The Patriots’ win Monday night gave the AFC two two-loss teams (and zero three-loss squads) exiting Week 13, forming a mid-2010s-like duel for the No. 1 seed with the Broncos. In the NFC’s race for the bye slot, the picture is much cloudier.
As it stands, the NFC has a host of teams in contention for that No. 1 spot. The Bears currently hold it, but a fierce challenge appears ahead for Ben Johnson‘s resurgent team. Chicago sits at 9-3, but so do the Rams and Seahawks. Because of their tie in Dallas, the Packers are 8-3-1. The Eagles’ Week 13 loss to the Bears hurts their cause, but the defending Super Bowl champions are 8-4. The 49ers are 9-4, creating an interesting race with five weeks left.
The Bears have not earned a top seed since 2006, though their second-seeded squad advanced to the 2010 NFC title game. The Bears have not managed a playoff win since. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the current NFC leader a 12% chance of holding the top spot. That figure sits fifth in the conference.
While the Johnson hire has proven the catalyst for the Bears’ climb — after four straight playoff absences — the team’s decision to overhaul its offensive line has played a big role as well. The trades for Jonah Jackson and Joe Thuney, along with the Drew Dalman signing, has helped the Bears rank second in pass block win rate and fourth in run block win rate this season. This group powered D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai to 100-yard days in Philly on Black Friday. The team also saw Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon, whose offseason extension topped the slot cornerback market, activated from IR for the stretch run.
Chicago, however, closes with four games against over-.500 teams; the Bears draw the Packers twice and have games against the 49ers and Lions. In addition to the two Bears tilts, the Packers have a Denver trip to make along with a Week 17 Ravens matchup. ESPN’s FPI gives Green Bay a 17% chance to hold the No. 1 seed. The Packers earned back-to-back No. 1 seeds — in 2020 and ’21 — but have not come especially close to such real estate during Jordan Love‘s starter run.
Love has shown more growth in 2025, ranking third in QBR despite the team battling major issues in its pass-catching corps. Tucker Kraft is out for the season, and the team has not had Jayden Reed — its leading receiver in 2023 and ’24 — available since Week 2. Reed is in the IR-return window, and the Packers have seen Christian Watson — who returned midseason from an ACL tear — step forward along with Romeo Doubs. The Pack have not seen too much from first-round pick Matthew Golden, however, and the Kraft-to-Luke Musgrave gap appears wide despite the latter being drafted earlier in 2023.
The Packers did not exactly ride defense to those bye slots earlier this decade, with that unit being unreliable for most of Aaron Rodgers‘ stay. But Jeff Hafley‘s unit ranks sixth in scoring and fourth in yardage. EPA is a bit more skeptical, slotting the Pack 14th defensively. The team’s Micah Parsons blockbuster trade/extension sequence has made an impact. Parsons’ 36 pressures trail only Myles Garrett (39) this season; the ex-Cowboy dynamo has 12.5 sacks — already just 1.5 shy of a career high.
Concerns about Matthew Stafford‘s summer back injury were overblown, and the 17th-year quarterback is pushing for an MVP — an accomplishment that would strengthen a Hall of Fame case light on accolades. The one-time original-ballot Pro Bowler’s 32:4 TD-INT ratio has powered the Rams, who have benefited from their Cooper Kupp-to-Davante Adams upgrade. The NFL’s active touchdown reception leader (117) has a league-high 14 this season.
L.A. has also benefited from good injury fortune this season. Until Rob Havenstein‘s setback, the Rams’ O-line has rebounded from injury-plagued campaigns, with Puka Nacua also avoiding IR. Chris Shula‘s defense ranks second in points, putting him on the radar to become the third Shula appointed an NFL HC. FPI gives the Rams, who have not held the No. 1 seed since 2001, a 30% chance to do so — tops in the conference. The Rams have three games against sub-.500 teams, though they do face the Lions and Seahawks as well.
Seattle limited Stafford in a Week 11 loss, but Sam Darnold‘s four-INT day impeded a road win. The Seahawks have otherwise seen Darnold reward them for another offseason QB gamble, as they gave the nomadic QB a three-year, $100.5MM deal days after trading Geno Smith. Darnold is all but certain to collect the additional $17.5MM due in February. While Kupp has stayed healthy, he only has 438 receiving yards. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has rendered that a minor concern, as his NFL-most 1,336 have him gunning for Calvin Johnson‘s single-season record (1,964), setting up the 2023 first-rounder for a monster extension; he is eligible for a new deal in January.
Mike Macdonald‘s defense has surpassed expectations, ranking third in points allowed and EPA per play. Byron Murphy has taken a major step forward, going from a half-sack as a rookie to seven this season, while the DeMarcus Lawrence and Ernest Jones signings have paid off as well. The Hawks will need to upend the Rams to have a realistic shot at the 1 seed, and they also have games against the 49ers, Colts and Panthers. FPI gives Seattle a 16% chance at what would be its first 1 seed since 2014.
San Francisco is somehow 8-4 despite losing Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and Mykel Williams for the season — along with Brock Purdy for much of it. The recently extended starter has not played especially well, but he is not expected to be 100% after a turf toe injury until the offseason. Mac Jones‘ two-year, $7MM contract has proven to be a bargain, as the once-maligned QB has gone 5-3 as a starter this season. Jones ranks 10th in QBR. Robert Saleh‘s return has also aided the 49ers, who rank eighth defensively (though, EPA is far more skeptical, slotting Saleh’s crew 24th).
Given a 15% chance at claiming what would be their third No. 1 seed of the Kyle Shanahan era, the 49ers follow their Titans matchup with games against the Colts, Bears and Seahawks. Only one road game (Indianapolis) remains on San Francisco’s docket.
FPI gives the Eagles only an 8% chance at the top seed, despite the team’s head-to-head Rams tiebreaker. Philly’s latest OC change, installing longtime Nick Sirianni coworker Kevin Patullo in the play-calling role, has keyed an uneven Super Bowl title defense. Saquon Barkley has not come close to matching his stratospheric 2024 form, and QBR ranks Jalen Hurts 19th. Top O-lineman Lane Johnson has a Lisfranc injury, though he is not on IR, while more A.J. Brown drama has unfolded ahead of likely 2026 trade rumors.
While Vic Fangio‘s defense looked better following some deadline trades (most notably the Jaelan Phillips move), it surrendered 281 rushing yards to the Bears after a collapse in Dallas. The Eagles’ schedule does cooperate for a potential third No. 1 seed since 2017. After a game against a potentially Justin Herbert-less Chargers team, two Commanders tilts await. Philly does have a Buffalo trip in Week 17, however.
Who will end up claiming the NFC’s top seed? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.
