh McCown is expected to decide on his new team later this week or early next week, and could land another deal worth $5MM annually. The Bills and Browns look like the best bets for McCown, according to La Canfora.
  • The Saints are working through contract issues with about a half-dozen players on their roster, sources tell La Canfora. If things work out the way the team hopes, Marques Colston, Jahri Evans, and Curtis Lofton would likely stick around on reduced salaries, while Ben Grubbs, Brodrick Bunkley, and David Hawthorne could be let go. As for Junior Galette, La Canfora is hearing that head coach Sean Payton has “expressed a desire” to part ways with him, following his January arrest. However, Galette’s contract still contains a sizeable chunk of guaranteed money, and the team likely can’t void those guarantees.
  • Percy Harvin probably won’t accept a pay cut from the Jets, which means the team will likely cut him. La Canfora expects the wideout to gamble himself in free agency, signing a one-year deal with a team that has a good quarterback in place.
  • The Jaguars will be seeking a top pass catcher, and La Canfora wouldn’t be surprised if the team lands a player like Randall Cobb or Julius Thomas. Per La Canfora, the Packers recognize Cobb’s market could get out of hand, and may focus on re-signing other key free agents, like Bryan Bulaga and Letroy Guion.
  • Chiefs center Rodney Hudson came very close to signing a four-year extension worth $6MM per year during the season. He’s a good bet to exceed that amount in free agency, and the Raiders are one viable suitor.
  • La Canfora anticipates the Ravens will work out a restructured deal with Lardarius Webb, but isn’t as certain about Haloti Ngata, who may play for a new team in 2015.
  • The Jets would have interest in Ryan Mallett if he reaches the open market. However, the Texans have made their interest in the quarterback clear, and Mallett himself said today that he’d like to return to Houston (Twitter link via John McClain of the Houston Chronicle).

FA Rumors: Pascoe, Jean-Francois, McCourty

February 25th, 2015 at 12:16pm CST by Luke Adams

The agent for tight end Bear Pascoe tells D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that his client will be moving on from the Falcons next month.

“We had a great conversation with the Falcons and it looks like at this point Bear is going to explore some other options for next year and the Falcons are going to do the same,” said Noel LaMontagne, Pascoe’s agent. “The front office and Bear both were really appreciative of everything over the last year, but with coaching changes, there will always be other changes, so Bear is going to see what else is out there for the future.”

Let’s round up a few more Wednesday updates on 2015’s prospective free agents:

  • After been released by the Colts earlier this week, defensive lineman Ricky Jean-Francois is seeking a new home for the 2015 season, and a pair of potential suitors has already surfaced. According to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (via Twitter), Jean-Francois has visits lined up with Washington and the 49ers this week. Jean-Francois has a history with the Niners, having spent the first four years of his NFL career in San Francisco.
  • Asked about the possibility of being franchised by the Patriots, safety Devin McCourty wasn’t sure if that’s the team’s plan, but said being tagged wouldn’t be the worst thing (Twitter link via Karen Guregian of the Boston Herald). “The franchise tag is player-friendly now,” McCourty said (Twitter link via Phil Perry of CSNNE.com). “It’s a good number.”
  • After some confusion about his contract status, Lions defensive end George Johnson is being considered a restricted free agent by both the NFL and NFLPA, says Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press (Twitter link). As such, there’s a very good chance Johnson returns to Detroit.
  • Appearing on PFT Live today, veteran safety Mike Adams said he’d like to retire as a Colt (Twitter link). Adams, who is eligible for free agency, turns 34 next month, so there’s a chance his next contract will be his last.
  • As we heard this morning, the Dolphins are working to get a deal done with tight end Charles Clay. If he remains unsigned when the free agent period arrives though, Clay’s market will be “very strong,” tweets Adam Caplan of ESPN.com.
  • Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk takes a look at a few clubs to watch in free agency, identifying the Falcons, Buccaneers, Raiders, Jaguars, and Bills as the teams poised to spend big.

Ravens Cut Jacoby Jones

February 25th, 2015 at 11:08am CST by Luke Adams

Less than a year after locking him up to a new four-year contract, the Ravens have parted ways with veteran wide receiver and return man Jacoby Jones. The team made the move official today, announcing in a press release that Jones’ contract has been terminated.

