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PFR Originals: 2/8/15 – 2/15/15

February 15th, 2015 at 11:51am CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

  • Luke Adams began examining the 2015 free agent market, starting with the offensive skill positions: quarterbacks (link), running backs (link), receivers (link), and tight ends (link).
  • Our Offseason Outlook series continued, with four more teams being covered. I looked at the Dolphins (link), Zach Links previewed the Giants (link) and the Cowboys (link), and Rob DiRe analyzed the Eagles (link).
  • Luke went over the options the Patriots have for cornerback Darrelle Revis, whose 2015 option (with a cap hit of $25MM) seems untenable.
  • Sam Robinson took a look at the free agent stock of Broncos TE Julius Thomas, who will be the top tight end available on the market. Check out the rest of our Free Agent Stock Watch series here.
  • Luke recapped all the major coaching changes of 2015.
  • PFR readers believe Brian Hoyer is the best free agent QB available, with Mark Sanchez finishing in a close second.

Week In Review: 2/8/15 – 2/15/15

February 15th, 2015 at 11:28am CST by Dallas Robinson

The headlines from the past week at PFR:

Key News:

Coaching:

  • Packers – Tom Clements promoted to AHC with play-calling duties; numerous other changes (link)
  • Seahawks – Kris Richard, DC (link)

Options:

Re-Signed:

Released:

Retired:

AFC Links: Jets, Brady, Browns, Ravens

February 15th, 2015 at 9:52am CST by Ben Levine

The Steelers have a number of impending free agents, including linebacker Jason Worilds and cornerback Ike Taylor. While some Pittsburgh fans may be pessimistic about the team retaining all of their players, general manager Kevin Colbert is actually confident.

“Almost to a man I’d be shocked if [they] didn’t want to stay,” Colbert said (via ESPN.com’s Scott Brown). “I feel they all would like the opportunity to be able to stay. It doesn’t mean they won’t field other offers or see what else is out there. In the end I think the majority of them will want to be here.”

Let’s take a look at some more notes from the AFC…

  • We heard yesterday that Antonio Cromartie would be very open to a reunion with the Jets, but the cornerback cautioned that he may want to play for a contender. However, he also noted that the organization was closer to contention than their 4-12 record indicated. “I don’t think the Jets are rebuilding at all,” Cromartie told Paul Schwartz of the New York Post.
  • Tom Brady is set to make $5MM today as part of the $30MM signing bonus from his 2013 extension with the Patriots, tweets ESPN’s Field Yates.
  • If Tony Grossi of ESPNCleveland.com was the Browns owner, his first move this offseason would be re-signing Brian Hoyer. However, he’d only make that move if the entire organization agreed.
  • ESPN.com’s Jamison Hensley examined whether the Ravens should cut wideout Jacoby Jones, with the writer concluding that the team should hold on to the return specialist. The writer does caution that the receiver’s production may not justify his salary.

Cowboys Notes: Romo, Draft, Free Agency

February 15th, 2015 at 8:53am CST by Ben Levine

It’s going to be a busy couple of months in Dallas, as the organization looks to retain two of the top offensive free agents: receiver Dez Bryant and running back DeMarco Murray. Our own Zach Links explored the team’s offseason outlook last week, with Zach suggesting a variety of alternatives should the duo get away.

When you’re finished checking that out, take a look at some assorted notes out of Dallas…

  • Considering the high level of play the Cowboys got from Tony Romo in 2014, David Moore of The Dallas News can’t envision the organization pursuing his successor in this year’s draft.
  • Furthermore, Moore says it’s tough to envision a scenario where the Cowboys don’t use their first-rounder on a defensive player. The writer cautions that the team could be intrigued if a “bluechip” lineman or wideout falls to No. 27.
  • Jon Machota of The Dallas News doesn’t think the team should pursue a top pass-rusher in free agency. The writer would prefer the Cowboys prioritize re-signing their own players, having a good draft, and finding some value in the free agent market.
  • In a separate article, Machota shoots down the idea of trading up in the first round of the draft. The writer would not only prefer keeping the extra picks, but he’s also under the impression that whoever the Cowboys select at No. 27 wouldn’t be significantly worse that someone they select in the early-20s.

