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2015 Free Agents News & Rumors

Free Agent Stock Watch: Julius Thomas

February 14th, 2015 at 4:17pm CST by Sam Robinson

One of the more rapid rising stars in the game, Julius Thomas presents an interesting case in his first foray into free agency. The two-year starting tight end made next to no impact in his first and second seasons, hampered by lingering ankle maladies. But his ensuing two slates create a robust market for the athletic, yet frequently unavailable target.

Does Thomas’ value lie in being an athletic tight end with elite ball skills, a package the Broncos haven’t unleashed since Shannon Sharpe, who played under then-offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak for most of the latter half of his career? Or is he an injury-prone Peyton Manning product? Since the 26-year-old Thomas morphed into a red zone dynamo, with 12 touchdown receptions in each of the past two seasons, and has positioned himself as this market’s top tight end, teams will bid big to find out.Julius Thomas

But the best offer for the 2011 fourth-round pick might not come from the Broncos. Now transitioning back to Kubiak’s offense, which relies heavily on tight ends blocking and not splitting out wide as much, with multiple other dominant free agents to take care of — including Demaryius Thomas and Terrance Knighton — Denver may not be able to afford Julius Thomas’ services. He may not even be in large font on the Broncos’ offseason itinerary considering the scheme change and the numerous ancillary free agents from their 2011 draft class, which is easily the best under fifth-year GM John Elway‘s watch.

Undrafted Pro Bowl cornerback Chris Harris re-upped for 5 years and $42.5MM, and first-rounder Von Miller will play out his fifth-year option on a $9.7MM cap number next season from that class. But Thomas, left guard Orlando Franklin and free safety Rahim Moore (second round), middle linebacker Nate Irving (third) and in-line tight end Virgil Green (sixth) are all free agents who played key roles last season.

Thomas, who played for just $645K last year, has understandably been lukewarm to the idea of a hometown discount, something to which Demaryius Thomas and Knighton have been receptive. With Demaryius Thomas likely to be slapped with the franchise tag, as we discussed Tuesday, the Broncos will need to reach a long-term contract with Julius Thomas to keep him around. Even though Elway reiterated his desire to keep Julius Thomas in Denver in January, per Nicki Jhabvala of the Post, the former Big Sky basketball standout already turned down a deal that would’ve made him one of the league’s top four highest-paid tight ends, a source told Kils in October. With a projected $26MM+ in cap space and more than a third of their starters unsigned, the Broncos likely won’t bring back all of their top three free agents and may be stuck with just one after franchising Demaryius Thomas, should Knighton also receive a strong offer considering his career metamorphosis the past two years.

The case for the Broncos bringing back Julius Thomas depends on which version of Manning they think they’re getting back. The future Hall of Fame quarterback has inflated the numbers for plenty of pass-catchers over the past 18 years, but assuming he returns for his age-39 season — this probably will be the case after the QB iterated his desire to return Friday night — he will need as much firepower as possible to keep the Broncos on their current course. Thomas’ reputation as a bigger wide receiver who is ill-equipped for Kubiak’s system may not be entirely accurate, either. The 6-foot-4, 251-pound Division I-FCS product improved from 2013 when Pro Football Focus (subscription required) tabbed him as the NFL’s second-worst run-blocking tight end to last season when the site gave Thomas a positive grade and slotted him at No. 33 in the category — just two spots behind Rob Gronkowski.

Former Broncos head coach John Fox and OC Adam Gase in a way validated Thomas’ market value by orchestrating a dramatic overhaul of the offense — to a C.J. Anderson-heavy ground approach — the week after Thomas encountered ankle turmoil for the fourth straight season. Not that there weren’t additional factors in Manning’s decline in the season’s second half, but the Broncos’ offense didn’t look the same without its top touchdown target. Without Thomas at full strength, a level he didn’t return to after his latest injury, Manning had just two games with a quarterback rating over 86 — against the Dolphins and Chargers, respectively. This precipitous fall came after Manning (22 TD passes and just three interceptions in the Broncos’ first seven games) charted just one game under 110 in a stretch that wasn’t a bad imitation of his 2013 MVP effort. Thomas had nine TD grabs during Denver’s peak span and three multi-score showings.

The case against re-signing Thomas hinges on what the Broncos do with Knighton, how much they want to invest in the aforementioned 2011 draft class, how much money they allocate to reshape their offensive line and, perhaps most importantly, whether they feel the tight end’s availability justifies his likely high re-up price. As TheMMQB’s Peter King summarized last year, Thomas considered giving up football after a persistent ankle injury he sustained in 2011 dogged him throughout his first two seasons. Overall, ankle problems forced him to miss 28 games in four years. But teams with shaky tight end outlooks — the Raiders, Cardinals and Browns, to name a few — likely won’t have as much of an issue with Thomas’ negatives, considering a player with these numbers rarely reaches free agency.

If Jared Cook and Kyle Rudolph could ink $7MM-per-year deals within the last couple years — Cook as a free agent with production nowhere near Thomas’ — Thomas has a good chance to earn top-five money at the position. That top five currently ends with Rudolph and starts with Jimmy Graham‘s $10MM-per-year contract signed last year, per OverTheCap.com.

