NFL Mailbag: Lottery, Dak, Lions, Colts
This week's edition of the PFR mailbag looks into a potential NFL draft lottery while also answering questions on a hypothetical Dak Prescott trade, the futures of the Lions and Colts, and more.
Jake asks:
Do you think the NFL should consider implementing a lottery like the other major sports have? This Giants-Raiders matchup features a far greater reward for losing, and it's obviously not the first such game. Wouldn't it be better if the league had a key protection measure for instances like this?
I’m elated to get a question on this topic based on the endorsement it will allow me to make, but we’ll get to that in a moment. My short answer on the idea of a lottery being worth consideration is yes.
I don’t see overt tanking as a problem to the same extent as it is in, say, Major League Baseball. With no minimum budget for rosters in baseball, teams can (and do) decide to remain non-competitive for years on end by simply not spending anywhere near the level of contenders. In the NFL, this isn’t an issue thanks to the rule requiring teams to spend (more or less) to the cap on an annual basis.
Teams Expected To Call Bengals On QB Joe Burrow
Four years ago, a second-year starting quarterback in Joe Burrow was following up a rookie campaign that ended with season-ending knee surgery to repair tears to his ACL and MCL and damage to his PCL and meniscus by preparing for a playoff run that would ultimately see the Bengals fall four points shy of its first ever Super Bowl victory. Still, somehow, teams will likely be calling Cincinnati this offseason with sincere belief that they may be able to trade for the former No. 1 overall pick, per Jonathan Jones of CBS Sports. 
Injuries and defensive woes have caused some turbulence for the young passer in Cincinnati this year. We have seen these things affect him in the past, with injuries limiting him to 10 games in his rookie season then again in 2023 and with last year’s bottom-10 defense preventing a campaign fueled by his MVP-worthy efforts to even extend into the playoffs.
This year, though, we’ve heard Burrow voice some understandable concerns that could point to a small, potential rift, leaving a thread at which several teams seem eager to pull.
After Burrow made a faster-than-expected return from an injury that many expected to end his 2025 season, the 29-year-old made some comments that drew many around the media into speculation that he may be contemplating retirement or struggling with his mental health. Burrow had simply expressed that “if (he wants) to keep doing this, (he has) to have fun doing this.” He looked back at how much he’d gone through, and asked, “If it’s not fun, then what am I doing it for?”
He made sure to specify later on that his comments were aimed at football in general and did not specifically have anything to do with his relationship with the Bengals. He also cleared up that he wasn’t considering ending his career so early, à la Andrew Luck. As the weeks wore on, reports began to naturally point to Burrow remaining in Cincinnati next year, despite the team’s struggling defense leading to another failed bid at a postseason.
Our previously most recent update on the matter — coming just yesterday — continued to emphasize that there is no indication Burrow wants out of Cincinnati or that the Bengals have any intention of moving him. Jones report from today underlines that fact, as well. Regardless, Jones’ sources report anticipation that “several teams will attempt a pursuit of trading for Burrow in the offseason,” with one executive candidly stating that “there are probably only a handful (of teams) that wouldn’t, at least, make an attempt.”
Burrow does own one similarity with Luck in that he is the same age Luck was at the time of his sudden retirement, but Jones pointed to another comparison. Jones linked Burrow to another former No. 1 overall pick that, despite decent individual success, was unable to get over the hump in Cincinnati to win a Super Bowl: Carson Palmer.
While Burrow boasts two Comeback Player of the Year awards that Palmer didn’t win, both only had two Pro Bowl selections on their résumé at this stage in their careers. Following his seventh year with the Bengals, Palmer requested a trade. When team owner/president Mike Brown turned down Palmer’s request, Palmer threatened to retire and followed through on his threat in an interview during the 2011 NFL Draft. As a result, Cincinnati drafted TCU passer Andy Dalton in the second round and, when Palmer failed to report to training camp, traded the veteran to Oakland — for first- and second-round picks — before the October trade deadline.
Now, clearly, Burrow has not requested a trade or made any such threats, but if every team in the NFL — apart from a handful of teams — is vying for his services and he sees an opportunity to have fun playing football elsewhere, the blueprint exists for history to repeat itself, though the Raiders likely wouldn’t be the beneficiaries this time around. For now, though, the Bengals should continue to nurture their relationship with the star quarterback in preparation for the wave of suitors sure to pursue this offseason.
Lions Could Explore Offseason OC Change
Lions head coach Dan Campbell indicated that changes may be coming in Detroit after the team was eliminated from the playoffs on Christmas.
“I’m gonna be looking at a lot,” Campbell said (via Colton Pouncy of The Athletic).“I’m gonna be looking at a lot of things, because I do not like being home for the playoffs.”