Because Jones’ contract came with a $3.5MM signing bonus and still runs for three more years, the Ravens won’t free up much cap space by releasing the 30-year-old. Assuming the club doesn’t designate Jones as a post-June 1 cut, his cap hit will be reduced from $3.375MM to $2.625MM for 2015. Designating him a post-June 1 cut would create $2.5MM in cap savings.

Jones, a former third-round pick, continued to return kicks and punts for Baltimore in 2014, but his role on offense was significantly reduced — after being targeted 68 times and hauling in 37 passes in 2013, Jones received just 18 targets and caught nine passes in 2014. He also averaged 30.6 yards on 32 kickoff returns, and 9.2 yards on 30 punt returns.

Having decided to cut Jones, the Ravens still have a number of other important contract issues to address. Baltimore is working on restructuring deals for Haloti Ngata and Lardarius Webb, and Justin Forsett and Torrey Smith are among the team’s notable free-agents-to-be.

As for Jones, as a veteran with more than four years of NFL experience, he won’t pass through waivers, and is immediately eligible to sign elsewhere.

AFC North Notes: Ravens, Webb, Browns

February 25th, 2015 at 10:18am CST by Luke Adams

Earlier this morning, we passed along word that the Steelers have restructured Marcus Gilbert‘s contract, converting base salary and roster bonus money into a signing bonus to create nearly $4MM in cap savings for 2015. Now, let’s check in on what else is going on around the AFC North division. Here’s the latest:

  • In addition to trying to restructure the contract of Haloti Ngata, the Ravens are also working on figuring something out for cornerback Lardarius Webb, per Aaron Wilson of the Baltimore Sun. Webb has a cap number of $12MM for 2015, which would only be reduced to $10MM if he were released.
  • Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome has been running the team’s personnel department since its inaugural season, but he isn’t considering leaving Baltimore for retirement or another job, as Wilson writes. “Every time I walk in this office, it’s a good day,” Newsome said. “I enjoy coming to work every day, and the first time I walk in here and it doesn’t feel good, then that’s when I’ll call the boss and let him know.”
  • The NFL will likely wrap up its investigation into the Browns‘ “Textgate” scandal this week, and announce disciplinary measures for the team, tweets Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com. La Canfora adds that the Falcons‘ fake crowd noise case is close to resolution as well.
  • Pat McManamon of ESPN.com lays out a few reasons why he believes the idea of the Browns acquiring Sam Bradford is unrealistic.
  • Belatedly responding to a report from three weeks ago, Browns president Alec Scheiner disputed the notion that he has attempted to become too involved in the football side of the team’s operations. Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer has the details and the quotes from Scheiner.

Giants Release Peyton Hillis

February 25th, 2015 at 9:12am CST by Luke Adams

The Giants have parted ways with a backup running back, announcing today that they’ve released Peyton Hillis. Hillis had one year remaining on his deal, but will hit free agency a year early, and with a head start on the players eligible for free agency next month.

After averaging about 118 carries per year in his previous four seasons, Hillis carried the ball just 26 times in 2014, for 115 yards. While the former Browns running back had been the Giants’ primary backup – and occasional lead rusher – for part of the 2013 season, he was pushed down on the depth chart last season after the arrivals of Rashad Jennings (via free agency) and Andre Williams (via the draft). Hillis’ season officially ended in November when he was placed on the IR after suffering a concussion.

Hillis had been set to earn a base salary of $870K, along with a $25K workout bonus and a $50K roster bonus that was due in a couple weeks. While the Giants’ will clear his $945K cap number from their books, they won’t clear quite that much cap space, since Hillis will be replaced in the team’s top 51 by a minimum-salary player.

As a vested veteran, Hillis will be immediately eligible to sign with a new club.

Dolphins Rumors: Clay, Odrick, Harris, WRs

February 25th, 2015 at 7:52am CST by Luke Adams

Barry Jackson’s Wednesday Buzz column for the Miami Herald is chock full of notable Dolphins-related tidbits, so let’s dive right in and see what kind of free agent rumors Jackson has for us today….