Re-signing Green ($645K in his fourth season last year) or someone like Dolphins free agent Charles Clay makes sense if the Broncos don’t want to meet Thomas’ salary wishes, but for a team whose title window depends heavily on the success of an aging quarterback with fading arm strength, it might be prudent to keep his main weapons around — especially the one who is Manning’s preferred option to finish off drives. The cap math adds up better for the Broncos if Manning renegotiates his salary — something we learned on Friday he could be willing to do — which is set for $19MM and a $21.5MM cap hit.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Market For Tight Ends

February 13th, 2015 at 10:27am CST by Luke Adams

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to tight ends. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

Coming into the 2014 season, Cameron and Clay looked like potential top-10 tight ends in the NFL, but both players took a step back over the last few months. Cameron’s drop-off was particularly precipitous, due in part to concussion problems — the Browns tight end caught just 24 passes after racking up 80 receptions in 2013. Still, both players have proven they’re capable of being reliable pass-catchers, so I expect we’ll see them draw plenty of interest from teams that can’t afford Thomas.

Thomas, of course, is the crown jewel of this year’s free agent class, and while he’d be a lock to be franchised by many teams, the Broncos may not have the flexibility to make such a move, since they’ll likely to have to use that tag on Demaryius Thomas. Battling injuries himself down the stretch, the Denver tight end might have seen his stock dip a little after coming out of the gates on fire in 2014, but he should still easily land the biggest contract this winter of any player at the position — a top-five TE salary is definitely within reach.

As for Gresham and Paul, their career arcs look quite different thus far, though they find themselves in similar situations this offseason. Gresham has always put up solid receiving numbers for the Bengals, but has never fully fit in Cincinnati, especially with the team looking to give Tyler Eifert a larger role in the offense. Paul, meanwhile, was nonexistent in Washington’s passing game until 2014, when he broke out with 39 catches and 507 yards. With Jordan Reed still under contract in D.C., Paul may be the odd man out.

Other unrestricted options:

Clubs looking for a pass catcher at tight end should focus primarily on those players in the first group, because there aren’t many here that could be relied upon for consistent production. Still, TE is a position at which pass-catching isn’t necessarily the be-all, end-all to being an effective player, and several of the guys in this group can contribute positive value even without running routes.

According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Fells, Green, Pascoe, and Spaeth all graded among the league’s best run blockers at the position. In fact, buoyed primarily by their strong run-blocking performances, Fells, Green, and Spaeth all ranked among PFF’s top 20 tight ends, placing well ahead of notable receiving TEs such as Heath Miller, Antonio Gates, and Coby Fleener. A club may not want to head into the 2014 season with Fells atop its depth chart at the position, but he’s certainly a respectable No. 2 option.

2015 may also be the last chance for Finley to make a comeback — having missed the better part of the last two seasons due to neck issues, the former Packers tight end may simply decide to call it a career and try to collect on his insurance policy. However, if he’s cleared by doctors to return to the field, I’d expect him to try to catch on with another team this year, and if he can prove he’s healthy, his upside should intrigue suitors.

Restricted FAs:

Considering these three players have combined for 32 career receptions, I don’t expect the bidding on their services to be all that competitive this offseason. It would be a surprise if any of them even received a restricted free agent tender from their current clubs, though they could still return to those teams at a lesser salary.

Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:

Free Agent Market For Wide Receivers

February 12th, 2015 at 8:54am CST by Luke Adams

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to wide receivers. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

No other position has the same sort of star power at the top as this year’s free agent group of receivers does. In fact, in our last installment of 2015’s free agent power rankings, four of our top eight players were wideouts, with Bryant, Thomas, Maclin, and Cobb all making the cut.

Still, it’s probably fair to assume that Bryant and Thomas, at least, won’t reach the open market. Their respective teams have the franchise tag at their disposal, and intend to use it if a long-term agreement can’t be reached. Maclin and Cobb, on the other hand, may not warrant a tag, so they’ll be worth watching as free agency nears. If they make it to the open market, long-term deals worth $10MM+ annually aren’t out of the question, considering how many receiver-needy teams have cap room to spare.

While those four players are probably in a tier of their own, Smith isn’t far behind, and Crabtree is only two years removed from an 1,100-yard season. The rest of the list is a mix of reliable veterans (Royal, Washington, Wayne), and players with some upside (Britt, Nicks, Shorts), though teams likely won’t want to make too significant an investment on a guy from either of those groups.

Other unrestricted options:

You could make the case that Welker should be in the top tier of free agent wideouts this offseason, but his history of head injuries, combined with declining production, has him mulling the possibility of retirement, and I don’t think he’s the same guy he was even two or three seasons ago. Nonetheless, he’s one of the more intriguing names among this group, which features a number of players who are either past their primes or have yet to fully realize theirs.