Among them could be a change at offensive coordinator. Pass game coordinator John Morton took over the job after Ben Johnson left in the offseason. He got the Lions offense off to a hot start before slowing around midseason. Campbell took over play-calling in Week 10 and the unit bounced back. However, they could not carry a decimated Detroit defense into the playoffs.
Though the offense finished fourth in points and sixth in yards, Campbell could still consider swapping out his offensive coordinator this offseason, per CBS Sports’ Jonathan Jones. That would indicate he wants to hand play-calling duties back to another coach, which could also be a factor in attracting the best candidates. While the Lions’ job would be a step up for any offensive assistant, the availability of play-calling duties could draw coordinators who work under offensive head coaches and do not call plays. Those coordinators could jump at the chance to work with the Lions’ talented roster and strengthen their candidacy for a future head coaching gig.
An obvious wellspring of potential OC talent is in Chicago, where Johnson has quickly developed one of the league’s top offenses. He brought multiple assistants with him from Detroit, including wide receivers coach Antwaan Randle El and quarterbacks coach J.T. Barrett. Bears OC Declan Doyle also worked with Campbell in New Orleans, though the Bears could block Doyle from interviewing for the same position with the Lions.
Of course, Morton still played a role in the Lions’ offensive success in the past three years and may be more comfortable calling plays after going through some bumps in his debut year. Campbell could also decide to hold onto play-calling duties and keep Morton to run the rest of the offense.
Vikings, WR Jalen Nailor Have Not Discussed Extension
The Vikings have one massive receiver contract on their books already in the form of Justin Jefferson. Keeping Jordan Addison in the fold over the long term will also require a lucrative commitment. 
As a result, Jalen Nailor could be on his way toward free agency shortly. 2025 marks the final year of his rookie contract, and ESPN’s Kevin Seifert writes no “substantive” talks on an extension have taken place to date. As such, a departure on the open market this spring would come as little surprise in Nailor’s case.
Upon entering the league as a sixth-round pick, Nailor was unable to make an impact early in his career. He totaled just 12 receptions in 21 games across the 2022 and ’23 seasons, but things changed last year. Nailor saw his offensive snap share jump to 51% in 2024, and he set new career highs in several categories (28 receptions, 414 yards, six touchdowns). Those figures still stand as a personal watermark at this point, although he will have one more game to add to this season’s production.
Jefferson is attached to an AAV of $35MM; that ranks second at the receiver position. Addison is approaching the end of his third season, meaning he will soon be eligible for an extension. The Vikings could pick up Addison’s fifth-year option during the spring and in doing so ensure he remains under team control through 2027. Even so, a more expensive pact could be in store down the road in that case. Having two notable WR contracts on the books would of course leave it challenging for Nailor to secure a second Minnesota pact.
The 26-year-old has logged a 65% snap share in 2025, a season in which he has seen a career-high 50 targets. The Vikings have largely struggled in the passing game this year, but they will have other priorities to address over the coming months. The team’s future in terms of WR3 options will also include Tai Felton, who was selected in the third round of this year’s draft.
The list of pending free agents at the receiver positions includes George Pickens, Alec Pierce, Romeo Doubs and Rashid Shaheed. Nailor will not be the top earner amongst that group, but he could be in line for a considerable raise on his next contract. It appears as though it will send him to a new team.
Saints Sign Charlie Smyth To Multiyear Deal
DECEMBER 27: Smyth’s new pact does not contain any guaranteed money, per Schefter’s colleague Katherine Terrell. Even at the league minimum (just over $1MM in 2026; $1.2MM the following year), though, it certainly represents a notable raise compared to his recent practice squad compensation.
DECEMBER 20: Northern Ireland native Charlie Smyth took over as the Saints’ kicker in late November. Three weeks later, the Saints are clearly satisfied with the results. They’ve signed Smyth to a three-year contract, according to Adam Schefter of ESPN.
This is the second three-year pact for Smyth, who joined the Saints in March 2024 as part of the NFL’s international player pathway program. He played Gaelic football before moving to the United States.
Smyth spent all of last season and most of this year on the Saints’ practice squad. Blake Grupe, who’s now a Colt, served as New Orleans’ kicker until the team waived him on Nov. 25. The Saints brought in veteran Cade York on a practice squad deal at the time, but they instead turned to Smyth as Grupe’s replacement.
While it’s a small sample of work, Smyth has been more accurate than Grupe. The Saints cut ties with Grupe after he made just 18 of 26 field goals over 11 games this year. Smyth has connected on 4 of 5 field goals and all five extra point tries through three games.
The 24-year-old immediately made his mark in his debut in Week 13. Although the Saints lost to the Dolphins, Smyth hit a 56-yarder and also pulled off a successful onside kick. He went on to nail a game-winning 44-yarder in an upset over the Panthers last Sunday. The Saints waived York on Thursday, leaving Smyth as the only kicker in the organization.