  • Negotiations between the Dolphins and tight end Charles Clay are active and the team is cautiously optimistic that something will get done. There’s no certainty at this point, but Miami would like to keep its Clay/Dion Sims TE duo intact.
  • The Dolphins intend to make an offer to free-agent-to-be Jared Odrick, and have told him as much. However, the team has confided in people that the defensive tackle may command more than what the club is willing to pay — a contract worth $7MM+ per year isn’t out of reach for Odrick.
  • Miami wants to add a starting linebacker, and David Harris of the Jets figures to be a prime target. New Dolphins president of football operations Mike Tannenbaum drafted Harris back in 2007 when he was the Jets’ general manager. If Harris ultimately ends up out of the Dolphins’ price range, Mason Foster of the Buccaneers may be Plan B, per Jackson.
  • The Dolphins would like to re-sign prospective free agent defensive backs Louis Delmas and Jimmy Wilson, as well as tackle Jason Fox.
  • While the fate of specific players like Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline still hasn’t been made clear, the Dolphins have told people that there will be some turnover at the wide receiver position, according to Jackson.
  • Although Miami would like to bring back Samson Satele, he will likely find a better opportunity elsewhere now that the club is moving Mike Pouncey back to center.

Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Steelers

February 24th, 2015 at 11:03pm CST by Rory Parks

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Ben Roethlisberger, QB: $18,395,000
  2. Lawrence Timmons, LB: $12,566,250
  3. Antonio Brown, WR: $9,787,500
  4. Troy Polamalu, S: $8,250,000
  5. Maurkice Pouncey, C: $8,100,000
  6. Cortez Allen, CB: $6,981,000
  7. Marcus Gilbert, T: $6,980,000
  8. Cameron Heyward, DL: $6,969,000
  9. Heath Miller, TE: $5,666,666
  10. Mike Mitchell, S: $4,950,000

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 22 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview

By virtue of a Week 17 victory against division rival Cincinnati, the Steelers snagged the AFC North title in 2014, which is impressive enough in its own right, but especially so when considering that the division sent three teams to the playoffs last year. Much of Pittsburgh’s success was built on its tremendous offensive performance, as quarterback Ben Roethlisberger enjoyed a career year behind an offensive line that managed to keep him mostly upright, and Le’Veon Bell established himself as a premier all-purpose threat. Antonio Brown, meanwhile, proved that he is one of the league’s most prolific receivers, catching an incredible 129 passes for nearly 1,700 yards. He even added a passing touchdown and a punt return touchdown to the 13 TDs that he hauled in through the air. Combined with the strong showings of second-year wideout Markus Wheaton and rookie Martavis Bryant, the Steelers offense looks like it will be a powerhouse for the foreseeable future.

The defense, though, was a different story, and its underwhelming performance played a major role in the team’s disappointing defeat at the hands of wildcard entrant Baltimore in the first round of the playoffs. According to Pro Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average metric, Pittsburgh’s defense was the third-worst in the league in 2014, while their offense was the second-best. The secondary’s performance was especially troubling, and that unit will be a primary focal point of the team’s offseason.

Former NFL agent Joel Corry recently tabbed the Steelers as having one of the worst salary cap situations in the league, and even the inevitable extension of Roethlisberger’s contract and the departure of a few aging veterans would not bring a ton of relief. After years of so-called salary cap hell, the Steelers will once again have to make every penny count over the next few months.

Key Free Agents

There are several notable names on the Steelers’ list of pending free agents, but only one is likely to generate a great deal of discussion: Jason Worilds. Pittsburgh used the transition tag on Worilds last season, and it has not ruled out using it again in 2015. The cost for the transition tag this year, though, will likely be around $11MM, and just last week GM Kevin Colbert implied that Worilds’ time in Pittsburgh may be up.

Jason Worilds (vertical)

Worilds ranked as the 11th-best 3-4 outside linebacker out of 46 qualified players according to Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required), and his departure would leave a bit of a gap in the team’s pass rush, which has been among the league’s worst in each of the last two seasons. But although Worilds is a good player, he is not a great player at this point in his career, and the Steelers may be better off spending their money elsewhere. Although sack totals are by no means the best way to measure a player–particularly a player like Worilds, who has shown that he can also play well against the run–Worilds’ eight sacks suggest that his production would not be irreplaceable.

Outside of Worilds, the remainder of Pittsburgh’s free agent crop is rather underwhelming. Although Ike Taylor and James Harrison conjure fond memories for Steelers fans, their play has inevitably deteriorated in recent seasons as they reach the end of their careers. There has been talk that both players could retire or follow former defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau to Tennessee, but it is unlikely that their departure would have anything other than sentimental import for the Steelers.