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Eagles

February 14th, 2015 at 9:31pm CST by Rob DiRe

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. LeSean McCoy, RB: $11,950,000
  2. Trent Cole, OLB: $11,625,000
  3. Jason Peters, T: $9,050,000
  4. Cary Williams, CB: $8,166,668
  5. Connor Barwin, OLB: $7,000,000
  6. DeMeco Ryans, LB: $6,900,000
  7. Evan Mathis, G: $6,500,000
  8. Malcolm Jenkins, S: $5,666,666
  9. Lane Johnson, T: $5,414,483
  10. Todd Herremans, OL: $5,200,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • Chip Kelly awarded final say over all draft, roster decisions.

Draft:

  • No. 20 overall pick
  • Acquired a fourth-round pick from the 49ers (via the Bills) for Bryce Brown.

Other:

Overview

The Eagles are coming off a painful end to the season in which they finished 1-3 in their final four games, ending up with a 10-6 record and narrowly missing the playoffs after having control of the NFC East for most of the year. Those four losses all came with Mark Sanchez at the helm, after the team lost Nick Foles to a broken clavicle in early November, an injury that prematurely ended the starting quarterback’s season. While Sanchez had his moments and performed better than many backups would have fared, he was unable to keep the lead he was handed in the divisional race.

Jeremy MaclinChip Kelly‘s vaunted offensive attack was unable to hit the same marks it did in his first season as the head coach, when Foles became a dark horse MVP candidate behind his 27 touchdown to only two interceptions. The Eagles were able to move the ball behind a dangerous ground attack with LeSean McCoy and a superb offensive line.

This past season, however, the offensive line dealt with injuries and suspensions, and was never able to line up its best five guys and really get a flow running the football. McCoy still ran his way into the Pro Bowl, but Eagles fans saw it as a slow burn instead of the highlight reel on loop that it had been in 2013.

One of last year’s best trades brought in Darren Sproles, who did provide some spark to both the offense and the special teams units. The Eagles’ struggles on offense were mitigated by touchdowns by the defense and special teams, but all those wins without a playoff appearance could keep the team from drafting the one player it might need the most in order to take the next step into a Super Bowl contender.

Transfer of Power

Since the regular season ended, the biggest story surrounding the Eagles has been the club’s front office shakeup. Kelly has been given a more authoritative role over the roster, while former general manager Howie Roseman has reportedly maintained control over contract negotiations and cap management. So far, this new setup has created more confusion than anything.

The new power structure will ensure that Kelly will be able to have more of an imprint on the on-the-field product. Without anyone to answer to, he will be able to pursue players to fit his system through the draft and free agency, with less push-back or resistance from his front office.

Kelly has already made a habit of adding former Oregon Ducks to his Eagles’ roster, but with full control it would be difficult to imagine someone with vision for the team such as Kelly’s not immediately pushing this roster forward, especially on offense, in order to run the offense exactly the way he wants.

Quarterback Situation

The first thing the Eagles need to address is their quarterback position. Nick Foles was sensational in 2013, but the combination of him and Sanchez this past year was adequate at best. Kelly is not running a defense-first team that can survive inconsistent quarterback play, so that will have to improve going forward.

Sanchez faded down the stretch, likely putting him out of the running for the job. The seemingly obvious solution would be to move forward with Foles, and chalk up a failed 2014 campaign to his injury. That would be a dangerous presumption. Foles turned the ball over 13 times in eight games, and struggled moving the football down the field. He also graded out extremely poorly according to Pro Football Focus, coming up behind the likes of Charlie Whitehurst, Zach Mettenberger, Mike Glennon, and Kirk Cousins (subscription required).

Of course, the top free agent passer is generally considered to be either Sanchez or Brian Hoyer. Sanchez performed worse than Foles, and doesn’t have a recent Pro Bowl season to his name, and Hoyer graded out considerably worse than Foles — the Browns signal-caller was among the worst in the league, according to Pro Football Focus.

The wild card here is the NFL Draft, where Jameis Winston is ascending as the likely number one overall pick. The quarterback he passed to get there is former Oregon Duck Marcus Mariota, who is watching his stock slip a little as the weeks go by.

The Jets are currently slated to take Mariota with the sixth pick, according to ESPN Draft Expert Todd McShay (Insider-only article). The Eagles select at No. 20, but Kelly may be hoping to have a shot to draft his former star. Moving up from 20th to first or second is probably out of the question, and even moving up to sixth is unlikely. However, if Kelly is sold on Mariota, there must be a place where he feels comfortable moving up to get the Heisman winner should he continue to fall.