Giants Place Four On IR
The Raiders have moved Brock Bowers to injured reserve and shut down Maxx Crosby for the remainder of the season in advance of their Week 17 game. The Giants will likewise be shorthanded tomorrow. 
New York has placed left tackle Andrew Thomas, center John Michael Schmitz, safety Tyler Nubin and defensive lineman D.J. Davidson on injured reserve, per a team announcement. IR stints require an absence of at least four weeks. The Giants have long been out of playoff contention, so today’s news ensures none of the four players listed will play again in 2025.
Thomas and Schmitz had already been ruled out for Week 17, leaving the Giants thin up front for their critical game against the Raiders. Both teams are currently 2-13, and the loser will have pole position for the No. 1 selection in April’s draft. It comes as no surprise both Vegas and New York are proceeding with rosters at less than full strength for the closing weeks of the season.
Nubin has remained a full-time starter during his second season with the Giants. The 2024 second-rounder’s campaign ends with 78 tackles and a pair of pass deflections, although he has struggled in coverage compared to his rookie year. Nubin, 24, has allowed a passer rating of 132.2 and four touchdowns as the nearest defender in 2025.
Davidson has totaled 47 appearances and four starts across his time in New York. The 26-year-old’s rookie contract is set to expire in March, so unlike the other players sidelined the rest of the way his attention will now turn to free agency. The Giants, meanwhile, will look elsewhere on the roster for Weeks 17 and 18.
Panthers Sign Isaiah Simmons To Active Roster, Place Trevin Wallace On IR
Isaiah Simmons is set to finish the season on Carolina’s active roster. The former top-10 pick has been signed from the Panthers’ practice squad, per a team announcement. 
Simmons has been a gameday elevation three times this season. As a result, he needed to be promoted to the active roster at some point to continue seeing game action down the stretch. With fellow linebacker Trevin Wallace done for the season, a clear path for Simmons to close out the year on the 53-man roster exists. In a corresponding move, Wallace has been moved to injured reserve.
Losing Wallace has left the Panthers without a starter at the second level of their defense. Claudin Cherelus is positioned to continue as a first-team presence alongside Christian Rozeboom for the final two weeks of the regular season and (if applicable) the playoffs. Carolina enters Sunday’s action atop the NFC South, and a win against the Seahawks coupled with a Buccaneers loss to the Dolphins would clinch the division.
Simmons has logged only one defensive snap during his three Panthers appearances in 2025. The 27-year-old has been a key presence on special teams, however, handling a 68% snap share in that regard. A similar workload can be expected moving forward as Carolina prepares for a contest in Seattle and a potential winner-take-all game against Tampa Bay depending on how this week’s results shake out.
Simmons was unable to find success at safety or linebacker during his time with the Cardinals. The Clemson product managed to handle a rotational defensive workload with the Giants for the 2023 and ’24 campaigns but joined the Packers this past offseason. After failing to survive roster cuts with Green Bay, Simmons remained on the open market until late November when he signed with Carolina. As a pending free agent, he will look to boost his value slightly in the closing weeks of the campaign.
Raiders’ Maxx Crosby Placed On IR, Will Undergo Meniscus Surgery
5:40pm: Crosby received two alternative opinions on his injury, Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer reports. Both of them indicated he could continue playing provided his pain threshold was high enough. Instead of delaying surgery (which was always going to be necessary) for another two weeks, Crosby’s attention will now turn to recovery.
2:52pm: One day after shutting down Maxx Crosby for the season, the Raiders announced that they have placed the star defensive end on injured reserve. Crosby will undergo a meniscus trim in the offseason, but he should recover quickly, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com.
As part of a lengthy statement, the Raiders said: “After deliberate and thorough consultation with multiple top medical professionals, it became clear that this decision is in the best interest of both the franchise and the player. Maxx is the ultimate warrior, and he has fought extremely hard to compete each week with his teammates since injuring his knee mid-season. We are grateful for his extraordinary contributions. He is a true Raider on and off the field — we look forward to his leadership and toughness into 2026 and beyond.”
Crosby was displeased with the Raiders on Friday after they informed him he wouldn’t play against the Giants on Sunday. The Raiders already sent their best offensive player, Brock Bowers, to IR earlier in the week ahead of a matchup between 2-13 teams. The loser will enter Week 18 in pole position to land the No. 1 pick in the 2026 draft. That doesn’t matter to Crosby.
“Yeah, I don’t give a s— about the pick, to be honest,” Crosby said earlier in the week. “I don’t play for that. That’s not my job. My job is to be the best defensive end in the world. Being a great leader, being an influence.”