If you’re looking for a player with some upside here, you could do worse than the two Raiders, Brown and Denarius Moore. Jernigan, who turns 26 this year, is also an interesting option — he was poised to assume a much larger role in the Giants’ offense in 2014 before a foot injury cut his season short. Williams also may have something left in the tank after a lost season in Buffalo, but a team shouldn’t invest more than a minimum-salary contract to find out.

In fact, that probably applies to most players on this list. There’s an outside chance a club could find an impact performer in this group, but most of these guys will end up no higher than third or fourth on a team’s depth chart. Others may not even rank that highly, contributing primarily on special teams or in the return game rather than an offense.

Restricted FAs:

It’s not easy to pry away a restricted free agent from a team that wants to keep him, and I assume that will be the case for the more noteworthy names among this year’s RFA wideouts. Guys like Beasley, Holmes, Johnson, Kearse, and Streater should pique the interest of teams in need of wideouts, but I imagine their current clubs will submit contract tenders to bring them back.

In my view, Holmes is the most interesting player in this group, but considering how much cap room the Raiders have, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Raiders placed a higher tender on the 26-year-old to discourage rival suitors from courting him. Typically, a minimum-level RFA tender is enough to scare off potential bidders, but for less than $1MM, Oakland could increase its offer to a second-round tender, meaning that any club hoping to sign Holmes would have to part with a second-round pick to land him.

Previous looks at the 2015 free agent market:

Free Agent Market For Running Backs

February 10th, 2015 at 4:06pm CST by Luke Adams

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position. Today, we’ll turn our attention to running backs. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

While the free agent market for quarterbacks lacks a real difference-maker, that’s not the case at running back. The position may have become devalued in recent years, but the lack of impact deals in free agency last winter could largely be attributed to the lack of impact players available. If the NFL’s leading rusher (Murray) hits the open market, he’ll do very well, despite potential concerns about his 2014 workload, or about a production drop-off behind a new offensive line.

Murray isn’t the only potential starter in this group. Mathews and Ingram have been inconsistent since entering the league as first-round draft picks, but have shown plenty of promise, and should provide value if they can stay healthy. Gore and Forsett will both be on the wrong side of 30 by the end of 2015, but are coming off very impressive 2014 campaigns, and I’d bet on them having something left in the tank.

Outside of Murray, the most intriguing name on this list might be Spiller. Like Mathews and Ingram, he has been plagued by injuries in recent years, but his big-play ability makes him very appealing, especially if he comes on the cheap. I could envision Spiller approaching free agency the same way that Jeremy Maclin did a year ago, taking a one-year deal with the hopes of having a big season and landing a more sizable contract the following year.

Rounding out this top tier: Bradshaw and Ridley, who will look to return from season-ending injuries; and Helu and Vereen, who will appeal to teams looking to add a receiving threat out of the backfield.

Other unrestricted options:

Most of the notable names on this list have huge question marks hovering over them as they prepare to enter the open market. McFadden has averaged 3.4 yards per carry or less for three consecutive seasons; Moreno is coming off elbow and ACL injuries that ended his year prematurely; Tate played for three different teams in 2014 and didn’t do much to impress at any of those three stops; and Rice’s production appeared to be on the decline even before he lost a season dealing with the aftermath of his domestic violence incident.

Are there worthwhile backups and change-of-pace options among this group? Sure. McKnight and Antone Smith are a couple of home-run hitters who could shine for the right team, and Powell has shown some potential. There are also several veterans on this list who could contribute on special teams, either in kick coverage or in the return game, which will give them a little more value than the more one-dimensional backs.

Still, given the going rate for running backs these days, many of these players will likely sign minimum-salary contracts with modest guarantees for the 2015 season, if they land with a team at all.

Restricted FAs:

In many cases, these young backs are insurance policies for veteran starters, and while they may not be as cheap as restricted free agents as they were during their first three seasons, their respective teams should have interest in bringing them back.

I anticipate that players like Cadet, Polk, and Dunbar, who have spent all three seasons with their current teams, will be good candidates for the low-end restricted free agent tender. Rainey and Todman should also receive tenders, and may be the backs in this group most likely to draw interest from rival suitors. Neither player figures to head into 2015 as the top running back on his team’s depth chart, but they’ve both been productive in their limited opportunities.

Asiata is perhaps the most recognizable name here, if only because his nine touchdowns in 2014 made him a popular – if unreliable – fantasy football commodity. The 27-year-old has only averaged 3.5 yards per carry in over 200 career attempts, and is older than most of the other players on this list. But with Adrian Peterson a good bet to be traded or released by the Vikings, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Minnesota bring back Asiata.

Previously:

Free Agent Market For Quarterbacks

February 9th, 2015 at 2:32pm CST by Luke Adams

Our list of 2015 free agents provides a comprehensive position-by-position breakdown of which players are eligible to hit the open market this year. However, that list of names doesn’t include much context or additional information about those players. So, with March’s free agent period fast approaching, we’ll be taking a closer look this month at the free agent market for each position, starting today with quarterbacks. Let’s dive in….

Top unrestricted FAs:

Outside of Moore and Ponder – who have combined for more than 60 career NFL starts in past seasons – everyone in this group saw at least a little time in a starting lineup during the 2014 season. Of course, many of them didn’t finish the season as starters, or were only forced into duty due to injuries.