Last year, Teddy Bridgewater went from possible top-three pick to the end of the first round where the Vikings traded up to select him. I don’t imagine that happening again, even if Mariota continues to fall out of favor with NFL evaluators. Even falling to No. 20 is very unlikely, as the fit with the Eagles is too obvious and any other team interested would be smart enough to try to work a deal to move up ahead of the Eagles to select him.

Kelly might not think Mariota is the perfect fit for the NFL version of his up-tempo attack, but Foles, Sanchez, and Hoyer are probably more likely to disappoint than they are to put up the points that Kelly is looking for from his offense.

Positions Of Need

Other than quarterback, which is always the number one position of need for teams that don’t feel they have the right guy, the Eagles’ biggest need is at cornerback, where the team is in desperate need of an upgrade. During their 1-3 finish, the Eagles repeatedly got burned in one-on-one coverage on the outside – giving up notably large performances to Dez Bryant, Doug Baldwin, DeSean Jackson, and Odell Beckham Jr. – and the club’s corners struggled in many other games this season.

If the team is insistent on running an aggressive defense, it will require better players on the outside. Darrelle Revis seems like a lock to return to the Patriots, and Byron Maxwell might not represent the type of athlete the Eagles need for their style of defense. Brandon Flowers also struggled in the Chiefs’ man-to-man heavy defense before being cut and restoring his value in San Diego.

Among corners that are better fits, Kareem Jackson could potentially handle the scheme, although he has been inconsistent in Houston. Antonio Cromartie is also a modicum of inconsistency, but he has a lot of experience being on an island and has had more good days than bad recently.

One interesting option is Packers free agent Tramon Williams, who was last seen getting burned for a game-winning, one-on-one touchdown to Jermaine Kearse. Williams will likely not be re-signed by the Packers as a 32-year-old corner. He still has some cover skills, and on a short-term deal, could be effective. Chris Culliver and Davon House could be additional options for Philadelphia, though neither would be considered a surefire fix at the position.

The team could also use an upgrade at safety, although veteran options are far and few between there as well. If Antrel Rolle or Troy Polamalu hits free agency, both could be stop-gap solutions for the Eagles in 2015. The team will also have an opportunity to look at defensive backs with their first-round pick, with a number of corners and/or safeties likely to be available. Landon Collins of Alabama could be one star player that may fall to the Eagles at that No. 20 spot.

Key Free Agents

The Eagles’ most important free agent is Jeremy Maclin, who bet on himself with a one-year contract last season. That bet paid off to the tune of 85 catches, 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns. Maclin is now in line for a very big long-term contract with plenty of guaranteed money. Our own Luke Adams noted that it wouldn’t make sense for Maclin to sign his extension just yet — with franchise tags ready to be passed out, Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant could be off the market by the time free agency opens. That would make Maclin’s best competition Randall Cobb, and could leave him as the most sought-after free agent at his position.

The only other major free agent worth keeping is edge rusher Brandon Graham. Graham never quite fit into the Eagles’ plans under Kelly’s regime. Graham would be a cleaner fit for a 4-3 defense where he could line up with one hand in the dirt. Despite high production, he has appeared in less than 1,300 snaps over the past three seasons. In 435 snaps in 2012, he ranked as the second-best defensive end in the league according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). He graded positively again in 331 snaps in 2013 while transitioning to a 3-4 outside linebacker, and his 524 snaps in 2014 he rated out as the third-best player at his position. Graham will likely look for a big pay raise with more opportunity, and the Eagles might think it is better to let him go and groom underwhelming 2014 first-round pick Marcus Smith for a larger role on the defense.

The team will likely allow Nate Allen, Bradley Fletcher, Sanchez, and Brad Smith leave in free agency, or bring them back on short-term deals with little guaranteed money.

Possible Cap Casualties

Cary Williams‘ middling performance and the struggles in the secondary as a whole would be enough to consider moving on from the Super-Bowl-winning cornerback, and a cap hit of more than $8.16MM for 2015 will only make that decision easier. Cutting Williams would save $6.5MM on the cap, according to OverTheCap.com.