Coaching Changes

Speaking of LeBeau, who served as the team’s defensive coordinator from 1995-1996 and from 2004-2014 before stepping down from his position in January, his absence from the Steelers’ sidelines will be a strange one. LeBeau enjoyed tremendous success as the leader of Pittsburgh’s defense, and although his replacement, Keith Butler, will retain LeBeau’s familiar 3-4 scheme, the overall dynamic will certainly be different.

Butler will be tasked with getting the most out of a defense that has some young talent in unproven linebackers Ryan Shazier and Jarvis Jones, both of whom suffered significant injuries in 2014, and up-and-coming defensive end Cameron Heyward. But outside of those players, there is little to be excited about on the defensive side of the ball (assuming Worilds does not, in fact, return). We learned earlier this month that the team would target pass rushers and defensive backs in free agency and the draft, and given the talent disparity between Pittsburgh’s offense and defense, it would appear that the front office is prepared to devote most of its efforts this offseason to restocking the talent in Butler’s unit.

Contract Issues

Given the way Roethlisberger performed in 2014, there is no reason to believe he cannot continue playing at an All-Pro level for the next four or five seasons. To that end, we have heard for a few months that the team was preparing to give the face of its franchise a hefty extension, with something along the lines of a six-year, $120MM deal in play. Such an extension would likely lower Roethlisberger’s cap number for this year, thereby giving the team the financial wiggle room it needs to address the defense in free agency. Contract talks are progressing, and an agreement could come within the next several weeks.

On a less pleasant note, the Steelers could choose to part ways with Troy Polamalu, who has lost much of the dynamic playmaking ability that made him one of the most-feared safeties in the league for years. Releasing Polamalu would clear about $3.7MM in cap space, and even though the internal options to replace him are less than inspiring, the team may have no other choice but to part ways with the future Hall-of-Famer.

Cortez Allen, who was rewarded with an extension in September after a solid 2013 season, was nothing short of a disaster in 2014, and the team could choose to let him go rather than risk suffering through a similar performance in 2015. Though Allen’s release would create a minimal amount of cap room, it may be more logical for the Steelers to see if he can rebound in 2015 rather than cut a player at a position of need just one year removed from a strong campaign.

The team might also choose to extend guard David DeCastro, who has established himself as one of the better interior offensive linemen in the league over the course of the last several seasons, and Heyward, whose pass-rushing skills are still developing but who has shown great promise as an edge-setter on the defensive line. At this point, an extension is more likely for Heyward, who can become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year. With DeCastro, the Steelers can buy a little more time if they exercise his fifth-year option, which would keep him under club control for 2016.

Overall Outlook

The Steelers, traditionally known for their iconic defenses, saw a true changing of the guard in 2014. Their offense, while always solid or better under Roethlisberger’s leadership, absolutely exploded last season, propelling Pittsburgh to the AFC North crown. The defense, meanwhile, will be the Steelers’ undoing in 2015 if they cannot utilize their minimal cap room and the draft to address their needs in the secondary and in the pass rush. A team that relies so heavily on their offense is rarely a title contender, but if Butler can find some of LeBeau’s magic, and if the team can unearth a gem or two in the draft, 2015 might just yield another chance at a seventh Super Bowl title.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Tuesday Roundup: Cassel, Winston, Peterson

February 24th, 2015 at 8:38pm CST by Rory Parks

Vikings GM Rick Spielman said that nothing definitive has been decided about bringing Matt Cassel back to the team, but Spielman was complimentary of his veteran signal-caller when discussing him earlier this week. “We went through our process, we evaluated all of our players,” Spielman said, according to Brian Hall of FOXSportsNorth.com. “We looked at everything from what they bring to our football team, in the locker room, off the field, what they bring to us on the field. But we also have to look at where they’re at from a standpoint of their contract, where we’re at from a cap standpoint…Matt’s done a great job. Came in and has won some games when he had to play. He’s a great locker-room guy. Matt has a lot of value to us.” Cassel is signed for the 2015 season at a salary of $4.15MM, and he’ll count $4.75MM against the cap.