Nonetheless, if a club is looking to the free agent market for a veteran to compete for a starting job with its incumbent QB, this is probably the first group of players that team will consider. Sanchez and Hoyer are perhaps the top available options here, as both players showed several flashes of effectiveness as they led their respective teams to records of .500 or better during their starts.

Other intriguing names on this list include Mallett, who backed up Tom Brady for several seasons before getting a brief look in Houston; Locker and Ponder, 2011 first-rounders who were relegated to backup roles during the final year of their rookie contracts; and Moore, who has been one of the league’s most highly-paid No. 2 QBs for the last two seasons.

Other unrestricted options:

Whether you’re looking for a veteran who can play in a pinch (Campbell, Hasselbeck) or a younger option with some upside (Taylor, Tolzien), there’s something for everyone in this group — albeit not many names that inspire excitement.

McCoy and Clausen had some good moments during their limited playing time in 2014, and Jackson hasn’t been terrible during his stints as a starter. Still, none of those three players should be more than backups at this point in their playing careers, and the same goes for virtually everyone else on this list as well. In some cases, these guys were listed third on their respective teams’ depth charts.

I’d expect a good percentage of these players to return to their current teams, or to follow an old coach or coordinator to his new club. When it comes to backup quarterbacks, familiarity with an offensive system is crucial, and would certainly be a tiebreaker if the gap in talent between two players is marginal. Flynn might be the best example of this, as he hasn’t had much success anywhere besides Green Bay.

Restricted FAs:

Davis and Lindley saw some action in 2014, but neither player was overly effective — Lindley, in particular, had a ton of trouble moving the Cardinals’ offense when he was forced into action after injuries knocked out Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton. Generally, if a team wants to keep a restricted free agent, that team has most of the leverage, so if one of these players is wearing a different uniform in 2015, I expect it’ll be because his club had little to no interest in re-signing him.

Super Bowl XLIX Free Agent Performances

February 2nd, 2015 at 7:23pm CST by Ben Levine

It’s not realistic to expect a player’s value in free agency to drastically increase or decrease based on one game. However, if there is an opportunity for that future free agent to show the NFL what he’s got, it’s the Super Bowl.

There were plenty of impending free agents for both squads in last night’s game, and several of those players made major contributions. Let’s review how the looming free agents fared in Super Bowl XLIX, with the snap counts and ratings via Pro Football Focus’ advanced statistics (subscription required):

Patriots:

Active, but didn’t play or compile stats: LB Jonathan Casillas, LB Chris White, LS Danny Aiken
Injured reserve/inactives: RB Stevan Ridley, WR Brian Tyms LB James Morris

Seahawks:

Active, but didn’t play or compile stats: QB Tarvaris Jackson, OG Lemuel Jeanpierre, LB Michael Morgan, LB Malcolm Smith
Injured reserve: WR David Gilreath, TE Anthony McCoy, OG Stephen Schilling, LB Heath Farwell, DT D’Anthony Smith, DT Greg Scruggs

Free Agent Stock Watch: Nick Fairley

February 1st, 2015 at 3:54pm CST by Dallas Robinson

With the offseason around the corner, the Lions’ most pressing concern from a roster standpoint is undeniably the impending free agency of defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, who topped the most recent edition of our 2015 Free Agent Power Rankings. Reports had indicated the Detroit would consider all the options at its disposal to retain Suh, and today Chris Mortensen of ESPN reported that the Lions are in a good position to re-sign the All-Pro. But because Suh is expected to receive a contract that rivals the $100MM pact between J.J. Watt and the Texans, the Lions probably won’t be able to keep its other talented defensive tackle, fourth-year player Nick Fairley.Nick Fairley

Assuming a $140MM cap, the Lions will have approximately $15.4MM of 2015 cap space with which to work. Depending on how Suh’s potential extension is structured, much of that space could be already be spoken for. Mortensen’s report indicated that receiver Calvin Johnson could restructure his contract to create more financial flexibility for the club, allowing the Lions to re-sign Suh and add even more talent. Regardless, cap space in Detroit figures to be tight, leading Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press to tweet today that Fairley returning to the Motor City is a “long shot.”

Of course, the Lions could have had Fairley under team control for the 2015 season had they opted to exercise his fifth-year option last May. Because it selected Fairley in the first round of the 2011 draft, Detroit could have retained Fairley next season for a base salary in the neighborhood of $5.5MM. General manager Martin Mayhew & Co. opted to decline the option, and explained the decision as a motivational tactic, hoping to push Fairley into performing at high level in 2014. The maneuver created something of a Catch-22 — though Fairley did perform well last season, the Lions have now allowed him to hit free agency a year earlier than was needed.

Utilizing the fifth-year option decision as a strategy to motivate Fairley was an understandable move at the time, as the former 11th overall draft pick had failed to live up to expectations. The Auburn product started just 22 games during his first three seasons in the NFL, posting 12.5 sacks over that span. He had a nice season in 2012, grading as the fifth-best defensive tackle among 85 qualifiers per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). In ’13, however, Fairley slipped to to No. 31 per PFF, as his run defense grade slipped significantly.