Despite injuring his left knee in Week 7, Crosby logged perfect attendance in the Raiders’ first 15 games and earned his fifth Pro Bowl invitation. He’ll end his season with 73 tackles, 53 pressures and 10 sacks – his fourth double-digit total in seven years.
While Crosby would’ve liked to finish the season and build on those numbers, he underwent an MRI on Tuesday that showed his injury had persisted, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports. Worried about Crosby potentially suffering long-term damage, the Raiders are shelving him for the rest of the year. They addressed their concerns with him after that, per Schefter. Head coach Pete Carroll revealed he and Crosby spoke “four times” on Friday.
“I agree with him 1,000 percent on how he responded, and I [would have] responded the same way,” Carroll said of Crosby’s reaction to Friday’s news.
There’s some question as to whether Carroll will return for a second season in 2026. Regardless of whether that happens, the Raiders’ statement suggests they’re committed to keeping Crosby next year. Crosby was popular in trade rumors last offseason, but the Raiders put an end to those in handing him a three-year, $106.5MM extension with $91.5MM guaranteed in March. He’s under wraps through 2029 as a result.
With Crosby’s season officially over, the Raiders signed defensive end Jahfari Harvey from their practice squad to their active roster in a corresponding move. They also elevated running back Chris Collier and wide receiver Phillip Dorsett from their taxi squad.
Minor NFL Transactions: 12/27/25
Here are today’s minor moves and standard gameday practice squad elevations for the penultimate weekend of the regular season:
Baltimore Ravens
- Activated from IR: LB Jay Higgins IV
Buffalo Bills
- Signed from practice squad: TE Keleki Latu
- Elevated: K Michael Badgley, DE Andre Jones Jr.
- Waived: WR Mecole Hardman Jr.
Chicago Bears
- Activated from IR: G Luke Newman
- Elevated: CB Dallis Flowers, WR JP Richardson
- Waived: DT Jonathan Ford
Cincinnati Bengals
- Elevated: DT Howard Cross III, CB Bralyn Lux
Cleveland Browns
- Elevated: TE Sal Cannella, QB Bailey Zappe
Green Bay Packers
- Elevated: TE Drake Dabney, QB Clayton Tune
Indianapolis Colts
- Activated from IR: WR Ashton Dulin
- Signed from practice squad: DT Chris Wormley
- Elevated: C Jimmy Morrissey, G Josh Sills
- Placed on IR: WR Anthony Gould, TE Andrew Ogletree
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Elevated: G Jerome Carvin, S Juan Thornhill
Miami Dolphins
- Activated from IR: OL Andrew Meyer
- Signed from practice squad: WR Theo Wease Jr.
- Placed on IR: WR Dee Eskridge, CB Isaiah Johnson, DT Benito Jones
- Elevated: LB Derrick McLendon, OL Josh Priebe
New Orleans Saints
- Elevated: WR Ronnie Bell, TE Treyton Welch
New York Giants
- Signed from practice squad: DE Elijah Chatman, C Bryan Hudson, S Raheem Layne, K Ben Sauls
- Elevated: TE Zach Davidson, RE Dante Miller
New York Jets
- Signed from practice squad: CB Tre Brown, G Marquis Hayes, WR Quentin Skinner
- Elevated: QB Hendon Hooker
Philadelphia Eagles
- Elevated: CB Brandon Johnson
Pittsburgh Steelers
- Elevated: T Jack Driscoll, CB D’Shawn Jamison
San Francisco 49ers
- Elevated: LB Eric Kendricks, TE Brayden Willis
Seattle Seahawks
- Elevated: RB Cam Akers, T Amari Kight
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Elevated: OLB Jason Pierre-Paul
Tennessee Titans
- Elevated: CB Kemon Hall
- Placed on IR: CB Marcus Harris
With Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox both dealing with injuries, the Bills add Latu to the 53-man roster for depth. To make room, Buffalo has parted ways with the veteran, Hardman, just a week after activating him from injured reserve.
A number of players are being called up as standard gameday practice squad elevations for the third and final time on their current contracts. This is the case for Flowers in Chicago, Zappe in Cleveland, Sills in Indianapolis, Driscoll in Pittsburgh, and Kight in Seattle. If their respective teams wish to see them appear in another game this year, they will need to be signed to the 53-man roster, as was done with Wormley in Indianapolis and Chatman in New York this week after they exhausted their three elevations already this year.
NFL Practice Squad Updates: 12/27/25
Here is Saturday’s only practice squad transaction:
Denver Broncos
- Signed: RB Cody Schrader
The Broncos claimed Schrader off waivers from the Rams, with whom he appeared in one game in each of his first two seasons. The Mizzou-product was waived before Denver’s Christmas Day game but stays with the Broncos via a taxi squad deal.