Now for some more links from around the league on this Tuesday evening:

  • Tahir Whitehead filled in capably for Stephen Tulloch when Tulloch went out last season, and that leaves the Lions with an interesting choice this offseason, as Kyle Meinke of MLive.com writes. Detroit could continue to roll with Whitehead at middle linebacker and carve out some space by parting ways with Tulloch. The 30-year-old is slated to count $5.8MM against the cap next season. Whitehead, meanwhile, costs just $713K.
  • The consensus around the league is that the Buccaneers will draft Jameis Winston with the No. 1 overall pick, according to a tweet from the NFL Network (citing its own Ian Rapoport).
  • The Colts are in dire need of a running back, and Mike Wells of ESPN.com writes that the team will be closely monitoring the Adrian Peterson situation. If Peterson and the Vikings part ways, Indianapolis GM Ryan Grigson, a noted risk-taker, may pull the trigger.
  • Falcons defensive end Osi Umenyiora has no plans to retire, writes Vaughn McClure of ESPN.com. Umenyiora, 33, will become a free agent on March 10, and he said he would like to play at least one more season. If he could choose, Umenyiora stated that he would like to finish his career where it started: with the Giants.
  • Packers fullback John Kuhn is one of the last members of a dying breed, but the impending free agent reaffirmed his importance to the Green Bay offense in 2014, earning first team All-Pro honors for the first time in his career. As Weston Hodkiewicz of PackersNews.com writes, there is mutual interest in Kuhn’s return to the Packers.
  • Former Australian rugby star Jarryd Hayne, who has garnered interest from at least a dozen teams, is expected to sign with a club this week, according to Aaron Wilson of the Baltimore Sun (writing for the National Football Post).
  • Bill Williamson of ESPN.com believes middle linebacker Nate Irving could be a fit with the Raiders if the impending free agent is not re-signed by the Broncos.
  • Parys Haralson, who signed a one-year deal with the Saints in February, hopes to end his career in New Orleans, writes Katherine Terrell of the Times-Picayune.
  • Jason Fitzerald of OverTheCap.com provides the Panthers‘ salary cap outlook for the 2015 season.

Luke Adams contributed to this post.

 

Offseason Outlook: Indianapolis Colts

February 24th, 2015 at 7:49pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Vontae Davis, CB: $11,250,000
  2. Robert Mathis, OLB: $7,750,000
  3. Anthony Castonzo, T: $7,438,000
  4. Arthur Jones, DT: $7,100,000
  5. Andrew Luck, QB: $7,034,363
  6. Gosder Cherilus, T: $6,900,000
  7. Greg Toler, CB: $5,833,334
  8. D’Qwell Jackson, LB: $5,750,000
  9. Erik Walden, OLB: $4,250,000
  10. Donald Thomas, T: $3,750,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • None

Draft:

  • No. 29 overall pick
  • Acquired sixth-round pick from Seahawks in deal for Marcus Burley.
  • Acquired seventh-round pick from Cowboys in deal for Caesar Rayford.
  • Owe seventh-round pick to 49ers for Cam Johnson.

Other:

Overview

Year three of the Andrew Luck era was another successful one for the Colts, whose 11-5 record was enough to earn them a second straight AFC South crown and a third consecutive playoff berth. The Colts also scored a pair of postseason victories, including a road upset over old friend Peyton Manning and the Broncos, before bowing out at the hands of the Super Bowl-winning Patriots in the conference championship.Andrew Luck

Indianapolis has improved by one playoff round per season under Luck and head coach Chuck Pagano, going from a wild-card loss to a divisional defeat to an AFC title game exit. The next logical step is the Super Bowl. In order to get there, though, the Colts will need a highly productive offseason – one which sees general manager Ryan Grigson fortify the roster around his 25-year-old franchise quarterback.

Positions Of Need

The Colts ranked first in the NFL in passing, third in total yardage and sixth in points per game in 2014. Those numbers would indicate that their offense isn’t in need of much help. However, they were a pedestrian 17th in Football Outsiders’ offensive efficiency ratings, their rushing attack ranked 22nd in yardage, and two of their established wide receivers are without contracts. Thus, there’s clearly work to be done.

Running back is a position the Colts are sure to address in the coming months. That could simply mean re-signing free agent-to-be Ahmad Bradshaw, though the eight-year veteran has dealt with major injury issues as a Colt and appeared in just 13 of a possible 32 regular-season games. To his credit, the 28-year-old racked up impressive numbers (725 total yards and eight touchdowns) prior to breaking his fibula last November. After Bradshaw got hurt, Dan Herron emerged as Indy’s most effective back. Herron averaged a terrific 4.5 yards per rush, but it was only over 78 attempts and his career sample size of 87 carries in three years is minuscule.