In 2014, Fairley was playing at perhaps his highest level yet before suffering a sprained MCL and PCL in Week 8 — he didn’t play again the rest of the season. Despite his limited amounted of snaps (297), he still placed as the league’s 18th-best DT per PFF; his grade would have been better save for is -4.0 penalty mark. Fairley’s absence on the Detroit defense was tangible — though the unit ranked third in DVOA, it placed seventh in weighted DVOA, which more heavily factors more recent performance.

Fairley will be a part of a relatively strong free agent defensive tackle class, but assuming Suh remains in Detroit, Fairley would have a claim to the No. 1 spot at the position. He’s undoubtedly a top-five choice among DTs, with Terrance Knighton, Jared Odrick, and Dan Williams also intriguing FAs for clubs looking for interior defensive line help. Williams is a 3-4 nose tackle, so he probably won’t interest the same teams that look into Fairley; Knighton, as well, is more of a space-eater. Odrick is probably the most similar competitor among free agent tackles, and it’s notable that Fairley and Odrick produced the top two pass-rushing grades among FA defensive tackles, per PFF.

Given his uneven career performance and his recent injury history, Fairley certainly isn’t in line for a Watt/Suh/Gerald McCoy-type contract that averages more than $12MM per year. The Geno Atkins deal, with an AAV of roughly $10.7MM, is probably out of reach as well. Linval Joseph‘s five-year, $31.25MM pact with the Vikings, signed last offseason, is pretty clearly the floor for Fairley. Joseph was a bit younger than Fairley at the time he inked his contract, but Joseph had never played to the level that Fairely has demonstrated he’s capable of. As such, Fairley will probably be looking for a five-year deal with an AAV that pushes $7MM, with guarantees in the neighborhood of $13-14MM.

Fairley shouldn’t suffer from a lack of suitors, as clubs that perhaps had their eye on Suh can turn their attention to Fairley, provided Suh stays with the Lions. Teams such as the Raiders, Jaguars, Bengals, Broncos (should they lose Knighton), and Falcons (depending on scheme) all make sense for Fairley, who just turned 27 years old. He’s spent his career in a 4-3 defensive front, and given his pass-rushing acumen, it would likely serve him to stay in that scheme. But at 6’4″ and more than 300 pounds, he could conceivably play end in a 3-4 look, and interest clubs like the Chargers, Colts, and Titans, but again, his talents play up in a 4-3. Additionally, if former Lions head coach Jim Schwartz lands a role with a team, it will be interesting to see if he lobbies to bring in Fairley, his ex-pupil.

Fairley said back in August that he’d like to stay with the Lions, but given the massive contract that Suh will garner, it seems wholly unlikely Detroit can keep both its defensive tackles. The club was already spending the second-most on its defensive line in 2014, and that figure would surely rise with new contracts for both Suh and Fairley. Free agency now presents that most likely (and tantalizing) route for Fairely, who should do well on the open market.

2015 Free Agent Power Rankings

January 13th, 2015 at 9:09am CST by Dallas Robinson

Only four teams are left in the Super Bowl hunt, but even more importantly from a roster standpoint, less than two months remain until the start of the new league year and the beginning of free agency. We have seven more weeks of data since the previous edition of our free agent power rankings, and one player included in the prior list — Broncos cornerback Chris Harris — has signed an extension. With that in mind, let’s update our stock watch of the 2015 unrestricted free agent class:

1. Ndamukong Suh, DT: Already among the best available free agents heading into the stretch run, Suh ramped up his level of play during the last six games of the year, racking up four sacks and 21 tackles. He then posted a dominating performance during the Lions’ wild card round loss to the Cowboys, sacking Tony Romo twice, hurrying him five times, and registering his third-highest grade of the season per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Detroit general manager Martin Mayhew recently said the club would “leave every option open” with regards to retaining Suh, who turned 28 six days ago, but recent reports suggested that as many as 10 teams could be prepared to make “titanic pitches” to the star defensive tackle. PFR’s Luke Adams recently examined several Suh-related scenarios that could play out in the coming months, including the Lions working out a long-term agreement, using the franchise tag, or allowing the 2014 All-Pro to walk.

2. Justin Houston, OLB: Like Suh, Houston’s production in the final leg of the season was outstanding, as he posted an astounding nine sacks and 22 tackles during the Chiefs’ final five games — he took down Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers four times in Week 17 alone, hurrying him another three times. He finished the year with 22 sacks, which led the league and was just a half-sack shy of matching Michael Strahan’s all-time record. Houston, who turns 26 next Wednesday, graded out as the No. 1 3-4 outside linebacker per PFF; his +51.1 score was nearly double that of Pernell McPhee, the No. 2 finisher. There hasn’t been much news regarding Houston as of late, but the more time that passes without a long-term deal being agreed upon, the more likelier it becomes that Kansas City places the franchise tag on its pass-rusher.