A tougher decision for the Eagles will be Trent Cole, who has been a stalwart of the team’s defense for years, and remains productive. A pass-rushing expert, Cole has been a premier – if underrated – contributor for his entire career as an Eagle. His 85.5 career sacks puts him just outside the top 10 for active players, and place him second in franchise history. However, releasing Cole this offseason would result in cap savings of $8.425MM in 2015, followed by savings of $11MM and $14MM the next two years. If the team still wants to keep him, a restructure might be a possibility for Cole, who has expressed interest in playing his entire career with the team.

DeMeco Ryans tore his Achilles tendon and missed most of the 2014 campaign, leaving Kelly to call him the “Mufasa” of the team’s defense. Whether or not that reference was used properly, there is no doubt that Ryans was a leader on the team and that his absence would be felt. The team will likely want him back in 2015, but a $6.9MM cap hit may be too high for an inside linebacker coming off a serious injury.

Finally, LeSean McCoy is the rare running back who holds the highest cap number on his team’s books. Not many would argue that he’s not deserving of being one of the highest-paid players at his position, but even still, a cap hit approaching $12MM leaves restructuring a possibility.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

The Eagles will likely point to Fletcher Cox as a top priority this offseason. He graded out as a top five 3-4 defensive end in 2014 according to Pro Football Focus, alongside such names as J.J. Watt, Muhammad Wilkerson, Calais Campbell, and Sheldon Richardson. The team will almost certainly exercise its fifth-year option on Cox, but a long-term extension would be ideal.

Foles believes he should return as the starter in 2015, and if the Eagles agree, then an extension seems like a possibility. However, it’s not clear if the team is sold on the idea of Foles as its quarterback of the future. If he becomes available via trade, there will likely be potential suitors who believe in his abilities. The Eagles may covet a passer like Mariota, or another player more dynamic than Foles.

Overall Outlook

The Eagles are coming off a 10-win season that saw them narrowly miss the playoffs, and 2015 will likely represent a crossroads for Kelly’s regime. The club was able to stay afloat with the duo of Foles and Sanchez, but that shouldn’t mask the fact that the quarterback situation needs to be addressed. Of course, with the 20th pick in the draft and a lack of options in free agency, it will be extremely difficult to upgrade that spot. The dream would be Mariota falling, but that might just be a storyline that brings the city of Philadelphia false hope. A secondary option such as Brett Hundley far from guarantees an upgrade over Foles, now or in the future.

A more realistic spot to make significant upgrades is in the secondary, which held the entire defense back in 2014. Unfortunately for Eagles’ fans, the market for corners and safeties isn’t great this year after or Revis and Devin McCourty, who may not even become available. Players like Cromartie and Tramon Williams, or Byron Maxwell, Chris Culliver, and Davon House could be improvements, but adding one or two of those guys probably wouldn’t make the Eagles’ defense one of the top units in the league.

Coach Kelly will try his best to keep his team at double-digit wins and in the playoff hunt for a third straight year, but if he cannot return Foles to his 2013 form or find a better option, Kelly will have a hard time sustaining his early success over the long term.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extra Points: Bradford, Rice, Starks

February 14th, 2015 at 8:07pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

The Rams introduced their new offensive coordinator, Frank Cignetti, on Friday. The most significant information that came from Cignetti’s press conference was the vote of confidence given to quarterback Sam Bradford, writes NFL.com’s Kevin Petra.

Bradford, the No. 1 overall pick in 2010, has been inconsistent and injury prone during his five-year career, with an underwhelming 79.3 passer rating and just 49 of a possible 80 regular-season appearances. Bradford missed all of last season with a torn ACL and there was some question as to whether the Rams would bring him back in 2015, the final year of his deal, but head coach Jeff Fisher and Cignetti officially put such speculation to rest.

Asked if he wanted Bradford back next season, Fisher said, “That’s correct, yes. He’s been in the building since the season ended. He’s doing well,” according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Jim Thomas.

Fisher even said Bradford’s presence influenced the promotion of Cignetti, who was previously St. Louis’ quarterbacks coach.

Bradford’s cap number for next season is a whopping $16.58MM, and Thomas wrote earlier this week that the team hopes to restructure the 27-year-old’s contract.