If the Colts don’t believe Bradshaw or Herron is the solution to their backfield woes, they might think differently of 10-year veteran Frank Gore. Multiple sources have linked Indianapolis to the career 49er, who the Sacramento Bee’s Matt Barrow wrote in January was “curious” about joining the Luck-led Colts. More recently, Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller said last week (video link) that Gore to Indianapolis was a “shoo-in.” The bruising Gore would make sense as a stopgap, considering Colts O-coordinator Pep Hamilton is a proponent of a power running game.

The Colts also have uncertainty at receiver, where their only signed, viable options after T.Y. Hilton are Donte Moncrief and ex-CFL star Duron Carter. All three are 25 or younger, a far cry from Reggie Wayne – the Colts’ biggest free agent in terms of name recognition. The 36-year-old, who has played all 14 of his pro seasons with the Colts and caught over 1,000 passes, hasn’t yet informed the team if he plans on returning in 2015. Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star wrote last week that the Colts are “noncommittal” about Wayne, who has battled injuries and dips in production the last two years.

In the event the Colts part ways with Wayne and enable fellow free agent Hakeem Nicks to walk, they could turn to the open market to find a complement to Hilton. There are several accomplished receivers who are expected to test the market. One option is four-year Raven Torrey Smith. The 6-foot, 205-pounder has been both effective (213 receptions, 16.9 YPC, 30 TDs) and durable, having played in all 64 of Baltimore’s regular-season games during his career, and would give Luck a proven wideout to team with Hilton. It may work in the Colts’ favor that their new receivers coach, Jim Hostler, held the same position in Baltimore from 2011-13 and tutored Smith for three years. Signing Smith would take a sizable chunk out of the Colts’ $39MM-plus in cap space. Jason LaCanfora of CBSSports.com tweeted earlier this month that Smith rejected a five-year, $35MM offer ($19MM in guarantees) from the Ravens prior to last season.

Obviously, in order to get the most out of their backs and receivers (whomever they may be), the Colts will need a dependable offensive line. They have a strong twosome in stellar left tackle Anthony Castonzo and guard Jack Mewhort, but the rest of the group is less capable. Even though right tackle Gosder Cherilus had a miserable, injury-plagued 2014, the seven-year veteran is expected to stay in place because he’s been good in the past and cutting him would cost the Colts more than keeping him. That leaves center and guard as areas Grigson may try to upgrade.

Indy started a slew of different centers last season and, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), A.Q. Shipley was the strongest of the group. However, the restricted free agent is on the outs, Holder wrote last week. Further, according to Holder, Grigson won’t use more than a late-round pick on a center. He could go the free agency route for the Chiefs’ Rodney Hudson or the Raiders’ Stefen Wisniewski. Either would be probable upgrades over the Colts’ in-house options (Khaled Holmes and Jonotthan Harrison). Joel Corry, a cap expert and former agent, believes Hudson will end up with a deal upward of $5MM per year, according to the Kansas City Star’s Terez A. Paylor. Wisniewski is seeking money in the realm of an average starting center, ESPN’s Michael Wagaman has reported.

As for the guard position, the 49ers’ Mike Iupati heads the free agent class and, as an elite-level run blocker, would seem to be an excellent fit for a Colts team that needs to fix its ground game. The three-time Pro Bowler is going to cost a lot, without question, and landing him would likely mean moving Mewhort from left to right guard – where the soon-to-be second-year man played occasionally at Ohio State. Regardless, with Mewhort and Iupati, Indy would have a top-end guard tandem on paper.

On the other side of the ball, the Colts’ defensive line has already begun undergoing changes. The team made a newsworthy move Monday in releasing tackle Ricky Jean-Francois, who was due $5.5MM next season. In the wake of the Jean-Francois news, Holder speculated that the Colts could pursue the likes of Nick Fairley (Detroit) and Terrance Knighton (Denver) on the open market. Adding Fairley or Knighton would be auspicious for the Colts, who finished last season an unspectacular 18th in conventional run defense and 19th in Football Outsiders’ version. The Colts’ kryptonite, the Patriots, exploited that area of Indy’s defense in both teams’ matchups last season: LeGarrette Blount rushed for 148 yards in New England’s 45-7 AFC championship drubbing. Two months prior, the previously unknown Jonas Gray famously eclipsed the 200-yard mark in a 42-20 Pats victory.

Besides stopping the run, the other key function of the front seven is generating a pass rush. Despite the fact that the Colts finished 2014 with the ninth-most sacks in the league (41), Grigson still wants more rushers, Mike Chappell of RTV6 tweeted last week.