3. Dez Bryant, WR: In November, reports indicated that Bryant’s camp didn’t believe they would agree to a multiyear pact with the Cowboys, meaning the star pass-catcher is likely to be franchise-tagged. Dallas has reportedly offered Bryant an extension worth $114MM over 10 years, but with just $20MM guaranteed. With the franchise tag figure for receivers expected to approach $13MM in 2015, it would make little sense for Bryant to accept such a deal. Bryant, who earned just $1.78MM in base salary this season, finished the year with 88 receptions for 1,320 yards and 16 touchdowns.

4. Demaryius Thomas, WR: Thomas, who turned 27 on Christmas Day, was solid down the stretch, averaging six receptions for 86 yards and a score over the Broncos’ final six games, before tacking on five catches for 59 yards and a touchdown in Denver’s playoff loss to the Colts on Monday; on the season, he caught 111 balls for more than 1,600 yards. In December, Thomas indicated that he was open to accepting a hometown discount to remain in Denver, noting that he was fond of playing with Peyton Manning. Now, with Manning’s future uncertain and the entire Broncos organization in a state of upheaval, it’s unclear if Thomas would offer those same sentiments. His preferences will likely be determined by the choice of head coach and Manning’s decision on retirement, but the club ultimately will have final say: if an extension can’t be worked out, the Broncos will almost certainly franchise-tag Thomas.

5. Jason Pierre-Paul, DE: Perhaps no player did more to raise his stock during the final stretch of the season than Pierre-Paul. During the Giants’ final six games, he registered nine sacks, five QB hits, and 15 QB hurries — also a stout run defender, JPP finished as PFF’s No. 6 overall 4-3 defensive end. Giants owner John Mara said in December that he’d be very surprised if Pierre-Paul wasn’t with New York next season, but JPP has been adamant that he won’t accept a hometown discount to stay with the team that drafted him in the first round in 2010. PFR’s Rory Parks took a look at Pierre-Paul’s contract situation last month, and estimated a contract in the neighborhood of five years, $80MM for the pass-rusher.

6. Randall Cobb, WR: One of only two members of this list who plays for a team that remains in the postseason, Cobb was able to stay healthy for all of 2014, something he’s had trouble with in the past. As of mid-December, there was no movement on extension talks between Cobb and the Packers. Cobb, who caught 91 passes for 1,287 yards and 12 touchdowns this season, could seek to match the five-year, $35MM contract signed by Eric Decker last offseason. As Luke noted in the link above, however, Green Bay may want to ensure that Cobb doesn’t earn more than No. 1 receiver Jordy Nelson, who inked a four-year, $39MM extension during the summer. The youngest player on this list, Cobb won’t turn 25 until August.

7. Devin McCourty, S: With Harris off the board, McCourty is now the top defensive back available among free agents. Aside from Brandon Flowers (who will be 29 when next season begins) there aren’t many options at cornerback, so teams looking for secondary help will have to turn to McCourty, who stands alone in a FA safety class that contains middling players like Chris Conte and Rahim Moore. McCourty, 27, will hit free agency with his stock high — he rated as the league’s eighth-best safety per PFF after racking up 54 tackles and two interceptions for the Patriots this season. On December 14, Jeff Howe of the Boston Herald reported that there was “nothing happening” between McCourty and New England regarding an extension. I examined McCourty, a 2010 first-round pick, as an extension candidate in November, projecting that he could match Jairus Byrd‘s $9MM AAV.

8. Jeremy Maclin, WR: Maclin didn’t finish the season as strong as some of the others on this list — he averaged just five receptions for 56 yards during the Eagles’ final six games, and scored only once during that time. Maclin was adjusting to playing with a new quarterback in Mark Sanchez, however, who trailed off after a hot start and seemed to favor slot receiver Jordan Matthews at times. Nevertheless, Maclin enjoyed a strong comeback season in 2014, catching 85 balls for more than 1,300 yards while playing under a one-year, prove-it deal worth $6MM. Eagles head coach Chip Kelly said in December that it was a priority to retain Maclin, whom Luke projected could surpass Decker’s contract.

9. Jerry Hughes, EDGE: The most unheralded player on this list, Hughes has been a revelation with the Bills since being considered a bust after Indianapolis selected him in the first round of the 2010 draft. In 2014, he posted 10 sacks and graded as the 14th-best 4-3 defensive end in the league per PFF — he’d have placed much higher if not for his -9.1 penalty grade. He’d fit in either a 3-4 or a 4-3 look; in new Buffalo head coach Rex Ryan’s scheme, he’d work best as an OLB. In late December, Hughes indicated he would not be open to accepting a hometown discount to remain in Buffalo. It’s conceivable that he could garner $10MM annually on the open market.

10. Greg Hardy, DE: The most difficult player to slot on these rankings, Hardy played in just one game in 2014 before being placed on the commissioner’s exempt list after being charged in a domestic violence incident. The league is extremely sensitive to cases like Hardy’s, as it should be, and it’s beyond PFR’s purview to determine what the proper penalty for Hardy’s actions should be. But the fact remains that NFL teams pay for production, and Hardy is extremely productive. He posted consecutive double-digit sack seasons in 2012 and 2013, grading as a top-six 4-3 defensive end per PFF in both years. With his trial date set for February 9, Hardy should have some sort of resolution regarding his status shortly. If not for his off-the-field baggage, the 2010 sixth-rounder would easily be in the top half of this list, if not in the top three.