Here’s more from around the NFL:

  • Clifton Brown of CSNBaltimore.com took a look at the factors working for and against Ray Rice in his quest to return to the league after a yearlong hiatus resulting from the 28-year-old’s assault of his then-fiancée. Working in Rice’s favor, according to Brown, is that the likes of Michael Vick and Richie Incognito recently found second chances after committing serious off-the-field offenses. Conversely, one of the reasons Rice might not find much of a market is his poor 2013 performance. Rice was among the worst starting running backs in the league that year, amassing just 660 yards and four touchdowns in 15 games. His 3.1 yards-per-carry average was significantly lower than his career mark (4.3).
  • Rich Tandler of CSNWashington.com sees “virtually no chance” of Washington using the franchise tag on anyone this offseason. Tandler notes that the $13.75MM cost for tagging outside linebacker Brian Orakpo would be too steep, and fellow free agents-to-be Niles Paul, Roy Helu and Jarvis Jenkins aren’t candidates to be among the five highest-paid players at their respective positions. Earlier this month, our own Luke Adams covered the possibility of Washington using the franchise tag this offseason, also concluding that it was unlikely.
  • Dolphins defensive lineman Randy Starks is one potential cap casualty who could make sense for the Patriots, tweets the Boston Globe’s Ben Volin. The 31-year-old Starks is scheduled to count $6MM against Miami’s cap in 2015.

Cornerback Notes: Cromartie, Gilbert, House

February 14th, 2015 at 6:13pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

Free agent Cardinals cornerback Antonio Cromartie reiterated his interest in returning to the Jets, tweets the New York Post’s Paul Schwartz. On rejoining the Jets, whom he spent the 2010-13 seasons with before they released him last year, Cromartie said, “It would be an easy choice, if the opportunity presented itself,” according to Schwartz. Cromartie racked up 13 interceptions and two Pro Bowl nods during his tenure in New York.

Here’s more on Cromartie and a couple of his fellow NFL corners:

  • The 31-year-old Cromartie spent 2014 with the Cardinals, for whom he appeared in all 16 regular-season games, amassed three interceptions and made another Pro Bowl. Cromartie’s defensive coordinator in Arizona was Todd Bowles, whom the Jets hired as their coach last month. Despite being in the midst of a four-year playoff drought and hiring a first-time head coach, Cromartie said, “I don’t think the Jets are rebuilding at all,” according to Schwartz.
  • The Browns‘ Justin Gilbert is drawing heat from team owner Jimmy Haslam. “Justin clearly needs to mature,” Haslam told reporters earlier this week, according to the Akron Beacon Journal’s Nate Ulrich. Gilbert, the eighth overall pick in 2014, totaled just 29 tackles and one interception during his rookie year. Despite his less-than-glowing appraisal of Gilbert, Haslam isn’t giving up on the 22-year-old, whom he called a “very gifted athlete.” Pro Football Talk’s Michael David Smith writes that Gilbert will be in danger of being labeled a bust if he doesn’t mature in his second year.
  • Finding a starting job will be the main priority for Packers free agent CB Davon House this offseason, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Tom Silverstein. “I don’t like the role just playing special teams, especially when I know I can contribute,” said House. The 25-year-old went on to acknowledge that, although he’d like to stay with the Packers, he doesn’t think he’ll be one of the team’s main priorities this offseason because Randall Cobb and Bryan Bulaga also need new contracts. “I won’t be back until they all get done. It makes no sense for me to get done before them,” he told Silverstein.

AFC Links: Johnson, Forsett, Spiller, Richardson

February 14th, 2015 at 4:44pm CST by Rob DiRe

The Jets declined the option on Chris Johnson earlier today, making him a free agent this offseason. Johnson played only one year in New York, and his release will save the team $3.5MM on the 2015 cap. Johnson figures to be available for even less than the two-year, $8MM contract he signed last offseason, but should be able to find work somewhere.