Eleven-year Colts veteran Robert Mathis paced the league in sacks two years ago (19.5) before missing all of last season, but Indy wouldn’t be wise to think his return will cure its ills. Mathis sat out 2014 because of a PED suspension and, worse, a torn Achilles. Moreover, he’s on the wrong end of the aging curve at 34. ESPN’s Mike Wells reported Monday that the Colts are “likely” to draft a rusher to complement Mathis and Jonathan Newsome, also noting that they’ll keep an eye on free agency. Wells specifically mentioned the Chiefs’ Justin Houston, who led the league in sacks last season (22), and the Giants’ Jason Pierre-Paul, on whom New York is expected to place the franchise tag.

The prime area of concern on the back end of the Colts’ defense is safety, where they’re especially fallow. They already cut one starter from last season in strong safety LaRon Landry, while the other (free safety Mike Adams) is presently unsigned. So is main reserve Sergio Brown. There does seem to be optimism about the return of Adams, whom Grigson said the team would “love” to keep. At 33, Adams had a career year in 2014 with five interceptions and earned his first career Pro Bowl trip.

Regardless of whether Adams re-signs, the position will still need attention, which Pagano acknowledged. “There’s a bunch of guys out there in free agency we could take a look at,” Pagano said, according to Holder. “There’s a bunch of guys here at the draft we’ll evaluate.” 

The premier free agent is expected to be the Patriots’ Devin McCourty. Signing him would greatly aid the Colts while simultaneously dealing a tremendous blow to rival New England. Draft-wise, former Alabama star Landon Collins is already on the Colts’ radar.

Key Free Agents

The Colts have other noteworthy free agents besides the aforementioned. One is defensive lineman Cory Redding, who isn’t a slam dunk to play anywhere next season. The 34-year-old is pondering retirement after playing a substantial role for last year’s Colts, appearing in over 70% of defensive snaps and garnering praise from Pro Football Focus for his efforts.

Indianapolis also has decisions to make on two of Redding’s fellow integral defenders, linebacker Jerrell Freeman and cornerback Darius Butler. As a restricted free agent, Freeman is almost sure to return to the Colts. Butler, however, is unrestricted and could change uniforms as early as next month. The six-year veteran has spent the last three seasons with the Colts, totaling eight interceptions. While none of those INTs came in 2014, Butler was still a solid part of Indy’s above-average pass defense.

Finally, there’s a trio of unsung hero types in offensive lineman Joe Reitz, safety Colt Anderson and linebacker Andy Studebaker. The latter two are special teams stalwarts, while the 29-year-old Reitz’s best trait has been his versatility. Last year, in fact, he started at a team-high three different O-line positions and fared well. None of Reitz, Anderson or Studebaker should cost a ton for the Colts to bring back, but they’re all useful role players. Indy would be smart to re-sign all three.

Possible Cap Casualties

There’s one painfully obvious cap casualty on the Colts: Trent Richardson. It seems inevitable that the relationship between the Colts and the disappointing running back will end this offseason.

Richardson, whom the Colts acquired from Cleveland for a first-round pick in 2013, has been a colossal bust in his two seasons with Indianapolis. The 24-year-old has played 29 regular-season games as a Colt and registered just 977 rushing yards with a paltry 3.09 per-carry average. Worsening matters is that Richardson was scratched for the Colts’ final two playoff games last month, the latter of which was a suspension for missing a team walkthrough. With all of that considered, it’s clear that the next, final step in the marriage between the two sides is a divorce. If Indy releases Richardson, it will save more than $3MM for next season (provided Richardson’s guarantees void because of his suspension). The writing is on the wall.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues

The Colts are going to have to shell out major money in the near future for some of their paramount offensive players.

Atop the list is Luck, who will be paid handsomely for both his accomplishments and his status as the face of the Colts’ franchise. During his three-year career, Luck has started all 52 of the Colts’ games (playoffs included), led the team to three straight double-digit-win outputs, and thrown for 86 touchdowns and nearly 13,000 yards in the regular season.

ESPN’s Adam Schefter tweeted last month that Indy was working on a contract that could make Luck the league’s highest-paid player. Team owner Jim Irsay refuted Schefter’s report, saying Luck still has two years left on his deal. If he isn’t extended by later this offseason, the Colts will exercise Luck’s 2016 option to make sure he’ll at least be theirs for two more seasons. Barring something disastrous, though, Indianapolis will surely do everything in its power to keep Luck under center for a lot longer.