Dropped out: Chris Harris, CB (signed extension); Julius Thomas, TE; DeMarco Murray, RB

Joel Corry On Worst Salary Cap Situations

December 25th, 2014 at 10:18am CST by Rob DiRe

On Christmas Eve, Joel Corry of CBS Sports took a look at a few NFL teams who have the worst salary cap situations going into 2015. He picked out the five organizations stuck deepest in salary cap hell:

  1. New Orleans Saints – $23.07MM over the cap
  2. Arizona Cardinals – $6.44MM
  3. Pittsburgh Steelers – $2.901MM
  4. New England Patriots – $1.945MM
  5. San Francisco 49ers – $928,000

Here are some of the highlights of actions Corry suggests that would help them get under the cap in order to have a successful offseason:

Saints

  • Pass rusher Junior Galette could see his contract restructured to open up $10MM, despite signing the extension this past offseason.
  • Another contract doled off last offseason that can be restructured is of prized free agent Jairus Byrd, which could open up $5.6MM in cap space.
  • A third contract from last offseason that can be restructured is that of tight end Jimmy Graham. That move could save $4.77MM in cap space.
  • Both of their Pro Bowl guards are suddenly highly paid luxuries as they have seen their performance drop, and Jahri Evans and Ben Grubbs are candidates for release. If cut, they will free up $6.6MM and $3.6MM, respectively.
  • Veteran receiver Marques Colston holds a $9.7MM cap number, and has seen a sharp decline in his play. It will be a tougher cut, but is a candidate to be released.
  • The team could restructure Drew Brees‘ contract again, although they will only push their cap problems into the future in exchange for immediate relief.
  • Releasing linebacker David Hawthorne will free up $2.99MM in cap space if he is released before his $2.5MM roster bonus on the third day of the 2015 league year.

Cardinals

Steelers

Patriots

  • The obvious move for the Patriots would be signing Darrelle Revis to a long-term deal, which would create substantial cap space. The team is unlikely to keep him in 2015 at his current number. They will open $20MM in cap space if they do not keep him on the roster.
  • The Patriots could open up $4MM in cap space by restructuring Tom Brady‘s contract.
  • The team will likely ask linebacker Jerod Mayo to take a pay cut, or they may release him. Corry writes that his $4.5MM injury guarantee will be the only thing that potentially saves him from being released.
  • Danny Amendola will be expendable, and cutting him will free up $2.1MM in cap room or $4.5MM if he is designated a post June 1st cut.
  • Vince Wilfork could also become a cap casualty, as the team will have to decide whether to guarantee his contract for 2015 and 2016. Releasing him will free up $7.566MM in cap room.
  • The team could also recoup some money from Aaron Hernandez‘ signing bonus if the grievance ruling comes back favorable for the Patriots.

49ers

  • The 49ers could restructure Colin Kaepernick‘s contract to lower his 2015 cap number.
  • Linebacker Ahmad Brooks may be released, freeing up a little over $4MM in cap room.
  • Another staple of the team, Vernon Davis, could be released as performance has dropped. The team would gain $4.95MM from releasing him.
  • If Aldon Smith‘s off-field troubles are too much for the 49ers, the team could decline his 2015 option and pick up $9.754MM in cap space.
  • The team could pass on re-signing Michael Crabtree, and will likely cut Stevie Johnson and save just over $6MM unless they lose Crabtree and replace him with Johnson.
  • The team will most likely not seek to bring Frank Gore back to the team, unless it is at an extremely reasonable number.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Mark Sanchez

December 7th, 2014 at 4:45pm CST by Dallas Robinson

After being selected fifth overall in the 2011 draft, and subsequently leading the Jets to the AFC Championship game in each of his first two NFL seasons, Mark SanMark Sanchezchez‘s career in New York came to an ignominious end earlier this year. He missed the entire 2013 season after suffering a shoulder injury during a preseason game, and was released on March 21, a week after free agency began. Sanchez quickly joined the Eagles, signing a one-year contract worth $2.25MM to act as Nick Foles‘ backup.

It’s possible that Sanchez, given his lack of success with the Jets, was unable to find a starting role on the free agent market. However, many theorized that the USC product wanted to latch on with Chip Kelly & Co. in Philadelphia, play in a more dynamic offense than the one he struggled in in New York, and face better free agency prospects in 2015. If that was Sanchez’s plan, it certainly worked out, as he excelled during the preseason, leading to trade speculation even before the regular season got underway. And while Sanchez surely wasn’t hoping for an injury to lead to his ascension to the starting QB job, Foles’ broken collarbone has allowed Sanchez to seize the signal-calling reins in Philadelphia.