Here are some links surrounding AFC running backs this offseason:

  • Johnson was reportedly reluctant to consider the Ravens last offseason despite some interest from the organization, due to the presence of Ray Rice on the roster, according to Aaron Wilson of the Baltimore Sun (via Twitter). With his value another year diminished and no starting running back on the roster, he might reconsider Baltimore this time around. Of course, the team will likely try to keep revelation Justin Forsett (via Twitter). While the offense will likely change without Gary Kubiak at the helm, new offensive coordinator Marc Trestman is expected to keep the zone blocking scheme in place (via Twitter).
  • With Johnson out of the picture, the Jets could target Bills’ former first-round draft pick C.J. Spiller, writes Rich Cimini of ESPNNewYork.com. Chan Gailey was the head coach in Buffalo when Spiller was drafted, and Spiller experienced some of his best success in limited snaps early on there. He could be a great complement to Chris Ivory.
  • Trent Richardson had a tumultuous end to the 2014 season to say the least, and Matt Bowen of Bleacher Report wonders if he can be fixed. Bowen notes that scouts still swear by Richardson’s college tape. Bowen quotes two scouts as saying he was the best running back they ever graded at the college level. Still, he believes the former third overall pick needs to set new goals for himself in order for him to stay in the league long enough to change his image.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Julius Thomas

February 14th, 2015 at 4:17pm CST by Sam Robinson

One of the more rapid rising stars in the game, Julius Thomas presents an interesting case in his first foray into free agency. The two-year starting tight end made next to no impact in his first and second seasons, hampered by lingering ankle maladies. But his ensuing two slates create a robust market for the athletic, yet frequently unavailable target.

Does Thomas’ value lie in being an athletic tight end with elite ball skills, a package the Broncos haven’t unleashed since Shannon Sharpe, who played under then-offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak for most of the latter half of his career? Or is he an injury-prone Peyton Manning product? Since the 26-year-old Thomas morphed into a red zone dynamo, with 12 touchdown receptions in each of the past two seasons, and has positioned himself as this market’s top tight end, teams will bid big to find out.Julius Thomas

But the best offer for the 2011 fourth-round pick might not come from the Broncos. Now transitioning back to Kubiak’s offense, which relies heavily on tight ends blocking and not splitting out wide as much, with multiple other dominant free agents to take care of — including Demaryius Thomas and Terrance Knighton — Denver may not be able to afford Julius Thomas’ services. He may not even be in large font on the Broncos’ offseason itinerary considering the scheme change and the numerous ancillary free agents from their 2011 draft class, which is easily the best under fifth-year GM John Elway‘s watch.

Undrafted Pro Bowl cornerback Chris Harris re-upped for 5 years and $42.5MM, and first-rounder Von Miller will play out his fifth-year option on a $9.7MM cap number next season from that class. But Thomas, left guard Orlando Franklin and free safety Rahim Moore (second round), middle linebacker Nate Irving (third) and in-line tight end Virgil Green (sixth) are all free agents who played key roles last season.

Thomas, who played for just $645K last year, has understandably been lukewarm to the idea of a hometown discount, something to which Demaryius Thomas and Knighton have been receptive. With Demaryius Thomas likely to be slapped with the franchise tag, as we discussed Tuesday, the Broncos will need to reach a long-term contract with Julius Thomas to keep him around. Even though Elway reiterated his desire to keep Julius Thomas in Denver in January, per Nicki Jhabvala of the Post, the former Big Sky basketball standout already turned down a deal that would’ve made him one of the league’s top four highest-paid tight ends, a source told Kils in October. With a projected $26MM+ in cap space and more than a third of their starters unsigned, the Broncos likely won’t bring back all of their top three free agents and may be stuck with just one after franchising Demaryius Thomas, should Knighton also receive a strong offer considering his career metamorphosis the past two years.

The case for the Broncos bringing back Julius Thomas depends on which version of Manning they think they’re getting back. The future Hall of Fame quarterback has inflated the numbers for plenty of pass-catchers over the past 18 years, but assuming he returns for his age-39 season — this probably will be the case after the QB iterated his desire to return Friday night — he will need as much firepower as possible to keep the Broncos on their current course. Thomas’ reputation as a bigger wide receiver who is ill-equipped for Kubiak’s system may not be entirely accurate, either. The 6-foot-4, 251-pound Division I-FCS product improved from 2013 when Pro Football Focus (subscription required) tabbed him as the NFL’s second-worst run-blocking tight end to last season when the site gave Thomas a positive grade and slotted him at No. 33 in the category — just two spots behind Rob Gronkowski.