The Colts will have to make more immediate decisions on three of Luck’s offensive mates – Hilton, Castonzo and tight end Coby Fleener – all of whom are scheduled for free agency next year.

Hilton came into the league with Luck in 2012 and has developed into his QB’s go-to target. The 5-foot-9, 178-pounder just completed his second straight 82-catch season, one in which he set a career high in yardage (1,345) and tied his previous touchdown mark (seven). The 25-year-old could end up with a contract similar to the one the Jets gave Eric Decker last offseason. Decker was coming off his second consecutive 80-catch, 1,000-yard season as a Bronco when he signed a five-year, $36.25MM deal with New York ($15MM in guarantees). He put up 216 catches (13.7 YPC) and 32 touchdowns from 2011-13, when his age ranged from 24 to 26. Compare that to Hilton’s three-year stretch – 214 grabs (15.4 YPC) and 19 scores from ages 23 to 25 – and you have the neighborhood in which his next contract is likely to live.

Castonzo, the cornerstone of the Colts’ offensive line, has appeared in and started 60 games since joining the team as a second-round pick in 2011. The 26-year-old has been the quintessence of reliability over the last three years. He played every offensive snap for the Colts in 2012, missed only four in 2013, and led all NFL O-linemen in snaps last season (1,115). Castonzo will make $7.4MM in 2015, the fifth-year option Indy picked up last offseason. That option is the value of the highest-paid 25 players at the position, excluding the top three players. An extension should see him climb toward the lower end of the top 10, where yearly value ranges start at $8.5MM.

Finally, there’s Fleener – who was part of a superb Colts 2012 draft class that, as mentioned, also produced Luck and Hilton. Fleener finished 2014 ranked 16th among tight ends in catches (51), eighth in yardage (774) and tied for fifth in TDs (eight). His per-catch average was tops at the position among those with at least 25 receptions. He’ll make under $1.7MM next season and is sure to get a considerable raise between this offseason and next. If Fleener ends up in the top 10 tight ends in yearly contract value, that would mean a salary north of $5MM per annum.

Overall Outlook

Assuming Luck stays healthy, the least the Colts will do next season is rule their division for the third straight year. Whether they can ascend to greater heights and dethrone the Patriots in the AFC will hinge on how well Grigson handles the offseason. The GM will have plenty of money to work with, which should help the Colts repair at least some of their issues and close the gap on the Pats, but he’ll have to keep the long-term future in mind when he considers spending it. His most important order of business this offseason will be locking up Indy’s offensive linchpins for the foreseeable future.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

East Notes: Jets, Maclin, Spiller, Pats, Giants

February 24th, 2015 at 7:09pm CST by Dallas Robinson

We’ve heard that the Jets plan to be aggressive in free agency, and now Tony Pauline of DraftInsider.net offers a little more clarification on what areas New York might be targeting next month. In addition to outside linebackers, the Jets will look to sign “younger, taller corners” — Pauline suggests Davon House, Chris Culliver, and Kareem Jackson as players who fit that mold. Pauline adds that Gang Green will also look for defensive line depth and help at guard, but won’t pay for someone like Mike Iupati, who is expected to command ~$8MM per year.

Here’s more from the East:

  • Before Jeremy Maclin changed agents in November, ESPN’s Adam Caplan (via Twitter) believed it was a near-lock that the receiver would re-sign with the Eagles. Now, Caplan isn’t so sure, saying that the odds of the two parties getting a deal done is less certain.
  • Many have linked C.J. Spiller to the Jets thanks to the presence of offensive coordinator Chan Gailey, but speaking on SiriusXM NFL Radio today, Spiller said there is a possibility he remains with the Bills, but noted the “ball was in [Buffalo’s] court” (link via Kevin Patra of NFL.com).
  • The Patriots worked out former Packers receiver Kevin Dorsey today, reports Aaron Wilson of the National Football Post. Dorsey, a 2013 draft pick, was waived by Green Bay a week ago. The Maryland product has been on injured reserve during most of his first two seasons in the league.
  • Per the terms of his deal with the Giants, offensive lineman Dallas Reynolds will earn a $660K base salary, a $25K signing bonus, and a $15K workout bonus, according to Jordan Raanan of NJ.com (Twitter link).
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