Since becoming the starter in Week 8, Sanchez has performed well, completing more than 63% of his passes for 1,404 yards, eight touchdowns, and six interceptions, leading the Eagles to a 4-1 record and maintaining the top spot in the NFC East. Advanced metrics aren’t as complimentary of Sanchez — Pro Football Focus grades him as just the 26th-best QB in the league since Week 8 (subscription required), while Football Outsiders ranks him 29th in DVOA (a rate stat that doesn’t penalize for lack of playing time).

Nevertheless, Sanchez has kept the Eagles afloat in Foles’ absence, as Philadelphia’s offense has continued to function with its backup under center. Because of that, it’s fair to look at the possibility of Sanchez remaining with the Eagles for 2015 and beyond. A November report suggested that Foles’ future with the club was in jeopardy, as general manager Howie Roseman had grown frustrated with the third-year QB and had already begun researching alternatives. Kelly later denied the report’s implications, but it’s apparent that Foles is not the ideal quarterback for Kelly’s system. Sanchez probably isn’t the prototype for a Kelly offense either, but most insiders believe that he has more impressive physical tools than Foles.

The Eagles also have second-year quarterback Matt Barkley on the their depth chart, and while he’s not a candidate to see significant playing time, it speaks to the muddled QB situation in Philly. Ideally, Kelly would surely prefer to add a quarterback like Oregon’s Marcus Mariota — a mobile, dual-threat option perfectly suited to his offensive scheme. With that an unlikely possibility, the Eagles could look to retain both Sanchez and Foles, and let the two engage in a training camp battle. However, Sanchez would probably want to be promised a starting job, so if he does return to Philadelphia, Foles could become trade bait.

The more likely scenario, though, sees Sanchez depart Philadelphia in search of a long-term deal that ensures him a starting gig. He shouldn’t have trouble finding a job, especially because quarterback talent is so diffucult to acquire. With even mid-tier options like Andy Dalton and Alex Smith receiving big money extensions, the QB market is usually barren, so a mediocre talent such as Sanchez can be rewarded on the open market. Additionally, Sanchez is clearly the No. 1 option among free agent quarterbacks. Brian Hoyer is the only other FA QB whom teams might feel comfortable employing as a starter, and it’s safe to say that Sanchez will be in higher demand than the Browns quarterback.

So where does Sanchez fit? PFR’s Luke Adams recently examined the state of the quarterback position around the league and identified eight teams who have no clear-cut 2015 starter. The Jets probably don’t want to reunite with its former draft pick, and the Bills, Browns, Buccaneers, and Titans will probably turn to internal options or a high draft-pick next season. By my estimation, that leaves three teams that could show heavy interest in Sanchez during the offseason — the Texans, Washington, and the Rams.

We’ll place the Texans and Washington in one bucket, as I think their level of intrigue regarding Sanchez could be similar. The Texans have all the pieces of a contending team in place except for a capable quarterback; Arian Foster is one of the best running backs in the league, and J.J. Watt and the rest of Houston’s defense is excellent. The QB combination of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Ryan Mallett has been lackluster this season, however, limiting the Texans’ upside. Fitzpatrick is under contract for 2015 but isn’t guaranteed any money, while Mallett is injured and will be a free agent at season’s end, though the team has expressed interest in retaining him. The club also has rookie Tom Savage, but Sanchez could add the boost the team needs to get over the hump.

Unlike Houston, Washington doesn’t have a solid core to build around. The team has a few sound offensive pieces, but its offensive line and its defense could use some work. Regardless, the club is expected to move on from Robert Griffin III during the offseason, leaving a void at quarterback that neith Colt McCoy nor Kirk Cousins will likely be able to fill. Head coach Jay Gruden runs a offensive scheme that has some similarities to that of Kelly, with an air attack that focuses on accuracy and quick passes. It’s a system that Griffin has failed to grasp, but one that Sanchez could potentially thrive in.

The best destination for Sanchez, though, might be St. Louis, where Sam Bradford is expected to be released after suffering yet another major injury. Like the Texans, the Rams have pieces in place to contend — Tre Mason and Stedman Bailey highlight a young offensive core, while the Rams’ defense ranked 10th in defensive DVOA even before today’s shutout of Washington. St. Louis showed interest in Sanchez before the season, and Rams offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer is familiar with Sanchez from the duo’s time in New York. As PFR’s Rob DiRe passed along last week, competent quarterback play could vault St. Louis into contention in the NFC West.

As Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap wrote in November, a player of Sanchez’s caliber could generally expect ~$2MM to act as a serviceable backup. Now that he’s proven his ability to return to a starting role, however, Sanchez could be looking for a larger contract. A handful of comparable QBs signed free agent contracts prior to this season — Kyle Orton joined the Bills on a two-year, $11MM pact ($5.5MM guaranteed), and Matt Cassel re-signed with the Vikings on a two-year deal worth $10.5MM ($5.25MM in guarantees). Sanchez has youth, upside, and better production on his side, so he can probably garner a more favorable deal than either Orton or Casseel did. A three-year pact in the $18-20MM range, with perhaps $8MM guaranteed, sounds about right, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s the Rams that offer that figure to Sanchez.

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