Former Broncos head coach John Fox and OC Adam Gase in a way validated Thomas’ market value by orchestrating a dramatic overhaul of the offense — to a C.J. Anderson-heavy ground approach — the week after Thomas encountered ankle turmoil for the fourth straight season. Not that there weren’t additional factors in Manning’s decline in the season’s second half, but the Broncos’ offense didn’t look the same without its top touchdown target. Without Thomas at full strength, a level he didn’t return to after his latest injury, Manning had just two games with a quarterback rating over 86 — against the Dolphins and Chargers, respectively. This precipitous fall came after Manning (22 TD passes and just three interceptions in the Broncos’ first seven games) charted just one game under 110 in a stretch that wasn’t a bad imitation of his 2013 MVP effort. Thomas had nine TD grabs during Denver’s peak span and three multi-score showings.

The case against re-signing Thomas hinges on what the Broncos do with Knighton, how much they want to invest in the aforementioned 2011 draft class, how much money they allocate to reshape their offensive line and, perhaps most importantly, whether they feel the tight end’s availability justifies his likely high re-up price. As TheMMQB’s Peter King summarized last year, Thomas considered giving up football after a persistent ankle injury he sustained in 2011 dogged him throughout his first two seasons. Overall, ankle problems forced him to miss 28 games in four years. But teams with shaky tight end outlooks — the Raiders, Cardinals and Browns, to name a few — likely won’t have as much of an issue with Thomas’ negatives, considering a player with these numbers rarely reaches free agency.

If Jared Cook and Kyle Rudolph could ink $7MM-per-year deals within the last couple years — Cook as a free agent with production nowhere near Thomas’ — Thomas has a good chance to earn top-five money at the position. That top five currently ends with Rudolph and starts with Jimmy Graham‘s $10MM-per-year contract signed last year, per OverTheCap.com.

Re-signing Green ($645K in his fourth season last year) or someone like Dolphins free agent Charles Clay makes sense if the Broncos don’t want to meet Thomas’ salary wishes, but for a team whose title window depends heavily on the success of an aging quarterback with fading arm strength, it might be prudent to keep his main weapons around — especially the one who is Manning’s preferred option to finish off drives. The cap math adds up better for the Broncos if Manning renegotiates his salary — something we learned on Friday he could be willing to do — which is set for $19MM and a $21.5MM cap hit.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

NFC East Links: Romo, Peterson, Gregory

February 14th, 2015 at 3:12pm CST by Rob DiRe

It will be a big offseason for some NFC East teams, as the division has seen a lot of turnover the past few years. With all four teams competitive, it wouldn’t be totally surprising to see the Cowboys going from first to worst or Washington to achieve the reverse. While both teams are setting themselves up for successful 2015 seasons, here are some links from around the NFC East:

  • Cowboys‘ starting quarterback Tony Romo turns 35 this April, and there may be some concerns about the signal-caller’s age, writes Jean-Jacques Taylor of ESPN.com. Taylor notes that since Jim Plunkett won Super Bowl XVIII, only two quarterbacks have led their team’s to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at age 35 or older. John Elway did it twice during the twilight of his career, and Tom Brady just a few weeks ago. Brady’s remarkable performance gives Taylor hope for Romo, showing that in the right offense and with the right coach, quarterbacks can continue to achieve into their late thirties. Romo has the benefit of a great offensive line and a consistent running game, and after being asked to throw the ball fewer than 30 times per game for the first time in his NFL career, the Cowboys might have the recipe for success with the old passer at the helm.
  • Dallas has big decisions to make regarding Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray, and those two have both been story lines followed closely at PFR. ESPN’s NFL Front Office takes a look at the conversations that could be going on in the Cowboys‘ headquarters. They note that giving Bryant a long-term extension is a general manager’s nightmare but a coach’s dream. The group also writes that re-signing Murray would be nice, but Adrian Peterson would be the home run choice.
  • ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. put together his second mock draft of the offseason this week, projecting Nebraska pass rusher Randy Gregory to be selected by Washington fifth overall. With Mariota currently falling to sixth, the best case scenario could be another quarterback-needy team moving heaven and earth to jump ahead of the Jets to select him, giving Washington leverage to make a big trade to move down in the draft, writes John Keim of ESPN.com. Keim also notes that while the team has needs at safety, corner, and along the offensive line, none currently look to be worthy of a top-five pick. If Washington targets wide receiver Amari Cooper, the team would have to hope he falls past Oakland at fourth overall.
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